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Nearly all of the top free agents have been signed this offseason, none of them having landed with the Twins. But it’s not for a lack of good contracts. Let’s look at the five best contracts that the Twins missed out on this offseason. Image courtesy of © Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports There have been some contracts this offseason that the Twins have wisely passed on because of the economics. Many times, free agent contracts are inherent overpays and for a team like the Minnesota Twins, they don’t all make sense. Players like Jacob deGrom, Justin Verlander, and Aaron Judge are great players but weren’t fits for the Twins. On the other hand, there were plenty of free agent signings this offseason that made me go, “The Twins should’ve definitely made that deal.” Here are my top 5, with the necessary caveat that the Twins might not have gotten these players by matching the exact contract that they signed for. The Twins may have needed to go 5% above what they were signed for in order to seal the deal, but either way these were contracts that the Twins missed out on (in no particular order). 1. Carlos Rodón - 6 years, $162M Heading into the offseason, many Twins fans put Rodón at the top of their free agency wish lists. Rodón represented the ace pitcher that the Twins have been searching for since Johan Santana, and because of previous health trouble, he might sign for a reasonable contract that even the Twins could afford. Sure enough, Rodón signed for a more-than-reasonable 6 year, $162M with an AAV of $27M. Certainly a fair price for an ace the caliber of Rodón who provided $49.6M in value for the White Sox in 2022. 2. Dansby Swanson - 7 years, $177M Following the opt-out of Carlos Correa, finding a replacement shortstop was the top priority for the Twins coming into the offseason. In addition, this was one of the deepest free agent shortstop classes that we had ever seen. With the high caliber of shortstops, though, came some extravagant contracts. For my money the best shortstop contract handed this offseason was the 7 year, $177M deal handed out to Dansby Swanson. While Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts and Carlos Correa signed for double digit years, Swanson signed for a modest seven years at an AAV of just $25M. 3. Chris Bassitt - 3 years, $63M While Carlos Rodón represented an ace that the Twins could have signed in free agency, we do know that the Falvey/Levine regime doesn’t like to give long contracts to starting pitchers. Enter Chris Bassitt. Bassitt is a solid number two pitcher who has drastically improved in his age 32 and age 33 seasons the past two years. Bassitt signed for a reasonable $63M on a short-term deal of just three years. Something the Twins definitely should have been in on. 4. Willson Contreras - 5 years, $87.5M The biggest free agent signing that the Twins have made this offseason was for catcher Christian Vázquez on a three-year, $30M deal. While a reasonable signing, the deal that Willson Contreras signed with the St. Louis Cardinals was the best contract signed this offseason for a catcher. A $17.5M AAV for a 30-year-old catcher who is top-three at his position is more than reasonable. Contreras definitely was interested in signing with St. Louis, but with how low the payroll is, the Twins certainly could have gone above St. Louis’s offer and it still would have been a sound signing. 5. Noah Syndergaard - 1 year, $13M As the old adage goes, you can never have too many starting pitchers, and another solid signing for the Twins this offseason would have been a one year deal for Noah Syndergaard. Since his injuries, Syndergaard hasn’t been his dominant self, but he’s still just 30-years-old and he was an above-average pitcher last offseason. Syndergaard feels like a guy that the Twins could tweak and bring him back closer to his pre-injury status. And if not? It’s a one year deal and no harm done. Which of the above deals do you think the Twins most missed out on? Were there any other deals that weren’t mentioned? Leave a comment and start the conversation. View full article
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The 5 Best Contracts that the Twins Missed Out on This Offseason
Matthew Taylor posted an article in Twins
There have been some contracts this offseason that the Twins have wisely passed on because of the economics. Many times, free agent contracts are inherent overpays and for a team like the Minnesota Twins, they don’t all make sense. Players like Jacob deGrom, Justin Verlander, and Aaron Judge are great players but weren’t fits for the Twins. On the other hand, there were plenty of free agent signings this offseason that made me go, “The Twins should’ve definitely made that deal.” Here are my top 5, with the necessary caveat that the Twins might not have gotten these players by matching the exact contract that they signed for. The Twins may have needed to go 5% above what they were signed for in order to seal the deal, but either way these were contracts that the Twins missed out on (in no particular order). 1. Carlos Rodón - 6 years, $162M Heading into the offseason, many Twins fans put Rodón at the top of their free agency wish lists. Rodón represented the ace pitcher that the Twins have been searching for since Johan Santana, and because of previous health trouble, he might sign for a reasonable contract that even the Twins could afford. Sure enough, Rodón signed for a more-than-reasonable 6 year, $162M with an AAV of $27M. Certainly a fair price for an ace the caliber of Rodón who provided $49.6M in value for the White Sox in 2022. 2. Dansby Swanson - 7 years, $177M Following the opt-out of Carlos Correa, finding a replacement shortstop was the top priority for the Twins coming into the offseason. In addition, this was one of the deepest free agent shortstop classes that we had ever seen. With the high caliber of shortstops, though, came some extravagant contracts. For my money the best shortstop contract handed this offseason was the 7 year, $177M deal handed out to Dansby Swanson. While Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts and Carlos Correa signed for double digit years, Swanson signed for a modest seven years at an AAV of just $25M. 3. Chris Bassitt - 3 years, $63M While Carlos Rodón represented an ace that the Twins could have signed in free agency, we do know that the Falvey/Levine regime doesn’t like to give long contracts to starting pitchers. Enter Chris Bassitt. Bassitt is a solid number two pitcher who has drastically improved in his age 32 and age 33 seasons the past two years. Bassitt signed for a reasonable $63M on a short-term deal of just three years. Something the Twins definitely should have been in on. 4. Willson Contreras - 5 years, $87.5M The biggest free agent signing that the Twins have made this offseason was for catcher Christian Vázquez on a three-year, $30M deal. While a reasonable signing, the deal that Willson Contreras signed with the St. Louis Cardinals was the best contract signed this offseason for a catcher. A $17.5M AAV for a 30-year-old catcher who is top-three at his position is more than reasonable. Contreras definitely was interested in signing with St. Louis, but with how low the payroll is, the Twins certainly could have gone above St. Louis’s offer and it still would have been a sound signing. 5. Noah Syndergaard - 1 year, $13M As the old adage goes, you can never have too many starting pitchers, and another solid signing for the Twins this offseason would have been a one year deal for Noah Syndergaard. Since his injuries, Syndergaard hasn’t been his dominant self, but he’s still just 30-years-old and he was an above-average pitcher last offseason. Syndergaard feels like a guy that the Twins could tweak and bring him back closer to his pre-injury status. And if not? It’s a one year deal and no harm done. Which of the above deals do you think the Twins most missed out on? Were there any other deals that weren’t mentioned? Leave a comment and start the conversation.- 32 comments
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Trading for Thor: Could Noah Syndergaard Provide Twins Stability?
Nash Walker posted an article in Twins
This five-point scoring system runs on five factors: player, projection, availability, expected cost, and viability: higher score = a better target for the Twins. THE FIVE FACTORS PLAYER: How has the player performed? How much of a difference would they make for the Twins? PROJECTION: Is there an upside with this player? Is there team control beyond this year? Are there injury concerns? AVAILABILITY: Is the player actually on the trade block? EXPECTED COST: What will it take to acquire this player, in prospect capital and dollars? VIABILITY: What’s the leaguewide desire for this player? Would the Twins have a chance in a bidding war? Let’s move on to a former ace in Angels’ starter Noah Syndergaard. PLAYER Syndergaard, 29, was a popular trade target for Twins fans at the 2019 deadline when the team was in winning position and needed quality starters. The situation is the same in 2022, but Syndergaard isn’t. Once a firebreather, Syndergaard’s velocity is way down after Tommy John surgery. He’s primarily sinker/slider against righties, with his fastball averaging 94 mph and his slider 83. The stuff is down, but righties are hitting just .232/.282/.369 off him this year. He can still get outs. Syndergaard is not a surefire game-one starter he once was. He may not even be a playoff-caliber starter, with a 4.00 ERA and 19% strikeout rate. He could provide stability to the Twins’ rotation and slot in as a solid No. 3 or 4 who could eat up innings. PLAYER SCORE: 2 PROJECTION It feels like the upside on Syndergaard is limited. It’s unlikely he regains his velocity in the second half of a season coming off arm surgery, and he’ll probably need workload maintenance. He’s on a one-year deal, so any value the Twins get will be in his handful of starts after the deadline. If there were a sense Syndergaard was returning to prior form, he would be a much more intriguing target. His average fastball velocity in July is 93.4 mph, down over a tick from his average of 94.6 in April. It’s a similar story with his slider, where he’s lost nearly two MPH on its average velocity since the opening month. Syndergaard knows how to pitch and has reinvented himself with diminished stuff. You can probably count on a league-average ERA if he's healthy. That doesn’t entirely move the needle, but his projection down the stretch is fairly gloomy. PROJECTION SCORE: 1 AVAILABILITY Poor Angels fans. Once again, with two of the best players in MLB history, the Angels are an embarrassment. They signed Syndergaard to a one-year, $21 million deal to compete. Instead, they’re likely to sell at the deadline. The Angels don’t have many clear trade candidates. They constantly operate as a contender but fail to play like one. Ryan Tepera may become available, or even someone like Jared Walsh, but their most likely trade involves Syndergaard. AVAILABILITY SCORE: 5 EXPECTED COST Unlike Luis Castillo or Frankie Montas, Syndergaard will cost more money than he will in prospects. Any acquiring team should assume the remaining ~$10 million on Syndergaard’s 2022 contract. There’s quite simply no reason for the Angels to keep him. Finding a buyer’s market on a starting pitcher is out of the ordinary, but I believe that’s the case with Syndergaard. Given his health concerns, mediocre performance, and remaining salary, one could wonder how many teams will be interested. Syndergaard was once one of the premier starters in the game. Teams would’ve lined up to trade for him just a few years ago. Now, you can probably get him for a medium-level prospect. COST SCORE: 5 VIABILITY This feels like a Twins move. It’s a buy-low opportunity that won’t cost the farm. If the Twins choose a mid-level approach, where they acquire a few relievers and mid-rotation starter, Syndergaard fits that mold. We have yet to see this Twins regime sell out for anybody at the deadline. Top-of-the-line contenders like the Yankees and Astros will likely look elsewhere. That could provide an opportunity for the Twins to scoop up Syndergaard for very little in prospect capital. Of course, Syndergaard is not close to the level of Castillo, Montas, or Tyler Mahle. VIABILITY SCORE: 4 Syndergaard is far from flashy, and he's not a guarantee to remain healthy and effective down the stretch, With the Twins' shaky rotation, he may be worth the low risk. FINAL SCORE: 17 What do you think about Noah Syndergaard? Comment below! -
