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Note: Thanks to spycake, I know now that we will forfeit pick 95. Even better. Only 2 players of 53 with significant careers. Amos Otis and Dave Cash. Addison Reed and his 6.8 WAR checks in as the third most successful pick 95. What is the 75th pick in the draft worth? If the Twins sign Alex Cobb or Lance Lynn they would forfeit this pick. How much should this loss factor into the decision? With the help of baseball reference, I took a look at all of the pick 75s since 1965. The very first pick 75 was Frederick Marden. Marden never pitched in the majors topping out in A-Ball. The first #75 pick to reach the majors is Don McCormack. McCormack might be remembered for his career major league batting average of .400. He accomplished this splitting his 2 career hits evenly over his 2 seasons. The first significant major leaguer was drafted in 1975. With 24.8 career WAR, Jason Thompson is among the very best players drafted at pick 75. There are three others with career WAR in the 20s in Tino Martinez, Grady Sizemore and Yunel Escobar. One other major league has had a significant career. Wade Davis has 11.7 career WAR. Five players with a significant career. Rounding out the top 10 are Scott Radinsky, Joe Lefebvre, Joel Johnston, A.J. Minter and the previously recognized Don McCormack. Since Yunel Escobar was drafted in 2005, the 75th pick has a cumulative total of -1.2 WAR. Yes... there might be a significant player among them. Significant players occur about once a decade at this pick. That significant player isn’t going to come from players drafted between 2006 and 2013 though. That group is ages 25-32 and done or almost done. Maybe pick 75 has just been unlucky. The Twins have never drafted 75th. Maybe they know better. Let’s increase the sample size and look at picks 74 and 76. Pick 74 has three players of 53 thus far with a career WAR of 20 or better including the very first pick 74 in 1965. The Twins drafted Graig Nettles in 1965. The Twins do know better! He finished with a career WAR of 68.0 and has a good chance to remain the MV74P at least through my lifetime. Let’s hope Akil Baddoo challenges that number. I would hate to miss out on a Nettles to add Lance Lynn. Ironically, the Twins did lose out on Nettles in order to bolster the rotation by trading him for Luis Tiant. Tiant pitched well in one season for the Twins until hit by significant injury. David Cone comes in as the number 2 pick 74. He has career WAR of 62.5. The Royals missed out on 62.6 of that WAR when they traded him for Rick Anderson and Ed Hearn. Two fantastic pick 74s but the drafting teams had little to show for the wisdom of their picks. The other player with better than 20 career WAR is Jim Clancy at 21.3. Two players are still active with a small chance to get there are John Jay(13.1) and Tyler Chatwood(10.2). How about pick 76? Chase Utley is the MV76P almost in the clubhouse at 65.4 WAR. He will get challenged by Giancarlo Stanton currently with 35.1 WAR at age 28. The only other player drafted 76 with a career WAR above 20 is Marquis Grissom at 29.4. Only 9 of the 53 players drafted pick 76 have a positive career WAR including current major league catchers Nick Hundley, James McCann and JR Murphy. The Twins have drafted 76th twice. They drafted Graig’s brother Jim Nettles in 1968. His 1.1 career WAR ranks him 8th. Let’s hope Blayne Enlow adds his name to the short list of players with a significant career. What is a pick 75 worth? Ten players with significant careers thus far among the 159 players drafted picks 74 through 76. Nettles, Cone, Utley and Stanton had seasons where they were among the best at their positions. Teams hit on a major league star about 3% of the time although two drafting teams did not recognize their star. You find a player with a solid career about 7% of the time. Around 20% of the players will have achieved positive WAR in the majors. Do you give up that pick to sign a free agent? I think so. I think you do so without blinking. It would be awful to lose out on Giancarlo Stanton but that likelihood seems so remote. If he is there at 75, he would have been there at 60. Pick him then. Losing the draft pick should have no impact on the Twins decision about signing Lynn or Cobb. It all has to be about the years and the dollars. If they can get either for two years, I would offer that contract without hesitation or thought of pick 75. *WAR as calculated by baseball reference. https://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?draft_type=junreg&overall_pick=75&query_type=overall_pick

