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gagu

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Everything posted by gagu

  1. gagu
    I ran through 20 past drafts from '94 to '13. The 74th pick did produce some players who had some success. Jon Jay is 4-5 with a double so far tonight against the Twins. A 13.6 WAR over 9 seasons. Chris Ray had a good 3 year run with Baltimore. Tyler Chatwood fleeced the Cubs in free agency but he is a legitimate back-end starter. Jarrett Parker and Daniel Norris played a while. And going back to '87, Mike Benjamin was a reliable utility infielder for several years. My take is that it was a reasonable deal on both sides. Probably won't end up being very significant to anyone other than the players involved.
  2. gagu
    Morrison is a slow starter. Looking at his splits, if history repeats itself, he will suffer the same drought in July. His lines in June and August closely reflect his total average. The good news is that his best months are May and September. His career May/September OPS is 240 points higher than his April/July line. If the team is really in contention this year, having a historically strong finisher going into the post-season could be a great blessing.
  3. gagu
    Lewis is still 18 years old. McKay 22. Apple seeds and unripened oranges. Not knocking McKay, but Lewis is 2.3 years younger than the average competitor and hitting .356 with a +.800 OPS.
  4. gagu
    For what it's worth, Dynasty League Baseball is a very accurate computer/board game. This is their criteria: "Clutch Hitter" situations occur whenever the tying or go-ahead run is on base or at bat from the 7th inning on, or at any time when there are runners in scoring position with two outs. "Jam Pitcher" situations occur whenever the tying or go-ahead run is on base or at bat from the 7th inning on, or at any time when there are runners in scoring position with two outs. A Jam pitcher cancels out a Clutch hitter advantage and vice versa. Vintage Mauer was always a "clutch" hitter in the seasons that I purchased the cards.. I've forgotten the exact details now but I think it was the during the 2013 All Star game that Tim McCarver described Mauer as the best clutch hitter in baseball at that time. I love all the arguments and counter-arguments that come with the nuances of the game. So many gray areas. But I'm satisfied that Mauer has fit the definition of a clutch hitter.
  5. gagu
    Great post, Andrew. I assume the scoring % stats used are for the major league play. I'm relatively clueless about MiLB nuances. Never been to a game, but with having less experienced and talented infielders are grounded into double plays less common in the minors? Plus, I assume MiLB pitchers tend to give up more walks than major leaguers with first base already occupied. The logical strategy might be much different for A ball in comparison to AAA. Just spitballing. Anyway, it's another interesting thing to think about when scanning the box scores.
  6. gagu
    The coldest game time temp Morrison played in last season was 48 degrees, May 14th, in Boston. The temp in the other two games was 50 degrees. The three coldest games of the season for the Rays. While Morrison hit a homer off of Sale in the Saturday game, his series stats were 1-13, with 6 K's. Half of the small sample year with the same BA means little, but it goes both ways. Checking his splits, Morrison has a career March/April BA of .216, with a .637 OPS, compared to a total career season line of .243/.759. He clearly is a slow starter, but his July numbers are pretty much the same. His May and September OPS' are both north of .850. As Brock said, there are likely multiple factors in play. Conclusion: It's too early for conclusions, but part the fun of baseball is the hunt for conclusions.
  7. gagu
    Seth, please mention the age of each profiled player. Sorry to sound like a crank, but it's hard to keep track of so many players.It would only add to an otherwise great arti8cle.
  8. gagu
    One quibble with an otherwise enjoyable and informative article; Please include the ages of all the players in lists of MiLB prospects. It's one of the most important details to consider and so easy to forget. For example, I had forgotten over the winter that Littell is only 22 -years-old. A pleasant surprise. Thanks.
  9. gagu
    Not sold if this makes sense, but Granite could be at least a medium/term starter if one of the three mainstays hit the DL.Maybe a regular dose of AAA at-bats over occasional ML appearance would keep him better ready to jump in as a starter for a week or two if needed. Maybe not. Questions I'd like input on: Is LaMarre near the same level defensively as Granite? I've seen just one game (last week vs NYY) from my very distant location. Granite was in center with LaMarre in left. Granite made a nice diving catch after a good break and a perfect route to the ball. Should have been a double; LaMarre got yet another hit in that game; Does LaMarre have a better arm than Granite? No information to go on other than 77 assists and 24 DP's in 5670 MiLB innings.Granite, 35 assists and 7 DP's in 3482 innings. We do know that LaMarre bats righthanded and that the biggest OF issue at the moment among the starters is Kepler's weakness vs LHP. A point in his favor. Another point is that LaMarre is on a roll. A SP roll, but also word of an improved swing in play. While I've been enjoyed following LaMarre's SP stats from early on, and been touting him as the clear choice for the Sire of Fort Myers, it's only recently that I've given much thought of his going north with the team. It could happen. It's an interesting mixed bag for me and I'm fine with whatever the decision is.
