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Yesterday’s Game Recap HOU 4, MIN 1: Defensive Lapses, Lack of Offense Lead to Another Twins Loss Today Twins vs. Astros 12:08pm CDT TV Broadcast: ESPN2 Betting Lines: MIN -149, O/U 8.0 Twins Starter: Jose Berrios, RHP 4.00 ERA In game one Rocco Baldelli went with the guy who emerged as the Twins staff ace. That was intended to be Jose Berrios, but Kenta Maeda came over from the Los Angeles Dodgers and ate his lunch in year one. This was the first season of his career in which the Puerto Rican has taken a step backwards, but as a traditional streaky starter, 12 games of runway were tough to work with. Going into his final start of the season Berrios had strung together six outings of mastery. Minnesota went 4-2 in that stretch while Berrios worked to a 4-0 record. He posted a 2.14 ERA and allowed just a .547 OPS against. Looking to ride that momentum into the Postseason, the Cincinnati Reds gave him a bit of a fit in his final outing. Lasting just five innings, he allowed four runs on five hits. The whiffs were there as he punched out seven, but dominance was nowhere to be found. There’s been a bit of everything this season from Berrios. We’ve seen increased fastball velocity, but command has not been as sharp. Stuff has looked great at times, but missing bats has been less frequent. Minnesota got the pitching in game one and the lineup failed. In game two, they’ll need a complete effort if Houston is going to be pushed to game three. Astros Starter: Jose Urquidy, RHP 2.73 ERA Still working in what amounts to his rookie season, Urquidy has some flashy numbers that aren’t back by anything overpowering. He made just five starts and worked one out shy of 30 innings this season. The ERA is a glowing 2.73, but the FIP is a less positive 4.71. He struck out just 5.2 per nine and limited damage by avoiding free passes. It was up in the air as to what Houston would do in game two, also deciding on lefty Framber Valdez. The southpaw piggybacked Greinke in game one however, leaving Urquidy to take the ball. The Twins have struggled mightily against lefties this season, but the expected potency of the group has been missing against righties too. Urquidy resides just outside of Houston’s top 10 prospects, and it’s because the sum of all parts is better than any one aspect. He’s not a hard thrower, doesn’t miss many bats, and spinning the ball isn’t his thing. He does a good job making you beat him however, and working around trouble isn’t something that phases him. Look for Houston’s Jose to make Minnesota capitalize rather than playing into any of their strengths. Twins Lineup News & Notes - Prior to game one Rocco Baldelli noted he wouldn’t be at all surprised to see Alex Kirilloff make an appearance in this series. As a bopping left-handed bat, that may come into play today against Houston. - The matchup in Cleveland turned out to be more bats than pitching as both aces gave up a run. Unfortunately for the Indians it was expected AL Cy Young winner Shane Bieber that was beat around a bit, and New York jumped ahead in that series. - As the only lower seed favored in their matchup, the White Sox held serve as expected. Moving to 15-0 against lefties this season, Chicago dispersed of rookie Jesus Luzardo. Adam Engel started the scoring and Jose Abreu kept up his hot hitting in 2020. See Also 5 Overreactions to the Twins Game 1 Loss 4 Head Scratchers for Baldelli Against Astros MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email

Here is what the Twins Daily writers had to say when asked, “Do you think the World Series Champion in an 82-game season would be legitimate?” Seth Stohs: Of course. The NHL and NBA had 82-game seasons and then they crown legitimate champions. If it's about number of games, the NFL plays 16 games and then has a champion. If the question is because it's a shortened season, well, then there have been several shortened seasons in MLB history and those champions have been considered legit. Nick Nelson: To me, the legitimacy of naming a 2020 MLB champion is more dependent on the makeup of a season than its length. I think 82 games is sufficient, especially with expanded playoffs. But how many players aren't participating? Is it fair to call this an official season of record if numerous stars opt out, especially if some teams are disproportionately