Article: Eddie Rosario as a Trade Chip

[Nick Nelson]

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=2329-Eddie-Rosario-as-a-Trade-Chip

[Shane Wahl]

I like that you open the discussion with really the top prospect for any possible trade consideration. That is good.

 

Now, I don't want to trade Rosario AT ALL. But I like that you wrote this article.

 

Rosario and Dozier = a nice problem, but somewhat easily remedied.

 

Rosario and Dozier together somehow (SS reps IMMEDIATELY for Dozier by the way) makes for a grade addition to Buxton-Mauer-Sano-Arcia.

 

I would rather consider Danny Santana and Travis Harrison together as trade bait. Only with real falters above will these two emerge as Twins. Beresford and Dalton Hicks might really just be kinda better, and at least better in the roles that they could fill down the road for the Twins.

 

I have to wonder what the market would be for a combo of Santana, Harrison, and say Swarzak would be. Or sub Doumit in for Swarzak.

[howieramone1406390264]

I would not put Rosario on our untouchable list. If we can find a major league ready starting pitcher who will make it to Target Field in 2014 I would pull the trigger. It takes quality to get quality. If we can trade Rosario to help fill the black hole, I'd do it in a heartbeat.

[clutterheart]

My goodness this is premature

 

Don't you think we should see if Dozier is for real before trading away a cheaper, younger replacement?

 

Furthermore, this club does not have many Corner OF prospects in the upper minors.

Willingham will not be around in 2015, Parmelee has not been too productive. Rosario is an athletic Leftie who can play any position in the OF and 2B. He is 22 years old and hit 284/ .330 / 412 in AA. If Ryan was blown away by an offer? Sure. But to shop him would be nuts.

[Shane Wahl]

Uh, again. Maybe Santana and Harrison?

[pierre75275]

I would trade him. For one pitcher. Some one who grades out between meyer and gibson and currently pitches in AA or AAA. Somebody like archie bradly or dylan bundy or tj walker (seattle).

[Kwak]

Without knowing all of the details of any trade how can you assess it? I would think that a trade of Dozier would fetch more than Rosario--especially in a multi-player deal.

[howieramone1406390264]

Uh, again. Maybe Santana and Harrison?

 

Shane, as a rule of thumb, whoever gets the best player wins. Neither of those two will be anywhere close to the starting pitcher we need. If we could add one of those two to The Hammer or Doumit deals I think that might work. I believe we will have an excess of relief pitchers in the near future. I could see adding one of those two in a Fien or Burton trade for a starting pitching prospect.

[iastfan112]

Love Dozier have been an advocate going back to the BYTO days but I think it's probably still too premature to trade Rosario, barring the Twins getting some absolutely great return. Dozier is hardly proven at this point. Prospect for prospect trading is pretty unusual so that's a negative as well.

 

I'm in the move Dozier back to SS camp, it didn't seem that Dozier was physically incapable of handling SS last year but instead it was more on the mental side of things. I'd also suggest that if such a move was not possible Dozier might be the better guy to trade, albeit sometime next season. Most contenders would favor Dozier's track record of success(assuming it continues next year) over the relative uncertainty of Rosario as an unproven prospect. For the Twins this trade isn't terrible either as the last years of Dozier's arbitration will be when he's north of 30 and likely in the beginning of his decline while only getting more expensive.

[jimbo92107]

A bit premature. A year from now we'll have a better idea if Meyer, Gibson and May are improving, if some of our "contact" pitchers are slightly better than average, if Dozier's improvements stick, if Hicks learns how to bat over .220, etc. Only then will it be interesting to speculate on trading guys like Rosario for pitching.

[jokin]

Shane, as a rule of thumb, whoever gets the best player wins. Neither of those two will be anywhere close to the starting pitcher we need. If we could add one of those two to The Hammer or Doumit deals I think that might work. I believe we will have an excess of relief pitchers in the near future. I could see adding one of those two in a Fien or Burton trade for a starting pitching prospect.