  10. gagu
    My take is that Escobar will probably be the starting 3B for about a month as Sano sits out a likely suspension. Adrianza just needs to outplay Aybar until the situation is re-evaluated in early May(?). I value Adrianza's defense, but maybe Aybar's a better regular starter for a month. Maybe Gordon forces his way up in June and takes ownership of the position. I've never been a fan of Polanco at short, and 7 errors in 65 innings this spring hasn't helped change that opinion. Anyway, I'm OK with Adrianza and his strong defense for the short term.
  11. gagu
    LaMarre has been my guy since the first week and I'm sticking to it, though Romero has made it a horse race. Hard to crown a guy with only 8 innings under his belt, but 8 hitless innings with one walk is pretty special. Another point in LaMarre's favor is 65 defensive innings without an error, albeit no assists. Part of being the Sire should be the surprise factor. LeMarre fits best as the Sire of Fort Myers. Romero will have to settle with being a probable future star.
  12. gagu
    I don't see his 2019 value being an issue if he stays in the same form as last season. He will then project as a clear asset to the team. While that remains to be seen, he is doing fine in ST, .304 average, with only 2 K's in 23 at bats. If things go well, the question for me would be what he would ask for and what role he would play. Just speculation on my part here, I can see him enjoying another season of competing and not being too proud to take an $8 million contract with no guarantee of playing time. IMO, if he is in true form, playing time wouldn't be an issue as long as the team is in contention. I believe him when he says that he isn't going to leave in free agency and I'm not particularly worried about his past injuries. Point is, if he still has it, does he still have the motivation. If he does, he'll play for affordable pay.
  13. gagu
    mikelink45, on 09 Mar 2018 - 10:46 AM, said: This was a good recap, but without Royce Lewis in the conversation it misses a key component of the plan. Nick Nelson Today, 11:34 AM IMO Lewis will end up at either SS or CF. I don't see second base in his future. Could be wrong. I think Mike was referring to Lewis taking over at short which would result in Gordon and Polanco both ending up at 2B. That's my take at least. It's a mix of the present and the future, but if Lewis is on the fast-track and stays at short, he becomes a key component and Polanco becomes part of the equation at 2B. I know that this is a big factor in my thinking in regards to Dozier's future with the Twins. That's why I'm on the fence now and will probably stay there until way into the season. Will Polanco continue to improve his defense at SS; will Lewis continue to move up quickly; does Gordon more potential of being a better than average second baseman, etc. Anyway, it is still a good read.
  14. gagu
    You beat me to it, Tom. LaMarre started strong and hasn't cooled off in the least. He's been the first name I look for in the box score each day since early on. He's probably facing the weaker pitchers and very probably won't make the cut, but he's clearly the fun story of spring training for me.
  15. gagu
    Santana was originally was selected by the Marlins from Houston with the second pick of the 1999 Rule V draft. The Marlins arranged for the Twins to select RH pitcher Jared Camp with the first pick from Cleveland and then trade him to the Twins. The Marlins got the pitcher they wanted, and all it cost them was $25,000 -and Santana. Yikes!
  16. gagu
    I honestly don´t have a strong feeling about what the Twins should do about Dozier. I read and value most of the articles and comments here recently but I've yet to be swayed one way or the other. Its pretty much the same for me with the Vikings QB situation. But while the Vikes have to make a firm plan now, maybe it´s best for the Twins to let the coming months play out before committing to anything. I see the progress of both Gordon and Polanco as wild cards this spring. As someone mentioned earlier, if Lewis keeps advancing at a rapid pace, he becomes a factor in this. I love Dozier and think he has a couple of outstanding seasons left in the tank and the team can be contenders for a couple of seasons. Balance that with the potential damage of locking Dozier into a reasonably hefty 5-year contract that could negatively affect the team in the last couple of years when they could be stronger contenders. Best case scenario for me is that the young guys step up this summer and show that they can close the clear gap in production and provide solid middle infield defense in 2019. Until then, I´m on the fence.
