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The Minnesota Twins are good. They were expected to come into 2020 and compete as one of the best teams in the sport. That has been true, and teams like that often bolster their positioning prior to the Postseason in an effort to make a run at the World Series. If Minnesota is going to go down that path, and they should, it will likely come in the form of pitching. Going into the year a starter was the presumed acquisition, and it may still be. The Texas Rangers are not good, and despite hanging in near .500 at this point, they don’t seem likely to factor in as one of two third place teams playing in October. Assuming they feel the same way, veteran starter Lance Lynn could be on the trade block. He’s 33 years old and signed through the 2021 season at a modest $9.3M next year. Besides being on a bad team, there’s a lot to like here. Lynn currently owns a 1.37 ERA through six starts, and he’s sitting down 9.6 per nine innings. He posted a 3.67 ERA across 208 innings in 2019 and topped 10 strikeouts per nine for the first time in his career. Finishing 5th in the Cy Young voting, it’s fair to say that Lynn has been everything for the Rangers that Minnesota thought they were getting when grabbing him off the free agent market in 2018. Now we’ve come full circle, Lance Lynn has already been with the Minnesota Twins. It did not go well. Lynn made just 20 starts before being sent to the New York Yankees. It seemed apparent he viewed the deal as a below-market offer that begrudgingly was accepted late into Spring Training. He’s not a small guy normally, but came into camp looking out of shape, and stamina often looked concerning when taking the ball. The results came out to the tune of a 4.77 ERA and 4.4 BB/9 that ultimately contributed to career lows across the board. It’s also clear that Lynn isn’t the same pitcher he was in that outlier of a season. His average fastball velocity is higher now than it was when Minnesota signed him, and some of the supporting numbers are better than they’ve ever been. Statcast numbers view him favorably in comparison to his competition across the league, and you absolutely can’t argue with the results. Where it breaks down for me in regards to Lynn is what you’ll need to give up, and what you may be getting back into. Maybe it’s somewhat hollow to suggest a team not acquire a guy that previously didn’t work out, but I think there’s some merit to that. It’s not as though there’s been an overhaul in the organizational structure since Lynn was last here. There has been coaching staff changes that could potentially take him to even higher heights, but the bosses that handed him a paycheck deemed subpar still remain in place. Neither side got what they wanted out of the deal, and mentally that likely plays a factor. On the basis of baseball merit, Lynn could quite possibly be the best starting asset acquirable at the deadline. His production has been top notch for the past year and a half, and Texas also has him under team control for another season. They should be asking for a nice return and dealing some combination of top prospects for that type of return seems underwhelming. Postseason starting pitching isn’t as much about depth as it is having horses. With only three guys truly necessary and a fourth being arguable, the length of the rotation is called more into question. Kenta Maeda and Rich Hill are both proven and capable of being aces of a staff. Jose Berrios still is Minnesota’s internally developed ticket there, and Michael Pineda will be back in due time. For that group to include another member, the argument should be that they’re clearly head and shoulders above the rest. Despite what the numbers may say, I don’t think that’s a case you can make for Lynn. It’s anyone’s guess how this trade deadline is going to play out. No one has seen much of what prospects are doing at their alternate sites, and there’s been no actual minor league action to evaluate talent real time. Throw in the wrench that Major League Baseball invited everyone to the end-of-year party and the incentive to sell is minimized. Maybe Minnesota goes the path of adding to their stable of relief arms, but if it’s a starter, I’d shy away from Lynn. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email
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Gibson’s Departure Throws Your Dad’s Preseason Banter Into Turmoil
RandBalls Stu posted an article in Just For Fun
As of Wednesday, the latter is in flux. Gibson signed a 3-year, $30 million deal with the Texas Rangers after spending his entire career with the Twins organization. Your dad’s opinion on the matter was hard to gauge in a brief pre-Thanksgiving phone call. “He was more upset about the city plowing in his driveway after he just got done shoveling,” you told your spouse, who nodded disinterestedly as she watched a Hallmark Christmas movie with Candace Cameron Bure. “I don’t think he’s quite processed what happened.” Gibson’s signing takes one more option off the table for his former team, as the Twins look to build a rotation that can complement a playoff-ready lineup. It also means your dad’s perennial Spring Training opinion may change or go away entirely. “I don’t know where his head is at. These are uncharted waters,” you said to your teenage daughter, who nodded disinterestedly as she browsed TikTok videos. “I don’t think he’s ever said word one about the Rangers, but maybe he’s genuinely invested in Kyle Gibson and his career.” Prior to Gibson’s arrival in 2013, your dad’s most commonly expressed preseason thoughts were wishing Justin Morneau could get healthy and that Phil Cuzzi should be tried in The Hague. “Maybe once they sign somebody, or if they make (Brusdar) Graterol a starter again, that’ll get him focused on 2020,” you said to your dog, who nodded disinterestedly before unleashing another volcanic fart due to the turkey and ham your brother kept feeding him at dinner. “I don’t know where this goes from here. I don’t know if he does either.” Your dad was unavailable for comment on the matter, but he did characterize the potential of another winter storm this weekend as “bullcrap.”- 18 comments
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After the Minnesota Twins took the first two games of the series, on Thursday and Friday night, they were looking to clinch the series win on Saturday, against the Texas Rangers. Despite yet another poor outing from Jose Berrios, the Twins were able to do just that, defeating Texas 12-7 thanks to yet another great offensive outburst from the lineup. With the New York Yankees taking care of business against the Cleveland Indians earlier today, the Twins lead, in the American League Central, is back up to 2.5 games.Box Score Berrios: 4.1 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 3 BB, 6 K, 62.0% strikes (57 of 92 pitches) Home Runs: Cron (20), Sano (23) Multi-Hit Games: Kepler (2 for 5, BB), Sano (3 for 6, HR), Polanco (3 for 5, BB), Gonzalez (3 for 5), Cron (2 for 4, HR), Cave (3 for 5) WPA of +0.1: Duffey .208, May .156, Gonzalez .151, Cron .139 WPA of -0.1: Berrios -.366, It was a fast start for the Twins, who busted open the floodgates before the Rangers even came to the plate, scoring six, count’em six, runs in the top of the first inning. Max Kepler leadoff the inning with a groundout to Rangers second baseman Rougned Odor, but that was quickly followed by singles from Miguel Sano and Jorge Polanco. The inning looked like it was going to come to a quick end, however, when Eddie Rosario hit a groundball to Rangers first baseman Logan Forsythe. Forsythe went to second with the throw, getting Polanco, but the return throw was a little high, and deflected off the glove of Rangers pitcher Ariel Jurado, who was coving first on the play. With the extra life, the Twins took full advantage. Mitch Garver, Luis Arraez, and Marwin Gonzalez combined to go walk, single, double to bring the score to 4-0, Twins. C.J. Cron followed that up with his 20th home run of the season, tying the 1964 Twins for the team record, for the most players with 20 home runs in a season, at six. Old friend Danny Santana answered back in the bottom of the first with a two-run home run of his own, cutting the Twins lead back down to four. Believe it or not, Santana has morphed himself into a whole new hitter in 2019, as he has already hit 21 home runs this season. For comparison, Santana hit just 38 home runs in the nine combined season he played for the Twins, and their minor league affiliates, between 2008 and 2016. The Twins answered right back in the top of the second, adding a couple more runs, to extend their lead back up to six. With the top of the order leading