Darius

You could delete “at the Winter Meetings,” a silk pose a valid question. People will point to Cruz, but I don’t consider 1 year 14 million with a 12 million team option major. Ervin Santana 5 years ago? Ricky Nolasco? (Keep in mind the full value of those contracts was barely more than one year a Cole’s contract from the Yankees this year). What a depressing franchise to root for.

He may be better than I think. But, it’s still gross roster mismanagement for a legitimate World Series contender to be running a guy like this out there in the ALDS against the Yankees. It kind of throws the legitimate World Series contender thing out the window.

I’m sorry, Phil Mackey.....but, no, you’re the moron.

Hope? Or something to sell? It’s literally their job to attempt to instill hope to keep people coming back and reading articles. Why on earth would they say, “look, this off-season is really going to suck. Nothing to see here for a few months”? Having hope is one thing. But, constantly chiding the numerous Twins’ fans that are tired of always being sold false hope as if they’re stupid for not buying it is another. Are we really only supposed to come around here to father and collectively lie to ourselves? What has this front office shown that is different than the previous? We’re really pointing to a 1 year $6.5M deal to Logan Morrison and a 2 year $16M deal to a spent reliever as the shining example of a sea-change? How is comparing this FO to the previous I regards to free agency so ridiculous that it requires insulting someone’s intelligence (if you think saying “the fastest way to lose is credibility, etc.” is anything more than a passive-aggressive way of doing just that, you’re wrong)? Because they signed Logan freaking Morrison? I don’t know if it’s intentional or delusion, but some of these free agency forums are like a Twilight Zone episode. I just don’t know how people buy into it so much that they outright deny some of these things. I get the writers motivation (need to generate readable columns and excitement). But your average reader/fan? Is it ass kissing? Do they think it makes them “enlightened?” A need to feel included? A coping mechanism to get through year after year of the same? I’m genuinely confused.

I don’t think Madbum would fare very well in an AL stadium with a short porch in LF. Ever since Gleeman attempted to enlightened everyone to the reality of Madbum around the trade deadline, I’ve been anti Madbum. This is all relative, of course. Get him on a 1-2 year deal for #3 money, I’m all in. Paying him $20 million/year for 4/5 years, given how that would totally hamstring this FO going forward.....awful move. If I knew I was a fan of a club that was passionate about investing in a quality on-field product, I’d think it’s a risk worth taking. But, I’m guessing it’ll the the last “big splash” signing for some time with a lot of younger guys needing extensions in the near future (Berrios, Buxton, possibly more). I’d rather it be a player that is a known commodity. Not a prayer of a return to 4 years ago.

I don’t really know how to judge this. On one hand, you expect some rookie struggles. So, it’s a positive sign that there wasn’t a whole lot of that’s. On the other, there wasn’t one rookie who saw a high number of appearances/innings, which could also explain some level of success (lack of familiarity from opposing clubs/hitters). I do know that I don’t trust the guys from last year. Just because Smeltzer and Dobnak looked good in limited appearances, doesn’t mean they are going to be quality pieces going forward. I think that if either of those guys are rotation fixtures throughout 2020, we’re in trouble. With a healthy Cleveland (Kluber, Ramirez, Lindor injuries were massively helpful to the Twins) and the White Sox looking ready to turn the corner, the status quo is going to land us in third place. My point is, I put almost no stock into the accomplishments listed above. I’d rather go out and get good pitchers than cobble together a AAAA staff/bullpen and pray.

I like the move. Castro is probably looking for more money/years. I don’t know what the two players’ fly ball numbers are, but I’m not ruling out that Castro’s power was related to ball. It’s possible that Avila is a rough equivalent offensively with an “unjuiced” ball (assuming they league actually switches back and it wasn’t just a playoff thing). There is a lot of worry about losing Cron for some reason around here. He’s just not a player that’s good enough to be concerned about. I’d, personally, rather have Garver over there to keep his bat in the lineup, if possible. Worst case scenario is Marwin getting significant time over there until someone like Rooker or Kirillof can make it up, which could very well be in 2020. If they go get a 3B like Donaldson, Sano could get plenty of time over there. There will be guys like Cron sitting around late in the free agency period, maybe even Spring Training. IMO, Cron’s defense over there was pretty overrated. He was decent, but it’s still first base. There isn’t a position on the diamond where defensive ability matters less. If I’m the Twins FO, first base is on the bottom of my priority list for the next couple of months.