Trade season is fast approaching. The Twins have only eight more games until the deadline, and they must improve the club if they want to find success in the second half and into the postseason. This five-point scoring system runs on five factors: player, projection, availability, expected cost, and viability: higher score = a better target for the Twins. THE FIVE FACTORS PLAYER: How has the player performed? How much of a difference would they make for the Twins? PROJECTION: Is there an upside with this player? Is there team control beyond this year? Are there injury concerns? AVAILABILITY: Is the player actually on the trade block? EXPECTED COST: What will it take to acquire this player, in prospect capital and dollars? VIABILITY: What’s the leaguewide desire for this player? Would the Twins have a chance in a bidding war? Let’s move on to a former ace in Angels’ starter Noah Syndergaard. PLAYER Syndergaard, 29, was a popular trade target for Twins fans at the 2019 deadline when the team was in winning position and needed quality starters. The situation is the same in 2022, but Syndergaard isn’t. Once a firebreather, Syndergaard’s velocity is way down after Tommy John surgery. He’s primarily sinker/slider against righties, with his fastball averaging 94 mph and his slider 83. The stuff is down, but righties are hitting just .232/.282/.369 off him this year. He can still get outs. Syndergaard is not a surefire game-one starter he once was. He may not even be a playoff-caliber starter, with a 4.00 ERA and 19% strikeout rate. He could provide stability to the Twins’ rotation and slot in as a solid No. 3 or 4 who could eat up innings. PLAYER SCORE: 2 PROJECTION It feels like the upside on Syndergaard is limited. It’s unlikely he regains his velocity in the second half of a season coming off arm surgery, and he’ll probably need workload maintenance. He’s on a one-year deal, so any value the Twins get will be in his handful of starts after the deadline. If there were a sense Syndergaard was returning to prior form, he would be a much more intriguing target. His average fastball velocity in July is 93.4 mph, down over a tick from his average of 94.6 in April. It’s a similar story with his slider, where he’s lost nearly two MPH on its average velocity since the opening month. Syndergaard knows how to pitch and has reinvented himself with diminished stuff. You can probably count on a league-average ERA if he's healthy. That doesn’t entirely move the needle, but his projection down the stretch is fairly gloomy. PROJECTION SCORE: 1 AVAILABILITY Poor Angels fans. Once again, with two of the best players in MLB history, the Angels are an embarrassment. They signed Syndergaard to a one-year, $21 million deal to compete. Instead, they’re likely to sell at the deadline. The Angels don’t have many clear trade candidates. They constantly operate as a contender but fail to play like one. Ryan Tepera may become available, or even someone like Jared Walsh, but their most likely trade involves Syndergaard. AVAILABILITY SCORE: 5 EXPECTED COST Unlike Luis Castillo or Frankie Montas, Syndergaard will cost more money than he will in prospects. Any acquiring team should assume the remaining ~$10 million on Syndergaard’s 2022 contract. There’s quite simply no reason for the Angels to keep him. Finding a buyer’s market on a starting pitcher is out of the ordinary, but I believe that’s the case with Syndergaard. Given his health concerns, mediocre performance, and remaining salary, one could wonder how many teams will be interested. Syndergaard was once one of the premier starters in the game. Teams would’ve lined up to trade for him just a few years ago. Now, you can probably get him for a medium-level prospect. COST SCORE: 5 VIABILITY This feels like a Twins move. It’s a buy-low opportunity that won’t cost the farm. If the Twins choose a mid-level approach, where they acquire a few relievers and mid-rotation starter, Syndergaard fits that mold. We have yet to see this Twins regime sell out for anybody at the deadline. Top-of-the-line contenders like the Yankees and Astros will likely look elsewhere. That could provide an opportunity for the Twins to scoop up Syndergaard for very little in prospect capital. Of course, Syndergaard is not close to the level of Castillo, Montas, or Tyler Mahle. VIABILITY SCORE: 4 Syndergaard is far from flashy, and he's not a guarantee to remain healthy and effective down the stretch, With the Twins' shaky rotation, he may be worth the low risk. FINAL SCORE: 17 What do you think about Noah Syndergaard? Comment below! View full article
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By Sunday afternoon, teams had to decide whether or not to submit qualifying offers to eligible free agents. Minnesota has its eyes on multiple free agent players, so how does the qualifying offer impact their spending options? According to MLB.com, here is a reminder of the qualifying offer process. “When an eligible player reaches free agency, his former team has the option to extend a one-year offer worth the average salary of the highest-paid 125 players in baseball, which this year is $18.4 million. Players have 10 days to accept or decline; if they accept, they return for 2022 for that $18.4 million; if they decline, they head off into the market as a free agent, with his former team receiving compensation in the form of a Draft pick if they sign elsewhere." Last winter, Kevin Gausman and Marcus Stroman were the only two players to accept the qualifying offer. Both Gausman and Stroman will enter free agency in a much better position than last winter. However, in the previous nine offseasons, only 10 out of 96 players have accepted the deal. For the Twins, their penalty for signing a player is in a group that faces the smallest draft pick penalty. Minnesota is one of 13 teams that receive revenue sharing, so that means they would forfeit their third-highest pick in next year’s draft if they sign a player that received a qualifying offer. If Minnesota signed two qualified free agents, they would forfeit their next highest available draft pick. Some players the Twins might be interested in are not eligible for a qualifying offer because they were traded last season or have previously received a qualifying offer. SS Javier Baez and DH Nelson Cruz were both traded last year, so they are ineligible. Starting pitchers Marcus Stroman, Kevin Gausman, Zack Greinke, and Alex Cobb previously received a qualifying offer. With no qualifying offer attached to these players, more teams will likely be interested in their services since draft pick compensation is not tied to their signing. Many of this year’s top free agents had their teams submit a qualifying offer, including names at positions of need for the Twins. Shortstops Carlos Correa, Trevor Story, Marcus Semien, and Corey Seager all received an offer and are expected to decline. Starting pitchers in that same category include Robbie Ray, Eduardo Rodriguez, and Justin Verlander. Ray will decline the offer as he is headed for a big payday, while Verlander and Rodriguez may consider accepting. Last week, I wrote about how the Twins might be interested in gambling on signing two pitchers coming off of injuries. Noah Syndergaard and Carlos Rodón are both entering this winter in different positions. Syndergaard is just making his way back from Tommy John surgery, which might mean he is interested in a one-year deal to prove he is healthy. Rodón is coming off a career year, but shoulder injuries limited him in the second half. It seems likely for Syndergaard to accept a qualifying offer while Rodón was not issued a qualifying offer. It also sounds like the White Sox are ready to move on from Rodón. Besides Rodon, two other starting pitchers might be surprised that they didn’t receive qualifying offers. Colorado’s Jon Gray and San Francisco’s Anthony DeSclafani are in the second free agent tier that the Twins front office will likely focus on to fill out the rotation. It sounds like Gray was open to accepting a qualifying offer, and that may have persuaded the Rockies from issuing it. DeSclafani is coming off a tremendous season, but some of his StatCast numbers show that he may regress. Many of the qualifying offers mentioned above were likely expected, so nothing should be surprising for Minnesota’s front office. Now the teams will wait to see what players accept or decline the offers. From there, teams can start making their offseason spending plan. Will MLB’s qualifying offer system impact the Twins this winter? Will MLB change their qualifying offer rules? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email View full article
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According to MLB.com, here is a reminder of the qualifying offer process. “When an eligible player reaches free agency, his former team has the option to extend a one-year offer worth the average salary of the highest-paid 125 players in baseball, which this year is $18.4 million. Players have 10 days to accept or decline; if they accept, they return for 2022 for that $18.4 million; if they decline, they head off into the market as a free agent, with his former team receiving compensation in the form of a Draft pick if they sign elsewhere." Last winter, Kevin Gausman and Marcus Stroman were the only two players to accept the qualifying offer. Both Gausman and Stroman will enter free agency in a much better position than last winter. However, in the previous nine offseasons, only 10 out of 96 players have accepted the deal. For the Twins, their penalty for signing a player is in a group that faces the smallest draft pick penalty. Minnesota is one of 13 teams that receive revenue sharing, so that means they would forfeit their third-highest pick in next year’s draft if they sign a player that received a qualifying offer. If Minnesota signed two qualified free agents, they would forfeit their next highest available draft pick. Some players the Twins might be interested in are not eligible for a qualifying offer because they were traded last season or have previously received a qualifying offer. SS Javier Baez and DH Nelson Cruz were both traded last year, so they are ineligible. Starting pitchers Marcus Stroman, Kevin Gausman, Zack Greinke, and Alex Cobb previously received a qualifying offer. With no qualifying offer attached to these players, more teams will likely be interested in their services since draft pick compensation is not tied to their signing. Many of this year’s top free agents had their teams submit a qualifying offer, including names at positions of need for the Twins. Shortstops Carlos Correa, Trevor Story, Marcus Semien, and Corey Seager all received an offer and are expected to decline. Starting pitchers in that same category include Robbie Ray, Eduardo Rodriguez, and Justin Verlander. Ray will decline the offer as he is headed for a big payday, while Verlander and Rodriguez may consider accepting. Last week, I wrote about how the Twins might be interested in gambling on signing two pitchers coming off of injuries. Noah Syndergaard and Carlos Rodón are both entering this winter in different positions. Syndergaard is just making his way back from Tommy John surgery, which might mean he is interested in a one-year deal to prove he is healthy. Rodón is coming off a career year, but shoulder injuries limited him in the second half. It seems likely for Syndergaard to accept a qualifying offer while Rodón was not issued a qualifying offer. It also sounds like the White Sox are ready to move on from Rodón. Besides Rodon, two other starting pitchers might be surprised that they didn’t receive qualifying offers. Colorado’s Jon Gray and San Francisco’s Anthony DeSclafani are in the second free agent tier that the Twins front office will likely focus on to fill out the rotation. It sounds like Gray was open to accepting a qualifying offer, and that may have persuaded the Rockies from issuing it. DeSclafani is coming off a tremendous season, but some of his StatCast numbers show that he may regress. Many of the qualifying offers mentioned above were likely expected, so nothing should be surprising for Minnesota’s front office. Now the teams will wait to see what players accept or decline the offers. From there, teams can start making their offseason spending plan. Will MLB’s qualifying offer system impact the Twins this winter? Will MLB change their qualifying offer rules? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email
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Should the Twins Gamble on Carlos Rodón or Noah Syndergaard?
