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Tom Froemming

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Blog Entries posted by Tom Froemming

  1. Tom Froemming
    The Minnesota Twins have some big decisions facing them as we prepare to enter the 2020-21 MLB offseason. I ran through a few topics in a series of videos over on my YouTube channel.
     
    Keeping Eddie Rosario | MN Twins Offseason Primer Ep. 1

     
    What To Do About Donaldson, Buxton? | MN Twins Offseason Primer Ep. 2

     
    Finding Time For Kirilloff, Lewis And Others | MN Twins Offseason Primer Ep. 3

     
    Have We Seen The Last Of Odorizzi And May? | MN Twins Offseason Primer Ep. 4

     
    Free Agent Targets: Trevor Bauer And George Springer? Why Not? | MN Twins Offseason Primer Ep. 5

     
    If you're interested in more Twins coverage over on YouTube, click this link to subscribe to my channel. While you're at it, check out Twins Daily's channel.
  3. Tom Froemming
    Fellow Twins Daily contributor Cooper Carlson and I discussed a decision facing the Twins this offseason that I feel has flown a bit under the radar. Among the topics we covered were whether retaining Jason Castro is a priority, Willians Astudillo as the backup and which free agent catchers caught our interest.
     

  4. Tom Froemming
    Fellow Twins Daily contributor Jamie Cameron and I discussed the immediate decisions facing the Twins regarding their current in-house pitchers. We recorded live on Twitter, but here's a cleaned up version of our discussion that cuts out a few (expected) technical issues we ran into:
     

     
    I love to jump headfirst into things, so I'm not sure where this is going to go or how it works into Twins Daily just yet, but I plan on recording similar discussions with other Twins Daily contributors in the future. A big thanks to Jamie for volunteering to join me on the first one of these adventures.
     
    If you have any feedback on the broadcast, I'd love to hear it. This is the first time I've tried anything like this, but again, it definitely won't be the last.
  5. Tom Froemming
    The 2019 Minnesota Twins season was highlighted by the most prolific home run hitting lineup of all time, but in this video I took a look back at the best starts the team got from its rotation. Here are the top 10 performances as ranked by Game Score Version 2.
     

     
    Here's some background information on Game Score Version 2.0, if you're interested. Below is the list, see the video above for more information, analysis and highlights.
     
    10. Jose Berrios at TOR 5/7 81 Game Score 2.0
    9. Jake Odorizzi vs. HOU 4/29 81 Game Score 2.0
    8. Jose Berrios vs. WAS 9/10 82 Game Score 2.0
    7. Martin Perez at TOR 5/6 85 Game Score 2.0
    6. Martin Perez vs. HOU 5/1 85 Game Score 2.0
    5. Jake Odorizzi vs. DET 5/10 87 Game Score 2.0
    4. Jose Berrios vs. BOS 6/17 87 Game Score 2.0
    3. Jose Berrios at MIA 7/31 91 Game Score 2.0
    2. Kyle Gibson vs. KCR 6/14 92 Game Score 2.0
    1. Jose Berrios vs. CLE 3/28 92 Game Score 2.0
     
    As explained in the video, I wanted to use an unbiased evaluation for this list, a concrete number, but I broke any ties. It didn't get any better than Opening Day, according to this methodology, but I have some of my own opinions (as I'm sure you do as well, feel free to leave a comment).
     
    I think Berrios' start against Boston was the best of the season, which is a bit ironic because it was the only outing on this list in which the pitcher was credited with an earned run. The Twins also lost that game 2-0. Jose struck out 10 batters, did not issue a walk, threw 76.1% of his pitches for strikes, got 21 swinging strikes in that outing and was also 20/28 on first-pitch strikes. Pretty incredible.
     
    I was a bit surprised Michael Pineda didn't crack the list, though he was more consistent from start-to-start than brilliant in any given outing. His highest Game Score 2.0 on the season was 73, but he had 12 starts of 60+. Gibson, in comparison, only cracked a 60 Game Score 2.0 eight times.
     
    If I were to make my own list, Devin Smeltzer's MLB debut (6 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 7 K vs. MIL) would definitely make the cut. With a Game Score 2.0 of 79, however, he just missed this list. Another outing I'd boost considering the context is Jake Odorizzi's start at Yankee Stadium in early May (6 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 4 BB, 8 K), though that was only good enough for a Game Score 2.0 of 74. Hopefully Odo can repeat that performance in the ALDS ...
  6. Tom Froemming
    Even a really great meal goes stale eventually.
     
    I desperately wanted the Twins to do more to upgrade the bullpen this offseason, and was supportive of the idea of them pursuing Craig Kimbrel at one point, but I'm out now. I don't really want anything to do with him.
     
    My frustration with the bullpen inactivity was never tied to any one particular reliever. Things have boiled own to that, since Kimbrel is the last man standing, but there were several attractive free agent bullpen pieces out there this winter. The Twins didn't sign any of them. I'm over it.
     
    I'm not saying this bullpen is fine as it's currently constructed. While Ryne Harper has been a pleasant surprise and the backed trio of Blake Parker, Taylor Rogers and Trevor May has mostly looked good, there are some legit concerns about the depth.
     
    But bringing in a project isn't the answer. Kimbrel is one of the greatest closers of all time. There's also a reason why he's still unemployed. Here are a few:
     
    -He has to be rusty. This is item No. 1 with a bullet. There's no way he can possibly be sharp, I don't care what kind of simulated games he may be throwing.
     
    -He had a 4.57 ERA in the second half and a 5.91 ERA in the postseason last year.
     
    -His fastball velocity dropped from 98.72 mph in 2017 to 97.63 mph last year.
     
    -It actually took him awhile to work up to that velocity last season, sitting below 97 mph through April. Yes, he's been working out, but I'd still be concerned it would take him some time to get up to full speed.
     
    -His ground ball rate dropped from 37.0% to 28.2% last year.
     
    -His line drive rate went up from 19.4% to 24.8% last year.
     
    -He had a worse first-pitch strike rate (56.3%) than Fernando Rodney last year.
     
    -He had the eighth-lowest rate of pitches in the zone (36.6%) of the 151 qualified relievers last year.
     
    -He walked 12.6% of the batters he faced last year. That is horrible. It was the 20th-worst rate among 336 pitchers who logged more than 50 innings last year.
     
    In nearly every single positive mention of the Twins I see, there is somebody in the comments who calls for Kimbrel. I get it, I just think the idea of Kimbrel doesn't even accurately reflect who he actually is at this point.
     
    If the Twins seek to improve the bullpen, they should be looking for guys who are trending upward. Or at least, you know, active. Maybe Kimbrel will be great, I don't know, but I am comfortable with another team taking on that project. There are other ways to boost the bullpen.
  7. Tom Froemming
    *I’m primarily posting this to my blog in order to use it as part of a tutorial video I’m putting together, but I hope there are also a few things in here you find interesting.
     
    It would have been difficult to expect Logan Morrison to replicate the excellent numbers he posted last season, that was by far his best year after all, but LoMo has fallen so far behind even his career averages you have to wonder if he’s ever going to turn it around.
     
    He’s actually made solid contact, and is putting the ball in play more often than in 2017, but the drop in results is shocking. Here’s a quick glance at his career numbers via Baseball-Reference:


    I recently dove a little deeper into the numbers for a video I recorded for YouTube.

    Something I didn’t touch on was the fact that opposing pitchers seem to have figured out how to attack Morrison. Dave Newman of the New Richmond News in Wisconsin shared this on Twitter:
    https://twitter.com/dmnewman/status/1010644735512449024
    Attached below are two heat maps via Baseball Savant, the first shows his average exit velocity. Notice the low numbers on inside pitches up in the zone …


    … and the second shows his slugging percentage. As you can see, even though he’s had better exit velocity on balls down and away, it’s not translating into much.


