Elliot

I think he started his Twins minor league career as a catcher.

Positionless players is not a good term when grouping these players together. I am fine with Lee, Lewis, Salas, and Martin being grouped together. Each is a high end athlete still holding out out hope of reaching the majors as a shortstop, probably the highest value defensive position other than catcher. Rodriguez is similar as a potential CF who will likely be an above average corner OF as he grows. Julien doesn’t fit here. He is more accurately lumped in with Sabato or other truly “positionless prospects”. That is not to say he has no value, just that his value comes primarily from offensive production. The same could be said for Rod Carew and Louis Arraez, two players who performed quite well for the Twins. it is not likely that the 3 shortstop prospects will all play that position on a regular basis in the bigs. There is a good chance none will if Correa’s ankle holds up. However, all three have the potential of being above average defensive players at other key positions (2B, 3B, CF). Just a closing comment regarding youngsters starting out at SS. I recall a comment made a few years ago, following the signing of two young Ss’s. Sano will outgrow the position, but Polanco is good enough defensively to hold his own in the majors right now. Right about Sano; probably overly optimistic regarding Polanco. It can be very tough to predict the defensive home for teenage and early 20’s players. Body development and physical breakdowns play a very big part.

I love the idea of a prospect having to beat out a veteran for playing time. Too often in the past young Twins have been thrust into roles because there was no other option. Shouldn’t be the case this year. I am baffled by an undercurrent in some comments that implies the FO is subversively working against youngsters to keep them from succeeding. There is no more valuable asset to a team than a young player on team controlled salary producing at the MLB level. If anything, there should be a conspiracy theory regarding the FO squeezing out expensive older players. The reality is that the FO is trying to win and is held accountable for decisions, unlike all of us here in comment land. After rushing players like Celestino and Jeffers in the past they now have to defend still having belief in them. One, or more likely a number, of the youngsters we want rapidly promoted will fail badly, at least initially. Let them progress at their own pace and only move them up when they have shown they have earned it.

Competition is never a bad thing. If the season starts with Ober in the St Paul rotation that means that either Ober did not perform, or the veteran starters were healthy and outperformed him. Same story with Larnach, Kiriloff, Julien, Martin, Lee, ... It really comes down to production over potential. Nothing wrong with that, especially if the young guys have options remaining and it doesn't force someone valuable off the 40 man roster. I think that fans all dream about the young player that bursts on the scene in ST and forces the hand of management. That's fun, but it doesn't really happen that often, and it is fool's gold to plan on it. There is probably more potential of that happening in the SP rotation than with everyday players. Ober, Varland, and SWR have all worked their way up thru AAA and made an appearance at the MLB level. There are actually no young position players other than Matt Wallner, and Celestino who can make that statement and are not huge question marks health wise. I hope that Kiriloff and Larnach are starters at the LB level when camp breaks. That would mean that they are healthy and have outperformed their competition. However; if either of them stumbles due to health or performance we seem to have some pretty good options this year. The June/July timeframe is huge this year. By that time Lewis should be ready to be back in consideration, and Julien, Martin, Lee, Celestino, and Wallner will have had the opportunity to show what they can (or cannot) do at the AAA level. There is then the trade deadline options of moving veterans or youngsters if need be. The most foolish move is to jump the gun on someone like Lee or Martin not currently on the 40 man roster.

If all of the pitchers are healthy (a big if for every team not just the Twins), I think the best move is to put Maeda into the BP. He has a lot of experience there during his Dodger years. In addition, it would probably help limit his innings total and overall workload. Switching between starting and relieving can be very difficult, especially for young pitchers. The difference in mindset and day to day prep seems to mess with some younger players. Ober, Winder, Sands, and others are currently potential MLB starters, one of the most valuable commodities in a system. Switching a young pitcher is generally not a temporary move Duran, Jax, and others are not moving back to the rotation. You hear the theory that teams should use them to reinforce the bullpen early in their careers and then return them to the rotation later. I am sure there are examples of that working, but I can think of a number of situations where it didn’t go well. Moving back and forth seems to be tough on arms and careers. More than likely health concerns will dictate who breaks camp in the starting rotation. But if not, my preference is to see Maeda in the pen rather than one of the younger players, unless the decision makers clearly see no future as a starter for the youngster.

