mazeville

Your Arcia percentage is WAY too low. I would, in fact, reverse Arcia and Sweeney. No, Arcia can't play center. But he is a big lefthanded bat off the bench. Letting him go would be really, really stupid.

This is perfect. I don't agree with everything in this, and would characterize the Twins' system as overly cautious and underaggressive. That is who Terry Ryan is. But the team's foray into free agency was both early and a mistake. They signed too many guys, blocking the way for younger, cheaper and higher-upside talent while effectively preventing the team, which is now a potential contender, from going out to get one guy who really could push the team over the top. In any event, the team SHOULD have had a lower payroll in recent years while it stocked its roster with young talent. It should have made more aggressive moves of all sorts to stockpile young talent. And then, once that talent started to mature and produce results, it should have gone out into the free agent market to get a couple of guys who could put the team over the top. Instead, the Twins' efforts appear to be more of a scattered series of signings designed to assuage the masses. It just doesn't seem very well organized.

That's an average variation of about 8.3 wins, which means that the Twins could end up anywhere from 71 to 87 wins. If the standings are similar this year to last year, that means the Twins would either be last in the AL Central or a wild card team. The stat in Gleeman's tweet is virtually worthless. It's almost a complete statistical anomaly that it ended up as close as it did. That said, it IS interesting. And it's it's nearly impossible to predict a baseball season because of so many variables like luck and injuries and all that. And if I recall correctly, PECOTA last year predicted a big decline for Joe Mauer, and that's exactly what happened. I actually view a 78-win projection as pretty solid. The Twins won 82 games with a suspect roster last year, and so they're only projecting a four-win decline. Whether anybody likes it or not, this team has a lot to prove.

That roster looks a little depressing. It really would have been nice if the team signed or traded for another really good back-end arm. Now just you watch: Perkins returns to form, Jepsen is lights out again, May is dominant, Abad is "Agood" and someone like Alex Meyer and/or Nick Burdi get called up and dominate themselves, giving the team a killer bullpen and proving everyone wrong.

They actually are two fairly big deals. They did something. Not nothing. I loved the Park deal. I didn't like the Hicks deal. But regardless of that, it's not nothing. What they haven't done is be more aggressive to address their bullpen. That's a legitimate complaint. But I still don't think that's about cheapness. It's just about philosophy. The other issue is that I think fans want them to be more aggressive and do something big. But I'm not entirely sure what they'd do. Could they sign a No. 1 starter? I suppose, but that's assuming the top-end starters would come here. Besides, at this point barring some form of trade the Twins have too many options among their starting pitchers. Could they have signed another impact bat like Cespedes? I suppose. I wouldn't mind seeing that, necessarily. But their decision to put Sano in the outfield negates that possibility because they're already loaded with outfielders. Also, I'm not sure that Cespedes would have come here for the deal he got with the Mets. God I hate the decision to put Sano in the outfield. Bugs me the more I think about it. They could have traded Plouffe, put Sano at third, signed Cespedes, and their payroll would be a little more than it was in 2011. Alas, they didn't.

I'm not saying the Twins should have traded Hicks. I'd have rather they have traded Plouffe and put Sano at third. Actually, I'd have rather they put Mauer at third to take advantage of his athleticism and put Sano at first. All I said was they haven't sat on their hands, because they haven't. They've done some stuff. I don't agree with all of it. But I won't say they've done nothing.

Uh, actually, they chose both options -- they traded from an area of strength (outfield) to shore up an area of weakness (catcher) and they signed Byung Ho Park. I get that a DH wasn't a big area of need. But you can't argue that they didn't do anything this offseason when in fact they made two fairly big deals. I'm not the biggest fan of what the Twins are doing. I'd rather they trade Plouffe and signed a back-end reliever. But they haven't sat on their hands, either.

Yes, it is. And their payroll is up by more than a third since 2013 with only one good season to show for it. And $10 million Hunter was replaced by Byung Ho Park. Payroll counting the posting fee the Twins had to pay for Park is down only slightly from last year.

Yeah, you know, probably not many because the team's farm system was in complete disarray for a long time. But the "cheap" strategy would have been to sign cheaper players for shorter-term deals rather than someone like Nolasco or Santana.