The history of the qualifying offer in Major League Baseball is short, as it only came into existence at the start of the 2012-2013 offseason. The purpose of the qualifying offer was to grant compensation, in the form of a draft pick, to MLB teams that lost a key player in free agency. Since its inception, 73 players have been extended a qualifying offer, and of those 73 players, only five of them have accepted the deal, none of which were from this offseason. The primary reason for this being that teams try to avoid extending a player a qualifying offer if they think it will be accepted. Among those players who rejected a qualifying offer this winter are Jake Arrieta, Lance Lynn and Alex Cobb. At the onset of the offseason, it seemed like a no brainer that these players would receive deals that would easily exceed that of the qualifying offer. However, as the season draws near, there is a chance that one of these players may accept a 1-year deal for potentially less than the $17.4M that they turned down, in an opportunity to prove themselves again and reenter the market again next winter. If the Twins were to get back into the chase for one of these pitchers, it would probably only be if they took a deal for less value than the qualifying offer. Believe it or not, this move is actually not unprecedented. So, let’s take a look back at the times that this has happened. Nelson Cruz – 2013 Offer Rejected: 1-year, $14.1M (TEX) Signed For: 1-year, $8M (BAL) Nelson Cruz was a dominate offensive threat for the Texas Rangers in his time there. During his first three seasons in Texas, 2008-2010, he collected 9.7 fWAR in just 267 games played, a 5.9 fWAR pace per 162 games played. However, this production fell off in his final three years with the team, where he had a mere 3.7 fWAR over 392 games played, a 1.5 fWAR pace per 162 games played. Still, Cruz’s reputation proceeded itself, and caused him to receive a qualifying offer from the Rangers. However, when he hit free agency, what MLB teams saw was a three year track record of underwhelming success from a one dimensional player. This gave the Orioles and opportunity to take a flyer on Cruz. The move could not have panned out better for them, as Cruz hit for a .271/.333/.525 slash line, along with an MLB leading 40 home runs. Stephen Drew – 2013 Offer Rejected: 1-year, $14.1M (BOS) Signed For: 1-year, $10M (BOS) Stephen Drew was coming off of a career year in 2013, where he produced as an above average bat, along with league average defense at shortstop. Unlike today, those to skills were few and far between just five years ago. Despite this, MLB teams saw right through the aging shortstop, who had a very inconsistent career up to that point. Drew’s offense in 2013 was carried largely on the weight of his .320 BABIP, a full 30 points higher than his career average. Drew didn’t end up signing with a team until May of the following season, where he resigned with the Red Sox for $4M less than the offer that he rejected from them just six months earlier. It turns out that MLB GMs were right to be skeptical of Stephen Drew, as he has been nothing more than a replacement level player in the four years since. Kendrys Morales – 2013 Offer Rejected: 1-year, $14.1M (SEA) Signed For: 1-year, $12M (MIN) The Twins’ signing of Kendrys Morales in June of 2014 was maybe the most unique of all these signings. The reason for this being that Morales didn’t sign with the Twins until June of 2014, after the First Year Player Draft. This meant that even though Morales rejected his qualifying offer, the Twins didn’t have to give up a draft pick to sign him. That was perhaps the only good take away from the Kendrys Morales signing, as he slashed a mere .234/.259/.325 with just one home run over 39 games in a Twins uniform. He was then dealt back to the Mariners before the trade deadline in exchange for Stephen Pryor, a minor league pitcher that has been out of baseball since the Twins released him after the 2015 season. Ian Desmond – 2015 Offer Rejected: 1-year, $15.8M (WAS) Signed For: 1-year, $8M (TEX) Ian Desmond’s career got off to a good start with the Washington Nationals. In Washington, Desmond was a shortstop that was mostly known for his bat, though he still provided manageable defense at short. However, when Desmond hit free agency, he was coming off of a down season offensively (83 wRC+), and there were questions about his ability to stay at short. Ian Desmond wound up making the move to the outfield, and as a result his value plummeted. Much like Nelson Cruz, signing a 1-year deal paid off well for Desmond, as he had a bounce back season with the Rangers, hitting for a 106 wRC+ on his way to a 3.3 fWAR season. Dexter Fowler – 2015 Offer Rejected: 1-year, $15.8M (CHC) Signed For: 1-year, $13M (CHC) The drama of where Dexter Fowler would sign lead all the way up to the start of spring training, where it appeared as though he had a deal locked up with Baltimore, before reversing course and resigning with the Cubs. Fowler is yet another player on this list who benefited greatly from signing a 1-year bounce back deal. 2016 was undoubtedly the best season of Fowler’s career, both offensively and defensively. Not only did he have a career high .367 wOBA, but it was also the only season in his career when his defense wasn’t terrible in center. For a player whose DRS (Defensive Runs Saved) usually sits somewhere between -10 and -20, the +1 number that he posted in 2016 was a welcome surprise for the Cubs. Hisahi Iwakuma – 2015 Offer Rejected: 1-year, $15.8M (SEA) Signed For: 1-year, $12M (SEA) Hisahi Iwakuma, the first and only pitcher on this list, resigned with the Seattle Mariners in December of 2015, just over a month after he rejected a qualifying offer from the team. The deal did include two vesting options, and had the potential to reach as high as $39M with incentives. Iwakuma was able to hit the first vesting option, along with an incentive bonus, so the deal ending up being for 2-years and $27.5M. Even though the deal ending up reaching that mark, it was still a very team friendly deal as the vesting options took most of the risk out of the contract, as only $12M was guaranteed. Howie Kendrick – 2015 Offer Rejected: 1-year, $15.8M (LAD) Signed For: 2-years, $20M (LAD) The final player on this list is also the only player that actually signed a deal with more guaranteed money than the qualifying offer that he rejected. This reason I am including Howie Kendrick on this list is the 1-year, $15.8M deal he rejected is a much better offer than the 2-year, $20M deal he ultimately accepted. Howie Kendrick ended up getting traded twice during the course of his 2-year contract. First from the Dodger to the Phillies, and then from the Phillies to the Nationals. After having an okay year in 2016, Kendrick had a strong performance in 2017, putting up 1.6 fWAR despite only playing 91 games due to injury. As you can see, a player that rejected a qualifying offer actually signing a 1-year deal to try and test their luck in the following offseason is well within the realm of possibilities. For pitchers like Lance Lynn and Alex Cobb, this might not be a bad idea for them, if they can’t get a quality long-term offer, since there are many question marks around them, being just a year removed from Tommy John surgery.

After coming up short in their quest to sign Yu Darvish, the Twins were forced to turn their focus toward other pitchers on the free agent and trade markets in order to fill out their rotation. They have since added two starting pitchers, by taking a flyer on Anibal Sanchez, and making a trade with the Tampa Bay Rays for Jake Odorizzi. Theses moves added just under $9M to the Twins 2018 payroll, bringing the total to roughly $118M. However, it is reasonable to assume that if the Twins were willing to offer Yu Darvish a $20M+ per year deal, they might have more money available to make another addition to the rotation.If the Twins were to make another move, many would assume it would be one of Jake Arrieta, Alex Cobb or Lance Lynn. According to a source close to Jon Heyman, he believes that Lance Lynn is a “pitcher of interest” for the Twins, and that he is favored by the Twins among the top three. The addition of Lance Lynn could be the move that takes the Twins rotation from one filled with question marks, to one with solidified depth. Right now, the Twins rotation to start the season would be Jose Berrios, Jake Odorizzi, Kyle Gibson, Alberto Mejia, and one of Phil Hughes, Tyler Duffey or Anibal Sanchez. Adding Lynn would give the Twins five starters that they can trust in their rotation until Ervin Santana returns, and provide added depth if one of the other starters goes down with an injury during the season. Lance Lynn had a strong performance in 2017, posting a 3.43 ERA (4.75 xFIP) over 186.1 innings, after coming back from Tommy John surgery. However, the inflated xFIP, along with a career low .244 BABIP last season cause some hesitation in thinking that Lynn will be able to replicate those numbers again in 2018. Another area of concern for Lance Lynn is his fastball velocity. Lynn is a pitcher who relies heavily on his four-seam, two-seam and cut fastballs, and last year he saw his average fastball velocity drop from the 92.4 MPH it was at in 2015, before his Tommy John surgery, down to 91.3 MPH. A 1.1 MPH drop may not sound like a lot, but when a pitcher is already throwing in the low 90’s every MPH is critical, and if that number were to drop any lower it could be detrimental for Lynn. There is one bright spot for Lynn coming off of 2017, and that was his 0.304 xwOBA. This ranked 45th amongst the 118 pitchers who threw at least 2,000 pitches last season. This suggests that Lynn was a slightly above average starting pitcher last season, and backs up his 3.43 ERA a lot better than his other peripheral metrics do. So, if the Twins really do have aspirations of signing Lance Lynn, what would it take to get him? At the beginning of the offseason MLB Trade Rumors predicted that Lance Lynn would receive an offer of 4-years and $56M. Given the way the market has panned out this winter, it might be easy to assume that Lynn would receive an offer south of that mark. However, unlike Darvish, I don’t think there will be too big of a drop from this price, if there is one at all. A big reason for this being that earlier in the offseason Tyler Chatwood signed a 