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nicksaviking

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Everything posted by nicksaviking

  1. nicksaviking
    What are you talking about? Why does someone have to predict the future to justify the use of BABIP? Also, I don't understand why using OPS to make a projection is fair game but BABIP isn't.
  2. nicksaviking
    I am so jealous of that rotation.
  3. nicksaviking
    Good point on Rosario, I can't see him starting all year if he has a .680 OPS, particularly if that's being weighed down by his OBP, which is a skill the Twins are dearly lacking. Same with Plouffe though. If he's playing that poorly, we should probably expect Sano at 3B. And if Murphy is head and shoulders better than Suzuki, I think the split will be more than 60/40. On one hand, this team likes it's veterans, on the other, they are going to want to showoff what they got for Aaron Hicks.
  4. nicksaviking
    That would be fine, but what if Duffey and Berrios are pitching great and the vets are pitching just "OK"? Will the they have the guts to pull Nolasco/Milone/Hughes if they are pitching like Pelfrey in 2015 even if the young guys are tearing up AAA? Same with the pen. If Fien/Jepsen/Abad are just pitching like Boyer and Fien in 2015, would they get removed if any of the young arms are tearing it up?
  5. nicksaviking
    That collection of vets in the bullpen is pretty uninspiring. If that's who comes north I'd feel much better IF we knew Fien, Nolasco and Abad have little to no leash. I'd also feel more comfortable if the team acknowledged that they understand Jepsen's resurgence with the Twins in 2015 is no more likely to recur than his decline with the Rays in 2015. What he did in Tampa last year was about what Tonkin did in Minnesota last year, Jepsen's role as bullpen Vice President should not be in stone.
  6. nicksaviking
    So Santana's .405 BABIP was flukey, but it in no way helps to explain the drop off in production in 2015 and nothing can? Even though nearly everyone predicted that Santana would drop off in 2015 due to his extremely high BABIP everyone was just a lucky guesser? Because there really isn't any other measure that takes into account "Texas Leaguers", "Seeing-eye Singles" and other various other hits that a fielder probably should have turned into an out but didn't, BABIP is a pretty strong tool for determining if a player had more than his fair share of these during the year. Obviously those kinds of hits are based more on luck than skill, and luck shouldn't be an expectation.
  7. nicksaviking
    At this point, barring injury Berrios has gotten close enough that he will get a shot at the MLB regardless of what he does in the minors. He could be terrible at Rochester, but the team will still want to see him before cutting bait as his resume to this point has been so outstanding. The same isn't a guarantee with Stewart of Jay. It's highly unlikely that they don't get at least a taste of the MLB, but as mentioned, their floor is still minor league flameout.
  8. nicksaviking
    But it sounds like the Twins didn't like the results of his physical and Cody's side disagreed that there was any concern about the physical. Otherwise what's to stop the club from always telling the player his physical showed "concerns"? Now I don't think the Twins of all teams would do some like this, but from a player's perspective, they have to be able to back out if they disagree with the club's interpretation of the physical.
  9. nicksaviking
    Pressly should be more of a lock than Fien, and I'm concerned that the team is going to put too much confidence in Jepsen. He wasn't doing well in TB and with his age, I think it's better than 50/50 that his declining results with TB will be what we see instead of spike we saw with the Twins. But my biggest concern is that Molitor will still run out relievers based on seniority, not talent. He can't keep running guys out in high leverage jams because of "experience". The young guys with the ability to miss bats need to be used when you most need bats missed, not in mop up duty. Fien should NEVER be on the mound with the bases loaded and less than two outs. Unless the game's already a blowout.
  10. nicksaviking
    I don't want either of them hitting and the Twins sure as hell better not be planning on any of them doing it regularly. I don't see value for the position other than defensive replacements, which is probably a push, and base running which Sweeney comes in third place.
  11. nicksaviking
    Of those guys only Mussina and Bumgarner were picked in the first round. Bumgarner was throwing mid-90's when he got drafted as a left-handed High Schooler and Mussina had plus velocity when he first came into the league and averaged well above league average strikeout numbers during his time in the league. I also wonder why everyone always throws Maddux into these discussions, it must be because he was known as a control pitcher. Maddux had above league average strikeout numbers during his prime relative to the rest of the league and is 10th all time on the career strikeout list. Lucas Giolito and Brady Aiken were recent top ten-type guys who fell due to injury, I'd be happy if the Twins had a shot at Matt Krook. I don't need velocity, and I'm sorry I put it that way, I just want strikeouts since the draft is the only way the Twins can get them. With the draft, it really hard to judge that ability in a pitcher aside from measuring their velocity. Also, the odds of getting Tom Glavine are no better than getting Randy Johnson.
  12. nicksaviking
    I would rather the Twins fail 9 out of 10 times on the fireballer than go the safe route no matter what the rate of success would be. I don't want a chance at a "good" pitcher in the 1st round, I want a chance at a great one. Again, the Twins have no problem affording "good" pitchers in free agency. The draft, and most likely the 1st round, is the team's only realistic way of getting a great one. I'll never fault them for trying and failing; keep at it, they'll hit on it some time.