“Would the team consider a six-man rotation to keep players healthy? ” I assume that the motivation behind a 6 man rotation is the health and protection of the starters. How exactly does that play out? The current approach seems to be that a starter goes 5, maybe 6, innings. I think the concept is not facing hitters 3 times. Relievers are brought in for no more than 1 inning. The result is one starter and 3 or 4 relievers per game. A reliever appearing every other game ends up with 80 appearances, a really high number. 3 or 4 relievers every other day means you need 6 to 8 relievers all cranking out 80 appearances. Going to 6 starters robs a roster spot from either the BP or position players. Something has to give, and I don’t think the St Paul shuttle is the answer since, although it spreads those appearances over more players, it is limited to players with options or a lot of DFA’s. If the limiting factor is “not facing hitters 3 times in a game” rather than innings or pitch count, maybe they ought to consider a 4 man rotation; 4 starters throwing 5 to 6 innings (70 -80 pitches), backed up by 3 or 4 relievers who can be expected to carry half that load every 3 or 4 days. You will have the occasional game with a starter going 7+ or getting knocked out early, but overall you set yourself up for a schedule that gets you through 7 or 8 innings before going to your 1 inning guys. I know there are arguments against that approach, but I just don’t see how 5 starters going 5 or 6 innings each, backed up by 8 relievers who never throw more than 1 inning can work. A 6 man rotation only makes it worse if they are faced with the same inning/pitch count/times thru the order limits.

When I was a young Twins fan I asked the same about Harmon Killebrew. Bad outfielder, bad 3B, OK 1B. Why not catcher. Then it was explained to me that catcher was the most challenging defensive position on the field which also wore the individual down and diminished their offensive skills. Glad Harmon didn’t listen.

Was that actually a Monty Python reference in a TD post?

I agree that Kiriloff is a key to the Twins 2023 offense. A healthy version is probably a powerful middle of the order bat, as well as an above average defensive presence. A continuation of the wrist issues probably effectively ends his career. If he is healthy, then the Gallo/Miranda backup idea is good. An occasional fill-in at 1B is probably a good thing for both in terms of future roles and versatility. However, in the case of a major problem for AK, I would prefer some other option as a full time solution. My suggestion for that scenario is a player already on the roster, Jorge Polanco. Although this might seem like a return to the issue that was there with Arraez, I do believe it is different. Polanco is not the contact hitter that Arraez is (nobody is), but he is a much more complete hitter who better fits the corner inf profile. 20 to 30 home runs and a high RBI total is a reasonable expectation for a healthy Polanco. Defensively, who knows? Arraez became a border-line GG at 1B in what was essentially a trial by fire. Can Polanco do the same; maybe. He is an average 2B who should be able to handle the switch, especially if he is given some reps in ST. The important similarity with Arraez is ongoing leg problems, something that hopefully could be helped by a switch to a less demanding spot. The real key to this option is not Polanco, but the potential replacements at 2B. The safe bets are Farmer and Gordon, both relatively proven players with some limited upside, but fairly established floors. Defensively Farmer may be an upgrade but Gordon's SSS leaves some questions. The downside being that either becoming a regular lessens the utility player pool. The young unproven options with considerable upside potential are Julien and Lewis (already on the 40 man) and Lee and Martin who are not yet on the 40 man, or even at AAA, but could be ready early or mid year. Since 3 of the 4 young options are probably not really available until June or so, this really opens the door for Julien to grab an opportunity to break camp with the big team if Kiriloff struggles health wise. I am definitely hoping that Kiriloff is able to make it back and have a long productive career. He seems to have star potential aplenty. However, for the sake of all of the names above I think it would be wise to start the Polanco experiment sooner rather than later.

There are basically 2 types of players who have no defensive home. One group is those who really can not play any defensive position well and are totally dependent on their offensive abilities to succeed at the MLB level. Brent Rooker, Kennys Vargas, and probably Aaron Sabato are examples of those whose bats will not carry them. David Ortiz is one where it could and did. The other group is those who have the skills to play the most challenging defensive positions at the minor league or high school/college level but fall a little short of being able to handle it at the MLB level. Many position players start out at SS because they are the most skilled athletes on the team. As the competition increases and bodies develop, some players (Gary Sheffield, Miguel Sano) move to other, less demanding positions. Others continue at SS with the hope that they can provide at least average defense at the most demanding defensive position (other than catcher) on the field. If their bats continue to produce, these type of players become tremendous assets, either as super utility players (Chris Taylor, Trea Turner, ...); or eventually as full time at SS or other positions where they provide defensive value. Bottom line - prospects like Royce Lewis, Austin Martin, Brooks Lee, and Jose Salas are the gold in the Twins minor league system. They can't all be the Twins starting shortstop, but my guess is there is an all star, gold glove 3B, 2B, or CF in the group. They are kept at SS thru the minor league progression because, outside of a potential ace SP or possibly a high end offensive/defensive catcher, there is no greater trade chip than a decent SS who can hit.

