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Respy

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Everything posted by Respy

  1. Respy
    It will be interesting to see the lineups today, with Holland (a lefty) on the mound. Mauer has struggled to open the season and historically (3 for 17) against Holland. Will we see Gimenez at first base today?Does Jason Castro need a break filled in by Gimenez, and especially with a lefty on the mound? Would you dare take him out after going 3 for 6 with 6 walks in the opening series? Castro is also 4 for 12 with one homerun lifetime against Holland.Do you start Escobar at short today, given that a lefty is on the mound, and Escobar went 2 for 4 with 4 RBI on Wednesday? If so, then what to do with Jorge Polanco who has started the season 4 for 6 with 3 RBI, 2 walks, and no strikeouts?Grossman hit lefties great last year (.344 BA, .994 OPS) but is off to a hitless start this year. Do you start him again today with a lefty on the mound? Or, do you DH Sano, giving Escobar or Gimenez the start at 3B?This morning on 93X, Randy Shaver predicted Dozier would hit a homerun off of Holland. I like the call.I can't find the exact quote, but Molitor said yesterday he plans to keep Buxton batting third for now
  2. Respy
    It's a lot of pressure for the young man, but Buxton has the talent to be the heart and soul for this Twins roster within the next few years theoretically sans Mauer and Dozier. Many will be quick to say that he was over-hyped for too long. I am constantly reminded of a young Torii Hunter with more talent, and the broadcast crew eluded to the same idea yesterday while Torii was visiting the booth. All I ask is that he stay healthy, and he'll grow into himself.
  3. Respy
    MVP: Buxton Pitcher of the Year: Ervin Santana Reliever of the Year: Belisle ROY: Mejia Sorry I guess I disagreed with all of yours!
  4. Respy
    I generally don't like it either. But I guess we could think about the logic of the ideal game flow: 1) Dozier hit or walk 2) Dozier maybe steals. Grossman hit or walk. 3) Buxton Drives run(s) in. 4) Buxton steals. Joe drives him in or gets him over. 5) Sano sac fly or big fly 6-9) Meh against lefty Repeat.
  5. Respy
    http://www.1500espn.com/twins-2/2017/04/twins-opening-day-lineup-buxton-mauer-sano-batting-3-4-5/ 1) Dozier 2) Grossman 3) Buxton 4) Mauer 5) Sano 6) Castro 7) Polanco 8) Kepler 9) Rosario
  6. Respy
    Who kept saying that the weather was going to be gorgeous for the home opener? Oh yeah, that was me. On the radio this morning (93X) they were announcing the Twins lineup for home opener (and I was like, 'wow, already?') which they referenced the Star Tribune. I come online this morning and it turns out yesterday afternoon the Star Tribune put out projected lineups for the home opener. http://www.startribune.com/twins-kansas-city-projected-opening-day-lineups/417919003/ Twins 2B Brian Dozier 1B Joe Mauer CF Byron Buxton 3B Miguel Sano RF Max Kepler LF Eddie Rosario DH Robbie Grossman C Jason Castro SS Jorge Polanco RHP Ervin Santana Royals LF Alex Gordon 3B Mike Moustakas CF Lorenzo Cain 1B Eric Hosmer C Salvador Perez DH Brandon Moss RF Paulo Orlando SS Alcides Escobar 2B Raul Mondesi LHP Danny Duffy The positions are almost certainly right, but do we think we have that good of an idea on the lineup already?
  7. Respy
    I'd increase the at-bats for Grossman, decrease the at bats for Park. Vargas has had some rough stints for the Twins, but I can't imagine him ever hitting as low as .216 over 200+ at bats. I'd peg him closer to .240-.250 but still having trouble finding his place on this roster. I hope at least one of the three can surprise us.
  8. Respy
    Seriously excellent overview. Thanks.
  9. Respy
    I like what Rosario could bring to this team, especially with the great outfield arm I didn't know he had before his call-up. He's no Vlad Guerrero, so I hope he learns to hone his eye at the plate a bit as he matures. I find it interesting that he had decent walk rates in the lower minors, yet also always had a reputation among his minors teammates of being a free swinger who could hit every good and bad pitch. As miserable as he could be to watch at the plate sometimes last year, I think he batted in 2016 somewhere near his floor, so I think he can only go up from here. Just how far up is yet to be seen. If he can improve to a .300 hitter, people won't care as much about the walks.
  10. Respy
    Anyone heard a health update about Kennys Vargas? If he was healthy, I'd be less surprised about Park going to Rochester.
  11. Respy
    Thus the importance of the OPS stat. It accounts for both the ability to get on base via walks and getting extra base hits. According to Fangraphs, Grossman projects to have an OBP better than league average (~.340 to .322) but a worse OPS than league average (~.720 to .739). Of course, Robbie had a very respectable OPS last year at .828. You can be sure that the Twins analytics are aware of these and all the other stats.
