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When the deal for Carlos Correa became official, the Twins went from having no shortstop to arguably the best in baseball. Inked to a three-year contract worth $105.3 million, Correa gives Minnesota a strong option at a position of need. However, what immediately became apparent in the deal is that there’s an opportunity for everyone to shift things in the future. Correa’s contract includes a limited no-trade clause for 2022, presumably only being open to contenders. Then there are opt-outs for both 2023 and 2024, with full no-trade clauses should he stay with the Twins. Making $35 million this season, Correa has the opportunity to bet on himself should he desire a long-term deal next offseason. Minnesota can pivot from a star talent if things go belly up, and they could really be on the hook for just $35 million should the former Astros star go elsewhere. Before acquiring Correa, Minnesota moved on from Josh Donaldson and the $50 million remaining on his contract. Spending just two seasons in Minnesota, one of which was truncated due to Covid, Donaldson earned just $30 million of his near $100 million contract after becoming the largest free-agent signing in Twins history. Despite a productive 2021 season, in which his legs remained relatively healthy, Falvey chose to pivot from Donaldson and turn the roster over. We’ve seen this shake out as the front office sent Jose Berrios to the Toronto Blue Jays rather than being the ones to pay him. Instead of inking their frontline starter to a long-term deal, Minnesota picked up top prospects and then swung a trade for another arm that looks very similar to Berrios. A few seasons ago, we watched Minnesota swing a deal for Jaime Garcia, then with the Atlanta Braves, only to make one start before sending him to the New York Yankees. The 2017 club went on to make the American League Wild Card game, but it was buying and selling at the deadline that helped them go from three games below .500 to seven games above. I’ve been adamant that Minnesota didn’t need to dump Donaldson’s contract to sign Trevor Story (or, as we found out, Carlos Correa). The front office apparently agrees with that sentiment as well, and the greater plan was to shift the roster around. Having acquired a new third baseman, catcher, and now shortstop, there’s plenty of talent to challenge the American League Central and beyond. There are more additions coming for this roster, and ultimately it comes down to who Falvey sees as the best combination of talents and personalities. Over the years, we’ve heard plenty about the Twins being reluctant to sign a free agent pitcher to a long-term deal. That’s generally what the market trends have suggested needs to happen, but we are being shown Minnesota’s willingness to get creative for top talent in ways that don’t hamstring future flexibility. Maybe Sonny Gray isn’t with the Twins past the 2023 season, and maybe Carlos Correa decides to go elsewhere after 2022, but there’s no denying that this front office continues to find a way to give themselves flexibility. Adding talent isn’t a straightforward practice, and having dollars doesn’t necessarily mean spending them on the first long-term deal to be accepted is the best get. Patience is hard to practice while holes need to be filled and options fly off the board. You have to give it to this regime, though; they know what they’re doing even if they march to the beat of their own drum. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook, or email
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Last week may have been the craziest in organization history for the Minnesota Twins. There was expected pandemonium coming out of the lockout, and Derek Falvey delivered. In his past and present moves, he continues to display flexibility in roster construction. It bodes well for the Twins' chances. When the deal for Carlos Correa became official, the Twins went from having no shortstop to arguably the best in baseball. Inked to a three-year contract worth $105.3 million, Correa gives Minnesota a strong option at a position of need. However, what immediately became apparent in the deal is that there’s an opportunity for everyone to shift things in the future. Correa’s contract includes a limited no-trade clause for 2022, presumably only being open to contenders. Then there are opt-outs for both 2023 and 2024, with full no-trade clauses should he stay with the Twins. Making $35 million this season, Correa has the opportunity to bet on himself should he desire a long-term deal next offseason. Minnesota can pivot from a star talent if things go belly up, and they could really be on the hook for just $35 million should the former Astros star go elsewhere. Before acquiring Correa, Minnesota moved on from Josh Donaldson and the $50 million remaining on his contract. Spending just two seasons in Minnesota, one of which was truncated due to Covid, Donaldson earned just $30 million of his near $100 million contract after becoming the largest free-agent signing in Twins history. Despite a productive 2021 season, in which his legs remained relatively healthy, Falvey chose to pivot from Donaldson and turn the roster over. We’ve seen this shake out as the front office sent Jose Berrios to the Toronto Blue Jays rather than being the ones to pay him. Instead of inking their frontline starter to a long-term deal, Minnesota picked up top prospects and then swung a trade for another arm that looks very similar to Berrios. A few seasons ago, we watched Minnesota swing a deal for Jaime Garcia, then with the Atlanta Braves, only to make one start before sending him to the New York Yankees. The 2017 club went on to make the American League Wild Card game, but it was buying and selling at the deadline that helped them go from three games below .500 to seven games above. I’ve been adamant that Minnesota didn’t need to dump Donaldson’s contract to sign Trevor Story (or, as we found out, Carlos Correa). The front office apparently agrees with that sentiment as well, and the greater plan was to shift the roster around. Having acquired a new third baseman, catcher, and now shortstop, there’s plenty of talent to challenge the American League Central and beyond. There are more additions coming for this roster, and ultimately it comes down to who Falvey sees as the best combination of talents and personalities. Over the years, we’ve heard plenty about the Twins being reluctant to sign a free agent pitcher to a long-term deal. That’s generally what the market trends have suggested needs to happen, but we are being shown Minnesota’s willingness to get creative for top talent in ways that don’t hamstring future flexibility. Maybe Sonny Gray isn’t with the Twins past the 2023 season, and maybe Carlos Correa decides to go elsewhere after 2022, but there’s no denying that this front office continues to find a way to give themselves flexibility. Adding talent isn’t a straightforward practice, and having dollars doesn’t necessarily mean spending them on the first long-term deal to be accepted is the best get. Patience is hard to practice while holes need to be filled and options fly off the board. You have to give it to this regime, though; they know what they’re doing even if they march to the beat of their own drum. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook, or email View full article
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Subject: Jaime Garcia Why You Remember Him: The summer of 2017. The Twins were contending for an AL Central pennant, trailing division-leading Cleveland by a mere half-game. Shoring up their rotation for late-summer glory, the team moved prospect Huascar Ynoa (more on him later) to Atlanta for veteran starter Jaime Garcia (along with Anthony Recker and cash money). Garcia immediately stepped in and picked up a win in his first start, giving up three earned runs and eight hits in 6 2/3 innings. And then he was gone. That half-game deficit was as of July 20. Ten days later, the Twins were seven games back of a surging Cleveland and in the rearview of a hot Kansas City squad. With the trade deadline looming, Minnesota reversed course and sent Garcia to the Yankees for Zach Littell and Dietrich Enns. The kicker, of course, is that the Twins still snagged the last wild card spot in a subpar American League and lost to Garcia’s Yankees. He did not pitch in New York’s 8-4 victory, marking one of the few Twins playoff defeats to the Bronx Bombers that could have been even more humiliating. What You Might Remember, Part 1: Littell left Minnesota in free agency in 2020 and became a crucial part of San Francisco’s 2021 NL West-winning bullpen. It is very, very fair to say the Twins could have used him in 2021. What You Might Remember, Part 2: Ynoa had an up-and-down year for Atlanta last season, posting a 4.05 ERA in 17 starts, hitting a grand slam, breaking his pitching hand by punching a bench, and being a late scratch for a critical NLCS start, eventually missing the rest of the postseason. The whole World Series thing probably makes up for that. It is very, very fair to say the Twins could have used him in 2021. What You Don’t Remember, Part 1: Dietrich Enns is currently pitching in Japan for the Saitama Seibu Lions. It is very, very fair to say the Twins might have used him in 2021. What You Don’t Remember, Part 2: Anthony Recker is now part of the Mets broadcast team. It is very, very fair to say that Bally Sports North might have used him in 2021. The 2017 Jaime Garcia Trade Winners, Ranked: Atlanta San Francisco, despite not being involved in either trade New York Minnesota What’s He Up To: Garcia decade-long career ended after a stint with the Cubs in 2018. He now works with Water Mission, a Christian organization that provides clean water to the developing world. Question for Commenters: What was your favorite Jaime Garcia Twins moment?