Cody Christie posted an article in Twins
Injuries are certainly part of baseball’s landscape, and pitchers seem more prone to injuries. That being said, teams can find players looking to rebuild value because of their previous injury history. In recent Twins history, Michael Pineda comes to mind as a player the team signed, knowing he would miss an entire season as he recovered from Tommy John surgery. Flash forward a couple of seasons, and some key free-agent pitchers are looking to return from injury. Noah Syndergaard has spent his entire career in the Mets organization, and he has been on the injured list multiple times throughout his career. Back in 2017, he missed time with a torn lateral muscle. In 2018, he had a torn ligament in his finger, and he contracted hand, foot, and mouth disease. In May 2020, Syndergaard underwent Tommy John surgery, and he had setbacks along the way. He was finally able to make two appearances as a reliever at the end of the 2021 campaign. For his career, Syndergaard has posted a 3.32 ERA with 1.16 WHIP and a 119 ERA+. He gets some of the highest velocity of any starting pitcher since the implementation of StatCast. In each of his first three seasons, he averaged over 10 strikeouts per nine innings, and he has struck out more than 150 batters in four different seasons. When healthy, he is among baseball’s best pitchers. Carlos Rodón is in a slightly different position than Syndergaard. He was non-tendered last winter by the White Sox after dealing with various injuries throughout his career. Some of those injuries included shoulder surgery in 2017 and Tommy John surgery in 2019. Chicago re-signed him last winter, and he earned his first All-Star selection after a tremendous start to the year. However, shoulder soreness knocked him out of the rotation near the season’s end. The 2021 season marked only the third time Rodón has pitched more than 125 innings in a season, and it was his fourth season where he made more than 20 starts. For his career, he has posted a 3.79 ERA with a 1.30 WHIP and a 110 ERA+. His 5.1 WAR from 2021 nearly doubled his career WAR entering last season. Injuries have impacted his entire career, but he has provided value when healthy. Besides their current health, there are other unknowns with both of these players entering the offseason. MLB and the Player’s Union are working on a new collective bargaining agreement. Under the old CBA, teams can make a qualifying offer to players for a one-year contract worth north of $18 million. Players like Syndergaard or Rodón may be willing to accept a deal like that in hopes that they can receive an even bigger free-agent contract following the 2022 season. If Syndergaard wants to sign a multi-year deal this winter, he will likely be getting more than $100 million. In the 2022 Twins Daily Offseason Handbook, he is projected to make $20 million per season. Rodon is projected to earn slightly less per year at $18 million. Syndergaard seems like the safer bet when comparing the two players, but he may also want to sign a one-year deal so he can hit the open market next winter in search of a $200 million contract. Which player do you think the Twins are more likely to target, or do you think the Twins should shy away from the risk? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email -
For the Minnesota Twins to rebuild its starting rotation, the team may have to take a chance on a pitcher returning from injury. So, should the Twins gamble on Carlos Rodón or Noah Syndergaard? Injuries are certainly part of baseball’s landscape, and pitchers seem more prone to injuries. That being said, teams can find players looking to rebuild value because of their previous injury history. In recent Twins history, Michael Pineda comes to mind as a player the team signed, knowing he would miss an entire season as he recovered from Tommy John surgery. Flash forward a couple of seasons, and some key free-agent pitchers are looking to return from injury. Noah Syndergaard has spent his entire career in the Mets organization, and he has been on the injured list multiple times throughout his career. Back in 2017, he missed time with a torn lateral muscle. In 2018, he had a torn ligament in his finger, and he contracted hand, foot, and mouth disease. In May 2020, Syndergaard underwent Tommy John surgery, and he had setbacks along the way. He was finally able to make two appearances as a reliever at the end of the 2021 campaign. For his career, Syndergaard has posted a 3.32 ERA with 1.16 WHIP and a 119 ERA+. He gets some of the highest velocity of any starting pitcher since the implementation of StatCast. In each of his first three seasons, he averaged over 10 strikeouts per nine innings, and he has struck out more than 150 batters in four different seasons. When healthy, he is among baseball’s best pitchers. Carlos Rodón is in a slightly different position than Syndergaard. He was non-tendered last winter by the White Sox after dealing with various injuries throughout his career. Some of those injuries included shoulder surgery in 2017 and Tommy John surgery in 2019. Chicago re-signed him last winter, and he earned his first All-Star selection after a tremendous start to the year. However, shoulder soreness knocked him out of the rotation near the season’s end. The 2021 season marked only the third time Rodón has pitched more than 125 innings in a season, and it was his fourth season where he made more than 20 starts. For his career, he has posted a 3.79 ERA with a 1.30 WHIP and a 110 ERA+. His 5.1 WAR from 2021 nearly doubled his career WAR entering last season. Injuries have impacted his entire career, but he has provided value when healthy. Besides their current health, there are other unknowns with both of these players entering the offseason. MLB and the Player’s Union are working on a new collective bargaining agreement. Under the old CBA, teams can make a qualifying offer to players for a one-year contract worth north of $18 million. Players like Syndergaard or Rodón may be willing to accept a deal like that in hopes that they can receive an even bigger free-agent contract following the 2022 season. If Syndergaard wants to sign a multi-year deal this winter, he will likely be getting more than $100 million. In the 2022 Twins Daily Offseason Handbook, he is projected to make $20 million per season. Rodon is projected to earn slightly less per year at $18 million. Syndergaard seems like the safer bet when comparing the two players, but he may also want to sign a one-year deal so he can hit the open market next winter in search of a $200 million contract. Which player do you think the Twins are more likely to target, or do you think the Twins should shy away from the risk? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email View full article
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Corey Kluber Kluber was heavily linked to the Twins last winter before the Yankees threw $11m at the right hander. Kluber pitched quite well in his first year in the Bronx with a sub 4.00 ERA. Unfortunately after throwing just one inning in 2020, Kluber missed significant time and only reached 80 frames. Kluber is likely a candidate for another one year deal at age 36. He still looked like a valuable pitcher in a tough stadium and division, and a move back to the soft AL Central would do him wonders. He may not be counted on for a significant amount of innings, but pairing him with a pitcher like Michael Pineda would be valuable. There’s upside to be had similar to the Twins 2020 Rich Hill signing, upside the Twins will surely be looking for in order for a bounce back in their pitching staff. Marcus Stroman The Twins were bullish on Stroman in 2019 when the Blue Jays eventually shipped him to the Mets. The Twins claimed Toronto never returned their call for a counter offer. Stroman wasn’t much help in 2020 but performed exceptionally well in 2021 with a 3.02 ERA in almost 180 innings. Stroman would definitely require a long term deal with some good money attached. He may not be a flat out ace, but he’s a durable, experienced arm. His reliance on movement, location, and weak contact should make him a valuable pitcher for the foreseeable future now that he’s surpassed 30 years of age. He’d also immediately slot in as an Opening Day starter and top of the rotation anchor. Noah Syndergaard Digging way into the well here, remember when the Twins were in on Noah Syndergaard in 2019 and the Mets wanted Byron Buxton in exchange? I’m sure no fans were angry at the Twins for not pulling the trigger, right? Syndergaard has a storied past when it comes to injury, most recently returning from Tommy John just this year. The result of this being there isn’t much of a body of work to see since 2019. It’s hard to forget the arm they call “Thor” throwing one 100 mph fastball after another. While never quite an ace, it’s hard to deny that the upside is there. With Syndergaard's recent history, he’s another candidate for a one year “show me” deal. It may be high risk, but there may not be a pitcher on the market with a higher potential payoff. The Twins will be looking high and low on both the free agent and trade market this winter to try to fix a pitching staff that straight up cost them any shot at contending in 2021. It wouldn’t be the most surprising development to go back to the well and revisit some arms they were previously interested in. Is there any one of this trio that stands above the rest? Should these three be avoided altogether? Let us know below! — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email — Follow Cody Pirkl on Twitter here
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The ongoing joke about the Twins is how often they’re rumored to be in on a player but don’t wind up with them. This winter they have a chance to make good on their past links with three such pitchers. Corey Kluber Kluber was heavily linked to the Twins last winter before the Yankees threw $11m at the right hander. Kluber pitched quite well in his first year in the Bronx with a sub 4.00 ERA. Unfortunately after throwing just one inning in 2020, Kluber missed significant time and only reached 80 frames. Kluber is likely a candidate for another one year deal at age 36. He still looked like a valuable pitcher in a tough stadium and division, and a move back to the soft AL Central would do him wonders. He may not be counted on for a significant amount of innings, but pairing him with a pitcher like Michael Pineda would be valuable. There’s upside to be had similar to the Twins 2020 Rich Hill signing, upside the Twins will surely be looking for in order for a bounce back in their pitching staff. Marcus Stroman The Twins were bullish on Stroman in 2019 when the Blue Jays eventually shipped him to the Mets. The Twins claimed Toronto never returned their call for a counter offer. Stroman wasn’t much help in 2020 but performed exceptionally well in 2021 with a 3.02 ERA in almost 180 innings. Stroman would definitely require a long term deal with some good money attached. He may not be a flat out ace, but he’s a durable, experienced arm. His reliance on movement, location, and weak contact should make him a valuable pitcher for the foreseeable future now that he’s surpassed 30 years of age. He’d also immediately slot in as an Opening Day starter and top of the rotation anchor. Noah Syndergaard Digging way into the well here, remember when the Twins were in on Noah Syndergaard in 2019 and the Mets wanted Byron Buxton in exchange? I’m sure no fans were angry at the Twins for not pulling the trigger, right? Syndergaard has a storied past when it comes to injury, most recently returning from Tommy John just this year. The result of this being there isn’t much of a body of work to see since 2019. It’s hard to forget the arm they call “Thor” throwing one 100 mph fastball after another. While never quite an ace, it’s hard to deny that the upside is there. With Syndergaard's recent history, he’s another candidate for a one year “show me” deal. It may be high risk, but there may not be a pitcher on the market with a higher potential payoff. The Twins will be looking high and low on both the free agent and trade market this winter to try to fix a pitching staff that straight up cost them any shot at contending in 2021. It wouldn’t be the most surprising development to go back to the well and revisit some arms they were previously interested in. Is there any one of this trio that stands above the rest? Should these three be avoided altogether? Let us know below! — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email — Follow Cody Pirkl on Twitter here View full article
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Aaron and John talk about actual Twins roster moves (sort of), a new view of the Buxton-for-Syndergaard rumors, a baseball season possibly starting soon in South Korea, and Aaron's stint as the Twins' baseball manager. You can listen by downloading us from iTunes, Spotify, Stitcher, iHeartRadio or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. Or just click this link. PLAY GLEEMAN AND THE GEEK Click here to view the article