affected? I don't think so. Ted Schwerzler: It’s still a season and not just a playoff. It’s different, but sanctioned and legitimate, nonetheless. Cody Pirkl: I would say yes, but I think the public perception will be based off of what team wins it. If a team like the Diamondbacks or the White Sox won, I think people would be more likely to point out the small sample size not being legit. John Bonnes: Yes. Nash Walker: Yes! 100% yes from me. As others have pointed out, overcoming the obstacles of a global pandemic and delayed season is more impressive than a regular year. It’s gonna be different, but legitimacy won’t be a question for me. Whoever takes the cake will have earned it during an unprecedented time. Cody Christie: I think it is a strange proposition because there have been previous shortened seasons, but none that have been in the 80-game range. I think fans of the winning club will view it as legitimate, especially if it isn’t the Yankees or the Dodgers. Tom Froemming: Absolutely, assuming there aren’t any major alterations to shorten the postseason format. Matt Braun: The championship was won under the rules set forward by MLB and the players association. Yes, it would be an unusual World Series victory, but the team accomplished what they did legitimately with the same parameters as every other franchise. Cooper Carlson: While I understand there will always be an asterisk for the 2020 World Series champion, I still believe the champion will be legitimate. 82 games is enough to weed out who the best teams are and provide a solid group of playoff teams. After 82 games last year, the playoff teams would have been the Yankees, Twins, Astros, Dodgers, Braves, Cubs, Rays, Rangers, Brewers and Phillies. That group truly only has one outlier (sorry Texas) so I think 82 games will work. While 82 isn’t ideal, it’s the best we’re going to get in 2020 and that’s alright. Andrew Thares: Yes, since playoff performance isn’t as heavily correlated to regular season performance as most people think, and that is already what determines the World Series champion. Matthew Lenz: Yes, same rules and chances for every team. Teams may inadvertently be better built for an 82-game season but I still think that’s a big enough sample to figure out which team is the best. What do you think? Is the winner of a World Series in an 82-game season legit? Leave a COMMENT and continue the discussion. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email

Now that you've stepped in it, you need to step out of it. This is how to apologize, the Astros Way: When possible, don’t. See above. Just don’t do it. People will quote you, ask follow-up questions, and point out inconsistencies in your story. Bummer City, Population: You! Seriously, don’t. If the media or public demands a statement, see if you can do it by whomping on various household items, like it’s Morse code or something. People might get the joke, think it’s funny, and move on to a different story. If the media or public demands that you use your words, craft an insincere, hollow public statement, admit nothing and read with the affect of a hostage holding that day's newspaper to demonstrate proof of life. If that simply isn't good enough, construct your apology in the most passive voice possible, speak in vague generalities, and change the subject. Examples: BAD: I am sorry for what I did. I am responsible for my actions and accept whatever the penalty is, even if it’s a lifetime ban. GOOD: I regret the actions of the team while I was there. I don’t want to relitigate the past and am looking forward to the new season. GREAT: At the end of the day, it is what it is. Next question. GALAXY BRAIN: I don’t think I should be held accountable. [*]Everyone is going to mad after #5 even if you mean it! You really should have paid attention to the first two guidelines above. Why didn’t you read the first two guidelines? They were put at the top for a good reason! [*]Save a bunch of kids from imminent danger. People love kids. Those kids are sometimes on buses and those buses might be driving up a perilous mountain pass in a winter storm. If that bus starts teetering along the edge of a crevasse, get out of your car and get those kids to safety before the bus plummets thousands of feet. You’re no longer Alex Bregman, Houston cheater, you’re Alex Bregman, brave hero of the Greeley (CO) Death Bus.