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The tale of a man who was traded twice in ten days, but oh what a ten days it was. Subject: Jaime Garcia Why You Remember Him: The summer of 2017. The Twins were contending for an AL Central pennant, trailing division-leading Cleveland by a mere half-game. Shoring up their rotation for late-summer glory, the team moved prospect Huascar Ynoa (more on him later) to Atlanta for veteran starter Jaime Garcia (along with Anthony Recker and cash money). Garcia immediately stepped in and picked up a win in his first start, giving up three earned runs and eight hits in 6 2/3 innings. And then he was gone. That half-game deficit was as of July 20. Ten days later, the Twins were seven games back of a surging Cleveland and in the rearview of a hot Kansas City squad. With the trade deadline looming, Minnesota reversed course and sent Garcia to the Yankees for Zach Littell and Dietrich Enns. The kicker, of course, is that the Twins still snagged the last wild card spot in a subpar American League and lost to Garcia’s Yankees. He did not pitch in New York’s 8-4 victory, marking one of the few Twins playoff defeats to the Bronx Bombers that could have been even more humiliating. What You Might Remember, Part 1: Littell left Minnesota in free agency in 2020 and became a crucial part of San Francisco’s 2021 NL West-winning bullpen. It is very, very fair to say the Twins could have used him in 2021. What You Might Remember, Part 2: Ynoa had an up-and-down year for Atlanta last season, posting a 4.05 ERA in 17 starts, hitting a grand slam, breaking his pitching hand by punching a bench, and being a late scratch for a critical NLCS start, eventually missing the rest of the postseason. The whole World Series thing probably makes up for that. It is very, very fair to say the Twins could have used him in 2021. What You Don’t Remember, Part 1: Dietrich Enns is currently pitching in Japan for the Saitama Seibu Lions. It is very, very fair to say the Twins might have used him in 2021. What You Don’t Remember, Part 2: Anthony Recker is now part of the Mets broadcast team. It is very, very fair to say that Bally Sports North might have used him in 2021. The 2017 Jaime Garcia Trade Winners, Ranked: Atlanta San Francisco, despite not being involved in either trade New York Minnesota What’s He Up To: Garcia decade-long career ended after a stint with the Cubs in 2018. He now works with Water Mission, a Christian organization that provides clean water to the developing world. Question for Commenters: What was your favorite Jaime Garcia Twins moment? View full article
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Minnesota’s relief core has struggled through much of 2021. It doesn’t help to see a former Twins pitcher finding success after the team gave up on him and got nothing in return. Relievers can be one of the trickiest groups for teams to evaluate. One relief pitcher can look great, and another can look terrible with such small sample sizes attached to their performances. Minnesota saw multiple relievers leave last winter and not all of them have found success with their new teams. However, one pitcher might be proving the Twins gave up on him a little too early. Zack Littell joined the Twins in 2017 as part of an interesting trade deadline. Minnesota acquired Jaime Garcia from the Braves and then after making one start, he was dealt to the Yankees. Littell was part of the return from New York, and he was amid a tremendous minor league campaign where he posted a 2.12 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP. Littell’s time in Minnesota was filled with ups and downs. After finding some success in the upper minors, Littell seemed to be part of Minnesota’s future bullpen with the numbers he compiled in 2019. As a 23-year-old, he posted a 2.68 ERA with a 1.16 WHIP with a 32 to 9 strikeout to walk ratio. He was striking out less than a batter per inning, but his ERA+ and FIP pointed to him being an above average relief option. He was also one of the team’s most reliable relief arms down the stretch. Things couldn’t have gone much worse for Littell in 2020. He made six appearances with the Twins and allowed five home runs. He made multiple trips to the injured list as his elbow was bothering him. This probably made it easier for Minnesota to designate him for assignment and remove him from the 40-man roster without another team making a claim. This still left the team in a little bit of a dilemma as he would need to be added back to the 40-man this winter or become a minor league free agent. He became a free agent and signed a minor league deal with the San Francisco Giants. In a division with the Dodgers and Padres, the Giants weren’t supposed to be in contention, but they entered play on Monday with a one game division lead. Littell has been part of the surprise club as he has posted a 1.47 ERA with a 0.98 WHIP across 20 appearances. The team even turned to him to make a start for the club. His strikeouts per nine are higher than his career average and he’s doing a better job of keeping the ball in the park. Last year’s elbow issues seem to be behind him. There are likely multiple reasons that Minnesota let Littell go whether they were worried about his elbow or low strikeout numbers. However, his success is tough to swallow when the Twins have struggled to get consistent production out of the bullpen in 2021. Do you think the Twins gave up on Littell too early? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email View full article
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Relievers can be one of the trickiest groups for teams to evaluate. One relief pitcher can look great, and another can look terrible with such small sample sizes attached to their performances. Minnesota saw multiple relievers leave last winter and not all of them have found success with their new teams. However, one pitcher might be proving the Twins gave up on him a little too early. Zack Littell joined the Twins in 2017 as part of an interesting trade deadline. Minnesota acquired Jaime Garcia from the Braves and then after making one start, he was dealt to the Yankees. Littell was part of the return from New York, and he was amid a tremendous minor league campaign where he posted a 2.12 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP. Littell’s time in Minnesota was filled with ups and downs. After finding some success in the upper minors, Littell seemed to be part of Minnesota’s future bullpen with the numbers he compiled in 2019. As a 23-year-old, he posted a 2.68 ERA with a 1.16 WHIP with a 32 to 9 strikeout to walk ratio. He was striking out less than a batter per inning, but his ERA+ and FIP pointed to him being an above average relief option. He was also one of the team’s most reliable relief arms down the stretch. Things couldn’t have gone much worse for Littell in 2020. He made six appearances with the Twins and allowed five home runs. He made multiple trips to the injured list as his elbow was bothering him. This probably made it easier for Minnesota to designate him for assignment and remove him from the 40-man roster without another team making a claim. This still left the team in a little bit of a dilemma as he would need to be added back to the 40-man this winter or become a minor league free agent. He became a free agent and signed a minor league deal with the San Francisco Giants. In a division with the Dodgers and Padres, the Giants weren’t supposed to be in contention, but they entered play on Monday with a one game division lead. Littell has been part of the surprise club as he has posted a 1.47 ERA with a 0.98 WHIP across 20 appearances. The team even turned to him to make a start for the club. His strikeouts per nine are higher than his career average and he’s doing a better job of keeping the ball in the park. Last year’s elbow issues seem to be behind him. There are likely multiple reasons that Minnesota let Littell go whether they were worried about his elbow or low strikeout numbers. However, his success is tough to swallow when the Twins have struggled to get consistent production out of the bullpen in 2021. Do you think the Twins gave up on Littell too early? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email
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Revisiting Falvine Trades: Part 2, The Jaime García Saga
Tyy1117 posted a blog entry in Extra Innings
Entering July 24th 2017, the Minnesota Twins were 49-48 coming off a 9-6 loss to the Detroit Tigers the night before. The Twins now stood 2.5 games back of Cleveland, and ready to make a push towards claiming the AL Central crown for the first time in 7 years. "Falvine" decided to push the button, making their first major trade during their Twins tenure, and acquire Atlanta Braves starter, Jaime García . Finally, after years of purely terrible baseball, the Twins were back, and the Front Office was willing to go for it. Now, it's July 28th 2017, the Minnesota Twins are in Oakland, and on a 4 game skid as they sit 49-51. Jaime García takes the mound for the first, and only time as a Minnesota Twin. He pitches well, but unremarkably as he leads the Twins to a 6-3 victory ending the losing streak with a decent stat line: 6.2 IP 7 K 3 BB 8 H 3 ER. Flash forward a bit further to July 30th, the Twins are 50-52, Cleveland has gone on a run, and the Twins are 7 games out. Oh, how the turn tables. Falvine decides they're no longer pushing for that first division title in 7 years, so why hold onto the rental they just acquired? So, after spending less than a week as a Twin, Jaime García packs his bags once again and heads to the Bronx to become a Yankee. As the leaves turn from green to wonderful fall colors, the Twins find out it didn't really matter if they bought or sold. Jaime García didn't pitch very well as a Yankee, and the Twins still managed to claw to a 85-77 record, going from the worst team in baseball to a wild card team in just a year. 7 years of terrible baseball. 13 years without a playoff victory, now with a chance to change that. October 3rd 2017, enter: the New York Yankees. We all know how this story goes, there's no point in reliving this one again. So, okay, the trades themselves, what exactly happened? Looking back, I think we can safely consider Jaime García's performance itself a wash and rather insignificant. But what about the prospects involved? Trade 1: The Minnesota Twins receive: SP Jaime García, C Anthony Recker, Cash Considerations. (Recker was soon released and never played for the Twins) The Atlanta Braves receive: SP Huascar Ynoa Trade 2: The Minnesota Twins receive: SP Zack Littell , SP Dietrich Enns The New York Yankees receive: SP Jaime García So essentially, the Twins gave up Ynoa, to get Littell and Enns. Neither Littell or Enns are with the Twins anymore, and only Littell had marginal success. Meanwhile, I have yet to mention the ginormous horse in the room. Huascar Ynoa has been the ace of the Atlanta Braves pitching staff thus far in 2021 pitching 44.2 Innings while garnering 1.8 bWAR. However, he could be out the rest of this year. That being said, the Braves potentially have a really good pitcher for a long time to come, and Falvine essentially gave Ynoa to them for free. Not every trade works out, many work out great, and many don't, and unfortunately this whole saga is the latter. Perhaps the best part of this whole saga for the Twins is that a day after sending Jaime packing to New York, they signed a guy from Utica with a rad mustache who was driving for Uber, fan fave Randy Dobnak. Once again, all stats are thanks to Baseball Reference, and the picture thanks to MLB.com. What trades should we revisit next?- 2 comments