  12. Respy
    Ok, Monday then. 61 degrees and sunny. Even better.
  13. Respy
    I see 58 for Tuesday. Gorgeous!
  14. Respy
    I just realized that the Twins are playing the Red Wings tomorrow. So, think Park will be playing? I'm not sure how they usually construct these minor league spring training lineups.
  15. Respy
    Plus, chicks dig the long ball! How am I supposed to ever get my wife interested in baseball if we don't get to see any Park Bangs?
  16. Respy
    Well, um, well...sigh. One of my biggest concerns for this season was the development of Sano. And I was hoping we could put a power threat behind him for protection. With Vargas out for the foreseeable future...then...? I think Molitor is still tinkering with lineups, but seeing Jason Castro hit behind Sano today is extremely disappointing.
  17. Respy
    This bullpen should get us by until some young talent comes up. But barring injury or some horrendous showings, I'm largely not expecting that until September or next season. It certainly will not be good enough to support a playoff or .500+ caliber team. Do they have the first pick all season long?
  18. Respy
    Sano's success of course largely has to do with his development of making contact at the plate and not chasing pitches. A small part of it has to do with a pitcher's willingness to pitch to him. So far, they've been largely uninterested in throwing strikes and fastballs near the plate. Sano would benefit from having a more productive #5 hitter (yes, more productive than Trevor Plouffe [aside: Plouffe is hitting .425 so far this spring]) so pitchers sometimes feel obliged not to pitch around Sano. A breakout season from Park or Vargas might do the trick. If he's healthy, I think we all agree he's a lock for 30 home runs (which is no small feat!). I'd say 35 homeruns, .250 BA. And I sure hope he can pass 100 RBI. For reference, here's all the Twins who have surpassed 100 RBI this millenium: Josh Willingham (2012, 110) Delmon Young (2010, 112) Jason Kubel (2009, 103) Justin Morneau (2009, 100; 2008, 129; 2007, 111; 2006, 130) Torii Hunter (2007, 107; 2003, 102) Michael Cuddyer (2006, 109) Corey Koskie (2001, 103) Could Sano ever eclipse Morneau's high mark of 130? Killebrew's 140?
  19. Respy
    .250 28 Homeruns 90 runs 80 RBI He'll set a career high in steals. Let's say 22.
  20. Respy
    Anyone know if opposing teams tend to deploy pull-shifts for Castro? He seems to me to be fairly pull-happy, especially on infield grounders. Perhaps there could be a benefit here to putting a speedy guy like Buxton in the lineup in front of Castro, so that his steal threat and first-to-third threat makes the other team less likely to shift? On that note, does anyone know if a team is less likely to shift when there's a speedy runner on first?
  21. Respy
    LED lights for night games? They say the visibility overall will be better. 2016 Mauer AVG: Daytime (.291) ; Nighttime (.245)
  22. Respy
    So much of this depends on where in the world Moliter puts him in the batting order. 1st? 2nd? 5th? I'd assume he's mostly done batting 3rd? Regardless of where he hits, I think he can still put up a modest .800 OPS with an average around .270. Regardless of where he hits, he needs to be a clutch hitter for the Twins. 49 RBI and 1 homerun with runners on base, is not going to cut it. If only he could hit in every count like it was 3-2 (.359 average, .484 slugging). Unfortunately I'd say he gets a bit less than 400 at bats, and ends up with 7 homeruns and 45-50 RBI.
  23. Respy
    Slightly off-topic, but for fun, I thought I'd also share a projected Twins lineup, with 2016 clutch values shown: Polanco (0.1) Mauer (-1.8) Dozier (-2.3) Sano (-0.5) Buxton (-1.5) Kepler (-1.1) Park (-0.9) Castro (0.1) Rosario (-1.0) Well that's depressing.
  24. Respy
    I know analytics does not tell the whole story, but I'd point out that Henry Blanco's 'Clutch' stat was -0.65 with the Twins in 2004. FYI Jason Castro's average yearly MLB Clutch value is -0.2. Interpretation chart below (via Fangraphs): Rating Clutch Excellent 2.0 Great 1.0 Above Average 0.5 Average 0.0 Below Average -0.5 Poor -1.0 Awful -2.0
  25. Respy
    Regarding his strikeout numbers, you can look at his minor league numbers and his first two MLB seasons (2010 and 2012) and he had a walk rate of around 15%ish. But, he only averaged 6 homeruns per 400 plate appearances. I think at some point around 2012-2013 someone told him that if he is going to have any value whatsoever as a hitter, he needed to start popping some dingers. His strikeout rate doubled to about 30%, and his homer rate about doubled to 12.3 HR per 400 plate appearances. Has that made him more valuable as a hitter? I don't know. I think modern analytics say probably yes. I don't think he'll change his approach given his successful offensive year in 2013.
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