3balls2strikes

It's no secret that Minnesota has struggled in recent months with mounting injuries and replacement-level players trying to keep the Twins in the AL Central race. August was one of Minnesota's worst offensive months of the season, with a .385 SLG and a .701 OPS. Things haven't improved since the calendar turned to September, with the team hitting .251/.307/.377 (.684) entering play this weekend. 

Many of the team's offensive struggles are tied to the players the Twins have been forced to use in September. The team assumed Trevor Larnach would be back in the line-up, but his recovery has taken longer than expected. Minnesota's current corner outfield options include Max Kepler, Nick Gordon, Gilberto Celestino, Jake Cave, and Kyle Garlick. All of those players can succeed if used in favorable match-ups, but one of the team's best offensive options has been destroying the ball at Triple-A. 

In his age-24 season, Matt Wallner started the year at Double-A, where he destroyed the ball over his first 78 games. He hit .299/.436/.597 (1.033) while being slightly younger than the average age of the competition in the Texas League. At midseason, he was elected to the Futures Game, and he showcased his power with a home run during the game. Many national outlets started to notice, and he rose on prospect rankings. On their midseason list, MLB Pipeline named Wallner the fifth best prospect in the Twins organization. 

Shortly after the Futures Game, Minnesota promoted Wallner to Triple-A, and there were a few struggles with the transition. In his first ten games, he went 4-for-38 (.105 BA) with no extra-base hits and 16 strikeouts. From there, he started to find his swing. In 39 games from August 2-September 15, he hit .289/.414/.564 (.978) with 17 doubles, three triples, and six home runs. Wallner was also able to record the first cycle in Saints' history. 
As a left-handed hitter, the Twins may not have a perfect spot for Wallner to slide into the line-up and get regular playing time. Many of the team's other outfield options are left-handed, but Wallner has found success against righties and lefties this season. During 2022, Wallner has posted a .949 OPS against right-handed pitchers and a .979 OPS against left-handed hurlers. He's also done this while facing older pitchers in nearly 72% of his plate appearances. His bat seems ready for the big-league level, but the team isn't calling him up.
Some might argue that the Twins are playing a service time game with Wallner, but the team is in contention, and his bat can help. As a college draftee, Minnesota will have team control over Wallner for the prime of his career, so service time shouldn't be an issue. The team also has players on the bench, like Caleb Hamilton and Billy Hamilton, that aren't getting regular playing time. Wallner can help the Twins, and he should already be on the roster.
Do you think the Twins will call up Wallner? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 
 

Coming into the season, off of a long lockout, the Minnesota Twins were not seen as favorites. Even after signing a superstar in Carlos Correa, the questions about pitching remained. Yes, Sonny Gray was acquired, but Kenta Maeda was expected to be out most of the year, and a young duo in Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober were expected to carry the load. Bullpen questions remained, and only Joe Smith was brought in to answer them.
After a mediocre first month, Rocco Baldelli had his guys clicking through May. Maybe the one period of relative health throughout the whole season, Minnesota’s manager orchestrated an 18-12 record. It’s been .500 or worse each month since then, and despite the initial expectations, it’s hard to suggest they weren’t raised after Derek Falvey and Thad Levine provided reinforcements at the deadline.
Whether Minnesota claws back and makes the postseason or not, the manager has plenty to sort through this season.
Baldelli has now managed more than 500 games for Minnesota and has accumulated a winning record. His win percentage is .533, well above Ron Gardenhire’s .484, Paul Molitor’s .471, or Tom Kelly’s .478. The Twins have won the division twice during his four-year tenure, and they should be seen as a candidate to do so again in 2023.
It’s not fair to chalk 2022 up as a wash entirely because of injuries. Baldelli has consistently operated with half of his deck, but there’s been ample opportunity to provide better results. It’s probably worth wondering how things would have gone if Minnesota had seen even a slightly better outcome in terms of the guys they’ve lost to injury. It’s also not fair to suggest Baldelli has failed given the hurdles he’s had to clear.
Ultimately a front office wants a manager to be their representative of process in the clubhouse. I think it’s safe to say that Baldelli is in lockstep with his bosses. It’s also more than evident that Baldelli gets along with his players, and has their respect as well. Both of those realities are integral when deciding to keep someone in the position. Unlike Molitor before him, it seems that Baldelli is able to effectively communicate with the guys on the field, and is able to get buy-in when wanting players to try new things.
If the Twins were to change course, it probably would have a ripple effect throughout the clubhouse, and that sort of shakeup may not be beneficial given the youth expected to produce in 2023 and beyond. Consistency among leadership can be viewed as a positive, and Baldelli has already connected with so many that will take on larger roles in the years ahead.
Should Minnesota make a move, and I think there's an opportunity for them to do so, it will come throughout the coaching staff as a whole. Maybe there's opportunity to shore up baserunning or generate a secondary voice in the clubhouse. Pete Maki has been fine in Wes Johnson’s position, but a more established pitching coach makes sense as well. At times throughout this season, it’s seemed the clubhouse needed a more vocal leader to beg for accountability or change. While that’s not Baldelli’s demeanor and isn’t really that of Correa or Byron Buxton, it could be that of a performance coach or someone tabbed with the background solely to rise to the occasion.
We’ll see changes this offseason, there will be more than a few on the coaching staff, but I think it’s safe to say the front office should and will retain their manager.

