Minny505

As you have likely seen at this point, the Twins signed Infielder Donovan Solano to a 1 year, $2 million dollar deal. When you first look at this deal, you may have thought that Solano is a similar role to Kyle Farmer and seems to be redundant. While there may be some overlap, I think there are a few reasons where both guys still get a good amount of at bats this year, especially against lefties. 
So let's compare Solano to a few other guys that I saw many people mention as targets for the Twins, Luke Voit and Yuli Gurriel. One reason the ladder two guys were brought up was their ability to hit lefties, so let's look at that first. 
Luke Voit versus lefties in 2022 had the following line: .174/.298/.271. I will concede that these stats are lower than his career .236/.329/.439 line against lefties. 
Yuli Gurriel versus lefties in 2022 had the following line: .265/.298/.441. These are slightly lower than his career .282/.333/.474 line against lefties as well. 
As for the Twins most recent acquisition, here are his stats versus lefties: 
Donovan Solano had a slash line of .301/.348/.422 line versus lefties in 2022. His career line is .282/.322/.389. 
The next thing I wanted to compare these players on was their Walk%, K% and their projected WAR going forward. 
Walk %: 
Voit: 10.2%
Gurriel: 5.7%
Solano: 5.7%
K %: 
Voit: 28.5%
Gurriel: 11.2%
Solano: 18.0%
Projected WAR (using ZiPS): 
Voit: 0.8 WAR
Gurriel: 1.5 WAR
Solano: 1.2 WAR
Seeing these stats, you might try to say that Gurriel would be the best choice of the three for a fit. The reason I think this is not the case can be summed up in one word: versatility. 
Donovan Solano can not only play 1B, but can also play 2B, 3B, and will likely get some ABs as a DH as well, against lefties specifically. Gurriel at this point in his career is a 1B with the ability to DH of course as well. Voit is a 1B/DH as well. 
Not to overlook Solano's ability to hit against righties as well. He doesn't hit righties super well, but can at least give you a good AB if needed. He has a career slash line of .276/.329/.367 against RHP.
One thing to remember is Solano is a depth piece who, similar to Kyle Farmer, will play mostly against LHP with occasional starts coming against RHP. Solano's versatility will also be helpful in case someone gets dinged up (which will happen at some point) and as a potential defensive replacement depending on who is in the game as well. Solano hits a lot of line drives, as evidence by his career .332 BABIP. 
I'd like to make this clear, I don't think Donovan Solano is an all star level player, but I think he's a solid depth piece that gives manager Rocco Baldelli another option this coming year. The Twins depth is much different than the past years, and hopefully this means they learned their lesson regarding not being too top heavy on the roster and not having as much depth. 
Let me know what you all think of the Solano signing. Who do you think this bumps off the roster? My gut reaction says Larnach, but maybe things change before opening day (perhaps a trade?). 

Much of this off-season has been frustrating for Twins fans. Once again, the Twins failed to pick up a bona fide ace to front the rotation. They did however pull off a major coup by re-signing Carlos Correa for a contract valued will below what many predicted he would get going into the off-season. They also solidified the depth in the rotation by trading fan-favorite Luis Arraez for Pablo Lopez. As we approach Spring Training, where do the Twins stand? 
Let us take a look at predicting the Twins' record based on WAR. Last year, the Twins totaled 36.1 WAR as a team, resulting in a 78-84 record. There is a strong correlation between team WAR and overall wins. 
https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2018/12/26/18155292/correlation-war-wins-pythagorean-expectation-second-order-wins-third-order-wins
A team constructed of all 0 WAR players is said to be around a 50 win team. It could be argued that the Twins under-performed based on their season WAR total last year and probably should have been in the low to mid-80's for wins. A team war total of 45 or better should get the team to a win total in the 90's.  So how do the changes made by the front office equate to 45+ WAR for the 2023 Twins? Below is a projection for individual WAR values for the upcoming season. Each player listed below is followed by a projected number of games and their associated WAR (based on b-WAR). 
Starting IF (12.8 Combined WAR) Vazquez (105, 1.2), Kirilloff (120, 1.5), Polanco (140, 3.0), Correa (140, 5.6) Miranda (130, 1.5). The question marks here are Kirlloff and Miranda. Neither is projected to add huge numbers to the team's total and players such as Kyle Farmer and Joey Gallo can mitigate those two. Both Kirlloff and Miranda have the potential to produce higher WAR values than projected.
Starting OF/DH (12.6 Comined WAR) Gallo (120, 1.8), Buxton (60 CF, 60 DH, 5.0), Kepler (120, 1.8), Taylor (120, 2.5), Larnach (110, 1.5). There are several question marks here, starting with Gallo. The Twins obviously feel Gallo still has some of what he showed in Texas.  Kepler, Gallo and Larnach are all projected to be similar and if one slips, Gordon gives some additional protection. Having Michaeal A. Taylor to play 100 games in CF allows the Twins to keep Buxton healthy and potentially play 120 games in 2023. This could be done by a rotation of something like this every eight games:  CF, DH, Bench, CF, DH, CF, Bench, DH. Obviously projecting 120 G from Buxton is a gamble, but he did put up 4.0 WAR in 92 G in 2022.
Bench (1.9 Combined WAR) Jeffers (55, 0.7), Farmer (100, 0.7), Gordon (60, 0.5). While this may not appear a strength, this may be where this year's Twins may be set up to improve on 2022. They appear to have more depth and players not listed (Wallner, Celestino, Garlick, Lewis, Julien and Lee) potentially able to come up and fill in as needed.
Rotation (12.8 Combined WAR) Gray (3.0), P.Lopez (3.0), Ryan (2.4), Mahle/Maeda/Ober (4.4). Projecting games here was a bit of a challenge. Gray and Lopez's WAR values are in the range of their past two season and Ryan's projects a slight increase from last season (2.2). Mahle, Maeda and Ober all have health concerns, but the hope is that they can hold down the fort between the three of them.  Having Varland, Winder and Woods-Richardson in AAA as players ready step in also mitigates a huge drop in WAR production. There is no "horse" raising this group's WAR, just a bunch of solid contributors.
Bullpen (6.8 Combined WAR)  Duran (2.5), J.Lopez (1.5), Jax (1.0), Thielbar (0.7) Moran (0.7), Alcala (0.4), Pagan (0), Megill (0). The biggest concerns here are Lopez producing closer to what he did in Baltimore as well as Pagan and Megill being used in situations that do not produce negative WAR. This is one area the front office could still help the 2023 Twins. A Michael Fullmer signing makes a ton of sense.
Altogether, this projection gives the Twins 46.9 WAR as a group, enough to push them to 90+ wins for 2023. This should put them solidly into playoff consideration with the new playoff format. While some of the projections may seem optimistic, it could be argued that they are all well within historical performances and allowing for some development from younger players. This squad seems better situated to deal injuries than the past couple of years. The Twins have above average  backups for the three toughest defensive positions (Jeffers, Farmer and Taylor). While there may have been moves that the front office could have made this year to make this team better, it seems as though the floor for this squad is as high as we've seen for a few years. 
 
 

The 2022 Minnesota Twins looked like they were destined for success. They had great chemistry and were winning ballgames, they looked closer to their 2019 form than the disappointing 2021 form we had seen the year prior. However, injuries started to take place and the ballclub started to lose games. As disappointing as this was, we got to see a bunch of new prospects. Promising flashes from players like Jose Miranda and Nick Gordon had us itching for 2023. Now that opening day is less than 60 days away, here are some realistic player goals for some Twins Hitters. 
Byron Buxton 
Buxton’s career has always been riddled with health questions. He has played in over 100 games once, and that was back in 2018 when he played 140 games. The results were favorable as he won the Gold Glove and stole 28 bases. Last year we saw the best year of Buxton’s career, as he was named an AL All-Star, had a 138 OPS+, and actually gained some national recognition. The problem? He played in 92 games. If Buxton stays healthy, he is a consensus top-10 player and a huge part of the Twins' success.
Goals: Show you can stay healthy and play in 120 games, 80 of them in CF. Maintain an OPS of over .800 and hit 30 home runs.

Carlos Correa 
The Twins signed Correa to essentially a one-year contract last offseason, and expectations were set high. Correa struggled in the first two months, posting a .633 OPS. Was it the cold? The new home and clubhouse? Just a random bad stretch? Who knows, but he quickly recovered and played like a high-level All-Star for the rest of the season. Now that Correa is here long term, he should be one of the ultimate factors to the Twins success not only this year but in the next five.
Goals: Prove that you are worth over 30 million. Finish top 10 in MVP voting and be a finalist for Gold Glove. Help develop and mentor young guys like; Royce Lewis, Jose Miranda, Brooks Lee, and Edouard Julien.
Jose Miranda 
Although he was never a top-of-the-line prospect, Miranda had a lot of excitement last year after his breakout 2021 season. Miranda was called up in May and, well, let’s just say he struggled. He posted a .532 OPS and eventually got sent back down to AAA. When he got another shot in June, he didn’t put it to waste. Miranda impressed in June, then impressed even more in July, and remained a steady anchor for the Twins lineup for the rest of the year. Miranda showed very promising flashes in 2022 and if he continues to develop, he should be a core part of this franchise for years to come. 
Goals: Show that you can stay at the hot corner. Prove yourself as a 4-5 hitter in the lineup and post a .780 OPS.
Alex Kirilloff
The former first-round pick had a lot of questions heading into the 2022 season. Will he stay healthy? The ultimate answer was no. Kirilloff has had constant injury issues, specifically ones with his wrist. If AK can stay healthy, he can cement himself as a key piece into the unproven Twins outfield. 
Goals: Prove that your wrist won’t be an issue in the future. Play in 100 games this year and prove that you have your power back by hitting 15 home runs. Post an OPS of over .780 and show that you belong in the future of this team.

Joey Gallo 
Joey Gallo was a star in Arlington, and he didn’t start to decline until his trade to New York. Some blame it on the pressure of a big market team. If this is true, Gallo could have a huge comeback season. So far, it seems like Gallo is enjoying Minnesota. If he can control his strikeouts and utilize the shift ban, he can be put back on the map for MLB stars.
Goals: Be the person you were in Texas. Be flexible on defense as you may see some 1B. Maintain a .200 average, have an OPS+ of over 100, and hit 30 Home Runs.
Nick Gordon 
Gordon was almost forgotten about as a prospect as some major injuries derailed him from stardom. Once a top prospect, he had a ton of upside, especially with his speed. Gordon got a ton of opportunities all over the field and proved himself clutch late in the season. Now with a guaranteed shot in the big leagues, Gordon finds himself with an opportunity to become a full-time big league player. 
Goals: Keep your OPS+ above league average and steal 10 bases. Prove to be more level at the plate: raise your BB% and try to minimize your strikeouts.
Royce Lewis 
Lewis was the first overall pick for the Minnesota Twins back in 2017. Lewis thrived until his 2019 season when he had his first down year. He rebounded winning AFL MVP in late 2019. Due to the canceled 2020 MiLB season and an ACL tear in 2021, Lewis had to be sidelined for two years. Finally getting back on the field in 2022, Lewis Dazzled in AAA and got a call-up. He rocketed past his expectations and looked like that first overall pick that we had seen prior. After suffering his second ACL tear in two years, Lewis is set to come back sometime in the mid-summer and has a chance to prove himself as a big-league player. 
Goals: Stay healthy through the 2023 season. Show that your 2022 stint wasn’t a fluke. Have an OPS+ over league average and a positive OAA. Show that you still have your speed and steal at least five bases.
 
These goals may be a bit aggressive, but I feel like these players have a lot to prove in 2023. Correa said he wanted to build a dynasty in Minnesota, and these players get to decide if that comes true this season.
This is my first blog post with Twins Daily, so please give some feedback! Keep your eyes peeled for 2023 Pitcher Goals. Thank you!