    So what needs to happen for Morrison to turn things around? An adjustment. He somehow needs to alter his approach without completely turning his back on what made him one of the best power hitters in baseball last season.
     
    Easier said than done.
  8. Tom Froemming
    Did you know that marine scientists are making an effort to replace the name starfish with sea star? Neither did I, but these are the kinds of things you learn when you have a toddler (who decided it’s so important to know all the animals and what sounds they make?) Anyway, maybe it’s also time for us baseballogists to review the game’s nomenclature.
     
    The purpose behind renaming the starfish is due to the fact that it’s not, in fact, a fish at all. Per National Geographic, sea stars are more closely related to sea urchins and sand dollars. Makes sense, right? It seems to me like we could apply that same logic to the following terms:
     
    Baseball: Let’s just start right at the top. Calling the game baseball makes sense, but calling the actual ball itself a baseball? That’s ludacris if you really think about it. If anything, it should be called a seam ball. Or, the way things are going lately, maybe a space ball.
     
    Foul line/foul pole: If you hit one of these two things, it’s a fair ball. So why not just call them the fair line and fair pole?
     
    No hitter: This one works, but I always felt like maybe it’s too on the nose. You don’t call a shutout a no runner or a no scoresy. No-no is pretty solid, but how about we start calling them blankers? This has a double meaning: 1) The pitcher has put up nothing but blanks on the scoreboard, and 2) The opposing hitters probably spent the entire game saying “mother (blank)-er” to themselves.
     
    Instant replay: Replay.
     
    Batting average: Hit percentage. “Batting average” isn’t nearly as descriptive as its brethren in the triple slash line (on-base percentage and slugging percentage).
     
    Lineup card: Beat writer photo bait.
     
    Extra innings: This will remain the term for major league baseball, but in the minor leagues this will now be referred to as the “Intentional Walk and Bunt Showcase.”
     
    Hall of Fame: National Museum of Baseball. In very fine print under that would be listed “also includes the Hall of Baseball Writers’ Popularity Club.”
     
    Sacrifice Bunt: Sacrifice out.
     
    Productive out: Advancing out. The productivity part of it is highly subjective.
     
    Scoring position: This term is still considered current, but Byron Buxton’s ability to score from first base has caused this to be transitioned into the “under review” stage.
     
    Small ball: This term is also currently under review. If the baseballs continue to be juiced, this will be updated to “bad-idea ball.”
     
    Umpire: This is still current, but in a transitional stage. Preparations are being made to change this to either Mr. Roboto, Johnny 5 or RoboCop.
     
    That’s all I could come up with for now, but it is your duty as a fellow baseballogist to contribute to this project. Please offer up your own update suggestions in the comments.
     
    Have something more to say? Perfect! Start your own blog here at Twins Daily.
  9. Tom Froemming
    One of the great things about being a baseball fan is you can always find plenty to be positive about if you’re willing to look hard enough. While 2016 has been a bleak year for the Twins, having 100-plus players in the organization means there are 100-plus opportunities to find some bright spots.
     
    It’s no secret that the biggest issue for the Twins has been their pitching. While some of the prospects like Jose Berrios and J.T. Chargois have struggled in their brief time in the major leagues, there are plenty of other pitchers in the system trending in the right direction.
     
    If you’re looking for the brightest stars shining in the system, Stephen Gonsalves (1.97 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 9.9 K/9) and Fernando Romero (1.89 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 9.0 K/9) are having as good of seasons as anyone in the entire minor leagues. But there has been and will be plenty of coverage about those two as they rocket their way up the Twins prospect rankings.
     
    Digging a bit deeper, you can find a few less heralded pitchers who have really put things together over the past couple months. Unlike Gonsalves and Romero, these guys aren’t going to be in the running for pitcher of the year awards or sit atop any prospect lists, but what they’re doing shouldn’t be ignored. Here is a list of one pitcher from each of the Twins’ top four affiliates who has turned things up as the minor league season is winding down.
     
    Rochester: D.J. Baxendale
     
    Baxendale began the season in the Chattanooga Lookouts’ rotation and pitched well enough to be named a midseason Southern League All-Star. He had a 3.44 ERA and displayed excellent control (1.8 BB/9), which has been his calling card throughout his professional career.
     
    That performance earned him a promotion, but it wasn’t to the Rochester rotation. Along with a new team, Baxendale shifted to a new role out in the bullpen. After averaging 6.6 K/9 as a starter in Double A, the Arkansas product is now averaging over a strikeout per inning out of the Rochester pen.
     
    Over 30 ⅓ innings with the Red Wings, Baxendale has a 1.19 ERA and 34 strikeouts. He’s pitched at least two innings in seven of his 22 appearances.
     
    A former 10th-round pick, the 25-year-old Baxendale has never been viewed as much of a prospect, but the way he’s pitched at the highest level of the minor leagues has to have captured the attention of the front office. With a new regime expected to take over, however, it’s anyone’s guess whether Baxendale will remain in relief or go back to starting next season.
     
    Chattanooga: Ryan Eades
     
    Eades’ totals for the year don’t look like much to get excited about, but since returning to the Lookouts’ rotation, he has been on a nice roll. The former second-round pick was bumped to the bullpen in early July and saw his ERA balloon to 5.13 in the middle of that month.
     
    He smoothed things out and managed to get back into the rotation on Aug. 14, partially due to performance but luck also played a big role. While he may not have technically earned his way back into the rotation, he’s certainly pitched like he intends to stay there since.
     
    Maybe being sent to the pen was a wakeup call, maybe he learned some things out there, maybe it’s as simple as he has a fresh arm ... whatever it is Eades has looked like a different pitcher. Over four starts, the LSU product has a 2.42 ERA, 1.12 WHIP and four times as many strikeouts (20) than walks (5). His 8.1 K/9 over that period is a nice increase over his career mark of 6.6.
     
    Eades hasn’t lived up to his impressive college resume or $1.3 million bonus up to this point, and this could just be him getting hot over a small sample, but I wonder if we are seeing his turning point.
     
    Fort Myers: Dereck Rodriguez
     
    Rodriguez started the year in Cedar Rapids and got off to a rough start. Coming off a season in which he was named the Appalachian League Pitcher of the Year, Rodriguez looked lost, pitching to a 7.71 ERA through June 2. From there he really turned things around. The Twins took notice and quickly bumped him up to Fort Myers.
     
    The 24-year-old has carried that momentum over, and through four starts in the Florida State League has a 2.36 ERA and 0.97 WHIP over 26 ⅔ innings. He isn’t posting as many strikeouts since the promotion (just 5.1 K/9), but he has issued just two walks. That’s not two walks as in per nine rate, that’s two walks as in total. While the FSL is a notorious pitcher’s haven, that kind of control is impressive no matter the setting.
     
    Since hitting that low point in early June, Rodriguez has pitched at least six innings in all 13 of his starts. That’s an especially impressive feat considering this is just his second season as a starting pitcher and third overall since being converted from the outfield.
     
    Cedar Rapids: Eduardo Del Rosario
     
    Much like Rodriguez, Del Rosario’s 2016 got off to a rotten start. His season started in June, but the lanky 21-year-old didn’t really get rolling until the start of July. Here’s a breakdown his numbers by month.
     
    June: 6.58 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, 5.2 K/9
    July: 2.83 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 9.4 K/9
    Aug.: 1.69 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 11.5 K/9
     
    Del Rosario has pitched out of his mind over his last eight starts in particular, tallying a total of 58 Ks against just 14 walks over that stretch of 44 ⅔ innings. He is far and away the most intriguing prospect on this list, but it’s important that Del Rosario keeps logging innings and developing his body before he really shoots his way up the rankings. Regardless, he has definitely established himself as a guy to keep an eye on.
     