Love it. Very good deal, and really solidifies the back end of the rotation. Still plenty of money laying around to target an decent pitcher like Ryu, Bumgarner, Keuchel and a bat for the infield. I don’t even mind that he can’t pitch right away. We saw how effective he could last year under a somewhat limited load.

If all we get is MadBum in terms of rotation help, I’ll be bummed (pun intended). The guys isn’t what he used to be. He’s borderline washed. He pitches in the NL. For all the Kyle Gibson haters, his ERA away from his pitcher friendly home ballpark since 2017 is over 4.20. Kyle Gibson has been blasted around here for a career ERA of around 4.5 while pitching in the AL. Be prepared for outrage around here. Many seem to think our pitching coach will magically unlock something in this guy. Why do we think that? Aside from a month or two of Martin Perez pitching out of his mind, what has our pitching staff really accomplished? The Odorizzi “turnaround” isn’t as cut and dried as some would like it to be (he’s throwing harder but pitching fewer innings...chicken/egg). Our bullpen imploded. Berrios underperformed, IMO. We got absolutely shelled by any team with a competent offense. On top of that, Bumgarner is aging and has a ton of mileage in his arm. On top of that, he doesn’t throw particularly hard from the left side. Target Field has a shirt porch in right. Not sure that’s a combination that’ll work out very well. Would I hate the signing? No. But, I couldn’t disagree more with those who think this would be a huge difference maker. Wouldn’t be surprised to see Gibson get healthy and have a better year than Bumgarner next year.

Just once, I’d like to see this franchise identify the guy the want and go after him aggressively. Pay the money it takes, instead of low-balling. Quit screwing around and getting cute. They need to quit waiting for things to “play out,” and pinching pennies. If you’re not willing to spend any money, why should your fans? If not after a 100-win season with overall payroll numbers that Yankees and Red Sox invest into their urinal cakes....then when? It’s not over yet, but I’m getting less confident with every player that comes off the board.

Did I really read above that someone wants to take the best defensive CF of all time and put him at 1B? There truly must be nothing to talk about right now.

I know it won’t happen, but Rendon could be the piece that gets this team over the hump. Kepler, RF Polanco, SS Rendon, 3B Cruz, DH Garver, C Sano, 1B Rosario, LF Arraez, 2B Buxton, CF Marwin, Cave, etc off the bench. The defense, especially with Buxton healthy, would be solid. The lineup is easily the best in the MLB. Rendon brings another layer of “been there,” along with Cruz and Marwin. There should be plenty of payroll left to address the pitching staff (id bring back Pineda and a guy like Ryu to slot into the 3-4 holes). That’s a legitimate World Series contender (not a pretender like last year). Now, back to reality. I wonder how cheaply we’ll get Ivan Nova and Jedd Gyorko.

Minnesota and Minnesota sports is engrained into my DNA. It wasn’t really ever a choice. I was a young child when the Twins won their pair of World Series titles. It’s one of the few memories I hang onto from that young age. There is nothing on the planet that is more nostalgic than the “We’ll see you tomorrow night,” call. Merely hearing the names Kirby Puckett, Dan Gladden, Greg Gagne, Gary Gaetti, Jack Morris, Shane Mack, Kevin Tapani, etc. brings me back to childhood. Images, smells, emotions. Being regaled with stories of Carew, Killebrew, etc by the elders of the family. There was no better time/place to be alive, let alone a sports fan, than the late 80s early 90s in rural Minnesota in my mind. It genuinely makes me emotional recalling those times and the people in my life then who have long-since passed on. In a good way, as opposed to a sad one. People like to get on me about my criticism of ownership and high level management of this franchise over the years. But, I take the gross mismanagement and overall cheapness/lack of passion by those in charge personally. My emotional investment is huge. I feel, in a way, that they are depriving myself of reliving that time, and numerous others (especially young kids) of having something so special and uniting between family members, especially having my own children now. It goes far beyond being just a game. I was nearly back there in the 00s. But, now there’s just something (hope) missing. Knowing, from day 1 of the season...even in seasons like last years....that there is no legitimate/reasonable chance of getting back to that promised land is demoralizing.

