I am in NO WAY saying that Swarzak was better than May, BUT: In 2011 Swarzak had a quality start percentage of 73% (8/11), but was back in the bullpen out of Spring Training the next season, and never got into the rotation. May's career MLB QS% is 36% (9/25).
I wasn't looking for a "norm" to demonstrate that there ARE exceptions to your "rule". I was looking for an exception to demonstrate that there ARE exceptions
Regression to the mean is an actual thing but it is NOT required.
Paul Molitor had the best seasons of his career after he turned 30:
AGE OPS
27 0.484
28 0.764
29 0.765
30 1.003
31 0.836
32 0.818
33 0.807
34 0.888
35 0.851
36 0.911
37 0.927
38 0.772
Regression can be overcome by improving one's game.
Unless you can look ahead (or back) and see that Pinto would become concussed and no longer be a reasonable option despite a .964 OPS in 2013. You guys knew all along that would happen, but the Twins failed to sign a Free Agent Psychic.
If you discount the possibility of "IMPROVEMENT", I guess everyone reverts back to their normal self, and you can say it's "predictable". I say, that is bleep.
"Difficult to acquire" and even MORE difficult to forecast. Even the Yankees didn't foresee Cervelli's emergence with the Pirates. Wnen posters compare THEIR hindsight with the Twins' foresight, it is easy to second-guess the Twins "missed opportunities".
Summary of above study: "However, at least in my opinion, beginning a career in professional baseball out of high school gives a pitcher a greater chance for both longevity and success as a big leaguer"
"Five of the 15 pitchers have had major surgery that has cost them a year of development or more' Do you know of any study on the % of drafted pitchers vs. the % of drafted college pitchers in MLB who have had major surgery before reaching the Big Leagues?
I have no doubt that you aren't excited. That is caused, IMO, because you underrate Murphy, Hicks and Centeno who are all excellent defensively. We will know more later, but until then, your lack of excitement is under your own jurisdiction.
This is your version of "We've had backup catcher covered for quite some times"? Drew Butera* 2008-2013 Eric Fryer* 2012-2015 Chris Herrmann* 2009, 2011-2015 Steve Holm 2011 Jose Morales 2006-2010 Josmil Pinto* 2012-2015 Rene Rivera* 2011-2012
I think he means that he disagrees with the opinion stated in the headline and the first post. (as do I) The pros and cons of the trade, on the other hand, are certainly debatable and post-worthy (128 posts so far)!
I don't know how. Nobody I know is an MLB GM. I wasn't assessing your posting ability. I was assessing JR Murphy's ceiling as better than competent, rather than accepting the assessments of the Chief and you. IMO, all three of our assessments are suspect, compared to that of Joe Girardi and the two GM's.
"Competent" is a word chosen by another poster who may also be described as "competent". Murphy was the #4 Yankee prospect in 2014. He signed for $1.25 million, much more than me, and I know that I am better than "competent". If you want better than competent, you have to give up more than a CF with a career-BA of .225
I was sure you could tell them apart. Orlando is a very good baseball player. Oswaldo is a guy with a bad haircut. Orlando is a long shot for the HOF. (Hall of Fame). Oswaldo is a slam-dunk for the HOF. (Haircuts of Fools)