twinstalker

I'm still a little scared Correa thought he was signing with the Marlins.

I haven't seen it reported, but the obvious thing here is that Correa will have an option each year to accept the vesting guarantee or opt for free agency. He's not going to kick butt for 9 years, say, and accept $10 million that 10th season, which is what the vesting guarantees. And that's totally fine. If the Twins get five mostly healthy seasons out of the next six, they made a good deal. If they get three or less, it could be a blocker to adding other talent. The fact that the Mets were willing to go six years makes me feel better.

Wrong direction again. This isn't Christmas morning, we know what's under the tree.

Content for content's sake!

This might be the easiest ever, yet you have it wrong! Arraez is never playing 2B. Lee plays there, Miranda is at 3B. Arraez is utility/DH. Weird possibility is Lewis at 2B, Lee at SS.

Twins signed Jason Castro for 3/27 a number of years ago. Seems pretty much the same. Better defensively, better health, but an old catcher, and catchers age horribly.

For the most part, being old for your level makes you a non-prospect, and it's rare that evaluators are wrong there. If Cardenas put up those numbers as a 19 yr old (see EmRod), there would be a lot of hype. You may get a Garver now and then out of the hundreds of late-drafted (3rd rd or later) hitters putting up decent stats at a league they're too old for. I'd be more hyped for that catcher we got from the Dodgers along with Maeda. I think he's the same age and two levels ahead. He had a .778 OPS at Wichita.

Nothing can go wrong. He's a lock to be a perennial all-star starting with as soon as the Twins call him up. What were other teams thinking? He's obviously the best player in the draft, except for the player we would have gotten if Lee had already been picked.

I'm not sure why two axes were needed to display this. We know record is related to run differential.

New title suggestion: 3 Reasons Any Farm System Ranking Drops

First, thanks for this each and every night. Such an ugly farm. At least when CES and Speer were there, there was something to hope for. But as ugly as it is, there's no way Noah Miller should be ranked 7th. You seriously are going to put a future utility guy (and not the good type) as the 7th best prospect? I'd take him off altogether and start dragging up the names Acuna and Mercedes to see what kind of injuries they'll sustain once ranked.

The top college players usually start at A+ (after possibly a few ABs at the home site), though part of that history may have to do with the A+ FSL teams being at the home sites for so long. Anyway, yeah, top college = A or A+ but it's A+ for top college hitters unless there's an issue. And while I guess you give Miller a chance to play SS everyday, that won't last long as he'll soon be getting experience at all positions even if he happens to be the best SS in the org. If he were ever expected to hit, he would have been a top draft choice instead of rated as the ~75th best player and then overdrafted by the Twins.

The only question with this trade is whether Fulmer is good with the Twins.

Twins were exceptionally lucky to draft four guys of value in 2021 (I've believed they screwed up drafting Noah Miller, who really, really looked like a Jace Peterson type before they drafted him). That helped a really depleted farm system, and now we're back to that. I highly doubt you can count on that sort of thing again. Now the Twins are looking at two starters who are crappy and three who are done after 2023 (Gray, Mahle, Maeda) with very little left to replace them in the system. They'll have Ryan, Ober, and cross your fingers after that. No one that right now you can even count on to provide depth really. I think it's difficult to assess this one. Steer and CES are higher floors but probably have low ceilings at their eventual positions. Hajjar may not have been a game-changer here and probably won't be in Cincinnati. But I think they all would have helped the Twins. Basically, I think it comes down to the Twins developing their talent better, because there's very little left that will have a big impact. Lewis, Rodriguez, and maybe Brooks Lee (college bats have a terrible track record) and the rest of the top ranked are mediocre or garbage. SWR and Austin Martin and Matt Wallner and Winder (inj) and Balazovic and such as top ten does not cut it in the least. So, I don't know. Just pretty sure the Twins are in a bit of trouble in a few years wrt the farm system between what it was already and trading four top guys (note they were four of the best despite their ratings, they were the ones wanted after Lewis and Rodriguez). Time to start hyping Bryan Acuna!

The Twins gave up a lot. A lot. I could stomach this for Castillo, but it's going to have to go really well for this to make sense for me with Mahle.

He has six losses? That's a lot. How many blown saves? I like that the Twins didn't just look at their own experience with Lopez like they did with Craig Monroe.

I must be missing something. How does Kepler hold more trade value than Kirilloff or Miranda? Trust me, if he did, the Twins would trade him. I happen to have all three in my simulation fantasy (keeper) leagues, and Miranda is the one everyone wants. Nobody wants Kepler. And we don't have salaries or contracts running out.

Does it matter that Montas might be injured and potentially useless for the next 1.5 years? I mean, it mattered to me when they traded for Paddack, which is why I didn't like the trade.

And Berrios was healthy. I could see Speer and one of the others but only if Montas is deemed healthy by someone other than Falvine looking at the medicals the Giants, er, sorry, the Athletics provide. Also, is Montas domestically docile? Only asking because it would be nice if someone, anyone, asked that question when acquiring a player. Okay, I'm a little jaded from other times Falvey has tried to add help.

It appears the Twins really had a "diamond in the rough" day 2. I think it's going to take at least 2.5 mil to sign Prielipp, maybe 3 mil. The underslotting I think starts with Schobel, perhaps by 500k. His slot is 1 mil, but the slot for where he was ranked is around 200k. This is where the Twins will get most of the money for Prielipp. As it's not yet enough, voila! Day 2's draft. I'm not as confident in the Twins finding those diamonds on the infield as I am on the mound, and I'm not sure what sort of input Wes Johnson had on draft day, so my fingers are crossed that they found a couple of prospects on Day 2.

If you're not batting .350+ in college, you're probably never going to hit in MLB, so I wouldn't be all that impressed,

Keep in mind no prospect is a utility guy for trading purposes!

I think once you get past the second round, you're more likely to get a good catcher by 1) trading for one, 2) converting a 2B, or 3) internationally. I think getting a good MLB catcher like Garver in rounds 3-10 is incredibly rare. I'd want most of those picks to be pitchers, especially if my org really knows what it's looking for in pitching, which ours does. Remember, the Twins were able to get Jeffers in the 2nd round mostly because he was a horrible catcher in college (by MLB standards). Luckily, they may have understood his situation better than other teams.

Parada is the one who might have been a better pick, though my limited knowledge had me leaning Lee. For those who say Parada won't stick at catcher, I'm ready to bet on that one. He might eventually move, but I doubt that would be in his first five MLB years. Having that (projected) bat at catcher is a huge advantage for a team. I see him making it to MLB in three years, being kind of meh in 2025 and maybe fitting in by the next year. The Mets now have Parada and Francisco Alvarez, so that will be interesting, but having two really good ones isn't the worst thing. They can each catch half the time and DH 1/4 of the time maybe.

It would have been fun to figure out the money for Brock Porter, but that was a pipe dream. The Twins are obviously trying to find a second Speer with this pick. He doesn't appear to naturally project as an MLB regular. I would have preferred a pitcher, but I don't really have much of an opinion when it gets to this point in the MLB draft. If he has a good hit tool, that's mostly what I care about in hitters.