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twinstalker

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Everything posted by twinstalker

  1. twinstalker
    I think the injury might be the break he's needed. The Twins can't seem to keep him off their bench. With all the other injuries (and more to come), I could just see him breaking camp with them once again. As is, he'll maybe get transferred to the 60-day at some point when the Twins need, say, Garlick. He'll hang with the complex getting work in for a while, then have his 20 day rehab. By that time, someone else will be eligible for the 60, they won't have to drop Garlick. They can then drop GC to AAA. But to GC, it will just be rehab and then AAA for most of the year. He needs that.
  2. twinstalker
    But the onus isn't on me. He's currently a minor league player. To reject that null hypothesis, you need evidence otherwise. Hitting 2-3 batting practice type HRs is not evidence. Hitting well vs major leaguers midway through spring training might be. On the other hand, striking out 8 of 17 PAs at that early, early stage is a red flag. So far he's struck out more at the minor league levels than moving to the majors will withstand. 25% at AA becomes 35% at MLB. Julien has a chance to be an MLBer, maybe a decent one, but I'd suggest the truer evidence against the type of pitching he's faced (first outings, slow straight balls, many bad pitchers) is the inability to put the ball in play rather than the fact three have gone over the fence when he does hit it. He's on the 40, so injuries can allow for anything to happen, but if you were to infer anything from the first 17 plate appearances in spring training, it should be that he's not ready.
  3. twinstalker
    You're suggesting a guy who's never played above AA, who has a K rate of 47% in spring training where pitchers are at the point of just trying to get the ball over the plate, should maybe be in the Twins lineup?
  4. twinstalker
    Well, then you're in luck!
  5. twinstalker
    I wouldn't get ahead of ourselves wrt Lee. He had a debut at A+ that's in the normal range for a high pick without a ton of upside left. A few games at AA mean nothing. Coach's kids don't often have a lot left to learn. He's no doubt a major leaguer waiting to happen, but how good is very much yet to be determined. We always judge our prospects by their 99th percentile outcomes, their best-case scenarios. That's the main reason for both the disappointment and delusion that we're cursed. We also forget about the success of a meh prospect like Luis Arraez as if we deserve him getting close to his 99th..
  6. twinstalker
    My first thought is they realized Kirilloff isn't close, and they're moving Miranda to 1B. Paranoia, maybe, but with a sliver of logic.
  7. twinstalker
    Other than Boras clients never doing these things, this would be a relevant topic. I've often thought over the past years (given Kirilloff and Lewis) that it will be Boras non-extensions that will be the breakup of Falvine and Boras. This front office sold its soul to Boras, and they will find out why this is a bad thing, though apparently the weirdest scenario ever could play out (see Correa).
  8. twinstalker
    Not all that good. Was that the question?
  9. twinstalker
    Um, satire isn't satire when you have to explain it. Is this what the world has come to, that we have to explain that we're just kidding? Anyway, nothing is funny that starts off by explaining that it isn't real. We (hopefully) fully understand it's going to be satire, but it's ruined anyway. Have you ever had someone show you something and say this is really, really funny? It never is.
  10. twinstalker
    If you can take Falvey at his word, this is, um, a nearly fire-able statement (or will be). There are so many issues and potential issues with this pen that to not add a very quality arm to it is a crime. Ever since the Twins last had some good bullpens 17+ years ago, the front office and field staff have been overestimating its quality. Alcala? Injured. Duran? Regression and/or injury possibility. Lopez? Well, he's sucked his whole career except for the four months prior to coming here. Moran? Doesn't throw the ball over the plate enough. Thielbar? He was out of professional baseball not long ago. Megill? Well, he sort of stinks. Jax? He was decent for one year and could easily regress. Pagan? Do I have to say it? Adding a guy like Fulmer would be huge and is definitely necessary.
  11. twinstalker
    I don't think health has impacted Larnach's performance. He's just not that good. His K rate is 33% in MLB and 29% at AA/AAA with a minors OPS of .824. We have to stop thinking our guys are good because they're our guys. Can Larnach be a marginal major leaguer? Sure. Can he have a blip season with very good numbers? Possibly some year. But I think that's what you're looking at. This maybe more accurately could have been about Kirilloff. The baseball savants I hang with think he's crap, and I think that's unfair. MLB K rate: 23% AA/AAA: 18%, minors OPS .895 He's been much younger vs his minors competition than Larnach was, too. So people who think AK is meh really don't get that his wrist has been the problem (even his one average-ish minor league season, he had a wrist injury), whereas Larnach actually is meh, and the real problem is people overrated him.