off for the second straight inning, the Twins had three straight runners reach bases with nobody out. Eddie Rosario was able to drive in Kepler from third, with a sac-fly to Rangers center fielder Danny Santana. In the next at-bat, Mitch Garver was able to beat out a potential double-play ball, bringing in the Twins second run of the inning. Unfortunately for the Twins, the Rangers were up to the tasks tonight, as they themselves, punched right back in the bottom of the second. Rougned Odor drew a leadoff walk, which set the table for a rough inning for Jose Berrios, and the Twins defense. Logan Forsythe followed up the Odor walk by drilling a groundball to third baseman Miguel Sano. Sano was unable to field the grounder, and the Rangers quickly had runners on second and third with nobody out. After a Isiah Kiner-Falefa RBI-single, a Jose Trevino strikeout out, and a Shin-Soo Choo RBI-groundout, Danny Santana connected on his second, two-run home run of the evening, off of Jose Berrios. Due to the Sano error, none of the four Ranger runs in the second inning were earned. After a couple of loud innings to begin the ballgame, it was quiet for a couple innings, until the Twins were able to build on their lead in the fifth. With one out in the inning, the Twins were able to quickly load the bases for Max Kepler, who came through with an RBI-single. Unfortunately, that is all the Twins were able to get in the inning. In the bottom of the inning, the Rangers yet again showed they were up for the fight. After Jose Berrios finally retired Danny Santana to start the inning, he gave up a pair of singles and a pair of walks. That closed the book on Berrios for the night, and Tyler Duffey was brought in to protect a the Twins two-run lead, with the bases loaded and just one out, and that is exactly what he did, striking out Logan Forsythe and getting Isiah Kiner-Falefa to flyout to end the inning. There was some controversy from the Twins dugout in the top of the seventh inning. With one out, and nobody on, C.J. Cron hit a flyball down the right field line that was ruled foul, but upon further review, it appeared as though the ball was clearly fair. However, Rocco Baldelli was instructed not to challenge the call. This was a highly questionably call, not because it would have been an easy overturn, but because the game was in the seventh inning, so there was virtually no risk in challenging and getting the call wrong. This all became a moot point, when the Twins were able to tack on insurance runs in the eighth and ninth innings, thanks to a Mitch Garver RBI-single in the eighth, and this Miguel Sano two-run home run in the ninth. The bullpen was up to the task again tonight for the Twins, who pitch 4 and 2/3 scoreless innings. In addition to Tyler Duffey getting out of the jam earlier, Ryne Harper pitched a scoreless inning, Trevor May was dominant, pitching two perfect innings, and Zack Littell closed the door in the 9th. Bullpen Usage Here’s a quick look at the number of pitches thrown by the bullpen over the past five days: Next Three Games Sun at TEX, 2:05 pm CT (Perez-Lynn) Mon vs CHW, 7:10 pm CT (Nova-TBD) Tues vs CHW, 7:10 pm CT (Lopez-TBD) Last Game Twins Game Recap (8/16): Twins Prevail Behind Clutch Schoop HR, Great Bullpen Performance Click here to view the article
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Box Score Berrios: 4.1 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 3 BB, 6 K, 62.0% strikes (57 of 92 pitches) Home Runs: Cron (20), Sano (23) Multi-Hit Games: Kepler (2 for 5, BB), Sano (3 for 6, HR), Polanco (3 for 5, BB), Gonzalez (3 for 5), Cron (2 for 4, HR), Cave (3 for 5) WPA of +0.1: Duffey .208, May .156, Gonzalez .151, Cron .139 WPA of -0.1: Berrios -.366, It was a fast start for the Twins, who busted open the floodgates before the Rangers even came to the plate, scoring six, count’em six, runs in the top of the first inning. Max Kepler leadoff the inning with a groundout to Rangers second baseman Rougned Odor, but that was quickly followed by singles from Miguel Sano and Jorge Polanco. The inning looked like it was going to come to a quick end, however, when Eddie Rosario hit a groundball to Rangers first baseman Logan Forsythe. Forsythe went to second with the throw, getting Polanco, but the return throw was a little high, and deflected off the glove of Rangers pitcher Ariel Jurado, who was coving first on the play. With the extra life, the Twins took full advantage. Mitch Garver, Luis Arraez, and Marwin Gonzalez combined to go walk, single, double to bring the score to 4-0, Twins. C.J. Cron followed that up with his 20th home run of the season, tying the 1964 Twins for the team record, for the most players with 20 home runs in a season, at six. https://twitter.com/fsnorth/status/1162896319167385600 Old friend Danny Santana answered back in the bottom of the first with a two-run home run of his own, cutting the Twins lead back down to four. Believe it or not, Santana has morphed himself into a whole new hitter in 2019, as he has already hit 21 home runs this season. For comparison, Santana hit just 38 home runs in the nine combined season he played for the Twins, and their minor league affiliates, between 2008 and 2016. The Twins answered right back in the top of the second, adding a couple more runs, to extend their lead back up to six. With the top of the order leading off for the second straight inning, the Twins had three straight runners reach bases with nobody out. Eddie Rosario was able to drive in Kepler from third, with a sac-fly to Rangers center fielder Danny Santana. In the next at-bat, Mitch Garver was able to beat out a potential double-play ball, bringing in the Twins second run of the inning. Unfortunately for the Twins, the Rangers were up to the tasks tonight, as they themselves, punched right back in the bottom of the second. Rougned Odor drew a leadoff walk, which set the table for a rough inning for Jose Berrios, and the Twins defense. Logan Forsythe followed up the Odor walk by drilling a groundball to third baseman Miguel Sano. Sano was unable to field the grounder, and the Rangers quickly had runners on second and third with nobody out. After a Isiah Kiner-Falefa RBI-single, a Jose Trevino strikeout out, and a Shin-Soo Choo RBI-groundout, Danny Santana connected on his second, two-run home run of the evening, off of Jose Berrios. Due to the Sano error, none of the four Ranger runs in the second inning were earned. After a couple of loud innings to begin the ballgame, it was quiet for a couple innings, until the Twins were able to build on their lead in the fifth. With one out in the inning, the Twins were able to quickly load the bases for Max Kepler, who came through with an RBI-single. Unfortunately, that is all the Twins were able to get in the inning. In the bottom of the inning, the Rangers yet again showed they were up for the fight. After Jose Berrios finally retired Danny Santana to start the inning, he gave up a pair of singles and a pair of walks. That closed the book on Berrios for the night, and Tyler Duffey was brought in to protect a the Twins two-run lead, with the bases loaded and just one out, and that is exactly what he did, striking out Logan Forsythe and getting Isiah Kiner-Falefa to flyout to end the inning. There was some controversy from the Twins dugout in the top of the seventh inning. With one out, and nobody on, C.J. Cron hit a flyball down the right field line that was ruled foul, but upon further review, it appeared as though the ball was clearly fair. However, Rocco Baldelli was instructed not to challenge the call. This was a highly questionably call, not because it would have been an easy overturn, but because the game was in the seventh inning, so there was virtually no risk in challenging and getting the call wrong. This all became a moot point, when the Twins were able to tack on insurance runs in the eighth and ninth innings, thanks to a Mitch Garver RBI-single in the eighth, and this Miguel Sano two-run home run in the ninth. https://twitter.com/fsnorth/status/1162938203151581184 The bullpen was up to the task again tonight for the Twins, who pitch 4 and 2/3 scoreless innings. In addition to Tyler Duffey getting out of the jam earlier, Ryne Harper pitched a scoreless inning, Trevor May was dominant, pitching two perfect innings, and Zack Littell closed the door in the 9th. Bullpen Usage Here’s a quick look at the number of pitches thrown by the bullpen over the past five days: Next Three Games Sun at TEX, 2:05 pm CT (Perez-Lynn) Mon vs CHW, 7:10 pm CT (Nova-TBD) Tues vs CHW, 7:10 pm CT (Lopez-TBD) Last Game Twins Game Recap (8/16): Twins Prevail Behind Clutch Schoop HR, Great Bullpen Performance
