Entry posted by mikelink45 ·
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Twins Video
I am back from guiding a hiking trip in Michigan where I got to watch the Detroit Tigers play a few games against the Cardinals - fun to see Gardenhire. As I watched their struggles to find the right Outfielders for the future I was interested in the various players that they put in and how each had different potentials and strengths. But it got me thinking about the Twins. For the last two years we have been led to think of the outfield as Rosario/Buxton/Kepler. But is it those three for the future?
I know we have had LaMarre and Field out there during the year and they do not excite me. We have used Adrianza in the OF as well as Astudillo, and Taylor Motter. Logan Morrison was even in the OF for two games. And of course we have had Jake Cave and Robbie Grossman playing extensively in the OF.
No minor leaguers were brought up this fall to get any MLB time in the OF but Wade seems like a candidate and eventually we will have more minor leaguers move up to challenge I hope. But what is the immediate future - the next two years? Who will be have out there when we turn the corner?
Start with the Big Three
- Byron Buxton has had a lost year. He is 24 and has been with the team for parts of 4 years. His defense is out of this world, his slash line for the four years is 230/285/387 and we all know the drama that was 2018. 6.8 WAR
- Eddie Rosario seems to be the one who stepped up this year, leading the team in all the batting categories and playing a steady, if unspectacular OF. In his four years he has a slash line of 280/312/471. 8.6 WAR
- Max Kepler has not regressed, he has not progressed, he is not a star, is he a starter? His slash for the same four years is 235/314/421 and he has an accumulated WAR of 6.7.
Before looking at other options - if I take the lazy route and just add and average these three players we would have an OF with a 248/303/408 slash and 1.8 WAR. Not good enough for a team that wants to be a champion.
The two players on the team that look like our next OF candidates - Sorry Adrianza and Astudillo - are Grossman and Cave. Two players who elicit very different responses from TD fans.
- Robbie Grossman has been our number 4 OF for three years and has played in 331 games (DH and 1B included). His slash line for MN 262/365/397 which is actually a good line for a number 4 if we do not consider his OF range and defense.
- Jake Cave is our find of the year, after Motter and LaMarre and numerous other dumpster dives we were able to get Cave out of the Yankees and he has produced. 265/311/487 slash and 1.7 WAR for 76 games. He hustles and looks good but his fielding is not as good as some might claim. In the long run, when it comes to defense, Buxton has no worries.
That is five players for starting and bench. Are they the right five and in the right order? The 40 man roster still has Zack Granite who had a lost year and Johnny Field.
- Granite earned 0.3 WAR in 93 ABs in 2017 and played better CF than all but Buxton. In 2018 he played in 68 games before ending his year with injury. He batted 211/282/245, He is 25 years old.
- Johnny Field has been in 13 games so far with a slash line of 071/100/171. If we look at his entire 2018 year he has 75 games and 193/231/330. I hope to not see him on the 40 next year.
The next question is who is in the minors who might be up soon? MLB.com has a top 30 for each team - http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2018?list=min Our number two is Alex Kiriloff - how long before he comes up - will it be in the next two years? If he does Kepler better watch out because RF is his best position. Trever Larnach is in his first year, but already prospect #6. Too early to project him as a Twin. Akil Baddoo is #12 and so far has been a CF player. LaMonte Wade is #13 and seems the most ready for 2019.
- LaMonte Wade Age 24 has a minor league slash of 257/360/380 reminiscent of Grossman, but better in the field. He does not have power, but controls the plate.
- Alex Kiriloff is moving so fast he cannot be left out of the discussion for 2019 and definitely should be looked at for 2020. 348/392/578 is a slash line that cannot be ignored. Yes he is young, but you might notice that Atlanta and the Nationals both had players as young as him starting in their OFs this year.
- Akil Baddoo is 20, but could move fast and be a factor in 2020. 243/351/419.
- Trevor Larnach is 21, but is in his first year - 303/390/500 is an impressive start - 2020 is an outside possibility if the Twins are aggressive.
- Gilberto Celestino - just 19. He is our #14 prospect but should not be in this two year window.
- Gabriel Maciel is also just 19 and ranked #17. At least three years away.
- Luke Raley can play 1B or OF and is ranked #19. 275/350/471 He has the advantage of being someone the FO traded for - he is one of theirs and is considered a Grinder - Molitor will like that.
- Jacob Pearson is the last OF ranked in the top 30 Twins Prospects - He is age 20 with the Kernels this year and should be three years away.
So that is the assortment we can work with in our system. Not counting more dumpster diving the following are Free Agent OFs for 2018.
- Bryce Harper - forget it
- Adam Jones - Not worth it
- Brett Gardner - he is already 35
- Nick Markakis - he too is 35
- Carlos Gonsalves - 33 coming from the light air of CO
- Michael Brantley - 32 - it would be nice to take him from Cleveland
- Steven Pearce - 36 - no thanks
- Lonnie Chisenhall - 30 - another Indian on the market
- Matt Joyce - 35. NO NO NO
- Curtis Granderson - 38, another old man, no thanks
- Carlos Gomez - 33, no we have already had him once
- Marwin Gonsalves - 30 - from Houston, interesting player.
- Cameron Maybin - 30 - nope
- Jon Jay - 34 - no interest
- Chris Young - 35, Angels, no
- Rajai Davis - 38 - another Cleveland OF - we could fill up with these guys, but no thanks
- Leonys Martin - 31, Guess which team - you Cleveland
- Gregor Blanco - 35 from SF. I say no to any over 32.
- Shane Robinson - 34 - Yankees
- Eric Young - 34 - Angels
- Brandon Barnes - 33- ANOTHER INDIAN!
- Jose Bautista - 38 - yes 38, no
- Austin Jackson 32 from the Mets
- Ben Revere - 31 - No retreads
- Some more with no resume, no interest on the list!
Now comes the hard part - arrange them as you would like - this is the order I expect:
2019
- Rosario
- Cave
- Kepler
- Buxton
- Grossman
- Raley
2020
- Rosario
- Kiriloff
- Cave
- Buxton
- Raley
- Baddoo
Where is Kepler, Wade...I expect trades. I would rather have Wade that Grossman in 2019, but I do not see the Twins making that move, I see him traded before being rostered. I am trying to guess at the Twins as much as looking at what I would like to see.
Have at it.
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