    Aside from Berrios and Chargois, there has been plenty of frustration over the lack of progress from other highly-touted prospects like Tyler Jay, Kohl Stewart, Nick Burdi and the handful of other relievers the Twins took with high draft picks. But luckily in baseball hope springs eternal.
     
    All those guys will get another shot to breakout next year. But in the meantime, Gonsalves and Romero are reason enough to be excited and there are plenty of under the radar guys beyond the four listed above taking big steps forward right before our eyes.
  10. Tom Froemming
    It has already been an interesting year in terms of how the Twins have deployed their players defensively. From Miguel Sano moving all over the place, to Jorge Polanco going from no reps a shortstop in the minors to the everyday guy there on the big club, there have been some decisions that have been worthy of questioning.
     
    Well, the questioning seems to be never ending during a down season, and I'd like to pile on and add Mitch Garver's usage on to the list of head scratchers in the organization. If the Twins believe Garver can be a starting catcher, they sure have a funny way of showing it.
     
    While in Chatanooga, fellow 2013 draftee Stuart Turner held a slight advantage over Garver in terms of reps behind the plate. Since his promotion, Garver holds a slight playing time advantage over John Ryan Murphy, but it's only eight starts vs. seven. Overall, Garver has played 107 games this year but has caught in just 54 of those contests.
     
    This is nothing new. In 2014, on his way to being named Twins Daily Minor League Hitter of the Year, Garver caught 63 of his 120 games. Last year, the split was less extreme at 77 games caught and 127 total games. With just 12 games left in the Red Wings' season, when it's all said and done Garver will have caught right around 200 games over the past three seasons. Sounds like a decent amount until you compare him to other backstops.
     
    A few of the most recent catchers to establish themselves as big league regulars are Philadelphia's Cameron Rupp, Miami's J.T. Realmuto and Cincinnati's Tucker Barnhart. Over their final three full years in the minors, each of them totaled over 280 games caught. Even prized Yankee prospect Gary Sanchez, who has always been more highly regarded for his bat, eclipsed 90 games caught in three separate MiLB seasons.
     
    It seems these days you can't have a discussion about catching without also talking about concussions, especially in concern to the Twins. It's worth noting Garver has been placed on the DL twice for concussions, once in June of '14 and again this May. There is no such thing as a concussion that isn't a serious injury, but in both cases Garver was able to get back in the gear in a matter of weeks, so those injuries can't account for the lost reps behind the plate.
     
    Garver has kept his bat in the lineup by playing first base or DH, but his skills at the plate have never been questioned as much as his ability play behind it (but we'll get to more on that later). With that being the case, you'd think the team would go out of its way to have Garver catching as much as possible.
     
    Not buying the playing time being an issue? Okay, then let's go into the "Free Mitch Garver" portion of the discussion. Garver was called up to Rochester on Aug. 9, but what took so long? There's a valid argument to be made that Garver should already be on the big league club.
     
    I understand that Turner was drafted ahead of Garver and started his career a level ahead. It's also valid to point out that the team invested resources into Murphy, who is on the 40-man roster, and they want to give him every opportunity to play his way out of his season-long slump. But why has Garver remained so low on the catching totem pole when his performance has been stellar and he's actually older than both Murphy and Turner?
     
    At 25-years-old, I'm not sure if Garver can really even be called a prospect anymore. It's time to see what he can do, no matter what that means to Murphy, Turner, or even Kurt Suzuki or Juan Centeno.
     
    Garver had a down year in 2015, but followed it up with an impressive showing in the Arizona Fall League. He had posted an above average OPS for the Southern League each month this season, ending his time in Chattanooga with a .257/.334/.417 slash line. Combine that with an excellent start in Rochester (.364/.404/.455) and you have a guy who has trended up for around 12 months now, and the glove work is catching up with his offense.
     
    On Sunday's pregame radio broadcast, interim GM Rob Antony went out of his way to compliment the strides Garver has made with the mitt, and the numbers back it up. The University of New Mexico product has also thrown out an impressive 50% of base stealers this season and has received positive reviews on his pitch framing ability.
     
    So ... if the bat was never in question and the numbers show he's been a phenomenal defensive catcher this season, then what gives? I suppose it's entirely possible the front offices does not, in fact, view Garver as an everyday catcher. The way he's been used over his career certainly makes you wonder.
  11. Tom Froemming
    Heading into this season, it appeared Eduardo Escobar had cemented himself as the Twins' starting shortstop. He'd put together two-straight above average offensive seasons and ended his 2015 season with a big exclamation point. With a poor showing thus far in 2016, however, Escobar's place on the team is now very much in question.
     
    Escobar performed admirably in 2014, taking over for Pedro Florimon and fending off rookie Danny Santana for playing time. He hit .275/.315/.406 and ranked 10th in the AL with 35 doubles. Still, he seemed like more of a band aid at the position than an attractive long-term option.
     
    Santana re-entered the picture to start 2015, but once he faltered there was steady Eduardo to step in. At the time, it was disappointing to see the talented young Santana fail to take advantage of an opportunity and Escobar again just seemed to be a stop gap. The team was in contention and he was the best option.
     
    His performance over the last two months of the season changed that perception. Escobar hit .287 with eight homers, 27 RBI and 31 runs over his final 56 games played. Extrapolated over a 162 game period, that equates to 23 home runs, 78 RBI and 90 runs. He went from stop gap to the solution. Unfortunately, that performance appears to have been a mirage.
     
    A big element to Escobar's game that fueled his hot finish to 2015 was an improved approach at the plate. He has been unable to carry that over to 2016.
     

    2014: 5.2 BB%, .315 OBP
    First half 2015: 3.7 BB%, .285 OBP
    Second half 2015: 8.7 BB%, .330 OBP
    2016: 3.4 BB%, .283 OBP 
    That second half spike from last season appears to simply be a huge outlier at this point. Escobar has an ugly triple slash of .259/.283/.380 on the season and to top it off advanced defensive metrics suggest his glove work has declined, as well.
     
    The trade of Eduardo Nunez appeared to have opened the door back up for Escobar to take over at short, but instead Jorge Polanco has started six of the past nine games. The organization has always seemed hesitant to commit to Escobar, but now his performance has justified that stance.
     
    With an additional two seasons of team control which should come at modest prices, Escobar entered the year in a perfect position to slap a long-term stranglehold on the starting shortstop gig. No one could've seen the emergence of Nunez coming, but Escobar has also played himself out of the picture.
     
    With his ability to switch hit and play multiple positions, he's got an attractive skill set for a utility player, but with how far his performance has fallen off it's anyone's guess what the new front office regime will ultimately decide to do with Escobar.
     
    It's not too late to rule out another late season surge from Escobar, but at this point it certainly appears the franchises' instability at shortstop will continue. Over the past ten seasons the Twins have had nine different Opening Day shortstops.
  12. Tom Froemming
    The Twins have been very under the radar in their search for a new general manager, but could the team be in a position to announce a new hire before the end of the 2016 season? Recent remarks from Star Tribune reporter Phil Miller certainly make that sound like a real possibility.
     
    Miller joined host Michael Rand on the most recent episode of the Star Tribune's Twins Insider podcast, and had a couple of very interesting tidbits to share in regard to the team's search for a new gm. The topic comes up toward the end of the podcast, around the 41-minute-mark.
     
    Miller shares that inside the organization the "feeling has definitely set in that Rob (Antony) won't get the job" and added that the team has been very quietly doing their research and making progress. How soon could they be prepared to make a hire?
     
    "I would be surprised, actually, if it went beyond second week of September," Miller said.
     