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As analytics have crept into the game of baseball and taken a foothold as the chief form of evaluation, players from all different eras rail against the game in its current state. The game has definitely changed to cater towards the exceptional athletes that play it today, and the sport has taken notice as well. Unwritten rules have forever (and will always) be part of baseball, but there’s a certain aspect still waiting to be phased out. The idea that baseball polices itself has long been one that has held weight. As the game has adapted to use slogans like “Let the kids play” and adopted rule changes at bases and the plate, it’s clear there’s an emphasis on keeping these elite athletes on the field of play. With that in mind, it’s beyond time to put an end to the retaliatory pitch. In last night’s Twins and Rangers game, outfielder Jake Cave swung on a 3-0 pitch and lined a single into the outfield. It was a 13-6 game and in the top of the 9th inning. Cave immediately apologized to pitcher Shawn Kelley upon reaching first base, and he appeared to have lost track of the count. Kelley overlooked the acknowledgement and after going 3-0 to the Max Kepler, plunked him on the arm. Discussion from the booth, from Roy Smalley and Dick Bremer, immediately turned to that act as retaliation for Cave’s transgression. In a game that Minnesota was blowing out Texas, he had the audacity to swing his bat. Kelley couldn’t find the zone for a second straight batter, and then quit competing to hurl a ball into the arm of the Twins centerfielder. A sport that now has rules in place to protect its players, watched as a pitcher hurled a pitch into a batter, simply because he was upset. I have no problem with avoidance of the mound, looking presentable on the field, carrying yourself with a level of self-respect, or any number of lesser unwritten rules. I do have an issue with the idea that a pitcher gets to throw a projectile at a batter any time they feel scorned or upset. While wearing a pitch isn’t the end of the world, taking a 90-mph baseball to any part of your body doesn’t feel good, and can certainly open the door to a more substantial injury. There’s a level of respect shown to an opponent taking one base at a time or giving away pitches in a blowout game. That’s not a necessity though and is something the winning team does to show mercy. Expecting that to be the practice, and then reacting negatively when it doesn’t take place is lunacy. Minnesota wouldn’t have been afforded the good graces of the Rangers simply striking out should they have mounted a 9th inning comeback. Deciding when the game no longer is worth playing in the middle of it is not for any one person to opine. On top of that, this instance stemmed from a guy who clearly stated his intentions and felt bad for what he considered a misstep. At the end of the day it isn’t that Jake Cave got his teammate Max Kepler hit. That’s what happened, but it was the idiocy of Rangers pitcher Shawn Kelley that decided an attempt to injure an opponent was fair response to him failing at his job. The easiest way to avoid having your feelings hurt in defeat is to steer clear of situations where you cause self-embarrassment. Last night the Rangers were an abomination, and then they doubled down on that fact in how they carried out the 9th inning. Hopefully the Twins find no need to keep the beanball war going tonight, but I certainly hope every dinger that leaves the park ends with a bat flip landing mere feet from the mound and the pitcher that offered it up. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz
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Coming off a strong 2018, where he posted a 1.56 ERA (1.90 FIP) with 13.3 K/9 and 3.9 BB/9 in 57 and 2/3 innings for the Rangers, Jose Leclerc was being considered as one of the top young relievers in the game. This led the Rangers to give the 25-year-old righty a contract extension that locked up Leclerc’s salary through his arbitration years and gives them a team option for 2023 and 2024. If the Twins were to acquire Leclerc, they would be receiving this team friendly contract that only has $13.75 million in guaranteed money remaining. Much was made about the awful start that Jose Leclerc had to begin the 2019 season, which led to Leclerc losing his closer role. In 13 appearances i, Leclerc had a 8.44 ERA with 14 strikeouts and 9 walks allowed in 10 and 2/3 innings pitched. However, since the beginning of May, Leclerc has been much better, to the tune of a 2.80 ERA with 56 strikeouts and 13 walks in 35 and 1/3 innings. It is probably safe the assume that the 2018 and post April 2019 versions of Leclerc are a more accurate representation of who his really is as a pitcher, since the sample size is so much larger. The expected stats generated via Statcast back this up as well. In 2018, Leclerc’s expected wOBA sat at .209, which lead all 361 MLB pitchers who faced at least 200 batters. This year, Leclerc’s expected wOBA sits at .258, which still ranks 22nd among the 411 MLB pitchers who have faced at least 100 hitters this year. What makes Leclerc so intriguing is the electric stuff that he brings out of the pen. Leclerc’s four-seam fastball averages 96.6 MPH, which is in the 92nd percentile in Major League Baseball. Additionally, Leclerc throws his four-seamer with tremendous amounts of backspin. At 2,648 RMP, his four-seamer has the third highest average RPM amongst the 420 MLB pitchers who have thrown at least 100 four-seam fastballs in 2019. Leclerc pairs this pitch up with an above-average slider and a decent changeup that he mixes in about 10 percent of the time. The part that might give the Twins some pause in trying to acquire Leclerc would be a high asking price in terms of prospect capital, at least for a reliever. Leclerc certainly wouldn’t cost a king’s ransom that would require the Twins to give up Royce Lewis or Alex Kirilloff, but the Rangers would be well within their rights to ask for another top prospect like Jordan Balazovic or Trevor Larnach in order to get the deal done. The Twins could also look to do some sort of package deal that would include players like Jhoan Duran and Brent Rooker. This might seem like a lot for a reliever, but the Ranger’s aren’t exactly in a position where they have to move him now, since they still have him under team control though 2024. See Also Francisco Liriano, LHP, Pirates Raisel Iglesias, RHP, Reds Jake Diekman, LHP, Royals Ian Kennedy, RHP, Royals Sergio Romo, RHP, Marlins Shane Greene, RHP, Tigers Felipe Vázquez, LHP, Pirates Will Smith, LHP, Giants Liam Hendriks, RHP, Athletics Ty Buttrey, RHP, Angels Ken Giles, RHP, Blue Jays Sam Dyson, RHP, Giants Brad Hand, LHP, Indians Oliver Perez, LHP Cleveland Robert Stephenson, RHP, Reds John Gant, RHP, Cardinals Alex Colome, RHP, White Sox Seth Lugo, RHP, Mets Greg Holland, RHP, Diamondbacks Sean Doolittle, LHP, Nationals Kirby Yates, RHP, Padres 10 Relievers Minnesota Could Target
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Down in Dallas, Texas, the Rangers have quietly put together a much better season than many might have expected. According to Oddsshark, the Rangers preseason over/under win total sat at just 71 wins. However, we are nearly 100 games into the season and the Rangers are holding water, slightly above .500. While their offense, which ranks seventh in runs scored, has played a big part in that, they have also received contributions from their starting rotation. Former Minnesota Twin Lance Lynn has gotten some press lately for his success so far this year, but one guy who hasn’t been getting much attention is lefty Mike Minor. Despite their success, their GM, Jon Daniels, recently came out and said their approach won’t be swayed much by the standings, which would suggest that Minor should be available on the trade market before the July 31st trade deadline.Mike Minor was a highly touted prospect out of Vanderbilt entering the 2009 draft. He was taken by the Atlanta Braves with the seventh overall selection in the same draft where Stephen Strasburg went number one overall to the Washington Nationals, Mike Trout was taken 25th overall by the Los Angeles Angels, and Kyle Gibson was taken 22nd overall by the Twins. Minor had a breakout season for the Braves in 2013, posting a 3.21 ERA over 204 and 2/3 innings. However, he struggled in 2014 while dealing with a bad shoulder. Minor wound up needing surgery to repair a torn labrum in 2015 and missed the entire season. At season's end, the Braves decided to non-tender Minor, making him a free agent. He then signed a minor league deal with the Royals late that offseason, and pitched all of 2016 in their minor league system. In 2017, Minor