Ted Schwerzler

The Minnesota Twins are looking at 2023 needing to put up a winning season for the first time since 2021. A significant portion of that being a possibility rests on the shoulders of the guys currently within the organization. Given the graduations from Minnesota’s farm system, Derek Falvey needs to see youth carry the next wave of competitiveness. Image courtesy of Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports Rocco Baldelli’s team held onto a division lead for a substantial portion of the 2022 season. That continued to be the reality despite mounting injuries and a roster that needed more done during the offseason. Ultimately it led to a September of non-competitive baseball, and a stretch run that carried zero playoff implications. In that, the silver lining was certainly the development of players that should be looked at as cornerstones in the year ahead. Here is a look at a group that could be considered the top five. Nick Gordon After being thrust into more than 70 games during the 2021 season, it was clear that Nick Gordon had some utility for the Twins. He didn’t do enough to show what exactly that utility was. He played everywhere, but was below average as a hitter, and while he was good on the base paths it was difficult for him to get there. Fast forward a year and Gordon looks the part of a late-blooming asset. He was particularly valuable in the outfield as a replacement, and his 113 OPS+ was a substantial step forward. He made plenty of blunders, both defensively and on the base paths, that should question how tuned in he is while between the lines, but there’s certainly a 26-man roster asset here. Jose Miranda No one put up a better year in the minors, especially for the Twins, than Jose Miranda did during 2021. His .973 OPS didn’t earn him a spot on the Opening Day roster with veterans ahead of him, but it didn’t take long before he made his debut. In 125 games, Miranda posted a 116 OPS+ and blasted 15 homers. He certainly struggled a bit down the stretch as the opposition made changes to combat his abilities, but that is something he can grow into as he continues to develop. Miranda won’t be 25 until the summer and he should have more positional stability in the upcoming season. Playing less first base would be good for him, and that probably says a good deal about the production of Alex Kirilloff and Joey Gallo as well. Royce Lewis Maybe this is a surprise position for a guy who saw such limited action during the season as a whole, but it’s impossible to overlook how much of an impact was made. Lewis had gone two full years without playing an actual game thanks to the pandemic and an injury. He then debuted at Triple-A and posted a .940 OPS forcing his way into big-league action. Carlos Correa going down with an injury opened a spot, and then Lewis’ continued production allowed a position change to be another way he got onto the field. An unfortunate ACL injury ended his season a second year in a row, but it hasn’t stopped the belief in him from the organization. Since he was drafted there has been no reason to doubt him, and once again, he proved that. Griffin Jax For a guy that was a failed starter a season ago, the organization and Jax continued to work together as they have throughout his career. From finding a way to get him action while still dealing with military eligibility, to transitioning towards a bullpen role, it’s always been a work in progress for Jax. His 3.36 ERA was bolstered by a 3.17 FIP and a K/9 that jumped substantially to 9.7 K/9. His velocity saw an uptick, and he emerged as a late-inning option for a bullpen that needed more arms to trend that way. Jhoan Duran If Jax was a guy that emerged as a late-inning option, Duran was the guy that emerged as the late-inning option. A former starting pitching prospect that threw just 16 innings since 2019, he forced his way onto the Opening Day roster. Baldelli probably saw Duran as a godsend given how poor the bullpen was from the get go. Emilio Pagan flopped out of the gate, and Tyler Duffey was DFA worthy well before he ultimately was given that pink slip. Duran put up a ridiculous 1.86 ERA with an 11.8 K/9 and re-wrote the Twins record books when it comes to velocity readings. There isn’t a single player in this group that won’t be counted on by the Twins from the get go in 2023. Baldelli has had a few changes to his projected roster from a season ago, and while the front office still has work to do, there’s no denying that 20% of the roster is represented here (once Lewis is healthy), and each of them will be expected to take another step forward. View full article