It's prospect season again. Pitchers and catchers will soon report, so our effort at Twinsdaily to cover the minor leagues will fire up once again, and that includes our prospect rankings.
The system looks surprisingly strong. Despite a flurry of trades over the last 18 months or so, the Twins still have a top nucleus of elite talent, and the franchise enjoys solid upper-level pitching depth. They're a little low on gamechangers at the elite positions—centerfield and shortstop—but so is basically every system, and Minnesota could easily cover that deficiency with a healthy season from Emmanuel Rodriguez and continued development from their two DSL stars. Remember: tier matters more than ranking.
Royce Lewis 6’2” / 200 (Prev: 1) Age: 23
Position: SS
Highest level reached: MLB
Nothing has changed my view of Royce Lewis since I last updated my list. He’s a potentially franchise-altering talent with a frustrating lack of baseball in his recent resume. Lewis’ short playing time in 2022 was a revelation, as he checked significant boxes—his ability to play shortstop and his hitting prowess—before the brutal knee injury cut off his time playing baseball. A much quieter batting stance appears to have unlocked his hitting potential. I’m looking forward to seeing what he can do when he is healthy again.
Brooks Lee 6’2” / 205 (Prev: 2) Age: 21
Position: SS/3B
Highest level reached: AA
If you think Brooks Lee deserves to be in the one spot, I can’t argue with you; Lee is an incredibly safe bet to hit well, no matter where his defensive home is. Despite being drafted just seven months ago, Lee reached AA, playing in a handful of games for Wichita before calling it a season; he smoked A+ ball with a 140 wRC+. His immense hitting pedigree, combined with his lineage as a coach’s son indeed points towards an ideal makeup package that should serve him well as he transitions to big leaguer. He’ll probably impact the 2023 Twins and will undoubtedly affect the team in 2024.                                                        
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Emmanuel Rodriguez 5’10” / 210 (Prev: 4) Age: 19
Position: OF
Highest level reached: A
Potentially the most dynamic prospect in Minnesota’s system, Emmanuel Rodriguez’s nuclear 2022 fell violently when he tore his ACL in June. Still, Rodriguez walked an absurd 28.6% of the time while slugging .551 in a league that favors pitchers. Granted, it was just a 199 plate appearance sample. Still, I’m excited to see Rodriguez return to action healthy, and he could quickly become the Twins’ best prospect sometime next season.
Noah Miller 6’1” / 190 (Prev: 3)    Age: 20
Position: SS
Highest level reached: A
I am too high on Noah Miller; I will remain too high on Noah Miller until his hitting falls entirely off a cliff. Prospects who are locks to play shortstop do not grow on trees—at least none that I know—and Miller’s bat is just good enough to keep him a valuable contributor at the position. If it clicks offensively—and his strike zone awareness is already elite—we’re looking at a potential successor to Carlos Correa in a few years; he’ll need to gain more power, though.
Marco Raya 6’1” / 170 (Prev: 8) Age: 20
Position: RHP
Highest level reached: A
“[Marco] Raya’s slider is Charon, come to ferry batters back to the dugout,” wrote Jeffery Paternostro for Baseball Prospectus in November—a perfect sentence. Raya carries the same risk all pitchers do—injury potential, a future in the bullpen—compounded by his smaller frame. But if he can stay healthy, Raya could vault into the top of the Twins rotation, dominating hitters with a compelling four-pitch mix and a bulldog mentality. Raya struck out 28.9% of batters over 65 innings with Fort Myers in 2022. 
Jose Salas 6’2” / 191 (Prev: n/a) Age: 19
Position: SS
Highest level reached: A+
A new name! A critical, underrated addition to the Pablo López trade, Jose Salas adds another intriguing infield wrinkle to a system bursting with “people who can play shortstop,” not necessarily “shortstops.” A super young 19 in A+, Salas hit like an overwhelmed prospect, but some AFL seasoning plus an off-season of recovery could cleanse him anew. Salas hit .267/.355/.421 in A ball before his promotion in 2022. 
Edouard Julien 6’2” / 195 (Prev: 7) Age: 23
Position: 2B
Highest level reached: AA
If this were a list of favorite prospects, Edouard Julien would be top three, potentially sitting at the top spot. What’s not to love? The lefty smoked AA Wichita with a .300/.441/.490 line and then hit—and I’m not kidding here—.400/.563/.686 in the Arizona Fall League before ending his terror on pitchers for the season. He lacks a defensive home, but a team would move Heaven and Earth to find a spot for that bat somewhere. Minnesota added him to the 40-man roster this past season; we will probably see Julien in the majors soon.                                                                                                                                                                                                                  
Connor Prielipp 6’2” / 210 (Prev: 5) Age: 22
Position: LHP
Highest level reached: n/a
Who is John Galt Connor Prielipp? The baseball world has seen startlingly little from Prielipp, as injuries limited his time with Alabama to seven starts. Still, he owns a mid-90s fastball and a power slider when healthy; 2023 will illuminate his prospect status.
Simeon Woods Richardson 6’3” / 210 (Prev: 6) Age: 22
Position: RHP
Highest level reached: MLB
Maybe one of the more crucial cogs in Minnesota’s 2023 pitching machine, Simeon Woods Richardson appears well-set to impact the major league roster soon. Armed with unique fastball traits, Woods Richardson held his own in a harsh Texas League environment in 2022, then torched AAA at the end of the year for fun. He earned enough respect to make his first Twins start—a five-inning outing notable in that he’ll never have to debut again; the nerves are behind him. Still somehow just 22, Woods Richardson struck out 27% of batters in the minors last season.
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Louie Varland 6’1” / 205 (Prev: 10) Age: 25
Position: RHP
Highest level reached: MLB
Louie Varland should rank higher on this list, but something in his profile doesn’t fully click for me. His fastball is excellent—a real jumper he can use in any count because of his low angle. But none of his other pitches stood out as difference makers, turning Varland into a one-pitch pitcher. His slider and changeup command was non-existent, and batters brutalized his cutter. That’s a negative paragraph for the supposed 10th-best prospect on the team, but that’s what I’ve seen from Varland, and until it changes, I remain bearish on his starting capabilities. 
Austin Martin 6’0” / 185 (Prev: 13) Age: 23
Position: SS/OF
Highest level reached: AA
Austin Martin’s wild 2022 bounced him more than any other player around this list. After slugging a dreadful .315 in a hitter’s league, Martin crushed in the Arizona Fall League, showcasing his older, successful mechanics in a dramatic redemption arc. He’s not a shortstop—that much is obvious now, but if his bat is back, then the Twins could have a quality 3-win utility player capable of playing a variety of positions. 2023 will be a crucial test. 
Matt Wallner 6’5” / 220 (Prev: 9) Age: 25
Position: OF
Highest level reached: MLB
It’s hard to hold 18 major league games against a guy, but Matt Wallner’s Adventures in the Outfield stunk enough to deeply sour me on any notions of him replacing Max Kepler soon. The Twins appear to agree. With approximately 30,000 outfielders ahead of him, it would take a series of great tragedies before Wallner earns significant MLB playing time soon. Still, he shaved points off his strikeout rate in 2022—the biggest knock against him—and he could ride his outstanding power stroke to an elongated playing career. 
Yasser Mercedes 6’2” / 175 (Prev: 11) Age: 18
Position: OF
Highest level reached: DSL
Yasser Mercedes did things as a 17-year-old that teenagers aren’t supposed to do. Yes, it was in the noisy environment that is the DSL, but 30 steals with a .555 slugging percentage is impressive, no matter the level. Mercedes will likely play in rookie ball in 2023, and I imagine his prospect package will become much more apparent in 2024 when he’ll still be just 19. 
David Festa 6’6” / 185 (Prev: 20) Age: 22
Position: RHP
Highest level reached: A+
One of the most “pop-uppiest” prospect in the Twins system in 2022, David Festa commands a tremendous fastball/slider combo that torched hitters in the low minors. Although his numbers dropped following a promotion to A+ ball, Festa punctuated his season with a 10-strikeout performance over six shutout innings in a playoff game against the Cubs. We will see how Festa pitches in a tougher environment in 2023.
Misael Urbina 6’0” / 190 (Prev: 12) Age: 20
Position: OF
Highest level reached: A
Misael Urbina is an excellent example of why prospect evaluations are a snapshot in time, not the law in written form: he couldn’t hit for any power in 2021 but re-played A ball again in 2022 and showcased a much-improved power stroke. Soon to be 21, Urbina should unleash even more strength this year, potentially shooting him further up the list. 
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Brent Headrick 6’6” / 235 (Prev: 14) Age: 25
Position: LHP
Highest level reached: AA
A surprise 40-man addition, Brent Headrick’s numbers are perhaps more impressive than his raw tools. His breaker is a bit of a looping pitch, which MLB hitters–especially righties—could lay off of, but his fastball lands perfectly at the top of the zone, and his command is good enough that the breaker shape may not matter. He will probably impact the Twins in 2023—though it’s unclear in what capacity—and he could become a regular, reliable lefty swingman. 
Jordan Balazovic 6’5” / 215 (Prev: 15) Age: 24
Position: RHP
Highest level reached: AAA
How do you rank Jordan Balazovic? Long considered the promised arm, delivered by our wonderful friends Up North, Balazovic faced a nightmare 2022 season, one so hideous that I don’t even want to post any stats from it. The Twins claimed he was healthy, but such a shocking drop-off in performance is almost unbelievable; hopefully 2023 will be a kinder year for Balazovic.
Ronny Henriquez 5’10” / 155 (Prev: 17) Age: 22
Position: RHP
Highest level reached: MLB
One of the more exciting arms in Minnesota’s system, Ronny Henriquez spent a few months getting bullied by AAA hitters before turning around and delivering an adequate July through end-of-season performance. Armed with a fastball, slider, and changeup, Henriquez will pepper well-commanded off-speed pitches around the zone, hopefully enticing the hitter to bite before the end of the at-bat. His issue? A fastball that ends up either 1. In the heart of the strike zone 2. In the gap (if he’s lucky) 3. In the hands of a fan sitting in right-center field. Whether Henriquez can improve his heater will determine his success at the major league level. 
Noah Cardenas 6’1” / 195 (Prev: 18) Age: 23
Position: C
Highest level reached: A
I am still trying to understand why Noah Cardenas is not more well-regarded as a prospect. Catchers who hit for a 146 wRC+ aren’t common, and while he was older than your average A-ball hitter, I feel confident that Cardenas should continue to hit as he elevates through the system. Although catcher development is often strange, so he may run into weird pitfalls and unusual traps that keep him from improving linearly. 
Jose Rodriguez 6’2” / 196 (Prev: Unranked) Age: 17
Position: OF
Highest level reached: DSL
Like Yasser Mercedes, Jose Rodriguez is a 17-year-old whose only time in professional baseball is in the DSL—a sign that all hype should involve grains of salt and the such. Still, as a player even younger than most DSL hitters, Rodriguez pounded 13 homers and slugged over .600. He’s about as far away from the majors as possible. Still, you should keep his name in mind over the next few years as a potential big-league powerhouse. 
Cody Laweryson 6’4” / 205 (Prev: 23) Age: 24
Position: RHP
Highest level reached: AA
A personal favorite, Cody Laweryson prefers to trick hitters with his pitching motion: a lanky, swan-like delivery that combines the sudden violence of Carter Capps with the grace of Joe Ryan. Lawyerson crushed AA, striking out over 30% of hitters while holding an ERA just over 1.00. The Twins left him unprotected in the rule 5 draft, and no other team claimed him, giving Laweryson another year to prove that his play isn’t a fluke.
Cole Sands 6’3” / 215 (Prev: 16) Age: 25
Position: RHP
Highest level reached: MLB
Cole Sands owns one of the nastiest pitches in Minnesota’s system: a whirling breaking ball, here to alter planes and send batters home wondering if they even saw the pitch. The issue? The offering moves so much that Sands has difficulty commanding the pitch. He mixes in an effective splitter—which actually outperformed his breaker by xwOBA during his time in the majors—but his fastball drags down his profile. Sands might be a kitchen sink reliever if he doesn’t improve his heater. 
Blayne Enlow 6’3” / 170 (Prev: 14) Age: 23
Position: RHP
Highest level reached: AA
Blayne Enlow pitched in an entire season for the first time since 2019, and his results were mixed. He struck out 24.8% of hitters—which is good—but walked 11.6% of them—which is not good. The Twins DFA’d him earlier in the offseason, but after no team claimed him, Enlow will have another year in the system to prove he was worth his high draft pick. 
Tanner Schobel 5’10” / 170 (Prev: 27) Age: 21
Position: 2B
Highest level reached: A
The Twins sent Tanner Schobel on the fast track, pushing their 2022 2nd-round pick to A Ball, where he held his own. Although lacking in power, Schobel could carve out a career as a contact/OBP/defense threat capable of putting together a 3 WAR season if everything works out; many teams could use a player like that. 
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Alejandro Hidalgo 6’1” / 160 (Prev: n/a) Age: 19
Position: RHP
Highest level reached: A
A newcomer, Alexander Hidalgo joined the Twins in the Gio Urshela trade. The Angels handled him with kid gloves, as he didn’t touch 40 innings despite making 10 starts. The owner of a plus changeup, Hidalgo’s pitch mix is otherwise unimpressive, but he could grow into an off-speed specialist if he finds more consistency with his curveball; his fastball lacks crucial characteristics. 
Matt Canterino 6’2” / 222 (Prev: Unranked) Age: 25
Position: RHP
Highest level reached: AA
I highly doubt that Matt Canterino will even become an effective starter for the Twins. His minor league innings total is barren, and the righty looks to be standing in a long line of Rice products driven into the ground by an indifferent coaching staff. Still—and this is the only thing keeping him on the list—his electric stuff could allow him to live as a 1-2 inning reliever.
Alex Isola 6’1” / 215 (Prev: 24) Age: 24
Position: C/1B
Highest level reached: AA
A 29th-round pick, Alex Isola has hit well at every step in his minor league journey. He owns a well-rounded hitting package, trading off a touch of power for excellent plate control (13.0% walk rate vs. 18.2% K rate at AA), and could find himself playing some first base for the Twins if a few injuries take out key players. 
Cesar Lares 6’0” / 155 (Prev: 28) Age: 19
Position: LHP
Highest level reached: DSL
Another DSL prospect, Cesar Lares crushed his competition in 2022, holding an impressive 2.23 FIP over 46 innings. Again, he’s literally a teenager; we don’t know much about how he’ll perform against older, tougher competition, but he appears to be on the right track. Keep his name in mind. 
Aaron Sabato 6’2” / 230 (Prev: 29) Age: 23
Position: 1B
Highest level reached: AA
For two years now, Aaron Sabato has done just enough to keep his name in these prospect conversations, but time is running out for the former 1st-round pick. After hitting well at A+ ball, AA smacked into Sabato like a truck; whether he can recover in 2023 will potentially define his time as a Twins prospect.
Yunior Severino 6’1” / 189 (Prev: 25) Age: 23
Position: 2B/3B
Highest level reached: AA
A post-hype prospect received after the Braves got caught with their hands in the cookie jar, Yunior Severino broke out with big numbers at A+ ball before falling back to earth at AA. We will see if he can rebound at a higher level.
Honorable mentions:
Brayan Medina, RHP:
Brayan Medina came over in the Chris Paddack trade and struggled to throw strikes in his time at Rookie Ball. He can touch the mid-90s and works well off a curveball.
Danny De Andrade, 3B/SS:
Danny De Andrade is an all-around player, lacking in one elite category but doing everything mostly well. He has yet to break out of rookie ball and could burst with his first (probable) playing time in full-season ball. 
Kala’i Rosario, OF:
Kala’i Rosario strikes out far too much, but he has good power for a 20-year-old and could improve with extra seasoning.
Michael Helman, 2B/OF:
Michael Helman hasn’t exploded with an overwhelming season yet, but he’s snuck his way into AAA, and his overall package could serve him well if the Twins need to call him up.
Alerick Soularie, 2B/OF:
Alerick Soularie still hasn’t tapped into his power potential, which makes his high strikeout rate hard to stomach. Still, he could figure it out any day now and shoot back up this list.
 