 

Hard to fathom that there is even one club in all of baseball that would foolishly give up a legitimate starting prospect for any combination of Hammer/Doumit and Fien/Burton and Santana/Harrison. You could maybe get a deal with these players involved for a salary relief deal from a club with an overpayed veteran starter who is a bounceback possibility.

 

And that misses the point of the thread, which is what to do with the one valuable prospect chip that is considered somewhat expendable by the OP>>>

Do you try to trade for Rosario for a similar-level (AA/AAA) high-potential, but unproven, prospect SP? Or try to get an established ace by trading Rosario in a package to someone like the Rays (Shields to KC), who are already actively shopping Price? In the case of Price, like Shields to KC, the Twins would only get his services guaranteed for 2 years, and they would be hard-pressed to come up with the other necessary pieces for the Rays to consider the trade (the Twins can't trade Sano and Buxton in this type of 2-year player rental scenario!). I doubt that throwing in Arcia and Plouffe (Rays may need a First Baseman if they don't re-sign Loney) would interest them. You would probably have to package Meyer and Rosario in some multi-player deal to get it done- and still provide some salary relief to the Rays (ala Wade Davis in the Shields deal).

[Larsbars08]

Dozier has had a great year, but his lefty/righty splits are pretty drastic. I'm worried that we'll lose a lot of his value if his triple slash numbers against lefties aren't quite as impressive in the next year or two. I'm not sure if I'm ready to trust Dozier as the occasional offensive force he's been this year.

 

Rosario has been a much better performer in the minors at a much younger age than Dozier was, with the exception Dozier's breakout year at age 24. Point being, that Rosario has a much higher offensive ceiling than Dozier does, and it feels way too premature to speculate on a trade, when we can't be sure that Dozier will sustain his numbers. The fact that Dozier has been very good this year, allows the Twins to be patient with Rosario. He'll be 22 and still very much a prospect next year. He can spend much of the year at AAA next year, and looks to be a likely September call-up next year.

 

If we really need to trade someone, why not dangle Dozier when Rosario is getting ready. Dozier probably would net a nice return, and he's also a "proven" commodity, compared to Rosario. Plus, minor-leaguers being swapped for other minor-leaguers is pretty rare.

[iastfan112]

Hard to fathom that there is even one club in all of baseball that would foolishly give up a legitimate starting prospect for any combination of Hammer/Doumit and Fien/Burton and Santana/Harrison. You could maybe get a deal with these players involved for a salary relief deal from a club with an overpayed veteran starter who is a bounceback possibility.

 

This offseason I agree. If Willingham bounces back next year a combo of Willingham + Burton and strikeout reliever could net a nice prospect. Carlos Beltran alone netted a prospect ranked somewhere in the 40's. Admittedly Willingham isn't quite as appealing but the combination probably could, under the right conditions net a prospect close to or in the late part of the top 100.

[Trevor0333]

Find a team needing major league ready SS & 2B, send Florimon & Dozier to a 3rd team as part of a 3 way trade to get prospects the Rangers desire in return for Jurickson Profar. Obviously The Twins would likely have to add another prospect as well Like Edy or Gonsalves types.

 

Sano/Profar/Rosario the infield is loaded for 10 years.

[howieramone1406390264]

Hard to fathom that there is even one club in all of baseball that would foolishly give up a legitimate starting prospect for any combination of Hammer/Doumit and Fien/Burton and Santana/Harrison. You could maybe get a deal with these players involved for a salary relief deal from a club with an overpayed veteran starter who is a bounceback possibility.