Coming into the 2023 Minnesota Twins season it couldn’t be more apparent that the success of this team will largely rely on the development and production generated from internal talents. As Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have waited out free agency, only small tweaks have been made to the expected lineup. One of the biggest boosts could be the long-awaited emergence of Trevor Larnach. Image courtesy of © Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports Seeing plenty of other talents fly off the market, Minnesota opted to bet on the bounceback from outfielder Joey Gallo. His addition likely cements the future for Max Kepler, and removes him from the organization. But that would place plenty of focus on youngsters Alex Kirilloff and Trevor Larnach. For much of their major league careers thus far, neither Kirilloff or Larnach have been healthy. They have each flashed an ability to contribute, but the next key development is a consistency to remain on the field. For Larnach, the starting left field role could be his, and the bat may very well carry him to levels we haven’t seen from a corner outfielder in Twins Territory in some time. Having played just 130 games over the past two seasons, Larnach has posted a career 94 OPS+. However, during a 20-game stretch from late April through the end of May, Larnach caught fire. His .333/.419/.619 slash line was a glimpse into the expected future of a player that the front office selected based on the prowess of his bat. Coming out of Oregeon State, Falvey noted that Larnach's exit velocity was drool-worthy and he didn’t possess a substantial swing and miss downside to his game. Fast forward to June and Larnach had dealt with a core muscle injury that had sapped his production. He was eventually put on the injured list by the end of the month, and then ultimately underwent surgery. It was expected he would miss only six weeks, but that timeline continued to be extended and then eventually wound up keeping him out of action the rest of the way. Minnesota is hoping this is the season that Larnach can put together both his ability and availability. Last year his 1.1 fWAR across just 51 games was relatively impressive. He shut down the running game with a strong throwing arm from left field, and he looked like an above-average defender posting six defensive runs saved in limited action. Steamer projections don’t view Larnach entirely favorably for 2023, projecting a dip in his slugging percentage. Then again, the system only has him playing 63 games during the upcoming year, and that’s not something anyone involved would sign up for. ZiPS has Larnach’s slash line projected at .234/.315/.374 with a 93 OPS+ and only 10 home runs. In any world where he’s actually healthy, it would seem logical that he’d blow by that level of production. For a guy who has always had a strong approach at the dish, and shown a good ability to be selective, it’s exciting to dream of what him putting it together could look like. Outside of the Bomba Squad outlier, Twins fans have wished Kepler would be substantially better offensively than we’ve seen. Larnach could be that type of player, and for a guy who showed such a high level of ability in college, betting against him doesn’t seem fruitful. We saw everything that could go wrong in 2022 with regards to injury. A clean bill of health may be the best thing afforded to the Twins in 2023, and giving that to a talent ready to break out like Larnach would be a sight to behold. View full article