The Dynamic Duo have brought a creativity towards acquiring prospects that even Terry Ryan who was the master of acquiring prospects never thought of.
The first example is one of my favorites.  With Ohtani on the market and notifying the Twins they would not be one of the finalists for his services Falvine went and traded their extra international spending cap space for 2 prospects.  They traded 1 million in cap space to the Anaheim Angels of Los Angeles for Pearson a 2nd round draft pick and OF.  The Twins also traded 1 million in cap space to the Mariners of Seattle for David Banuelos a 5th round draft pick and C.  Banuelos is still with the Twins and in AAA.  I hope to see him get in some games with the Twins just to make these trades a success, But we got essentially 2 high draft picks for nothing.
Another example was in the draft when the Twins followed suit from the Astros example and saved money on Royce Lewis to be able to sign another draft pick in the third round who had first round talent.  Today Enlow is one of our top 30 prospects in the system and being creative is how we landed him.  Granted he lost some luster as a prospect because of the lost 2020 season then Tommy John surgery in 2021, but 2023 should be the year he bounces back from that completely so hopefully we have another mid rotation starter being developed here. 
The trade deadline sell off.  Lets face it we were all mad when the Twins threw In the towel and traded several fan favorite players at the time for prospects.  The 2 big names were RP Presley and IF Escobar.  We netted Alcala, Duran, and Celestino from those trades, however.  The trade of Berrios was unpopular as well and we received Martin and SWR.  2 of our top 15 prospects.  For Cruz we got Ryan and Strotman who was a top 30 prospect before regressing. 
As much as I didn’t like the sell offs I did like this next technique.  Making a trade and a little bit more…. When the Twins traded Lewin Diaz to Florida, they got Romo and a little bit more in prospect Valimont (who was a top 30 prospect before regressing).  He is no longer with the Twins but this is not the only example.  When the Twins traded Garver to the Rangers for their SS Isiah Kiner-Falefa the Twins got a little bit more with Henriquez who is a top 30 prospect.  With the trade for Lopez the Twins got a lot (little bit more) with Jose Salas a top 15 prospect and Byron Chorio which is essentially an extra international signing. 
I actually forgot this and am now adding but they also got Severino when the Braves were penalized for their international signing practices and the Twins were able to swoop in and sign Severino away from the Braves for 2.5 million.  This added another in and out top 30 Twins prospect.  As Seth Stohs points out he should be in AA next season and 1 year younger then the average player at that level.  He also had a high OPS last year.  
The one creative way that is missing is the Rule 5 draft.  A favorite of the last regime, but not used by this one.   I am also leaving out the waver wire because most of our acquisitions have not been prospects per se.  Also I don't remember the full details on acquiring Cave from the Yankees I think we gave up Gil who is a great prospect for the Yankees and I don't remember what we gave up for Littell either.  If i remember correctly he was also a pickup from a playoff sell off with the pitcher we had for a week going to New York.  we trade Hnoa to the Braves for that pitcher so essentially a three team trade of Hnoa for Littell and a start by the other pitcher.  
Overall from their creativity we have a #3 starter in Ryan, 2 RPs in Duran and Alcala, a back up OF in Celestino, and 5 of our current top 30 prospects ( Enlow, Salas, SWR, Martin, and Henriquez) and 1 just outside the top 30 in Severino.

With Kyle Garlick being dfa'd and Gilberto Celestino being far from reliable, who should the Minnesota Twins have as their bench outfielder? Free agent options such as A.J. Pollock and Andrew McCutchen have signed elsewhere; options are becoming thin for the Twins. Adam Duvall and Tommy Pham are available, but both are 34 years old and could be nearing the end of their time in the Big Leagues. I want to look at one option still in-house that could fill this role for 2023 that would be a practical choice for Minnesota; Max Kepler. 
Cover Photo by Bailey Hillesheim/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
Yes, I am aware that Kepler hits left-handed. However, Kepler held his own against lefties in 2022; he had a 98 wRC+ in left-on-left matchups. I don't think a right-handed bat is as big of a need as the presumption is; Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa, Kyle Farmer, Ryan Jeffers, and Jose Miranda should all serve as plus bats against left-handed pitching. It seems inevitable that the Twins will trade Kepler this offseason, but if they don't, there is no reason he can't be a very serviceable outfielder off the bench. Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach, and Byron Buxton have all missed significant time the last two seasons due to injuries, so the Twins should be cautious to pencil in any of those guys for 150+ games. Kepler provides elite defense in RF, amassing a very impressive 46 DRS (defensive runs saved) and 51 OAA (outs above average) throughout his career; he should be comparable in LF as well. Kepler has also held his own in CF throughout his career. In just over 1,100 innings in CF, he has recorded 2 DRS and 8 OAA in his time there. Certainly a few steps below Buxton, but nobody is at that level.  
The frustration with Kepler from Twins fans has not come from his defense. Many point to a low batting average as a sign that Kepler has been an underwhelming hitter, but I do not believe that is the case. While not reaching the heights his batted ball data would suggest he is capable of, Kepler gives value in other ways at the plate. He borders on having both elite plate discipline and bat-to-ball skills. This shows with Kepler ranking in the 88th percentile in K% and 84th percentile in BB% in 2022. He was also tied with Yordan Alvarez for 17th in BB/K rate among hitters with 400 plate appearances. 
Kepler could make some batted-ball adjustments as well. According to Statcast, in 2022, Kepler's ground ball% was 46.6% (league average 44.9%), a massive 8.9% jump from 37.7% in 2021. His flyball% dropped to 24.5%, down from 28.1% in 2021 (league average 23.1%), his lowest flyball% since 2017. As I'm sure you are familiar, Kepler is a very pull heavy hitter, ranking in the 74th percentile in pull% among hitters with 250 plate appearances in 2022 despite this being his lowest pull% since 2017. Unfortunately pulling ground balls is one of the least effective ways to get hits. In 2019, Kepler had his second-lowest career ground ball% at 35.9% and his highest career flyball% at 29.8%; if Kepler starts hitting the ball in the air again instead of on the ground, there may be a lot more room for improvement. 
I don't think Kepler should be a middle-of-the-order hitter, but that's what he has been for the last few years on the Twins. In part because of a career year in 2019 and in part due to necessity because of injuries. Throughout his Major League career, Kepler has taken over two-thirds of his plate appearances in one of the top 5 spots in the lineup despite being only a 101 wRC+ hitter. If Kepler is hitting seventh or eighth in the lineup, he is a much better fit. Even last season, a down year by almost all metrics, Kepler finished with a 95 wRC+, five percent worse than the league average. It is important to mention injuries got to him as well, as he put up a 116 wRC+ in the first half of the season and a 33 wRC+ in the second half, where he was playing much of it through foot and wrist injuries. Kepler can consistently put together quality at-bats and is very capable of hard contact; this makes for an ideal fit for a bench player who can play every day if (when) someone gets injured. 
I want to touch on a very underrated part of Kepler's game; his base running. Only once in his career has Kepler had a negative BsR season by Fangraphs, and it was in 2019 when he had his best season at the plate. I do think there is more base-stealing upside for Kepler. Although he only has 33 career stolen bases, hitting more toward the bottom of the lineup could make him more willing to run. He will not have hitters like Nelson Cruz or Carlos Correa hitting behind him, making the risk of stealing less penalizing. He does have 64th percentile sprint speed and stole ten bases in 2021. Under the right conditions, I think he has 20 SB potential. 
In totality, it seems that it is only a matter of time until Max Kepler is no longer a Twin. Still, it is worth considering the possibility of reducing his role and hanging onto him. For one, he is already under contract for 7 million, the same amount as A.J. Pollock received and only two million more than Andrew McCutchen. Kepler is a much better player than either of those two at this point in their careers. He has a team option for 10 million in 2024 as well. Kepler has been a remarkably consistent player year to year for the Twins, never having a season below 2.0 fWAR and never having a season below 93 wRC+. For reference, Nick Gordon impressed many people last year but only put up 1.5 fWAR in 2022. While frustrations have grown watching him hit in the middle of a lineup undeservingly, it's not fair to fault Kepler for that. If he can serve as a fourth outfielder and hit more toward the bottom of the lineup, I think Kepler still has a place on the Minnesota Twins this year and next. If they can land a good return for him, the front office will not hesitate to pull the trigger, but they shouldn't treat him as a salary dump. He isn't making very much, and he still has a skillset to help a team win games.
 

I believe that injuries to outfielders could be greatly reduced if the outfield padding at Target Field were replaced with high tech padding.  
One option would be to replace the existing padding with much thicker padding that has a layer of low density foam on the outside (facing the players) and thicker densities closer to the concrete wall. I have a mattress that came in a box that has this arrangement and believe that this approach could be adapted to baseball to cut the trauma from hitting the wall by 80% or more.
Or the Twins could borrow from Hollywood stunt people and use technology based on the air bags and crash mats that lets stunt people fall from high places without injury.  https://fall-pac.com/news/fall-protection-for-stunt-men/
Based on some rough math, I believe that for $500,000 of R&D, $1 million of manufacturing cost and $500,000 of installation costs, the Twins could have an outfield wall that could cut the injury rate by more than 50%, perhaps more than 90%.  This would be peanuts compared with the loss of value if Buxton gets injured on the current wall.  To me this is a lot like adding roll cages to race cars -- a small cost for a lot of safety.  
What value of WAR will be lost if Buxton gets injured by the wall?  And I firmly believe that Royce Lewis would not have been hurt at all last year by his wall collision if the high tech wall had been in place.  
One small side benefit would be a slight home field advantage -- balls that hit the padding would tend to stick and die there, not bounce back into the field of play.  The Twins players would develop expertise in dealing with that.  Players from other teams would have to learn how to adapt, like with the ivy at Wrigley.  Another side benefit would be that players could be more aggressive when they are near the wall, knowing that it is by far the safest wall on the planet.
I believe that eventually all teams will have this.  Why not get out in front of it and maybe even develop some patents to make other teams pay to get it?
 
 
 

In "Fun with Player Comps" I look at player comps for 30 current Twins who figure to ply a role in 2023, starting with their closest age player from Baseball-Reference.com prior to 2022. I then move into the best and worst case scenarios based on each player's general vibe. Find the first installment for the middle infield here.
 
The Twins center-field options will include at least one new face for 2023 in Joey Gallo. The rest of the group contains the same warts: When Byron Buxton gets hurt there will be a massive trade-off in offense, defense, and/or flexibility for the rest of the position player group. The upside could be fun, though. Let's start with the new guy:
 
Joey Gallo
B-R best comp through Age 28: Dave Kingman
It's hard to beat this comp. If I got to pick it myself it might have been this very fellow. Kingman was essentially the Gallo of the 70s and 80s: he didn’t walk much because that wasn’t what all-or-nothing sluggers did back then. But like Gallo, he was a caricature of himself, even when he was having some good years and collecting down-ballot MVP votes.He hit 442 home runs, which is great, but that came with a .236 batting average and a .302 OBP. But the comparison to Gallo runs deeper than numbers: when your dad complains about Gallo's strikeouts and how his style of play is ruining the game (without any knowledge or mention of his great outfield defense), your dad's dad was complaining about Kingman, one of the first players to normalize striking out over 100 times per year. His dad complained about Mickey Mantle, probably.
Worst case: White Sox Adam Dunn, post-contract extension Chris Davis
I wouldn’t recommend looking up stats on these comps.
Best case: Median Cody Bellinger
Bellinger’s true talent probably wasn’t represented in his 2019 MVP season, but it also wasn’t in his 2021-2022 seasons. In 2018, however, Bellinger put up a 120 OPS+ with good defense across multiple positions, including center-field. That would be nice to see from Gallo.
 
Byron Buxton
Age 28: Bo Jackson
This might be somehow better than Gallo’s Kingman comp. Bo was electrifying and could do things no other human could do across multiple sports. Sadly, he was a little healthier than Buxton until his tragic hip injury, but outside of Mike Trout, his five tools weren't been matched until Lord Byron first learned how to turn on pitches.
Worst case: Ellis Valentine
Valentine was one of the hottest prospects of the 1970’s and one of the first to exhibit five loud tools. His failure to launch was partly Tim Raines’ fault for getting him hooked on cocaine, and partly the brutal AstroTurf in Montreal’s garbage can of a stadium. It all caught up to him and after age 26 he was a shell of himself; by age 30 he was out of baseball. Coming up with Gary Carter, Raines and Andre Dawson, all Hall-of-Famers, you really start to feel for Montreal fans of that era, who witnessed one postseason series win despite all that talent. "Cry me a river," say fans of Buxton and the Twins.
Best case: Kevin Kiermaier’s glove and Gary Sheffield’s bat
One player can’t encapsulate the upside of Buxton, but these two pin it down fairly well. Buxton has the lightning quick bat and snarl of Sheffield, and is Kiermaier's only peer when it comes to fearlessly running down impossible-to-catch fly balls.
 
