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“I know better. I know it’s a different front office and a different mindset. But they’re totally going to sign Kevin Correia. I can feel it.” Jacob Wilson watched the Twins phenomenal 2019 regular season with glee. Despite the quick playoff exit, he initially looked forward to watching Derek Falvey and Thad Levine rebuild the team’s rotation for 2020.Now, though, he’s not so sure. “What if they sign Kevin Correia,” asked the Circle Pines educator. “What if the only improvement is Kevin Correia?” Correia, who has not pitched in the majors since 2015, was signed by the Twins to a 2-year, $10 million deal in 2013 to bolster one of the league’s worst pitching staffs. It didn't work. “They also traded all their center fielders for Vance Worley and Alex Meyer,” said Wilson. “I don’t want to talk about it.” Wilson says that he understands Correia is no longer a major league pitcher, nor appears to harbor any intentions of a comeback at the age of 39. “I know better. I know it’s a different front office and a different mindset. But they’re totally going to sign Kevin Correia. I can feel it.” Local cat owner Aaron Gleeman writes at The Athletic that the Twins can safely budget $50-70 million at minimum on next year’s staff, depending on whether Jake Odorizzi accepts the team’s qualifying offer. Wilson acknowledges that while the numbers make sense, and that the front office’s work with the lineup encourages him, he’s unable to shake a nagging feeling of despair. “If I think about it for even five seconds, logic tells me (signing Correia) will never happen. But I’ve been a Twins fan for years. I remember when they signed and re-signed Mike Pelfrey. I remember the 2013 rotation. I remember Terry Felton. You don’t just walk away from that without some scars. Hell, you’re lucky if they’re scars. Some of those wounds…” Wilson’s voice trailed off. Holding back tears, he paused to gather himself and continued. “My mom broke her kneecap when she was a kid, and whenever the weather changes, she says she can feel it ache. When the Twins have money to spend and talk about improving their pitching? All I feel is Kevin Correia.” (Image license here) Click here to view the article

April has come and gone. With the calendar flipping to May, there have been plenty of story-lines to follow across the baseball world. Bryce Harper seems to have found his swing again. Aaron Judge is making himself known as a Bronx Bomber. Even Eric Thames is having a resurgence in Milwaukee. Teams in the AL Central have been making headlines of their own. The four top teams are separated by two games. Meanwhile, the Royals are the lone team with an under .500 record. What's been going well for each AL Central squad? What needs to improve in the coming months? Let's dive in.Cleveland Indians (April Record 14-10) What's Gone Right Following their World Series run, the Indians might have come out of the gate a little slower than they would like. Francisco Lindor is continuing his strong performance from last year's postseason. He leads all shortstops in home runs, slugging percentage and WAR. Jose Ramirez is also proving he can hold his own. Through April, he hitting .330/.388/.593 with six home runs, the second highest total on the team. Cleveland's pitching staff continues to be one of it's strengths. Indians pitchers have compiled the highest WAR total in all of baseball. Both their starters and relievers rank in the top six in WAR. Their 9.97 K/9 ranks as the best in baseball while their 2.79 BB/9 is the second lowest mark. Cleveland's strong pitching helped the club to sweep three-game series from the Twins and Rangers during the season's first month. Room For Improvement Edwin Encarnacion was the team's big free agent acquisition and he has't exactly gotten off to a hot start. Through April's action, he was hitting .200/343/.353 with one home run. Those averages are all below his career production. Jason Kipnis has been limited to nine games and his production has suffered when he's been on the field. Josh Tomlin and Trevor Bauer have both struggled at the back of the Indians rotation. Tomlin has posted an 8.87 ERA, the club's worst mark, while averaging less than five innings per start. Bauer's ERA is slightly better at 6.26 and he's been close to six innings per appearance. Cleveland was only swept by one team in April, the Arizona Diamondbacks, and both Tomlin and Bauer made starts in that series. Chicago White Sox (April Record 13-10) What's Gone Right The White Sox were supposed to be in the midst of a rebuild but they find themselves a half game out of first place after the season's first month. Avisail Garcia is batting .368/.409/.621 and he leads the team with 10 extra-base hits. Matt Davidson joins Garcia in the .600 slugging percentage club and he's also been getting on base over 33% of the time. Miguel Gonzalez and Derek Holland have been quiet surprises in the White Sox rotation. Gonzalez leads the team with three wins and he's posted a 3.27 ERA with 21 strikeouts. Holland's ERA is better at 2.17 and he's second on the team in strikeouts. Even former Twins Anthony Swarzak has been good out of the bullpen as he has yet to allow a run in over 12 innings. Improvement Areas Veterans on the team like Todd Frazier and Melky Cabrera haven't started strong. Frazier is hitting under .185 while getting on base less than 29% of the time. Cabrera's .260 average is 25 points lower than his career mark. His .668 SLG would also be his lowest total since the 2014 campaign. Jose Quintana, the team's best starter a year ago, has struggled out of the gate. His ERA is north of 5.00 for April and his WHIP is over 1.46. James Shields was brought in as a veteran starter and he has been limited to three starts while currently being on the 10-day DL. Former Twin Mike Pelfrey has made a pair of starts so you know you're in desperation mode when you turn to Big Pelf. Detroit Tigers (April Record 12-12) What's Gone Right The Tigers took advantage of six games with the Twins as 25% of their victories have come against Minnesota. Justin Upton has provided the most value to the Tigers as he has gotten on base over 40% of the time while compiling a .968 OPS. Both of those totals, if sustained, would be career-best marks. Ian Kinsler and Alex Avial have also had good starts to the year. Detroit's pitching has been a mixture of good and bad. Michael Fulmer has put together the most consistent starts as he has a staff leading 3.19 ERA with 26 strikeouts over 31 innings. Justin Wilson and Shane Green have also limited damage out of the bullpen. Improvement Areas Former Triple Crown winner Miguel Cabrera has been limited to five extra-base hits and a .268 average. He currently is on the 10-day DL. Veteran slugger Victor Martinez has been limited in his time at DH. He has combined to hit .218/.281/.276 with only three extra-base hits in over 96 plate appearances. Justin Verlander and Jordan Zimmermann are supposed to be the anchors of this starting staff. Verlander, the 2016 runner-up for Cy Young, has a 4.60 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP. Zimmermann has a 1.62 WHIP and and ERA of over 6.00. Francisco Rodriguez has also struggled as the closer as he has allowed 14 hits (3 home runs) and six earned runs in less than 10 innings. Kansas City Royals (7-16) What's Gone Right Not much has gone right for the 2016 World Series champions. Lorenzo Cain leads the team in WAR and over half of his value comes on the defensive side of the ball. Salvador Perez and Mike Moustakas have combined for 13 home runs with each having OPS over .835. Other than that, there