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Zach Moen is 43. The Chaska native has been following the Minnesota Twins his entire life. His focus since the team’s humbling playoff exit has been singular: Improvements to the team’s starting rotation. With free agency a bust and the prospect of swinging a blockbuster trade daunting, he turned to an unlikely source for help.“You know how in some department stores at the mall they have a little table and mailbox for writing letters to Santa,” said Moen. “I didn’t see an age limit sign anywhere, so I grabbed a blue crayon and got to work.” Moen, who admits that he was previously very skeptical of the portly saint’s existence, said it was just one way in which he harnessed the power of dreams and wishes to fulfill his favorite team’s most urgent need this holiday season. “I think most people agree that it’s weird to go to the mall and see a grown-ass man sitting on Santa’s lap,” said Moen. “But isn’t it weirder to have ample payroll to add any starting pitcher you want and not doing so? I went to Rosedale with purpose and resolve: To ask Santa for a new pitcher. “I didn’t sit on his lap, by the way, I’m not a weirdo,” Moen added. “I just kneeled down and quietly but very firmly told him what I wanted. An elf named Tyler told me I needed to leave or he was going to call his manager, but I said what needed saying.” Despite similar results at other malls (“You get used to the looks and security escorting you back to your car”), Moen entered Christmas Eve optimistic and prepared. “So NORAD has this Santa Tracker, where they track the reindeer and Santa’s sleigh as they deliver gifts,” said Moen. “And you can watch it online. What I did on Christmas was zero in on the radar image of the sleigh itself. You can see the jolly old elf and the overstuffed sack of toys clear as day. But that sleigh is a two-seater. Who’s that second seat for? Mrs. Claus doesn’t go on these trips. Noah Syndergaard, maybe? I’m just asking questions.” When Christmas Day dawned and no transaction news came with it, Moen was disappointed but did not lose faith. “It was a bummer, there’s no two ways about it,” said Moen. “But you have to look at it logically, too. The way I see it, the player’s union will probably raise hell if a team puts a player on an unlicensed aircraft flown by magic animals over the holidays for the purposes of a trade. It’ll be way easier to do it through the traditional channels this weekend or first thing Monday. I expect we’ll find out soon enough.” Click here to view the article
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“You know how in some department stores at the mall they have a little table and mailbox for writing letters to Santa,” said Moen. “I didn’t see an age limit sign anywhere, so I grabbed a blue crayon and got to work.” Moen, who admits that he was previously very skeptical of the portly saint’s existence, said it was just one way in which he harnessed the power of dreams and wishes to fulfill his favorite team’s most urgent need this holiday season. “I think most people agree that it’s weird to go to the mall and see a grown-ass man sitting on Santa’s lap,” said Moen. “But isn’t it weirder to have ample payroll to add any starting pitcher you want and not doing so? I went to Rosedale with purpose and resolve: To ask Santa for a new pitcher. “I didn’t sit on his lap, by the way, I’m not a weirdo,” Moen added. “I just kneeled down and quietly but very firmly told him what I wanted. An elf named Tyler told me I needed to leave or he was going to call his manager, but I said what needed saying.” Despite similar results at other malls (“You get used to the looks and security escorting you back to your car”), Moen entered Christmas Eve optimistic and prepared. “So NORAD has this Santa Tracker, where they track the reindeer and Santa’s sleigh as they deliver gifts,” said Moen. “And you can watch it online. What I did on Christmas was zero in on the radar image of the sleigh itself. You can see the jolly old elf and the overstuffed sack of toys clear as day. But that sleigh is a two-seater. Who’s that second seat for? Mrs. Claus doesn’t go on these trips. Noah Syndergaard, maybe? I’m just asking questions.” When Christmas Day dawned and no transaction news came with it, Moen was disappointed but did not lose faith. “It was a bummer, there’s no two ways about it,” said Moen. “But you have to look at it logically, too. The way I see it, the player’s union will probably raise hell if a team puts a player on an unlicensed aircraft flown by magic animals over the holidays for the purposes of a trade. It’ll be way easier to do it through the traditional channels this weekend or first thing Monday. I expect we’ll find out soon enough.”
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If there was a misstep by the front office at the deadline, it was missing on the Toronto Blue Jays' Marcus Stroman. Maybe the Canadians never circled back, but Minnesota easily could have trumped the New York offer. Eventually they pivoted to talking with the Mets directly, and the man coined Thor reportedly came up in talks. Byron Buxton was the ask, and that was out of the question. Injury makes it easy to judge that in hindsight, but it remains a logical position from the Twins brass. What if there was another way to do that deal though? Parting ways with Byron Buxton in the middle of a record-breaking season would have been asinine for the Twins. Flipping him off of an injury, while he still looks the part of a superstar due to his exploits in the field and rise at the dish, would remain an odd proposition. If Syndergaard was on the table then though, he may still remain so, and going the route of quantity could be enough to reach the finish line. The key for the Mets during the season was an acquisition of major league-ready players. They have just lost Zack Wheeler, and had parted with top prospects to bring in an aging Robinson Cano. Despite being in the big city, Carlos Beltran’s squad remains the kid brother to the Bronx Bombers. Rebuilding the overall talent pool is something that Brodie van Wagenen should be focused on, and a plethora of impact prospects would certainly advance that possibility. Syndergaard is under team control for two more seasons, at which point he’ll be entering his age-29 season. He will soon become quite expensive, and that would need to be a consideration for any acquiring team as well. Blending a return that satisfies some immediate assistance with future gain is the way I’d attack this if I were the Twins. Mets receive: Eddie Rosario, Trevor Larnach, Blayne Enlow, and Travis Blankenhorn Twins receive: Noah Syndergaard In this scenario Minnesota is giving up a current big leaguer who has posted just shy of 8.0 fWAR over the past three seasons in Rosario. He’s a left-handed bat that would immediately boost the New York outfield, and at 28-years-old, becomes an extension candidate should things trend upwards prior to his free agency in 2022. A former first-round pick and current top 100 prospect, Trevor Larnach represents future value that is very close to paying dividends. He’s a power corner guy with a pretty safe floor. Moving to the second half of the deal, New York would be looking to cash in on the ceiling. Enlow was an above slot deal back in 2017 and has looked the part at each level. He’s still a developing arm, but a 50 future value makes him an intriguing option in the middle of a rotation. Blankenhorn could end up being more of a utility guy, but there is a lot to like in his profile. He does a lot of things well and looks like a pretty safe bet to contribute at the major league level. Certainly, this is a haul for the Twins to part with, but they’d be doing so to acquire a bona fide ace. Ideally an extension could be worked out with Syndergaard but that’s probably a lofty ask given the impending payday coming on the open market. Pairing the current roster with a solid number one could be the needle-moving decision that strengthens a likely postseason battle with the Yankees in each of the next two seasons. No matter how Minnesota ends up acquiring the impact arm they talked about heading into the offseason, a level of risk and decisive action will need to be taken. Hyun-Jin Ryu is among the small list of names still warranting a hefty payday, while prospect capital or eating salary from another organization represent the alternative modes of spend. The trade market is a difficult one to nail down. Between having multiple options (of which some very intriguing scenarios were recently presented by Skor North’s Jake Depue), and uncertain returns (looking at you Cleveland Indians), we really never know what to expect. How would you feel about this move, and what would you do differently? MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email
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Derek Falvey did a tremendous job of acquiring some initial relief help in the form of Sergio Romo. He looked like a fit for this club over the winter and netting him along with another intriguing prospect for a guy who was subject to 40-man addition is quite the execution. If we can expect that strength of process in future deals, then this club should be in good shape. The front office has displayed plenty of evidence that they operate at a very high level, but it’d be a massive misstep not to see it in action at least one more time. LaVelle E. Neal has reported that the Twins were looking for impact starters if they were going to make a move there. Marcus Stroman was a name they were in on, but the Toronto Blue Jays never circled back before accepting a lackluster offer. Noah Syndergaard is another name Minnesota has targeted, but the Mets wanted catalyst Byron Buxton to headline the return. Now seemingly out on starting pitching, the attention turns back to where it’s been needed all along. Romo represents a solid addition that should take some pressure off Taylor Rogers, but the next arm in needs to be another tier up. Continuing to add talent that slots in at the height of the talent pool and raises the bottom rung is the way in which Minnesota should operate. Any acquisition can’t fall in line with dart throws like Matt Magill, Mike Morin, or Blake Parker. Entering the final stretch and needing significant contributions in the Postseason, these arms need to be heavily reliable from the get-go. It’s a pretty risky proposition to ever give up significant prospect capital for relief pitching. There are some very strong options that are under team control going forward however (Kirby Yates, Felipe Vasquez, Raisel Iglesias, Edwin Diaz, etc) and asking on those pieces first should be a must. Will Smith still represents an immediate band-aid and should require a muted return given the impending free agency. Despite what the Giants think they may be, getting them to sell that piece would certainly be a win for a true contender. Trusting in the blueprint and belief from this front office it’d be hard to question anyone they see an ability to squeeze more from. Wes Johnson has gotten quite a bit out of some unexpected places this season, but time and remaining schedule are both of the essence at this point. I think there’s real reason to believe an Archie Bradley or Mychal Givens could be high level additions that more is gained from both now and in the future. The area Minnesota can’t afford to settle is in the land of Daniel Hudson. Sure, he’s available and a piece, but that’s not the type of acquisition a team preaching opportunity should be agreeing to. After suggesting all offseason that they would go when the team was ready, Falvey will have a hard time selling a smoke and mirrors arm as the final piece of the puzzle. Peripherals matter and although Hudson, or someone like him, may have strong surface numbers a significant amount of impending regression should be cause for concern. I’d circle back once or twice on the man known as Thor and see if Brodie Van Wagenen has gotten back on his rocker yet. If that is out of the question or eating salary to take on Zack Greinke isn’t an option, then adding two more relief arms is how this should work out. Go get Will Smith if you don’t feel the top-tier controllable arms are worth the squeeze. Then add in another Sergio Romo type, or someone a bit more under the radar, and call it a day. Falvey has a team that’s very close, and next to nothing they can do is going to sacrifice 2020 and beyond. Failing to capitalize on this position while other contenders push their chips towards the middle could represent the setback everyone is trying to avoid. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY Could the Twins Afford to Take on Zack Greinke’s Contract? For Enlow and Other Minor Leaguers, “No One Is Safe” At Trade Deadline Is Alex Kirilloff Expendable? Let's Make A Deal, Part III: The Ammunition Trade Deadline Thread: How Far Would You Go to Add an Ace? What Sergio Romo Brings to the Twins Bullpen