I liked this post, in general. But I do have a real problem with people complaining simply that the Pohlads are "cheap" and "should spend more money" because it's a tired, old argument that just doesn't hold water. The Twins are conservative, not cheap. Their problems are with strategy, not spending. The best sign that the team is not cheap came this summer, when they opted not to trade Plouffe, who will make more than $7 million a year, rather than play Sano at third, who makes a rookie contract. Instead, they are oddly moving Sano to the outfield, where the team has a lot of young talent (and where the cheaper Aaron Hicks and his defense probably would have been the better option, or perhaps Oswaldo Arcia and his left-handed power bat would have been good). I'd also remind people that they signed three free agent starters to multi-year deals in the previous two seasons when the smart strategy might have been to use those rotation spots for young players who might grow into reliable starters. That certainly would have been the cheap strategy. I would LOVE to see the Twins make a big free agent splash now and then, too. I think they should have signed a quality late-inning reliever rather than trade for one. I just don't think their decisions recently have been cheap. They've been the decisions of a conservative front office building mostly with young players.

Ryan himself said that he was disappointed in himself in his performance at the winter meetings this year. He has his way of doing things. And the first is to go cheap with the bullpen, usually picking up junk on the scrap heap and turning a few of them (Blaine Boyer) into serviceable relievers. I think the Twins' best option remains developing their own relievers. I'm not saying they shouldn't go out and get someone -- and I'm hopeful they'll trade for someone like Drew Storen. But developing the young guys enables the Twins to benefit for many years while those relievers establish their dominance. In theory.

Huh. So we have one high-priced catcher who had to transition out of the position after injuries and now we're considering another high-priced catcher with an injury history? AND it would cost a draft pick. I'd rather not. I'd rather look at trading Plouffe or one of our pitchers and/or a prospect in exchange for a youngish starting catcher. Or signing AJ for a year.

Nope. I think it'd be too expensive. And the concept of an "ace" is not easily defined. Cueto was mediocre with the Royals until the playoffs. The Mets developed their young pitchers. And the Dodgers have more money than they know what to do with. The Twins have a lot of pitching. A lot of it is mediocre. But someone like Phil Hughes could conceivably pitch well enough to qualify. Santana could pitch well enough to qualify. And the Twins could develop someone like Berrios. I'd much rather the Twins focus on their bullpen and on catching as well as eliminating the ridiculous logjam at the corner infield spots and DH.

No. I do not think the Twins should chase an "ace." I certainly don't think the Twins should go out and sign a free agent. The Twins' track record on free agent signings is ugly. And they owe a ton of money to too many guys. If there is a lesson to be learned from the past couple of years, it's that the Twins are basically terrible when it comes to signing free agents to multi-year deals. And I don't like the Sonny Gray trade idea, either. I'm not above trading prospects. But I think there's enough potential in Berrios that he could be just as good as Gray soon enough. Or at least close. The Twins are always better when they develop aces from within. Santana and an improved Phil Hughes could both potentially fill that "ace" role if need be. But I think that "ace" factor is terribly overrated. The other element here is that the Twins suddenly have a surplus of starting pitchers to the point it's a problem. We've got Hughes and Santana who aren't going anywhere. Kyle Gibson has earned a spot. Tyler Duffy has earned a spot. Tommy Milone has earned a spot. And Trevor May was probably the best pitcher on the staff last year. That's six pitchers. And then there is Berrios and of course, Ricky Nolasco. By my math that's eight starters. Even if the Twins traded for an ace, they'd still need to deal with this surplus. That surplus alone means that May will stay in the bullpen next year. It also means Berrios will be in AAA unless the Twins trade someone like Tommy Milone or Kyle Gibson. Oh, and that's assuming the Twins trade Nolasco. And if they trade Berrios for an ace they would have to trade another pitcher because none of those guys are going to AAA. On the bright side, it does mean the Twins have the potential of a decent to good rotation next year, especially if Hughes improves and Santana pitches like he did late in the summer. Tyler Duffy should be able to improve. Maybe Berrios forces the issue and barges his way on the staff. Or one of the other guys steps up. But it means no free agent starters.