hasn't been much to write home about. The Royals top three starters (Danny Duffy, Ian Kennedy, and Jason Vargas) all have ERA totals under 3.00. Kennedy and Vargas have a WHIP under 1.00. Because of the strong start by the Royals starters, the club ranks first in the AL for WAR from their starting staff. Kansas City's lone sweep in the first month came in a three-game homestand versus the Angels. Improvement Areas Positive signs on the offensive side of the ball have been few and far between. The Royals rank at the bottom of the AL in many offensive categories. Their .210 batting average is 10 points lower than any team in the league. Slugging percentage doesn't rank them any better as they are in last by 14 points. While the front end of the rotation has been strong, the bullpen has been a weakness for Kansas City. The team's relief core has the third worst ERA in the AL while posting a negative WAR total. Relief pitchers Matt Strahm and Travis Wood both have ERA marks north of 11.50. Nate Karns and Jason Hammel have also struggled in the back end of the rotation. A lot of pitching help will be needed to turn things around in KC. What will May entail for the AL Central? Will anyone be able to separate themselves from the pack? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. Click here to view the article

How many times and in how many ways have you heard the following comment? “He sits 91 to 93 with his fastball. That’s not hard enough.” “The Twins need more hard-throwing starters.” “Other teams have starters that average 95 mph or more with their fastballs.” So, how do you feel about that? What value does extra velocity have for a pitcher, and do pitchers need to throw 95 to be successful? Do they need to average 94 of 95 with their fastball to be an “Ace?”In my opinion, that is completely a myth and there are so many examples of that. Here are a few things we do know about velocity. 1) Velocity allows a greater margin for error for any pitcher. The faster the ball comes in toward the plate, the quicker the batter’s brain needs to process whether to swing at it and then try to hit it. There’s no question about that. 2) Control and – more important – command are much more important than velocity alone in a pitcher’s success. Alex Meyer can hit 98 with his fastball with frequency. When he is on, he can dominate. When he lacks control, gets behind and then lacks command in the strike zone, he – like every other pitcher – is going to struggle. 3) MLB hitters can hit straight fastballs, even if they come in near triple digits. MLB hitters are good and have great hand-eye coordination. Making the fastball move – in, out or down – is very important to sustained success. Having a good four-seam fastball is great, but a two-seam fastball with movement is usually a better pitcher’s pitch, even though it comes in a couple of miles per hour slower. 4) Having quality second and third and maybe even fourth pitches is also important for a starter. Having control of a change-up that comes in eight to twelve mph slower than the fastball with the same delivery can be the most difficult pitch to hit because it messes with your timing. It can also make the fastball look a couple of mph faster. I always thought that the change-up and the cutter were the two most difficult pitches to hit. That said, a curve ball like Tyler Duffey showed in his big league debut is also difficult because it changes the batter’s eye level. This is not a knock on velocity. In fact, if a pitcher has 1-4 above and throws 98, he's going to be great. Velocity is not a bad thing. I’m not telling you anything you don’t already know. For a starter, being able to mix and match three or four pitches with good control is immensely important, and I would argue it is far more important than velocity. Now, maybe the Twins Geek will want to run a Correlation Analysis to show what makes a starting pitcher successful. My hypothesis for such a study would be that velocity wouldn’t be in the Top 5 factors for pitcher success. But again, I thought it would be interesting to see how Twins pitchers compared in terms of fastball velocity to other starters around baseball. In 2015, 141 pitchers threw at least 100 innings. Going back to my days as a math minor, I believe that “median” is the number in the middle of a group, a number in which half of the data comes in higher and half are lower. The “Median” Average Fastball Velocity for the 141 starters is 91.8 mph. Two pitchers (Yankees Nathan Eovaldi, and Mets Noah Syndergaard) averaged 96.0+ on their fastballs. Just 11 of the 141 pitchers averaged 95.0 with their fastball. 25 averaged 94.0+ with the fastball. In other words, when you hear someone say that a pitcher sits between 91 and 93 mph, that isn’t a knock. It just is what it is. That’s what 60% of pitchers throw, with more big leaguers below that range rather than higher. TWINS VELOCITIES The Twins had six pitchers throw at least 100 innings, and here is how they ranked by Average Fastball Velocity. Trevor May – 93.2 (was tied with Justin Verlander for 36th in MLB, though clearly that number was improved by his time in the bullpen)Mike Pelfrey – 93.0 (was tied for 38th on the list – Tied with Jordan Zimmerman and Sonny Gray)Ervin Santana – 92.5 (was tied for 49th on the list)Kyle Gibson – 92.0 (was tied for 61st on the list. Tied with the likes of Masahiro Tanaka, Madison Bumgarner and Jon Lester.)Phil Hughes – 90.7 (was tied for 98th on the list – he as at 92.1 in 2014)Tommy Milone – 87.6 (was tied for 131st on the list)So, what does that mean? Well, four of the six Twins pitchers with 100 or more innings in 2015 pitched with above-average velocity. The Twins starting rotation was improved in 2015 (starter ERA improved by nearly a run), but they were still 10th in the American League. However, struggles of the staff should not be attributed to lack of velocity. THE CASE OF TOMMY MILONE Tommy Milone is an interesting case. Many believe he is not a guy to build around because of his lack of velocity. However, a quick look at the pitchers in MLB whose average velocity is even lower than Milone’s proves interesting. Dodgers RHP Mike Bolsinger (87.2), Rockies RHP Kyle Kendrick (86.7), Nationals RHP Doug Fister (86.4), Royals RHP Chris Young (86.4), Cubs RHP Dan Haren (86.0), Diamondbacks RHP Josh Collmenter (85.9), Angels RHP Jered Weaver (84.9), Blue Jays LHP Mark Buehrle (83.9), Blue Jays RHP RA Dickey (81.4).There are some long-time, very successful starting pitchers in that group. They are rare, and you’ll note just how pinpoint their control has been over the years. It has to be. I’m not saying that Tommy Milone will turn into the next Mark Buehrle, but I also refuse to say that he can’t be. His fastball may be just 87.6 mph, but he has a slow curve ball and a very good change-up. That three-pitch mix can be success (with command) at any level. PLAYOFF ROTATIONS You will also often hear that the Twins need some flame-throwers in order to make a run in the playoffs. Again, that wouldn’t hurt, but velocity isn’t necessarily the key to success for starters to get a team to the playoffs. Just for fun (and because I’m curious), I looked at the 10 playoff teams and considered their playoff rotations as well as other starters who helped a team to the playoffs (for instance, the injured Carlos Martinez of the Cardinals, or CC Sabathia of the Yankees). What you will find is a mixed bag of pitchers in the rotations. Pittsburgh Pirates: Gerrit Cole (95.5), Francisco Liriano (92.1), Charlie Morton (92.1), Jeff Locke (91.8), AJ Burnett (91.1) New York Yankees: Nathan Eovaldi (96.6), Ivan Nova (93.0), Adam Warren (92.8), Michael Pineda (92.5), Masahiro Tanaka (92.0), CC Sabathia (90.3) Chicago Cubs: Jake Arrieta (94.4), Jason Hammel (92.2), Jon Lester (92.0), Kyle Hendricks (89.9), Dan Haren (86.0) St. Louis Cardinals: Carlos Martinez (95.2), Michael Wacha (93.9), Lance Lynn (91.7), John Lackey (91.6), Jaime Garcia (90.0) New York Mets: Noah Syndergaard (96.5), Matt Harvey (95.2), Jacob De Grom (94.9), Stephen Matz (94.3), Bartolo Colon (90.3), Jon Niese (89.2) Los Angeles Dodgers: Clayton Kershaw (93.6), Zach Greinke (91.8), Brett Anderson (91.0), Alex Wood (89.3). Houston Astros: Lance McCullers (94.2), Scott Kazmir (91.5), Collin McHugh (90.3), Scott Feldman (90.0), Dallas Kuechel (89.6), Mike Fiers (89.4) Kansas City Royals: Yordano Ventura (95.6), Edinson Volquez (93.8), Danny Duffy (93.6), Johnny Cueto (92.2), Jeremy Guthrie (92.0), Chris Young (86.4) Toronto Blue Jays: David Price (94.0), Marcus Stroman (92.9), Drew Hutchinson (92.4), Marco Estrada (89.1), Mark Buehrle (83.9), RA Dickey (81.4) Texas Rangers: Derek Holland (92.9), Cole Hamels (92.1), Martin Perez (91.8), Yovani Gallardo (90.5), Nick Martinez (89.7), Colby Lewis (88.2) The Mets clearly are all about youth and velocity and that’s a good strategy when the pitchers are as talented as that young quartet. Jake Arrieta and David Price are aces who throw hard. But look at the Astros pitching after McCullers. Dallas Kuechel, the likely AL Cy Young Award winner, doesn’t average 90 mph on his fastball. Great pitching comes in all shapes and sizes. Some develop by 21 or 22, and others don’t reach their potential until they’re 25 or 26. Most are somewhere in between. There have been great pitchers who are 6-0 tall and others at 6-11, and everywhere in-between. Likewise, there have been aces who throw 97, and there have been aces that top out at 89 or 90. And, everywhere in between. Velocity can be a good thing for a starting pitcher for several reasons. However, it is a myth if someone tells you that one must have great velocity to become an ace. Click here to view the article

Thirty minutes following the Minnesota Twins 7-1 win in Cleveland, the two teams played the second game of the doubleheader. It was a tale of two very different baseball games. The team fell 10-2 to Cleveland after another frustrating, and very short, start for Mike Pelfrey. Scoreboard watching, and hope that the Angels and Astros lose, becomes much more important.Things started out a bit shaky for Pelfrey in the first inning. He was able to wiggle his way out of a bases-loaded, two out situation. However, in the second inning, he was not. 2nd Inning Abraham Almonte doubled to center. (6.7%) Adam Moore struck out (-4.5%) Michael Martinez singled to center, scoring Almonte. Martinez advanced to second on a wild throw by Aaron Hicks. (11.3%) Jason Kipnis lined out to shortstop. (-3.0%) Jose Ramirez doubled to left field, Martinez scored. (10.1%) Francisco Lindor singled to first base. (1.0%) Lindor advanced to second on a wild pitch. Jose Ramirez scored. (6.9%) Carlos Santana singled to center. Lindor scored. (5.4%) Mike Pelfrey’s night was complete. JR Graham came on. Santana was thrown thrown out trying to steal second base by Chris Herrmann. But the damage was done. The Twins had their big inning in Game 1. Going into the second inning, Cleveland had a 54.8% win expectancy. Following Santana’s run-scoring single, that number was up to 88.7% After that, there weren’t really any hits that contributed to Cleveland’s win expectancy. They just continued to add runs. Graham gave up one run in the third inning. Brian Duensing gave up a run in his 1.1 innings. Phil Hughes gave up a hit, but no runs, in his inning. Ryan O’Rourke threw a perfect sixth inning. Ricky Nolasco returned to the mound for the first time since May 31. He got a ground out and then struck out the next two batters with an impressive curve ball. He could very easily have thrown in the towel on his season, but he worked his way back and you have to feel good for him. We won’t mention the three runs in gave up in his second inning of work that gave Cleveland a 10-1 lead. However, the Twins were unable to figure out Cody Anderson for the second straight time. In this one, they had just two hits over seven shutout innings. Anderson did walk four, but the Twins really didn’t mount much of a scoring threat against him. Zach McAllister came on for the eighth inning. He gave up a solo homer to Miguel Sano. The 430 foot blast from the rookie was his 18th of the year. In the ninth inning, Austin Adams gave up a solo homer to Eddie Rosario to give the 10-2 final score. The Performance of Pelfrey As noted above, it was another bad start for Pelfrey. Though the safe call on the Francisco Lindor infield single cost him an out and two runs in the second, he was just being hit so hard, and he was hurting himself by being all over the place with his control. However, that can change with one call and getting that third out. Things could have been different. He will (most likely) end his 2015 season (and maybe his Twins career) by going 6-11 with a 4.26 ERA. Coming into the game on Wednesday night, here is where the Twins starters ranked in FIP (fielding independent pitching), a stat which many suggest shows how well a pitcher has been able to control the things that he can control Mike Pelfrey – 3.99 (this got worse on Wednesday) Kyle Gibson – 4.05 (this improved on Wednesday) Ervin Santana – 4.22 Tommy Milone – 4.40 Phil Hughes – 4.72 Tyler Duffey – 3.18 (but his 51 innings is about one half to one fourth of the innings of each of the top five starters above) That’s just one number, one statistic, of course. Here’s how his ERA ranked coming into the games on Wednesday: Kyle Gibson – 3.96 Tommy Milone – 4.04 Mike Pelfrey – 4.09 Ervin Santana – 4.10 Phil Hughes – 4.43 Pelfrey’s ERA jumped to 4.26, but he’s still in line with the other Twins starters. He’s been a decent fifth starter and was very important to the team’s success in the first half. However, he was remarkably inconsistent. In 16 of his 30 starts, he went at least five innings and gave up less than two earned runs. However, in ten of his 30 starts, he wasn’t able to complete five innings. Five of his final ten starts were less than five innings. So this performance was certainly predictable. WILD CARD UPDATE The Twins went 1-1. The Angels lost to the A’s. The Astros beat the Mariners. The Astros have now jumped back in to the second Wild Card position, 1/2 game ahead of the Angels. The Twins are 1 1/2 games behind Houston with four games to play. It’s not over yet! Click here to view the article