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Friday, La Velle E. Neal III of the Star Tribune reported that the Mets asking price for Noah Syndergaard is sky high. According Neal’s sources, the Mets are “eyeing both Lewis and Kirilloff as part of a package for Syndergaard.” Wow. Royce Lewis AND Alex Kirilloff ... and that’s just PART of the package? Last night, La Velle passed along another trade tidbit, saying that the Mets’ asking price included Byron Buxton. It’s not at all surprising the Twins were “turned off” by that price, but from the Mets’ perspective, the worst thing that could happen is the Twins say no. Why not ask, right? Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported that an executive who has communicated with the Mets said “They are definitely trading Syndergaard.” If that truly is the case, the Mets front office will need to lower its asking price, but they can certainly expect to command a hefty return for the 26-year-old Syndergaard, who still has two more seasons of team control. The beauty of the deadline is this will all have to be resolved one way or another by 3 pm CT tomorrow afternoon. La Velle’s piece called Syndergaard a target “no longer viable,” but only time will tell. That price may drop. Among the bullpen targets the Twins could pivot to, Neal listed Kirby Yates, Greg Holland, Archie Bradley and Mychal Givens. What do I think is going to happen? Well, here’s nearly 15 minutes of me sharing my thoughts on the deadline, the front office’s intentions and some of what my expectations are. This could end up looking really, really bad. It’s so difficult to even guess what may happen, since this is the first real contending Twins team of the Derek Falvey era. To answer my own question purposed in the headline, the furthest I’d personally go to trade for an ace-calibur pitcher would be Alex Kirilloff as the marquee piece. Cody wrote an article last night that asked Is Alex Kirilloff Expendale? I think to a certain degree he is. That’s much less of a shot at Alex as it is an indication of how stacked this organization is with corner outfield/first base options right now. It’s not that I view Lewis as completely untouchable, but it’d take multiple good, long-term pieces coming back. There’s a chance Royce both reaches his ceiling and stays at shortstop. If that happens, he’ll be among the most valuable players in the league. It’d take a lot to walk away from that. Not that I don’t believe in Alex. There’s no questioning his feel for hitting, and I think he’s more athletic than most people give him credit for, but corner outfielders or first basemen are easy to find, relatively speaking. C.J. Cron hit 30 homers and was non-tendered. The entire current Twins outfield will remain in tact for multiple seasons and there are some other attractive outfielders in the pipeline as well. If the Twins end up aiming lower on the trade market, there are reasons why I could understand that. This is the first year on the job for Rocco Baldelli, Wes Johnson and Jeremy Hefner. This is a franchise on the rise, not one who sees its window closing. A lot of the players carrying this team right now will be around for years to come and the minor league system ranks among the best in the game. That doesn’t guarantee you anything, but I feel like there’s a very good chance we’re entering an extended period of sustained winning baseball in Twins Territory. Even if they aim gets lower, this front office still has plenty of incentive to make some moves. In mid-June, I wrote about the potential impending roster crunch this offseason. Lewin Diaz was among the guys I mentioned who needed to be added to the 40-man roster at the end of the season. He’s already been shipped out to Miami. Beyond all the top prospects is a nice tier of players that should be attractive to a team who has a barren system. Ben Rortvedt, Ryan Jeffers, Jose Miranda and (though he’s injured right now) Travis Blankenhorn could be dangled for more pitching help. Guys performing in Triple-A like Nick Gordon or Jaylin Davis would have some appeal to certain teams. And those are just some of the bats. This is going to sound harsh, but it wouldn’t take a lot to improve the outlook of the Twins bullpen right now. Even marginal upgrades would go a long way. They’ve looked good at times, but it’s just not realistic to roll with rookies Lewis Thorpe, Sean Poppen and Cody Stashak in the bullpen down the stretch. So while the market for a top of the rotation starter may seem steep right now, there’s still time for things to change. If prices don't come down, I still fully expect the Twins to make multiple moves between now and the deadline, given their incentive to clear some room. I still can’t believe how quiet things have been league-wide to this point. Things could get nuts leading up to tomorrow’s 3 pm CT deadline. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY Twins Moving on From SP Trade Targets? What Sergio Romo Brings to the Twins Bullpen Could the Twins Afford to Take on Zack Greinke’s Contract? Trade Deadline Thread: The Rumor Mill is Working Overtime Trade Deadline Topics: Prospects, Scouting, Rumors Trade Deadline Thread: What To Do About the Rotation? The Gauntlet 1.2; A Complete Breakdown of the Top Relief Arms For Enlow and Other Minor Leaguers, “No One Is Safe” At Trade Deadline Twins Won't Rule Out Trading For Lance Lynn JEREMY'S DEADLINE SERIES (Part VI Coming Soon) Let's Make A Deal, Part V: Are We Getting Noah Syndergaard or Someone Else? Let's Make A Deal, Part IV: The Sellers Let's Make A Deal, Part III: The Ammunition Let's Make A Deal, Part II: Payroll Let's Make A Deal, Part I: 2020
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It’s clear this 2019 Twins lineup is special. The pitching staff? Not quite. How far would you be willing to go for balance? Would you trade Royce Lewis? Alex Kirilloff? How about both? Would you trade Byron Buxton? Reports are indicating that's what it will take to land Noah Syndergaard.Friday, La Velle E. Neal III of the Star Tribune reported that the Mets asking price for Noah Syndergaard is sky high. According Neal’s sources, the Mets are “eyeing both Lewis and Kirilloff as part of a package for Syndergaard.” Wow. Royce Lewis AND Alex Kirilloff ... and that’s just PART of the package? Last night, La Velle passed along another trade tidbit, saying that the Mets’ asking price included Byron Buxton. It’s not at all surprising the Twins were “turned off” by that price, but from the Mets’ perspective, the worst thing that could happen is the Twins say no. Why not ask, right? Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported that an executive who has communicated with the Mets said “They are definitely trading Syndergaard.” If that truly is the case, the Mets front office will need to lower its asking price, but they can certainly expect to command a hefty return for the 26-year-old Syndergaard, who still has two more seasons of team control. The beauty of the deadline is this will all have to be resolved one way or another by 3 pm CT tomorrow afternoon. La Velle’s piece called Syndergaard a target “no longer viable,” but only time will tell. That price may drop. Among the bullpen targets the Twins could pivot to, Neal listed Kirby Yates, Greg Holland, Archie Bradley and Mychal Givens. What do I think is going to happen? Well, here’s nearly 15 minutes of me sharing my thoughts on the deadline, the front office’s intentions and some of what my expectations are. This could end up looking really, really bad. It’s so difficult to even guess what may happen, since this is the first real contending Twins team of the Derek Falvey era. To answer my own question purposed in the headline, the furthest I’d personally go to trade for an ace-calibur pitcher would be Alex Kirilloff as the marquee piece. Cody wrote an article last night that asked Is Alex Kirilloff Expendale? I think to a certain degree he is. That’s much less of a shot at Alex as it is an indication of how stacked this organization is with corner outfield/first base options right now. It’s not that I view Lewis as completely untouchable, but it’d take multiple good, long-term pieces coming back. There’s a chance Royce both reaches his ceiling and stays at shortstop. If that happens, he’ll be among the most valuable players in the league. It’d take a lot to walk away from that. Not that I don’t believe in Alex. There’s no questioning his feel for hitting, and I think he’s more athletic than most people give him credit for, but corner outfielders or first basemen are easy to find, relatively speaking. C.J. Cron hit 30 homers and was non-tendered. The entire current Twins outfield will remain in tact for multiple seasons and there are some other attractive outfielders in the pipeline as well. If the Twins end up aiming lower on the trade market, there are reasons why I could understand that. This is the first year on the job for Rocco Baldelli, Wes Johnson and Jeremy Hefner. This is a franchise on the rise, not one who sees its window closing. A lot of the players carrying this team right now will be around for years to come and the minor league system ranks among the best in the game. That doesn’t guarantee you anything, but I feel like there’s a very good chance we’re entering an extended period of sustained winning baseball in Twins Territory. Even if they aim gets lower, this front office still has plenty of incentive to make some moves. In mid-June, I wrote about the potential impending roster crunch this offseason. Lewin Diaz was among the guys I mentioned who needed to be added to the 40-man roster at the end of the season. He’s already been shipped out to Miami. Beyond all the top prospects is a nice tier of players that should be attractive to a team who has a barren system. Ben Rortvedt, Ryan Jeffers, Jose Miranda and (though he’s injured right now) Travis Blankenhorn could be dangled for more pitching help. Guys performing in Triple-A like Nick Gordon or Jaylin Davis would have some appeal to certain teams. And those are just some of the bats. This is going to sound harsh, but it wouldn’t take a lot to improve the outlook of the Twins bullpen right now. Even marginal upgrades would go a long way. They’ve looked good at times, but it’s just not realistic to roll with rookies Lewis Thorpe, Sean Poppen and Cody Stashak in the bullpen down the stretch. So while the market for a top of the rotation starter may seem steep right now, there’s still time for things to change. If prices don't come down, I still fully expect the Twins to make multiple moves between now and the deadline, given their incentive to clear some room. I still can’t believe how quiet things have been league-wide to this point. Things could get nuts leading up to tomorrow’s 3 pm CT deadline. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY Twins Moving on From SP Trade Targets? What Sergio Romo Brings to the Twins Bullpen Could the Twins Afford to Take on Zack Greinke’s Contract? Trade Deadline Thread: The Rumor Mill is Working Overtime Trade Deadline Topics: Prospects, Scouting, Rumors Trade Deadline Thread: What To Do About the Rotation? The Gauntlet 1.2; A Complete Breakdown of the Top Relief Arms For Enlow and Other Minor Leaguers, “No One Is Safe” At Trade Deadline Twins Won't Rule Out Trading For Lance Lynn JEREMY'S DEADLINE SERIES (Part VI Coming Soon) Let's Make A Deal, Part V: Are We Getting Noah Syndergaard or Someone Else? Let's Make A Deal, Part IV: The Sellers Let's Make A Deal, Part III: The Ammunition Let's Make A Deal, Part II: Payroll Let's Make A Deal, Part I: 2020 Click here to view the article
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Every year MLB Trade Rumors makes a list of the top 75 trade candidates in the days and weeks leading up to the July 31st trade deadline. They update the list multiple times as the deadline approaches and their final list was posted earlier today. As they alluded to in the post, “Essentially, we’re ordering players based upon our assessment of both their trade value and likelihood of being dealt.” How many of the top 75 trade candidates will be dealt before Wednesday? Could any of them end up in MinnesotaMinnesota’s needs are almost exclusively related to adding pitching and that means a good portion of the top-75 are position players and not viable trade options. According to MLBTR, Zack Wheeler (Mets) is ranked as the number one trade candidate. He’s a free agent at season’s end and the Mets aren’t going anywhere this season. Rumors swirling on Tuesday have the Astros as the favorite to land Wheeler. The Twins might be more interested in adding a non-rental pitcher to their starting rotation. Out of Minnesota’s current rotation, Kyle Gibson, Jake Odorizzi and Michael Pineda can all be free agents this off-season. This leaves players in MLBTR’s 5-7 range like Noah Syndergaard (Mets), Mike Minor (Rangers) and Robbie Ray (Diamondbacks). Would you trade Byron Buxton to get Syndergaard? All these teams have a chance to be in contention next year so it will likely take a high offer to pry these starters away from their current organizations. MLBTR’s finishes out their top-10 with controllable relievers like Shane Greene (Tigers), Edwin Diaz (Mets) and Felipe Vazquez (Pirates). It doesn’t seem likely for the Twins to be interested in these types of relievers because they will come with a hefty price tag. Relief pitching can be fickle so it doesn’t make sense to spend a lot of prospect capital on players that might not produce in the coming years. Two intriguing relief options fall into the 14-15 range. Mychal Givens (Orioles) and Raisel Iglesias (Reds) have seen some struggles this year but the have shown some success in the past. Could Wes Johnson waive his magic wand and fix either of these two? Other rental relief arms come in at 19-25 in the rankings. Craig Stammen (Padres), Daniel Hudson (Blue Jays), Greg Holland (Diamondbacks), Francisco Liriano (Pirates), Chris Martin (Rangers), David Hernandez (Reds) and Jared Hughes (Reds) could all add something to Minnesota’s bullpen. Adding Liriano back to the Twins could be a fun reunion, especially if he can help the team win in October. His arm injury back in 2006 might have cost the Twins a long playoff run. Here are some of the other possible Twins targets: 30. Roenis Elias (Mariners): Has some closing experience in Seattle and could serve as another late inning relief option. 32. Zack Greinke (Diamondbacks): Twins are on his no trade list and he is owed a lot of money in the years ahead. If he waived his no-trade clause, he could cost fewer prospects because of the money left on his deal. 43. Kirby Yates (Padres): San Diego hasn’t had his name out in the rumor mill and there has even been talk of the Padres adding players at the deadline. Yates is one of the best relievers that could be available. 44. Andrew Chafin (Diamondbacks): His 11.1 SO/9 is his highest total since 2016 and his 3.2 BB/9 is a career best. Minnesota needs another lefty in the ‘pen and Chafin might make sense. There are plenty of other possible Twins additions on the top 75 list. What name(s) stand out to you? Could the Twins end up with multiple players on this list? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. Other Stories of Interest Is Alex Kirilloff Expendable? What Sergio Romo Brings to the Twins Bullpen The Making of Max Power Click here to view the article