Gilberto Celestino
(No comps yet)
Worst case: Shane Robinson
Robinson was a fungible fourth or fifth outfielder with some on-base ability and plus defense, but never developed any power to speak of. He reached the peak plate appearance season of his career with the Twins in 2015 when he came to bat 197 times.
Best case: Manuel Margot
Margot has carved out an interesting career. He was originally a hot Red Sox prospect out of the Dominican with power, speed and good center-field defense. In what became a trend of trading him for mercurial late inning relievers, he was traded to the Padres for Craig Kimbrel. He was later flipped to the Rays for one Emilio Pagán. He has since become a streaky but valuable role player for the Rays, providing a .695 OPS, decent defense and the ability to go yard and steal a base. He also has been clutch for the Rays in the postseason, hitting five home runs for the Rays in their pennant winning 2020 season. If Celestino can come close to that level of production, the Twins can live with Buxton playing only 80-90 games, provided those games include the stretch run.
 
Nick Gordon
Age 26: Chris Burke
Burke had some big postseason moments with the Astros in the early aughts but had an otherwise nondescript career. He did slash .276/.347/.418 in 2006 but otherwise never had a slugging percentage higher than .368. Gordon also needs to keep his slugging squarely in the .450 range for him to have significant long-term value.
Worst case: Christian Colón
Colón was a high draft pick who never hit enough to carve out a career as a utility man. He did win a ring with Kansas City, but after posting a 104 OPS+ over his first two years encompassing 168 plate appearances, he dropped that number to 47 playing sporadically for three teams in 250 plate appearances. If Gordon stalls in his development with the bat, his middling defense won't save him from a similar fate.
Best case: Scooter Gennett
Gennett was mostly a second baseman who hit the ball harder than you would think, and despite his 5’10” frame, put up some big power numbers in Cincinnati. Gordon would love to match Gennett’s peak, but also would probably like to stay in the league a little longer- Gennett played his last game at age 29. To reach a peak like that, Gordon has to continue to refine his approach and hunt pitches a little better, but he has surprised us a few times already, so why not?
 
Quite a bit of variance, no? Sorting through these options legitimizes the Gallo signing a little more, only because Kepler won't play center whether he remains with the team or not, and it gives them another dice to roll when Buxton isn't available. Anything is better than Jake Cave and Mark Contreras.
Link to previous entry in this series:
Fun with player comps- Middle infield edition

Right now, the general consensus is that the Twins are going to miss the playoffs. Some might go as far as saying that they are a 90-100 loss team. You could point at the two consecutive losing seasons or the loss of Correa, but is that the fully story? Are the Twins really that bad? Lets take a look. 
Shortstop
After missing on Correa (twice), This is the most pressing issue on the Twins. All four of the top free agent shortstops are gone so the Twins will have to make do with in-house options. That lands on Kyle Farmer. 
Age Tm Lg G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB Pos Awards 31 CIN NL 145 583 526 58 134 25 1 14 78 4 3 33 99 .255 .315 .386 .701 90 203 20 16 2 6 0 65D/H3   in 2022, Farmer had a relatively average season with a slash of .255/.315/.386 for a .701 OPS and a 1.0 war. He does provide defensive value with his ability to play all over the infield. This past year, the Twins were very inconsistent with their infield defense so Kyle Farmer certainly helps to support that. 
One of the biggest things to get excited about this season is the eventual return of Royce Lewis. 
Year Age Tm Lg G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB Pos Awards 2022 23 MIN AL 12 41 40 5 12 4 0 2 5 0 0 1 5 .300 .317 .550 .867 145 22 2 0 0 0 0 6/8 Lewis broke into the league in early May to fill in for a injured Correa and he took advantage of his opportunity. While it was short term, Lewis demonstrated his ability to hit for both Average and Power. Similar to Farmer, he has defensive flexibility and can move between the infield and outfield. However, Lewis suffered his second torn ACL so his return isn't immediate or guaranteed. When healthy, his value to the team is immense and will be one of the most fun players to watch for years to come. 
It may still be way to soon, but Brooks Lee is a name to keep an eye out for. He is the Twin's highest nationally ranked prospect and is an incredible hitter. He progressed quickly through the farm system and ended the season on AA. 
Starting Rotation
Year after year, The Twins have had incomplete and weak rotations and often relied on cheap, old free agents to fill out the back end. This year is different as the Twins have the deepest and most talented rotation in years. As it currently stands:
1. Sonny Gray
2. Tyler Mahle
3. Joe Ryan
4. Kenta Maeda
5. Bailey Ober
Depth: Louie Varland, Josh Winder, SImeon Woods-Richardson
Sonny Gray was excellent for the Twins with a 125 ERA+ and a 3.40 FIP. The Twins should see similar results from him this year and as of now, remains our ace. Tyler Mahle Is somewhat of an unknown. He only made two complete starts for the Twins before ending his season with a shoulder injury but those two starts were excellent. He has similar stuff to Sonny Gray and is five years younger so it may be possible to see him competing with Gray for the top spot in the Rotation. 
In his first full year in the MLB, Joe Ryan excelled. He was incredibly reliable, posting the most innings pitched by any starter. He also has the most potential of any of the starting pitchers and will hugely contribute to the team. 
Kenta Maeda is a complete wild card. He was excellent in the shortened 2020 season and came second in the cy young. He wasn't the same in 2021 and he ended the season with tommy john surgery. It is unclear which version the Twins will get in 2023 but he has the chance to fit into the top of our rotation. 
The remaining four guys are all interchangeable. They are all young and have good potential but we haven't seen enough of them to truly see where they lie in this rotation. 
Bullpen
This was debatably the worst aspect of the Twins last year and was the cause of way to many late inning collapses. This year however, the Bullpen is already looking significantly stronger. 
Jhoan Duran was absolutely elite. He had one of, if not the best rookie reliever seasons of all time and he is crucial to the Twins success. 
Year Age Tm Lg W L W-L% ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR BB IBB SO HBP BK WP BF ERA+ FIP WHIP H9 HR9 BB9 SO9 SO/W Awards 2022 24 MIN AL 2 4 .333 1.86 57 0 18 0 0 8 67.2 50 15 14 6 16 3 89 4 0 6 266 208 2.52 0.975 6.7 0.8 2.1 11.8 5.56 Duran was untouchable last year and could easily cement himself as one of the best relievers in all of baseball. 
The other backend relivers - Jorge Lopez and Griffin Jax - aren't quite as good as Duran but should set up for elite late inning group. Jorge Lopez was lights out for the Orioles but faced some command issues with the Twins. He should get back on track and fit right in as the closer. 
Another piece to keep an eye out for is Jorge Alcala. He had a solid 2021 season with a .972 WHIP and 9.2 K/9 but missed all of 2022. He has a chance to join Jax, Duran and Lopez in an elite reliever core. 
As for middle relief, it still looks relatively strong. 
Caleb Thielbar and Jovani Moran are the two lefties. Thielbar was incredibly reliable and Moran is still young but has one of the best changeups in the league.
While Trevor Megill and Emilio Pagan were the weak links last year, they still fill out this bullpen nicely. Each of them have high velocity and great strikeout numbers. Towards the end of the year, Pagan added a new pitch and excelled. He finished the season with five straight scoreless outings. They certainly aren't fan favorites but to have big strikeout guys for middle relief is huge. 
Youth
I already mentioned Ryan, Duran and Lewis but the list goes on and on. 
Jose Miranda was a everyday, middle of the lineup bat with a slash of .268/.325/.422 and 13 homeruns. In 2023 he will play third base consistently and his defensive should improve. 
Trevor Larnach and Matt Wallner both played few games but look like they could become starting outfielders next year. Larnach was elite defensively and both of them hit for good power. If healthy, Alex Kirilloff will play a big role in the offense as he was great when he played. 
The Twins have the arguably the best young core of players in years and they are going to make the largest impact on the team going forward. For any sustained success, the team is going to have to rely on these guys.
 
It's easy to write the 2023 Twins off as a lost cause after last years disappointing finish but I still see reason to believe that next year will greatly improve on last year. 
People are losing faith on the front office for missing Correa but they are still working to make this team better. The Joey Gallo signing adds defensive flexibility and a big bat with huge upside, but that won't be the last move. Whether it's another small free agent signing or trades, Falvey and Levine know what the Twins need and are hopefully working to address it. I would expect multiple, possibly creative deals prior to opening day to truly fill out the Twin's roster. 
At the end of the day, The AL central is wide open. The Guardians and White sox haven't taken massive steps forward and are still easily within reach of the Twins. If we avoid being battered by injuries like last year, this team could win 90 games and be right in the playoff mix. 
All we can do right now is stay optimistic and let it all play out.   
   
 
 

Do I think that Luis Arraez is in any great danger to be traded? No. He doesn't have enough value to be the centerpiece in a trade for top end starting pitching.
I would be sad though. Upon his winning of the AL batting title, I did some research, and found an interesting statistic, which I shared on Reddit at the time with some inaccuracies, and I want to write up here as well as the definitive edition.
The Twins have had the AL batting champion 15 times since 1964, a whopping 26% of seasons (Carew x7, Oliva x3, Mauer x3, Puckett x1, Arraez x1). In that same timespan, the Twins have had 16 seasons with at least one (1) 30 homerun hitter. They are almost as likely to have a hitter win a batting title as they are to have a single hitter hit 30 home runs. To show my work, here is a list of years with at least one player who hit 30 homeruns:
2021: Polanco (33), Sano (30)
2019: Cruz (41), Kepler (36), Sano (34), Rosario (32). Garver (31)
2017: Dozier (34)
2016: Dozier (42)
2012: Willingham (35)
2009: Cuddyer (32), Morneau (30)
2007: Morneau (31)
2006: Morneau (34), Hunter (31)
1987: Hrbek (34), Brunansky (32), Gaetti (31)
1986: Gaetti (34), Puckett (31)
1984: Brunansky (32)
1970: Killebrew (41)
1969: Killebrew (49)
1967: Killebrew (44)
1966: Killebrew (39)
1964: Killebrew (49), Oliva (32), Allison (32)
During a stretch from 1971 to 1983, the Twins had zero hitters hit more than 30 home runs, but had a player win the batting title six times. From 1988 to 2005 there were also no 30 home run seasons, but there was a batting title. There have been more players that won a batting title than have hit 40 or more homeruns in a season (Cruz, Dozier, Killebrew).
With at least one more season of Luis Arraez and no sure bets to belt 30 longballs in 2023, the record may come to 16-16, which would make any curmudgeonly, old-school, Twins Way, baseball fan like me smile.
As a side note, in 1981, Roy Smalley led the Twins in homers with 7.

More and more it is looking like the "Nuclear Option" is the only way the Twins will ever improve.
With rumors now circulating of Yankees in on Correa as well as other big spenders, and rumors circulating about a $400M contract. the Twins must SPRINT to the door and get out!!!  That is very sad, as I was actually thinking the Twins actually get a decent deal done around the $300-320M mark.
 
I had shared an option in previous posts, and it nwo onyl seems even MORE the right way to go.  HELP THE YANKEES!!!
Joel Sherman is saying he believes the Yankees will release Stanton in a couple of years, that is eating MILLIONS, if this is potentially true, then why no let him go NOW and NOT have to pay millions.
 
Yankees signed Judge, if they want Correa at nearly $400M, AND want Rodon in the rotation, we can still help make this happen, but because it would be waiving the white flag on Correa it would have to be even sweeter for us!!!
 
AS mentioned in other posts, we take on...
1) Stanton and his large remaining contract. but we renegotiate opt outs for him after EVERY year in order for him to waive his NT clause.
2) Donaldson, but the Yankees remain on the hook for any potential $6M mutual option that may get picked up in 2024.. No, I don't want Donaldson, but we flip him for a one f those big nachos in a batting helmet. Someone would take him on, especially if they could get him for FREE next year.  Maybe Boston?? Donaldson gets to stick it to the yanks and if he plays for Boston while getting paid by Yanks, that is always fun!!
3) Aaron Hicks and his remaining contract. would be tough sledding being able to flip this deal, and would be on the books in future years at $10M as well.  (BUT IF WE CAN GET VALUE ITS DOABLE)
That is about $63M
Those are the bad contracts we have to eat. Now for good stuff.  In order to incentivize us to take on all those years and dollars, and more importantly allowing the Yankees the freedom to go after Correa AND Rodon. , the Twins also get...
1) Luis Severino, and his 1 year of control at $15M.  This gives us a potential Ace, yes he has health issues, but we are only committed for 1 year, and if he proves healthy its a steal. PLUS it frees up another $15M for the Yanks bringing the cash clearance to about $78M (EASILY enough for Rodon and Correa!!!)
2) Anthony Volpe... Untouchable you say??  well if you sign Correa then Volpe is redundant. plus we demand big time prospects for clearing teh cap space!!
3) speaking of big time prospects, we also demand Jasson Dominguez.  again have to give up big pieces to get big pieces
4) Luis Gil.  Gil is a big armed prospect (former Twins prospect) who is MLB ready and would add more depth
5) Final piece is either Roderick Arias or Josh Breaux. Arias is a high ceiling infielder you can never get enough of, and Breaux is an MLB ready young catcher (albeit not LH).
What do the Twins give up???  the answer is basically very little.  let say Kepler,  I mean he is a LH with Yankee Stadium 81 games per year. and then maybe throw in Arraez (like an All-Star batting champ is a throw in). Maybe a prospect going back to make it look more even
 
 
SO why does this work for both?
Simple;;
Yankees: It allows the Yankees to clear bad contracts of players they want gone in Hicks and Donaldson, It gets them out of the Stanton contract and he has never really fit in NY. and it allows them the roster and cap space to sign both Correa and Rodon without impacting luxury tax. They are set up for the foreseeable future, and can afford to move prospects who are now blocked, and after all... "prospects are suspects until proven otherwise".
The Yankees are currently at an estimated $248M payroll, signing either or both of Correa/Rodon would push them crazily past the highest penalty tier, and as repeat offenders would pay an additional $40+M in penalties, not to mention the loss of bonus pools and draft picks.
 