    Miller even gave some insight into who one of the top candidates for the new GM may (or may not) be. He didn't name names, but Miller said while in Tampa he looked up one of the Rays' candidates for the job and was told by the teams PR department that individual wasn't interested in speaking with any media from Minnesota.
     
    Who may that mystery candidate be? This is complete speculation, but my guess would be the Rays Vice President of Baseball Operations Chaim Bloom. The Twins are working with the same search firm that led the Brewers GM search, in which Bloom as finalist. He was also considered for the Phillies GM opening this offseason.
     
    The Brewers actually interviewed Bloom last September, so we know the Rays aren't opposed to allowing members of their front office to interview for outside positions during the season. MLB Trade Rumors said this in regard to his fit in Milwaukee's search:
     
    "The 32-year-old Yale grad would seem to fit the team’s preference for a rising young executive that can bring a familiarity with analytics to their revamped front office."
     
    Bloom was promoted to his current position in October of 2014, but has been working for the Rays since 2005. Again, there is no concrete evidence that the Twins are tied to Bloom or even that the leading candidate is anyone the Rays organization, but it would certainly make a lot of sense.
  13. Tom Froemming
    In the wake of the Twins acquiring Hector Santiago from the Angels, some have questioned how big of an upgrade he'll be over Ricky Nolasco, mainly pointing to Nolasco's vastly superior numbers in terms of FIP (fielding independent pitching). While the peripheral stats may be in Nolasco's favor, they don't tell the whole story.
     
    The biggest divide between these two players is how they bear down when things start to not go in their favor. If you take a look into how each pitcher performs with runners on, it's clear that while Nolasco crumbles, Santiago shines
     
    Career FIP vs. ERA
    Santiago: 4.63 FIP, 3.68 ERA (0.95 worse)
    Nolasco: 3.85 FIP, 4.58 ERA (0.73 better)
     
    So you can see that both pitchers have been FIP busters, with Santiago looking a great deal worse than the ERA he has pitched to. These kinds of gaps are abnormal for veteran pitchers. Just for reference, Ervin Santana's FIP and ERA are only off by a difference of 0.11 over his career (4.24 FIP, 4.13 ERA).
     
    FIP is a great indicator of pitcher performance because it only looks at home runs, walks, hit batsmen and strikeouts. As the name would indicate, any plays in which defense is a factor are not taken into account. Another thing FIP doesn't take into account, however, is game situation. Obviously, it's better to not allow batters to reach safely, but Santiago has limited damage with runners on at an elite level. Even just skimming the surface it's easy to see this is where Santiago gains a considerable amount of value over Nolasco.
     
    Career with men on base
    Santiago: .216/.322/.336 (.658 OPS)
    Nolasco: .294/.345/.448 (.793)
     
    Career with RISP
    Santiago: .184/.300/.271 (.571)
    Nolasco: .287/.347/.437 (.784)
     
    Career with 2 outs and RISP
    Santiago: .173/.310/.248 (.558)
    Nolasco: .264/.355/.397 (.752)
     
    To put some perspective on just how excellent those numbers are for Santiago, Johan Santana was only slightly better over his career with men on base (.647 OPS) but not nearly as good with RISP (.623) or with RISP and two outs (.606).
     
    Santiago's greatest weakness is walks, and looking at his excellent July it's a wonder how he managed to put up such great results with how many free passes he issued. But, while he did walk 21 batters, in the following at bat opponents went just 1-for-18 with eight strikeouts and two walks (for those of you tallying things up at home, he was pulled for a reliever after one of those walks). That is a small sample, but it shows a slice of how effective Santiago can be at stepping up, wiggling out of jams and neutralizing the walks.
     
    There are people who don't believe in the concept of clutch, or even pitchers adjusting their approach based on game situation (pitching to the score for example). But after over 650 career innings, it seems like a stretch to look at Santiago's excellent track record in adverse situations and just say he's just been lucky. He clearly is unfazed by the pressure of pitching with men on base.
     
    Hector Santiago plays with fire but rarely gets burned. If he can continue to demonstrate this skill, he should also continue to outperform Ricky Nolasco with ease.
  14. Tom Froemming
    After getting off to the worst start in franchise history, the Twins appear to be turning things around this month, but is that something fans should be excited about? It seems like a crazy question, but when you look at the big picture could it be in the best interest of the team's future to tank the rest of the season?
     
    In the MLB there is nothing but incentives to tanking a season. The worse your record is the higher up you draft and the bigger your allotted bonus pool is to divvy out to those picks. Same deal with international spending, the worse you do the more money you can spend without incurring penalties.
     
    And it's not like these are small margins. The Phillies, who were the worst team in baseball last year, had over $4 million more to spend in the draft (per MLB.com) and over $1.5 million to spend on the international market (per Baseball America) than the Brewers, who were the 5th-worst team last season. The moral of the story is if you're going to be terrible it pays off to be the worst.
     
    With the 2016 season already sunk, is there any reason to root for the Twins to turn things around? Personally, I'm not so sure, and the team's performance over its last 15 games has me feeling conflicted.
     
    Beginning with their 17-5 rout of the Rangers on July 2, the Twins are 10-5 and have outscored their opponents 94-53. The pitching staff hasn't given up more than 6 runs in any game over that stretch, and the offense is clicking after a number of personnel changes. Max Kepler and Brian Dozier have been two of the best hitters in baseball over that stretch and the pitching staff has the fourth-lowest ERA (3.23) this month.
     
    In a lost season, you're put in an awkward position as a fan. Rooting against your own team seems like a rotten, unthinkable thing to do, but tanking may be the best thing for the future. But how does a team tank? You're never going to get the manager, coaches or any of the players behind the idea of giving away games. I suppose a massive, roster-crippling fire sale could do the trick.
     
    On the other hand, if the team keeps performing well it's certainly possible that a strong finish to 2016 could carry over. A positive finish to the season could make the long winter seem a little brighter and is only going to help the team attract free agents, if that's the route the new GM decides to take in improving the roster. Nobody is going to want to sign with the worst team in the league.
     
    Speaking of the new GM, could the way the Twins perform over the next two months also have an influence over what kind of candidates would be interested in the job? And if that's the case, which would be more attractive to the future GM: a young team on the upswing or the No. 1 pick in the draft? It's definitely something to keep in mind.
     
    What do you think? Would you rather see the Twins tank, or end on a high note?
  15. Tom Froemming
    There isn't a whole lot you can look back at and be positive about from the Twins 0-8 start this season, but here comes the sun (do do do do). There's a string of 70-degree temperatures coming up, and things can only go up from here for the Twins.
     
    Yes, it's lame to write about the weather, but you can't be a Minnesotan and not talk about the weather, especially when it's good. Just like you can't say here comes the sun and not add in the do do do do part.
     
    Anyway, the biggest bright spot for the Twins is there are 154 games left. Let that really sink in. I don't think even lifelong, hardcore baseball fans are good at truly wrapping their minds around how ridiculously long the season is. You wouldn't make a conclusion about a football team after the first 3 quarters of their opening game, right? That's roughly the equivalent of where the Twins are in their season.
     
    Things look bad, but I promise it's not time to hit the panic button yet. You'll surely hear all sorts of depressing stats about the history of teams who started 0-8. But you know what? The history of those teams has absolutely nothing to do with how the 2016 Minnesota Twins are going to play over their next 154 games.
     
    An 0-8 team has never done this, an 0-8 team has never done that ... who cares? While they didn't start 0-8, there are examples of teams that ended up with good seasons after getting off on the wrong foot. The 2011 Tampa Bay Rays started the year 1-8 and ended up making the playoffs with 91 wins. Last season, the Texas Rangers got off to a 7-15 start and were eventually the AL West champions.
     
    If you want to stick with Twins history, the 1991 team got off to a 2-9 start. Anybody remember how that team ended up? Of course you do, but I'm going to remind you anyway because in times like these we need to remember baseball can be fun.
     