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- zack wheeler
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Minnesota’s needs are almost exclusively related to adding pitching and that means a good portion of the top-75 are position players and not viable trade options. According to MLBTR, Zack Wheeler (Mets) is ranked as the number one trade candidate. He’s a free agent at season’s end and the Mets aren’t going anywhere this season. Rumors swirling on Tuesday have the Astros as the favorite to land Wheeler. The Twins might be more interested in adding a non-rental pitcher to their starting rotation. Out of Minnesota’s current rotation, Kyle Gibson, Jake Odorizzi and Michael Pineda can all be free agents this off-season. This leaves players in MLBTR’s 5-7 range like Noah Syndergaard (Mets), Mike Minor (Rangers) and Robbie Ray (Diamondbacks). Would you trade Byron Buxton to get Syndergaard? All these teams have a chance to be in contention next year so it will likely take a high offer to pry these starters away from their current organizations. MLBTR’s finishes out their top-10 with controllable relievers like Shane Greene (Tigers), Edwin Diaz (Mets) and Felipe Vazquez (Pirates). It doesn’t seem likely for the Twins to be interested in these types of relievers because they will come with a hefty price tag. Relief pitching can be fickle so it doesn’t make sense to spend a lot of prospect capital on players that might not produce in the coming years. Two intriguing relief options fall into the 14-15 range. Mychal Givens (Orioles) and Raisel Iglesias (Reds) have seen some struggles this year but the have shown some success in the past. Could Wes Johnson waive his magic wand and fix either of these two? Other rental relief arms come in at 19-25 in the rankings. Craig Stammen (Padres), Daniel Hudson (Blue Jays), Greg Holland (Diamondbacks), Francisco Liriano (Pirates), Chris Martin (Rangers), David Hernandez (Reds) and Jared Hughes (Reds) could all add something to Minnesota’s bullpen. Adding Liriano back to the Twins could be a fun reunion, especially if he can help the team win in October. His arm injury back in 2006 might have cost the Twins a long playoff run. Here are some of the other possible Twins targets: 30. Roenis Elias (Mariners): Has some closing experience in Seattle and could serve as another late inning relief option. 32. Zack Greinke (Diamondbacks): Twins are on his no trade list and he is owed a lot of money in the years ahead. If he waived his no-trade clause, he could cost fewer prospects because of the money left on his deal. 43. Kirby Yates (Padres): San Diego hasn’t had his name out in the rumor mill and there has even been talk of the Padres adding players at the deadline. Yates is one of the best relievers that could be available. 44. Andrew Chafin (Diamondbacks): His 11.1 SO/9 is his highest total since 2016 and his 3.2 BB/9 is a career best. Minnesota needs another lefty in the ‘pen and Chafin might make sense. There are plenty of other possible Twins additions on the top 75 list. What name(s) stand out to you? Could the Twins end up with multiple players on this list? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. Other Stories of Interest Is Alex Kirilloff Expendable? What Sergio Romo Brings to the Twins Bullpen The Making of Max Power
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Minnesota’s line-up full of Bomba Squad members is hitting home runs at a record pace. While some of the home run power has been home grown, other players like Nelson Cruz, CJ Cron, Marwin Gonzalez and Jonathan Schoop were added to supplement the power hitting barrage. The Twins were able to find these players on the open market to fill multiple spots on their roster. If players like this can be found on the open market, does that make a prospect like Alex Kirilloff expendable?Offensive Power Kirilloff is coming off one of Minnesota’s best seasons ever for a minor league player. Between Low- and High-A, he hit .348/.392/.578 with 71 extra-base hits in 130 games. He also showed a decent approach at the plate as he posted an 86 to 28 strikeout to walk ratio. By season’s end, Kirilloff would be named MiLB’s Breakout Prospect of the Year and the Twins awarded him the Sherry Robertson Award as the team’s Minor League Player of the Year. It was going to be hard for Kirilloff to repeat his 2018 campaign, especially since the Twins decided to be aggressive with him to start the year. He only played 65 games in the Florida State League to end 2018 and the organization still sent him to Pensacola to begin the year. In 65 games at that level, he has hit .271/.336/.384 with 19 extra-base hits and a 60 to 21 strikeout to walk ratio. Some of his offensive struggles this season have resulted from multiple trips to the injured list with a wrist injury. For batters, wrist injuries can be a nagging and follow a player through an entire season. Since returning from the IL on June 20, he has a .686 OPS with nine extra-base hits in 36 games. He has failed to draw a walk in each of his last 18 games. Defensive Questions Kirilloff’s bat tool has always been his key to making it to the big leagues. Throughout his professional career, he has spent the majority of his defensive innings in right field. There have been a few opportunities for him to play in both other outfield positions and he has played over 180 innings at first base this year. It still seems most likely for him to stick at a corner outfield spot in the years ahead. Minnesota is amid a tight race for the top of the AL Central and prospect like Kirilloff can hold a lot of value at this time of year. If the right deal comes along, Kirilloff should be a prospect the Twins consider selling. This doesn’t mean the front office should give him away for a mid-level relief prospect. However, the club needs another starter to go deep into October and Kirilloff could be a center piece to a big-time trade. He would currently be in line to play a corner outfield spot, but Minnesota has some other strong players already occupying those places in the line-up. Max Kepler, the team’s current right fielder, leads the team with 28 home runs and he has team’s second highest WAR total behind Jorge Polanco. Kepler also signed an extension this off-season that could keep him with the Twins through 2024. On the other side of the outfield, Eddie Rosario has certainly evolved into one of the team’s leaders. He has hit .280/.307/.514 with 38 extra-base hits including one of the most memorable home runs in recent Twins history. The 27-year old is still arbitration eligible and the earliest he can reach free agency is 2022. With both corner outfield spots occupied, the Twins might have to get creative to fit Kepler, Rosario, and Kirilloff into the same line-up. First base seems like a natural spot for Kepler or Kirilloff to end up, but the Twins might also need to play Miguel Sano at first in the years ahead. While using one of these players at first is an option, Minnesota showed this year that a team can find a first baseman like CJ Cron without giving anything up in return. Deadline Deal? It seems unlikely for the front office to move any of the team’s top prospects unless the club is acquiring a starting pitcher with multiple years of team control. Some players that fit this mold would be the Mets’ Noah Syndergaard (team control through 2021) and the Tigers’ Matthew Boyd (2022). According to the Star Tribune’s La Velle E. Neal, the Mets are asking for both Royce Lewis and Kirilloff in any potential trade for Syndergaard. This seems like a king’s ransom for the right-handed hurler, but it’s tough to know what the Mets are thinking at this point. Already this week, the club acquired one of the top available pitchers, Marcus Stroman from the Blue Jays. Could the Mets asking price decrease before Wednesday? Could they settle for Kirilloff along with other players not named Royce Lewis? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. Click here to view the article
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- alex kirilloff
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Offensive Power Kirilloff is coming off one of Minnesota’s best seasons ever for a minor league player. Between Low- and High-A, he hit .348/.392/.578 with 71 extra-base hits in 130 games. He also showed a decent approach at the plate as he posted an 86 to 28 strikeout to walk ratio. By season’s end, Kirilloff would be named MiLB’s Breakout Prospect of the Year and the Twins awarded him the Sherry Robertson Award as the team’s Minor League Player of the Year. It was going to be hard for Kirilloff to repeat his 2018 campaign, especially since the Twins decided to be aggressive with him to start the year. He only played 65 games in the Florida State League to end 2018 and the organization still sent him to Pensacola to begin the year. In 65 games at that level, he has hit .271/.336/.384 with 19 extra-base hits and a 60 to 21 strikeout to walk ratio. Some of his offensive struggles this season have resulted from multiple trips to the injured list with a wrist injury. For batters, wrist injuries can be a nagging and follow a player through an entire season. Since returning from the IL on June 20, he has a .686 OPS with nine extra-base hits in 36 games. He has failed to draw a walk in each of his last 18 games. Defensive Questions Kirilloff’s bat tool has always been his key to making it to the big leagues. Throughout his professional career, he has spent the majority of his defensive innings in right field. There have been a few opportunities for him to play in both other outfield positions and he has played over 180 innings at first base this year. It still seems most likely for him to stick at a corner outfield spot in the years ahead. Minnesota is amid a tight race for the top of the AL Central and prospect like Kirilloff can hold a lot of value at this time of year. If the right deal comes along, Kirilloff should be a prospect the Twins consider selling. This doesn’t mean the front office should give him away for a mid-level relief prospect. However, the club needs another starter to go deep into October and Kirilloff could be a center piece to a big-time trade. He would currently be in line to play a corner outfield spot, but Minnesota has some other strong players already occupying those places in the line-up. Max Kepler, the team’s current right fielder, leads the team with 28 home runs and he has team’s second highest WAR total behind Jorge Polanco. Kepler also signed an extension this off-season that could keep him with the Twins through 2024. On the other side of the outfield, Eddie Rosario has certainly evolved into one of the team’s leaders. He has hit .280/.307/.514 with 38 extra-base hits including one of the most memorable home runs in recent Twins history. The 27-year old is still arbitration eligible and the earliest he can reach free agency is 2022. With both corner outfield spots occupied, the Twins might have to get creative to fit Kepler, Rosario, and Kirilloff into the same line-up. First base seems like a natural spot for Kepler or Kirilloff to end up, but the Twins might also need to play Miguel Sano at first in the years ahead. While using one of these players at first is an option, Minnesota showed this year that a team can find a first baseman like CJ Cron without giving anything up in return. Deadline Deal? It seems unlikely for the front office to move any of the team’s top prospects unless the club is acquiring a starting pitcher with multiple years of team control. Some players that fit this mold would be the Mets’ Noah Syndergaard (team control through 2021) and the Tigers’ Matthew Boyd (2022). According to the Star Tribune’s La Velle E. Neal, the Mets are asking for both Royce Lewis and Kirilloff in any potential trade for Syndergaard. This seems like a king’s ransom for the right-handed hurler, but it’s tough to know what the Mets are thinking at this point. Already this week, the club acquired one of the top available pitchers, Marcus Stroman from the Blue Jays. Could the Mets asking price decrease before Wednesday? Could they settle for Kirilloff along with other players not named Royce Lewis? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.
