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RJA

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  1. RJA
    Nice thoughts, Nick. I am frustrated with the lockout and the FO, and I do miss the offseason ritual of rumors and hoped for deals, and will miss baseball if it is delayed. What I have done the past 4-5 years is take in minor league games in the Twins system, spring training and the AFL, and found that I enjoy those experiences as much as the MLB games. Luckily, at least that will continue this summer no matter what happens with the negotiations.
  2. RJA
    Great contibution. Thanks for the article. It would be great to see Kirilloff at first, and I suspect we will some of the time this year, and probably full time in 23 once Sano is gone (assuming Sano doesn't have a huge rebound year). I really hope his wrist is not going to be a nagging issue his whole career.
  3. RJA
    My favorite memory of Matthew is when TK said Matthew was in the lineup on a particular day as the Twins were facing a knuckleball pitcher and he wanted "all of his softball players" in the lineup as they had a better chance against the knuckleball. Matthew was a delightful and fun guy. Doesn't he look like a guy who would have fun in a softball league, especially sipping brews after the game?
  4. RJA
    Thanks, Seth. Nice summaries. I am especially intrigued by Cano. He can be lights out one night and walk the bases full the next. I imagine the team has tried everything to harness his control, but if only they could, he could be a big part of the bullpen. Otherwise, I fear major league hitters will tee off on him when he keeps falling behind in counts. He is one of those "if only" guys. Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to you and your daughter.
  5. RJA
    Thanks for the article, Matt. ZIPS does confirm a lot of what we already know, and unfortunately a lot of it is not good. Miranda might be a real find, but we need more than one year to verify that. Still, we can be hopeful. tony&rodney is right, Gleeman and Bonnes, and Hayes, are stunned that the Twins made no effort to sign a free agent pitcher. So am I. Maybe the plan is to try to trade Arraez and Kepler, or some prospects, for an arm, but those available are only 1 or 2 years away from free agency and we know the Twins won't likely extend them. A free agent would have been locked up for 3-5 years. Maybe they think Martin can replace Arraez as he has some of the same traits and is much better defensively. Still, looks like it could be a long season. I hope I am wrong.
  6. RJA
    I saw Palacios play at Cedar Rapids in 16 or 17 and thought he looked great. When I did my minor league trips this past summer, I saw him at Wichita. In both cases, I was impressed with him defensively--good range, enough arm, and good instincts. And, he hit well when I saw him. However, I know 5 games over a period of 4 years isn't enough to form an intelligent opinion. But, I am curious Seth if you think he could hold his own in the majors? Thanks for the write ups.
  7. RJA
    This is a very good series, Cody, thank you. I am not sure I see a big surplus here, at least for this year, especially if Kepler is traded. I am not sure who would patrol the third outfield spot next to Buxton and Kirilloff. Jack Cave, Kyle Garlick, and Derek Fisher are not the answer. Rooker has significant defensive issues and has yet to prove he can hit major league pitching. Maybe he just needs more at bats, but then again maybe he one of those AAA players who can't make the leap. Larnach I still believe in, but I doubt he will spend much of this year in the majors--I hope I am wrong. Wallner is going to need time to develop. If they try instead to trade Rooker or Larnach for pitching they will be trading them at their lowest value. Plus, if they trade either Larnach or Wallner they will really have issues in 23 as I suspect Kirilloff will go to first base once Sano leaves, leaving two outfield positions open. If Kepler is traded, who do you see being the Twins four outfielders this year? Again, thanks for your great articles.
  8. RJA
    Great exchange guys. I began collecting cards in the 50's (yes I am an old guy) and fell out of the hobby in the late 80's and 90's when the mass produced cards, error cards, etc. turned me off. Starting to get back in it. Will miss Topps sure. Happy holidays.