Why do the Twins do this?
OK so lets assume we are able to somehow flip Donaldson, for little to nothing in return. Maybe even sending a marginal prospect away in addition. That is a wash. swapping Arraez & Kepler for Severino is essentially a wash financially after Arraez Arb win. so that means teh Twins are taking on a net $42M dollars which brings the estimated payroll to just $135M which is still $14M below last years payroll!!  and what do we get for this payroll?  we get a big RH bat we need who would be primary DH but could play some OF (and with the chance he may opt out at any year releasing us from paying him to teh end). We get a crowd favorite back (but for how long would he be a crowd favorite now) who can play backup CF. we get to add a potential dominat arm to the rotaion, AND we get absolute stud prospects in Volpe, Dominguez, Arias, to go with our already good list of prospects. This sets us up to have the next wave of cheap young players to extend a window or use as trade material for the young top pitcher we cannot afford on the FA market.
 
Imagine a lineup in 1.5 years of Volpe, Lewis, Dominguez, Miranda, Buxton, Stanton and if Kirilloff can hit potential and get rid of that wrist, and if Wallner/Larnach can hit. That is a great young lineup!!!
yes, this seems crazy, but seriously, if we lose out on Correa, what else you gonna do to make an impact?
 

Okay, the title ignores the whole shortstop situation, but hear me out. Actually it also ignores the catcher issue as well, but just keep reading. I'll briefly address them later.
When @vikingsfan1936 commented "Failvine found there missing piece ..." and "World Sereis here we  come" under Dan Hayes's tweets about the Twins' trade for Kyle Farmer and resigning of Kyle Garlick, respectively, he might not actually be too far off the mark. Obviously, no one would say that the Two Kyles™️ solve all the problems that the Twins face, but there may be some interesting strategy in development.
The term "set the floor" has been thrown around quite a bit in regards to the acquisition of Farmer; his presence provides a shortstop that the team can, at minimum, tolerate while holding its nose and paying ~6M for the season. However, the floor could have also been set with the likes of Elvis Andrus, Aledmys Diaz, or Jose Iglesias. Hell, old friend Andrelton Simmons or phantom signing Johan Camargo could technically fill the role of Floor™️ without giving up a mid-level prospect in the process. So why did the Twins go out of their way to snatch up Kyle Farmer before the Reds likely non-tendered him? One reason: his ability to kill two birds with one stone and be the Floor™️ at both shortstop and catcher.
Kidding, of course. His catching background is nice to have in a team's back pocket and satisfy the Ron Gardenhire 3-Catcher-Quota, but the real reason is that the Twins plan on using him as a vital piece of the lineup on a regular basis. Assuming that the team manages to sign or otherwise acquire another shortstop, relegating Farmer to a utility infielder, the lineup against righties would look something like this:
C: Jeffers
1B: Kirilloff*
2B: Polanco
3B: Miranda
SS: <insert shortstop>
LF: Larnach*
CF: Buxton
RF: Kepler*
DH: Arraez*
*left-handed hitter
There's likely some give on this, and an assumption that Larnach and Kirilloff are both healthy and ready to perform, but, should they not be, the in-house replacements are Nick Gordon and Matt Wallner, which is less than ideal, but it's what they've got. And did I mention that they're also both lefties?
We all know what Kyle Garlick is here to do, and that's to mash lefties (130 wRC+ in the past two years), play a passable left field, and look like a sexy firefighter in the dugout when there isn't a lefty on the mound. As was noted quickly after the trade by members of Twins Territory, Kyle Farmer also has very fun splits versus lefthanded pitching, with a wRC+ 22% above league average and an absurd triple slash line last year of .309/.380/.568 (.948 OPS) in 158 plate appearances. Farmer has the additional value over Garlick of also being a serviceable option at shortstop defensively and a good fielder at both second and third base, which is where a platoon strategy comes into play.
Platoons are great. In the absence of an all-star player, a team can opt to selectively play two players in opportunities that suit their strengths, often based on handedness. Lefties hit righthanded pitchers better, righties hit southpaws better. Everyone knows this. The Twins have the misfortune of having lefties in both corner outfield positions, first base, and designated hitter at the present, which are the top four positions counted on to provide offensive thump. This is an issue when facing a lefthanded hurler, and it's shown in recent years as the squad has struggled against lefties for the past three years with an OPS below league average.
So, let's do a little plug-and-play. Let's say that Garlick will play left field and Farmer will play third base. This will slide Miranda over to first base vs. lefties. For the sake of argument, we'll let Kepler and Larnach alternate games in right, and Arraez and Kirilloff will split games at DH (could also be first base with Miranda DHing, but stop questioning me). Here's what we're looking at, along with each player's wRC+ vs lefties last year.
C: Jeffers (161)
1B: Miranda (132)
2B: Polanco (75)**
3B: Farmer (157)
SS: <insert shortstop>
LF: Garlick (128)
CF: Buxton (159)
RF: Kepler*(98)/Larnach*(108)
DH: Arraez*(101)/Kirilloff*(73)
* lefthanded hitter
** let's hope Polanco can get at least back up to his 93 career wRC+ and hopefully closer to his 118 between 2020 & 2021, or I'll look real silly
We've now worked our way down to two spots in the lineup occupied by lefties when the Twins face a LHP. And those numbers look like a lot of fun. Scanning the rest of the in-house options for righties brings us to Gilberto Celestino, who is actually a worse hitter vs. LHP than any of the lefties at the bottom of that lineup. It ought to be noted that virtually all shortstops available as free agents or rumored to be trade targets to any extent (except for lefty Brandon Crawford) are righthanded hitters, so they would all fit well into this lineup as well.
But if we take this one step further, we can arrive at a solid, balanced team that can succeed against both right- and lefthanded pitchers. And that, finally, brings us to the real reason I wrote this blog. Did you really think this was another "No, seriously, guys, Kyle Farmer is actually a galaxy-brain move and not cringe Falvine at it again, liking a good deal better than a good player, stop laughing!!!!" blog?
The Twins need a solid righthanded bat that can play a corner infield spot or first base, and it doesn't need to be a stud. Jose Abreu was snapped up yesterday by the Astros, removing potentially the biggest bat from the group. Although it would be great to bring in high-upside, belle-of-the-ball guys like Willson Contreras as that last piece of righty oompf, the front office can reasonably aim lower and still do a good job at rounding out this squad.
If the team has the budget to pay for a Josh Bell- Mitch Hanniger-  or Juickson Profar type, those guys are available and would fit the bill. I would personally like to see money spent on a shortstop, but if the value is right and the money is there, why not? We can go down the ladder to a few more reasonable options. 
Andrew McCutchen brings name recognition and a great clubhouse reputation, providing some true experience to a group of players who are largely in their 20s still, and he can be penciled in in left most days, though his age seems to be catching up to him. The same goes for J.D. Martinez, who has been one of the league's most dependable hitters as he reaches his mid-30s, though he's also showing signs of slowing down and would be restricted to DH. Brandon Drury had something of a pop-up season, and his market has yet to be determined, but if pro scouting believes in him, he could also fit into those plans and have more positional flexibility than the rest of the names on this list, except maybe Profar.
Trey Mancini and Wil Myers are two names that have been getting thrown around for several teams as easy targets to fill a similar role with some level of positional flexibility. Brandon Warne seems to think that Luke Voit could be a match as a plug-and-play option at first. The list goes on and on. The bar for a serviceable righthanded corner outfielder/first baseman/designated hitter is so low. Personally, I'd love to see the team take a flyer on Adam Duvall to have a bounce back year returning from wrist surgery. His numbers look rough in his injury-shortened age-33 year, but he was really turning it on in with a 136 wRC+ in the 8 weeks before his injury after an abysmally slow start (49 wRC+ prior to May 28), and he provides centerfield insurance.
All that is to say that the team acquiring one righthanded, starting-caliber player to provide some thump should not be a tall task. That player may result in one of the corner outfielders being pushed out (likely Kepler, but Larnach and Kirilloff as well, for the right price, could be on the move). If that additional player is a first baseman (Bell, Voit, Mancini unless you really squint) or DH-only (Martinez), Kirilloff would get more play out in left field. Moving Larnach over to right seems to be less of a scary topic given the solid arm that he's always been known to have and his surprising range exhibited last season. Gordon can also be used to take on some of the work against righties if, for example, a McCutchen-type signing struggles to hit vs. RHP consistently but can still knock around the lefties. 
Bonus points for signing Omar Narvaez and allowing Jeffers to bash lefties to his heart's content, too.
Would you like to see the Twins add a righty bat? If so, who would be your #1 choice?

Quite a number of posts have railed about “The Plan” for Twins starters to make short starts and never face the Third Time Through the Order, but I did a fairly deep dive into looking at box scores and would offer a different analysis of their starter usage this season. Here’s an alternative take for consideration, arguing that The Plan was not the plan: 
From Opening Day until about May 31, the Twins tried using starters in a “normal” pattern. If you look at starters across the board (except for Archer), there are a decent number of 6 inning starts and even some 7 inning starts from Gray, Ryan, Paddack, and Bundy.  Unfortunately, by May 31, every starter except Archer had already spent time on the IL or was sent to the minors for being ineffective. That meant a 13-game stretch where their starters were Smeltzer, Sands, Ober, Archer, Gonzalez, Bundy, Smeltzer, Sands, Archer, Bundy, Smeltzer, Gonzalez. Continuing that is a recipe for disaster.  On June 14 and 15, Ryan and Gray came off the IL to join Archer, Bundy and somebody else (more on that coming) in the rotation. At that point, I think the team felt like it had two choices. They could either keep using starters “normally” and risk them going back to the IL, replaced by Gonzalez, Sands, et. al, OR they could find a way to manage their workload. They chose the latter, shortening the outings of nearly all of their starters from that point forward. For a time it worked, at least in terms of staying healthy. From June 13 to Sept. 9, the quartet of Bundy-Archer-Ryan-Gray made all of their starts, with the exception of a short IL stint around the All-Star break for Archer, where he missed two outings. The fifth spot in the rotation was first filled by Smeltzer (6 times), Winder (3 times, once as a 27th man and twice in Archer’s spot) and Sanchez (2 times). Then they traded for Mahle, who made three starts in the fifth spot and got hurt. Then two more for Sanchez, one more for Mahle and one from Varland. I’d also suggest that it largely worked in terms of quality. Gray pitched as expected, but it was actually Bundy who was their most effective starter and who played a key role in keeping them in the race.  Bundy had 14 starts (including two in the 13-game stint referenced above), going 72.1 innings with a 3.36 ERA and a .629 OPS against.  Gray had 14 starts, going 71 innings with a 3.42 ERA and an .672 OPS against.  Archer was arguably the next most effective. He made 15 starts (again counting the two in the 13-game stint referenced above), totaling 66.1 innings with a .657 OPS against. His ERA was elevated at 4.61, driven up primarily by several games when he got shellacked, including giving up six runs in 3 innings in his first game off the short IL stint. In 10 of the 15 games, however, he kept the team in the game by giving up two or fewer runs, but always in 4-5 innings.  Though he threw the most innings (75 in 14 starts), Ryan was actually the least effective, giving up a .783 OPS on the way to a 4.80 ERA. In his defense on the latter, it’s skewed by a game in which he game up 10 runs. I didn’t total up the showings of the others, other than to anecdotally remember that it was a mix of performances, what one might expect of a No. 5. Though they had lost the lead, they were still just 1.5 games back when Cleveland came to town on Sept. 9. Then the wheels came off. Mahle had been picked up to the fill the fifth spot, but had gotten hurt. Though Archer had pitched a lot of decent games, he never stretched out to the degree they hoped and made just one more start before being shut down. Gray made two more starts and was shut down. Bundy kept making starts, but ran out of gas and was ineffective. The bullpen showed spurts of effectiveness (Duran, Jax, Fulmer and Lopez at times after their acquisitions, Pagan in low-leverage spots during July and August). But overall, the bullpen was unable to handle the workload required with the short outings.  If you’ve made it this far, here’s my summary: 
 Short starts wasn’t “The Plan,” but they were forced into it by early-season injuries and the inability of Archer to extend. Consider how the story with starters might have been different if either Paddack or Ober stayed healthy; Archer does stretch out to going 5 innings regularly and 6 occasionally rather than never getting past the 4-5 range; and Mahle stays healthy after the trade. Though they could have brought up some of the young guys to use as long reliever/piggy backs, I think they saw the writing on the wall that things were not sustainable. Instead, they placed an emphasis on the long view, allowing guys like Varland and Woods Richardson to continue their development. They DID have several instances where they used Sanchez as an innings-eater. Were there some games when Rocco could have read Twins Daily and kept a starter in an inning longer? Probably, but I think they were again playing the long game, believing that their only chance of staying in the race was making sure that guys could make their next start. And the one after that. As an additional data point to suggest that short starts wasn’t The Plan, it’s worth noting that in composite of the previous years of the Falvey/Levine era, the Twins were actually within 0.1 innings of the league average in start length. The one year in which they were 0.3 innings less than the league average was the year in which they used Openers on at least eight games. Eight starts of one inning instead of five knocks your season average down by 0.2 innings. Conversely, in the season when Berrios, Odo, Pineda and Gibson stayed healthy, they actually were 0.3 innings ABOVE average in starter length.  