There’s no denying that things have gone wrong for the Minnesota Twins each of the past two seasons. From being a near-90 loss team in 2021, to falling flat halfway through the year a season ago, it’s time the tide turns. There’s plenty of offseason left for the roster to change, but there’s renewed hope with Opening Day 2023. Image courtesy of Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports As Derek Falvey and Thad Levine look to reinvigorate Rocco Baldelli’s clubhouse, the goal for Minnesota will be to have their first winning season since 2020. While Covid gave Major League Baseball just a 60-game season, the Twins were still riding high from the 2019 Bomba Squad. That luster has now long worn off, and the fan base responded by generating the worst attendance since 2001. There is reason to believe, even in losing Carlos Correa, that the 2023 Twins will turn the tide and finish with a winning record. Here’s a few reasons to get on board with that notion: 1. Better Health There may be no team that had a worse case of injury luck than the Twins. The injured list could’ve won a considerable amount of games on its own as a team, and each time someone got healthy someone else got hurt. The organization decided to turn the page for the training staff and brought in Nick Paparesta with hopes of better results. We will have to take a wait and see approach when deciding what the actual impact is, but it’s unlikely that the same level of injury will be replicated year over year. Luck isn’t something Minnesota sports teams typically have on their side, but even a bit less bad luck would be welcomed in the year ahead. 2. Youth Development As much as the Twins need to bring in new talent, much of their internal pipeline has graduated to the big league roster. Alex Kirilloff and Royce Lewis are two of the most highly anticipated prospects for the franchise, and while both have yet to see health at the Major League level, they have the talent to compete. Combined with Trevor Larnach, Jose Miranda, and potentially even Brooks Lee in 2023, there is a substantial amount of home-grown contributors. The success of this organization in the immediate future will be largely reflective of how much each young player can tap into their ceiling. 3. Redo Tight Ones In 2022, the Twins went 20-28 in one-run games. Despite nearly an identical overall record in 2021, Baldelli’s club went 25-19 in one-run games. Obviously winning close games comes down to a multitude of factors. Minnesota did a poor job closing out games last season, and they also failed quite often with runners in scoring position. The former is a reflection of bullpen talent, but the latter is more likely an outlier given the overall lineup ability. When the Bomba Squad pulled off their 101-win season, they went 23-12 in one-run games. Being on the right side of tight ones obviously raises the water level as a whole, but it doesn’t have to be a substantial amount. Minnesota being .500 in one-run games a season ago would’ve kept them in the division and afforded a winning record. 4. Pitching Depth For the first time in quite a while the Twins have a pitching pipeline that we haven’t seen. Kenta Maeda returns to an Opening Day rotation alongside Tyler Mahle, Sonny Gray, and Joe Ryan. The front office should really add another impact starter, but having arms like Bailey Ober, Josh WInder, Simeon Woods Richardson, and Louie Varland provides a nice safety blanket. One would hope that 38 different arms aren’t needed in 2023, but we also shouldn’t see a scenario in which a Chi Chi Gonzalez type is called upon. 5. Division Door Open As has been the case for the past few years, there should be no clear favorite in the AL Central. While the Chicago White Sox have found themselves in the driver’s seat at times, and Minnesota has won it twice in the past four years, Cleveland surprised in 2022. With Tony La Russa out Chicago should be better managed, but the talent level could be argued to have slipped some. The Guardians are a team to be reckoned with as they have developed talent, but they certainly aren’t a juggernaut. Both the Tigers and Royals will want to take a step forward, but neither should pose a huge threat yet. A three-team race for the division crown will likely be tightly contested for the better part of the season. Everyone involved with the organization is hoping for a tide-turning season. The offseason plans may not have gone to perfection thus far, but results on the field could be drastically different simply because of who is already employed by this team. Minnesota didn't fall off a cliff talent-wise in a season, and righting the ship in 2023 remains a solid possibility. View full article

At this point of the Minnesota Twins offseason, it could be argued that Max Kepler being traded is more a matter of “when” than “if.” As Derek Falvey and Thad Levine put together the 2023 roster, they’ll need to figure out the glut of players in their outfield. What exactly is the German’s trade value though? Image courtesy of Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports Even before the Twins decided to spend $11 million on one season of Joey Gallo, there was reasonable expectation that Max Kepler’s days with Minnesota may be done. He is basically a known commodity at this point in his career, and while that’s not necessarily a bad thing, the front office likely isn’t worried about being burned by future development. In 2019, when Rocco Baldelli’s club went Bomba Squad on the season, Kepler posted a career year. His 123 OPS+ was easily a high water mark, and well above the 101 OPS+ he owns as a current career average. He had blasted 20 home runs just once previously during a season in his career, and he nearly doubled that with 36 in 2019. Kepler’s bugaboo offensively over the course of his career has been the way in which he contacts the ball. He makes solid contact and drives the ball, but his launch angle and swing path routinely generate the least desirable outcome. He gets very little lift on the baseball, and so even with the banning of the shift, he doesn’t stand to benefit a substantial amount. Generating a greater slugging percentage would require a change in approach, and Kepler has previously stated a desire to drive the ball towards the ground. Obviously his offensive profile limits his overall value, but defensively he’s nothing short of a Gold Glove caliber defender. Despite never having won the award, he fares well by both Outs Above Average and Defensive Runs Saved standards. He’s somewhat stretched in centerfield, at least at Target Field, but he’s exceptional as a corner outfielder. In and of itself, that should have value. When considering trading Kepler, Minnesota is likely doing so to create room and opportunity. In line to make just $8.5 million in 2023 however, dumping him for nothing is probably not a desired path to take. In seeing how the Arizona Diamondbacks benefitted from moving talented outfielder Daulton Varsho, there’s reason to believe Kepler’s return may be misstated. Yes, Varsho is five years younger than Kepler and has already posted a better fWAR than the Twins outfielder ever has, but their game is not all that separate. Results are truly what divides the two, but Kepler has equal or better inputs at the plate. Defensively, Varsho is an exceptional outfielder while also having the ability to catch, but as stated Kepler is no slouch with his glove either. The New York Yankees have been tied to the Twins as a potential trade partner for Kepler, and that has made sense from the time it was reported they wouldn’t go to great lengths for Andrew Benintendi. Gallo didn’t work for Aaron Boone’s club last year, and while Aaron Judge returns, the outfield remains largely in flux. Aaron Hicks is a consistent injury concern, and Giancarlo Stanton isn’t an ideal defender. Harrison Bader is a great defensive talent, but has never shown a consistent offensive ability. There’s certainly a need that could be filled. Even if it isn’t the Yankees, reports have suggested Minnesota will have no shortage of suitors when it comes to Kepler. That doesn’t mean the return is necessarily going to be earth-shattering. Likely, the front office is targeting prospects in return for their current starter. What Kepler’s desirability could do though, is create an opportunity for the Twins to choose the best package from any number of teams that come calling. Don’t expect Minnesota to net a top 10 prospect as the Diamondbacks did in Gabriel Moreno, but moving Kepler certainly isn’t just a way to clear salary or open a position. It may have been fair to suggest that going into the offseason, but the right fielder’s market doesn’t seem to be shaping up that way. View full article