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Free Agent Starters By The Numbers Part II: WAR and Projections
Greg Logan posted an article in Twins
To start, let’s look at where the Twins currently stand by the one major projection system that’s been fully public so far. On FanGraphs you’ll find an early look at their projected standings for 2018 based on the Steamer projection system. FanGraphs writers have cautioned that their projected standings will be updated sometime in March to incorporate ZiPS, so expect these estimates to change, but Steamer currently projects the Twins to finish at 80-82, or 12 games behind Cleveland in the AL Central and 9 games behind the Yankees and Angels, who are projected about even for both wild cards. Even if an AL Central teeming with 90-loss teams gifts the Twins a few extra wins in the Wild Card race, Steamer seems to think the Twins have a ways yet to go to catch up with the Yankees and Angels after their aggressive offseasons. So how did the free agents stack up with the Twins’ candidates in 2017, and what do the major projections systems expect from them in 2018? Let’s take a look: *As mentioned above, FanGraphs hasn’t yet released their formal “Depth Chart” projections, which aggregate ZiPS and Steamer and prorate for the FanGraphs staff’s playing time projections, so I’ve calculated the Depth Chart projections manually based on FanGraphs’ methodology and the ZiPS projections that have been released so far. Jake Arrieta’s ZiPS projections have not been released, so his Depth Chart projection is based only on Steamer. Unsurprisingly, Steamer and ZiPS both project Yu Darvish to lead the pack in 2018, but what is a bit surprising is by how much the projections see him outperforming the rest of the field. If you look at the aggregated rankings, he is projected to outperform Jake Arrieta and Jose Berrios (ranked 2 and 3 above) by more than a win and to outperform every other free agent starters by at least two wins. Maybe more surprising is that the aggregated projections do not project Lance Lynn or Alex Cobb as clear improvements over Kyle Gibson as the third starter and or even anything more than a slight improvement over Adalberto Mejia as the fourth starter. Of course, the Twins will eventually need a fifth starter, and signing Jaime Garcia or even Chris Tillman could likely help avoid a replacement-level solution (see: Phil Hughes) every fifth day until top pitching prospects Stephen Gonsalves and Fernando Romero prove they’re ready for the show. Do these projections change your opinions of any of the free agent starters? Who would you have the Twins sign?- 26 comments
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It’s been another painfully quiet week for the free agent market, with Yu Darvish at the center of another series of rumors. Last week I wrote about how the top free agent options stack up by various rate stats, and it was clear by those metrics that Darvish stands well above the rest of the free agent pack – and well ahead of any of the pitchers currently slotted into the Twins rotation. But just how much might one of the “Big Four” impact the Twins’ projections for 2018? That is where we’ll turn our attention for Part II of “By The Numbers.”To start, let’s look at where the Twins currently stand by the one major projection system that’s been fully public so far. On FanGraphs you’ll find an early look at their projected standings for 2018 based on the Steamer projection system. FanGraphs writers have cautioned that their projected standings will be updated sometime in March to incorporate ZiPS, so expect these estimates to change, but Steamer currently projects the Twins to finish at 80-82, or 12 games behind Cleveland in the AL Central and 9 games behind the Yankees and Angels, who are projected about even for both wild cards. Even if an AL Central teeming with 90-loss teams gifts the Twins a few extra wins in the Wild Card race, Steamer seems to think the Twins have a ways yet to go to catch up with the Yankees and Angels after their aggressive offseasons. So how did the free agents stack up with the Twins’ candidates in 2017, and what do the major projections systems expect from them in 2018? Let’s take a look: Download attachment: FASP1.png Download attachment: FASP2.png *As mentioned above, FanGraphs hasn’t yet released their formal “Depth Chart” projections, which aggregate ZiPS and Steamer and prorate for the FanGraphs staff’s playing time projections, so I’ve calculated the Depth Chart projections manually based on FanGraphs’ methodology and the ZiPS projections that have been released so far. Jake Arrieta’s ZiPS projections have not been released, so his Depth Chart projection is based only on Steamer. Unsurprisingly, Steamer and ZiPS both project Yu Darvish to lead the pack in 2018, but what is a bit surprising is by how much the projections see him outperforming the rest of the field. If you look at the aggregated rankings, he is projected to outperform Jake Arrieta and Jose Berrios (ranked 2 and 3 above) by more than a win and to outperform every other free agent starters by at least two wins. Maybe more surprising is that the aggregated projections do not project Lance Lynn or Alex Cobb as clear improvements over Kyle Gibson as the third starter and or even anything more than a slight improvement over Adalberto Mejia as the fourth starter. Of course, the Twins will eventually need a fifth starter, and signing Jaime Garcia or even Chris Tillman could likely help avoid a replacement-level solution (see: Phil Hughes) every fifth day until top pitching prospects Stephen Gonsalves and Fernando Romero prove they’re ready for the show. Do these projections change your opinions of any of the free agent starters? Who would you have the Twins sign? Click here to view the article
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WARNE: Twins Unequivocally Did the Right Thing at the Trade Deadline
Brandon Warne posted a blog entry in BW on the Beat
It’s not often that I allow someone in my mentions to get me so wound up that I devote an entire, stand-alone article to a single person, but here we are. The tweet in question — feel free to click and read the mind-bending thread in all its glory — appears as follows: http://zonecoverage.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/Capture-1.jpg NOTE: This person has since blocked me for reasons that don’t entirely make sense. He has also deleted the tweets, so I have saved this screenshot to remember his weird rant, which also included alluding to the Twins not going after Shohei Otani because of how poorly ByungHo Park and Tsuyoshi Nishioka panned out. Bad takes all around! It’s not often that baseball provides irrefutable evidence in a discussion. Nobody can rationally debate that the Houston Astros won the World Series or who won the Gold Glove awards which were handed out on Tuesday night. Those are set in stone. But in debates, there can always be varying levels of certainty, different angles being pursued by those involved and a number of other situations at play. In this case, the general debate is that the Twins front office messed up at the trade deadline. And quite frankly, there is no evidence to back that up. None. The back story to the debate centers around the Twins having the second-most available in their July 2 pool to sign international free agents. This looms especially large this offseason with Japanese phenom Shohei Otani petitioning to come over. Part of the reason the Twins have that much money is that they received some back from the Washington Nationals in the Brandon Kintzler trade. This is where that debate begins, as the party in question says the Twins “had no business trading legitimate major-league pitching at the deadline last year.” The simplest — and possibly laziest — form of logical fallacy is revisionism. In other words, looking at a situation and how it plays out, then saying “Well I wouldn’t have done THAT” without offering anything in the way of a solution. Even that isn’t in Mr. Papas’ favor. Why? Please click through to Zone Coverage here to read this story in its entirety.- 13 comments
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There are no shortcuts to winning. Trust the Process! The Minnesota Twins are near the end of a season where they are contending for the playoffs. When the Trade Deadline passed on July 31st, Chief Baseball Officer Derek Falvey and General Manager Thad Levine had to make a big decision. Buy or Sell? Were the Minnesota Twins ready to compete for a playoff spot? The answer to that question would lead to another question. If they thought there were ready, what do they trade for to help their team make the playoffs? If they thought they weren’t ready, who do they trade away to get help for the future? After the All-Star Break, the Minnesota Twins, with a record of 45-44, had some playoff caliber teams in the Houston Astros, the New York Yankees and the Los Angeles Dodgers on their schedule. Two of those teams already had 60 or more wins on the season, the Astros (60-29) & the Dodgers (61-29,) so there was a measuring stick to help Mr. Falvey & Mr. Levine make a decision for what to do at the trade deadline. Compete with the best teams in the league and get some help for the stretch run or get overmatched and see some veterans shipped out hurting your chances at the playoffs this season? Alternating wins and losses, including losing a series at home to the Detroit Tigers, showed they might need some help so a trade was completed for Atlanta Braves LHP Jaime (Hy-me) Garcia. They would proceed to go 1-5 getting swept by the Dodgers and lose 2 of 3 in Oakland with the only win coming from their newly acquired lefty pitcher. They were 3 games under .500 at 50-53, 6.5 games out of 1st place in the American League Central and 4.5 games out of a Wild Card spot with 5 teams ahead of them on the day before the deadline. That made Derek Falvey and Thad Levine’s decision pretty simple, trade away some assets and get what you can. This team