Prodded by a caller on his weekly radio show, Minnesota Twins manager Paul Molitor admitted the club was exploring their options with regards to the rotation spot of right-hander Mike Pelfrey. A number of factors make the situation difficult, including the shutdown of Jose Berrios, the presence of Tyler Duffey, and the current situations surrounding Phil Hughes and Trevor May.To be clear, the presence of Duffey is simply just that he’s already promoted, and thus not a candidate to take Pelfrey’s rotation spot. May is not stretched out, as he’s worked as a reliever almost exclusively for over two months. There isn’t time, or really a place — short of using him during Chattanooga’s playoff run — to get him lengthened back out. Hughes isn’t healthy enough to return to the rotation yet either, otherwise he might be the natural choice to take Pelfrey’s rotation spot. A possible wild card in the situation is left-hander Logan Darnell, whom the club recalled after his last start with Rochester on Thursday. And if Darnell’s usage is any indication — he threw just 4.2 innings and 45 pitches in that start — he might in fact be the man for the job. A Rochester-based source indicated he was removed for reasons other than ineffect, and his spot to start lines up quite nicely with Pelfrey — who pitched (poorly) on Friday. Darnell has also been a man on fire of late. While he hasn’t pitched at all in the big leagues this year, Darnell took strongly to a late-season move to the rotation. Darnell started in his final five appearances of the season for Rochester and posted a 0.83 ERA and 28-7 K/BB ratio. Opposing batters hit just .185/.228/.210 off Darnell in that stretch, and he’s been especially stingy against left-handed hitters all season, allowing just one extra-base hit (a double) as they’ve collectively batted just .265/.327/.275. Opposing batters haven’t been as kind to Pelfrey, who has allowed a triple-slash line of .298/.354/.404. For context, just 27 of 154 qualified batters across baseball (17.5 percent) have a batting average that high across MLB in this depressed offensive era. Despite starting off well enough even with shaky peripherals, the wheels have come off for Pelfrey since his 2.28 ERA at the 11-start mark of the season. To that point, opposing batters had hit .254/.321/.331 against Pelfrey, which made up for the fact that he had just a 34-19 K/BB ratio through those 67 innings. It’s truly odd that a pitcher with good velocity and a solid splitter still gets barreled up to that extent, but it’s just the truth. Anyway, since mid-June it’s been rough for Pelfrey. Sure, there have been good starts here and there, but the aggregate numbers tell a pretty definitive story: 5.76 ERA, .331/.378/.459 slash against and just 42 strikeouts in 79.2 innings. Pelfrey’s groundball-heavy tendencies (No. 7 in AL at 51.9 percent) keep him from being an unmitigated disaster (just six home runs allowed), but there’s still way too much contact and damage being done. An enterprising team is going to put him in their bullpen, where he’ll turn into a very nice back-end option with a velocity uptick, grounders and what’ll likely be a strong jump in strikeouts. It just doesn’t appear that’ll be the Twins. UPCOMING The Twins are fortunate enough to miss ace Johnny Cueto in the series with the Royals, but won’t be as lucky with the White Sox series that follows. As it currently stands, the Twins are slated to face Chris Sale and Jose Quintana — two of the finest lefties in the junior circuit. And while the Twins have strangely owned Sale all season long — 6.30 ERA versus the Twins, 2.68 against everyone else — this is a guy who’d probably be the AL Cy Young if it weren’t for the fact that his team around him has been a huge disappointment. There is a silver lining here in the series, though: John Danks is slated to start one of the games as well. The Twins have absolutely obliterated Danks through the years (5.76 ERA), and that is even more magnified this season (1.188 OPS, 9.39 ERA). ALLEN vs ANDERSON It’s only the perception of the writer, but it appears that Twins fans have been far more supportive of current pitching coach Neil Allen than his deposed predecessor, Rick Anderson. Whether it’s on Facebook, Twitter or even in sports bars, it seems as though fans have really bought into Allen, despite the fact that stats show a pretty interesting story. Here are the numbers for the 2014 rotation: 5.06 ERA/4.03 FIP 6.4 K/9 2.4 BB/9 1.0 HR/9 And now, 2015: 4.23 ERA/4.19 FIP 6.2 K/9 2.4 BB/9 1.1 HR/9 Even if you don’t want to buy FIP’s argument that this rotation is actually worse, it’s not as though you could pick out one or the other out of a crowd of numbers. And I’m not saying you have to believe this year is as bad as last year, but it’s pretty close. It’s just a simple exercise to see if perception mirrors reality. In this case, not really. This article was originally posted at Cold Omaha here; please click through to support the content. Click here to view the article

Ten days ago, the Twins were holding strong to the second AL Wild Card spot. Twins fans watched the July 31 trade deadline pass and all they got was a t-shirt. Wait. No, they got reliever Kevin Jepsen, but that certainly wasn’t going to be a difference-maker. Optimists pointed out that the Twins have typically fared pretty well in August trades. They could make a deal at that time. In the last week, the Twins were swept in Toronto and barely eked out one win in Cleveland. It wasn't pretty... at all.Now to the present, and the Twins are well out of contention for an AL Wild Card. They are 11.5 games behind the Royals in the AL Central. The Blue Jays and Angels currently hold the two AL Wild Card positions. Let’s be honest, the Blue Jays will win the AL East, so the Yankees are also in the Wild Card race. And the Astros and Angels are separated by a half game in the AL West. The Twins also trail Baltimore, Texas and Tampa Bay now in the race for a Wild Card spot. The Detroit Tigers, who sold at the July trade deadline, are just one game behind the Twins. With all that said, a week ago the hope would have been to make a trade in August to bring in veteran pieces. Now, just a week later, the Twins front office likely needs to switch gears. They should now be looking to get veteran players through waivers so that they can make some deals for more young players. Let’s take a look at some of the Twins veterans who could be dealt in August. As you know, pretty much every player on the roster gets put on revocable waivers. If a player is claimed by another team, three things can happen. 1.) The Twins could work with that claiming team to work out a trade. 2.) The Twins could pull him back. 3.) The Twins could let the player go to the claiming team without anything in return. Before we go any further, Joe Mauer’s no-trade clause (due to his 10-5 status) means that he can’t be traded without his consent, so no need to go there. Kurt Suzuki – The 31-year-old catcher will likely clear waivers and could be traded to a team looking for a backup catcher for this year and next. Unlikely. Trevor Plouffe – He would get claimed, and the Twins would rightfully ask for a ton to actually trade him. Unlikely. Torii Hunter – He will only be traded if he wants to be traded. He’s said that he wants to end his career with the Twins, and my personal opinion is that he should as well. Very Unlikely. Oswaldo Arcia/Danny Santana – The Twins wouldn’t just hand them over, and both would be claimed. They both are out of options in 2016. I do think both could be traded in the right deal. Fifty-Fifty. Eduardo Escobar – I don’t know that Escobar would clear waivers. The Twins would want to get something in return for him. He’s still young and showed last year that he can be a solid MLB shortstop if he’s given that job. Teams are always looking for solid shortstop play.. I wouldn’t give up Escobar unless the team got a very nice return. Unlikely Eduardo Nunez – There is a decent chance that he would get claimed. He’s had a very solid season this year as a utility man, and there is value in that. Do the Twins plan on him being back next year? Possible. Ricky Nolasco – If anyone claimed him, the Twins would happily just hand him over, not worrying about return of any kind. Phil Hughes – We knew he wouldn’t duplicate those 2014 numbers, but he has been very inconsistent. On Sunday, he put in his worst start as a Twins pitcher. His velocity was down. The Twins had him on a three-year deal, but after last year, they chose to give him big money and five years. They wouldn’t just give him away, but he would likely clear waivers. Would anyone take on that contract now? Unlikely. Ervin Santana – After