The market on pitchers being driven up is worst case scenario for those still holding out hope that the Twins may actually loosen the purse strings this offseason. I get the feeling we’re all going to be pretty frustrated with our sitting place when the music stops. I’m bracing myself. Think about this: The White Sox just signed Grandal recently after a 72 win season. It’s bigger than any free agent contract ever awarded by the Twins, and would be among the richest contracts in Twins’ franchises history. If we’re still saying that come training camp...just shut the whole thing down.

There is a prevailing sentiment, as we’re seeing, that Sano at 3B is some sort of problem. Sano at 3B, in my estimation, is pretty far down the list of issues on this squad. Clearly, pitching is where resources need to be invested. Both in the rotation and bullpen. If we’re going to criticize defense, why aren’t more people talking about Polanco at short, and moving him? How about Jake Cabe flailing around in the OF as the 4th guy? What about Cron dropping routine balls that get to him in the air in playoff games? I get Sano isn’t the greatest 3B, but acting like moving him off of 3B is going to solve problems and propel this team to the next level is asinine. IMO, it comes down to a number of people having a some sort of negative bias related to Sano (going back to off-field things, stupid striv articles about his weight, etc). If you can upgrade him at 3B and move him to 1B, fine. But bringing in some marginal player like Brock Holt just to move Sano off of 3B is such a bad take that it’s borderline offensive.

I get the sentiment that the rule isn’t ideal. But, what other solutions are there? You can’t have these 4 hour long games in Boston and New York anymore. It’s absurd. Nobody short of a retired empty nester or someone doing it for a living has time to watch a 3-4 hour baseball game on TV on any given Monday night, let alone spend a hundred plus to show up at the game in person. To put it frankly, the vast majority of the people into that kind of baseball are dying off. If they don’t fix it now, the sport will be in trouble. They know it. Same reason why they “fixed” the ball. Like it or not, young prospective fans, even a significant proportion of current fans, just aren’t excited by small ball and 1-0 pitchers duels. I don’t like it, but I understand it.

If he’s just a bench bat against LHP, with some occasional run at first base, sure. But, I think we can/should do better than Cron as a primary option (it’s the will that worries me). Watching him drop balls against the Yankees in the playoffs is forever etched in my mind. If I remember right, one would’ve gotten us out of inning and multiple runs were scored after. Not blaming the series loss on Cron, but he had some huge miscues that certainly contributed. Not to mention his thumb caused him to be a black hole in the lineup.

For me, the way I was raised, it’s just strange to me that people wouldn’t want to hire the most qualified candidates. Gender, race, religion, whatever, should be thrown out the window. I’m a business owner, and can tell you that if I get an accountant coming to me out of college, I’m taking the most talented. Honestly, I don’t know anyone personally in my line of work that would do it differently. All that said, I think it’s antithetical to that call for more of X or Y in anything. If we’re working to get rid of prejudice/bias....that’s just another form. I’d love for these things to happen organically. The best person should get the job. If that’s 100% women, men, people of a certain color, so be it. We don’t need proportionate ratios across the board. In order for us as a society to clear these hurdles related to prejudice, people that like to think they aren’t prejudiced also need to stop analyzing things in terms of the number of women, minorities, white men, etc in any given arena. Creating inefficiencies for the sake of filling quotas (IMO, perpetuating prejudice), doesn’t help anyone. Especially in today’s society with gender fluidity and identity politics, if it doesn’t work as one, what’s to stop someone from trying it as another. Look, I get there are good intentions behind a lot these things. I’m by no means chastising anyone. Everyone deserves a fair shake regardless. That’s the important thing. That’s where we need to be as a society.

Yes they should add to the bullpen. They have some nice pieces, and they looked good as a unit at times. But, they blew way too many winnable game.(Yankees at home, Brewers game, and a few others come to mind right off the top of the head). I know bullpens are shoddy around the league, but one or two more services me pieces and the Twins could’ve easily had home field advantage in the playoffs and things look much differently as they sit today. It happens every year back to old regime. They are hamstrung I’m spending and are forced to throw things at the wall and hope they stick (Blake Parker, really?). Games are flushed down the toilet “seeing what we got.” It was a two game difference between the Yankees and the Twins for home field.