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The first question I’d like to ask is should the Twins add a starting pitcher to the rotation? As of Thursday, there were 58 American League pitchers with 70 innings. In terms of FIP, Twins starters ranked 13th (Berrios), 17th (Odorizzi), 21st (Gibson), 24th (Perez) and 27th (Pineda). In other words, the entire rotation was in the top half of that sample. To put that into perspective, the Astros have three guys inside the top 27 (Gerrit Cole, Justin Verlander and Brad Peacock), Cleveland has two (Shane Bieber and Trevor Bauer) and the Yankees only have one (James Paxton). Sounds really good right? I agree, however, this only tells us what has happened so far. FIP is a good predictor of future success (well, at least better than ERA), but the unknown element is whether or not the other contending teams in the AL will make significant additions to their rotations over the coming week. While the Twins rotation flexes in terms of depth, the other top teams in the AL have much more formidable pieces at the top. Can that still work? Yes, I think it can. We only need to look back to last year’s Milwaukee Brewers for proof. That team had a similar solid but unspectacular rotation that relied more on its depth. Jhoulys Chacin was the ace of that staff, though Wade Miley was very good when healthy. Neither of those guys can hold a candle to Berrios. That Milwaukee team managed to beat the Cubs in a Game 163 to take the NL Central with 96 wins. The pitching matchup was Chacin vs. Jose Quintana. The Brewers then swept the Rockies, giving up just two total runs in those three games. They even pushed the Dodgers all the way to a Game 7 in the NLCS behind a rotation of Miley, Chacin and Gio Gonzalez. The big difference is Milwaukee had an excellent bullpen, though it wasn't comprised of costly big-name arms. The Twins will need to upgrade their pitching staff, nobody is going to argue with that, but I’m not so convinced they really need to add a starter. Let me know what you think. The second thing I’d love to year your opinion on is if the Twins do acquire a starting pitcher, who gets booted to the bullpen? I think this is a tricky question. Might it actually come down to matchups? Berrios is clearly the No. 1 guy on the staff, but things get very fuzzy after that. Odorizzi went to the All-Star Game, but he has a 7.99 ERA over his past seven starts. On the other end of the spectrum, Pineda has a 2.93 ERA in his last seven outings. Gibson has been steady, but never spectacular. Perez has by far the worst WHIP on the staff, but he's also the only lefty starter. Deadline Discussion The big news of the day was that Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic confirmed the Mets are considering offers on Noah Syndergaard. Joel Sherman of the New York Post wrote that "The hardest sell for the Mets baseball operations department leading up to the trade deadline is not persuading suitors to make substantial offers for Edwin Diaz and Noah Syndergaard. It will be convincing ownership to accept such a deal if it reaches a level perceived acceptable." La Velle E. Neal III of the Star Tribune confirmed the Twins not only have interest in Snydergaard, but according to his sources, the Mets are asking for both Royce Lewis and Alex Kirilloff. Rosenthal also made reference to "the growing possibility" that Trevor Bauer and Matthew Boyd would not be traded in a recent piece for The Athletic. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reported that "according to a source with knowledge of the team's plans" the Giants are poised to be buyers and "it's all but certain" Madison Bumgarner will not be traded. Cody wrote about how it's important to avoid impulse trades, such as the one Pittsburgh made to acquire Chris Archer last year. Cody also tabbed Zack Greinke as the starting pitching target of his ideal deadline. Andrew took a look at what it would take to acquire Marcus Stroman and made the case that the Twins should make a deal for Mike Minor. Cooper offered up a couple of under the radar options for the rotation: Sonny Gray and Robbie Ray. Should the Twins be aggressive on the starting pitching market? Would you trade Lewis and Kirilloff for Syndergaard? Who transitions to the bullpen if there is an addition? And if you hear any more rumors today, please feel free to pass them along.
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Have you missed the earlier parts of this series? Part 1: 2020 Part 2: Payroll Part 3: The Ammunition Part 4: The Sellers ********** At the top of the Twins - and every other team’s - wish list is a front-end starting pitcher who has team control. By adding one of these players, the Twins would take a current starter (probably Martin Perez) and move him to the bullpen for the remainder of the year. I’m also being more than generous lumping some of these guys into the “front-end” conversation. These guys are starters and would be inserted into the rotation if acquired. Zack Greinke, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks. Turns 36 in October, 4.7 bWAR, 3.15 FIP, 8.2 K/9; owed a boatload of money over this season and the next two, also has a lot of deferred money he is owed and the Twins are on his no-trade list. Will he be a Twin? No, he won’t. But it would be really fun. Marcus Stroman, RHP, New York Mets. Turned 28 in May, 3.2 bWAR, 3.52 FIP, 7.1 K/9; owed ~$2.5 million over the rest of 2019 and will command around $14m in his last arbitration year before heading to free agency. Stroman would slot in perfectly behind Berrios despite not having overpowering stuff. He’s survived the AL East and performed heroically in the World Baseball Classic. The Mets traded for him Sunday afternoon, and appear to be keeping him rather than flipping him. Will he be a Twin? The Twins certainly had the pieces to deal with Toronto, but couldn't/didn't beat the Mets package. The Mets now have the most intriguing rental (Zach Wheeler), player with one year of control (Stroman) and player with two years of control (Syndergaard). Noah Syndergaard, RHP, New York Mets. Turns 27 in August, 1.2 bWAR, 3.64 FIP, 9.0 K/9; owed ~$2 million over the rest of the 2019 season and has two more years of arbitration left before heading to free agency. Syndergaard has not been as good this year as in the past, but the price is still incredibly high. The Padres and Braves sound like the most interested trade partners, with the Astros and Yankees showing interest as well. After adding Stroman, maybe the Mets are going for it. Will he be a Twin? We can dream, right? At this point, that’s what it is, despite having the ammunition to get it done. Matthew Boyd, LHP, Detroit Tigers. Turns 29 in February, 3.0 bWAR, 3.57 FIP, 12.0 K/9; owed ~$850,000 over the rest of the 2019 season and has three years of arbitration remaining. Not the youngest on this list, but is the one with the most team control, which makes him the most valuable. Will he be a Twin? Because he’s in the division, there is a very slim chance the Twins acquire Boyd. Trevor Bauer, RHP, Cleveland Indians. Turns 29 in January, 2.4 bWAR, 4.19 FIP, 10.6 K/9; owed ~$4.3 million over the rest of 2019 and will command around $18m in his last arbitration year before heading to free agency. Do the Indians move Bauer? And would they move him to the team they competing directly with for a playoff spot? Will he be a Twin? Extremely unlikely, despite his Sunday meltdown. Robbie Ray, LHP, Arizona Diamondbacks. Turns 28 in October, 1.1 bWAR, 4.27 FIP, 11.9 K/9; owed ~$2 million over the rest of 2019 and will command around $11m in his last arbitration year before heading to free agency. Ray is probably a step below many of the other available. Will he be a Twin? They’ve kicked the tires on Ray and the teams were able to match up on a deal last year. Will a team not in on the big names try to strike early? It’s possible. I don’t consider Ray to be one of their top choices, so I don’t see this being a match unless it happens very late in the process. Lance Lynn, RHP, Texas Rangers. Turned 32 in May; 5.0 bWAR, 2.94 FIP, 10.2 K/9; owed ~$3.1 million over the rest of the 2019 season and is under contract for two more years at $20.7m. Lynn has been an above-average pitcher for his entire career, except for his time with the Twins, when he couldn’t throw strikes. Will he be a Twin? It would be a nightmarish reunion for fans, especially if he doesn’t perform well. But he’s been really good this year, the cost wouldn’t be excessive and he would help with the playoff push. If he keeps playing like he has so far this year, all fans would get over his 2018 performance. Mike Leake, RHP, Seattle Mariners. Turns 32 in November, 2.0 bWAR, 4.71 FIP, 6.7 K/9; owed ~3.6 million over the rest of the 2019 season and acquiring team would be on the hook for $11m of his $15m contract in 2020 as well as a $5m buyout on a $18m mutual option in 2021. The Twins could afford to take on the $20 still owed to Leake and, in doing so, could avoid moving their better prospects. He’d also help fill a need in next year’s rotation… but is he an upgrade on anyone in the current rotation? That’s a big question. Will he be a Twin? If the Twins are convinced they’d be better with Leake in the rotation and Perez in the bullpen than with Perez in the rotation and a new acquisition in the bullpen, then this is a move I could certainly see the team making. Mike Minor, LHP, Texas Rangers. Turns 32 in December, 5.8 bWAR, 4.20 FIP, 9.1 K/9; owed ~$3.3 million over the rest of 2019 and under contract for $9,833,333 next season. Minor will be a free agent following the 2020 season. Despite how good he’s been this year - he’s been great - his track record isn’t. Will he be a Twin? There is definitely familiarity between Thad Levine and Rangers GM Jon Daniels. And though he’s been arguably the best pitcher who is available, the cost shouldn’t be as high as others. Next on the Twins list would be a controllable, dependable back-of-the-bullpen type. Shane Greene, RHP, Detroit Tigers. Turns 31 in November; 1.5 bWAR, 3.74 FIP, 10.0 K/9; owed ~$1.3 million over the rest of the 2019 season and will command around $8m in his last arbitration year before heading to free agency. Greene is having his best season by far and the Tigers are looking to cash in. Will he be a Twin? Fortunately, the Twins and Tigers don’t appear likely to connect on a trade, saving the Twins from trading for someone who has a very short track record despite being a relief pitcher for the last three seasons. Jake McGee, LHP, Colorado Rockies. Turns 33 in August; 0.8 bWAR, 4.92 FIP, 7.3 K/9; owed ~$2.8 million over the rest of the 2019 season with $11.5m more guaranteed over the next two years, including a likely-to-vest option for 2021, increasing the guarantee to $18.5m. McGee is not the same performer he was with Tampa Bay, but has dominated left-handed hitters this year (which he did not do last year). Will he be a Twin? There are better, less expensive options available currently. But if it gets close to the deadline and