Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

ewen21

Verified Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    2,269

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    1

 Content Type 

Profiles

News

Tutorials & Help

Videos

2023 Twins Top Prospects Ranking

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

Free Agent & Trade Rumors

Guides & Resources

Minnesota Twins Players Project

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by ewen21

  1. ewen21
    Rock oh ball deli.
  2. ewen21
    We signed free agent relievers last winter. We could have easily done the same thing and had the same lousy results. Relievers are generally a crapshoot. Very few of them are consistent year to year so I can't pretend to know who we need to get in the pen. I suppose we could have thrown money and Juerys Familia at guys like Andrew Miller and that would have made everyone happy, but how they perform is in 2019 is anyone's guess and some of the best relievers in the game in 2019 can be guys no one here would ever know to name. This is why I will leave the complaining about the pen to others. My focus is on our young position players and the rotation right now.
  3. ewen21
    I don't understand all the consternation about the bullpen while our system has developed practically no starting pitching for over a dozen seasons until Berrios finally emerged. Isn't this a far bigger issue than us not raiding the reliever market this offseason? TO me it is. We rolled the dice trying to build our bullpen last season and some of the deals looked good at first and they turned out to be crap. Relievers are not a set commodity. THey are so up and freakin down it's ridiculous. See Brad Lidge. Relievers, for the most part, are failed starters. To carry on about getting veteran reliever X and Y seems like a waste of time when we can't develop pitching ourselves. Maybe I am not on this bandwagon to grouse about adding relievers is that I am not expecting too much out of this team. I want to see certain players develop and then if that happens I would like us to be more aggressive at the trade deadline. I know some posters hate this philosophy, but quite frankly, signing a Boxberger or some other ham and egger reliever isn't going to get me pumped and it won't turn us around. What is the solution? Dump most of the bullpen and replace them with new guys? I like the idea of Romero starting in the pen. I will hope Hildy and Reed can do better than they did last year. I am not going to go crazy over the pen. In 2002 we had Romero, Hawkins, Fiori (and Santana some of the time) all emerge to make for a solid pen. Very few relievers are to be counted on to perform at a consistent level year after year. I am far more worried about the rotation and everyone else should be as well
  4. ewen21
    Hard to say Hildy or others like him need to "bounce back" when he only pitched 42 major league innings prior to last season
  5. ewen21
    Yup. Lose.
  6. ewen21
    No thank you. Why look bother analyzing. And when you say things like this: Fangraphs has never advocated Dozier to receive anything approaching $46 mil for a single year of his services What are you really saying about this methodology I need to look at more closely? To what end? If it doesn't serve too deal terms applicable to reality I cannot bother with it. Moreover, how can you use the Michael Brantley example over and over again to give it validity when you say what is in bold above? I will try to answer all your questions but you have ignored all of mine thus far Have a good day. Maybe we can pick this up next week. I have things do as I have an extended weekend and places to go
  7. ewen21
    As great as Mookie Betts was last year are we going so insane as to believe he is worth $83 million for a 1 year deal in the open market?
  8. ewen21
    You are isolating a detail of little consequence and ignoring the fact that I already acknowledged 20 million was Max's alleged value in the market. Why keep pursuing this?
  9. ewen21
    FWIW, he would likely be on the sideline with Manny and Bryce waiting to get his money. Seven years for Max Kepler after last year? The Twins clearly like him and trust him. I can't see him getting that kind of security from an organization that didn't raise him. This contract is unique. We could benefit enormously from it, but I cannot agree with anyone who says he'd get 7 years in the open market. Not until these kinds of contracts for 25 year old guys who hit .224 the season prior become the norm.
  10. ewen21
    I did clearly express this value assumes Max in the FA market so it is perplexing to me why you would feel the need to explain this to me And it is still the average salary. If you want to subtract out all players that are pre-free agent eligible you actually further my case
  11. ewen21
    Player salaries resemble to me the way homes were priced in the mid-2000s. The way the stock market was as we moved toward Y2K. The writing has been on the wall for a while. These contracts just don't work and corrections happen. FanGraphs has a valuation model that needs to be adjusted because in no way does it reflect REALITY when it comes to what players get on the open market as free agents. This begs the question..... How much longer did player salaries need to increase at ridiculous rates? Average player salaries increased by over 100% from 2001 to 2015. Was this supposed to continue until the end of time?
  12. ewen21
    I could care less about the methodology used to arrive at this absurdity. When they are telling me that Dozier "could be worth" 46,000,000 dollars in the open market for a one year deal I stop listening. It has nothing to do with reality no matter how clever and detailed it might be.
  13. ewen21
    A right fielder averages about 2 putouts a game. They can go weeks without having an opportunity to make a great play in even then it isn't a guarantee it's a game changer. Defensive value among major league outfielders really is difficult to pin down. A great outfielder doesn't get to do that much more than an average one, whereas a great hitter has so so many more opportunities to shine. Defense is definitely important, but a single player rarely gets to change games with his glove and Max Kepler isn't that guy to me. I became increasingly concerned with his bat. A .224 average or whatever he hit last year isn't good from any angle. Kind of odd that he gets this contract after that kind of season, but whatever