    That team got things straightened out, but it took time. Even at the end of May their record was only 23-25. From there on, they went 72-42, taking the AL West and eventually becoming World Series Champions. It's true. The Twins were really good once upon a time. Like, the best in the World. Seems hard to believe right now, I know, but you can Google it if you don't want to take my word for it.
     
    Looking for something more recent? Well, I would argue that the 2015 Twins actually had a worse first eight games than this season's team. Sure, they at least won two games over that span, but the 2015 Twins were outscored 46-19. This year's club has a slightly more palatable 33-13 deficit in the runs scored column.
     
    And I know you remember what happened to that team. Those guys, who look a heck of a lot like this year's guys, won 83 games. No, there is no ring ceremony for finishing over .500, but it was a really fun season.
     
    Time is still on the Twins' side. I, like I'm sure many of you, was expecting to see the Twins win a Wild Card this season. After the slow start, what do they have to do to get there?
     
    Well, it took 86 wins to get into the postseason last year. So if you were expecting the Twins to hit that mark, through eight games you would have projected them to have, what, four maybe five wins. So basically all they have to do is win one extra game each month than you would have originally expected.
     
    Doesn't seem crazy when you break it down like that right?
     
    Of course all this is ignoring the myriad problems from the first eight games and assuming this has just been a series of games played by the bizarro Twins, and the real team we expected for 2016 will show up at any moment. But, when you're sitting at 0-8 it's a heck of a lot more fun to look forward in hope than it is to look back in disgust.
  16. Tom Froemming
    If you've been a fan of the Minnesota Twins for a while, you're probably sick of hearing about payroll. It's a topic that's beaten to death, and the criticisms are often contradictory.
     
    People will rip the ownership for not spending more out of one side of their mouth and ridicule them for overpaying Joe Mauer out the other. You can't have it both ways.
     
    In no way am I trying to suggest ownership or the front office shouldn't be questioned. I'm just saying those are tired and lazy arguments and it's time to point frustrations in a new direction.
     
    The most important positive step the organization could take would be to stop taking into account how much money it has invested in a player when making roster decisions. They need to stop being so cheap, and accept the fact when they've made a poor investment.
     
    As much as I would have loved to see the Twins sign an ace or dump a bunch of money into the bullpen, the team's decision not to is entirely defensible. Big, long-term contracts almost never work out and relievers are pretty unreliable from one year to the next.
     
    It wasn't long ago all these multi-year contracts to relievers would have been met with pretty much universal disdain. But, of course, the Royals have changed all that. It's a copycat league.
     
    What is indefensible is to refuse to give up on guys like Mauer or Ricky Nolasco in an attempt to save face despite having numerous better options.
     
    As a big Mauer apologist, I'll always hold out hope that he'll get back to being an on-base machine. Maybe the farther Mauer gets from his concussion the more likely it gets he'll regain his hand-eye skills. And I don't think we've ever seen Nolasco healthy in a Twins uniform. There's some reason to hold out hope for him, too.
     
    But if it starts to look like more of the same from either Mauer or Nolasco the club must move them into lower profile roles. The goal has to be winning games, not protecting egos.
     
    The Twins don't necessary need to spend a bunch of money to build a playoff team. All they need to do is put the best 25 guys on the roster and set roles based on skills and performance rather than service time and contract status.
  17. Tom Froemming
    In a fan forum Wednesday evening, Minnesota Twins manager Paul Molitor indicated he would probably prefer to keep Trevor May in the bullpen. The plan for spring training, however, is for May to prepare for the 2016 as a starting pitcher. If given an opportunity, I have the utmost confidence May will force the team's hand and pitch his way into the rotation.
     
    After the season ended, the Pioneer Press' Mike Berardino wrote a piece that had a couple telling quotes. May expressed his desire to return to the rotation and Terry Ryan expressed belief that May can be a legit 200-inning starter. So ... what's the problem?
     
    Management is letting the murky bullpen situation cloud its judgment of how best to use May in 2016, but if they leave the door open for May to crack the rotation, as they've indicated, it's gonna happen.
     
    Here's a quote from May in the Berardino piece:
     
    "There's no doubt in my mind I can be a go-to guy on this team -- on any team -- as a starter. I don't think I've achieved anywhere close to what I can achieve as a starter. I'm excited to come in next year and kind of open some eyes."
     
    This is a confident guy who thinks he has figured everything out. He wants the ball to start the game, and I'm sure he's putting in extra work this winter to be prepared to do everything he can to make that happen. There's no reason to doubt his ability to put in the necessary work and make adjustments at this point.
     
    Back in 2013, Eric Longenhagen of Crashburn Alley, who had been closely following May as a Phillies prospect, took another look at the former fourth-round pick. He noted May's stronger legs and noticed a productive switch from a 3/4 arm slot to throwing more over the top. Overall, Longenhagen felt May had made strides in his first year with the Twins system.
     
    The biggest knock on May throughout his minor league career was that he walked too many guys. Over 775 innings on the farm, he had averaged 4.4 BB/9. May impressed enough during the 2014 season to earn a promotion to the Twins, but again he struggled with free passes.
     
    In February, R.J. White of CBS Sports reported that May had taken up yoga. The especially interesting part was his reason why.
     
    "Every scouting report I’ve ever seen on myself says, 'Has trouble repeating his delivery.' Well, yoga is literally repeating moves, keeping your body under your control. I do the warrior pose, which is [the same as] striding and throwing a baseball. It has to help."
     
    In 2014, May walked 22 batters in just 45 2/3 innings with the Twins. Last season? He issued just 26 free passes over 114 2/3 innings. I'd say the yoga helped.
     
    So, over the past couple years May has managed to clean up his mechanics and solve his biggest question mark as a starter. He has been willing to make adjustments and knows himself as a pitcher. He's aware of his weaknesses, but is confident he can be a difference maker.
     
    Add it all up and I'm not betting against Trevor May pitching his way back into the rotation.
     
    Sure, when you take a look at all the options the Twins have, it can be difficult to see it happening. The club has five veteran starters already, all of whom are expecting to be in the rotation. On top of that, there's Tyler Duffey and Jose Berrios. But a lot can happen between now and Opening Day.
     
    Someone may get moved. It's even possible someone looks so bad this spring they pitch themselves out of a job. Unfortunately, somebody could get hurt. All three of those things could happen.
     
    But even if everyone makes it out of camp in the system and healthy, I believe May is going to make it very difficult for the club to send him back to the bullpen. One thing I keep thinking about is who I'd most like to see start a Wild Card game if the Twins can make it in.
     
    Is it crazy to say May? ... Probably. But, I'm not the only one with a baseball man crush on the guy. John Sickels of Minor League Ball predicted May would be an All-Star starter for the Twins in 2016.
     
    It's possible the person who will make the case for May in the rotation is actually Casey Fien. If he's looking good (I'm not certain he was ever really healthy in 2015), maybe the team feels more comfortable going without May's services in the pen. Or maybe Alex Meyer shows something in spring (is it possible we can pass along May's yoga instructor's number?). Or it's still possible the club makes an impact free agent addition.
     
    Plus, Glen Perkins and Kevin Jepsen are still at the back end of the bullpen. It's not like May was ever going to be the closer or anything. How hard can it be to find another viable seventh inning option?
     
    I understand the team is nervous to take May out of a role in which he's been successful. The bullpen can use all the help it can get, but if you looked around at some of the starting pitching matchups this October, you realized the Twins' rotation is also severely lacking in high-end talent.
     