Back in early January Nick Nelson wrote about how the Twins may have been impacted by cheaters. We know that Houston and Boston were involved, but we aren’t sure how far that reach expanded. Thanks to Tony, who Marc Carig did a great job speaking with over at The Athletic, we now can see a pretty direct picture of the tainted Twins happenings. Here’s the thing, it actually appears like the Astros started off the year relatively clean. Maybe they were feeling out their new system, or maybe it was around the time that A.J. Hinch went on his smashing spree. Nonetheless, it was in July that Minnesota traveled to Minute Maid Park, and it was game one that produced the second most egregious results of the regular season. https://twitter.com/tlschwerz/status/1222576191036698627 During the three-game series in Texas, Twins pitchers threw 472 pitches. Of those, there were trash can bangs on 112 pitches, a whopping 24%. In game one, 48 of a total 179 (27%) pitches were tipped off. 84 total pitches thrown that day were not fastballs. That means Houston hitters knew, at a 57% clip, when they’d see a breaking pitch during that specific game. Not surprisingly, the results suggested this was the case as well. Houston scored 10 runs that day, hanging seven on starter Jose Berrios. Phil Hughes came on to get the final out in the second inning but was tagged for three runs on five hits while allowing two dingers on his own. The Astros grabbed 10 runs before Minnesota was able to record nine outs. Good day at the office to be sure, but certainly not as impressive when it’s coming in on a tee. The Twins fared better in game two and three, splitting the affairs, but 64 more Rubbermaid bangs were used over the course of that action. https://twitter.com/PJHughes45/status/1222623675796484096 Hughes had opined when the original story broke that this was a game he thought back to. Knowing it was the one time he pitched against the Astros on the road, and proceeded to get lit up, it isn’t a surprise it would stick in his memory. His tweets today immediately pointed to that performance and give significant credibility to the advantages Houston had. More bad news is that it wasn’t just the 2017 Twins who felt the impact of these exploits. Matthew Trueblood recently wrote how Marwin Gonzalez likely benefitted from Houston’s scheme. He posted a career best OPS, and despite favorable numbers on the road, Nick Nelson pointed out a wOBA that jumped off the page in the friendly confines of Fresh Squeezed Park. What’s more, the analysis provided by Mr. Adams shows that Marwin didn’t only participate, but he may have been a ringleader. No Astros player was given more hints as to what was coming than Gonzalez received. If he knew breaking pitches were coming that often, it’s pretty apparent why he would have posted career bests across the board. https://twitter.com/adams_at/status/1222506722276843527 There’s a ton to unpack here and heading over to signstealingscandal.com will allow you to dig to your hearts' content. It’s interesting that Jose Altuve was the batter at the plate the least when the garbage can rang out, but if he was wearing an electronic device as suggested then there’s probably less of a need to be involved. Former, and very short-term, New York Mets manager Carlos Beltran appears near the top of the leaderboard which isn’t a surprise given his named involvement. At the end of the day, this whole orchestration will go down as one of baseball’s greatest transgressions. A wild card-reaching Twins team was definitely exploited on the arms of Berrios and Hughes, and a current utility man will likely have question marks follow his production wherever he goes. This doesn’t change punishments or make any new ones more likely, but it definitely points to the negative impact on the Twins as being more drastic than on most other teams MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email

Looking at the totality of this situation, I simply can’t come to any conclusion other than this being the most impactful scandal in the history of Major League Baseball. The White Sox fixed a World Series game in 1919 for some additional funds. Pete Rose bet on his own team. Steroids ran rampant through the sport and everyone benefited. This though, this is different. In an effort to stay organized, let’s break it down in to small pieces: On sign stealing I have zero problem with sign stealing in general. Looking in to see what the catcher is putting down and relaying that to hitters is a worthwhile practice. Changing up looks or going with different identifiers is something battery mates can do to combat this. When electronic devices are involved however, all the nuance is removed, and things are taken to an unfair level. Unequivocally, cheating. On Mike Fiers The Houston Astros cheated, plain and simple. Fiers was part of this and he blew it up by giving quotes to The Athletic, but he was still a beneficiary. Despite taking two years to come public with it, Trevor Bauer suggests Fiers (among others) had long been looking for baseball to take a greater stance. I still don't believe that absolves Fiers from wrongdoing or makes him a hero, but noting his claims were falling on deaf ears, he took charge. There's a substantial amount of courage in that, and my stance on his decision has done nearly a 180 in less than 24 hours. On the fallout We now have watched as three different managers and a general manager all lost their jobs. Two of them definitely feel a level of hurt that won’t soon go away. A.J. Hinch and Jeff Lunhow deserved what they got but are the farthest from the transgressions. Hinch needed to escalate the issues, and Lunhow trusted a manager that didn’t do enough. Alex Cora and Carlos Beltran acted as ringleaders of sorts. The former looks the worst in all of this, while the latter sacrificed a career of integrity for fleeting moments of poor decision-making. None of the punishments are unjustified, but it’s certainly unfortunate the rest of those who were on the field with Beltran are currently in the clear. On that character clause If there’s a day to examine the silliness of enshrinement into Cooperstown, it may be when things like this happen. More than any other sport, history matters in baseball. As Jayson Stark so perfectly put it, “These things happened. They. All. Happened. All of them!” It’s why stripping the Astros' World Series title is nonsensical, and it’s why Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Rose, and Jackson all belong in The Hall. Each of these feats happened, no matter what black eye may be tied to them. The sport grows, evolves, and is better for its forward-thinking decisions, but retroactive decision-making isn’t how a museum works. We can't erase what the Astros did, but there's certainly something to be learned from it. On what’s