ToddlerHarmon

Exactly what I came here to say. You are describing Mark Guthrie in 1992. Not a mop-up guy whose performance level is unlikely to matter much, but a multi-inning, effective reliever who lets you survive a short start without sacrificing either that game or the whole next week of bullpen effectiveness.

One of the few having Miranda this high. But all the projections have him in the top 4 in WAR, so you may be right. I agree on the high floor. Part of what I was curious about was whether anyone sees the ceiling as an actually dangerous lineup. Maybe that is less important than avoiding the wasteland of last September's lineups, or the lineups against lefties all year long.

Very thorough, thank you! I thought Buxton batting cleanup was a no-brainer, but a lot of people still dreaming of him hitting leadoff. You nail the reasoning for cleanup - he is the best power hitter we have, and it doesn't hurt that some of that SLG comes from taking an extra base. Even the analytics/simulators seem to like your best hitters at 2, 4, and 1, with OBP being the decider for batting higher It looks like you also like Larnach over Kepler. That seems a popular opinion in this thread

Julien leading off would be nice, if the minor league numbers translate.

"Likely peak" is more the spirit of the question, or I would have 2019 Kepler batting fifth :) I was going to say Lewis would push Larnach out of the lineup, but good-case probably has Larnach better than Kepler. The FO might be hoping Kepler is more tradeable by mid-summer with this lineup in mind.

I'm not sold on trading away Polanco and hoping on Julien, but it is yours to dream. My guess is best Miranda > best Larnach > best 2023 Lee, but not outlandish to flip this over.

It's getting time to speculate on the Opening Day lineup, so let's try with a twist: given this 40-man roster, what is the lineup you dream on - peak performances, no injuries, no managerial biases or brain farts? Mine: Polanco 2B Correa SS Kirilloff 1B Buxton CF Gallo LF Miranda 3B Larnach DH Vazquez C Kepler RF Thoughts? Is there a better DH option than Larnach? Solano? Julien? Would the defense/offense tradeoff be better with Farmer at 3B and Miranda at DH? Is there a better leadoff option than Polanco? Do you stack Buxton and Correa back to back? Do you move Gallo up to third and ride the OBP? Is peak Kepler better than this?

As a fan, it's always hard to judge, but my eye test says that the baserunning and defense are not being executed to these players' talents, which I put down to preparation level, and see as the manager's responsibility. How much of that is minor leaguers being thrown into the fire due to injury? Hard to tell. But I suspect that too many meltdowns and gaffes in close games or against tough competition are in the offing. By the numbers, I know that our baserunning is abysmal. Anyone got other evidence to support my grumpy bias?

Well, if the Twins want everyone throwing 100, with a frisbee slider they throw half the time, then they are *all* gonna be relief pitchers. In which case maybe just lean into it and piggyback 4 starters with 4 other starters, and have a 5-man one-inning pen. They actually have the personnel this year to do exactly that: Ryan, Gray, PLopez, Maeda as primaries Mahle, Ober, Varland, Winder as secondaries Duran, JLopez, Alcala, Thielbar, Pagan as the pen With SWR, Henriquez, Jax, Moran, Megill, Santana, Sands, and Balazovic in St Paul Never gonna happen, but they aren't going to suddenly start stressing tricky 92 MPH fastballs that let pitchers go 7 innings, either. Le sigh.

"Everyone was just there, being, as one. Can’t wait to see what he brings to the clubhouse." I like how you worked in a real post-game Baldelli quote.

Even without injuries, is he maybe competition for Gordon's roster spot?

2: Sonny Gray's four-seamer: -11 RV ... 1: Joe Ryan's four-seamer: -21 RV Cue "that escalated quickly" meme

Nice, unexpected observation! I wonder how many of those 16 infield dots in the spray chart were when he was shifted. Fun to imagine the havoc in opposing infields, and the frustration of pitchers deciding whether to pitch up to avoid a .400 average on grounders or down to avoid upper deck home runs. Aside: can someone interpret the spray chart dots for me? Are they where the ball hit the ground first, or where it was fielded? I'm guessing number 1, but I don't want to assume...

That is exactly how I read this

Thanks for the well researched and fascinating history. And the reference to Foster besting Rube Waddell reminded me of this link that the stats lovers should find fascinating: https://www.baseball-reference.com/articles/negro-leagues-major-leagues-todd-peterson.shtml The link provides statistical evidence that the Negro Leagues were at least equal to the white "major leagues" of their time. Wonderfully done and eye opening for those of us raised on legends of Hornsby, Ruth, and Cobb, but not Foster, Gibson, and Paige.