 

And that misses the point of the thread, which is what to do with the one valuable prospect chip that is considered somewhat expendable by the OP>>>

Do you try to trade for Rosario for a similar-level (AA/AAA) high-potential, but unproven, prospect SP? Or try to get an established ace by trading Rosario in a package to someone like the Rays (Shields to KC), who are already actively shopping Price? In the case of Price, like Shields to KC, the Twins would only get his services guaranteed for 2 years, and they would be hard-pressed to come up with the other necessary pieces for the Rays to consider the trade (the Twins can't trade Sano and Buxton in this type of 2-year player rental scenario!). I doubt that throwing in Arcia and Plouffe (Rays may need a First Baseman if they don't re-sign Loney) would interest them. You would probably have to package Meyer and Rosario in some multi-player deal to get it done- and still provide some salary relief to the Rays (ala Wade Davis in the Shields deal).

 

We got a legitimate starting pitching prospect for Butera.

[raindog]

I'm agree with those saying it's too early to worry about this "problem". Dozier's bat may not hold up next year, Rosario could falter, and I don't think the Twins are exactly stacked with corner outfielders. I could definitely see Rosario shifting to the outfield, for a little while at least.

 

But since we're talking about it, I'd rather trade Dozier if the time comes. If Rosario is banging on the door next year, I'll take his higher upside and four extra years of youth. I do not think Dozier is a SS.

[Zephrin]

If we really need to trade someone, why not dangle Dozier when Rosario is getting ready. Dozier probably would net a nice return, and he's also a "proven" commodity, compared to Rosario. Plus, minor-leaguers being swapped for other minor-leaguers is pretty rare.

 

This is the way I would go, too, unless Dozier can switch back to SS. Hearken back to 2003, where we had a very solid catcher in A.J., but a clearly superior option developing in Mauer. We got a very nice haul for A.J. as I recall. Similar situation with Morneau/Dougie.

 

Also, teams are probably willing to give up a solid pitching prospect for Dozier than any of the other MLB names I've seen in comments to this point - Doumit, Burton and the like.

[TheLeviathan]

I know sacrifices will have to be made....I'd just like it not to be the first legit middle infield prospect since Knoblauch. At least not until we're 100% sure Dozier and Rosario can't play SS/2B together.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I love the idea but think it's premature for a few reasons:

 

1. I don't think Rosario's value has peaked. Teams will still be uncertain whether he's a second baseman and while he's young at AA, he didn't exactly light up the league with his bat. I think another go at AA and more time at second will see his value continue to rise.

 

2. I'm pretty sold on Dozier at this point but even I admit that there's a chance he's having a freakish season that cannot be repeated. I really don't think that's the case and the stats back me up but I still believe it's a mistake to trade away a middle infielder before knowing you have a solution at second base moving forward.

[Steve Penz]

This is a great idea but too early. This will be an awesome topic in June 2014.

[big dog]

Don't you think we should see if Dozier is for real before trading away a cheaper, younger replacement?

 

Alternatively, maybe we should see if Rosario is for real before we trade Dozier. But if we want to improve pitching, a trade would really help. If we trade Dozier, we are further committing to Mauer and a bunch of 24-25-yr-olds. I'm not so sure about that plan.

[big dog]

We got a very nice haul for A.J. as I recall. Similar situation with Morneau/Dougie.

 

True on AJ, but we got an injured LH pitcher who did nothing whatsoever for Dougie. We basically traded him for an open roster spot.

[Tuba]

I'm not sure that I trust one good year, Valencia had one good year, Diamond has one good year, Plouffe had an okay year. If you trade Rosario and Dozier has a Valencia like regression then what? What's the rest of our 2B depth like?

[Oldgoat_MN]

I'm in the camp that says it's too early.

 

But Rosario would be the one who could really bring something back. His stats are impressive for his age. The position flexibility is attractive, too.

 

Pretty unfair that he's in the same program with the #1 and #3 rated prospects in baseball. He would get a lot more attention if he was playing in any other organization.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I'm not sure that I trust one good year, Valencia had one good year, Diamond has one good year, Plouffe had an okay year.