3-year $38M deal with the Cubs. Given that Chatwood was considered to be a step down from Lynn entering this offseason, it would be hard to believe that Lynn would accept a deal that is equal to or less than that of Chatwood’s. If this is the case, it doesn’t leave the Twins a lot of wiggle room with either years or dollars for them to come down from the 4-years and $56M projection. Additionally, Lance Lynn received a qualifying offer from the Cardinals. If the Twins were to sign Lynn they would have to give up their third highest pick in the 2018 First Year Player Draft (75th overall). Though, unlike previous years under the old CBA, the Twins would have had to give up their top unprotected pick (20th overall). So, by comparison, giving up the 75th pick in the draft for an established major league pitcher isn’t a terrible trade-off, but it is still a factor that the Twins front office will need to take into consideration before making an offer for Lynn. Personally, I would like to see the Twins add another piece to their rotation, but the addition of Lance Lynn, or Cobb and Arrieta for that matter, seems a bit risky to me. If they are able to swoop in and get Lynn at an absolute bargain, I think they should make the move, otherwise they might be better off staying put, and look to invest more money into free agency next offseason. Click here to view the article

It's starting to sound like for the Twins to land one of top free agent pitchers still available, the player would need to accept a deal for less value than the qualifying offers he rejected. Believe it or not, this move is actually not unprecedented. Let’s take a look back at the times that this has happened.The qualifying offer came into existence at the start of the 2012-13 offseason. Its purpose was to grant compensation, in the form of a draft pick, to MLB teams that lost a key player in free agency. Since its inception, 73 players have been extended a qualifying offer and only five have accepted the deal. The primary reason for this being that teams try to avoid extending a player a qualifying offer if they think it will be accepted. Among those players who rejected a qualifying offer this winter are Jake Arrieta, Lance Lynn and Alex Cobb. At the onset of the offseason, it seemed like a no-brainer that these players would receive deals that would easily exceed that of the qualifying offer. However, as the season draws near, there is a chance that one of these players may accept a one-year deal for potentially less than the $17.4M that they each turned down, in an opportunity to prove himself again and re-enter the market again next winter. Let's take a look back at the history of players who accepted deals at a lesser value than the qualifying offers they originally rejected. Nelson Cruz – 2013 Offer Rejected: one-year, $14.1M (TEX) Signed For: one-year, $8M (BAL) Nelson Cruz was a dominant offensive threat for the Texas Rangers in his time there. During his first three seasons in Texas, 2008-10, he collected 9.7 fWAR in just 267 games, a 5.9 fWAR pace per 162 games played. However, this production fell off in his final three years with the team, where he had a mere 3.7 fWAR over 392 games, a 1.5 fWAR pace per 162 games played. Still, Cruz’s reputation preceded him, and caused him to receive a qualifying offer from the Rangers. When he hit free agency, what MLB teams saw was a three year track record of underwhelming success from a one-dimensional player. This gave the Orioles ad opportunity to take a flyer on Cruz. The move could not have panned out better for them, as Cruz hit for a .271/.333/.525 slash line, along with an MLB leading 40 home runs. Stephen Drew – 2013 Offer Rejected: one-year, $14.1M (BOS) Signed For: one-year, $10M (BOS) Stephen Drew was coming off of a career year in 2013, where he produced as an above average bat along with league-average defense at shortstop. Unlike today, players with those two skills were few and far between just five years ago. Despite this, MLB teams saw right through the aging shortstop, who had a very inconsistent career up to that point. Drew’s offense in 2013 was carried largely on the weight of his .320 BABIP, a full 30 points higher than his career average. Drew didn’t end up signing with a team until May of the following season, where he re-signed with the Red Sox for $4M less than the offer that he rejected from them just six months earlier. It turns out that MLB GMs were right to be skeptical of Stephen Drew, as he has been nothing more than a replacement level player in the four years since. Kendrys Morales – 2013 Offer Rejected: one-year, $14.1M (SEA) Signed For: one-year, $12M (MIN) The Twins’ signing of Kendrys Morales in June of 2014 was maybe the most unique of all these signings. The reason for this being that Morales didn’t sign with the Twins until June of 2014, after the First Year Player Draft. This meant that even though Morales rejected his qualifying offer, the Twins didn’t have to give up a draft pick to sign