Barring trades, you can probably eliminate anyone not currently on the 40 man. The most likely spot to see a rookie break camp with the team is the bullpen. Again, looking at the 40 man roster gives the following names: Balazovic, Canterino (later in the year), Headrick, Henriquez, Winder, Sands, and SWR. Any injury that puts a pitcher on the 60 day IL (likely) could open a 40 man spot for another young reliever. Position players will be more dependent on injuries, trades, or total performance meltdowns resulting in a DFA and an opening on the 40 man. The 40 man contains options for the outfield that should allow for shuffling between the bigs and AAA; however I believe all have already made their initial appearance at the major league level. In the infield the only player currently on the 40 man roster who has not seen time in the bigs is Julien, making him a logical choice for first rookie position player to make an appearance. His biggest holdup is the dreaded "no defensive home" label. I would think they would be hesitant to bring him up for any extended play anywhere other than 2B or DH. That could change if he starts the year at AAA playing various positions to gain some level of familiarity. Lewis (later in the year) is also a 40 man option and has a bit more experience playing other positions (mainly 3B and OF) in the minors and AFL. Martin and Lee, along with Lewis, share the "no defensive home" label hung on Julien; however, in my opinion it differs from it being applied to Julien. I think Juien is similar to Arraez in that he doesn't really have the skillset to shine anywhere other than possibly 1B. It sounds as if the other 3 have defensive abilities. The question with the 3 current SS is whether they have the chops to stick there or if they will have to move to another spot. All 3 sound as if they have athleticism to be above average performers at 2B, 3B, or OF (including CF for Martin and Lewis). Overall, it appears that the young position player breakthroughs to be watching for in majors in 2023 will be focused more on the likes of Larnach, Kiriloff, Miranda, and Wallner; young MLBers taking the next step rather than young rookies. Look for rookie breakouts on the mound, either starting or relieving. By the way, I am somewhat surprised that there isn't more discussion about the fact that the only lefthanded pitcher on the 40 man who isn't strictly a reliever (Thielbar, Moran) is Headrick. The top 10 or 11 candidates for starting spots are all RH. Is it less of an issue which way they throw now, and more an analytical "how do they perform" against RH or LH hitters?

An interesting comparison is Kirby Puckett as a first ballot HOF’er. I am a huge fan and believe that Puck is the Twins best player ever and overall face of the franchise. Entire career with the Twins, 2, world championships, and many awards; but 2,300 hits, 200 home runs, and a .318 average are hardly the stats of a first ballot electee. The fact that he was so elected indicates an acknowledgement of the impact of an injury shortened career. I think if it is possible to look at Mauer’s career thru 2013 (essentially his catching career) using the same lens used regarding Puck’s shortened career, we would end up looking at Mauer differently. It is unfortunate, but the final handful of years did not help his case at all. He was really just a shell of the player he once was (.270 avg and a half dozen home runs per year) as a 1B/DH.

Does Joe Maury belong in the HOF? I propose that the answer lies in the following statement: “No other player in the history of Major League Baseball has been able to accomplish what Joe Mauer did”. This was not some statistical oddity like 4 triples on a Tuesday in June. Mauer won 3 batting titles while performing primarily as a catcher. Only one other player in history can make that claim regarding even one title. Catchers are unique. Analytics are not able give a clear understanding of wear and tear and how that, along with the demands of pitch calling and in game pitcher interaction impact the quality of offensive performance as well as length of career. Yadier Molina is clearly an outlier. Mauer performed best offensively during his catching years, and did it while being acknowledged as an above average defensive performer (admittedly tough to quantify for the position). His less than stellar “bi-lateral leg weakness” years at first base and DH cast an unfortunate shadow on his career. He was not without value (see the current Louis Arraez high average/low power/good defense 1B debate), but the extended career was probably more a contract result than a preference of all parties. In summary, I repeat: “No other player in the history of Major League Baseball has been able to accomplish what Joe Mauer did”.

I agree with comments regarding health. If the players return with reasonably good health I hope the team does not add anyone else. It is time to find out what they have in Kiriloff, Larnach, and Wallner; players who have already spent time at the MLB level. In addition they have a number of players (Julien, Martin, Lee) who will be knocking on the door very soon. Also, Lewis should be back by June or so. It may be overly optimistic, but I have to think that the Arraez trade bodes well for the outlook for Kiriloff. I doubt that the trade is made if there aren’t some strong indicators that Kiriloff’s recovery is going well. Worst case would seem to be that spring training reveals ongoing health concerns. If that is the case I would assume that more veteran hitters come available as the roster cut downs take their toll. That should result in a better selection than what is out there now.