By now you’ve seen the San Francisco Giants back out of a mega-deal with former Minnesota Twins shortstop Carlos Correa. The New York Mets then took advantage of an opportunity to sign him, but have come up with red flags as well. Did the Twins miss something when they signed the shortstop last spring? Image courtesy of Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports After Derek Falvey was able to shed Josh Donaldson’s salary in a trade with the New York Yankees, the Twins all of a sudden had additional funds. Thinking they were linked to Trevor Story relatively heavily, it wound up being Carlos Correa that they made a pact with in the wee hours of the night. Scott Boras and Minnesota’s front office came together on a creative deal to bring the former Houston Astro to a mid-market club. While the deal was officially a three-year pact, the opt out ability after one year was always going to be exercised. Correa landed the greatest single-season average annual value for an infielder passing Anthony Rendon, and he got to explore the market again this season. While it wasn’t a ten-year deal, the Twins still were looking to protect their investment in doing a physical prior to things being finalized. Nothing out of the ordinary came up and both sides went about their business. In a new report from the New York Post’s Jon Heyman, it was revealed that the holdup for Correa in regards to his physical deals with a surgery he had in 2014. Correa fractured his fibula as a prospect and the injury impacted his ankle more than his knee. The New York Mets apparently have similar concerns to the San Francisco Giants, but it’s not so much about what Correa’s body has indicated at all. Looking at MRI results from that surgery, and how he has healed since, there is a question as to how his leg may hold up over time. As Twins Daily’s own Lucas Seehafer points out, that may not be the best way to utilize an MRI, and could be much ado about nothing. Obviously Correa’s agent, Boras, has pointed out that he has missed very little time over the recent portion of his career and it has never been in relation to an ankle or leg injury. Correa’s back was problematic for a time, but that doesn’t seem to be anything of a concern for the teams willing to spend $300 million on him. When Boras began shopping Correa’s services again following the Giants decision, or lack thereof, the Twins were consulted but didn’t want to raise an already low offer and had questions about the physical as well. That may have been an opportunity for them to put their best foot forward and make an offer he’d actually consider, but reopening the physical discussion didn’t do them any favors either. The Twins last put Correa through a physical in March when they signed him during Spring Training. His injuries this season were related to the hit by pitch he took, and shouldn’t have created cause for concern regarding a malady they were unaware of. It’s not so much that the Twins missed something, but more likely that they evaluated a future differently. Although Minnesota’s training room has been turned over now with Nick Paparesta coming in, they had plenty of eyes on his previous medicals. The Twins ultimately would have seen the same MRI that both San Francisco and New York have concerns over, but rather than extrapolate it as indicative of future issues, assessed current condition and known outcomes while weighing them more heavily. Correa has already lost $35 million from his originally agreed upon deal with the Giants, and more could be lopped off if the Mets need to re-negotiate things. Maybe they go the route of including specific contract language like we have previously seen with J.D. Martinez, or maybe the deal goes belly up altogether. Either way, it sounds like Minnesota shouldn’t be thinking they missed something or that there is more they need to know. If somehow Correa again comes calling, the third time may be the charm. View full article

Thinking Kepler is going to be a good hitter because of the banned shift is widely overblown.