the Twins are still in the market for another left-handed option, they could do worse. Edwin Diaz, RHP, New York Mets. Turned 25 in March; 0.0 bWAR, 3.50 FIP, 14.0 K/9; owed ~$200,000 over the rest of the 2019 season and has three years of arbitration left before free agency. Diaz was the best reliever in baseball in 2018 and the Mets paid for it. He hasn’t been good this year, yet the Mets are still asking for a ton, as they should. Will he be a Twin? The cost will be super high. The Twins appear most interested in Diaz of all the potential Mets trade chips, but that still doesn’t make this move more likely. Kirby Yates, RHP, San Diego Padres. Turned 32 in March; 2.4 bWAR, 1.07 FIP, 14.7 K/9; owed ~$1 million over the rest of the 2019 season and will command around $7m in his last arbitration year before heading to free agency. The Padres turned a waiver-wire claim in Brad Hand into a Top 100 prospect in Francisco Mejia. They’re likely to try to do the same thing with Yates. Yates has been great, don’t get me wrong. But he’s a great example of how elite relievers don’t always take the path that begins with being a top prospect. Will he be a Twin? His price will be high, but if the Twins insist on moving big-time prospects for a controllable reliever, Yates is one of the better options. Felipe Vasquez, LHP, Pittsburgh Pirates. Turned 28 in July; 2.0 bWAR, 1.96 FIP, 14.1 K/9; owed ~$1.5 million over the rest of the 2019 season, with two more guaranteed years ($13.5m) before two team options ($10m each). Vasquez would certainly change the complexion of the bullpen, wouldn’t he? Will he be a Twin? Like Diaz, the cost will be extreme, which makes the likelihood of a trade small. Ian Kennedy, RHP, Kansas City Royals. Turns 35 in December; 0.9 bWAR, 2.16 FIP, 11.1 K/9; owed ~$5.5 million over the rest of the 2019 season and $16.5m in 2020. Kennedy’s career has been rejuvenated by a move to the bullpen. He’s walking less and striking out more hitters than ever before. Will he be a Twin? This is a move the team should make. With financial flexibility to take on salary, which would offset the need to part with top prospects, the Twins and Royals can match up nicely. That is, if the Royals are ok sending their closer to an in-division team. Ken Giles, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays. Turns 29 in September; 1.8 bWAR, 1.60 FIP; 14.9 K/9; owed ~$2.1 million over the rest of the 2019 season and will command around $10m in his last arbitration year before heading to free agency. Giles should be high on the priority list for the Twins and others. You can definitely find reasons to not like Giles - he’s basically a two-years-younger-version of Cody Allen. But there’s a lot to like too. Will he be a Twin? The Twins will go as far down this path as they can. Will it end with Giles in Minnesota? We’ll find out soon. We're getting down to it... who are the Twins going to add?
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The first thing we all need to admit, the term Prospect means something different to everyone. People aren’t going to agree on every prospect or rank them exactly the same. My Top prospect ranking looks a little different than Cody’s rankings or Tom’s rankings and with others, we have our Twins Daily Top 40 rankings. It looks different than Baseball America which looks a little different than Baseball Prospectus which looks a little different than FanGraphs which looks a little different than MLB Pipeline Which looks different than ESPNs rankings. And that’s OK. But as it relates to the Trade Deadline, the only prospect rankings and organizational depth charts that matter are the Minnesota Twins and any team that is scouting their players. That is the reason that each individual can have a slightly different, or fully different, opinion on a trade and the players dealt away. To that degree, we love our prospects, right? Every fan base loves its own prospects. No matter the deal, any trade that sends a player away hurts to some degree because, even if we don’t know that player personally, he’s part of the “We” that includes players, front office and fans too. At the same time, we all understand that in order to get something, something has to be given up, and in baseball, especially at the trade deadline, that comes in the form of prospects. I’ve been giving it some thought… let me know in the Comments if this makes sense. By definition, signing a free agent means that a team was willing to pay a little bit more than the other 29 teams were willing to pay. So it is overpaying, but hopefully just by a little bit. However, each team should also have a maximum amount (in years and dollars) for each player. It is sort of the same at the trade deadline. You know in every trade, the seller accepts the trade from the team that offered them the most. The acquiring team overpaid by just enough to “win” the trade. So, the goal of a Buyer when they really want to acquire a player should be to overpay, but just by a little bit. Each team should also have a maximum amount (in terms of prospects) for each player. So as it relates to the trade deadline, what does that mean? For each of the following players, how much would you be willing to trade? How much is too much? Noah Syndergaard: Marcus Stroman: Ken Giles: Mike Minor: Lance Lynn; Sergio Romo: Daniel Hudson: And the list goes on and on. How much do we love “our” prospects? But how much do we want to increase the Twins likelihood of winning a World Series incrementally? That is the question for you in the comments below, but it is also the question for the Twins front office in the next four to five days. SCOUTING UPDATES There are often scouts from other organizations at minor league games, just doing their job and getting information on players from the Twins organization. However, I have heard that there have been a lot of scouts in the last couple of weeks, particularly in Ft. Myers and Pensacola. The teams that have sent scouts to the Twins include (but certainly not limited to) the Blue Jays, Mets, Tigers, Royals, Giants, Rangers and Diamondbacks. That only makes sense. Teams are looking for pitching, and almost every night, there are real quality pitching prospects going for those affiliates. Teams certainly want to get a look at the likes of Edwar Colina, Jhoan Duran, Blayne Enlow, and even a guy like Cole Sands who has been really strong in his professional debut. Scouts have seen Jordan Balazovic, though his next start will be for Team Canada against Cuba on Tuesday at the Pan Am games in Peru. And they would certainly like to see Brusdar Graterol who hasn’t pitched in a game since May 19th, though there were reports this week that he could start a rehab assignment soon in the GCL. As for position players, the players that teams are scouting are in the lineup most every day, so it’s easier to know that they can be seen. There are scouts assigned to cover certain teams, and generally speaking they continue to be on-hand and scout as usual. However, over these last week or two they may be asked to focus on a target or two. Also over this time frame, teams may pull one of their other scouts will be pull off of their regular duty to get extra eyes on an organization that could be a trade partner. Twins Rumors On Thursday afternoon, the big talker became Noah Syndergaard. On Friday afternoon, the spotlight shifted again, this time north of the border to Marcus Stroman and Ken Giles. https://twitter.com/jonmorosi/status/1154889022000340992 Jon Morosi from MLB Network got Twins fans talking for going very specific. A top-of-rotation starter and a veteran reliever are available, but Morosi says the Twins aren’t sure that they would give up both Trevor Larnach and Brusdar Graterol for him. Would the price come down if the teams waiting until Tuesday or Wednesday, or will another team swoop them up? Would it cost more or less to acquire the two together or in separate deals? In other words, what would the cost be for the Twins to acquire Stroman and then to acquire Giles (or another top reliever) in individual deals? And how does the Twins interest in Daniel Hudson factor into these discussions? Hey Sergio! The Twins will be in Miami during the trade deadline next week. Could they get Sergio Romo to switch dugouts mid-series? https://twitter.com/CraigMish/status/1154826791908978690 The 36-year-old is in his 12th season in the big leagues. He won three World Series titles with the Giants. He has 126 saves. He has 10.0 K/9 rate and 2.1 BB/9. This year with the Marlins, he has a 7.8 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9 to go with a 3.58 ERA. He is also 17 for 18 in save opportunities. Romo is now a soft-tosser, reliant on his moxie, and a good mix of changeup and slider. The cost to acquire him would be quite low. Syndergaard Updates Joel Sherman from the New York Post.reported again on Friday night that the Mets are definitely looking to trade Noah Syndergaard. He mentions the Astros, Braves and Padres are the teams they feel have the best opportunity to acquire him. LaVelle Neal from the Star Tribune noted on Thursday that it might take Royce Lewis and Alex Kirilloff to acquire Syndergaard. That should not be the case for the hard-throwing right-hander who has an ERA over 4 this year and missed most of the 2017 season with injury. But he is an ace caliber right-hander who has two more years of team control after this year. Dan Hayes from The Athletic pointed out that the Twins would be willing to move Lewis or Kirilloff in the right deal, meaning, for an Ace starting pitcher. In the same Sherman article, he pointed out that the likelihood that closer Edwin Diaz being traded “has greatly increased as well.” In fact, Jim Bowden says there may be more interest in the hard-throwing right-hander. https://twitter.com/JimBowdenGM/status/1155157106850455557 And hey, Ken Rosenthal has found a scenario where the Mets trade Syndergaard to the Padres and then the Mets would acquire Marcus Stroman. Ah, trade deadline rumors. https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/1155186573350199297 Twins Inquire on Robbie Ray Availability https://twitter.com/jonmorosi/status/1155159228069187585 Yeah, that’s really it. The Twins have called the Diamondbacks to ask about Robbie Ray… As they have called on probably every potentially available pitcher at the trade deadline. Cross Him Off the List… One name mentioned in Twins rumors over the last month has been traded. On Saturday afternoon, Royals lefty reliever Jake Diekman became A’s lefty reliever Jake Diekman, per Jeff Passon: https://twitter.com/JeffPassan/status/1155188823657189376 The A’s sent two minor leaguers to Kansas City to complete the deal,20-year-old right-hander Ismael Aquino (second season in the Arizona League) and outfielder Dairon Blanco, a 26-year-old Cuban outfielder in AA. (I was asked what an equivalent trade from the Twins may have looked like. I think the best I could do to compare would be GCL RHP Donny Breek and AA/AAA OF Jimmy Kerrigan.
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