    In the end, we're talking about at potential difference of 200 innings vs. 60 innings from one of the clubs most talented hurlers. It's an easy call to make.
  18. Tom Froemming
    With the Minnesota Twins inactive at the Winter Meetings, many fans and experts are wondering what the team's plan is in regards to its bullpen. The club is said to be focused on getting a lefty, but with so many of the current in-house options being unproven at the major league level, they could use any help they can get.
     
    While some are feeling disenfranchised by the team's lack of action, it may not take a blockbuster move to vastly improve the bullpen for 2016. Just take a look at what Ryan Madson did for the World Series champion Kansas City Royals last year.
     
    After spending several years as a top setup man, Madson finally got the chance to close for the Phillies in 2011. At what looked to be the highpoint of his career, Madson’s elbow blew out and missed three full seasons. The Royals signed Madson on Jan. 4 of last year, and ended up only paying him around $1 million. At the time of the signing, not many experts expected him to crack Kansas City’s deep, talented bullpen.
     
    Shockingly, Madson broke camp with the Royals and looked like the guy we saw closing out games for Philadelphia. There wasn’t a drop in velocity or performance, as Madson had a 2.13 ERA and 0.96 WHIP over 68 appearances.
     
    Last week, the 35-year-old landed a three-year, $22 million contract from Oakland, of all places. While Madson’s case is unique, given the extended absence, we’ve seen this act before with rags to riches relievers. Could the Twins manage to find a diamond in the rough in this year’s free agent crop?
     
    While attractive options such as Tyler Clippard and Antonio Bastardo are still there for the taking, the free agent market has dramatically thinned over the past week. While we can’t be sure of the front office’s lack of movement in addressing the bullpen, some Twins experts have suggested there may have been some sticker shock at the prices.
     
    Other teams haven’t had a problem opening their pocketbooks, but it’s completely reasonable for the Twins to be weary of relievers, since they have long been the most volatile group of players. How many guys have we seen go from top closers or setup men one year to DFAed the next?
     
    While there are certainly reasons not to shell out big bucks on the bullpen, it’s still an area the club needs to address this winter. Here are some free agents still available, who if healthy could be great low risk high reward candidates.
     
    Former Closers Down On Their Luck
     
    Neftali Feliz, 27, RHP
    Feliz’s stock isn’t nearly as low as Madson’s was a year ago, but I wouldn’t be at all shocked if he turns in a great performance on a one-year deal in 2016 and lands himself a lucrative three-year pact next offseason. He had an ugly 6.38 ERA over 48 innings between Texas and Detroit last year, but saw his velocity jump back closer to where it was when he was closing for the Rangers (94.6 mph).
     
    Joe Nathan, 41, RHP
    Everybody loves a reunion, right? He’s going to have to prove he’s healthy after undergoing Tommy John (again), but it shouldn’t take much of a commitment to sign the Twins’ all-time saves leader. Nathan’s motivation to keep pitching seems to be to end his career on his terms. He’s likely going to be more inclined to go somewhere he’s comfortable and has an opportunity to contribute. What better place than Minnesota?
     
    Long Shot Lefties
     
    Sean Marshall, 33 LHP
    Marshall’s recent history makes him a great comp to Madson at this time last year because he’s thrown just 24 ⅓ innings in the majors over the past three seasons (0 in 2015). But, he did get close enough from returning from shoulder surgery the Reds considered activating him from the DL in late September. From 2010-2012, Marshall had a 2.47 ERA and 10.35 K/9 while averaging over 70 innings a season. The Twins have an obvious need for a lefty.
     
    Eric O’Flaherty, 30 LHP
    O’Flaherty posted a 1.99 ERA over five seasons with the Braves.. At the end of that run in Atlanta, his elbow broke down, causing him to miss most of the 2013 & ‘14 seasons after undergoing Tommy John surgery. While he was effective in his initial return two years ago, but something went wrong last season, as he pitched to a brutal 8.10 ERA over 30 innings between Oakland and the Mets. Translation: He’ll be cheap. He turns 31 in February, so it’s possible he has another good run left in his arm.
     
    More Broken Relievers!
     
    Bobby Parnell, 31, RHP
    Parnell was expected to be the closer for the Mets in 2014, but never looked right in spring training and was shut down after just one appearance. He had Tommy John (sensing a trend?) and while he returned to the Mets’ bullpen, he didn’t look the same. He had a 6.38 ERA over 24 innings, but on the plus side he’s now healthy and approaching two full years from undergoing surgery. In the 2010, 2012 & 2013 seasons, Parnell had an ERA under 2.85, averaged at least 7.9 K/9 and his highest walk rate was 2.6 BB/9. 2011 was a down year, but that looks like an outlier when you look at his track record when he was healthy.
     
    Craig Stammen, 31 RHP
    Stammen is another former top setup man who has fallen from favor over the past two seasons. A late bloomer, he broke out with the Nationals as a 28-year-old in 2012, posting a 2.34 ERA and 8.9 K/9 over 88 ⅓ innings. He followed that up with another excellent season in which he had a 2.76 ERA with 8.7 K/9 over 81 ⅔ innings. All that work seems to have piled up, however, as Stammen was underwhelming in 2014 before falling apart and only throwing four innings with Washington last season. He’s apparently healthy after recovering from a torn flexor tendon. The Nats were expecting him to be ready for spring training, but they decided to non-tender him this winter.
     
    Finding the Next Wade Davis
     
    Brandon Morrow, 31, RHP
    Everyone seems to be trying to emulate the Royals this winter, for good reason, so why don’t we try to find the next Wade Davis? Morrow was once a dominant reliever with the Mariners, and has struck out over a batter per inning over his career, most of which has been as a starter. Morrow has been a starter the last six seasons, but he has managed only 54 ⅓, 33 ⅓ and 33 innings over the past three years. He likely would like to remain a starter, but maybe a team could convince him and his agent he’d be better off and more likely to stay healthy back in the bullpen. He is recovering from a shoulder injury, but could be ready for spring training.
     
    Tim Lincecum, 31, RHP
    Saving the most recognizable name for last. The two-time Cy Young Award winner had hip surgery in September, but hs is also expecting to be ready to go right around the start of spring training. Much like Morrow, there’s a case that could be made that Lincecum would be better off in relief, but he’s likely going to be looking for a chance to start somewhere. Timmy only has thrown 15 innings out of the pen during the regular season, but he was a key piece of the Giants relief corps during the team’s 2012 World Series championship run.
    Those are just eight guys that jumped out at me, but there about a dozen other guys who are intriguing names as well. Obviously, none of the players I mentioned above inspire much confidence, but then again, neither did Ryan Madson at this time last offseason.
     
    After taking a deeper look into what’s out there, I feel the Twins could add some upside to the bullpen without breaking the bank. Adding a Clippard or Bastardo would be ideal, but there are other ways to get Eddie Guardado some more help out in the pen.
     
    The real question is who is the guy? The Twins haven’t had much luck with these reclamation projects. Joel Zumaya and Rich Harden immediately come to mind. There’s a low percentage chance any of these guys makes a huge impact in 2016, but you never know with relievers.
  19. Tom Froemming
    When the news broke of the Twins' trade of Aaron Hicks to the New York Yankees for John Ryan Murphy, the deal seamed reasonable enough. The club was dealing from an area of strength to address one of it's greatest weaknesses. After seeing the free agent and trade markets evolve, things are starting to look worse.
     
    There was no reason the team had to deal away a player who would have been of value to the 2016 roster in order to solve the catching problem. True, Matt Wieters, the expected top prize of this offseason's catching group, was surprisingly off the market after accepting the Orioles' qualifying offer. Another potential target, A.J. Pierzynksi, quickly resigned with the Braves.
     