Give me back Escobar and Presley and you can keep all of those prospects. Eduardo Escobar posted a 4.2 WAR in 2019. For reference, that tied Tatis Jr (who was phenomenal in him games played). Juan Soto posted a 4.7. Freddie Freeman and JT Realmuto 4.4s. Nelson Cruz a 4.3. He posted a higher WAR than Max Kepler and Mitch Garver. Higher than Jose Altuve, Austin Meadows, and JD Martinez. Crude measurement, I know, but that’s what I’m using for the sake of time. We all know about Pressley. He’s been, arguably, the best reliever in the MLB since he arrived in Houston until his injury issues late in the season. These guys are among the best in Major League Baseball at their positions (both positions we need). I don’t know how, with a straight face, you can list the likes of Devon Smeltzer, Luke Raley, a couple of hard throwers who will be a fraction of Presley if we’re lucky, and Celestino, who was awful save for a few months and is years away from the majors on a team with a loaded outfield, and say “See, these guys are killing it.” There are some things people seem to forget. This front office had a pretty good offseason last year....the year before that was an epic disaster. Also, many of the significant contributors on the team were holdovers from the previous regime. They brought in Cruz who was a resounding success....but he fell into their lap (nobody really wanted him that badly due to his age). Aside from that they’ve brought in guys like Morrison, Lynn, Zach Duke, CJ Cron, Jonathan Schoop, etc. Hardly a murderer’s row. Don’t get me wrong, I have faith in them. But way too many people in the media and fandom are anointing Falvine the Kings of Baseball. In reality l, that isn’t really based on a whole lot. They won the worst division in baseball and got utterly dismantled by the team that lost to the team that lost to the Nationals in the World Series. I still need to see some things play out. I don’t think they’ll be giving a long runway in terms of spending (not as much as people think), and a lot of players are due for regression. There is a good chance everyone will be writing articles expressing the opposite sentiment this time next year.

Has a prospect ever generated so many questions regarding ability to play a position from the start of their career, only to go on and be great st that position defensively? I’m still concerned about how his bat will play with that giant leg kick.

I don’t agree with the premise that it would be detrimental to the Twins to go after big free agents. Always thought it was/is ludicrous. It’s only detrimental because that’s the system ownership has in place. It’s a self fulfilling prophecy. You don’t sign free agents because you don’t have the revenue, your team stinks because you didn’t sign any good players to supplement your roster, people don’t show up to games because the team stinks....and it’s an endless cycle of ineptitude. The mold has to be broken at some point, and you have to take a risk, if you want to snap out of it. There is no reason why this team can’t compete with the likes of the Houston Astros when it comes to payroll/free agents. The odds of building a roster from the ground up that’s is good enough on its own is nil. Everyone points to the Rays and As as an example, but what have they ever won? Kansas City and Houston don’t fit that paradigm, because they brought in front-line guys via trade (Cueto and Verlander). That said, I don’t think that mold will be broken, and we’ll need to consider secondary pitching options. I would go after Quintana and Wood, bring back Pineda, Odorizzi, and Gibson, and roll out: Berrios, Odorizzi, Quintana, Wood, Pineda. Gibson would be a swing man to limit innings (especially in regards to Berrios and Pineda). Not spectacular, but gives a solid 1-5. Pretty realistic given the Twins history. Hopefully the bullpen takes another step and the offense keeps humming. Relying on guys like Graterol, Thorpe, etc would be a huge mistake. If they shoe they are there a month or two in, you have a great problem. Better than handing them the keys and having them flop. Dobnak and Smeltzer aren’t legitimate options, IMO. They can get you by in a spot start, but I don’t think things would look pretty over 180 innings. At the end of the day, I still think we missed an opportunity that isn’t going to come around again. I think the offense will regress. I don’t think the rotation I listed above would be enough to get over hump. I need to be clear, because I will be called a troll for saying things people disagree with. This is my honest outlook on the team, and it’s a tough pill to swallow with the playoffs still burning. But, IMO, it’s reality. Not looking to offend anyone here. Don’t agree? Great. But, people acting like I’m spewing falsehoods, etc just for sake of getting people angry (aka trolling) is absurd.