blowing up We haven’t yet seen the end of this. Beltran “stepping down” as he did today was the next step in this ongoing saga. It appears someone with inside information is running rampant on the extent of what Houston was actually doing. Initially claiming to be a niece of Beltran, the account has now been suggested to be a burner for a player. The validity in the claims is backed by having nailed the Beltran hire, and subsequently his "firing." Alex Bregman and Jose Altuve have both been named directly, and being tied to electronic devices that line up with weird behavior following a World Series win is hardly a good look. An active player being suspended for this before all the investigating is done would not be a surprise. You can bet that the Astros will be public enemy number one in any opposing ballpark, and the production of those players will be highly scrutinized going forward. https://twitter.com/Jomboy_/status/1217886556263940098 *Since reported this is not Beltran's niece, but potentially someone with inside info. On what's next Do we really even have a clue at this point? Following the initial punishment of the Astros, Major League Baseball asked all clubs not to comment. That sort of recommendation from Rob Manfred leaves a can of worms spilling out with the lid nowhere in sight. Other teams have been implicated, more players have been named, and while it's the Astros who have currently taken the fall (as they should, and with Boston pending), the sport has a massive rain cloud hovering and the only question is when it dumps. The difficulty with investigation regarding this sort of thing is how far do you go? Where do you stop digging? I think we've now embarked into a territory where "We'll never know" is staunchly met by "It will never be enough." On who wins and loses We all do, for both. It must be that way, right? This offseason has created a brushfire that is burning brighter than the league has ever seen. Baseball has long desired to be better than the kid-brother of the NFL or NBA. We may not have gotten there in the most desirable way, but welcome to the most exciting offseason ever. On the flip side, we aren’t talking about the mega deals being signed, who is the World Series favorite, or how well positioned the Minnesota Twins may be in the AL Central. The game gets a bit cleaner when these things happen, but how long do we wonder if everything isn’t actually tainted? We won't hear Justin Verlander chime in on this one. He's often been quick to police those around the game, but despite currently being employed by the Astros, he was also there and present for that ring in 2017. Other pitchers though, and in this instance one from the Twins, can come to a very logical perspective. https://twitter.com/PJHughes45/status/1217892615166685184 In closing, I think it’s hard to back away from this and see it as anything but a monumental moment in baseball’s lifecycle. This isn’t about sign-stealing, and it isn’t even about the Houston Astros. This is about competition, winning, and what we’ll do to achieve it, even more so when money is involved. The bombs will eventually cease to be dropped, but when will the smoke clear? MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email

As I write this, the sanitation team is here fixing a little alignment I made with our trash compactor. I wish you had booked them and had gotten the correct drumbeat nailed down before this 3-game series versus the Dodgers and I could have spent more time on, like, Twitter or something. We can’t wait to have you shine in what you do best and run our clubhouse so we can do what we do best and maximize every possible advantage regardless of legality. We are definitely the coolest team ever and we live in Houston. We had a clubbie temporarily in this position, and now we want you to keep our team running smoothly while he tries out for the Chanhassen High School production of Grease. We run our own baseball franchise and work from the stadium. The manager works for me, so we are literally here all the time. We are hilarious, we tell Altuve height jokes, and when we’re not wiring him to tip pitches from the best relievers in the game we do a lot of pep talks and picker uppers. You have to be super cool with that and the massive cheating. Narcs need not apply. If you describe yourself as optimistic, soulless, resourceful, super into breaking rules and surveillance—we’re on the right track. I am a former San Francisco tech bro, first page of Reddit, and I care a lot about how loud the percussion is because cheating is the Most Important thing to me for a million reasons. So if you are the type that “just doesn’t notice” when narcs are going to rat us out, thank u next. If you are going to judge us because we exploit technology to win one at-bat in an April game against Baltimore, you’re on the wrong post. I drummed all through high school and college and am still close with all my fellow percussionists. So I have a lot of opinions, backed by research, on how to optimize the Astros’ development, and I know what it’s like to be a drummer. There is no shaming in our clubhouse. We don’t cry it out. You can’t spoil a Marisnick. We are not scout-oriented and ask you to leave that to your personal time. Are you up for being the Loudest Drummer Ever that my manager is going to remember always and forever and have adorable nicknames for you, like Drummer Guy or Cheater Dude? If you’re not looking for a lifetime bond of chicanery this is not for you. We are not fantastic drummers, but you are! Whaling on trash cans is fun for you and you’re excited to help take care of other American League teams. Also, I have celiac disease, so you can’t bring gluten into the house. If you don’t know what gluten is and you’re not resourceful enough to google it right now, just beat the hell out of a trash can to indicate a change up is coming. If you thing that’s weird, we’re definitely not the right team for you. Check in on the Padres? Have you seen any soap opera, ever? You are the attractive stableboy to our unhappy dowager, minus the judgment. Basically, you have to help run the massive cheating scandal, and love doing it. If you think it’s cute to toss garbage cans in the air, omg NOPE. If you have a temper; if your blood pressure goes up when an umpire looks at the dugout; if you think it’s funny to joke about how blatantly we’re cheating, GTFO. If you are passive-aggressive/Minnesota Nice and will dislike this wave of malfeasance, lie about it, and then hold it against us, go make a hotdish in Mike Fiers’ oven. We’re complete liars, but honesty without tact is really not our concern. CHEATING IS COOL. I have visions of us driving to Galveston together and power-walking the shore with a World Series Trophy in our stroller. In November, we’ll make fun of Joe Buck on the beach.