Kepler??

Dump Kepler and throw a 21 year old who hasn’t played above A ball out there and say sink or swim. If he sinks, dump him too. Hmmm. Seems as if every other MLB team has already weighed in on that option. Any team could have had him for next to nothing in the Rule 5 draft. All they had to do was keep him on the 26 man roster for the year. No mandate to put him out there as a starter or ever even play him. That no one claimed him says he is a long way from that level. Doesn’t mean he is a bust or bad player, just still developing. Remember that the same situation occurred with Miranda with no one claiming him. It will be interesting to see if he is protected in next years Rule 5, and if not, will anyone claim him.

I don’t think it is a question of what Arraez brings offensively to the team, but a concern about the entire package. His skills with the bat play just fine at any position. The concern involves where he plays, how often he plays, and who he blocks from advancing. Even a below average defensive 2B who hits like him is of great value. The problem is that it is starting to look like his days at second may be done, and not just due to the presence of Polanco. At 1B he is blocking Kiriloff, a problem only if Kiriloff is healthy enough to start to reach his potential. At DH he faces the same issue, only with more competition. I am not in favor of “dumping” Arraez (or Kepler, Gordon, Martin, …), but if the Twins are looking for a young, controllable SP with more upside than Lopez, they are going to have to offer up some value in return. On demonstrated skill level alone I would keep Arraez over Julien, Martin, Kiriloff, Larnach or other prospects not named Lee or Lewis. When you factor in health and lack of positional value, it becomes a tougher call.

I am in favor of a minor league deal with no 40 man roster spot promised. My wife and I were at a game his rookie year, it may have been his first game or first start. My memory is less reliable as I age, but I think Sano hit a solo home run early. I told my wife to remember seeing his first because there would be a lot more to come. The more impressive at bat came later, with the bases loaded. I fully expected an over anxious rookie to expand the strike zone, but he worked a walk. My memory may be inaccurate but the point remains; he has shown abilities at the major league level that many prospects are never able to achieve. What has been lacking is consistency and growth. Keep in mind he was a very highly rated international prospect (remember the documentary) who signed a huge contract and remained a top prospect throughout his minor league career. He then signed a multi million dollar contract in his mid 20’s. Somehow we are surprised when a teenager coming out of the devastating poverty of Haiti (via the DR) is adversely impacted by wealth and fame in the US. All of this to say that if any player has ever been at a defining crossroads in his career it is Sano. I tend to think the fire that made him what he was in his early 20’s has gone out and can’t be reignited. However; he is still young enough and talented enough, that if he isn’t totally complacent and satisfied with what he has accomplished he could very conceivably reignite the fire and reward some team with a half dozen years of RH power production. I would say it is worth the low level risk of a minor league deal.

Gray - NO - closest thing to a veteran ace on the staff. Even if he walks it is no worse than a FA on a 1 year deal. Larnach, Kiriloff - NO - selling at a low point now. Maybe mid summer after proving value with effective return from injury. Farmer - NO - only real backup SS on the roster until Lewis is back. Celestine is similar in CF. Kepler - not a give-away. Only if you are able to get value. Good value to Twins until above return from injury takes place. Gordon, Arraez - in both cases you may be selling at a high point. Not thrilled with parting with either, but OK if you are getting something in return that is clearly better than the 4 or 5 young pitchers currently in the mix for the 5th spot in the rotation. Twins do not have to make a trade. They traded a lot of value out of the minors last year. Unless a clear upgrade is available at a reasonable price, I say roll the dice on a return to health.

Good move. I am happy. Unless something very significant has happened to his ankle, I am really not worried about $36M/yr for his age 28, 29, and 30 seasons. The backend of the contract now covers his ages 31 thru 33. Bad things can take place, but I like the odds a lot better than the other 3 SS being anything but a financial drain for the last half of their contracts in their upper 30’s. I know. $25/M/ year can sooth a lot of hurt feelings, but I wonder how much thought they give to playing out the last 4 or 5 years of their careers like Miguel Cabrera; a financial drain with no way to contribute. Albert Pujols was the same story, but will be remembered for his storybook final month. Overall, I think it is the rare win/win in MLB contracts. Much like Buxton. Maybe it is time to give this FO some credit.