  12. twinstalker
    Sabato was a very Cleveland-like pick. Thanks, Falvey! Glad to see Noah Miller wasn't on the list and is instead probably around #40 on your list if you had gone down that far. He's been overrated a ton, so happy to see we're not doing that this time by giving him #25 or something. Heh, imagine giving a guy whose 99th %ile is utility infielder a ranking as high as 21-30. That would be embarrassing. It's stated that Yunior Severino will be one year younger than his competition this year at AA. Maybe so, but more importantly, he's older than any real prospect would be. That doesn't preclude him from making the majors, but we shouldn't sugarcoat where he's at. Hopefully something has clicked, but I doubt he'll impact anything in MLB. I like high upside guys in the 21-30 slots, and his ceiling is pretty low right now. Like Acuna (at 2B probably), De Andrede (loved his swing before Twins even signed him), Headrick, and even Cole Sands as potential help for the Twins eventually. Chourio may be too big a lottery ticket for me to rank as high as 30, but I really don't know that I know any of the names that should be below him, except I guess Noah Miller and Aaron Sabato. Guess which Twins minor leaguer I don't understand people's infatuation with? :-)
  13. twinstalker
    Well, signs are pointing to Twins Daily no longer being available to me. I'm unlikely to pay for anything new (tough times), and for whatever reason all ads and the videos here I can't unblock. It seems easy. I follow the instructions, but my computer is so well protected, so many layers, I can't seem to be successful. Not just here but anywhere that asks me to unblock ads for their site. I go into my Chrome and do what they say. I go into my Kaspersky security and allow whatever site to show ads. Haven't gotten sites with ads to show still. Googled the hell out of it to no avail. Any extra suggestions?
  14. twinstalker
    If only there were something they could do to help keep Covid from having a big effect. Aw, let's cost the team money and games instead!
  15. twinstalker
    Yes, that is the one and only alternative to what I said. Thanks. I wasn't the one saying the Twins need to develop more pitching. I was pointing out they're not really trying to do that relative to their options. Maybe they had no real hope for Hajjar and Povich, but if they did, it seems they're not getting out of the cycle they're in by trading the guys next in line after Varland and SWR. Or what I really meant was they should have just not tried to win last year.
  16. twinstalker
    You'd think, though, they'd want to add a pitcher who wasn't injured.
  17. twinstalker
    Trade prospects? Let's put it this way: right now our most dependable outfielder or 1B is Nick Gordon. There is little reason to think Larnach, Kepler, Kirilloff, Gallo, Celestino, or even Buxton (health-wise) will ever live up to what we'd hoped for them. It's currently looking like a swamp of mediocrity. Unless there's a breakthrough or two, the Twins are going to need to replace most of these guys.
  18. twinstalker
    So what's the reasoning behind trading Petty, Hajjar, and Povich if they're trying to develop pitching for sustainability? Better put, the more candidates, the more likely one or more develop. Chances of even one of Raya, Festa, or the others we know at similar stages will be a solid Twins SP are low.
  19. twinstalker
    Great idea! As long as we can get pitchers to throw fastballs down the middle of the plate, we have to look no further.
  20. twinstalker
    I'm just thankful the Twins are thinking ahead as to how they can give up talent for another average, injured starter. Maybe mediocre's a better word.
  21. twinstalker
    And cross-your-fingers hope for the best case scenario is almost always worse than the doctor's rec. That's what we're all doing. We should at least admit it.
  22. twinstalker
    But the bases are bigger, and Carlos isn't going to steal any of them. You missed that one. I'm hesitantly happy the Twins got him. I wasn't a big fan of the last contract due to it not really solving anything. It just gave us Correa for a year and put the team/payroll at great risk. Now we're risking the same $$$ for multiple years, but it feels like we've probably solved one of the many issues with the team.
  23. twinstalker
    I think Lewis becomes a super-utility guy concentrating mainly on shortstop. The Twins will need somone to take over for Correa when he goes down for a period or maybe can't play there anymore, and I don't see another regular-quality SS in the Twins organization after Farmer leaves or get older. I'm not sure whether it's 2B or 3B for Lee, but I sort of think they'll stick him at one of those places and keep him there. Maybe after seeing him in both spots in 2024. Martin is a huge question mark. How much does the Twins trying to change his swing account for his suckiness? How much is the wrist/hand to blame? I do think the Twins need to stop worrying about his lack of power and let him do what he does best, which may be a fourth OF who can get on base I rather think it sucks that Garlick was DFA'd. I'd almost rather do that to Larnach, but of course that would be admitting a mistake.
  24. twinstalker
    We have to trust what they are doing? Never. They've given so little reason to trust them thus far, and now they're dealing with $$$ that could substantially hurt them to lose in upcoming seasons. So, no, I will not trust them. My fingers are just crossed that they get lucky with this one. They obviously are accepting risk far beyond what other, free-spending teams will. That's very unlikely good process, but, again, maybe we get lucky. I do think the Twins had a bit of an advantage here. Correa's contract was too huge for SF to take any risk. He was going to screw up their payroll, maybe insurance wasn't available, and they didn't really get a chance to shorten the contract. The Mets offered $157.5 million, but that's really $300 million worth of spending for them, and maybe between insurance, risk, expenditure, and the multiple good prospects they have, that was their limit. Plus, this wasn't for a shortstop. I'll be okay with four mostly healthy years over the course of the six, but any less is crippling.
  25. twinstalker
    I still doubt that Correa will have no choice but to accept a bad salary. Why even put that in the contract, if you're Boras? I can see the first year or two, maybe, because that's just making up for paying so much up front, Maybe you're right, but I have to believe Correa won't be playing for $10 million then. He'd probably retire.
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