That exercise has usually entailed finding a similarly terrible contract to swap. After a disappointing first season in San Diego, James Shields' name has been often floated out as a target of late. My immediate reaction to a potential Nolasco for Shields trade is it would be a dream swap for the Twins.
After looking into it further, and considering the long-term ramifications, I'm not even convinced I'd pull the trigger on a straight up swap if I was Terry Ryan.
Yes, Shields is the superior pitcher, but his contract carries far more risk going forward. The Twins still owe Nolasco $25 million ($12 million the next two seasons followed by a $1 million buyout), but Shields still has $65 million left on his deal ($21 million over the next three years and a $2 million buyout for the fourth).
That $40 extra million surely could be better spent elsewhere, and while getting rid of Nolasco is an enticing idea, taking on Shields may be a subtraction by addition.
Beyond the financial commitment, there are huge question marks surrounding Shields and some reason for optimism for Nolasco. Shields had a 3.91 ERA, gave up a league-high 33 homers and actually had a higher FIP (4.45) in 2015 than the mark Nolasco has posted over his two seasons in Minnesota (4.15). He also had a worse strikeout-to-walk ratio over the same time frames (2.67 to Nolasco's 2.88).
Nolasco has been a disaster so far in his time with the Twins, but he may have been a victim of some bad luck as well. His BABIPs the past two seasons have been .392 and .351. He is always going to give up a higher than average amount of hard contact, but I would expect his BABIP to fall more toward his career mark of .314. Shields, in case you were wondering, had a .299 BABIP last season.
With all that said, I would certainly still expect Shields to be the superior pitcher in 2016. He also has a reputation of being a positive influence on a pitching staff and has been an absolute horse, pitching more than 200 innings nine-straight seasons. My worry is in '15 we started seeing the beginning of the end and all that work has started to pile up on his arm.
If nothing else, Nolasco should be at least have a fresh arm after throwing just 37 1/3 innings last season. And if we're going to address intangibles and credit Shields for his leadership, Nolasco should also get a tip of the cap for working his way back from an ankle injury to start the final game of the season when he had very little incentive to push to return prior to the season's end.
Also, if I'm the Twins I'm trying to move Nolasco for anything but another starting pitcher. There's no question Tyler Duffey deserves to start the '16 season in the rotation, I would also prefer to see Trevor May starting again and Jose Berrios has very little (if anything ) to prove in the minors.
What do you think? Am I crazy? Would you trade Nolasco for Shields straight up?
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