The time to make changes in the starting rotation is coming with Mahle due off the IL in about a week. Mahle, Gray and Ryan are easy picks, everyone else is in play - pick two of Bundy, Archer, Aaron Sanchez, Smeltzer, Louie Varland, SWR for 5, or should we go to a 6 man rotation and pick 3? Who goes into the bullpen?
To me, first choice is obvious - Dylan Bundy,  The man has a 2.33 ERA in August and has kept the Twins in every game he's started this month. Rocco needs to try giving him a shot at going  more than 5 innings but he has been an above average 4/5 rotation guy for the last month. The second choice is less obvious but the guy it shouldn't be is pretty clear - Chris Archer. He had a 11.74 ERA in July and has a 5.24 ERA in August. While he was better earlier, he only pitched 19 innings last year and is coming off a potentially career ending injury. He is running out of gas. Either put him in the bullpen or shut him down. 
That leaves Smeltzer and Sanchez on the roster, and Louie Varland and SWR down in AAA. Smeltzer was exposed while in the rotation before - 1.50 ERA in May, 4.10 in June, 8.76 in July - and actually looks the part of a long reliever with a 1.80 ERA since coming back up. Varland is tempting but he just got to AAA. SWR still has control issues and also just got there, and there isn't anyone else on the Saints roster who looks like anything close to a MLB starter. Those two could come up on 9/1 and still be under the 45 days so retain their rookie status for 2023. Very tempting to try to catch lightning in a bottle but I just don't think either one is ready.  Here's your winner - Aaron Sanchez. Yes, he was bad with the Nats, but his 2 starts with the Twins so far have been a total of 9 innings, 4 runs. He would have gone longer against Houston if Rocco hadn't messed up. His pitches have life and I could see him being very good against weaker teams and holding his own against better ones. If he pitches well Sunday against the Giants I think he's the man for the #5 spot in the rotation. 
For the bullpen, two changes jump out at me. First, Brad Peacock or Jharel Cotton should come up and replace Megill. Megill has good stuff, but he's been figured out - 1.86 ERA in July, 6.55 in August. Peacock is experienced and can better give us back of the bullpen work. Cotton had a 2.83 ERA when sent down, albeit with a FIP over 5. He's risky, but we could use another multi inning/long man with the shorter starts and he can fill that role. Archer stays and hits the BP or goes on IL. I would also be ok with Moran coming up if Archer goes on the IL. Remember, we get 2 more spots on 9/1 and one of them can be a pitcher so we can add one for a 9 man bullpen.  I say add Peacock and Cotton, move Archer to the bullpen, option Megill and option/DFA Pagan. Moran can come up if there's an injury but remember, once he comes up he's hit his limit for the year and can't be sent back down without exposing him to waivers. 
That would give us a starting rotation as of 9/1 of Mahle, Gray, Ryan, Bundy, Sanchez. The Bullpen is Duran and Lopez as the late inning guys, Jax, Theilbar, Fullmer, Archer (or Moran) and Peacock for innings 6-8, and Smeltzer and Cotton as the multi inning/long men. Smeltzer and Archer are the emergency starters. That's our best pitching staff for September in my view.
What say ye?
 

OK Twins fans, lets see if we can get some unique ideas on how to improve the MLB All Star experience.
You are the Commissioner for a Day, You can make unilateral decisions on the All Star Game (OK I know he can't, but let's pretend).
Here are a couple of mine.
1) a hitting "skills" competition.  MLB has the HR Derby which is the equivalent to the Slam Dunk contest. But what is MLB's Skilsl Competition?
How about a point based challenge with team and individual winners. Batters get points based on if they would have gotten a hit. How do you do that?  First you take teh average size of each MLB position player. Second you take the average range of each MLB position player. You use these dimensions to develop "blacked out areas" which would be outs. on the infield you could build mini walls or nets that encompass the space a typical infielder would be able to cover, and as high as the typical infielder could leap for a liner. Thos are placed in the infield. You hit them your out, you get it past them and you get a hit (insert point total here) For the outfield you could either do the same, just create markings on the ground, or even funner yet, have baskets on wheels with remote controls to position and chase after balls. these could be controlled by the opposing teams. for each ball caught it subtracts points, and fo reach base hit they get points.  (or you could just put live players in the outfield but that could just create potential for injury. You could then add all sorts of fun things.  you could have "Money Balls" where a section of the field is identified JUST before each pitch, where if the batter is able to get a hit to that area of the field they get bonus points.  This would help reward the players like Arraez and other hitters who are PURE hitters, and put the ball where it is needed based on skill. Heck could even raise money for charity by having each of the sections or nets sponsored corproately.
 
OK so nto completely fleshed out, but something different from a "skills"  perspective would be fun.
 
2) A community involved HR Derby.   
Fans can come and pay like $10-20 to get a bucket of 10 balls. fans also register as a fan of a specific team. the fans HR then get put into either an NL bucket or an AL bucket. whichever bucket ends up with the most fan HR has that team with the tiebreaker advantage. This eliminates the extra inning games, which while can be fun, are pointless in an exhibition. ALSO having to prepare for extra innings means some players are "kept in reserve" in case it goes extra and do not get to participate in what may be their ONLY All Star game appearance.
This makes the fans feel part of the game. PLUS you can do a "Split the Pot" type thing, where all of the money goes into a pot. for each HR hit that fan gets an entry into a drawing to Split the Pot. When the winner is drawn they get half the money in the pot, and the team that they registered as a fan for gets the other half to go their Team Community Fund. You could have a children's HR fence and an Adults HR fence.  The children's HR fence still counts towards the tie breaker, but obviously under 18 cannot get entry to win money. Can you imagine being a 10 year old and you hitting HR could help your favorite team/player win the All Satr Game!!!  How cool would that be!!
 
As far as the game goes... inning by inning, not sure I would change it, I like that it is as close to a real gaem as any All Star game is.
 
So those are my goofy thoughts.
 
What would you do to change the All Star game... the actual game, the weekend experience, the selection process, etc.????
 
 
 
 

We are about a month of the way through the 2022 MLB Season. Some teams have overperformed expectations thus far, some have underperformed expectations thus far, and other teams have performed as expected. I want to rank the 15 American League teams based on their performance in the first month of the season. I will be considering not only the teams' Win-Loss records but also the way the individual parts of the teams have performed. Let's dive into it, shall we? (Yes, I will be doing a National League Edition too, probably tomorrow or Sunday)
15. Detroit Tigers (8-16)
The Tigers have been awful in the first month of the season. Offensively, they rank 29th in Runs Scored, 27th in Team OPS, and T-24th in Team wRC+. Their pitching staff has been decent, ranking 10th in Team ERA, T-10th in Team WHIP, and 13th in Team Pitching ERA-. However, the decent performance of the pitching staff has not been able to make up for the godawful performance of the offense.
14. Kansas City Royals (8-15)
The Royals have stunk in the first month of the season. Offensively, they rank 30th in Runs Scored, T-28th in Team OPS, and T-28th in Team wRC+. Their pitching staff hasn't been any better, ranking 27th in Team ERA, 26th in Team WHIP, 28th in Team ERA-, and 28th in K%.
13. Baltimore Orioles (10-16)
This Orioles team which was expected to be bad has been bad. Offensively they rank 26th in Runs Scored, 21st in Team OPS, and 25th in Team wRC+. On the pitching side they rank 19th in Team ERA, T-24th in Team WHIP, and 27th in K%.
12. Oakland Athletics (10-15)
The A's have been terrible offensively in the first month of the season, ranking 22nd in Runs Scored, 29th in Team OPS, and 26th in Team wRC+. Their pitching staff hasn't been any better, ranking 25th in Team ERA, T-18th in Team WHIP, and 25th in Team ERA-.
11. Texas Rangers (10-14)
The Rangers, despite some of their aggressive offseason moves, have not been a good team. Offensively, they rank 17th in Runs Scored, 23rd in Team OPS, and 22nd in Team wRC+. While their offense hasn't been great, their pitching staff has been dreadful, ranking 25th in Team ERA, T-22nd in Team WHIP, and 26th in Team ERA-.
10. Boston Red Sox (10-16)
The Red Sox had one of MLB's most explosive offenses in 2021. This group, however, has greatly disappointed thus far in 2022, ranking 24th in Runs Scored, 26th in Team OPS, and 29th in Team wRC+. On the pitching side they've been better but still not good, ranking 18th in Team ERA, 13th in Team WHIP, and 17th in Team ERA-.
9. Seattle Mariners (12-14)
The Mariners have been league average offensively. Their offense ranks T-15th in Runs Scored, 16th in Team OPS, and T-6th in Team wRC+. Their pitching staff has been average to slightly above, ranking T-12th in Team ERA, 16th in Team WHIP, and 18th in Team ERA-.
8. Chicago White Sox (11-13)
The White Sox have been arguably the most disappointing team in the league thus far in the season. Offensively, they rank T-27th in Runs Scored, 24th in Team OPS, and 23rd in Team wRC+. On the pitching side, they've been about league average, ranking 16th in Team ERA, 24th in Team WHIP, 15th in Team ERA-, and 4th in K%.
7. Cleveland Guardians (12-13)
Unlike many Guardians teams of the recent years, the offense has been the highlight for these Guardians. Offensively, they rank 8th in Runs Scored, 6th in Team OPS, and T-4th in Team wRC+. Also unlike many Guardians teams of the recent years, the pitching staff has been the lowlight for these Guardians. Their pitching staff ranks 21st in Team ERA, (surprisingly) 10th in Team WHIP, 23rd in ERA-, and 18th in K%.
6. Toronto Blue Jays (16-11)
Toronto has been the definition of mediocre. They've been average offensively, ranking 9th in Team OPS, 18th in Runs Scored, and 14th in Team wRC+. Their pitching staff has also been average, ranking T-17th in Team ERA, 13th in Team WHIP, and T-16th in Team ERA-.
5. Minnesota Twins (15-11)
The Twins' pitching staff has been surprisingly good in the first month of the season, ranking 8th in Team ERA, 8th in Team WHIP, and 9th in Team K%. Offensively they've been above average, ranking 13th in Runs Scored, 10th in Team OPS, and 6th in Team wRC+.
4. Houston Astros (15-11)
The Astros' pitching staff has been superb through the first month of the season, ranking 5th in Team ERA, 5th in Team WHIP, and T-6th in Team ERA-. Their offense, however, has not been as good, ranking T-20th in Runs Scored, T-19th in Team OPS, and 15th in Team wRC+.
3. Los Angeles Angels (17-10)
The Angels have been excellent offensively, ranking T-1st in Runs Scored, 3rd in Team OPS, 2nd in Team wRC+, and 8th in Team Offensive WAR. Pitching has been an issue for Angels teams of the recent years, but thus far their pitching staff has been above average, ranking 14th in Team ERA, 4th in Team WHIP, 14th in Team ERA-, and 13th in Team Pitching WAR.
2. Tampa Bay Rays (16-10)
The Rays have been led by their pitching staff which ranks 6th in Team ERA, 3rd in Team WHIP, and 5th in Team K%. Offensively they aren't as strong but still are respectable, ranking 11th in Team OPS, 11th in Runs Scored, T-4th in Team wRC+, and T-4th in Team Offensive WAR.
1. New York Yankees (18-7)
This Yankees team has been firing on all cylinders thus far. Offensively, they rank 2nd in Team OPS, 6th in Runs Scored, T-1st in Home Runs, T-1st in Team wRC+, and 2nd in Team Offensive WAR. On the pitching side, they rank 2nd in Team ERA, 2nd in Team ERA-, 7th in Team WHIP, 6th in K%, and 2nd in Team Pitching WAR.
 
Those are my rankings. What are your rankings? Share them below!