"One-year deals are an admission of fault." I think a better definition is that they are an admission of need. As hard as it is to believe, if everyone is healthy the Twins have a roster crunch problem rather than a need for additional FA's. They appear set at C for a few years. 1B should belong to a healthy productive Kiriloff, backed up by Arraez and Gallo. 2B is Polanco with Arraez and Gordon in reserve.; 3B is Miranda's to lose and he will be given a full year to prove it. Arraez, Gordon, and Farmer back him up. Farmer starts the year at SS, but everyone is hoping for that to become Lewis by midyear. The outfield will be Buxton flanked by Kepler and Larnach. Gallo, Celestino, Gordon, and Garlick open the year as reserves. Wallner is ready as well. DH will be filled primarily by Gallo and Arraez, In addition, the AFL gave us a glimpse of what might soon be with Julien and Martin. Martin by the way is my pick to be the Twins surprise success story at the MLB level. Lee could appear at the major league level soon as well. These 3 all have questions concerning their future defensive homes, but have come up as middle infielders and appear to have the athletic ability to be decent defenders. Their defensive questions are much different than those of Rooker and other past prospects. I know that the assumption of health is risky, but the fact is, if healthy these players all have legitimate abilities to become solid MLB players, in some cases much more. This is where 1 year deals come in. The Gallo deal is the type that fits the needs of the team at this time. A multi-year FA contract could force Enlow type decisions with some of those mentioned above. If health and performance of the current young players is positive, then Gallo can be allowed to walk at year's end, or released/traded during the year.

Arguing over who has the best crystal ball is pointless. He has faced injury issues in the past, a fact that is reflected in the contract agreed upon. Both sides are protected. I am not sure if those critical of Buxton are suggesting he be cut, released, traded, or just publicly criticized since there really are no suggestions offered. I am sure Buxton, Rocco, FO, and most fans would love to see him healthy and productive for a full season. Pencil him in CF and the middle of the order and let it play out. History cautions the team to have a good backup plan in place, but it also shows that no one on the team has more “transcendent player” potential than Byron Buxton. Thank you Ted for sharing a bit of hope and optimism.

I think that there is way too much emphasis on the Gallo or Kepler comparison. True, they are similar in that they can play gold glove level RF and serve as a short term answer in CF. They are also both LH hitters with some past history that the team would like to recreate, As veteran players, both offer some certainty, unlike the hope/potential of Kiriloff, Larnach, and Wallner. Rather than the Gallo/Kepler debate I believe that the focus should be on Gallo as a 1 year $11M insurance policy. If Larnach is not healthy, or needs more time in the minors, Gallo can be the LF. Same is true for Wallner, who likely needs more AAA time in any case. The FO has dropped hints about Gallo being a potential gold glover at 1B. If Kiriloff cannot come back or needs time to get his swing back at AAA, we have a 1B in Gallo. If injuries continue to be a problem for Arraez and/or Polanco, or if one is traded, there may be AB's available at DH (with Arraez fitting in at 2B). If 2022 was not an illusion in terms of Gordon's production, he will still get AB's as an OF or 2B. What I am trying to say is that no one has to be traded, and certainly no one has to be dumped for less than market value. If I am not mistaken Larnach, Kiriloff, and Wallner all have options remaining and can begin the year at AAA. If everyone is healthy and producing come May or June, a decision can be made at that time. Any one of the players who are part of this ongoing discussion can be traded. If 2022 taught us anything it should be that the "If" in "if everyone is healthy" is a very important unknown. Worst case, Gallo is washed up and the Twins end up cutting him and they are out $11M with no future commitments.

Catcher, SS, and CF are the three positions where teams are most likely to sacrifice offense in favor of defense. This isn't because they don't want good offensive players there, it is simply because the demand for top notch two way players at those positions far outstrips the supply. To make matters worse, the shelf life is short, especially for catchers, shortstops, and Byron Buxton. The almost inevitable move to 3B (for shortstops) and 1B or DH (for catchers) leaves teams greatly overpaying for players at less crucial positions on long term contracts later in their careers. The point of the above is simply to say that you should never discount the value of defense first players at these positions. An above average defensive player at one of these crucial spots is very valuable, with the added benefit that the investment is generally lower and shorter term. My guess is that they were not dumping Rortvedt, but that the Yankees insisted on him to make the trade work, because they saw value. If Cardenas, or one of the other recent draft choices makes to the bigs as a defense first catcher it should be seen as a success rather than some level of failure that you are forced to live with. If the opportunity arises to draft the next Joe Mauer, Buster Posey, or Adley Rutschman, by all means jump on it. But recognize that in exchange for probably 5-7 years of high end production (rookie/arb years and first few years of a long term), you will probably end up with an extremely overpriced 1B/DH for 4 o 5 years.

Does anyone know the story on Dalton Shuffield? Looks like he was a 10th round pick, but rather than the 4 middle infielders drafted above him, he is the one who has been fast tracked to AAA in his first year. I haven’t heard any buzz about him.