him. That was perhaps the only good take away from the Kendrys Morales signing, as he slashed a mere .234/.259/.325 with just one home run over 39 games in a Twins uniform. He was then dealt back to the Mariners before the trade deadline in exchange for Stephen Pryor, a minor league pitcher who has been out of baseball since the Twins released him after the 2015 season. Ian Desmond – 2015 Offer Rejected: one-year, $15.8M (WAS) Signed For: one-year, $8M (TEX) Ian Desmond’s career got off to a good start with the Washington Nationals. During his time there, Desmond was a shortstop mostly known for his bat, though he still provided manageable defense at short. When Desmond hit free agency, however, he was coming off of a down season offensively (83 wRC+), and there were questions about his ability to stay at short. Desmond wound up moving to the outfield, and as a result his value plummeted. Much like Nelson Cruz, signing a one-year deal paid off well for Desmond, as he had a bounce back season with the Rangers, hitting for a 106 wRC+ on his way to a 3.3 fWAR season. Dexter Fowler – 2015 Offer Rejected: one-year, $15.8M (CHC) Signed For: one-year, $13M (CHC) The drama of where Dexter Fowler would sign led all the way up to the start of spring training, where it appeared as though he had a deal locked up with Baltimore, before reversing course and re-signing with the Cubs. Fowler is yet another player on this list who benefited greatly from signing a one-year bounce back deal. That 2016 was undoubtedly the best season of Fowler’s career, both offensively and defensively. Not only did he have a career high .367 wOBA, but it was also the only season in his career when his defense wasn’t terrible in center. For a player whose DRS (Defensive Runs Saved) usually sits somewhere between -10 and -20, the +1 number that he posted in 2016 was a welcome surprise for the Cubs. Hisashi Iwakuma – 2015 Offer Rejected: one-year, $15.8M (SEA) Signed For: one-year, $12M (SEA) Hisashi Iwakuma, the first and only pitcher on this list, re-signed with the Seattle Mariners in December of 2015, just over a month after he rejected a qualifying offer from the team. The deal did include two vesting options, and had the potential to reach as high as $39M with incentives. Iwakuma was able to hit the first vesting option, along with an incentive bonus, so the deal ending up being for two-years and $27.5M. It was still a very team-friendly deal, as the vesting options took most of the risk out of the contract. Only $12M was guaranteed. Howie Kendrick – 2015 Offer Rejected: one-year, $15.8M (LAD) Signed For: two-years, $20M (LAD) The final player on this list is also the only player who actually signed a deal with more guaranteed money than the qualifying offer that he rejected. The reason I'm including Howie Kendrick on this list is the one-year, $15.8M deal he rejected is a much better offer than the two-year, $20M deal he ultimately accepted. Kendrick ended up getting traded twice during the course of his two-year contract. First from the Dodger to the Phillies, and then from the Phillies to the Nationals. After having an okay year in 2016, Kendrick had a strong performance in 2017, putting up 1.6 fWAR despite only playing 91 games due to injury. As you can see, signing a player who rejected a qualifying offer to a one-year deal is well within the realm of possibilities. This might be an especially attractive idea for pitchers with injury concerns, such as Lynn and Cobb. They may be struggling to get quality long-term offers right now, given question marks around them, but another year of health and production could dramatically change their market if they're willing to accept a one-year offer. Click here to view the article

Twins fans might not want to hear it but Yu Darvish is heading to the Chicago Cubs on a six-year deal that could be worth up to $150 million. Minnesota had made a formal offer to the top free agent pitcher but Darvish’s camp wanted clubs to stretch the deal to six years. The Cubs were willing to make that jump. Now that Darvish picked another club, Minnesota’s front office is going to have to act fast. There will likely be a domino effect with the first big name comimg off the board. That being said, there are a couple of different paths the Twins could take to solidify their rotation.Other Free Agent Options The second tier options for free agency include names like Alex Cobb and Lance Lynn. National baseball writer Jon Heyman reported that “Alex Cobb is believed to be [the Twins] fallback choice for the rotation” after Darvish passes. Minnesota is reluctant to go past four or five years for any free agent pitcher so that also changes their approach with other free agent arms. Minnesota has been in contact with the other free agent pitchers but MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger says “their interest in Cobb has been a bit overstated.” Plenty of other teams have expressed interest in signing Lynn but most clubs believe his asking price is too high at this point. There may be some other options to add depth to the back-end of Minnesota’s starting rotation. Chris Tillman is coming off of shoulder surgery and could be a strong bounce-back candidate. Another option would be reuniting with Jaime Garcia, who made one start for the Twins last season before being dealt to the Yankees. Searching The Trade Market The Twins are considering a variety of options with Darvish off the market. 