was moved to the Royals bullpen and was an excellent reliever for them during that season. Once the season had ended, Minor again became a free agent, and signed a 3-year, $28 million deal with the Texas Rangers, where they have since moved him back into the starting rotation. After a decent season in 2018, where he posted a 2.5 fWAR in 157 innings, Mike Minor has had a lights out campaign so far this year, and earned himself a spot on the 2019 American League All-Star Team. Entering play on Friday, here is how Minor’s stat line compares to that of Jose Berrios. MIke Minor: 122 IP, 8.93 K/9, 3.25 BB/9, 2.73 ERA, 3.82 FIP, 2.9 fWAR Jose Berrios: 122 IP, 8.11 K/9, 1.92 BB/9, 3.10 ERA, 3.80 FIP, 3.0 fWAR When you look at many of the expected stats that are available via Statcast, it appears as though Minor has actually been slightly better than Berrios this year. Mike Minor: .220 xBA, .357 xSLG, .294 xwOBA Jose Berrios: .245 xBA, .406 xSLG, .303 xwOBA While it is up in the air if an addition like Madison Bumgarner would make much of an upgrade to the Twins projected postseason rotation, it is clear that adding Mike Minor would definitely be an upgrade over the likes of Kyle Gibson, Martin Perez and Michael Pineda. Another thing that makes Mike Minor appealing as a trade deadline addition is his team-friendly contract. Minor is currently in year two of that three year deal I mentioned previously. If the Twins traded for Minor, they would also acquire his services in 2020 for just $9.5 million. This is a bargain price for even an average starting pitcher, let alone an all-star caliber pitcher. This will give the Twins a rotation of Jose Berrios, Mike Minor and potentially Martin Perez (team option) secured for 2020, heading into the offseason. So, what would it take to get a deal done with the Texas Rangers for Mike Minor? While Minor’s trade value has certainly gone up this season, it would most likely not require the Twins to give up either Royce Lewis or Alex Kirilloff to acquire him. Additionally, with Brusdar Graterol still injured, it is unlikely that the Twins move him before the trade deadline. A more realistic trade for Minor would go either one of two ways. The Twins could offer up a prospect like Trevor Larnach or Jordan Balazovic and strike a deal with one of those two and a low-level prospect, or if the Twins don’t feel like giving up either one of those two players, they could offer a package that involves either Brent Rooker or Jhoan Duran along with another mid-level prospect like Nick Gordon or Ryan Jeffers. Personally, the later would be more appealing from the Twins perspective, but it will most likely come down the preference of the Texas Rangers. The Twins have done an excellent job of building a great farm system over the first few seasons of the Falvine regime, and the time has come to leverage that great farm system to acquire players that can help the Twins win right now. While he might not be as flashy of a name as some other trade targets, Mike Minor certainly fits the bill for a trade deadline addition that would be an upgrade to the 2019 Minnesota Twins. Other Stories of Interest Building a Perfect Twins Trade Deadline Twins Trade Rumor Recap: Teams Pondering Selling Five Potential Dual Pitcher Trades the Twins Could Make Click here to view the article
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Mike Minor was a highly touted prospect out of Vanderbilt entering the 2009 draft. He was taken by the Atlanta Braves with the seventh overall selection in the same draft where Stephen Strasburg went number one overall to the Washington Nationals, Mike Trout was taken 25th overall by the Los Angeles Angels, and Kyle Gibson was taken 22nd overall by the Twins. Minor had a breakout season for the Braves in 2013, posting a 3.21 ERA over 204 and 2/3 innings. However, he struggled in 2014 while dealing with a bad shoulder. Minor wound up needing surgery to repair a torn labrum in 2015 and missed the entire season. At season's end, the Braves decided to non-tender Minor, making him a free agent. He then signed a minor league deal with the Royals late that offseason, and pitched all of 2016 in their minor league system. In 2017, Minor was moved to the Royals bullpen and was an excellent reliever for them during that season. Once the season had ended, Minor again became a free agent, and signed a 3-year, $28 million deal with the Texas Rangers, where they have since moved him back into the starting rotation. After a decent season in 2018, where he posted a 2.5 fWAR in 157 innings, Mike Minor has had a lights out campaign so far this year, and earned himself a spot on the 2019 American League All-Star Team. Entering play on Friday, here is how Minor’s stat line compares to that of Jose Berrios. MIke Minor: 122 IP, 8.93 K/9, 3.25 BB/9, 2.73 ERA, 3.82 FIP, 2.9 fWAR Jose Berrios: 122 IP, 8.11 K/9, 1.92 BB/9, 3.10 ERA, 3.80 FIP, 3.0 fWAR When you look at many of the expected stats that are available via Statcast, it appears as though Minor has actually been slightly better than Berrios this year. Mike Minor: .220 xBA, .357 xSLG, .294 xwOBA Jose Berrios: .245 xBA, .406 xSLG, .303 xwOBA While it is up in the air if an addition like Madison Bumgarner would make much of an upgrade to the Twins projected postseason rotation, it is clear that adding Mike Minor would definitely be an upgrade over the likes of Kyle Gibson, Martin Perez and Michael Pineda. Another thing that makes Mike Minor appealing as a trade deadline addition is his team-friendly contract. Minor is currently in year two of that three year deal I mentioned previously. If the Twins traded for Minor, they would also acquire his services in 2020 for just $9.5 million. This is a bargain price for even an average starting pitcher, let alone an all-star caliber pitcher. This will give the Twins a rotation of Jose Berrios, Mike Minor and potentially Martin Perez (team option) secured for 2020, heading into the offseason. So, what would it take to get a deal done with the Texas Rangers for Mike Minor? While Minor’s trade value has certainly gone up this season, it would most likely not require the Twins to give up either Royce Lewis or Alex Kirilloff to acquire him. Additionally, with Brusdar Graterol still injured, it is unlikely that the Twins move him before the trade deadline. A more realistic trade for Minor would go either one of two ways. The Twins could offer up a prospect like Trevor Larnach or Jordan Balazovic and strike a deal with one of those two and a low-level prospect, or if the Twins don’t feel like giving up either one of those two players, they could offer a package that involves either Brent Rooker or Jhoan Duran along with another mid-level prospect like Nick Gordon or Ryan Jeffers. Personally, the later would be more appealing from the Twins perspective, but it will most likely come down the preference of the Texas Rangers. The Twins have done an excellent job of building a great farm system over the first few seasons of the Falvine regime, and the time has come to leverage that great farm system to acquire players that can help the Twins win right now. While he might not be as flashy of a name as some other trade targets, Mike Minor certainly fits the bill for a trade deadline addition that would be an upgrade to the 2019 Minnesota Twins. Other Stories of Interest Building a Perfect Twins Trade Deadline Twins Trade Rumor Recap: Teams Pondering Selling Five Potential Dual Pitcher Trades the Twins Could Make
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Strat-O-Matic Baseball: Rangers at Twins 7/6/19
Danchat posted a blog entry in Danchat's Strat-O-Matic Blog
Game Summary The Twins were able to scratch cross just a single run in the first, despite hitting 4 singles. Two of them were infield hits, not allowing for runners to take an extra base. Schoop struck out with the bases loaded to end the inning... and then Pineda fell apart. - Pineda gave up 2 runs in the second, 2 in the third, and despite pulling him early in the fourth, he gave up another 4 runs. Asdrubal Cabrera let the Rangers take the lead as he hit a 2 run HR in the second. The next inning, Pineda gave up two singles and then a double to Mazara. Then, he allowed the bases to be loaded in the fourth and then I pulled him. Matt Magill promptly allowed all three runners to score on a RBI groundout and a single. This is the third straight start Pineda has had in this Strat-o-Matic simulation, and I've fed up with him. Down 8-1 in the fourth, this game is pretty much over already. - And it was, despite our bullpen's best efforts. Perhaps, if I pulled Pineda an inning earlier, we could have had something. The Twins offense was only able to scratch a few more runs across with a Buxton RBI single in the 6th, and then a Arraez sac fly followed by a Sano RBI single. Highlights: Sano is crushing it in Strat-O-Land, as he's added another 4 hits - 2 singles, a double, and even a triple. Kepler got on base 4 times but only scored once. The fielding was better this time around, with just a single error (that did lead to an unearned run). The Twins are now 1-3 in my simulations... I hope for a win next time around. - Box Score -