Gilberto Celestino has had an interesting path to the majors, and one that reduced his initial shine for most of the fanbase. Celestino was acquired for Ryan Pressly at the 2018 trade deadline, alongside Jorge Alcala, in a very unpopular deal at the time. MLB Pipeline ranked Celestino the 15th best prospect in 2019, and 14th best in 2020. The consensus was that Celestino was a standout defensive center fielder, but questions about his bat and power limited his overall projection.
When Celestino was called up out of emergency in 2021, his initial performance not only confirmed the offensive questions in the prospect rankings but the calling card of his defense was also poor with -2 Outs Above Average coming from 56 attempts. Celestino was clearly overmatched at the major league level, as he played a handful of games at AA before making the jump to the Twins. Celestino accumulated a 22 wRC+ and -0.7 fWAR in only 62 plate appearances in 2021. 
Needless to say, when Celestino was added to the 2022 Opening Day roster the reaction amid the fanbase was tepid. It's probable that the Twins didn't even envision Celestino making the roster, as they optioned him to Triple-A St. Paul on 3/31. Many believed that his status on the roster was to be temporary, with rumors swirling about the Twins adding Justin Upton to be a source of right-handed power in the outfield. 
Derek Falvey even went as far to say that Celestino could be off the major league roster in a week's time. 
Flashing forward to early May, Celestino has outperformed expectations, and probably any output that could have come from Justin Upton. As of 5/9, Celestino has provided some of the best offensive and defensive numbers on the team. 
  AVG OBP SLG OPS OPS+ wRC+ wOBA fWAR bWAR Gilberto Celestino .324 .390 .405 .796 144 143 .361 0.6 0.4 FanGraphs has Celestino as the 6th most valuable offensive player on the Twins in fWAR and his wRC+ is the third highest on team behind Byron Buxton and the legendary Kyle Garlick. On the defensive side of his game, Celestino has 2 Outs Above Average (84th percentile). It's a small sample size, but how has Celestino been so valuable this early on? 
The answer to that question: Celestino has had amazing plate discipline. 
Season Pitches Zone % Zone Swing % Zone Contact % Chase % Chase Contact % Edge % 1st Pitch Swing % Swing % Whiff % Meatball % Meatball Swing % 2021 235 51.5 64.5 82.1 26.3 63.3 43.8 30.6 46 23.1 6 85.7 2022 145 52.4 65.8 96 15.9 72.7 46.2 28.6 42.1 8.2 8.3 66.7 MLB   48.5 66.8 82 28.3 58.4 42.6 29.2 47 24.6 7.2 76
The highlighted cells show that areas where Celestino has been outperforming both his 2021 self, and the MLB average. He's simply become one of the most contact-oriented players in the game, and one of the most discerning about balls and strikes. He's swinging and making contact at pitches that are meant to be swung at in the zone, and spitting at the outside pitches that usually result in outs. 
Among all players with at least 25 plate appearances, Celestino ranks 3rd in Whiff % (8.2%) , and 16th in Chase Rate (15.9%). To put that in further perspective, here's a look at Celestino compared to two other players with great plate discipline reputations. 
  Pitches Zone % Zone Swing % Zone Contact % Chase % Chase Contact % Edge % 1st Pitch Swing % Swing % Whiff % Meatball % Meatball Swing % Gilberto Celestino 145 52.4 65.8 96 15.9 72.7 46.2 28.6 42.1 8.2 8.3 66.7 Luis Arraez 351 43.6 66 92.1 25.8 88.2 46.4 19.5 43.3 8.6 5.7 60 Juan Soto 549 43.4 56.7 80.7 19.3 66.7 41 20.3 35.5 23.1 5.8 78.1 MLB   48.5 66.8 82 28.3 58.4 42.6 29.2 47 24.6 7.2 76 Am I saying that Gilberto Celestino is the next Juan Soto or Luis Arráez? No, but I am saying that Celestino is a supremely disciplined hitter with extreme contact skill. That doesn't always take a large sample to determine. Soto has a chase rate of 19.3%, which ranks in the 90th percentile. Arráez has a miniscule whiff rate of 8.6%, which is in the 100th percentile of MLB players. Celestino tops both players in these areas at this point in the season. 
The only knock on Celestino this year can be his lack of power. Both his Barrel Rate (3.2%) and his average exit velocity (86.9 MPH) rank below the MLB average. However, the Twins have plenty of slugging across their lineup to make up for that. Luis Arráez used to be the lone bat-to-ball man in the lineup with names like Miguel Sano, Gary Sanchez, Alex Kiriloff, and Gio Urshela. It helps to have offensive diversity, and Gilberto Celestino may be filling a needed niche that nobody expected. 

If Celestino's current blend of strong defense and astounding swing decisions holds up, he probably ranks as a starting-caliber outfielder on most major league teams. The lack of power will always hold him back from being a true star, but his skillset fits today's game more so than the previous half-decade. The surprise addition to Opening Day roster may have been the perfect fit for the 2022 brand of baseball. 
 
 

As I occasionally do, I checked MLB statistics today. I wanted to see how the team stacked up to the rest of Major League Baseball. Most teams have played about 10 games, so we have an idea of trends, although some things are out of whack. Baltimore has good pitching? Cleveland has the top team BA in the American League? Nah, those things won't last. What about the Twins? Well, with a 4-6 record and and -6 run differential, I figured the Twins would profile poorly on offense and middle of the road on the run prevention side, Here's what I found.
Pitching. Far from a disaster, but not league average. The Twins are 20th (of 30) in team ERA and 15th in runs per game. That difference is explained by only allowing three unearned runs despite 8 errors in 10 games. They haven't played any extra inning games and unearned runs really happen there due to the "ghost runner". Other stats--23rd in walks per nine innings, 21st in strikeouts per nine innings, 15th in Opponents Batting Average and 20th in WHIP (walks and hits per inning pitched). The starting staff has been better than expected, but the bullpen ERA is over 4.50. This looks like pretty good luck to this point--they're allowing more balls than average to be put in play, walking more than league average and still at the median for allowing base runners and runs.
Hitting. The only stat where the Twins are significantly better than league average is home runs. They are sixth in the league in homers per plate appearance. Other key stats--third in strikeouts per plate appearance, 25th in team OPS, 22nd in runs per game. Hitters are more predictable and projectable that pitchers. The Twins have been projected to be a good offensive team, probably enough to make up for their pitching deficiencies and hang around .500, so far that isn't the case. 
To summarize, it is early. The offense has been a major disappointment, but will improve. Pitching has been better than expected, but there are some number that predict a downturn. After playing three straight 90-win teams (from 2021), the Twins will face a less daunting schedule in the upcoming weeks. Hopefully, the record and stats improve over that time.

So, the bats up until this afternoon were cold, starting pitching left much to be desired and the bullpen outside of Duffy was quite decent in my opinion.
Some thoughts:
1) Please let Buxton get a full season in. I really think he could put up video game numbers.
2) They're taking decent at bats, but c'mon Kirilloff and Sano.  I think they start to get some to fall in soon.
3) The change of scenery for Gary Sanchez may do him a world of good.  (this has quite the potential to age poorly)
4) Rocco needs to find a way to get Arraez in the lineup every day.  Though I realize there were two lefty SP for Seattle in the first three games.
5) Duran is the real deal.
6) May be a unpopular opinion, but not having a named closer, or at least a de facto one will be a good thing. (Duffy's outing notwithstanding)
7) Go Twins

1-Maybe getting rid of Donaldson wasn't a bad thing. I'm over 1000 miles away, but I could never shake the thought that he wasn't good for chemistry...
2- Buxton Buxton Buxton - please stay healthy
3- Correa has a Nelson Cruz vibe - that calm cool presence in the middle of the order that keeps teams from trying to pitch around everyone else
4-Duran Duran - see Buxton
6 - who is gonna be the closer? Please don't say Duffy. 
I had a 5 but can't remember where I put it...
 
 
 
 

We are less than two weeks away from the 2022 Major League Baseball regular season. The free agent frenzy was every bit the excitement we had hoped for following the lockout and teams are largely complete at this point. The American League Central Division had just one Postseason participant, but the hope would be for two with the field expanding to 12 teams.
The Chicago White Sox return as the division winners and will look to carry that crown for a second season. While there’s no juggernaut here, it should be expected that there’s no cellar dweller either.
Here’s how I see the division shaking out with PECOTA projections in parentheses.
Chicago White Sox 89-73 (91-71)
Chicago really didn’t do a whole lot this winter, but they also really didn’t need to. Having Luis Robert and Eloy Jimenez for a full season will represent the greatest benefit they could gain from the offseason. Kendall Graveman makes an already good bullpen better, and Joe Kelly only enhances that. They should still have a very strong lineup, and the hope would be continued dominance from the rotation. There’s no doubt that they are the favorites here.
Minnesota Twins 85-77 (86-76)
If there’s a team that could go up or down more than almost any other in baseball it could be Minnesota. Byron Buxton is a superstar, and now he has a partner in Carlos Correa. How much resurgence could Gary Sanchez or Gio Ursehla find in their new home? Sonny Gray is a dependable arm, but from there it’s questionable veterans and untested rookies. If things go bad, it will likely be because the arms simply weren’t enough. This could be a very good team, a mediocre team, or a relatively bad team virtually all tied to what happens on the mound.
Detroit Tigers 77-85 (67-95)
Javier Baez’s deal with Detroit surprised many because of the assumed tie between Carlos Correa and A.J. Hinch. Baez has plenty of flaws but some of them are a bit overstated. He gives a winning presence to a team on the cusp. Riley Greene and Spencer Torkelson should be in the lineup soon, and Akil Baddoo turned out to be a bad man last year. I don’t know how well they’ll pitch, but acquiring Eduardo Rodriguez was a smart move.
Kansas City Royals 75-87 (70-92)
Prospects are the name of the game for the Royals. Bobby Witt Jr. looks like a superstar as does both M.J. Melendez and Nick Pratto. Salvador Perez put up insane numbers a season ago and will look to replicate that performance. Pitching is questionable here too, and I’m not sure Zack Greinke has much left in the tank. The bullpen is uninspiring, and there’s plenty of lineup holes. They’re getting better, but not there yet.
Cleveland Guardians 73-89 (77-85)
You don’t have to look much further than the newly named Guardians to find the Central’s most rudderless team. The farm system isn’t elite, but the Major League roster is also barren. Jose Ramirez is amazing, and a healthy Shane Bieber is lights out, but beyond that there’s very little to like here. A lot of post-hype prospects and guys that have ceilings they never got close to touching reside on this roster. Alongside their lack of spending this offseason, deciding not to blow it up was a weird path forward.
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I like many fans am frustrated with MLB & MLBPA. Both sides are equally to blame. I have shared ideas on how to end the stalemate in previous posts.  One of the simplest that touches on multiple aspects (tanking, draft, "pre-arb" player pool) Is simply to have a Draft Tournament. With all teams not making the playoffs playing in a single elimination tournament to decide the top draft pick and subsequent draft order. This hits on tanking and the draft, the additional new TV rights to these games could be used to fund the gap in the "pre-arb" player pool. or fund the WHOLE THING!!!  A win for MLBPA for getting the compensation they claim they want for young players, and MLB saves by using "new" money to fund it and not costing them any of the current revenues they are offering to fund the pool with.
But what I really want to share on this discussion, is how truly disingenuous the MLBPA really is. They SAY they are fighting for the younger players to earn more, they SAY this is not about the big stars but the "average guy" and the 30+yr old veteran. If this is true then they would not be fighting over CBT threshold, but fighting for a salary FLOOR, but that discussion was thrown out almost immediately. Lets ask ourselves. who benefits from a higher CBT threshold? Is it the average team? NO. it is the big market teams, with just a handful of of team willing and/or able to exceed the threshold, or even get CLOSE to it. Most teams have not comeclose to the current threshold because they cannot afford it. SO by raising the CBT threshold, will teams automatically spend more? Of course not!!! That is liek an average person saying... "hmmm, I that car dealer would finance that new 2021 vehicle for me at $50K max sales price, but I just cant afford it.  BUT WAIT!!! the 2022 version they will finance me for up to $75K!!!  OK ILL BUY IT!!!"  Obviosuly raising the CBT threshold only impacts a handful of teams. 
But since we are focusing on the MLBPA here, ask yourself, "what kind of player is most likely to be impacted by increasing the CBT threshold"?  Is it the average payer? is it the pre-arb? NO itis the superstar. MLB teams will go over the cap... ANY CAP, or spend UP TO the cap to sign players like Carlos Correa, Max SCherzer, Corey Seager, Kris Bryant, etc.  But would a team go over the cap to sign a player like say, Eddie Rosario, Jorge Soler, heck, even a player like Anthony Rizzo?  OF course not.  What will happen will be the rich get richer. the superstars instead of signing $30M AAV will get $36M AAV. They will still eat up most of money available, and again leave the average player, especially the 30+yr old veteran to settle for the leftovers. It is either that or teams use the underpaid "pre-arbs".
 
NOW, if there were a $100M salary FLOOR as opposed to top end CBT, NOW players would paid evenly. The top players mentioned above will still get their mega deals, because rich teams will spend regardless. Now that the lower revenue teams MUST spend, they will be forced to spend more on the average player. The team MUST spend the money anyways, whether they are planning to compete or rebuild. so now a rebuilding team can actually OVERPAY the 30+ yr old veteran. Teams would "overspend" on short 1-2 year deals. a player like Rizzo now could easily receive a $20M deal somewhere for 1 yr (or more) because again the money must be spent, and why not spend it on a contract that will be coming off the books by the next year?  Also if a team MUST spend the money anyways,  and do not want to pay a veteran to take AB's away from younger players, then they would "overpay" or at least increase the pay to their own young players. Take a team like Baltimore. lets say Adley Rutchsman is on the big league roster (and he should). If the Orioles are currently sitting well under the $100M threshold, would it not behoove them to pay Adley $10-20M or more this year if they have to spend the money anyways??  it helps build loyalty from teh players part, so nwo when he reaches Free Agency he may be more willing to give a "hometown discount"  to stay.  "Overpaying" pre-arb players becasue the money must be spent anyways woudl also then reduce the need of the "pre-arb pool".
 