I think a lot of people have a bias against Sano. Since he has gotten himself in shape and transformed himself to one of the premier right handed power hitters in the game, there is really only one place left to focus that distaste: his defense. Is his defense stellar? No. Is really as bad as some would like you to believe? No. How many 3B would’ve made those plays? Are we going to chastise a guy for not being an Arenado level defender at the hot corner? Where are articles demanding Polanco to be mixed from shortstop? If I wasn’t a Polanco fan (he has his own skeletons with the PED issue) I could point to him being second to Tim Anderson for the MLB lead in errors (while Anderson recorded more opportunities, more out outs, was in on more double plays, etc.). That’s certainly not ideal. Why is Cron considered a good defender around here? His drop on the double play was massive, and infinitely more routine than a sprawling backhanded play on a smash down the 3B line. The list goes on. I understand that Sano isn’t the best defender in the league at 3B. But, he’s certainly not the worst. He’s very adept at coming in on balls, and his arm allows him to play in such a position that he may get to some balls other 3Bs can’t (can play deeper). There is value in having that bat at 3B. Until recently (with Devers, Chapman, etc emerging), that position was a Barron wasteland offensively for half a decade. If you’re not plugging in someone who can hit at his level, you’re taking a lot of runs off the board next year. Especially when you consider the decline that will already be built in due to regression and the ball (we saw how that killed the Twins in the playoffs, who need multiple home runs to win a game). I get this is the time for speculation. But, this topic has been beaten and beaten and beaten. There is a reason why the Twins braintrust, widely considered among the sharpest in the MLB (thus the world), decided the team is better off at 3B. This team didn’t lose the playoff series because Sano was unable to make one of the most epic plays we would’ve seen in this entire postseason (but some want you to think it’s routine). The primary reason this team lost, if we need to get into that, was Baldelli’s awful management. The thing was over once he decided to punt game 1 and bring AAA relievers into Yankee stadium. Second was the front-offices inability to solidify the pitching staff (I said all year it was going to rear it’s head eventually). Third was the offense dropping the bats and placing both hands firmly around their own necks. Fourth were the numerous defensive miscues on plus that were realistic to be made (Cave, Arraez, Cron). Fourth was whatever was wrong with Max Kepler. The point that kind of burns me about the constant scapegoating with Sano was brought up in the article. He’s not responsible for his defensive alignment. And off all people to shift on, is Brett Gardner really included? Sure, maybe the short term numbers say that, but he’s sprayed the ball all over the field for his entire career. I like Sano. You get a stud 3B that can hit? By all means move him to 1st. But, there are much bigger problems this team needs to address, and it’s not even close.

Another point that always drives me crazy about these conversations: People like to signal their enlightenment in the subject by talking about bad contracts and overpaying. But, in reality, there is really no such thing as “overpaying.” There is only paying. The players don’t say, “I’ll play for 15 per year,” for the team to say, “we’ll give you 20.” The price is set by the market and is what it is. Also, there is no salary cap involved. When fans say, “ah, I didn’t want Dallas Keuchel at the price anyway,” I’m generally confused. Are these fans of the Pohlads only, who’s World Series is the release of the annual financial? Why would anyone’s thought be, “whew, Carl Jr. was really close to only taking home 240 million this year instead of 260...that could’ve been a disaster,” when a big free agent signs elsewhere? That is the only implication there. It’s certsinly not taking away from another bevy of free agent signings. They don’t extend guys unless they’re dirt cheap (Mauer the one exception). We saw that play out this year with next to $0 on the books going forward. Man, it’s not even that time of year and here I am sitting in my office raising my blood pressure over the off-season.

Just my opinion, but I don’t think there is any chance the Twins go after a big name guy. It’s just not something they’ve ever done. I don’t care about regime change, I think it’s an ownership thing. So, I’m already crossing Cole, Strasburg, and Ryu off the list. Zero chance there. Hamels, Bumgarner, or Wheeler fit right into the Twins wheelhouse, IMO. They can probably be had on cheaper short-term deals and have the name recognition to satisfy the PR side (plenty of fans will be excited about Hamels/MadBum). Just enough for them to point and say, “see, it’s the biggest free agent pitcher deal of all time....please believe that we’re all in (even though we’re not) and please buy some season tickets (before you realize that we’re not).” Don’t get me wrong, they should absolutely be in on the biggest free agents out there. The payroll is almost nothing. The core is young and cheap. It’s one of those proverbial, “if they don’t do it now, they never will,” type of scenario. I’m leaning towards the “never will” coming to fruition and we’ll be left massively underwhelmed like we are every year.