over a decade of solid year after solid year, Santana missed the first 80 games of the 2015 season due to a PED suspension. Since his return, he’s had a couple of very good starts and more poor starts. He’s still got another four years left on his contract. Unlikely. Mike Pelfrey – Pelfrey was actually quite good through much of the first half, but he has really struggled the last month. He did have a game very recently where he went eight shutout innings and gave up just four hits. However, more frequently, he hasn’t been able to get through five innings. That said, the Twins got cash for Kevin Correia, so they might be able to find a taker for Pelfrey too. There could be a team that wants to throw him in the bullpen, and he could get good out there. Pretty good. Brian Duensing/Casey Fien/Blaine Boyer – If anyone is interested at this point, take it. Possible. Following the July 31 trade deadline, Twins fans still thought they would add some talent in August. One week later, it looks like it’d be wise to switch gears and become sellers. People often asked me if I thought that the Twins should “Go for it” this year. My response was that this year we are just starting to see some of that immense talent from the farm system. They’re getting their feet wet and they did get to play in some intense games. But that it was year one of a plan that will hopefully have the Twins competing for division titles for the next eight to ten years. It’s like the first grade year, and yet, it wasn’t supposed to be. It’s more like kindergarten, readying yourself for everything that comes with elementary school. The Twins are pretty close. It’d be nice if they could deal some veterans for more talent. Frankly, the guys that they would be willing to trade won’t bring in a lot. It would still be nice to make a couple of deals to open up more playing time for some of the youth that will be part of that next six to eight years. Click here to view the article

While the Minnesota Twins are a homegrown team that relies heavily on players from their farm system to sustain success in the major leagues, reclamation projects are an important part of their team construction. Once highly touted prospects or players who have had some big league success and saw a dip in production with their former team for various reasons are often of interest to a team in a mid-sized city looking to get the most value out of their signings.These players are relatively low-risk and high-reward based upon their perceived potential and low cost to sign. If they pan out, the organization looks smart for turning around the career of a player who was once considered a top prospect. If they don’t, they can be released for relatively little cost to the team other than the cost of giving playing time to a struggling player. For a team like the Twins, who play in a mid-sized market and have relatively parsimonious ownership, this is a way to get potentially high-end talent without high cost or long term commitment. Pelfrey, a high draft pick who had two strong years as a member of the New York Mets, signed to a one-year, $4 million deal in 2013 following Tommy John surgery. Then, in a much scrutinized move, was re-signed for two years, $11 million following a tough first year. Fifteen million dollars is nothing to sneeze at, but it is relatively cheap for a former first-round pick who had two strong seasons as a member of the Mets in 2008 and 2010 — so long as he pitches like the player he can be. Pelfrey was awful in his first year with the Twins. He came back from Tommy John surgery faster than expected, pushing himself to get back on the mound against doctor’s orders, and felt the effects of accelerating his return timetable. He was 5-13 with a 5.19 ERA (79 ERA+), pitching 152.3 innings in 29 starts, making the $11 million extension he received the year after that much more perplexing. “He’s coming off Tommy John, he came back quickly, and we thought, ‘Okay, that’s a good starting point, but there’s more to come.’ That’s the reason,” Twins general manager Terry Ryan said when asked why the team re-signed Pelfrey. “And he showed some flashes, and he certainly showed the velocity and stuff like that, so we thought, ‘All right, he’s over the hump on the Tommy John response,’ and now all of a sudden we’re gonna get more. Well, unfortunately that didn’t happen.” He only made five starts in the first year of his second contract, finishing last season with a 0-0 record, 7.99 ERA (50 ERA+) and only 23.2 innings pitched. “Last year was awful,” says Pelfrey, who has always been accountable, even during his most trying times with the Twins, “so this offseason I came in and worked my tail off to … honor that two-year deal and be the best I could, and I thought I put myself in a pretty good situation.” Pelfrey has been the best pitcher in the starting rotation this year, going 5-3 with a 2.97 ERA (136 ERA+) in 13 starts. His play merits All-Star consideration and will likely garner a large contract for him in the offseason. A player playing out of his mind in a contract year is not unheard of — Joe Mauer hit .365/.444/.587 with 28 home runs the year before he signed his $184 million extension, and Kurt Suzuki made his first All-Star team on a one-year deal last season — and Pelfrey was certainly upset when he was assigned to the bullpen out of spring training, perhaps providing an incentive for him to pitch well in the rotation. Pelfrey, however, attributes his success to three things: He’s in good health, his split-finger has given him the “pitch that he’s lacked for 30 years,” and his sinker is much better. “First time in a couple years, maybe since Tommy John, I don’t have to make my sinker move,” he says. “I can just throw it, and it has that natural sink, which it always had before.” Pelfrey has had a split-finger since 2010, a year in which he went 15-9 with a 3.66 ERA (107 ERA+), but he had it revamped by bullpen coach Eddie Guardado in spring training this year. “To be honest with you, during spring training we’re watching these guys throw in the spring, and he’s throwing his splitty, and I looked at him and, jokingly, I go, ‘What is that pitch?’” says Guardado, chuckling. “He goes, ‘It’s my split finger, dawg.’ And I go, ‘That ain’t gonna work.” Guardado says sometimes he has trouble working with veteran pitchers, given that they have had a track record of success and are often stuck in their ways, but Pelfrey didn’t take much time to get the split-finger down. By the end of spring training he was throwing it with ease, giving him a pitch that falls out of the strike zone, which complements his mid-90s fastball, curve ball and sinker. “It’s like a new toy,” says Guardado, “He worked with it every day, and I just showed him the grip. Did we talk about it a little bit? Yeah, absolutely. But he did it all on his own. I’d like to take the credit, but he’s a hard-worker, man, so it’s all good.” The split-finger, complemented by a naturally moving sinker, has given Pelfrey more confidence on the mound. His usually plodding pace has been improved upon. In many ways, the Twins have the pitcher they’ve always wanted right now. Health is always a concern for players, especially pitchers, but it’s rare for a veteran player like Pelfrey to all of a sudden have another weapon in his arsenal. It’s easy to look back and say it was a good signing now, but it took some fortitude and, frankly, stubbornness for the team to retain him after a tough first year. It wasn’t just his potential, though, that enticed the Twins; they also liked his leadership. “It doesn’t hurt,” says Ryan. “It’s always nice to have a little bit of that veteran presence in any part of your club, especially when you’re talking about the rest of that starting staff, they’re relatively young.” He was given a corner locker in the team clubhouse, and according to his teammates, he’s very approachable and has a way about him of offering constructive criticism without making a struggling teammate feel the need to get defensive. “He’s easy to talk to, he’ll come up to talk to you about certain things he sees, and he’s definitely a leader,” says Kyle Gibson, 27, who is in his third year with the team. “I think he approaches every situation like that very well. He’s not gonna come up to you and say, ‘Hey, you were really bad today, and this is what I saw.’ He’s gonna ask you questions, he’s gonna try to approach it in the most mature way possible, because that’s the kind of guy he is.” Gibson, like Pelfrey, is a sinker-ball pitcher who has undergone Tommy John surgery. He says that the two were able to speak freely about the difficulty of coming back, as well as the mental hurdles every player has to go through during the ups and downs of a season. “He’s been a guy who I’ve talked to about learning how to attack with my fastball a little bit better at certain times,” says Gibson. “I’m always trying to talk to him about something just because I feel like going through the surgery, whether it’s how we were feeling last year or the year before, I’m always a guy who’s looking to learn something, and that’s a great guy to learn from.” In some ways it’s unfortunate that Pelfrey is coming into his own in a contract year at age 31. He’s a Scott Boras client, so he’s unlikely to come back on a discount, and the Twins suddenly have plenty of depth in the starting rotation. Still, for the time being he’s one of the best pitchers in the league, and it couldn’t have come at a better time. The team is finally competitive again, Phil Hughes is off to a slow start, so the team is in need of an ace, and Pelfrey has no doubt left a meaningful mark on the younger pitchers, especially Gibson. “So far I’m glad that it’s working out,” says Pelfrey, “but there’s a lot of baseball left, so we’ll just keep it going.” This article was originally published on the Cold Omaha section of 105TheTicket.com. Tune in to The Wake Up Call every Sunday at 8:00 am to hear the crew break down the week in Minnesota sports. Follow Tom on Twitter @tschreier3. Click here to view the article

The calendar has already passed halfway through June and the 2015 major league baseball season is starting to take shape. Nearing the halfway point of the season, teams are starting to categorize themselves as contenders or pretenders.Right now, the Twins land somewhere in the middle, and while they are not necessarily buyers at the trade deadline, they can improve from within the organization. The biggest question though, is what they do with their $55 million man. A season ago, the Twins 4.57 team ERA ranked 29th, or second to last, in all of major league baseball. Generally out of games before they started, Minnesota knew that their pitching needed to start giving their offense a chance. They made a splash, signing free agent Ervin Santana to the largest free agent contract in franchise history. After spending a season with the Atlanta Braves in the National League, Santana was ready to return home to the American League. Having pitched in 2003 in the AL Central, the Twins were a relative comfort zone for the free agent. His career 4.48 ERA is indicative of a pitcher who can be a difference maker, but someone who still has some questions to answer. For the Twins though, he's a legitimate number two who should provide plenty of value. Now coming to the end of a 50-game suspension due to performance-enhancing drug use, Santana is nearing the day that he can rejoin the fold. After the Twins jettisoned Jordan Schafer, the club has an open 40-man roster spot for their high dollar pitcher. However, how does the ninth best pitching team in the American League (3.84 team ERA) accommodate him? It's probably safe to consider both Phil Hughes and Kyle Gibson locks to stay in the rotation. Despite Hughes' struggles in 2015, he's still seen as the staff ace. Hughes' (4.79) ERA is inflated by his inability to control the long ball this season. After giving up just 16 home runs all of last season, he's allowed 15 through June 19. Gibson has been one of the early season bright spots. Despite a tough outing his last time out, the Twins former first-rounder owns a 3.33 ERA and has been one of the American League's best pitchers in the early going. His strikeout and walk numbers virtually match his career lines, and despite his 4.41 FIP (fielding independent pitching), he should be counted on to keep his roll going. Owning the middle ground is rookie Trevor May. A 4.26 ERA probably doesn't do justice to just how good May has looked at times. Despite a few tougher starts, he's looked every bit a top of the rotation type. His 7.7 K/9 and 1.7 BB/9 are both great, and his 3.16 FIP suggests he should only continue to improve. The Twins should see him as a lock. Arguably the toughest to dissect of the group is Mike Pelfrey. Going from a rotation snub, to the bullpen, and back into the rotation, Pelfrey has been the club's best pitcher this season. It's hard to include him as a lock because he seems to make us continually hold our breath; yet suggesting he's middle of the road with his current numbers is also not doing him justice. A 2.97 ERA is going to be tough to sustain while striking out right around four batters a game, but the Twins absolutely have to ride the wave until it crashes. That leaves recently reinstated starter Tommy Milone. Of the group, Milone is probably the least likely to have success in the bullpen. A soft-tossing lefty, Milone absolutely dominated Triple-A after being sent down earlier this year. In his three starts since rejoining the big league club, Milone owns a 2.37 ERA and has allowed opposing hitters just a .236 batting average against him. In short, the question becomes, where does Ervin Santana fit? There's absolutely no doubt that the Twins need to find a place for him in their rotation. It's also a great to need to ask this question, rather than be able to point to three different pitchers that don't belong. Santana is making the first of what will be three starts for Triple-A Rochester on Saturday. Over the course of the next week and a half, Minnesota will be evaluating their staff as a whole, and trying to answer the big question. While I don't envy the decision-makers in this situation, the reality is that as a whole, the Twins staff still is a bit more quantity than quality. Santana should boost the quality aspect, and the Twins will know they have depth when they need it. I'd look at inserting Santana in the place of Milone, knowing that if and when Pelfrey blows up, you have an option you can immediately turn to. Regardless of what happens, this is a position the Twins have not found themselves in for at least the past four seasons. Quality pitching had become a thing of the past, but this club, under Paul Molitor and Neil Allen, it turning over a welcomed new leaf. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz Click here to view the article