After a tough road trip that saw the Twins lose their first trip of the season (of either the home or road variety), the Twins look to play a three-game home series against a pleasantly surprising Texas Rangers team before the first half officially comes to a close.Brief Overview: The Rangers were seemingly stuck in a quasi-rebuild coming into 2019 as both the 2017 and 2018 team finished below .500 and there was a new captain at the helm in their new manager Chris Woodward. Their offseason was filled with interesting buy- low candidates and rebound targets in the hopes that those players could be pawned off at the deadline for prospects, as much of the roster was filled with players unlikely to carry the squad to anything substantial. Instead, those players performed too well and the Rangers now find themselves in wild card contention with a 46-40 record and a pythag W/L of 45-41 heading into Thursday’s game. What They Do Well: Starting pitching is the backbone of any good team aspiring to reach the playoffs and the Rangers have a solid starting rotation that ranks 10th in baseball in fWAR (thanks mainly due to Mike Minor and literally Lance Lynn whom I’ll talk about more later). Their starting pitching FIP of 4.53 is slightly worse than the mark Scott Diamond put up with the Twins (4.46), but in the modern high scoring era of MLB context, the number is much better than it looks compared to the rest of history. Yet again, the Twins will play a team that likes to steal as the Rangers have swiped the second most bases in all of baseball. It has also been a team effort instead of just falling on a single player or two, as 10 players have swiped multiple bases for the Rangers in 2019. For comparison, the Twins only have three such players. It will be interesting to see the different philosophies regarding base stealing at play during the series and both Jason Castro and Mitch Garver will have to stay on their toes through the series. What They Do Not Do Well: The Rangers are very good at striking out! I suppose if you get philosophical then you could question whether striking out a lot would categorize as something you do “well” or “not well”, but that’s an argument for a different day. The Rangers have the third highest offensive K% in MLB and their 25.8% mark almost perfectly matches how often Jim Thome struck out with the Twins (Thome was at 25.9%) and just 2 Twins hitters with more than 100 plate appearances have struck out at a higher rate so far this year (Miguel Sanó and Nelson Cruz). The Rangers bullpen is not good as they hold the fifth worst bullpen FIP in the majors at 4.93 (R.A. Dickey’s Twins FIP was 4.87 for comparison). It has been a revolving door for the Rangers pen as 20 different pitchers have gotten an out in relief for the Rangers in 2019 with one of those pitchers being named “Locke St. John”. No, I am not making that up. Along with Mr. St. John, they have also employed multiple relievers named “Jesse” and “Kyle” which would be less notable if I was talking about individuals who belonged to a fraternity in Montana, but I digress. Individuals Of Note: The poster boy for MLB in 2019, Joey Gallo, is having a brilliant season that has already seen him pass his career high in fWAR (it currently sits at 3.5). He’s still striking out at rates that would anger Willians Astudillo (35.8 K%), but he’s also walking more than ever and is being boosted by a .382 BABIP. Even if that BABIP comes down, he is still very capable of sending a ball deep into traffic over in right field and is one of the few hitters that make me visibly cringe in terror when he unleashes a swing. Hunter Pence was a part of the group of buy-low players I mentioned in the beginning and he has had a phenomenal bounce back year so far as he holds a 142 wRC+ (Harmon Killebrew’s career wRC+ is 144). Pence worked hard in the offseason to rework his swing that before had looked like an antsy crackhead digging into his pockets while looking for a cigarette but now looks more like that crackhead finally found some Adderall. The reward for Pence was the starting DH job in the All-Star game but he is unfortunately on the IL, so he will miss this series along with the All-Star Game. The Rangers also employ old friend Logan Forsythe and older friend Danny Santana and both have been above average players somehow, I really don’t know what’s happening over there but there is something in the water in Texas that brings players back to life. On the pitching side of things, Mike Minor has been another incredible story as the 31-year old finds himself second in the AL in ERA at 2.54 after missing both the 2015 and 2016 seasons and finally returning as a reliever for the Royals in 2017. The peripherals for Minor aren’t as pretty as his ERA (3.77 FIP and 4.42 xFIP suggest regression), but he has been a great starter nonetheless and it appears that the 2019 All-Star will pitch on Sunday. The other notable name is ...blegh ... do I have to write it? Fine, Lance Lynn. Yes, Lance “literally Lance Lynn” Lynn currently leads the AL in pitching fWAR. His 4.00 ERA isn’t the best but his pristine 2.94 FIP suggests that he is pitching better than it appears he is. I’m not sure what kind of necromancy the Rangers pulled to make this happen, but this is a sign that either there is no God or the one that exists has a sick sense of humor. If you would have told me during any of his outings last year where he was attempting to throw his 15th straight fastball out of the strike zone while runners were on the corners in the third and he already had thrown 60 pitches that this same man would lead the AL in pitching fWAR next year then I would have you taken in for being insane. Luckily, Lynn will not pitch in the series and Twins fans will get to avoid his terror. Recent History: The Rangers and Twins have not played this year but the Twins lost the season series last year by 2-4. I highly doubt any of those series can be used as a solid point of reference for how this upcoming series so I wouldn’t look too far into that. Recent Trajectories: Both teams are pretty cool right now as the Twins are 5-5 in their last 10 games coming into Thursday while the Rangers are 6-4 in the same time frame that includes 4 straight losses coming into Thursday. The Rangers did have a better June than the Twins did however as they had a .621 winning percentage and the Twins had a .556 winning mark. Ending Thoughts: The Rangers have built a respectable squad that will come in at a time where the Twins are a bit banged up and not playing their best ball. The Twins aren’t in a place yet where a series win is mandatory but it would be great to head into the break with a few more wins, especially as the Indians continue to play better baseball and look to threaten the division soon. I could see the series going either way but I’ll predict a series win for the Twins because I can feel in my gut that they’ll do it. Click here to view the article
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Brief Overview: The Rangers were seemingly stuck in a quasi-rebuild coming into 2019 as both the 2017 and 2018 team finished below .500 and there was a new captain at the helm in their new manager Chris Woodward. Their offseason was filled with interesting buy- low candidates and rebound targets in the hopes that those players could be pawned off at the deadline for prospects, as much of the roster was filled with players unlikely to carry the squad to anything substantial. Instead, those players performed too well and the Rangers now find themselves in wild card contention with a 46-40 record and a pythag W/L of 45-41 heading into Thursday’s game. What They Do Well: Starting pitching is the backbone of any good team aspiring to reach the playoffs and the Rangers have a solid starting rotation that ranks 10th in baseball in fWAR (thanks mainly due to Mike Minor and literally Lance Lynn whom I’ll talk about more later). Their starting pitching FIP of 4.53 is slightly worse than the mark Scott Diamond put up with the Twins (4.46), but in the modern high scoring era of MLB context, the number is much better than it looks compared to the rest of history. Yet again, the Twins will play a team that likes to steal as the Rangers have swiped the second most bases in all