didn’t look ready to make that push for the postseason. Just acquired LHP Jaime Garcia was traded to the New York Yankees and All-Star closer RHP Brandon Kintzler was traded to the Washington Nationals. Those trades didn’t make the players happy and they would respond by having their best month of the season with a bunch of guys leading the way, veterans Joe Mauer, Brian Dozier, Eduardo Escobar, Ervin Santana & Bartolo Colon and young core players Eddie Rosario, Byron Buxton, Jorge Polanco, & Jose Berrios. A 26-16 record since the July 31st Trade Deadline has put the Minnesota Twins right back into the thick of the playoff race, currently holding the 2nd wild card with the Los Angeles Angels 2 games back, the Seattle Mariners 3.5 games back, the Texas Rangers and Kansas City Royals 4 games back, and the Baltimore Orioles only 4.5 games back. Being in the hunt for the playoffs is allowing this team to get the experience you’d want a young rebuilding team to get in order to take that next step. Derek Falvey & Thad Levine had a tough decision to make with their team only 1 game over .500. They decided to send a message thinking their team deserved some help so they acquired a veteran starting pitcher in RHP Jaime Garcia to see if it could help them get over the hump. Even before that, they signed RHP Bartolo Colon to a minor-league contract after he was released by the Atlanta Braves in the hopes he could help a young starting rotation with his veteran leadership and his pitching savvy. They may have sent another message by only trading players facing free agency and keeping the established core veterans like Ervin Santana & Brian Dozier. They were still giving their team a chance to compete: “We weren’t looking to tear this thing apart,” Falvey said. “Our goal was to find ways to keep an eye on the future at that moment in time, but no one waved a white flag. No one said, ‘This team can’t compete.’ We just knew that, by and large, we were going to give ourselves a chance to get to the playoffs with the group that we had here.” With all of these moves, including the moves they didn’t make, Derek Falvey, Thad Levine, and the Minnesota Twins are trusting the process of building a winning team, a winning organization and winning players. “Trust The Process” The phrase, Trust the Process, is heard a lot in professional sports but it really is a part of everything we do in life. It’s all around us, in our education, in our jobs, in our relationships, and pretty much in everything we see and hear every day. It is probably heard from leaders most often because they’ve gone through the process and they know there is no other way to achieve success. They’ve done it and have seen people, groups, and organizations try taking shortcuts to speed up the process in one way or another and fail. We’ll get into that process in the next article…. Thanks for reading our TwinsTakes! We’d love to hear your TwinsTakes on this season’s Minnesota Twins. Will they make the playoffs? Do they have the core pieces to be a perennial playoff team and championship contender? Please comment below or reply to this article’s post on Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, or Google+! After all, it is... Our 'Takes, Your 'Takes, TwinsTakes.com
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The dust has settled on the trade deadline and Twins fans might be left with a feeling of wanting more. Minnesota made multiple trades as the deadline approached but no major moves to shake-up the organization. Fans were left wondering, Why wasn't the front office more active? For Twins fans, the last week and a half has been a disaster. With the team looking like they were in contention, the front office dealt for Jaime Garcia. He would be in another organization less than a week later as the Twins have found themselves falling out of contention. Garcia is gone and the Twins are left wondering what happened in their recent road trip. With the Twins falling to the wayside, many fans pivoted into the mindset of being sellers. Most of the comments I have seen on social media revolve around what could the Twins get for some of their top trade pieces. Unfortunately, the value for Minnesota's top pieces isn't as high as some fans would like it to be.Brandon Kintzler In the midst of his first all-star season, Brandon Kintzler seemed like a logical trade candidate. His value was high (maybe the highest it has ever been) and he would become a free agent at season's end. Reports had multiple teams being interested in his services but the Twins were "remaining patient" as the likes of Brad Hand and Zach Britton were yet to be dealt. As the deadline came and passed, the Twins pulled the trigger and sent Kintzler to Washington for left-handed pitching prospect Tyler Watson, the Nationals' 17th best prospect according to MLB.com. Teams can see through the cobwebs. Kintzler isn't the same type of closer as last year's big trade pieces, Aroldis Chapman and Andrew Miller. Kintzler doesn't have the same type of relief pitching resume but he has been very efficient since taking over the as the Twins closer last season. He wasn't going to bring back a top tier prospect but the Twins did well to get something for a rental piece. Ervin Santana Santana's first half of 2017 made it seem like he would be a strong trade candidate if the Twins became sellers. Through his first 13 starts, he posted a 2.20 ERA while holding opponents to a .154 batting average. During that stretch, he had three complete games and other teams were still looking for their first complete game. His last eight starts have seen him come back down to earth. In them he has a 5.63 ERA while opponents are hitting .315/.366/.579. One positive surrounding Santana is the fact that he isn't a rental player. He is under contract through 2018 for $13.5 million with a $14 million team option for 2019. During the final year of the contract, Santana would be in his age-36 season so he isn't exactly in the prime of his career. However, it did seem conceivable for him to be a difference-making piece for a team looking for rotation depth. Brian Dozier Dozier seemed destined for a trade last off-season as the new regime was set to make their mark on the organization. The Dodgers seemed like the most likely landing spot but the deal never got done. Most reports had Los Angeles offering Jose De Leon, one of the club's best pitching prospects, for Dozier. Minnesota didn't budge as they wanted more than one prospect for Dozier and the deal fell through. Eventually, De Leon was dealt to the Rays for second baseman Logan Forsythe. While Dozier's 2016 campaign was one for the record books, 2017 has been average. His batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage are all back down to his career averages. He's on pace to hit over 22 home runs for the fourth consecutive season but he would need to go on quite the tear to get anywhere near his 42 home runs from a year ago. I've also been critical of his defense in the past and those numbers haven't made major improvements this season. While Twins fans waited patiently for the club to sell, the real truth might be that the club's pieces weren't as valuable as fans had hoped. The Twins will be closer to contending during the 2018 campaign so the front office's real test might come this off-season as the club builds for the next handful of seasons. What are your thoughts on the Twins key trade pieces? Should the team have tried to sell more? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. Click here to view the article
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Brandon Kintzler In the midst of his first all-star season, Brandon Kintzler seemed like a logical trade candidate. His value was high (maybe the highest it has ever been) and he would become a free agent at season's end. Reports had multiple teams being interested in his services but the Twins were "remaining patient" as the likes of Brad Hand and Zach Britton were yet to be dealt. As the deadline came and passed, the Twins pulled the trigger and sent Kintzler to Washington for left-handed pitching prospect Tyler Watson, the Nationals' 17th best prospect according to MLB.com. Teams can see through the cobwebs. Kintzler isn't the same type of closer as last year's big trade pieces, Aroldis Chapman and Andrew Miller. Kintzler doesn't have the same type of relief pitching resume but he has been very efficient since taking over the as the Twins closer last season. He wasn't going to bring back a top tier prospect but the Twins did well to get something for a rental piece. Ervin Santana Santana's first half of 2017 made it seem like he would be a strong trade candidate if the Twins became sellers. Through his first 13 starts, he posted a 2.20 ERA while holding opponents to a .154 batting average. During that stretch, he had three complete games and other teams were still looking for their first complete game. His last eight starts have seen him come back down to earth. In them he has a 5.63 ERA while opponents are hitting .315/.366/.579. One positive surrounding Santana is the fact that he isn't a rental player. He is under contract through 2018 for $13.5 million with a $14 million team option for 2019. During the final year of the contract, Santana would be in his age-36 season so he isn't exactly in the prime of his career. However, it did seem conceivable for him to be a difference-making piece for a team looking for rotation depth. Brian Dozier Dozier seemed destined for a trade last off-season as the new regime was set to make their mark on the organization. The Dodgers seemed like the most likely landing spot but the deal never got done. Most reports had Los Angeles offering Jose De Leon, one of the club's best pitching prospects, for Dozier. Minnesota didn't budge as they wanted more than one prospect for Dozier and the deal fell through. Eventually, De Leon was dealt to the Rays for second baseman Logan Forsythe. While Dozier's 2016 campaign was one for the record books, 2017 has been average. His batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage are all back down to his career averages. He's on pace to hit over 22 home runs for the fourth consecutive season but he would need to go on quite the tear to get anywhere near his 42 home runs from a year ago. I've also been critical of his defense in the past and those numbers haven't made major improvements this season. While Twins fans waited patiently for the club to sell, the real truth might be that the club's pieces weren't as valuable as fans had hoped. The Twins will be closer to contending during the 2018 campaign so the front office's real test might come this off-season as the club builds for the next handful of seasons. What are your thoughts on the Twins key trade pieces? Should the team have tried to sell more? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.