  14. ewen21
    The average major league salary is a shade over 4 million a year. By the rationale (or lack of it) provided through FanGraphs' valuation system Max is worth roughly five times more than the average player if he were to step into the FA market. In reality, I don't think there is a team in the league that would have handed Max the deal the Twins gave him. It isn't an astronomical amount of money, but I cannot envision some other team handing him a 7 year deal. This is comes with him being a known commodity and generally well-liked within the organization. They are betting on Max, and that is a good thing for Max. He knows how to "play the game" and be a good soldier so he gets his deal. As far as FanGraphs money goes, it is like the defunct Italian Lira to me. I had a few friends go to Germany/Italy for several weeks in the fall of 1984. They drank some towns dry in Italy and spend like $10 American dollars in the process. It was too hard to believe, but that was how the currency was valued.
  15. ewen21
    It was precisely this kind of thought process that generated the notion last winter that Machado and Harper could be signing $400 million dollar contracts. The kind of thinking that has Machado and Harper both believing they shouldn't take anything less than $300 in guaranteed money.
  16. ewen21
    That is just the thing. FanGraphs disgustingly overrates player value, in my opinion. If you check Brian Dozier as an example he was "according to FanGraphs" worth $40 million and $46 million in 2016 and 2017 (if he were a FA in the open market). How does this jibe with reality? The player valuations based off WAR seems completely arbitrary to me. While WAR is an indicator I like to see it is not infallible and should not be viewed as a singular confirmation of how much a player is worth. What exactly is the logic here? It starts to become far too removed from any kind of common sense and more about numbers. Seems to me in this valuation they assume "average player" has a WAR of 1.0 so that should be in proportion to the average salary. They set that at 7 million and for every WAR point they score you multiply by 7 million? Whatever they do to value Dozier over $40 million in two different seasons says all you need to know about it. I appreciate everything else about FanGraphs, however, this valuation system is utterly absurd. Maddening actually.
  17. ewen21
    Fangraphs is brilliant in many ways, but the least brilliant thing about it is their valuation system in regards to dollar value based off the player's WAR. They had Dozier at and above 40 million. In what fictional world can that be justified? Completely absurd What is important is that Kepler is making significantly more than Polanco in his deal and I just don't get that
  18. ewen21
    I don't understand why people suddenly the Twins to spend like a top 10 team. These are two analytics guys. The whole premise behind bringing them in was to build a competitive cost-effective club. They are not going to take costly risks by definition. About the only time they might is if this team has a more stable core. Not sure why so many are challenged by this notion
  19. ewen21
    Again. If not a single person said a thing about his performance he would still have to dig himself of the hole he has dug.
  20. ewen21
    Not sure what you mean by that. He had a .544 OPS in 382 at Rochester last year. There have been concerns about his glove and how he can hold up to a long season. I had a much more positive view of him before the his callup to Rochester, but after that performance I am not so sure how can take a glass half full view of him at this point in time. If not a single person said BOO about him he would still need to dig himself of this hole that he is in now.
  21. ewen21
    Well, that is your opinion. They have generated so much money because they have expanded the product and priced it out nearly to it's limit. Now a correction in salaries is happening. Do you feel that is unfair to these players?
  22. ewen21
    And everyone was saying BUY REAL ESTATE in 2004. How did that workout. This endless bounty of risning salaries is ending. And it needs to.
  23. ewen21
    Athletes and entertainers make way WAY too much. They do not solve problems and we can stand to divorce ourselves from the lunacy if they cannot accept a period of austerity. Every other field has faced it and if they want to cry about it then that is not a good look
  24. ewen21
    Because no entertainer, athlete deserves to make the money these guys now make. Do you realize how much salaries have increased over the last 25 years? Do we continue to endorse this insanity or is it time for a reality check? I think this correction was inevitable and these dudes really need a reality check. As far as the owners go, I do not support their side BUT they are the ones incurring the risk owning the franchise. Same with any privately owned business. They ultimately decide how much their employees should earn. These guys make enough. I ask again.....are you OK with the next 25 years being like the last 25? Consider how jacked up cable bills have gotten, how much it costs for a family to attend a game, etc....Name me a union that is more powerful from the MLPA. Name me a union that gives that kind of protection to their constituents. This is the second time you hit me with this. If you want to demonize the owners and absolve players from all responsibility in this salary ridiculousness then we will never agree so I will read your response and consider whether or not I should respond. Not interested in an acrimonious exchange since I do respect your baseball knowledge. I just don't like the way you absolve the MLPA. Them and the agents can kick and scream about this and even go on strike. See where that lands them this time. It is a different world and they need to wake up
  25. ewen21
    I hope Harper is sitting on the sidelines during ST and is forced to sign a contract significantly less than what Washington offered him
×
×
  • Create New...