While the Minnesota Twins are a homegrown team that relies heavily on players from their farm system to sustain success in the major leagues, reclamation projects are an important part of their team construction. Once-highly-touted prospects or players that have had some big league success and saw a dip in production with their former team for various reasons are often of interest to a team in a mid-sized city looking to get the most value out of their signings. These players are relatively low-risk and high-reward based upon their perceived potential and low cost to sign. If they pan out, the organization looks smart for turning around the career of a player that was once considered a top prospect. If they don’t, they can be released for relatively little cost to the team other than the cost of giving playing time to a struggling player. For a team like the Twins, who play in a mid-sized market and have relatively parsimonious ownership, this is a way to get potentially high-end talent without high cost or long term commitment. Pelfrey, a high draft pick who had two strong years as a member of the New York Mets, signed to a one-year, $4 million deal in 2013 following Tommy John surgery. Then, in a much scrutinized move, was re-signed for two years, $11 million following a tough first year. Fifteen million dollars is nothing to sneeze at, but it is relatively cheap for a former first round pick who had two strong seasons as a member of the Mets in 2008 and 2010 — so long as he pitches like the player he can be. Pelfrey was awful in his first year with the Twins. He came back from Tommy John surgery faster than expected, pushing himself to get back on the mound against doctor’s orders, and felt the effects of accelerating his return timetable. He was 5-13 with a 5.19 ERA (79 ERA+), pitching 152.3 innings in 29 starts, making the $11 million extension he received the year after that much more perplexing. “He’s coming off Tommy John, he came back quickly, and we thought, ‘Okay, that’s a good starting point, but there’s more to come.’ That’s the reason,” Twins general manager Terry Ryan said when asked why the team re-signed Pelfrey. “And he showed some flashes, and he certainly showed the velocity and stuff like that, so we thought, ‘All right, he’s over the hump on the Tommy John response,’ and now all of a sudden we’re gonna get more. Well, unfortunately that didn’t happen.” He only made five starts in the first year of his second contract, finishing last season with a 0-0 record, 7.99 ERA (50 ERA+) and only 23.2 innings pitched. “Last year was awful,” says Pelfrey, who has always been accountable, even during his most trying times with the Twins, “so this offseason I came in and worked my tail off to … honor that two-year deal and be the best I could, and I thought I put myself in a pretty good situation.” Pelfrey has been the best pitcher in the starting rotation this year, going 5-3 with a 2.97 ERA (136 ERA+) in 13 starts. His play merits All-Star consideration and will likely garner a large contract for him in the offseason. A player playing out of his mind in a contract year is not unheard of — Joe Mauer hit .365/.444/.587 with 28 home runs the year before he signed his $184 million extension, and Kurt Suzuki made his first All-Star team on a one-year deal last season — and Pelfrey was certainly upset when he was assigned to the bullpen out of Spring Training, perhaps providing an incentive for him to pitch well in the rotation. Pelfrey, however, attributes his success to three things: He’s in good health, his split-finger has given him the “pitch that he’s lacked for 30 years,” and his sinker is much better. “First time in a couple years, maybe since Tommy John, I don’t have to make my sinker move,” he says. “I can just throw it, and it has that natural sink, which it always had before.” Pelfrey has had a split-finger since 2010, a year in which he went 15-9 with a 3.66 ERA (107 ERA+), but he had it revamped by bullpen coach Eddie Guardado in Spring Training this year. “To be honest with you, during Spring Training we’re watching these guys throw in the spring, and he’s throwing his splitty, and I looked at him and, jokingly, I go, ‘What is that pitch?’” says Guardado, chuckling. “He goes, ‘It’s my split finger, dawg.’ And I go, ‘That ain’t gonna work.” Guardado says sometimes he has trouble working with veteran pitchers, given that they have had a track record of success and are often stuck in their ways, but Pelfrey didn’t take much time to get the split-finger down. By the end of Spring Training he was throwing it with ease, giving him a pitch that falls out of the strike zone, which complements his mid-90s fastball, curveball and sinker. “It’s like a new toy,” says Guardado, “He worked with it every day, and I just showed him the grip. Did we talk about it a little bit? Yeah, absolutely. But he did it all on his own. I’d like to take the credit, but he’s a hard-worker, man, so it’s all good.” The split-finger, complemented by a naturally moving sinker, has given Pelfrey more confidence on the mound. His usually plodding pace has been improved upon. In many ways, the Twins have the pitcher they’ve always wanted right now. Health is always a concern for players, especially pitchers, but it’s rare for a veteran player like Pelfrey to all of a sudden have another weapon in his arsenal. It’s easy to look back and say it was a good signing now, but it took some fortitude and, frankly, stubbornness for the team to retain him after a tough first year. It wasn’t just his potential, though, that enticed the Twins; they also liked his leadership. “It doesn’t hurt,” says Ryan. “It’s always nice to have a little bit of that veteran presence in any part of your club, especially when you’re talking about the rest of that starting staff, they’re relatively young.” He was given a corner locker in the team clubhouse, and according to his teammates, he’s very approachable and has a way about him of offering constructive criticism without making a struggling teammate feel the need to get defensive. “He’s easy to talk to, he’ll come up to talk to you about certain things he sees, and he’s definitely a leader,” says Kyle Gibson, 27, who is in his third year with the team. “I think he approaches every situation like that very well. He’s not gonna come up to you and say, ‘Hey, you were really bad today, and this is what I saw.’ He’s gonna ask you questions, he’s gonna try to approach it in the most mature way possible, because that’s the kind of guy he is.” Gibson, like Pelfrey, is a sinkerball pitcher who has undergone Tommy John surgery. He says that the two were able to speak freely about the difficulty of coming back, as well as the mental hurdles every player has to go through during the ups and downs of a season. “He’s been a guy who I’ve talked to about learning how to attack with my fastball a little bit better at certain times,” says Gibson. “I’m always trying to talk to him about something just because I feel like going through the surgery, whether it’s how we were feeling last year or the year before, I’m always a guy who’s looking to learn something, and that’s a great guy to learn from.” In some ways it’s unfortunate that Pelfrey is coming into his own in a contract year at age 31. He’s a Scott Boras client, so he’s unlikely to come back on a discount, and the Twins suddenly have plenty of depth in the starting rotation. Still, for the time being he’s one of the best pitchers in the league, and it couldn’t have come at a better time. The team is finally competitive again, Phil Hughes is off to a slow start, so the team is in need of an ace, and Pelfrey has no doubt left a meaningful mark on the younger pitchers, especially Gibson. “So far I’m glad that it’s working out,” says Pelfrey, “but there’s a lot of baseball left, so we’ll just keep it going.” This article was originally published on the Cold Omaha section of 105TheTicket.com. Tune in to The Wake Up Call every Sunday at 8:00 am to hear the crew break down the week in Minnesota sports. Follow Tom on Twitter @tschreier3.