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It was nice to know you, Jaime Garcia. While reports following the Twins lost in Oakland late last night indicated that the Twins and Yankees were nearing a deal for Garcia, news has come out from various national writers that a deal has been agreed upon. The Twins will trade left-handed start Jaime Garcia to the New York Yankees for RHP Zack Littell and LHSP Dietrich Enns. The Twins will also send cash to the Yankees. No, that is not a misprint.Garcia was traded to the Twins on Monday in exchange for Elizabethton RHP Huascar Ynoa. At the time, the Twins were in the thick of contention in the AL Central, and in the wild card. But things have gone sour for the Twins since. They are now well out of contention in both. Garcia made just one start for the Twins. On Friday night, he gave up three runs in 6.2 innings to earn a win, the one game the Twins have won since they acquired him. Depending on the site, Littell was ranked around #20 in Yankees prospect lists. The right-hander has a four-pitch mix with a fastball in the low 90s. This season between High-A Tampa and AA Trenton, he is 14-1 with a 1.87 ERA. He's been even better in AA, posting 10.6 strikeouts per nine innings compared to just 7.2 per nine in High-A. 26-year-old Deitrich Enns is on the Yankees 40-man roster. With AAA Sranton-Wilkes Barre, he has a 2.29 ERA and 37 strikeouts in 39.1 innings in seven starts this year. Enns will report to Rochester. Littell will head to Chattanooga. And so it begins... Click here to view the article
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Garcia was traded to the Twins on Monday in exchange for Elizabethton RHP Huascar Ynoa. At the time, the Twins were in the thick of contention in the AL Central, and in the wild card. But things have gone sour for the Twins since. They are now well out of contention in both. Garcia made just one start for the Twins. On Friday night, he gave up three runs in 6.2 innings to earn a win, the one game the Twins have won since they acquired him. Depending on the site, Littell was ranked around #20 in Yankees prospect lists. The right-hander has a four-pitch mix with a fastball in the low 90s. This season between High-A Tampa and AA Trenton, he is 14-1 with a 1.87 ERA. He's been even better in AA, posting 10.6 strikeouts per nine innings compared to just 7.2 per nine in High-A. 26-year-old Deitrich Enns is on the Yankees 40-man roster. With AAA Sranton-Wilkes Barre, he has a 2.29 ERA and 37 strikeouts in 39.1 innings in seven starts this year. Enns will report to Rochester. Littell will head to Chattanooga. And so it begins...
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On Saturday, we learned that the Twins front office was definitely working as sellers at this point. Another late-inning tough loss for the Twins, this one at the hands of the A's, and it's all but certain that is the appropriate decision. In this article, we will discuss some of the rumors that have been out there about the Twins. It will be updated throughout the day as we hear more. Consider this your place to discuss rumors. Obviously any actual trades will have their own article within moments of the deal's completion.7:20 p.m. - Ken Rosenthal says that the Diamondbacks are not looking to add an infielder as they have plenty of depth. Littell has split this season between High-A Tampa and AA Trenton. Combined, he is 14-1 with a 1.87 ERA. He's also 5-0 with a 2.05 ERA in seven starts in AA. Seems intriguing at least. The 21-year-old was the Mariners 11th round pick in 2013 out of high school in North Carolina and traded to the Yankees in a minor deal in 2016. And... just because it's fun... his middle name is Stuart... It appears that Jaime Garcia will likely be the guy we remember for making one start with the Twins, and it was a Quality Start and a Win. Garcia is a free agent at the end of the season. Likewise, Brandon Kintzler is also, and there are several teams showing interest in his services. Of course, when the Twins had a save situation on Saturday night, Kintzler was left in the bullpen. He has pitched a lot of late, including 26 pitches a night earlier. So that was the reasoning given for him not coming into the game, and it is certainly real. But, if the Twins are looking to deal him, not pitching him is likely the best strategy. The Twins will not face Sonny Gray on Sunday in the series finale with the A's. The team says that he's being pushed back to Monday, but we all know it is because he's going to be traded by then. Along with Kintzler and Garcia, it's possible that teams will be interested in Matt Belisle as well since he is a free agent at season's end too. Ervin Santana rumors slowed down some on Saturday. Houston still seems like the one team that might make some sense. It feels to me like Santana is the fall back plan for the teams to go after when they realize that they won't get one of the big fish (like Gray, Darvish). And, there has been little talk of Brian Dozier at this point. That, of course, could change at any point. (Again, this article will be updated as any rumors about the Twins come out. Please use the comments to discuss said rumors and your thoughts on them. If nothing else, the trade deadline should be very interesting for Twins fans.) Click here to view the article
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7:20 p.m. - Ken Rosenthal says that the Diamondbacks are not looking to add an infielder as they have plenty of depth. ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 4:55 p.m. - Arizona Diamondbacks second baseman Chris Owings fractured a finger today. He's out for the year. The Diamondbacks may have a need at second base. https://twitter.com/ScottMillerBbl/status/891777882682302464 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1:05 p.m. - Jon Morosi reports that the Twins and Mariners have had at least some level of discussions regarding Ervin Santana. https://twitter.com/jonmorosi/status/891718371418484736 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ 11:40 a.m. - Twins GM Thad Levine was on MLB Radio on Sunday morning, talking about where the Twins are in terms of the trade deadline. Said that Cleveland and Kansas City "did us a favor" by going on their winning streaks when they did. Also, "we've probably had our highest volume of calls on Kintzler and some of our other relievers." Also mentions that he hopes the Twins and Kintzler have good enough of a relationship to extend him. So, you never know exactly what to believe and what is posturing, etc. In reality, both things are likely true. ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Update (8:30 a.m.) Early Sunday morning, the Twins and Yankees announced that Jaime Garcia (along with Cash) has been traded to New York in exchange for RHP Zack Littell and LHP Deitrich Enns. (For more discussion, click here) https://twitter.com/morsecode/status/891653191158444033 The Twins also announced that lefty Craig Breslow has been released. I'm sure today will be busy, fully of Twins-related rumors as we anticipate Monday afternoon's trade deadline. https://twitter.com/Feinsand/status/891662940738289664 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- On Friday, I posted my thoughts on which Twins players could be traded, and a percent-likelihood that they were dealt. Earlier on Saturday, it was youngster Chris Cotillo who first let us know that the Twins were having conversations with buyers about some of their veterans. https://twitter.com/ChrisCotillo/status/891426876488593411 The above tweet also indicates that Derek Falvey and Thad Levine are not going to wait until the deadline to start dealing. In fact, shortly after the Twins loss in Oakland, Jeff Passan said that the Twins may be nearing a deal already. https://twitter.com/JeffPassan/status/891532696412983296 Now, I don't know if that is another Twins trade involving Jaime Garcia that is "close" or not, but the wording certainly indicates that it should happen relatively quickly, probably even on Sunday. Passan followed up by saying that if the Yankees acquire Garcia, it won't stop them from pursuing the A's Sonny Gray. According to Jon Morosi, the Twins might be interested in RHP Zack Littell. MLB.com has him ranked as the Yankees #22 prospect. https://twitter.com/jonmorosi/status/891536180663025664 Littell has split this season between High-A Tampa and AA Trenton. Combined, he is 14-1 with a 1.87 ERA. He's also 5-0 with a 2.05 ERA in seven starts in AA. Seems intriguing at least. The 21-year-old was the Mariners 11th round pick in 2013 out of high school in North Carolina and traded to the Yankees in a minor deal in 2016. And... just because it's fun... his middle name is Stuart... It appears that Jaime Garcia will likely be the guy we remember for making one start with the Twins, and it was a Quality Start and a Win. Garcia is a free agent at the end of the season. Likewise, Brandon Kintzler is also, and there are several teams showing interest in his services. Of course, when the Twins had a save situation on Saturday night, Kintzler was left in the bullpen. He has pitched a lot of late, including 26 pitches a night earlier. So that was the reasoning given for him not coming into the game, and it is certainly real. But, if the Twins are looking to deal him, not pitching him is likely the best strategy. The Twins will not face Sonny Gray on Sunday in the series finale with the A's. The team says that he's being pushed back to Monday, but we all know it is because he's going to be traded by then. Along with Kintzler and Garcia, it's possible that teams will be interested in Matt Belisle as well since he is a free agent at season's end too. Ervin Santana rumors slowed down some on Saturday. Houston still seems like the one team that might make some sense. It feels to me like Santana is the fall back plan for the teams to go after when they realize that they won't get one of the big fish (like Gray, Darvish). And, there has been little talk of Brian Dozier at this point. That, of course, could change at any point. (Again, this article will be updated as any rumors about the Twins come out. Please use the comments to discuss said rumors and your thoughts on them. If nothing else, the trade deadline should be very interesting for Twins fans.)
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I can't think of a better way to tee up Trade Deadline day! Aaron and John talk about the short but sweet Jaime Garcia era, the odds of Brandon Kintzler, Ervin Santana, and Brian Dozier also being on the move, what to expect from prospects Zack Littell and Dietrich Enns, the collapse of Taylor Rogers, Eddie Rosario's future role, building a statue of Zack Granite, MLB's latest lawsuit with Bye, Goff, and Rhode, and trading John Ryan Murphy for Gabriel Moya. You can listen by downloading us from iTunes, Stitcher or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. Or just click this link.http://traffic.libsy...3?dest-id=74590 Click here to view the article
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Morosi says the Twins could possibly shop the recently acquired Jaime Garcia, who is scheduled to start Friday in Oakland, as well as veteran starter Ervin Santana. Garcia is a free agent at the end of the season and is owed an estimated $4.5 million on the remainder of the year. The Twins surrendered very little in Huescar Ynoa in order to get Garcia from the Braves so the team would likely have to assume some of his salary if they want to gain a superior prospect. Meanwhile, the 34-year-old Santana is owed another $13.5 million for 2018 and has a $14 million option for 2019 (or a $1 million buyout). Given the fact that he has pitched extremely consistent in addition to leading baseball in complete games and shutouts, Santana’s return would be significantly higher. Furthermore, if the Twins are willing to part ways with Santana and Garcia, it almost certainly means All Star closer Brandon Kintzler, who is a free agent at the season’s end, will also be on the trading block as well. The Twins have a three-game series starting tomorrow in Oakland and the future whereabouts of those pitchers sounds like it is contingent on the performance. Stay tuned.