of baseball. It has also been a team effort instead of just falling on a single player or two, as 10 players have swiped multiple bases for the Rangers in 2019. For comparison, the Twins only have three such players. It will be interesting to see the different philosophies regarding base stealing at play during the series and both Jason Castro and Mitch Garver will have to stay on their toes through the series. What They Do Not Do Well: The Rangers are very good at striking out! I suppose if you get philosophical then you could question whether striking out a lot would categorize as something you do “well” or “not well”, but that’s an argument for a different day. The Rangers have the third highest offensive K% in MLB and their 25.8% mark almost perfectly matches how often Jim Thome struck out with the Twins (Thome was at 25.9%) and just 2 Twins hitters with more than 100 plate appearances have struck out at a higher rate so far this year (Miguel Sanó and Nelson Cruz). The Rangers bullpen is not good as they hold the fifth worst bullpen FIP in the majors at 4.93 (R.A. Dickey’s Twins FIP was 4.87 for comparison). It has been a revolving door for the Rangers pen as 20 different pitchers have gotten an out in relief for the Rangers in 2019 with one of those pitchers being named “Locke St. John”. No, I am not making that up. Along with Mr. St. John, they have also employed multiple relievers named “Jesse” and “Kyle” which would be less notable if I was talking about individuals who belonged to a fraternity in Montana, but I digress. Individuals Of Note: The poster boy for MLB in 2019, Joey Gallo, is having a brilliant season that has already seen him pass his career high in fWAR (it currently sits at 3.5). He’s still striking out at rates that would anger Willians Astudillo (35.8 K%), but he’s also walking more than ever and is being boosted by a .382 BABIP. Even if that BABIP comes down, he is still very capable of sending a ball deep into traffic over in right field and is one of the few hitters that make me visibly cringe in terror when he unleashes a swing. Hunter Pence was a part of the group of buy-low players I mentioned in the beginning and he has had a phenomenal bounce back year so far as he holds a 142 wRC+ (Harmon Killebrew’s career wRC+ is 144). Pence worked hard in the offseason to rework his swing that before had looked like an antsy crackhead digging into his pockets while looking for a cigarette but now looks more like that crackhead finally found some Adderall. The reward for Pence was the starting DH job in the All-Star game but he is unfortunately on the IL, so he will miss this series along with the All-Star Game. The Rangers also employ old friend Logan Forsythe and older friend Danny Santana and both have been above average players somehow, I really don’t know what’s happening over there but there is something in the water in Texas that brings players back to life. On the pitching side of things, Mike Minor has been another incredible story as the 31-year old finds himself second in the AL in ERA at 2.54 after missing both the 2015 and 2016 seasons and finally returning as a reliever for the Royals in 2017. The peripherals for Minor aren’t as pretty as his ERA (3.77 FIP and 4.42 xFIP suggest regression), but he has been a great starter nonetheless and it appears that the 2019 All-Star will pitch on Sunday. The other notable name is ...blegh ... do I have to write it? Fine, Lance Lynn. Yes, Lance “literally Lance Lynn” Lynn currently leads the AL in pitching fWAR. His 4.00 ERA isn’t the best but his pristine 2.94 FIP suggests that he is pitching better than it appears he is. I’m not sure what kind of necromancy the Rangers pulled to make this happen, but this is a sign that either there is no God or the one that exists has a sick sense of humor. If you would have told me during any of his outings last year where he was attempting to throw his 15th straight fastball out of the strike zone while runners were on the corners in the third and he already had thrown 60 pitches that this same man would lead the AL in pitching fWAR next year then I would have you taken in for being insane. Luckily, Lynn will not pitch in the series and Twins fans will get to avoid his terror. Recent History: The Rangers and Twins have not played this year but the Twins lost the season series last year by 2-4. I highly doubt any of those series can be used as a solid point of reference for how this upcoming series so I wouldn’t look too far into that. Recent Trajectories: Both teams are pretty cool right now as the Twins are 5-5 in their last 10 games coming into Thursday while the Rangers are 6-4 in the same time frame that includes 4 straight losses coming into Thursday. The Rangers did have a better June than the Twins did however as they had a .621 winning percentage and the Twins had a .556 winning mark. Ending Thoughts: The Rangers have built a respectable squad that will come in at a time where the Twins are a bit banged up and not playing their best ball. The Twins aren’t in a place yet where a series win is mandatory but it would be great to head into the break with a few more wins, especially as the Indians continue to play better baseball and look to threaten the division soon. I could see the series going either way but I’ll predict a series win for the Twins because I can feel in my gut that they’ll do it.
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On Wednesday, the Twins lost in New York to the Yankees (Rinse. Repeat.) Fortunately, the Twins got help from the American League Central Division champions from Cleveland. Late on Wednesday night, the Angels lost a second-straight one-run game at the hands of Cleveland. That combination of events means that the Twins, despite their struggles in New York, they still have a 1.5 game lead in the American League Central. With all these losses, could another team work its way into the picture? Nine days ago, we took a look at the teams competing with the Twins for the second American League Wild Card spot. Seven teams were within four games of each other with between 18 and 20 games to play.Today, there are six teams within four games of the Twins and that second Wild Card spot. Baltimore is the one team that has fallen back. They are now 5.5 games back. Of course, being four games back with 20 games to play is very different than being four games back with ten games to play. Here is how the 2nd Wild Card race stands with 11 days left in the regular season (12 if there is a Game 163). Fortunately for the Twins, the other teams have all struggled in the last 9-10 days too. The Twins have gone 4-5 in the last nine days, but each of the other teams competing for the second Wild Card spot have been under .500. The Angels, Rangers, Mariners and Royals were all 3-5 during that time frame. The Rays were 3-4. The Orioles fell out of the race by going 2-7. So, the Twins have lost four of their last five games but only lost 1.5 games in that time frame. The Twins still have the advantage for a playoff spot, and that should be encouraging. Of course, here is the time when it is important to mention that the Twins went 59-103 last year, and they now have 78 wins this season with ten games to play. Yes, 2017 has been a tremendous success for the Twins regardless of what happens over these final ten games. That said, it’s OK to recalibrate your expectations (or at least your hopes) for the 2017 season at this point. With ten games to play in a 162 game season, it’s as if the Twins have a one-run lead going into the bottom of the ninth inning of their season. Now it’s time to bring in the closer and finish the season strong. Here is a quick look at the remaining schedule. The Twins start with four games in Detroit and then head to Cleveland for three games. They finish with three home games against the Tigers. Seven games against the Tigers would seen to be a very positive thing for the Twins, and relatively speaking, it is. The Tigers traded off some veterans including Justin Verlander and JD Martinez in the last couple of months. They are playing for 2018. So they can be a scary opponent too. The Twins obviously have motivation to finish strong and get to a one-game playoff. But the Tigers players have motivation to finish strong and try to impress the manager and the front office. If 84 is the number of wins needed, the Twins would have to go 6-4 in their final ten and the Angels would have to go 8-3. For the Angels to go 8-3, they would likely need to win one of the four remaining games against Cleveland and the Astros, and if they do that, they would have to win their four games at Chicago (White Sox) and three games against the Mariners to end the season. More important, if 