 

Valencia got lucky and many were predicting a step backward. Maybe not a giant leap and then fall-on-his-face backward step, but regression none-the-less.

 

Plouffe was only good for ~45 days. The rest of his season was bad. Not even mediocre, just bad.

 

On the other hand, Dozier actually looks like the player we were told about in the minors. Steady hands, solid glove, good strike zone judgment. The only surprising thing is the power, which might decline next season. To boot, Brian's BABIP is quite a bit lower than expected, particularly for his style of play. He's not a speedster but he's not slow, either. Any downtick in power has a good chance of being balanced by an uptick in average and OBP.

[Mike Sixel]

Look, I am also not 100% convinced on Dozier.......but being afraid to trade Rosario shows what I think TR is thinking also, and then you are left with a bunch of terrible pitchers and the highest ERA in the game. This is a perfect example of what Oakland or TB would do differently, they would deal Dozier this year, while his value is at its peak, and get prospects.....Me, I'd deal one of them and get a legit pitcher (if that offer is out there). Unless you think the Twins are going to get Tanaka, dealing one of these guys for an expensive starter that someone doesn't want to pay is the most likely way to get a legit starter for next year and the next few years after that.

[Twinsoholic]

I agree with Mike. Trade Dozier while his value is so high. Look at Plouffe two years ago. 24 home runs. Trade Dozier for pitching much as Span and Revere were traded. Put Beresford at 2nd base for the upcoming season.

[markos]

I think good templates for pitching trades are the Gio Gonzalez and Mat Latos trades made back after the 2011 season. Both of those trades didn't involve a top-10 prospect, but rather a couple of prospects in the 30-60 range. Rosario probably fits that range, if not this offseason then next. May throw in someone like Berrios and that could be enough to get an established #1 starter with 3+ years of team control. However, it is possible that last year's Myers/Shields trade has completely distorted the trade market for starters right now, similar to how the Wheeler/Beltran trade has messed up deadline deals.

 

I don't think this is the offseason to make a trade like that. Right now it doesn't seem like there are many teams that are going to start rebuilding (and selling off assets). However, next year may be different. Arizona may decide to start rebuilding if they fail to make the playoffs again. That may mean someone like Patrick Corbin will be available. The Mets may want to speed up their rebuilding, and they may be willing to trade one of their young starters for some young bats. A pitching rich team like the Braves or Cardinals may unexpectedly miss the playoffs and decide to add some offensive talent. Finally, some of the Rays' young pitchers (Chis Archer, Alex Cobb) may start to be too expensive. I don't see any comparable situation this year.

 

My suggestion would be to hang on to Rosario this season. Keep him in the minors next year (unless Dozier really struggles or Rosario rakes), and then look to trade him next offseason. Adding one starting pitcher, even one as good as David Price, most likely isn't going to put this team into contention next year. There are too many holes to fill and too many young players that need to develop quickly and all at once. However, hopefully the team will be in a very different position next offseason, and adding one front line pitcher may make the different.

[Paul Pleiss]

Hold on to Rosario. Dozier needs to show he can be the 2nd-half 2013 guy for more than half a season. No need to move Rosario... yet. For a team that has struggled to have competant middle infielders, it seems unwise to trade away a young talent like Rosario after limited success from Dozier. If the Twins have too much depth at 2B, that seems like a good problem to have. I would suggest that it seems Dozier can continue to be a very good 2B with excellent pop for the position, but I want to see more. Patience.

[ericchri]

If anyone is willing to trade back a legit pitcher in return you start a trade package from our side with whichever of Dozier or Rosario they like better. Not much reason to hesitate from my point of view. Heck we've still got Polanco coming up in the system looking like a really good 2B prospect as well. We need to start bringing in top-flight pitching, and if that's what it takes, so be it.

 

Sano, Buxton, and Meyer are the only guys I'd be unwilling to trade. I'd throw Kohl Stewart on that list too, but he can't be traded until a year after he was drafted/signed, correct?