Let’s rewind over a half decade and land back in 2013. The Chicago Cubs and Houston Astros both employed top five farm systems but were among the worst teams in baseball. Chicago won just 66 games while Houston joined the American League and punted on the season to the tune of 51 victories. The next year both clubs remained in the top five on the farm but also showed life in the majors to the tune of 73 and 70 wins respectively. Pairing their development success with what was happening at the highest level, it became evident that it was time to go. In 2015 the Cubs opened with a $106.6 million payroll, 98% increase from the $53.6 million a year prior. Houston was not as drastic, going from $41.6 million to $64.8 million (a 56% increase). Both teams jumped up in wins, most notably Chicago parlaying their 97 into an NLCS appearance (in which they were swept by the Mets). 2016 saw the Cubs fully realize their goal with a World Series victory, the first since 1908. To get there Theo pushed payroll to $161.3 million, another 51% increase, or jump of 200% since 2014. Image Credit: Forbes To be fair, Minnesota will never operate on the same revenue stream that a national brand like the Cubs benefit from. Houston is a much more feasible example though, and while they likely have a more lucrative TV deal as well, 2019 revenues highlight the gap being relatively insignificant. The Astros also saw an 86-win successful year in 2015, only to take a step backwards (84 wins) in 2016. That is largely reflective of the cycle Minnesota endured popping up for a one-game Wild Card loss. Payroll growth in Houston has been noteworthy as well. Coming out of the 86-win campaign in 2015 the Astros operated differently than the Twins (who went from $130MM in 2018 to $114MM in 2019) by increasing payroll to $75.4 million, a slight 16% increase. They finished third in the division, but the dam was clearly ready to break. Still with a top farm system, and so much big-league talent, Houston went gangbusters spending $132.5 million in 2017, a 76% increase that culminated in a World Series. Despite being an uncapped sport teams all have a spending threshold. Chicago suggests they’re near theirs and have begun to scale back. The additional funs provided them a window of five straight winning seasons, 90 wins in all but one of them, and the ultimate goal. Houston is in the midst of a stretch where they’ve won three straight division titles, 100 games in three straight seasons, and have gone to the World Series in two of the past three years. Infrastructure and development in baseball is about creating a backbone capable of sustaining excellence at the highest level. Whether prospects contribute to maturing on the biggest stage, or being parlayed into veteran talent, the goal is not a constant state of hording. Minnesota’s window is now fully open, paired with ideal opportunity around them, and the financial flexibility to make waves. You could, and I have, made the argument that significant spending would have provided marginal gains in recent seasons. That is no longer on the table, and the blueprint has already been draw up for these Twins. 2020 isn’t about dabbling at $130 million. This franchise now needs to show up at the checkout counter and make use of what it has built these past few years. Please share your thoughts in the comments below. Not registered? Click here to create an account. To stay up to date, follow Twins Daily on Twitter and Facebook. More from Twins Daily 2020 Offseason Handbook Now Available for Download "Robot Umpires" Coming to Some Affiliated Parks Next Season Eyeing This Year's Most Intriguing Free Agent

Avoid the Wild Card Game One of the most important steps in having a sustained playoff run is avoiding playing in a coin flip game like each league’s wild-card game. Minnesota fans are well aware of the dangers of this game after seeing the Twins fall to the Yankees back in 2017. New York went on to the ALCS that year and there are some concerns with surviving this style of game. In that 2017 AL wild card game, Minnesota started Ervin Santana and then was forced to turn to Jose Berrios as a reliever. If the club had survived, they would have been put in an interesting spot for picking a starter of in Game 1 of the ALDS. Pitching staffs can be taxed in this type of game and there is too much randomness in a win-or-go-home atmosphere. The Twins need to make sure they take care of business and win the AL Central. Houston Poses a Problem If Minnesota is able win the AL Central, the club will qualify for the ALDS for the first time since 2010. Entering play on Wednesday, New York and Houston are separated by less than a game. Minnesota sits four games back so it seems unlikely they could catch either of the front-runners for the league’s top record. This means a first-round series on the road versus one of the league’s top teams. There are a couple ways to think about a Houston match-up. Teams are going to have to go through Houston at some point in the playoffs and it might be better seeing their strong starters in a shorter series. Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole, and Zack Greinke would get fewer starts over five games than in seven games. This could allow the Twins to steal a game or two and end up with a series victory. New York would be the better match-up, but it would be better to face Houston in a shorter series. If a team must take out Houston, do it in the ALDS. Big Apple Battle Minnesota fans might have a phobia of facing off against the Yankees because of past playoff experience. When the Yankees came to Minneapolis earlier this year, it resulted in an epic back-and-forth series. New York’s pitching staff has flaws, but their offense is certainly on a par with Minnesota’s record-breaking line-up. It seems most likely for Houston or New York to take care of any of the wild card teams, but anything can happen in a five-game series. Tampa Bay, Cleveland, and Oakland are all in the running for the two AL wild card spots. Any of these three teams would be a better match-up than facing Houston or New York in a seven-game series, but it would take a team coming in hot to take down one of the league’s top foes. If Minnesota takes care of Houston in the ALDS, it would be fitting for the club to face-off against the Yankees for the right to represent the AL in the World Series. It would be similar to the Red Sox exorcising their demons against the Yankees on the way to their 2004 title. If Minnesota must beat New York at some point, so why not do it on the biggest possible stage? What do you feel is the ideal path for the Twins to make it through the gauntlet of the AL playoffs? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

Two avenues exist when it comes to acquiring external talent in baseball. After you’ve developed your own players, bringing in reinforcements requires some sort of capital. Organizations can decide if that’s done through a cash transaction on the free agent market, or if it makes more sense to utilize a farm system and explore a swap including prospect capital. The Twins have now been presented with opportunities to go down both paths in the past calendar year and have taken neither thus far. That decision looms but isn’t yet one they should be criticized for not making. Prior to 2018 theTwins' front office offered a $100 million contract to former Texas Rangers ace Yu Darvish. It went terribly in year one with the Chicago Cubs for the 31-year-old, and aside from the current stretch of strength, year two has followed a similar path. Bullet dodged or otherwise, Darvish was representative of a free agent ace that Minnesota pursued. The second path came in the form of a controllable starter. The ask for Marcus Stroman was both top Twins prospects, while the Mets wanted Byron Buxton to headline a return for Thor. Both of those proposals were intelligently declined, but the conversations are indicative of the timing trending right. Looking at the 2019 season so far, it’s fair to suggest that the Twins push all their chips forward. That notion would be shortsighted however and effectively negate much of the strong foundation built by Derek Falvey and Thad Levine. The AL Central is a poor division, and Minnesota is on a collision course with 100 wins, but opportunity doesn’t seem to be tied solely to the current season. Postseason baseball is about good teams getting hot and spurning a consistent seasons-long run for the sake of an impulse buy doesn’t seem a smart move. Blueprints designed by good teams like the Chicago Cubs and Houston Astros are often referenced when hoping for that next World Series trophy. It’s in truly understanding how those teams were built that outlines a process Minnesota can follow. Joe Maddon took over as Cubs manager in 2015. He was coming to an organization that had the fifth best farm system in baseball the year prior and was ready to take the next step. The North-Siders won 97 games that year (good enough for just third in the NL Central) en route to an appearance in the NLCS. They were swept in four games by the New York Mets and had a winter to mull things over. A 63-41 record at the 2016 trade deadline saw them get better as they swung a massive trade to nab Aroldis Chapman from the Yankees for Gleyber Torres. That team went on to win 103 games and take the World Series by a tally of four games to three. They have won 90+ games in the two years since and are well positioned for a fifth straight postseason in 2019. Houston went from Bo Porter to A.J. Hinch prior to the 2015 season. Hinch joined an organization coming off a 92-loss season, but with the third best farm system in baseball. The Astros popped up with an ALDS defeat following an 86-win campaign in his first year. 2016 was a slight step back winning just 84 games, and then 2017 