  13. nicksaviking
    If the Twins offered Cody well under slot money, I would be pretty disappointed in the club if they were furious. What justification could they possibly have from wanting the guy to take less money than the system said was fair and seemingly asking him to take less than what was discussed prior to picking the player, and getting upset when he decides to try to do better the next year?
  14. nicksaviking
    I don't need to see them get to the playoffs several years in a row to go all in, but I want to see the rotation and the bullpen infused with youth and the young batters who need to be the keystones firmly entrenched. It still looks like 2016 is still going to be heavily influenced by the veterans who have already peaked. When the team finally tosses away the veteran crutches, that's when I want to see them go all in.
  15. nicksaviking
    That was when Hughes was throwing 92-94. Last year he was throwing 89-91. If his velocity is back in 2016 I'm good giving him a lot longer leash. If it's not back, and we should know fairly quickly, his leash should be very, very short.
  16. nicksaviking
    I agree, I'd like May and Duffey both in the rotation, but May has four pitches and he appears to be locked into the bullpen simply because he was effective there last year and the Twins have self-made bullpen issues currently. Most starters with good velocity and four pitches would make a good bullpen pitcher, but other teams don't push them to the pen because obviously they are more valuable in the rotation pitching two, three, maybe four times as many innings. Slightly different topic, if Hughes' velocity is still at 90 MPH, he should not be a lock for the rotation. He's been in the pen before and perhaps his velocity returns or increases with the short outings. A 90 MPH FB and a way below average curveball make for a bad starter, just as they did last year. He just doesn't have the breaking pitches to get away with a low velocity FB.
  17. nicksaviking
    Cody has to agree for the Twins to be able to re-draft him. He certainly might, but who knows what went on in last year's negotiations. Also, if we're looking at a re-draft guy, I'd still rather have Kyle Funkhouser. And considering Funkhouser is a Louisville/Kentucky guy, you know the Twins are already thinking about him. I think they're addicted to players from Kentucky schools.
  18. nicksaviking
    I don't want a guy who can hold his own in the 1st round of the draft. The Twins don't need to draft any high floor/low ceiling guys because those are the guys that are easily affordable in free agency. The Twins can't or won't sign high ceiling talent, particularly pitchers, and they shouldn't. They've signed five high floor/low ceiling free agents in the past four years though. No one, including the Twins should regret not taking Nola and his 90 MPH fastball.
  19. nicksaviking
    I agree, which is why when service time issues are in the review mirror, the young guys with upside should be in the rotation ahead of the vets so that they may more quickly get their growing pains out of the way.
  20. nicksaviking
    How will we ever know what we have in young players if we don't give them a shot? We know what Milone is and it's back of the rotation starter. Shouldn't we want to at least see if we can top that?
  21. nicksaviking
    This is said a lot, but the service time still comes into play. Let's say the Twins decide to try to extend him after year three, Berrios and his agent aren't going to accept the same deal if there is only two years left of arbitration than if there was three. We also can't assume an extension is automatic, plenty of guys look to bypass extensions because they are dead set on free agency. That said, if he's pitching like he did last year, I want him up by May. My biggest concern is that the vets like Nolasco, Milone and Hughes are going to pitch similarly to Pelfrey last year, not good enough to win a division, but not bad enough that pulling him out of the rotation is a comfortable decision. I have a really hard time seeing the Twins yoink a veteran starter unless he's either injured or terrible. However in my book, if you're merely labeled as "an innings eater", "OK" or "not awful", you absolutely should not be grandfathered a spot in the rotation ahead of a younger guy who is pitching like he could be a part of the future.
  22. nicksaviking
    If this team makes early round choices even in small part due to area ties, they might as well just fire all the scouts and put the PR department n charge of the draft. Logan Shore? Please no, haven't we gotten over that whole right-handed, low 90's, low strike out, control pitcher bit? The last couple years, the TJ guys like Aiken and Giolito have fallen near the Twins range, maybe they can look at Matt Krook.
  23. nicksaviking
    For a relief pitcher with a 91 MPH fastball no breaking pitch and strikeouts, velocity and walks going in the wrong direction.
  24. nicksaviking
    I don't see much value in Sweeney as the 4th or 5th OF. If the team is going the AAAA route, at least Mastroianni or Benson might be able to swipe a bag as a pinch runner and both are likely more attractive options to go from 1st to 3rd or home. Sweeney has no speed or power, it's not like you'd ever want to call him off the bench.
  25. nicksaviking
    I fear most that Arcia's "attitude" is going to be a major factor in his future with this club. Frankly, I could care less if he's arrogant, abrasive or sulking, but I know the team has a history of caring. I get it, I don't like those kinds of co-workers. However I DO have those kinds of co-workers, most of us who work with more than a handful of people do. The rest of us have to suck it up and live with it. Neither Arcia's strikeouts nor lack of walks appeared to be a major issue in the minors, I would really like to find out if he can meet his potential, I still feel like he hasn't been giving a full shot. And his defense? So what, Torii Hunter proved last year that you can play RF at Target Field from a lawn chair, particularly if you have a decent CF standing next to you.
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