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That’s what Jon Morosi’s sources have told him. According to the MLB Network reporter, the Minnesota Twins are contemplating unloading several key players if the current skid continues up until Monday’s trade deadline.Morosi says the Twins could possibly shop the recently acquired Jaime Garcia, who is scheduled to start Friday in Oakland, as well as veteran starter Ervin Santana. Garcia is a free agent at the end of the season and is owed an estimated $4.5 million on the remainder of the year. The Twins surrendered very little in Huescar Ynoa in order to get Garcia from the Braves so the team would likely have to assume some of his salary if they want to gain a superior prospect. Meanwhile, the 34-year-old Santana is owed another $13.5 million for 2018 and has a $14 million option for 2019 (or a $1 million buyout). Given the fact that he has pitched extremely consistent in addition to leading baseball in complete games and shutouts, Santana’s return would be significantly higher. Furthermore, if the Twins are willing to part ways with Santana and Garcia, it almost certainly means All Star closer Brandon Kintzler, who is a free agent at the season’s end, will also be on the trading block as well. The Twins have a three-game series starting tomorrow in Oakland and the future whereabouts of those pitchers sounds like it is contingent on the performance. Stay tuned. Click here to view the article
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The Twins acquired lefty Jaime Garcia from the Braves on Monday. That night, the Twins lost their second straight game. They lost the next two in Los Angeles as well. Garcia finally made his Twins debut on Friday night in Oakland. He had some shaky moments, but he showed an ability to get big outs, and ended his night with a quality start. More important to the Twins, he ended their losing streak at four games.In Jaime Garcia’s first inning, he struck out two in a 1-2-3 innings. In the second, things didn’t go as smoothly. He walked the first two batters, and then he gave up a line drive single to load the bases. That’s when he showed what he is capable of. He started by striking out Ryan Lavarnway. Next, veteran Matt Joyce grounded into a double play to end the inning, end the threat. Same thing in the third inning, Adam Rosales led off with a double. Again, Garcia was up to the challenge. He struck out the next two batters before getting the third out on a pop out. The Twins bats showed up in the top of the fourth inning, though some with the help of the A’s defense. Jason Castro had an RBI double. It was followed by a Brian Dozier RBI single to make it 3-0. Castro scored from third on a very wild pitch. With two outs, Miguel Sano grounded toward shortstop. Marcus Semien fielded but airmailed the throw. The first baseman Ryan Healy had to leap and Sano reached the bag safely. Meanwhile, Dozier rounded third and kept going. Healy threw a strike home, but Lavarnway just dropped the ball. Dozier was out easily if the ball was caught. Those extra, bonus runs are always appreciated. They are appreciated because Garcia wasn’t able to work out of a mess in the fourth, however, A lead off double was followed by a walk. Garcia did get a strikeout, but then Jason Castro had a bad passed ball, allowing the runners to move up. Lavarnway came up again, and this time he doubled in two runs. Castro helped get one of the runs back in the fifth inning when he added another RBI double to give the Twins their sixth run. After that, it was Garcia and the Twins bullpen. Garcia gave up a run on three hits in the bottom of the fifth, but he was again able to get a big double play ball to end that inning. But in the sixth frame, he got a fly out followed by two strikeouts. Because he was still at just 90 pitches, he went out to start the seventh inning too. He got the first two outs of the inning, but after a single, Matt Belisle came on and got the final out. Belisle added another scoreless inning in the eighth. His streak of games without allowing an earned run is now at 12 games, and he’s allowed an earned run in just one of his last 17 appearances. Brandon Kintzler came on to protect a 6-3 lead in the ninth inning. It took some work. He threw a lot of pitches, but he was able to get out of it without allowing a run to record his 28th save. Jaime Garcia is now 1-0 as an American League pitcher. More important, that Twins losing streak stops at four games. It was the Twins 50th win of the year, and it came much, much earlier in the season than it did a year ago. Click here to view the article
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In Jaime Garcia’s first inning, he struck out two in a 1-2-3 innings. In the second, things didn’t go as smoothly. He walked the first two batters, and then he gave up a line drive single to load the bases. That’s when he showed what he is capable of. He started by striking out Ryan Lavarnway. Next, veteran Matt Joyce grounded into a double play to end the inning, end the threat. Same thing in the third inning, Adam Rosales led off with a double. Again, Garcia was up to the challenge. He struck out the next two batters before getting the third out on a pop out. The Twins bats showed up in the top of the fourth inning, though some with the help of the A’s defense. Jason Castro had an RBI double. It was followed by a Brian Dozier RBI single to make it 3-0. Castro scored from third on a very wild pitch. With two outs, Miguel Sano grounded toward shortstop. Marcus Semien fielded but airmailed the throw. The first baseman Ryan Healy had to leap and Sano reached the bag safely. Meanwhile, Dozier rounded third and kept going. Healy threw a strike home, but Lavarnway just dropped the ball. Dozier was out easily if the ball was caught. Those extra, bonus runs are always appreciated. They are appreciated because Garcia wasn’t able to work out of a mess in the fourth, however, A lead off double was followed by a walk. Garcia did get a strikeout, but then Jason Castro had a bad passed ball, allowing the runners to move up. Lavarnway came up again, and this time he doubled in two runs. Castro helped get one of the runs back in the fifth inning when he added another RBI double to give the Twins their sixth run. After that, it was Garcia and the Twins bullpen. Garcia gave up a run on three hits in the bottom of the fifth, but he was again able to get a big double play ball to end that inning. But in the sixth frame, he got a fly out followed by two strikeouts. Because he was still at just 90 pitches, he went out to start the seventh inning too. He got the first two outs of the inning, but after a single, Matt Belisle came on and got the final out. Belisle added another scoreless inning in the eighth. His streak of games without allowing an earned run is now at 12 games, and he’s allowed an earned run in just one of his last 17 appearances. Brandon Kintzler came on to protect a 6-3 lead in the ninth inning. It took some work. He threw a lot of pitches, but he was able to get out of it without allowing a run to record his 28th save. Jaime Garcia is now 1-0 as an American League pitcher. More important, that Twins losing streak stops at four games. It was the Twins 50th win of the year, and it came much, much earlier in the season than it did a year ago. https://twitter.com/AaronGleeman/status/891167995313115137 Win Expectancy (via fangraphs) Top Five Twins (by Win Expectancy) Jason Castro - (.194) - 2-4, 2 RBI doubles Jaime Garcia - (.149) - 6.2 IP, 3 ER. Ehire Adrianza - (.118) - 2-5 Matt Belisle - (.068) - 1.1 IP, 2 K Robbie Grossman - (.067) - 1-3, 2 BB Obviously when you knock in runs twice when the game is still quite close, you’ve had a big impact on the game and on win expectancy. The Twins 7, 8 and 9 hitters (Granite, Adrianza and Castro) each had two hits in the game. Jaime Garcia got into and fought out of several tough situations. Jason Castro discussed with Audra Martin following the game what it meant to contribute with his bat, as well as what he saw from Jaime Garcia. https://twitter.com/fsnorth/status/891170852334485504 AL Central Cleveland and Kansas City remain hot. The Royals beat the Red Sox at Fenway Park thanks to a three-run homer from Mike Moustakus in the top of the nint to give them a 4-2 lead. It was Kansas City’s ninth straight win. Cleveland won big over the White Sox, their eighth straight win. Detroit fell to Brad Peacock and the Houston Astros. Cleveland 56-45 .554 --- Kansas City 54-47 .535 2.0 TWINS 50-51 .495 6.0 Detroit 45-56 .446 11.0 Chicago 39-61 .390 15.5 Bullpen Usage Brandon Kintzler needed a lot of pitches to get his 28th save. Matt Belisle was good again and kept his pitch count low. After a day off on Thursday, the bullpen should be pretty well-rested. Here is a look at which relievers may be available on Saturday night. What’s Next? The Twins and A’s will play the second game of a three-game series on Saturday (8:10 central time). It will be Adalberto Mejia against RHP Chris Smith. It is a matchup of two very different pitchers. Adalberto Mejia has been a pleasant surprise for the Twins this season. Sure, there were some bumps in the road, but of late, he has been as good as anyone in the Twins rotation. He got to the big leagues as a 22-year-old and it looks like he has a chance to stay in the for a long time. When Chris Smith came up on July 8 this year, he became the oldest pitcher in the well-over-a-century old A’s franchise to make a start. He came up to replace injured youngster Jharel Cotton. He pitched in 13 games out of the A’s bullpen in 2016. But just as interesting, those were his first games in the big leagues since he made three appearances for the Brewers in the 2010 season. He played for Milwaukee in 2009 and 12 games with the Red Sox in 2008 when he debuted as a 27-year-old. Now 36, he is 0-1 with a 3.32 ERA. The Twins will have to be patient and wait back. Smith was a soft-tosser when he was pitching out of the bullpen, averaging 87-88 mph with his fastball. As a starter, his average velo is down to 85 mph.He also throws a mid-70s breaking ball, and a mid-70s changeup. So what do you think? Will Jaime Garcia stick with the Twins? Did he do enough to make you want to keep him around, or make you think he increased his trade value? What were the keys to the Twins win in your opinion? Here are some final thoughts from the Manager, Paul Molitor. https://twitter.com/fsnorth/status/891175439388954624