opportunity knocked again. Owning a 69-36 record with a mature big-league roster, Jeff Lunhow struck a trade to acquire Justin Verlander. Houston won 101 games and the World Series in 2017. Another big move was made that winter when Gerrit Cole was netted from the Pirates, and Houston turned their 103-win season into an ALCS defeat. During 2019 the Astros look like the odds-on favorites in the American League. In both of those examples we can see a successful organization making an impact move. Neither of them did so prior to a strong infrastructure being in place, a level of consistency being established, and future benefit also being somewhat certain. Even after the Astros swung the third straight blockbuster, this year for Zack Greinke, they have just a 27.9% chance to win the World Series. Obviously, that’s exponentially more than most of the competition, but it still places them at less than a one in three opportunity. What that highlights is that banking on postseason success still involves a significant amount of luck. Minnesota’s front office is still going to need to decide which avenue of player acquisition they’ll be committing to. There’s a good deal of roster turnover expected to take place over the offseason, and while the core remains intact, figuring out the key additions is a must. The Twins probably aren’t ever going to be able to outspend the competition, and Gerrit Cole is likely the only arm worthy of a big payday. They could absolutely swing a big trade though, and by showing patience this year they’ll have the assets necessary at a much more opportune time. Rocco Baldelli will return as an established manager next season, his support system will remain strong, and Minnesota will have aspirations raised substantially higher than they were entering the 2019 season. Assuming everything follows suit, it’s year two in a window of prolonged contention that a dive into the deep end should be explored. Hoarding prospects is great until the system bears fruit, but then graduating or utilizing them to extend a championship window as long as possible becomes the focus. Being a team like the Astros or Cubs is far more fulfilling for a fanbase than the prospects of a pop-up title and years back in the doldrums (a la Kansas City). The time is coming for the big splash. It wasn’t this summer, but it very well may be the next.

While we know the Twins’ are playing winning baseball because of dance parties and Miguel Sano, let’s take a look at how are the Astros doing this. For Houston, the biggest factor is that they have made it extremely difficult to score runs off their pitching staff. Since the start of the second half, they have averaged just 2.97 runs allowed per game -- tied with the St. Louis Cardinals for the lowest. The Twins are fortunate to miss their top two starters in Dallas Kuechel and Collin McHugh this series but will still face lefty Scott Kazmir and Mike Fiers. Fiers, as participants of the DomiNoNo contest will remember, threw a no-hitter and tragically won everyone a free medium Domino’s pizza two starts ago. Aiding in the run reduction has been the liberal use of the defensive shift. The Astros have repositioned their fielders all over the diamond to provide the maximum advantage. Only the Tampa Bay Rays have shifted on more occasions this year but the Astros have had 32 more instances than the Rays where the play was impacted by the shift. So either the Astros are positioning smarter or are luckier than the Rays. Whereas the pitching staff is mature -- they have second oldest collections of throwers in the American League -- the offense has all the young dudes (boogaloo dudes). None more youthful than 20-year-old shortstop Carlos Correa. While Twins fans are fanning themselves nightly over the displays of power from Sano, Astros fans have seen 100 plate appearances more of Correa who has performed well on both sides of the ball. Not only can he hit, he can cover a ton of ground in the infield. This series could prove to be an interesting showcase for the AL Rookie of the Year. Offensively, overall, the Astros are an interesting case study. The forward-thinking front office has compiled a lineup that isn’t necessarily the on-base machines that the Moneyball A’s were known for. Their .214 batting average is the lowest in the American League and their on-base percentage is in the bottom five. Their strategy for scoring runs involves stealing tons of bases (they have swiped an AL-leading 97 bags) and hitting dingers (174). The two game plans (running wild and swinging for the fences) don’t jive considering that the kind of fence-clearing power could score a runner from any base. There is no question that this is a significant series for both teams. The Twins are trying to maintain their position in the wild card race and the Astros are trying to distance themselves from the rest of the AL West. This should be a can’t miss series.