A salary floor helps ALL, an increase in CBT only helps the superstars. the fact that the union is fighting for the wrong one shows their true colors.  The proof is in the pudding.  over the last 6 years, with INCREASING CBT thresholds, the average MLB salary has DECREASED!!  Just like other sports it has been and always will be a star driven league. and I don't even have an issue with that. but at least have the integrity to either say what you are actually fighting for, or actually fight for the things you say you are for.
Interested to hear thoughts

Happy Valentine's Day! Today as I watched all our other local sports teams post their annual Valentine's Day pun cards featuring their team's players, I connected the dots that the Twins can't do that this year because of the lockout. So, I made some cards instead! I hope you like them, and if not, I hope our love isn't ~Ober.~
 
All player images are courtesy of ESPN.com

Among my friends, I’m known as being a bit of a Minnesota sports optimist. I’m the type of person who, when it’s at the end of the NFL season and the Vikings hold a 11% chance of making it to the playoffs IF the Vikings beat the Packers at Lambeau, the Washington Football team beats the Eagles, AND the terrible, tanking Texans beat the Niners, I’m all in on following those scenarios.
Next week sounds like it will feature a marathon of bargaining sessions as the MLB and its owners and the MLB Players Association work to iron out differences in their CBA proposals. However, unless things really begin to pick up, we might be looking at the reality of a shortened regular season. But could a shortened season be good for the Twins on multiple fronts? Here is a look at a shortened season through an optimistic lens.
1. Smaller sample size
One of the truths of baseball is that most things tend to even out to their natural state by the end of the season in a theory called "Regression Towards the Mean." In all sports, there is certainly some luck involved. However, in baseball and its gauntlet of a 162 game regular season, over the long run most things average out, including batting averages, pitching performance, and wins for a team. But what happens if the season is short enough that things can’t regress to that mean? What if the Twins start hot and then just stay hot?
Twins leadership has maintained they anticipate being competitive in 2022 despite trading José Berríos to the Toronto Blue Jays at the MLB trade deadline last season and not pursuing any flashy free agent starting pitchers before the lockout commenced (we hardly ever do). I am not saying that I do not anticipate the Twins being competitive this season, but our favorite ballclub certainly has their work cut out for them once the lockout ends, including a pressing need to sign two starting pitchers, a starting shortstop, and a late-inning reliever. 
Thus, with such an uncertain rotation, glaring roster holes, and the jury still out on the future of some of their prospects like Royce Lewis, maybe the smaller the sample size for the Twins, the better. It seemed that last season was a perfect storm for the Twins in which the majority of their players were slumping or injured all at the same time. It is feasible the opposite could happen- multiple players could have career seasons. Maybe less games in 2022 would be beneficial to the Twins and if they started hot, would not allow them to regress to a mean which included statistics like finishing the 2021 season with the 17th best batting average at .241 and the 26th best ERA at 4.83. A somewhat anecdotal example illustrating sample size- do you favor the Twins' odds more in a one game playoff with the Yankees or a full series? ("Neither" is not an acceptable answer, thank you very much). There's sample size for ya.
Another note- the last time the Twins won the division it was in a small sample size 60-game season. More on that later.
2. Less injuries for star veterans
A shortened season would also benefit the Twins because less games means less wear and tear on their injury-prone stars. Josh Donaldson has struggled with recurring calf issues throughout his career- in a July 2020 Instragram post, Donaldson acknowledged that he’s torn “both of my calves a total of seven times in two years.” Calf issues held him to 28 games in 2020 and forced him to sit out of the playoffs that year. During the full 2021 season, Donaldson got in 135 games but was bothered by hamstring issues. He will be 36 for the 2022 season, and while he still can bring the rain, there is little doubt less games would be of great benefit to him.
The most evident beneficiary of a shorter season is Byron Buxton. To be clear, I was incredibly excited about the Buxton extension and did not remotely believe his injuries were a reason to not resign him, as many of his injuries have stemmed from somewhat freak occurrences like getting hit by a pitch (2020 and 2021) or fouling a ball off his toe (2018). To me, it is unfair to label him as being "made out of glass" from these instances of bad luck that could happen to anyone. Regardless, in looking at his game log through his entire Twins career- he has played triple digit games only once- 140 games in 2017. It is inarguable that the Twins are a much better team when Buxton is in the lineup; since the beginning of 2019, the Twins have played at a 99-win pace when Byron Buxton is in their starting lineup and an 81-win pace when he isn't. Therefore, less games would mean less wear and tear on their star centerfielder's body, which hopefully would result in him being in the starting lineup more regularly. More Buxton starts, more wins.
3. Games (almost) solely against AL Central teams

In 2020, the MLB faced another shortened season with only 60 games played due to the pandemic and boy, did it work out well for the Twins. During this season, the Twins played 10 games vs each of their four AL Central opponents and 20 games against NL opponents. The Twins won the American League Central division title for the second year in a row and had winning or .500 records against each of their AL Central opponents. The Twins were 13-7 in the 20 NL games they played. Maybe they just do better when avoiding beatdowns from the likes of the Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, and Athletics- if you can imagine that (sarcasm). A shortened season would probably follow a similar model; with little time to waste, divisional games would be prioritized.
If you dig into this 2021 wins matrix, you will see that despite the Twins having a decidedly disappointing season with their 73-89 record, the Twins played disproportionally well vs each of their AL Central opponents with the exception of the White Sox, who ran away with the AL Central title and had their most wins as a franchise since the 2005 season. Despite landing in last in the AL Central rankings, the Twins went 11-8 vs the Cleveland Guardians, 11-8 vs the Detroit Tigers, and 9-10 vs the Kansas City Royals. Of all the other AL teams the Twins faced, the only other AL series the Twins won were vs the tied-for-league-worst Baltimore Orioles, the Houston Astros, and the Texas Rangers. Every other AL series the Twins lost, thus making the fact that the Twins won or were almost .500 vs all their divisional opponents (yes, except the White Sox- but the Twins were 5-5 vs them in 2020 and we'll get 'em next year) significant. Nothing says they couldn't perform similarly well vs their division opponents in 2022.
Even though there is nothing more I would like to do more than try to beat my personal record for number of home games I attend during a Twins season, I take heart knowing that a shortened season could very well shake out in the Twins' favor. Just a little optimism for you on this windy, spring training-less day.
 
Feature photo: Fireworks Friday after a 6-4 loss to the Astros on June 11, 2021
Photo: Byron Buxton warming up in the on deck circle during an extremely hot and muggy game I attended on June 10, 2021. Buxton went yard twice and returned to the outfield in what was the first game of his Saints rehab stint.

Hey, it’s the Christmas season and there’s no real baseball on TV. Nor is there any real baseball news, and I don’t want to discuss one more time whether the Twins are in rebuild or retool mode.
But it’s a wonderful life, and there are movies to watch. On a recent road trip with my son, we tried to come up with the starting lineup on the All-Time Baseball Movie team. These are the fictional guys. It would be too easy to insert Lou Gehrig from Pride of the Yankees and Babe Ruth from any number of films.
Here’s what we’ve got. Add your comments and rebuttals below.
Leading off and playing center field, we have to go with the speedster Willie Mays Hayes from Major League. The original version, not Major League II, III or whatever they’re up to by now. When you hit like Mays and run like Hayes, you gotta be in the lineup. Hayes is a tough call in center over Kelly Leake from Bad News Bears and Benny “The Jet” Rodriguez from The Sandlot, but you clearly gotta keep the latter on the roster as a pinch runner.
Batting second and playing left field will be Shoeless Joe. I know that I said this is fictional and Joe Jackson was real, but the movie is clearly a fantasy, and we’re talking about perhaps the best-known character in the genre. With that line drive back through the box off Ray, he’s clearly adept at going with the pitch, a skill we’re looking for in our No. 2 hitter.
Batting third, where we want one of our best hitters, we have to go with The Natural, Roy Hobbs. He plays rightfield and has the lineup’s best walk-up music. If you don’t believe that, just stay after any minor league game for the fireworks show and you’ll get a listen.
It’s not intentional to have worked our way around the outfield with top three spots in the order, but it came out that way. We’re kinda going to continue that by finding a way to get Major Leaguer Pedro Cerrano’s bat in the lineup, which we’ll do in the cleanup spot as the DH. Movies don’t tend to have the DH in a starring role, but Jobu hits the fastball very much. Oh, and don’t steal his rum.
Catcher is tough. Some of the genre’s best characters are behind the plate. I know I’m going to get flack for not choosing Crash Davis from Bull Durham, but the dude’s a career minor league. Stay tuned, I’ve got a spot for him. Similarly, Jake Taylor from Major League is a gamer, a masterful bunter and a great handler of a pitching staff. And then there’s Hamilton Porter from The Sandlot. I don’t think I can go with him, but we need him on the bench – there can’t be a better bench jockey and trash talker in the league.
But all those pale compare to the one who truly was in a League of her (Their) Own, Dottie Hinson. She’ll woman the backstop and bat fifth.
Following her in the lineup and batting sixth is her teammate. Playing second base, we have the window breaking slugger, Marla Hooch.
First base is a hitter’s spot, but it’s actually a little weak in the movies. Granted, Clu Heywood leads the Major League in most offensive categories, including nose hair, but we only want the good guys on our team, so we can’t use him. Similarly, Mr. 3000 is just such a bad movie that I’m not going to use Stan Ross. That leaves us with another aging slugger, back from Japan, Mr. Baseball Jack Eliot, and he’ll bat seventh.
Third base is another sparse one. The potentially obvious choice here is Roger Dorn, but he pretty much showed himself a clubhouse cancer throughout Major League, so we’ll have to pass. Instead, we’ll go with our third pick from League of Their Own, Doris Murphy. She can rub teammates the wrong way, as witnessed by her taking on Kit Hinson after a rough game, but she’s clearly a gamer, the kind of player who want as a spark batting near the bottom of the lineup at No. 8.
Finally, we need a shortstop. Amazingly with such a glamour position, I couldn’t come up with a good standout shortstop from a baseball movie. I mean, with his way of coaching up teammates, it seems likely that “The Jet” Rodriguez could pull out his inner Cesar Tovar and play there, but I don’t think he actually does in the movie.
But I’ve got an unnamed sleeper. Unnamed in that I couldn’t remember his name ever being used in the movie. But you need defense up the middle, and with that final play to come in and bare hand the tipped ball to preserve the perfecto at the end of “For Love of the Game,” this unnamed guy will play short and bat ninth.
By contrast, though it may seem that the lineup is a bit weak at the bottom, we’ve got a loaded rotation. He is, by definition, a Rookie (of the Year), but with the bionic arm, Henry Rowengartner is in the mix. I like to work young guys in slowly, so I’m going to start him at No. 5 in the rotation.
And speaking of youth, we’ll have another youngster in the No. 4 spot, Amanda Wurlitzer from the Bad News Bears. Despite her youth, she does have championship experience, leading the Bears to the title game. At No. 3, we’ll go with Bingo Long from his Traveling All-Stars & Motor Kings. He’s based on Satchel Paige, so that’s impressive.
Picking between the top two spots were tough, but I had to go with experience. I like Ebby Calvin “Nuke” LaLoosh’s million dollar arm in Bull Durham, but I don’t want someone with a five-cent head getting the start on opening day, so he’ll have to wait for game two.
Which means that our opening day starter will be Billy Chapel from For Love of the Game. When you wrap up your Hall of Fame career with a perfect game and demonstrate that “the cathedral that is Yankee Stadium belongs to a Chapel,” you’ve shown you have the moxie to get the Opening Day start.
There’s several noteworthy candidates to fill out the staff while pitching out of the bullpen, including Kit Hinson from League of the Their and Eddie Harris from Major League, but we know that it will be the Wild Thing, Ricky Vaughn from Major League, marching out of the bullpen to close games after a stellar career in the California Penal League. The team’s top pitching prospect is the newly signed Rigo (“Peanut Boy”) Sanchez from Trouble with the Curve.
So there’s the roster. But before we get away, we have to recognize that it takes more than players to run a team. You need a coaching staff, for example, and baseball movies have given us a few. Because they formed the best manager/coach duo, our team will be led by Pop Fisher and Red Blow from The Natural. There are other noteworthy coach/managers who can fill out the coaching staff, namely Frank Perry (For Love of the Game), Jimmy Dugan (League of Their Own) and Lou Brown (Major League). I’m big on character, so it’s against my better judgment, but I did save a spot for Morris Buttermaker from the Bad News Bears. Also in the dugout will young Bobby Savoy (The Natural) as our batboy.
Billy Heywood from Little Big League was a choice for the coaching staff, but I realized that he has to be the team owner, since several other of the team owners portrayed are dirtbags. Think of Rachel Phelps from Major League and The Judge from The Natural. Heywood’s more seasoned ownership partners include Gary Wheeler (For Love of the Game) and candy bar mogul Walter Harvey (League of Their Own).
Also in the team’s administration is GM Ira Lowenstein (League of Their Own). He oversees a scouting staff that includes by Gus Lobel (Trouble with the Curve) and Ernie Capadino (A League of Their Own). The latter is known for his skill in negotiating contracts, as demonstrated in signing the Hinson sisters. For astutely observing how much better Pete Taylor has been playing since his parents came to visit, Pete Klein (Trouble with the Curve) will head the team’s analytics department. Heading the scouting staff, and likely working her way up to GM on her own, is Mickey Lobel from Trouble with the Curve.
With such a varied range of experience on our team, there are bound to be injuries, and we’ve got the best possible medical staff in place. Heading the group is Doc Archibald (Moonlight) Graham from Field of Dreams. Assisting him, with specializations in providing CPR and overseeing the pool at the training facility is Wendy Peffercorn from The Sandlot.
A team like this needs a place to play, and fortunately they have stadium architect extraordinaire Ray Kinsella (Field of Dreams). As noted above, I do have a backup plan for Crash Davis. He’ll assist Ray as groundskeeper, with particular expertise in managing the irrigation system. Also of note in game day management is Frank Drummond (Naked Gun), who will serve as stadium security. He’s also been known to fill in for Enrico Polazzo in singing the National Anthem.
A team like this certainly deserves media coverage. Again, there’s lots to choose from in the broadcasting department, since using an announcer is often part of what helps the plot flow in sports movies. They’re playing themselves, so our rules keep us from naming John Gordon (Little Big League), Vin Scully (For Love of the Game) and Curt Gowdy, Jim Palmer, Tim McCarver, Mel Allen, Dick Enberg and Dick Vitale, all from Naked Gun. But even if that rule didn’t apply, the broadcasting gig would still have to go to Harry Doyle from Major League.
And finally, we need someone to wax eloquent and write Roger Angell-like essays. The clear choice for that would be Terrance Mann.
So, how’d I do? Who’d I miss?