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As I’ve done in past years when the trade deadline approached and the Twins were (more clearly) sellers, I reviewed players in the Twins organization who could be dealt for something and gave a percent-likelihood that the player gets traded. WHO IS SAFE (probably)? Before digging into which players have at least some chance of being traded, it’s probably a good idea to consider which players will not be traded, for whatever reason. While the percent-likelihood that they are dealt may not be 0.00%, it is like 0.001% or similar. Joe Mauer will not be traded. He has a no-trade clause in his contract, and he became a 10-5 guy a long time ago. Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton, Max Kepler - Young, high-ceiling hitters who are yet to reach their primes are immensely valuable. They each will make the league’s minimum at least one more year. Jose Berrios, Adalberto Mejia - See the previous list and substitute the word “pitchers” for “hitters.” Glen Perkins, Phil Hughes, Ryan O’Rourke, Trevor May - These are 60-day DL guys. While there would be teams interested in Trevor May if he was made available, it would be very unlikely the Twins would trade him when they likely have high hopes for him in 2018, and beyond. Bartolo Colon, Hector Santiago - These guys are closer to being DFAd than to being traded. TRADE CANDIDATES First and foremost, this list is intended for entertainment purposes only. Twins Daily does not recommend or encourage making wagers on trade deadline activities. These percentages are simply educated guesses designed to create discussion. Brandon Kintzler - RHP (75%) - Brought in on a minor league contract following an injury-plagued 2015 season, Kintzler began in Rochester, was called up a month later, was the team’s closer a month or so later, and in 2017, he became an All-Star. He has been remarkably reliable. However, he is at the end of his contract and will be a free agent following the season. His ability to close, or work in tough situations in the seventh or eighth inning could make him valuable to any playoff-contending team. Another All-Star who is an impending free agent at season’s end, Pat Neshek, went to the Rockies for three minor leaguers (none were Top 15 prospect types). Since Kintzler is a little younger, the Twins might be able to get slightly more return for Kintzler. Jaime Garcia - LHP (55%) - When the Twins acquired him on Monday, they were buying, just 2.5 games out of first place, and even closer in the wild card. Now the team may be a seller, and he has yet to make his first start for the organization. The Twins gave up 19-year-old Huascar Ynoa for Garcia with a willingness to eat much of Garcia’s remaining contract. The Twins could look to trade Garcia, continue paying him at least some of his remaining money ($4.5 million or so), and get a higher-ranking prospect in return. Ervin Santana - RHP (40%) - Santana may be a bit older, but he’s on a friendly contract for 2018 with an option for 2019. In other words, he’s far from a rental. A team could keep him for nearly 2 ½ years if things go well. Santana was great in April and May. He hasn’t been particularly strong in June and July, but he’s a veteran that most teams would be happy to see starting for them in the playoffs. The Rangers are in about the same situation and they’ve made Yu Darvish available, so the Twins would be wise to at least make Santana available and see what offers role in. He could be a backup plan to Darvish or Sonny Gray for the Yankees and Dodgers, while he makes a ton of sense for the Astros. Eduardo Escobar - UT (37.5%) - This name might surprise many reading, but it does make a lot of sense. Escobar is beloved in the clubhouse, but if the Twins were to offer him arbitration this coming offseason, he is likely to make $4 million or more. That’s a lot for a utility guy. Now, if he plays as much and as well as he has in 2017 next year, he’d be more than worth it. But with Dozier, Polanco and maybe Nick Gordon and/or Engelb Vielma in the picture in the middle infield, and Ehire Adrianza fully capable of being a solid utility infielder for $3 million less, dealing Escobar while he’s playing so well may make a lot of sense. They could get a similar haul to what the Giants got for Eduardo Nunez this week. Chris Gimenez - C (35%) - Gimenez clearly has a ton of respect in the game, particularly for his charisma and leadership skills. On field, he hasn’t been particularly good, but teams love adding guys like this down the stretch. The Twins wouldn’t get much, maybe even just some cash and a low level prospect, but I can see teams asking for him. It would allow Mitch Garver to be up for the final two months of the season as well. Matt Belisle - RHP (30%) - Belisle’s overall numbers do not look good because of a handful of really bad outings, but he has been really good the last two months. He’s given up just one earned run in his last 16 outings (18.2 innings). The return won’t be real high, but he can be a solid 5th or 6th bullpen option for a good team. Robbie Grossman - DH (20%) - Grossman was yet another strong minor league deal for Terry Ryan last year. Since joining the Twins, he has been a very productive hitter, primarily for his on-base skills, but he’s provided occasional pop too. He isn’t ideal to have in the outfield defensively, but there could be a team looking for a bench bat who could provide some versatility. He will be arbitration-eligible this offseason, and if he stays with the Twins, it would be an obvious choice to offer it to. Kyle Gibson - RHP (17.5%) - The right-hander was the Twins pitcher of the year in 2015, but the last two years have been a struggle for him. He had one of his best starts of the year on Saturday, and by Tuesday, he was sent to Rochester where he pitched well on Thursday night. In his second run at arbitration this offseason, Gibson could make a raise, potentially getting $4.5-5 million. The Twins likely would not pick that up, but Gibson’s got enough pedigree that there could be a team out there that thinks they know how to turn things around for the right-hander. And they may be right. For some reason, he seems like a perfect fit with the Cardinals. (One of) ByungHo Park/Kennys Vargas - DH (15%) - While teams likely won’t come to the Twins asking about these AAA (maybe AAAA) DH/1B, the Twins could go to teams looking for a bench bat, backup 1B/DH type in an attempt to drop one of them. Maybe they can find a taker. I thought Tampa made a lot of sense for Park since Logan Morrison and now Lucas Duda both bat left-handed. Eddie Rosario - OF (12.5%) - Rosario has arguably been the Twins best hitter the last six weeks, so this would be a case of trying to sell high on Rosario. The decision to make him available would likely be based on the front office’s willingness to believe that Rosario’s improved plate discipline and walk rate over the last couple of months is sustainable. Brian Dozier - 2B (10%) - There will be teams that will inquire about the availability of Dozier. Clearly the Twins were wise to not deal him straight-up for Jose Deleon. However, to this point Dozier has returned to a level at or slightly above his 2014 and 2015 numbers, as opposed to his historic performance in 2016. That’s still a valuable player, but the Twins will (and should) ask for more than teams are likely willing to offer. There are a lot of quality second basemen in baseball, and one of them, Ian Kinsler, is very likely to be traded which means there may not be a lot of teams in need of a second baseman. The Twins will happily keep him unless overwhelmed. Ryan Pressly - RHP (5%) - Teams could or should watch Pressly and see the 96-98 mph fastball, and see that sharp breaking ball, and realize that he’s got some great stuff. Pitching coaches and coordinators likely believe that they can provide said pitcher with that little piece that he’s missing to turn things around. Pressly’s got stuff to be a great late-inning reliever, and he’ll probably get there some day. The Twins would be wise to hang on to him, especially since he can be optioned still this year. No need to sell low. Taylor Rogers - LHP (2.5%) - Although I think Rogers could be part of a strong bullpen for the Twins for years ahead, I am including his name here. When I look at what the Marlins got for reliever David Phelps (who is similar, though right-handed, and older), I’d be incredibly curious what other teams might offer for a left-hander like Rogers who has been great for the Twins until the last few games. Unlikely to be dealt, but if a team is willing to give up three or four minor leaguers for him, I’d be curious. ---------------------------------------------------- It’s fun to guess what the team will do, but we still don’t know to what level the front office views this team. Sellers? Sellers only if overwhelmed? Buyers for long-term, high-talent assets? A combination of all of the above. There may be some surprises in the list above, and by Monday, there could be other surprises, maybe some minor leaguers. It will be as interesting a trade deadline as we have seen in recent years. There could be five moves, or they could do nothing, and a case could be made for both strategies. At the end of the day, each trade (made or not made) would have to be judged on its own merit. So, what do you think? Do you agree or disagree with the list above or any of the percentages? As a reminder, it’s important to remember that several of these player trades may make more sense in August rather than the July deadline.