84 is the new number that we believe that it will take to win the second Wild Card, it is harder to envision that this is more than a two-team race. Texas is now 75-76 and 2.5 games back of the Twins, but to get to 84 wins, they would need to go 9-2 down the stretch. Feasible? Yes. Likely? No. However, after playing in Seattle today, they will play seven games in Oakland but three against Houston. The Mariners would have to go 10-0 down the stretch to get to 84 wins, and they have three games against Cleveland and three on the road against the Rangers. The Royals would have to go 10-1 down the stretch. While they have the “easiest” schedule down the stretch, they have one game in New York against the Yankees that will certainly be difficult, and they only have a one-game margin for error. The Rays would have to go 10-0, and they have three against the Yankees. So again, it now appears to be just a two-team race for the second Wild Card. Unless, of course, 84 isn’t the required win total. PLAYOFF ODDS Here are the projections for which of the competing teams will make the playoffs: FanGraphs: Twins: 62.4% Angels: 26.0% Rangers: 4.8% BaseballProspectus: Twins: 65.0% Angels: 20.4% Rangers: 9.0% FiveThirtyEight Twins: 64% Angels: 22% Texas: 9% FiveThirtyEight predicts that the Twins will end with a record of 83-79. That would mean a 5-5 record down the stretch. REMAINING SCHEDULES Minnesota Twins (78-74) 4 games @ Detroit 1 Day Off 3 games @ Cleveland 3 games vs Detroit Los Angeles Angels (76-75, 1.5 games behind Twins) 1 game vs Cleveland 3 games @ Houston 4 games @ White Sox 3 games vs Seattle Texas Rangers (75-76, 2.5 games behind Twins) 1 game @ Seattle 3 games @ Oakland 3 games vs Houston 4 games vs Oakland Seattle Mariners (74-78) 1 game vs Texas 3 games vs Cleveland 3 games @ Oakland 1 day off 3 games @ LA Angels Kansas City Royals (74-77) 1 game @ Toronto 3 games @ Chicago White Sox 1 game @ NY Yankees 3 games vs Detroit 3 games vs Arizona Tampa Bay Rays (74-78) 4 games @ Baltimore 1 day off 3 games @ NY Yankees 3 games vs Baltimore So, what do you think will happen? What do the Twins need to do? I think the most important thing that the Twins can do is forget the three games in New York. Notice that they control their own destiny, they have the lead in the wild card race, and they can only control what they do. They need to take care of business in Detroit, and they need to find a way to eke out a win in Cleveland. Then they’ll still need to finish strong against the Tigers at home. Click here to view the article
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Today, there are six teams within four games of the Twins and that second Wild Card spot. Baltimore is the one team that has fallen back. They are now 5.5 games back. Of course, being four games back with 20 games to play is very different than being four games back with ten games to play. Here is how the 2nd Wild Card race stands with 11 days left in the regular season (12 if there is a Game 163). Fortunately for the Twins, the other teams have all struggled in the last 9-10 days too. The Twins have gone 4-5 in the last nine days, but each of the other teams competing for the second Wild Card spot have been under .500. The Angels, Rangers, Mariners and Royals were all 3-5 during that time frame. The Rays were 3-4. The Orioles fell out of the race by going 2-7. So, the Twins have lost four of their last five games but only lost 1.5 games in that time frame. The Twins still have the advantage for a playoff spot, and that should be encouraging. Of course, here is the time when it is important to mention that the Twins went 59-103 last year, and they now have 78 wins this season with ten games to play. Yes, 2017 has been a tremendous success for the Twins regardless of what happens over these final ten games. That said, it’s OK to recalibrate your expectations (or at least your hopes) for the 2017 season at this point. With ten games to play in a 162 game season, it’s as if the Twins have a one-run lead going into the bottom of the ninth inning of their season. Now it’s time to bring in the closer and finish the season strong. Here is a quick look at the remaining schedule. The Twins start with four games in Detroit and then head to Cleveland for three games. They finish with three home games against the Tigers. Seven games against the Tigers would seen to be a very positive thing for the Twins, and relatively speaking, it is. The Tigers traded off some veterans including Justin Verlander and JD Martinez in the last couple of months. They are playing for 2018. So they can be a scary opponent too. The Twins obviously have motivation to finish strong and get to a one-game playoff. But the Tigers players have motivation to finish strong and try to impress the manager and the front office. https://twitter.com/SethTweets/status/909781731271684097 Earlier this week, we ran a twitter poll asking fans how many wins it would take to win the second Wild Card. 54% thought that the team would need to get to 85 wins. To reach 85 wins, the Twins would have to finish the season by going 7-3, which is certainly possible. The most plausible way to 85 now it winning one of their three games in Cleveland and then win six out of seven games against the Tigers. But maybe we also need to recalibrate our thoughts on how many wins it will take to get to the playoffs. The Angels are 1.5 games behind the Twins and have a 76-75 record. They have 11 games left, so for them to get to 85 wins, they will need to go 9-2. They have one more game to play against Cleveland followed by three games in Houston. Those two teams are competing for the best record, and home field advantage in the playoffs. They also do not have a day off the rest of the season. https://twitter.com/SethTweets/status/910840650156974080 If 84 is the number of wins needed, the Twins would have to go 6-4 in their final ten and the Angels would have to go 8-3. For the Angels to go 8-3, they would likely need to win one of the four remaining games against Cleveland and the Astros, and if they do that, they would have to win their four games at Chicago (White Sox) and three games against the Mariners to end the season. More important, if 84 is the new number that we believe that it will take to win the second Wild Card, it is harder to envision that this is more than a two-team race. Texas is now 75-76 and 2.5 games back of the Twins, but to get to 84 wins, they would need to go 9-2 down the stretch. Feasible? Yes. Likely? No. However, after playing in Seattle today, they will play seven games in Oakland but three against Houston. The Mariners would have to go 10-0 down the stretch to get to 84 wins, and they have three games against Cleveland and three on the road against the Rangers. The Royals would have to go 10-1 down the stretch. While they have the “easiest” schedule down the stretch, they have one game in New York against the Yankees that will certainly be difficult, and they only have a one-game margin for error. The Rays would have to go 10-0, and they have three against the Yankees. So again, it now appears to be just a two-team race for the second Wild Card. Unless, of course, 84 isn’t the required win total. PLAYOFF ODDS Here are the projections for which of the competing teams will make the playoffs: FanGraphs: Twins: 62.4% Angels: 26.0% Rangers: 4.8% BaseballProspectus: Twins: 65.0% Angels: 20.4% Rangers: 9.0% FiveThirtyEight Twins: 64% Angels: 22% Texas: 9% FiveThirtyEight predicts that the Twins will end with a record of 83-79. That would mean a 5-5 record down the stretch. REMAINING SCHEDULES Minnesota Twins (78-74) 4 games @ Detroit 1 Day Off 3 games @ Cleveland 3 games vs Detroit Los Angeles Angels (76-75, 1.5 games behind Twins) 1 game vs Cleveland 3 games @ Houston 4 games @ White Sox 3 games vs Seattle Texas Rangers (75-76, 2.5 games behind Twins) 1 game @ Seattle 3 games @ Oakland 3 games vs Houston 4 games vs Oakland Seattle Mariners (74-78) 1 game vs Texas 3 games vs Cleveland 3 games @ Oakland 1 day off 3 games @ LA Angels Kansas City Royals (74-77) 1 game @ Toronto 3 games @ Chicago White Sox 1 game @ NY Yankees 3 games vs Detroit 3 games vs Arizona Tampa Bay Rays (74-78) 4 games @ Baltimore 1 day off 3 games @ NY Yankees 3 games vs Baltimore So, what do you think will happen? What do the Twins need to do? I think the most important thing that the Twins can do is forget the three games in New York. Notice that they control their own destiny, they have the lead in the wild card race, and they can only control what they do. They need to take care of business in Detroit, and they need to find a way to eke out a win in Cleveland. Then they’ll still need to finish strong against the Tigers at home.