The above graph plots the results for every major league team against the five opponents currently on pace for more than 95 wins: Yankees, Astros, Dodgers, Braves, and Mets. The x-axis is win percentage in those games and the y-axis is run difference per game. A few notes:
The Twins were far and away the worst team in the league against this set of teams with a 0.11 win percentage, going 2-16. Those losses were well-earned, with an average run difference of -3.67. In-division foes Detroit, Cleveland, Kansas City, and the White Sox will have played an almost identical schedule to the Twins, so comparisons between them are particularly appropriate. Even the lowly Tigers and gutted Royals have outperformed the Twins against the class of the league. The Twins' current deficit in the division can be attributed to their performance in these games. By contrast to the Twins' 2-16, the Guardians are a respectable 6-10 and the White Sox are 7-10. A similar performance from the hometown nine would have the Twins comfortably in first place in the AL Central. Luckily, none of the power five are divisional foes, so the Twins will still have a chance to squeak into the playoffs. We are all hoping for another shot at the Yankees or Astros in October. Right?

The Minnesota Twins have done an admirable job getting as much use out of Byron Buxton in 2022 as possible, even leading the star centerfielder to an All-Star berth. Still, with injuries continuing to pile up, the team sought a second opinion after Buxton’s recent trip to the IL. The results aren’t pretty, but they aren't surprising.
“Byron Buxton has adult-onset Evel Knievelism,” said Dr. Nicole Baumhardt, a physician at Johns Hopkins.
This incredibly rare condition usually affects only those who jump motorcycles over things and plummet to the unforgiving asphalt, or people who’ve appeared on more than one season of MTV’s Jackass.
It's named after Robert Craig “Evel” Knievel, a popular stuntman from the 1960s and ‘70s. He’s perhaps best known for failing to land a sick jump over the Caesars Palace fountains in Las Vegas, breaking his pelvis, femur, hip, wrist, and both ankles. Baumhardt says she wishes this was all that was hurting Buxton.
“All of Byron’s bones are broken,” said Baumhardt. “In addition, he has extra bones that the human body isn’t supposed to have, bones we’ve never seen. Those are also broken.
“The ligaments that aren’t torn are ruptured. The ligaments that aren’t ruptured are torn. He has diseases that were only on episodes of Little House on the Prairie. We put him in an iron lung and the iron lung fell down a very long flight of stairs with him in it, rebreaking his broken bones harder. We placed him in a full body cast and there is now a wasps’ nest under his right arm, leading to very painful welts. He has COVID-20. You don’t even want to know what that is.”
“We’ll continue managing (Byron’s) rest,” said Twins manager Rocco Baldelli. “He’s going to need a day off here and there, but we still hope he can contribute to our playoff drive. The league says his body cast is technically a uniform if we put a name and number on it, which helps.
“The tough part is that he just got into the trainer’s room and a piano fell on him. We don’t know how a piano ended up in there, but it just up and tipped over on him, rebreaking the rebroken bones that were already broken. He might be a go on Sunday, but we’ll have to wait and see how he responds to treatment or if any other large, heavy objects smash his unique slurry of bone and muscle yet again. Until then, our other guys have to step up.”
Image license here.