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For the past week, Nick and I have taken turns reviewing the players that the Twins could look to acquiring in trades from the various divisions. When that series of articles began, the team was just a ½ game out of first place. As the series came to a conclusion yesterday with a look at the American League East division, the Twins found themselves nearly six games out and four games out of a wild card spot. At this point, the strategy has likely changed. Instead of being buys, the Twins are taking calls from teams to find out which players the Twins might be willing to “sell” by Monday afternoon’s trade deadline.As I’ve done in past years when the trade deadline approached and the Twins were (more clearly) sellers, I reviewed players in the Twins organization who could be dealt for something and gave a percent-likelihood that the player gets traded. WHO IS SAFE (probably)? Before digging into which players have at least some chance of being traded, it’s probably a good idea to consider which players will not be traded, for whatever reason. While the percent-likelihood that they are dealt may not be 0.00%, it is like 0.001% or similar. Joe Mauer will not be traded. He has a no-trade clause in his contract, and he became a 10-5 guy a long time ago.Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton, Max Kepler - Young, high-ceiling hitters who are yet to reach their primes are immensely valuable. They each will make the league’s minimum at least one more year.Jose Berrios, Adalberto Mejia - See the previous list and substitute the word “pitchers” for “hitters.”Glen Perkins, Phil Hughes, Ryan O’Rourke, Trevor May - These are 60-day DL guys. While there would be teams interested in Trevor May if he was made available, it would be very unlikely the Twins would trade him when they likely have high hopes for him in 2018, and beyond.Bartolo Colon, Hector Santiago - These guys are closer to being DFAd than to being traded.TRADE CANDIDATES First and foremost, this list is intended for entertainment purposes only. Twins Daily does not recommend or encourage making wagers on trade deadline activities. These percentages are simply educated guesses designed to create discussion. Brandon Kintzler - RHP (75%) - Brought in on a minor league contract following an injury-plagued 2015 season, Kintzler began in Rochester, was called up a month later, was the team’s closer a month or so later, and in 2017, he became an All-Star. He has been remarkably reliable. However, he is at the end of his contract and will be a free agent following the season. His ability to close, or work in tough situations in the seventh or eighth inning could make him valuable to any playoff-contending team. Another All-Star who is an impending free agent at season’s end, Pat Neshek, went to the Rockies for three minor leaguers (none were Top 15 prospect types). Since Kintzler is a little younger, the Twins might be able to get slightly more return for Kintzler. Jaime Garcia - LHP (55%) - When the Twins acquired him on Monday, they were buying, just 2.5 games out of first place, and even closer in the wild card. Now the team may be a seller, and he has yet to make his first start for the organization. The Twins gave up 19-year-old Huascar Ynoa for Garcia with a willingness to eat much of Garcia’s remaining contract. The Twins could look to trade Garcia, continue paying him at least some of his remaining money ($4.5 million or so), and get a higher-ranking prospect in return. Ervin Santana - RHP (40%) - Santana may be a bit older, but he’s on a friendly contract for 2018 with an option for 2019. In other words, he’s far from a rental. A team could keep him for nearly 2 ½ years if things go well. Santana was great in April and May. He hasn’t been particularly strong in June and July, but he’s a veteran that most teams would be happy to see starting for them in the playoffs. The Rangers are in about the same situation and they’ve made Yu Darvish available, so the Twins would be wise to at least make Santana available and see what offers role in. He could be a backup plan to Darvish or Sonny Gray for the Yankees and Dodgers, while he makes a ton of sense for the Astros. Eduardo Escobar - UT (37.5%) - This name might surprise many reading, but it does make a lot of sense. Escobar is beloved in the clubhouse, but if the Twins were to offer him arbitration this coming offseason, he is likely to make $4 million or more. That’s a lot for a utility guy. Now, if he plays as much and as well as he has in 2017 next year, he’d be more than worth it. But with Dozier, Polanco and maybe Nick Gordon and/or Engelb Vielma in the picture in the middle infield, and Ehire Adrianza fully capable of being a solid utility infielder for $3 million less, dealing Escobar while he’s playing so well may make a lot of sense. They could get a similar haul to what the Giants got for Eduardo Nunez this week. Chris Gimenez - C (35%) - Gimenez clearly has a ton of respect in the game, particularly for his charisma and leadership skills. On field, he hasn’t been particularly good, but teams love adding guys like this down the stretch. The Twins wouldn’t get much, maybe even just some cash and a low level prospect, but I can see teams asking for him. It would allow Mitch Garver to be up for the final two months of the season as well. Matt Belisle - RHP (30%) - Belisle’s overall numbers do not look good because of a handful of really bad outings, but he has been really good the last two months. He’s given up just one earned run in his last 16 outings (18.2 innings). The return won’t be real high, but he can be a solid 5th or 6th bullpen option for a good team. Robbie Grossman - DH (20%) - Grossman was yet another strong minor league deal for Terry Ryan last year. Since joining the Twins, he has been a very productive hitter, primarily for his on-base skills, but he’s provided occasional pop too. He isn’t ideal to have in the outfield defensively, but there could be a team looking for a bench bat who could provide some versatility. He will be arbitration-eligible this offseason, and if he stays with the Twins, it would be an obvious choice to offer it to. Kyle Gibson - RHP (17.5%) - The right-hander was the Twins pitcher of the year in 2015, but the last two years have been a struggle for him. He had one of his best starts of the year on Saturday, and by Tuesday, he was sent to Rochester where he pitched well on Thursday night. In his second run at arbitration this offseason, Gibson could make a raise, potentially getting $4.5-5 million. The Twins likely would not pick that up, but Gibson’s got enough pedigree that there could be a team out there that thinks they know how to turn things around for the right-hander. And they may be right. For some reason, he seems like a perfect fit with the Cardinals. (One of) ByungHo Park/Kennys Vargas - DH (15%) - While teams likely won’t come to the Twins asking about these AAA (maybe AAAA) DH/1B, the Twins could go to teams looking for a bench bat, backup 1B/DH type in an attempt to drop one of them. Maybe they can find a taker. I thought Tampa made a lot of sense for Park since Logan Morrison and now Lucas Duda both bat left-handed. Eddie Rosario - OF (12.5%) - Rosario has arguably been the Twins best hitter the last six weeks, so this would be a case of trying to sell high on Rosario. The decision to make him available would likely be based on the front office’s willingness to believe that Rosario’s improved plate discipline and walk rate over the last couple of months is sustainable. Brian Dozier - 2B (10%) - There will be teams that will inquire about the availability of Dozier. Clearly the Twins were wise to not deal him straight-up for Jose Deleon. However, to this point Dozier has returned to a level at or slightly above his 2014 and 2015 numbers, as opposed to his historic performance in 2016. That’s still a valuable player, but the Twins will (and should) ask for more than teams are likely willing to offer. There are a lot of quality second basemen in baseball, and one of them, Ian Kinsler, is very likely to be traded which means there may not be a lot of teams in need of a second baseman. The Twins will happily keep him unless overwhelmed. Ryan Pressly - RHP (5%) - Teams could or should watch Pressly and see the 96-98 mph fastball, and see that sharp breaking ball, and realize that he’s got some great stuff. Pitching coaches and coordinators likely believe that they can provide said pitcher with that little piece that he’s missing to turn things around. Pressly’s got stuff to be a great late-inning reliever, and he’ll probably get there some day. The Twins would be wise to hang on to him, especially since he can be optioned still this year. No need to sell low. Taylor Rogers - LHP (2.5%) - Although I think Rogers could be part of a strong bullpen for the Twins for years ahead, I am including his name here. When I look at what the Marlins got for reliever David Phelps (who is similar, though right-handed, and older), I’d be incredibly curious what other teams might offer for a left-hander like Rogers who has been great for the Twins until the last few games. Unlikely to be dealt, but if a team is willing to give up three or four minor leaguers for him, I’d be curious. ---------------------------------------------------- It’s fun to guess what the team will do, but we still don’t know to what level the front office views this team. Sellers? Sellers only if overwhelmed? Buyers for long-term, high-talent assets? A combination of all of the above. There may be some surprises in the list above, and by Monday, there could be other surprises, maybe some minor leaguers. It will be as interesting a trade deadline as we have seen in recent years. There could be five moves, or they could do nothing, and a case could be made for both strategies. At the end of the day, each trade (made or not made) would have to be judged on its own merit. So, what do you think? Do you agree or disagree with the list above or any of the percentages? As a reminder, it’s important to remember that several of these player trades may make more sense in August rather than the July deadline. Click here to view the article
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