  9. RJA
    At this point, I don't think either of us will convince the other. I bet there is one thing we could agree on: let's hope that Lewis turns out to be a superstar at shortstop and that our budget minded Twins have to decide whether to extend him for 200 million! I don't doubt your commitment to the Twins or your baseball knowledge. Reasonable people can disagree. I hope you and your loved ones have a wonderful holiday season. Yes, get to the AFL. It is even better than spring training methinks.
  10. RJA
    I neglected to mention this is a great article, Lucas. Fantastic analysis. I do think Larnach has someone to work with as there are a lot of great hitting coaches that don't work for the MLB teams. I can't imagine he is not working on figuring things out with his old college coach, or another consultant. Actually, didn't Buxton actually say he finally improved his approach by listening to somebody outside of the Twins system?
  11. RJA
    I have to disagree again. If you are suggesting that there were not conversations between the Twins and the AFL officials, that is simply incorrect, as the Twins indicated a willingness to have him play around the diamond. I was actually at the ballpark there in the fall and heard the manager discussing the situation with some scribes. He indicated that the Twins welcomed having Lewis play multiple positions as they wanted to see how his athleticism played out around the diamond. He said he might play him at short a couple of games, but the Twins were interested in seeing him in the outfield and third base. I never said they didn't plan to play him at short, I said they were interested to see him at the other position or positions to evaluate his ability to play other positions IF shortstop didn't work out. I don't think you realize what goes on behind the scenes in the AFl concerning how prospects are played. I love being down there in the fall for that reason--you get access to players and coaches, and can pick up info even better than at spring training which is a close second. We have to agree to disagree.
  12. RJA
    He is a smart kid, so hopefully he is spending the off season working with someone who can help him adjust. But, this situation is a good reminder about prospects--there are no guarantees. Actually, I had a baseball scout tell me once that if you have three good prospects coming up through your system, once they reach the majors, one will end up as good as you thought, one will end up even better, and one will never reach his potential. If you look at the Twins, for every Polanco and Buxton, there is an Arcia, Kepler or Sano.
  13. RJA
    Thanks for responding. You are right about the draft, but conversation does occur about how players will be utilized, I know that for a fact. And, Brujan was playing second base in the minors full time even in the year that Wander was 17 years old and playing in rookie ball, so they didn't just suddenly switch him to second once Wander became "Wander", he was a second baseman during his whole career with the Rays. Also, if you check the 2019 AFL roster you will note that Lewis is listed as a shortstop. I don't think it was the short end of the stick that got the Twins, I think they were comfortable having Lewis stretched out just to see what type of position flexibility he had.
  14. RJA
    Good comment. But, three players were listed at shortstop on the AFL roster, but Brujan, a Rays prospect, played more 2b than ss during the 2019 minor league season. He was not regarded as a ss prospect, and actually is listed as a second baseman and outfielder by the Rays. Perdomo, the other player listed as a ss played 40% of his games at AFL at 2b. Lewis, on the other hand, one of the highest rated (at that time) shortstop prospects in the minors, played only one game at short, while playing 12 at 3rd, 5 in center, 5 in left or right, and 4 at second. There is no way that this breakdown of games would have occurred without the Twins knowledge and support. You wouldn't send your number one prospect to the AFL and have them play him all over the diamond unless you wanted that to happen.
  15. RJA
    If you have lots of shortstop candidates you probably don't have any sure fire shortstop candidates. I wouldn't mess with success and move Polanco back. I think the Twins will sign some cheap free agent, maybe Simmons again who is still a very good defensive shortstop, and his lack of hitting wouldn't be a big deal this year anyway as with no pitching staff it will be a rebuilding year despite the unwillingness of the front office to man up and admit to that fact. With young pitchers, I would make sure that I had an excellent defensive shortstop to aid their development. My recall is that Lewis was playing a lot of centerfield in the AFL, which may indicate that the Twins have real concern about his ability to play shortstop at the major league level. On the other hand, maybe they were just preparing for the expected departure of Buxton in the future, or for the possibility that injuries might derail his career. I think all of us will be watching to see how Lewis does in the minors this year. That might be more fun than watching the Twins.