  17. gagu
    Yup. He has had better stats vs RHB´s for the last five seasons.
  18. gagu
    Mauer also has better post-season numbers than HOFer Carew over only 40 and 50 at-bats, respectively. Mauer has a .275 DA, with a .341 OBP. Underrating a career for near average production in just a handful of post-season games is overrated. That said, clutch hitting in the post-season is certainly a big positive. For that reason, Puckett has to be right there with Mauer, Puckett, and Killebrew.
  19. gagu
    Thanks for doing the research on age, 2wins. I was going to do the same thing after reading the comments. You saved me a good hour.
  20. gagu
    You may be right about managers not wanting to play both catchers in the same game, but I don´t see a problem with it. I definitely believe that managers are hesitant to pinch hit for or pull a catcher from a game. If Castro got hurt, Garver would move behind the plate and Sano or Kepler could fill in at first. The Giants have regularly given Posey thirty or so starts at first with only two catchers on the roster. The difference is that they're giving Posey a break from catching, whereas the Twins would be resting Mauer. My question would be whether Garver hits well enough to merit the move. It could be a good way to get Garver more at-bats as he develops as a major leaguer. It´s an interesting idea, SF.
  21. gagu
    I don't think you can pigeonhole Allison as right fielder. From ´64 thru '70 he played more games in left than in right, and he was primarily a center fielder in his ´59 ROY season. For his career, he appeared in 8 more games in left field than in right. If you subtract his stats in Washington, Allison played 144 more games in left. Hrbek was at worst a pretty good defender. Led the league in fielding in ´90, twice 2nd, along with 3rd and 4th finishes. Hrbek ranks 51st all-time in fielding % at first base. Here is a stunning find; Mauer ranks 4th all-time, Mienkiewicz tied for 6th, and Morneau 9th. Mauer ranks #1 among all among all active players at both 1B and catcher. His Fld% at catcher is 6th all-time, tied with Jason Castro. Mike Redmond ranked 3rd, Pierzynski is ranked 8th, Lenny Webster, 11th, Suzuki 22nd, Ramos 24th. Conclusion: Hell if I know, other than the Twins dominate the statistic at C and at 1B. Gaetti played a career total of 36 innings at SS, 3 innings at 2B, 2 1/3 innings pitched, and 106 innings in the outfield. He didn't play a whole lot at 1b or DH. Gaetti played over 20,000 innings during his 20-year career, with 4 Gold Gloves. I´d give the nod to Gaetti at third over Koskie. End of nitpicking. An enjoyable, thought-provoking article.
  22. gagu
    Vargas Career Splits vs RHP AB 526 HR 26 W 38 SO 171 BA.241 OBP .295 SLG. 439 OPS.735 vs LHP AB 257 HR 14 W 27 SO 80 BA.272 OBP .341 SLG .432 OPS.773 What was the deal with Vargas in 2017? While the sample sizes are small, he torched left-handed pitchers in ´15 and ´16. VS LHP in ´15- .364 .397 .473 .869, VS LHP in ´16- 378 .462 .800 1.262 VS LHP in ´17- .185 .289 .308 .597 His combined MLB/MiLB career splits are more varied but seem to show better numbers as a right-handed batter. Did the opposition find his Achilles heel from the right side, or is there reason to believe that he can once again produce big numbers against lefties?
  23. gagu
    I think that it's conjecture to the extreme. Has it been reported anywhere that the vision problem rules out a potential MLB career? Is the 100/20 vision report false? Is a physical just a charade? As I see it, until facts prove otherwise, a defect was discovered that lowers his value to something less than $3 million dollars. It doesn't mean that he isn't worth signing at all. It just means that his market value has dropped following a customary physical. Due diligence is a good thing.
  24. gagu
    I don't thinjk the contract clause is much of a factor. Santana has logged 200+ innings twice in the past six seasons. If he regresses more than expected I don't see much chance that he locks in. If Ervin is trending 200 in late August, it probably will mean that he still has it. If his arm goes south, shows it's age, late in the season, it would be logical that his workload would decrease. There would be no need pull him early to prevent him from locking in. Point is, Ervin's history shows that he is a steal at $13/14 million when he is able to pitch 200 innings.
  25. gagu
    Note that the previous SEC Triple Crown winner was Rafael Palmeiro. A different style, but it would be nice to see Rooker bringing that kind of production.
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