    Did Terry Ryan overreact to that early activity? It's certainly starting to look like it. Here is a list of the other catchers who have signed so far:
     
    Tyler Flowers: 2 years, $5.8 million
    Brayan Pena: 2 years, $5 million
    Chris Iannetta: 1 year, $4.25 million
    Dioner Navarro: 1 year, $4 million
    Alex Avila: 1 year, $2.5 million
    Geovany Soto: 1 year, $2 million
    Josh Thole: 1 year, $0.8 million
    Jarrod Saltalamacchia: 1 year, $0.508 million
     
    Those are very reasonable prices for guys who you could consider serviceable backups at the very least. Another move that went down Thursday evening has me further convinced there is even more reason to question the Hicks-Murphy trade.
     
    The San Diego Padres acquired former top prospect Christian Bethancourt from the Braves, giving up basically nothing of value to their major league club for the '16 season. This move is especially notable because with Derek Norris and Austin Hedges already in the fold, San Diego is almost certainly shopping a catcher.
     
    Going to Atlanta in that deal is the perpetually busted Casey Kelly, a 26-year-old former prospect who had a 7.94 ERA in 11 1/3 innings with the Padres and a 5.16 ERA between Double-A and Triple-A. The prize of the return for the Braves is 17-year-old catcher Ricardo Rodriguez. So, basically a long shot to ever be a significant contributor and a complete lottery ticket. Sounds like a lot better of a deal than giving up your starting center fielder.
     
    In 143 career games at Triple-A, Bethancourt has hit .299/.327/.435 with 12 homers and last season between Atlanta and Gwinette he thew out 23 of 52 base stealers (44%). The Braves soured on him over questions regarding his game calling and an increase in passed balls. The fact that San Diego jumped on him despite not having a need at the position shows they feel he was being undervalued by the Braves, and it seems to me like experience and instruction could go a long way in fixing those issues.
     
    While it's great that the Twins filled a huge hole in the organization by adding Murphy, who is a better long-term solution than any of the free agents listed above and has more of an MLB track record than Bethancourt, it's frustrating to think that hole could have been filled without having to part ways with Hicks.
  20. Tom Froemming
    The dominoes began to fall in terms of the market for starting pitchers when David Price signed with the Boston Red Sox earlier this week. There has been a flurry of moves in the aftermath, both in free agency and on the trade market, but one of the top options heading into the winter is still available: Johnny Cueto.
     
    With so many moves going down of late, it's starting to feel like Cueto may be running out of landing spots. Tuesday, SB Nation's Grant Brisbee took a look at potential destinations for the 29-year-old right-hander and came to the conclusion Minnesota would be an ideal fit. It's not that he feels particularly strongly about that opinion, however, calling it a dumb idea, but he defended it by saying Cueto to any team seems like a dumb idea at this point. Which is kinda true.
     
    The freshest images of Cueto in our minds is him being wildly inconsistent after a deadline move to Kansas City. But last I checked things worked out pretty well for those guys, though. In 13 regular season starts with the Royals, Cueto had a 4.76 ERA and 1.45 WHIP. That was before October, when things got especially weird.
     
    He had a poor first start against the Astros in the ALDS, pitched a gem with his team facing elimination in Game 5 of that series, got absolutely shelled in an ALCS start against Toronto before pitching a complete game two hitter against the Mets in Game 2 of the World Series.
     
    Throw in some past concerns about his arm and back and you get a very confusing picture. Taking a look back further at his excellent run with the Cincinnati Reds makes things look a heck of a lot more exciting, but his uneven performance with KC seems to have left a bad impression, despite his dominant performance on the grandest stage.
     
    Prior to being dealt, Cueto had a 2.62 ERA and 0.93 WHIP for the Reds. He would have been the 2014 NL Cy Young if it wasn't for Clayton Kershaw's historic MVP season. He missed most of 2013, but finished fourth in Cy Young voting in 2012. That kind of resume would have made him the top free agent in some years.
     
    It was reported that Cueto rejected a six-year, $126 million offer from the Arizona Diamondbacks. They were so heartbroken they gave all their money to Zack Greinke and all their prospects to the Braves for Shelby Miller. So we know what Cueto hopes to get. The real question is what will it actually take to get him?
     
    Many of the big market teams have already made moves to solidify their rotations. The Cardinals are unlikely to be open to signing Cueto due to bad blood over a brawl a few seasons back. There will still be plenty of suitors, his agent made a good point that all 30 teams could use a Johnny Cueto, but the market has already shrunk to some extent.
     
    The money going to some of these pitchers ($90 million for Jeff Samardzija!?!?!?) is getting crazy, but it would not shock me if Cueto fails to beat that offer from Arizona. The big hangup will be that whoever signs him will have to forfeit a draft pick. For the Twins, that would be the 16th overall pick.
     
    The Twins already have quantity when it comes to options to fill their rotation. Adding another middle of the road veteran would make little sense. Guys like Mike Leake or Wei-Yin Chen are not going to vastly improve the Twins chances at winning over the next few years. What the club could use is some quality at the top, and when you look at Cueto's resume it's undeniable that he's been among the best pitchers in baseball
     
    If you don't think now's the time to spend money on a starter, just take a look at next year's market and try to find your guy there. Stephen Strasburg is the headliner, after that it's ... I don't know, Brett Anderson? The Twins could trade prospects for a starter instead, but did you see what Arizona gave up for Miller or what Miami wants for Jose Fernandez? No thanks.
     
    So unless you like the idea of the unknown and want to see the team make a run at Japanese righty Kenta Maeda, Cueto is the club's best bet to move the needle in terms of making a splash in free agency between now and the 2017 offseason.
     
    What do you think? Is the price plus the pick too much, or would it be worth it to add an ace?
  21. Tom Froemming
    Last we saw Danny Santana he was riding the bench, lucky to get a handful of at bats a week as a September call up. After a frustrating regular season, he decided to go back to playing winter ball in the Dominican. The results have not been encouraging so far, with many of the 25-year-old's weaknesses still being exposed despite facing inferior talent.
     
    The Monte Plata product has had a particularly lousy week with the glove. Tuesday evening, Santana committed his fifth error in as many contests. All five of those errors have come at second base, a position he's only seen limited time at in the minors, but the poor glove work serves as further evidence that Santana is ill equipped as an infielder.
     
    Obviously, you can't read much into any winter league stats, but taking Santana's 2015 regular season showing into account, I think it would be best if the Twins completely gave up on him ever becoming an everyday Major League shortstop.
     
    I had assumed the club made that determination when Santana was sent down to Rochester in late July, handing the everyday job back to the steady Eduardo Escobar. But when Game 162 came around and Paul Molitor was filling out a lineup card of mostly reserves, he penciled Santana in at short, moving Escobar over to second base.
     
    That indicated to me that the club is neither sold of Escobar as its shortstop nor convinced that Santana is doomed at the position. With how poorly Santana hit in 2015, it almost went unnoticed that he also managed to commit the ninth-most errors of any shortstop despite making only 65 starts at the position.
     
    So, what's ahead for Santana in 2016? Aaron Hicks is out of the picture and it couldn't hurt to get Byron Buxton some more playing time at Triple-A, so I believe Danny Santana's last shot as an everyday player with the Twins (barring injury of course) is as the Opening Day center fielder next season.
     
    With a crowded outfield and prospects on the verge, his chance may not last long, but I would like to see Santana get one more real shot as an everyday player assuming he shows us something between now and Opening Day. It's almost difficult to remember now, but Santana was every bit as electrifying a rookie in 2014 as Eddie Rosario was this season. That same talent is still there.
     
    Things haven't been as disastrous at the dish for Santana in the Dominican, but it also does not appear as though he's is improving on his greatest weakness, either. Including Tuesday night's action, the notoriously aggressive Santana had drawn just one walk in 81 at bats.
     