1500 ESPN’s Darren Wolfson gave fans an update on the Darvish situation. In his podcast, he mentions the Twins are “maintaining regular trade talk” with the Rays. Tampa Bay has multiple pitchers who could be dealt and each one is going to come at a different cost. Chris Archer is the most coveted Rays pitcher. The former All-Star is signed to a team-friendly deal through 2019 with team options for 2020-21. He won’t turn 30 until next September so Tampa isn’t exactly in a hurry to have him pack his bags. Minnesota might have to deal multiple top prospects and maybe some young major league assets to acquire Archer. Another option could be Tampa’s Jake Odorizzi who has compiled a 3.71 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP over the last three seasons. He is in his second year of arbitration eligibility so that means he won’t be a free agent until 2020. According to Wolfson, the Rays have a lot of interest in outfielder Max Kepler. Kepler turned 25 this weekend and he could be poised for a breakout season in 2018. With Darvish heading to Chicago, what’s the team’s next best option? Another free agent pitcher? Making a trade with Tampa Bay? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. Click here to view the article

You might have heard the news already, but Yu Darvish followed Chris Gimenez and signed with the Chicago Cubs. There are many contingencies. But at this point, a trade may make more sense for the Twins than signing any of the remaining free agents. There are several trade targets that should be considered. Today, we consider Astros right-hander Collin McHugh. There are still the bigger named free agents from this year’s class, Jake Arrieta, Lance Lynn and Alex Cobb. Signing any of them would cost the Twins their third draft pick in 2018. There are the third-tier free agent pitchers like Jaime Garcia and Jason Vargas. They won’t cost a draft pick, but there is minimal upside. There are several other free agent starters that are back end of the rotation types at best.Background Collin McHugh made 15 big league appearances in 2012 and 2013 for the Mets and Rockies. Following that 2013 season, Colorado waived him and the Astros claimed him. As a 27-year-old rookie in 2014, he made 25 starts for Houston and went 11-9 with a 2.73 ERA. In 2015, he went 19-7 with a 3.89 ERA in 32 starts. In 2016, he made 33 starts and went 13-10 with a 4.34 ERA. Last year, he missed a lot of time due to a posterior impingement of his right elbow. He made 12 starts and went 5-2 with a 3.55 ERA. However, last August, the Astros acquired Justin Verlander and went on to win the World Series. Then this offseason, they traded for Gerrit Cole. Their rotation going into spring training is Verlander, Dallas Keuchel, Gerrit Cole, Lance McCullers and Charlie Morton. McHugh provides depth, but he would be outside of the rotation. McHugh is not a flamethrower. His average fastball is just over 90 mph. He throws a cutter in the mid-80s and also has a good slow curveball. McHugh will turn 31 in mid-June. Last week, he lost his arbitration hearing and will make $4.55 million in 2018. He will have one more year of arbitration in 2019, so acquiring him gives you two years of control. Risk As I see it, there are a few risks with McHugh. First and foremost, the elbow is a concern. I get that as of last season his injury had nothing to do with his ulnar collateral ligament, but sometimes pain in that area can lead to other issues in related structures. Reward Collin McHugh is not Chris Archer. Acquiring him would give the Twins a real solid #3 pitcher (if healthy). A top three of Santana, Berrios and McHugh is pretty solid. Kyle Gibson bumps down to the #4 starter and then you’ve got depth of young pitchers with varying levels of upside competing for the fifth spot in the rotation. That depth then moves down to Rochester where they continue to work to move their way up. Secondly, he provides a quality starter at likely two years and maybe $10-13 million. Despite not having big velocity, McHugh finds a way to miss bats. Over his four previous seasons, his K/9 numbers have been 9.1, 7.6, 8.6 and 8.8. Those numbers would be at the top of Twins starters in recent years. Potential Cost McHugh has two more years of team control, likely in the $10-13 million range. He doesn’t have a spot in the Astros starting rotation. The Astros have used a lot of minor leaguers in the last couple of years to acquire players like Verlander and Cole. They will likely want to acquire prospects for McHugh, but the haul for him should