  16. RJA
    I am not sure that spending money just because you have it is ever a good idea, especially if it were spent on an outfielder not named Bryant. Let's face it, Falvey and Levine lost the office season already by not signing a significant arm. Really ever other need pales next to the need for starting pitching, so outside of a shortstop, I wouldn't spend money on any other position UNLESS AND UNTIL the front office pulls off some trades for starting pitching. I would wait to see if that happens, and if it does, spend the money on any holes that are created in the roster (eg. Kepler, Garver or Jeffers, Arraez, etc.) as a result of the trades. Finally, if the Twins are willing to look at a long term contract for a position player, I would look at Correa or Story as that need is much more pressing that an outfielder.
  17. RJA
    I am not against trading Lewis IF the deal was right, but that is not going to be the case given his injury history and lack of great offensive numbers. I wouldn't trade any top 5 prospect for one year of control over any pitcher, and probably not for two years of control unles he were of the Montas or Castillo level. Now the front office's reticence to sign a free agent pitcher has really put them behind the 8 ball. I think they are trying to play the Rays' game but they have shown no evidence that they have the talent to do so.
  18. RJA
    Ted, you must be a "glass is half full" guy. I like that in people, and you are right about this not being a bad signing IF they had done something in the free agent market. But, they didn't. So, to say we should be thankful they signed a Bundy rather than a Happ is rather like asking us to be grateful that you are only going to cut off one of our fingers instead of our whole hand ;). Frankly, they totally misread and mishandled the free agent market and I am not sure what they can do other than trading away a bunch of prospects in order to have even a decent starting staff for 2022.
  19. RJA
    I confess I am a tad cynical by nature, but I don't see them making a move on Story. If they refused to be a player for any of the free agent pitchers--they were linked only to Ray and they wanted a 3 year deal apparently--I can't see them going for a shortstop for 5 years. I would say that Story is the weakest of the big names given his recent performance and getting the Colorado boost at home as he has hit .303 with .972 OPS at Coors and .241 and with a .752 OPS on the road, but he is still a big time guy who would make the Twins better. I suspect they will end up signing a fill in for a year thinking that Lewis will be ready by 23. As for trades for pitching, I would like to see a couple of the Oakland starters here but I fail to see the logic of spending nothing on free agent pitchers, and trading assets for any pitcher with only one year of control. To save 45 million, they will trade Arraez, Larnach, Sands, and Sabato and maybe more only to end up with 3 total years of control over 2 pitchers. It almost qualifies as malpractice that they did not sign at least one starter to a five year contract, and then trade for Montas or Castillo which would give them a fine rotation for the next two years, and if they cannot (or refuse to) sign them to an extension, by then a couple of your top prospects might be ready and hopefully Ryan and Ober will be even better. With 40 plus million to spend, what in the world are they going to spend it on if not at least one starting pitcher in a tremendous free agent class? I suspect the plan is to piece together a starting staff while suggesting they are developing "the next great trend in starting pitching" using openers and shuttling relief pitchers between Target field and St. Paul. These guys really do think they are the smartest guys in the room. I really hope for all our sakes that they are, but I fear their arrogance is going to be their Achilles heel.
  20. RJA
    Actually, Lucas, both sides are villians in this matter. Take your three issues. The players want to reduce revenue sharing. Who would that benefit--players like Scherzer, Correa, Ray, etc.--in other words, the top 5% of players who would benefit from large markets having more money to spend. The "ordinary joes" will not see this help them much at all as the additional revenue will all go to big name players, like Scherzer, who can make 48 million dollars a year rather than 43. How about the reduced reserve period? Who are the big winners again? The same super rich big name players who will make more money earlier. The average players are not going to see a huge jump in their salaries. Why don't the players make increasing the minimum salary by 200 thousand as a top 3 priority to help those average players at a time when they most need the income? Why don't they act as powerful advocates for how minor leaguers are paid, housed, etc? Why? Because it does not affect the powerful element in the player's union--we all know that a majority of the players on the negotiating committee are Boras clients and he brags to prospective clients how much pull he has with the union. Boras does not represent many ordinary joes. Finally, earlier arbitration would be the one part that would help everyone, so I could definitely see how this might help all players. Overall though, this is a battle between spoiled billionaire owners and the spoiled millionaires in charge of the players union. This is not to be taken as support for the owners. I just think your analysis was too one sided and showed your bias. Great article though. Made me think.