    Plate discipline often gets better as a player ages, and to find an example of a player turning things around quickly in that department you have to look no further than Eduardo Escobar. After drawing just eight walks over 216 plate appearances in the first half, Escobar managed to tally 20 walks over 230 plate appearances after the break. Obviously that's a small sample, but if Santana could take a similar step forward it would obviously make him much more difficult for opposing pitchers to attack.
     
    While it's disappointing to see Santana fail to make strides so far this winter, I'm sure Molitor will give him every opportunity to impress during spring training. But if he can't even make strides in the Dominican League or even the Grapefruit League, his fate could be sealed as a bench player for the rest of his career.
  22. Tom Froemming
    The first domino has fallen for the Minnesota Twins' 2015-16 offseason, and while some feel the club's (pending) addition of Korean homer machine Byung-ho Park will force the front office to trade Trevor Plouffe, I think it will actually give the front office more flexibility for the year ahead.
     
    The Twins still have to sign Park to a contract, they've only won exclusive rights to negotiate with him at this point, but from what reputable media outlets are reporting that shouldn't be an issue. Park's addition would give the Twins another option in an already extremely crowded first base/designated hitter field.
     
    Yes, trading Plouffe and inserting Miguel Sano as the everyday third baseman would solve that problem (if you can call it that). The thing I'd be scared about is what happens then if Sano misses some time, or just can't cut it defensively? Do we see Eduardo Escobar slide over to third and Danny Santana or Jorge Polanco get a shot at shortstop? Everyday Eduardo Nunez? Ugh. Trading Plouffe would be a big hit to the team's depth.
     
    The "problem" with keeping Plouffe and moving Sano to the outfield is there is already depth there, though admittedly a lack of anyone I'd consider established. Off the Baggy did a great breakdown of what Sano in the outfield would mean to the rest of the guys in the picture, so I'll direct you there instead of rehashing that post.
     
    The Pittsburgh Pirates created a similar roster jam of their own when they signed Jung-ho Kang out of Korea last season. Kang started the year on the Pirates' bench serving as a utility player, but a combination of injuries to other infielders and continued improvement resulted him becoming an everyday player. He was one of Pittsburgh's best hitters down the stretch, posting a .931 OPS in the second half.
     
    Perhaps the Twins would be best served to put Park in a similar low pressure, low expectation role to begin 2016. After all, even the biggest Park supporters are admitting he'll likely go through an adjustment period. I see him starting the season playing regularly but not everyday at DH while getting a cameo at 1B here and there.
     
    Keeping Plouffe and giving Sano a look in the OF would also give Paul Molitor plenty of options to ride out streaks, give guys extra days off or survive an injury or two. One thing about the 2015 Twins lineup is it was remarkably healthy, that may not be the case again in '16.
     
    There will very likely come a time in which trading Plouffe will be the right thing to do for the Twins. It may be as soon as the 2016 trade deadline, but it's not right now. This team still has huge holes at catcher and in the bullpen, but why not hold on to in house assets and fill those in free agency?
    Keeping Plouffe around gives the team time to figure out where Sano's going to end up in the field, evaluate the young guys who have shown flashes but are not established and allows for Park to have an adjustment period. It's the right move.
     
    For now.
  23. Tom Froemming

    Off Day Video Dump

    By Tom Froemming,

    I've had a lot on my mind as we head into the 2020 MLB postseason, and have been sharing my thoughts over on my YouTube channel. This short season resulted in the playoffs sneaking up on me, but I found some time to get things off my chest. First up ...
     
    ATTN: Pissy Twins Fans

     
    Yes, I'm calling you out!!! This was recorded shortly after the White Sox series, and I was fed up with the way a lot of Twins fans were throwing shade at the White Sox while also dumping on the Twins at the same time.
     
    Twins vs. Yankees AGAIN!?!?!?

     
    Losing that series to the White Sox made it highly likely the Twins would face the Yankees in the playoffs. That, of course, created a sense of dread across Twins Territory. I'll admit that was also my first impression, but after thinking about it awhile my perspective changed.
     
    The Regular Season Doesn't Matter

     
    This is especially true in 2020, but the regular season doesn't really matter. It doesn't. It's all about October. How this Twins season will be remembered depends on how they perform in the playoffs.
     
    Bullpen Analysis Extravaganza!

     
    In this one, I just took about 20 minutes to share some statistics and opinions on the Twins' bullpen, which is one of the better units in all of baseball. Still, Taylor Rogers' turbulence has created a degree of uncertainty. How are things going to shake out heading into the postseason?
     
    If you're interested in more Twins coverage over on YouTube, click this link to subscribe to my channel. While you're at it, check out Twins Daily's channel, where you can find the Postgame Pint live stream after every Twins game.
  24. Tom Froemming
    I’ve been having bomba withdrawal of late. You can't give somebody 307 of them and then just expect them to go cold turkey! So over on my YouTube channel I whipped together some quick highlight reels of home runs from the 2019 Minnesota Twins.
     
    Jorge Polanco:

     
    Technically next up were Jonathan Schoop and C.J. Cron. I salute them for their contributions, but did not compile their highlights. I wish them the best of luck with the Tigers. Well, at least when they’re playing Cleveland and the White Sox.
     
    Mitch Garver:

     
    Eddie Rosario:

     
    Miguel Sano:

     
    Max Kepler:

     
    Nelson Cruz:

  25. Tom Froemming
    It's never good when a baseball team leads you to research the stages of grief, but that's exactly the type of thing the 2016 Twins are inspiring. Here's how my grieving through the 2016 season has gone so far.
     
    Stage 1: Denial and Isolation
     
    Last time I checked in, I was looking for hope with the Twins at 0-8. I wrote that there was plenty of time to turn things around and way too early to be looking for the panic button. When the turnaround didn't happen, I had no interest in investigating why until I went through some further stages of grief.
     
    Stage 2: Anger
     
    I haven't punched through any walls, burned my Twins gear or anything like that, but lets just say my language has deteriorated and I get a certain twitch in the corner of my left eye anytime someone asks about the Twins.
     
    Stage 3: Bargaining
     
    Also in my last article, I did some optimistic math. It was almost as if I was trying to convince myself 0-8 was a non-issue.
     

    "Well, it took 86 wins to get into the postseason last year. So if you were expecting the Twins to hit that mark, through eight games you would have projected them to have, what, four maybe five wins. So basically all they have to do is win one extra game each month than you would have originally expected." 
    Stage 4: Depression
     
    My low point here came during Wednesday's 9-2 defeat at the hands of the Orioles. It was rainy, cold and the team played like garbage. There were several big school groups of kids cheering their little hearts out to no avail, which somehow made everything even more sad. But hey, a day at the ballpark always beats a day at the office and my wife and I got put on the kiss cam, so there's that.
     
    Stage 5: Acceptance
     
    I think I'm finally starting my journey into accepting the fact the 2016 Twins are a bad team. Furthermore, I'm starting to question if it was foolish to have ever expected them to compete for the playoffs.
     
    I have many fond memories from last season, but the way things were at the end of that magical May definitely overshadowed everything else and seems to have blinded me from the bigger picture. Unfortunately, that was a mirage. At the end of last May, the Twins were 30-19. From there, they went 53-60.
     
    Another part of my bargaining revolved around how the bad start was just a small sample size. And through just 34 games this season, you could still pound that drum to some extent. But, if we combine their 8-26 record so far this year with the poor finish in '15, you get a 61-86 (.415) record. Tough to call a 147 game stretch a small sample size.
     
    Uh oh, I think I'm slipping back into the depression stage.
     
    Of course, this is just a tongue and cheek look into the season so far. If a lousy baseball team is most depressing thing in my life right now, things are going pretty darn well. Plus, the Twins will play better. There's no way they lose 120 games this season, right?
     
    Oh boy, am I back to denial? I thought I was doing so well. It's a process.
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