be far less than a trade for Chris Archer. In other words, the Twins should be able to pick any 6-8 prospects that they say are untouchable, and then the conversation can start. That would mean that the Twins may have to give up one quality prospect, but not a top 100 type of prospect. At that point, if I’m the Astros, I’m wanting quantity as much as quality. They should take advantage of the Twins minor league depth. Maybe they would want three prospects in the 16-30 range as opposed to the Twins #11 prospect alone. By comparison, acquiring Chris Archer is likely to cost a young major leaguer, two top five prospects and maybe two more prospects. But instead of getting a guy similar to Ervin Santana, you would be getting an absolute ace who is young and under team control for four more years for about $30 million. It’s an important distinction when comparing two potential trade targets. Is Collin McHugh a guy you think that the Twins should consider acquiring? Click here to view the article

It’s been another painfully quiet week for the free agent market, with Yu Darvish at the center of another series of rumors. Last week I wrote about how the top free agent options stack up by various rate stats, and it was clear by those metrics that Darvish stands well above the rest of the free agent pack – and well ahead of any of the pitchers currently slotted into the Twins rotation. But just how much might one of the “Big Four” impact the Twins’ projections for 2018? That is where we’ll turn our attention for Part II of “By The Numbers.”To start, let’s look at where the Twins currently stand by the one major projection system that’s been fully public so far. On FanGraphs you’ll find an early look at their projected standings for 2018 based on the Steamer projection system. FanGraphs writers have cautioned that their projected standings will be updated sometime in March to incorporate ZiPS, so expect these estimates to change, but Steamer currently projects the Twins to finish at 80-82, or 12 games behind Cleveland in the AL Central and 9 games behind the Yankees and Angels, who are projected about even for both wild cards. Even if an AL Central teeming with 90-loss teams gifts the Twins a few extra wins in the Wild Card race, Steamer seems to think the Twins have a ways yet to go to catch up with the Yankees and Angels after their aggressive offseasons. So how did the free agents stack up with the Twins’ candidates in 2017, and what do the major projections systems expect from them in 2018? Let’s take a look: Download attachment: FASP1.png Download attachment: FASP2.png *As mentioned above, FanGraphs hasn’t yet released their formal “Depth Chart” projections, which aggregate ZiPS and Steamer and prorate for the FanGraphs staff’s playing time projections, so I’ve calculated the Depth Chart projections manually based on FanGraphs’ methodology and the ZiPS projections that have been released so far. Jake Arrieta’s ZiPS projections have not been released, so his Depth Chart projection is based only on Steamer. Unsurprisingly, Steamer and ZiPS both project Yu Darvish to lead the pack in 2018, but what is a bit surprising is by how much the projections see him outperforming the rest of the field. If you look at the aggregated rankings, he is projected to outperform Jake Arrieta and Jose Berrios (ranked 2 and 3 above) by more than a win and to outperform every other free agent starters by at least two wins. Maybe more surprising is that the aggregated projections do not project Lance Lynn or Alex Cobb as clear improvements over Kyle Gibson as the third starter and or even anything more than a slight improvement over Adalberto Mejia as the fourth starter. Of course, the Twins will eventually need a fifth starter, and signing Jaime Garcia or even Chris Tillman could likely help avoid a replacement-level solution (see: Phil Hughes) every fifth day until top pitching prospects Stephen Gonsalves and Fernando Romero prove they’re ready for the show. Do these projections change your opinions of any of the free agent starters? Who would you have the Twins sign? Click here to view the article

It’s possible both Alex Cobb and Lance Lynn end up costing roughly the same amount combined as Yu Darvish all on his own. Add to the top or aim for depth? Which of those strategies would you prefer the Twins take when it comes to upgrading their rotation?I threw this idea out on Twitter last Friday. I figured it was possible a total investment of $120 million may be able to net a team Darvish alone or the combination of both Cobb and Lynn. ... and it doesn't sound like they'll go nuts for either of those two. MLB Trade Rumors noted that Cobb has already lowered his asking price from $100 million down to $70 million. This was just me spitballing some numbers, so it’s entirely possible that none of those three pitchers sign for anything close to the deals I threw out there, but just play along and let me know which of those two options you’d prefer. Click here to view the article