Emilio Pagan was very good for the Tampa Bay Rays in 2019. He hasn’t been since. In two seasons with the Padres, Pagan posted a 4.75 ERA alongside a 5.09 FIP. He was striking out more than a batter per inning, but he was allowing more homers than a batting practice soft-tosser. Unfortunately, nothing has changed with the Minnesota Twins.
After another blown save, and loss, against the Los Angeles Angels over the weekend, Pagan owns a career worst 5.10 ERA. It’s backed by a 4.63 FIP and while he’s got a solid 12.8 K/9, he is again allowing 2.1 HR/9 and is issuing a career worst 3.8 BB/9. In short, every time he comes out, disaster looms.
Rocco Baldelli has looked to pick his spots with Pagan. While he was originally penciled in as the Twins closer, Pagan quickly worked himself down the pecking order in one of baseball’s worst bullpens. With an overhaul needed at the trade deadline, both Jorge Lopez and Michael Fulmer were brought into the fold. Pagan has since been relegated to low-leverage spots, while occasionally finding himself with an opportunity to ruin a game.
On the season he is responsible for six losses and seven blown saves. Having contributed just nine saves on the season, he’s ultimately contributed far more negative value than anything else. He has been worth -0.3 fWAR, and his -0.94 win probability added (WPA) is nearly a career low. For a Twins team that’s threading the needle in an American League Central division begging for a winner, one pitcher being this bad ultimately has held them back.
Part of the allure in acquiring Pagan was that he presented Minnesota with future opportunity. He’s under team control for another year, and is just 31-years-old. It’s worth questioning if he should be here now though, rather than even considering a arbitration-induced contract for 2023.
Ultimately the Twins continue to give Pagan chances because he has stuff that should play. His 95.6 mph fastball has never been more powerful, and his 14.5% whiff rate is near a career high. He also induces chases at over 34% this season, a career high. That combination should result in something far more positive than it has. The issue is that Pagan has not been able to show ability despite the stuff.
Both Pagan’s xFIP and xERA are far better than the results have bore out thus far, but the caveat to expected stats is that they don’t matter until they’re actualized. Pagan has cost the Twins more than a handful of games at this point, and it’s hard to attribute any where he has actually been the reason they won. This organization can continue to keep hoping what may play out will happen, or they can cut the losses and try to salvage things where they stand now.
Maybe the next organization claiming Pagan figures out the trick that San Diego and Minnesota missed on, or maybe Pagan just will never be anything close to what his abilities suggest are possible. Either way, the longer the Twins wait to find out, the more dire their season gets.
 

Box Score
Tyler Mahle: 6 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 6 K
Home Runs: Gilberto Celestino (1), Gio Urshela (11)
Top 3 WPA: Tyler Mahle (.332), Gilberto Celestino (.196), Gio Urshela (.096)
Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs)

When the Twins acquired Tyler Mahle at the deadline, they likely envisioned him in a situation like this: working as the stopper in a crucial game down the stretch. He did not disappoint. The freshly-minted Twin commanded the ball with precision, striking out six batters over six shutout innings, with a handful of baserunners scattered around. Unlike his outing against Toronto, when the Blue Jays jumped on him late, Mahle fought back against the third-time-through-the-order frenzy and walked off the mound with a spotless ERA. Sure, maybe throwing six scoreless innings against an Angels lineup missing the golden boy isn’t as impressive as when John F. Kennedy negotiated the Russians out of world destruction, but it does have to count for something. 
There are few guarantees in baseball; the sport thrives on chaotic, slimly un-random outcomes that provide the game intrigue—in what other sporting event can Kirk Nieuwenhuis hit three homers in a game? But there are some laws. Patrick Sandoval does not give up homers, and Gilberto Celestino does not hit them. Sandoval—the one of the lesser panda variety—had allowed just four balls to leave the park in 95 innings this season. Celestino—rumored to be incapable of pulling the ball with any authority—has yet to hit one this season. The outfielder owns two career homers—this author observed one in person—but power is not his forte. It is an impossibility that Celestino could hit a home run off Sandoval.
Anyways, the scoring started when Celestino hit a homer off Sandoval.
The game trudged on; the Twins occasionally threatened to score more, placing runners in ideal positions before failing to knock them in. A guy would walk; another one would leave him stranded on the bases, and the cycle repeated with dull consistency as the offense sputtered and whined. Sandy León found an occupied glove when steaming home. Gio Urshela broke through the stalemate with a solo homer in the 6th inning. 
Urshela’s bat proved to be sorely needed, as his hits directly led to three of the Twins’ runs on Friday. It wasn’t the only active run engine, however; Jose Miranda doubled to right-center field in the 8th inning and trotted home after Luis Arraez poked a single beyond Jared Walsh’s grasp. 
The new Twins bullpen triumvirate demonstrated their power; Michael Fulmer pitched a clean, scoreless 7th inning, carrying the shutout for at least one more frame. Jhoan Duran—still as hilariously dominant as always—melted a few faces for a clean 8th inning, setting the stage for the grand finale: Jorge López. López allowed a hit but found the time to catch Jo Adell window-shopping; Walsh grounded out to end the game.
 