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After weeks of uncertainty, the Minnesota Twins’ front office is starting to materialize. The Twins announced the hiring of Derek Falvey as the Vice President and Chief Baseball Officer at the beginning of October but the role of General Manager remained vacant. Now, according to multiple reports, the Twins appear on the verge of hiring Thad Levine as just the sixth General Manager since relocating to Minnesota.As Falvey’s Cleveland Indians trounced the Chicago Cubs in the first game of the 2016 World Series, the Star Tribune’s Lavelle Neal broke the news that Levine has “emerged as a candidate” to fill the GM position. Shortly thereafter, Dallas Morning News’ Rangers beat writer Evan Grant tweeted, confirming the Star Tribune report that Levine is expected to join the Twins. Levine is an interesting balance to Falvey’s background from Cleveland’s analytical-oriented front office. Since coming into baseball with the Colorado Rockies, the 44-year-old Levine has spent 11 seasons with the Texas Rangers in the Assistant General Manager’s position, overseeing the statistical analysis among other things for the team. The Rangers, however, are far from front-runners in baseball’s analytics game: According to an informal 2015 ESPN report, the Rangers fell towards the bottom of the league as an organization that eschews statistical analysis (although ahead of the Twins) and opted for more of the standard scouting practice. Meanwhile, in a 2014 Reddit chat, Levine addressed some of those concerns. “As a "younger" front office, we used to be younger than we are now, we were considered an analytical group, when in practice, we were much more scouting focused in our decision making,” Levine said. “In the past five years, we have made significant investments in analytics both in people and systems.” It’s hard to completely judge an organization’s analytical strengths or how much they have grown but, as it stands today, the Rangers have three people listed on their front office who appear dedicated to analytics, including Todd Slavinsky, a University of Minnesota-Morris graduate, as the Director of Baseball Analytics. The Twins, too, have three staffers from their analytics department listed on their front office page, an area they were hoping to grow with the addition of Falvey. In a 2011 Washington Post profile on Levine, Levine said that he believed the biggest advantage a team could have is hiring the best talent evaluators. He noted that there were approximately 30-to-50 of these baseball oracles floating around the game and that he was focused on hiring several of them to give his team the upper hand. “The Rangers complement the recommendations from their scouts with statistical analysis, not the other way around,” wrote the Post’s Adam Kilgore. In that same Reddit chat, Levine submitted an interesting nugget regarding the methods of the Rangers front office. He said that the team monitors Twitter and occasionally finds inspirations for potential trades. “[A]t the trade deadline, we are all on Twitter, because you may be surprised how many trade discussions are inspired or refined by tweets.” Levine also said that the front office staff would use all of the publicly available sites such as Fangraphs.com, Baseball-Reference and others to obtain information. This is by no means a bad thing, however you have to believe that while teams like the Rangers are finding that type of info, organizations like the Cubs, Astros and Dodgers are creating their own research firms in-house. That said, the Rangers methods have been successful and Levine has been instrumental in some of the talent acquisition that has created the strong American League West dynasty. After all, Texas has made it to the postseason in four of the last six years as well as the World Series twice. In his tenure, the Rangers were able to acquire Mike Napoli, Cliff Lee, Josh Hamilton Carlos Lee, Elvis Andrus, Neftali Feliz, Matt Harrison and Jarrod Saltalamacchia for various pieces of talent. “Trades tend to be unique one trade to the next,” Levine commented. “Baseball is all about talent evaluation. Everyone understands the concept of scouting two shortstops. But our jobs also require us to scout each GM. So depending on which GM you are negotiating with, the discussion will go differently.” Overall, Levine’s background seems balanced in both the new school and old school mentalities. One of Levine’s purported strengths while with the Rangers was being able to quickly diagnose the team’s in-season weaknesses and respond swiftly. For years the Twins seemed to fail at identifying roster weaknesses, reacting too late or in the wrong way to these issues. If Levine is able to transport that skill from one organization to another, that should be a huge benefit. It is no small task rebuilding the Twins, but Thad Levine has been in that position before with the Texas Rangers and has two World Series visits to show for it. Click here to view the article
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As Falvey’s Cleveland Indians trounced the Chicago Cubs in the first game of the 2016 World Series, the Star Tribune’s Lavelle Neal broke the news that Levine has “emerged as a candidate” to fill the GM position. Shortly thereafter, Dallas Morning News’ Rangers beat writer Evan Grant tweeted, confirming the Star Tribune report that Levine is expected to join the Twins. Levine is an interesting balance to Falvey’s background from Cleveland’s analytical-oriented front office. Since coming into baseball with the Colorado Rockies, the 44-year-old Levine has spent 11 seasons with the Texas Rangers in the Assistant General Manager’s position, overseeing the statistical analysis among other things for the team. The Rangers, however, are far from front-runners in baseball’s analytics game: According to an informal 2015 ESPN report, the Rangers fell towards the bottom of the league as an organization that eschews statistical analysis (although ahead of the Twins) and opted for more of the standard scouting practice. Meanwhile, in a 2014 Reddit chat, Levine addressed some of those concerns. “As a "younger" front office, we used to be younger than we are now, we were considered an analytical group, when in practice, we were much more scouting focused in our decision making,” Levine said. “In the past five years, we have made significant investments in analytics both in people and systems.” It’s hard to completely judge an organization’s analytical strengths or how much they have grown but, as it stands today, the Rangers have three people listed on their front office who appear dedicated to analytics, including Todd Slavinsky, a University of Minnesota-Morris graduate, as the Director of Baseball Analytics. The Twins, too, have three staffers from their analytics department listed on their front office page, an area they were hoping to grow with the addition of Falvey. In a 2011 Washington Post profile on Levine, Levine said that he believed the biggest advantage a team could have is hiring the best talent evaluators. He noted that there were approximately 30-to-50 of these baseball oracles floating around the game and that he was focused on hiring several of them to give his team the upper hand. “The Rangers complement the recommendations from their scouts with statistical analysis, not the other way around,” wrote the Post’s Adam Kilgore. In that same Reddit chat, Levine submitted an interesting nugget regarding the methods of the Rangers front office. He said that the team monitors Twitter and occasionally finds inspirations for potential trades. “[A]t the trade deadline, we are all on Twitter, because you may be surprised how many trade discussions are inspired or refined by tweets.” Levine also said that the front office staff would use all of the publicly available sites such as Fangraphs.com, Baseball-Reference and others to obtain information. This is by no means a bad thing, however you have to believe that while teams like the Rangers are finding that type of info, organizations like the Cubs, Astros and Dodgers are creating their own research firms in-house. That said, the Rangers methods have been successful and Levine has been instrumental in some of the talent acquisition that has created the strong American League West dynasty. After all, Texas has made it to the postseason in four of the last six years as well as the World Series twice. In his tenure, the Rangers were able to acquire Mike Napoli, Cliff Lee, Josh Hamilton Carlos Lee, Elvis Andrus, Neftali Feliz, Matt Harrison and Jarrod Saltalamacchia for various pieces of talent. “Trades tend to be unique one trade to the next,” Levine commented. “Baseball is all about talent evaluation. Everyone understands the concept of scouting two shortstops. But our jobs also require us to scout each GM. So depending on which GM you are negotiating with, the discussion will go differently.” Overall, Levine’s background seems balanced in both the new school and old school mentalities. One of Levine’s purported strengths while with the Rangers was being able to quickly diagnose the team’s in-season weaknesses and respond swiftly. For years the Twins seemed to fail at identifying roster weaknesses, reacting too late or in the wrong way to these issues. If Levine is able to transport that skill from one organization to another, that should be a huge benefit. It is no small task rebuilding the Twins, but Thad Levine has been in that position before with the Texas Rangers and has two World Series visits to show for it.
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