  21. RJA
    Good data analysis, Jamie. But, I agree with Mikelink that we should be fishing in the deep end of the pool, especially when we have 40 million available. If you added Bundy after Ray or Stroman, it is a good flyer, but with only one top starter left--Rodon who has huge injury issues--it appears if the Twins are going to add a premium starter or two, it will be through trades. It makes no sense to trade assets for one or two years of a pitcher when you can get at least one premium starter via the open market for a longer term. Buy one on the open market, and then add one via a trade and then add a Bundy type. I do suspect that the A's and the Reds didn't want to trade anyone until the top end of the market was gobbled up by free agency which would make the bidding for their pitchers a little more intense for those teams, like the Twins, who didn't sign a big name. I also thought perhaps the Twins were planning to use Bundy as a three inning pitcher in their new scheme to have several bullpen games each week, but when I looked up his data per inning, I found that he was no more effective in the first inning than the 2nd through 4th, meaning unlike Jax he gets hit pretty consistently through the first 3 innings. Finally, I think pitch usage could be a way to improve, but improving location is difficult or else there would be a lot fewer pitchers with great stuff still in the minors.
  22. RJA
    I would love Story or Correa but, alas, I cannot see a scenario where the Twins spend that much money on a shortstop, and with the current pitching staff, why would either come here unless you really outbid other teams, which the Twins have no history of doing. The other three options do not thrill me. I would look to the trade market as there are a number of shortstops who could be available--look at Rangers, Diamondbacks, Cardinals, etc.--at a reasonable price. If we land one, and both Lewis and Martin end up looking good at shortstop, it would be a nice problem to have. Also, if Yanks sign Story or Correa, they would likely make Peraza available.
  23. RJA
    The Yankees have 2 top 100 shortstops in Volpe and Peraza. IF they end up signing Correa or Story, they would probably make one of them, Peraza most likely, available in a trade. They desperately want to move on from Sanchez despite reluctantly tendering him, so Garver or Jeffers might be of interest in a trade package. Lewis is not certain to stick at short anyway, and could be used to spell Buxton in center, Polanco at 2nd, and probably at 3rd as well. He could take the role Arraez currently has so Arraez could be moved. Lewis likely will need at least half the year to get his feet back under him, and may not arrive at all until 23 anyway,. Besides, you can never have too many shortstops. If they don't sign Correa, the Yankees will likely hang on to both so this idea would be down the drain.
  24. RJA
    Well, it is obvious that the front office hasn't learned a thing from last year's fiasco. Like I said a few days ago, they are the dog at the dinner table waiting for free agent scraps to fall on the floor. Bundy is one of the scraps. It is sad, really.
  25. RJA
    Nice summary, Seth. Frankly, given the fact that as things stand at 7:00 am this morning the Twins starting rotation consists on two young pitchers, I would tender everyone, even Cotton, as a strong bullpen looks to be a necessity this year and you never know how relievers will do year to year. It is best to bring a bundle of them to spring training, keep the best on the roster, and stash the rest in St. Paul as it looks like bullpen usage will require frequent shuttling of pitchers back and forth from St. Paul. Had the Twins signed a couple of starting pitchers, my answer would be a little different. Also, it might be that the Twins have plans to put Cotton back in the starting rotation, especially if Rodon and Stroman go elsewhere, so I would tender him. If the rotation was in better shape, I would agree with Top Gun, but for now I would go with them all.
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