What’s Next?
The Twins will play the Angels in another late-night matchup; Dylan Bundy will face off against Reid Detmers.
Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet

The Twins entered their three-game series finale against the Royals on Sunday with a three-game winning streak they wanted to extend to four. Bailey Ober was on the mound for his first start since April 28 when he was pulled in the fourth inning with a groin injury. Ober pitched five quality innings in his return allowing only four base runners and one run in his five innings of work. 
Royals starter Brady Singer kept the Twins to two hits and one walk to Gilberto Celestino through the Twins first two times through the lineup. The walk to Celestino began the Twins best scoring opportunity all afternoon. 
Having only three total base runners through 5 1/3 innings, the Twins had their first opportunity to get runners into scoring position after Celestino’s walk and Luis Arraez’s second hit of the day. Following Arraez’s single, Polanco drew a full count that led to a walk and the Twins having the bases loaded for Max Kepler.
Kepler drew an 0-1 count in his at-bat and connected for a swinging bunt close enough for Royals third baseman Emmanuel Rivera to get the force out at home and keep the Royals lead at 1-0. Gary Sanchez followed up Kepler’s fielder's choice with a fly out to left field that ended the Twins first big chance to score in the game. 
Following a failed opportunity to score in the top half of the sixth, the Royals offense took off against Twins reliever Yennier Cano who surrendered five runs off of four hits and two walks and was yanked out of the game after recording only out as the Royals lead extended to 6-0. 
Trevor Megill then came into the game for Cano to get the final two outs in the bottom of the sixth making his season and Twins debut. Megill allowed one base runner on a fielder's choice but got the Twins out of the jam on a strike out and flyout to Kepler in deep right field. 
In the top of the seventh, the Twins again had an opportunity to score after a Nick Gordon triple that fell a few feet short of clearing the stands. Again, the Twins failed to get Gordon home on the triple and the game was still scoreless going into the top of the eighth. 
The Twins bats finally woke up in the top of the eighth as they scored two runs off four straight hits from Celestino, Arraez, Polanco and Kepler. The bats did not stop there in the top of the eighth. Gary Sanchez drove in a run on a sacrifice fly that scored Polanco and after being hitless all game. Kyle Garlick hit a home run off of righty Scott Barlow to bring the Twins back into the game with the score 6-5.
As Celestino began the second round of the lineup in the eighth, he was walked by Barlow to load the bases up for Arraez. Coming into the at-bat 3-4 for the day, Arraez was poised to make the Twins comeback complete. However, that didn’t end up being the case as some questionable strike calls caught Arraez looking to end the Twins eighth-inning run. 
Even after a dismal strikeout to Arraez, the Twins came back again in the top of the ninth to threaten with runners on second and third and nobody out for Gary Sanchez. Sanchez worked the count to 2-2 and smacked another sacrifice fly to tie the game at six apiece. 
Trevor Larnach was cold at the plate in his return from the IL and continued that in the top of the ninth. There was at least a wild pitch in his at-bat to advance Kepler to third. Garlick followed up with a walk putting runners on the corners with two outs for Gio Urshela’s first at-bat of the afternoon. 
Urshela would only need the one at-bat to contribute for the Twins Sunday as he hit an RBI single that scored Max Kepler for the game-winning run.
Jhoan Duran came in for Twins to close out the game in the ninth for his third save opportunity of his young career. Duran completed a one, two, three ninth to give the Twins the win and set their winning streak to four straight. 

What’s Next? 
The Twins return home Monday night to start a seven game home stand and three game series against the cellar dwelling Detroit Tigers. Chris Archer will make the start for the Twins and the Tigers have yet to announce their own starter for Monday night.  
Postgame Interview