Let's face it. The events that unfolded at Target Field this week were disheartening, demoralizing and flat-out depressing. This team had a chance to make a real statement by defending first place at home against the division's top contender and came up completely flat, scoring just three times in three games. However, one area that continues to be a (shocking) major strength for the Twins is keeping me from getting overly distraught.Lost in the offensive ineptitude of the past two series has been the enduring effectiveness of the starting rotation. While the Twins have lost five of their last six contests, their starting pitchers have combined for a 3.26 ERA during that span, and have completed six or more innings in every game with the exception of J.R. Graham's spot start against Milwaukee. For the season, the Twins rank ninth in the majors and fourth in the American League with a 3.88 ERA from their starters. That is incredible in the context of the past four years: Year | ERA | MLB Rank 2014 | 5.06 | 30th 2013 | 5.26 | 30th 2012 | 5.40 | 29th 2011 | 4.64 | 26th Not only are the Twins experiencing a monumental turnaround in comparison to the last four years, they're actually on track for their best rotation output in nearly a decade. The last time Minnesota ranked ninth or higher in starting pitching ERA was 2006, when they won 96 games behind the outstanding performances of Francisco Liriano, Brad Radke and Cy Young winner Johan Santana. What might be most impressive about this drastic improvement is that the Twins have done it without their big-money free agent signing (who will enter the fold next month), and without their top pitching prospect (who, by many accounts, is big-league ready). They have also done it with 2014's best starter, Phil Hughes, putting up a rotation-worst 4.81 ERA. To what do we attribute this transformation? Growth through experience for the younger guys? The influence of new pitching coach Neil Allen? Plain old good luck? It is almost certainly a combination of those factors and more, but I see no reason to believe that the bottom is going to fall out any time soon. No one other than Mike Pelfrey is pitching out of his mind, and the Twins have enough quality depth to handle injuries or meltdowns. Experts often say that winning games all begins with starting pitching, while that notion hasn't exactly held up over the last week, it usually proves true in the long term. The lineup won't slump like this forever. The bullpen's issues can be addressed (and that began on Wednesday when the club finally swapped out Tim Stauffer for a superior young arm). The Twins might not be quite ready for legitimate contention, but as long as the rotation maintains its steady and rock solid production, I'm confident they'll remain respectable and relevant throughout the rest of the season. Click here to view the article

Mike Pelfrey has a lot of making up to do in order to earn the $18.66 million the Minnesota Twins have paid him these last three years, but he's finally starting to pay off. Pelfrey made roughly $150,000 per inning the last two seasons, but this season he's All-Star trade bait. This blog was originally published at Go Gonzo Journal. Pelfrey has made a solid case to make the American League All-Star pitching rotation. He's 5-2 with a 2.28 ERA, 1.224 WHIP, 178 ERA+, and 2.6 WAR. He's fourth in the American League in ERA and fourth in WAR. He hasn't been worth more than one win above the replacement player since 2010, when he went 15-9, tossed 204 innings with an ERA of 3.66 and ERA+ of 107. He's putting up better numbers than when he was 26! The most valuable thing about Pelfrey is that he's cheap – maybe if you're not a Twins fan and are familiar with his past two seasons – but teams like the Houston Astros, Seattle Mariners, San Diego Padres, New York Yankees, and maybe even the Mets and Cubs, will happily offer a quality prospect and pay Pelfrey $3.5 million to take them to the Playoffs and go away at the end of the year. I'd love to get some bullpen arms – close to MLB-ready pitchers who throw gas. This is why I hope the Twins are sellers at the MLB Trade Deadline. We have starting pitching depth for the first time in a while, and Pelfrey should be made available. He won't be back, so why not get something for the guy who has cost the franchise a pretty penny recovering from injury the past two years. But if the Twins are in it, and Pelfrey continues to look like an All-Star, I don't see Terry Ryan dropping the dead weight that has been Mike Pelfrey – especially if he's still our best pitcher after Ervin Santana returns from his suspension. ---- @GoGonzoJournal is a free, literary journal featuring the rants of sports fans, educational essays, book and movie reviews, and news coverage written in the Gonzo style of Dr. Hunter S. Thompson. They also host @****DickandBert – a live, explicit Minnesota sports podcast on Mixlr and iTunes.

I warned everyone in April that this might be a real possibility. At that time, just several starts into the 2015 season, the analysis was smothered with caution sauce. Statistically, there were indicators abounding that things were going to go south quickly, however there seemed to be something different about this Mike Pelfrey. This Mike Pelfrey was peppering the zone, possessed improved velocity, induced weak contact, had improved his swing-and-miss capabilities, and added a second pitch.For various reasons Pelfrey’s ability to sustain this success was questioned. Despite the swinging strikes, he really didn’t strike anyone out. He put a ton of baserunners on but managed to wiggle out of jams by the skin of his teeth. Surely the wheels were ready to come off. And when the Detroit Tigers pounded him for 10 hits over four innings a few short weeks later, it felt as if the foreboding avalanche of regression would leave no survivors. But then something unexpected happened: He didn’t regress. Mike Pelfrey went back out and threw 13 innings of 10 hit, two-run ball over his next two starts. Instead, he concluded Tuesday night’s victory over the Boston Red Sox tied with Edinson Volquez with a 2.77 ERA -- the 10th best in the American League. It is especially crazy considering his expected performance figures peg him to be around 4.50. How has he continued to outperform performance indicators like xFIP? Nine starts is by no means an ample sample but the traits that Pelfrey demonstrated in April have rolled over into May. In addition to the ERA (which should not be used in gauging the quality of a pitcher’s performance so stop using it), Pelfrey has managed to keep opposing hitters away from hard contact. According to ESPN/trumedia, he maintains a well-hit average of .103 -- this time 12th best in all of baseball. BaseballSavant.com’s batted ball velocity more or less confirms this, saying Pelfrey’s batted ball velocity of 87 mph is 18th among all qualified pitchers. Tons of contact but the vast majority of it is weak. Pelfrey’s inclusion of the splitter has elevated his arsenal to a new level. It is lethal against left-handed hitters and has kept right-handers honest to some degree. Watch the movement it showed in his last start against Pittsburgh. This was a nasty pitch that incited a silly swing from the Pirates’ Pedro Alvarez: http://i.imgur.com/sRa4T8a.gif This season’s splitter has a lack of spin and that provides drag and drop. When thrown with similar arm speed as a fastball it can produce some head-shaking swings. Pelfrey’s current .202 batting average against lefties is 10th lowest in baseball by a right-hander -- company that includes pitching elite like Felix Hernandez, Matt Harvey and Sonny Gray -- and that development undoubted coincides with his use of the splitter. The other reason he has been able to achieve weak contact on a consistent basis is location and movement on his fastball. Over the previous two years with the Twins, Pelfrey’s low-90s fastball was mostly seen hovering over the middle of the plate. Now he is hitting the low corners of the zone with solid movement: http://i.imgur.com/iAVcMwX.gif Download attachment: Fastball Location.png The results have been his highest ground ball rate on the pitch since 2010 because hitters are unable to barrel it up. While this may feel like an Arrested Development’s Ann moment, Mike Pelfrey has been good this season (“Him?”) and if he continues to twirl pitches the way he has while receiving competent infield defense behind him, he just might maintain throughout this surprising season. At the same time Pelfrey has outpaced his strand rate, benefited from the lowest batting average on balls in play of his career all while posting the second-lowest strikeout rate of his career -- there is room for regression. Click here to view the article