It doesn't make a ton of sense now, but that's because Kepler is still rostered. I don't believe he will be by Spring Training.

Earlier this offseason, the Minnesota Twins traded third basemen Gio Urshela to the Los Angeles Angels largely due to the fact that he would make roughly $9 million through arbitration. In signing left-handed slugger Joey Gallo, they’ve committed to an $11 million deal. There are a few different things they could be thinking. Image courtesy of Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports First and foremost, time has passed since the Twins opted to trade Gio Urshela to the Angels. When they made that move, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine were squarely focused on their pursuit of Carlos Correa. While they ultimately fell short as he went to the San Francisco Giants, $9 million for a guy that didn’t project to be in the starting lineup seems substantial. From there, we can also presume that the Minnesota Twins do, in fact, intend to have Joey Gallo start most of their games in 2023. With Urshela vacating third base, talented youngster Jose Miranda will be expected to take most of the hot corner reps. He performed below average defensively last year at first, and Minnesota has maintained that third base is still his long term home. That means Gallo will find most of his starts on the corners for the Twins. His most traditional position has been in right field. As much as Gallo is known as a slugger, he also is a plus defender with a big arm. Rocco Baldelli’s lineup currently has Max Kepler penciled into the right field spot, but it has been consistently reported that the longtime fixture has drawn plenty of trade interest. Although Kepler wouldn’t net a ton for Minnesota, moving him has seemed like the plan all offseason. In doing so, Gallo would draw most of his starts in right field. That would keep Trevor Larnach and Alex Kirilloff as the main left fielders, while also allowing Kirilloff to rotate at first base with Luis Arraez. Gallo has played first in his career previously as well, and certainly can take at-bats as a designated hitter for Minnesota. In the same vein of his contract, Gallo compares to the White Sox Andrew Benintendi and the San Francisco Giants Mitch Haniger. He may have a bit more upside than both, however, and a return to 2021 form would do the trick. One would think it easy to assume that Gallo benefits from the shift being banned in 2023. That’s probably a fair assessment given that he’s been outspoken against it personally, and we started to see four man outfields in large part due to his batted ball profile. Eno Sarris wrote a great piece for The Athletic back in September, and Gallo (alongside Kepler) was among the names touched on. In the piece, MLB writer Mike Petriello notes that while Gallo may not see the same shift, he’ll almost certainly still be defended differently. For a considerable rise in batting average, he’d need to drive the ball the other way, and that would be counterproductive to his batted ball profile. Gallo stands to benefit from a strong hard hit rate, and while things may rise slightly for him, his 121 OPS+ despite a .199 batting average in 2021 suggests success even in a non-traditional way. Ultimately there’s a few things Minnesota likely sees in Gallo that made him a worthy acquisition. First and foremost, they now have money to spend. That wasn’t the case (at least not in the straightforward sense) when dealing Urshela, and Gallo is certainly going to start. Minnesota may still very well be operating with a plan to trade Kepler, and that opens up even more opportunity. Then there’s the positional flexibility, Gallo can play all three outfield spots, and that helps to create a more fluid lineup as well. There’s no denying that Gallo was a train wreck in New York last season. He isn’t just a rehashing of Chris Carter or Miguel Sano however. Minnesota is looking at an opportunity to benefit on a bounce back, and even if he doesn’t offensively, there’s arguably little downside out in the field. View full article

Thus far this offseason the Minnesota Twins have largely operated in a Carlos Correa or bust vacuum, at least from what we’ve seen. There’s still plenty of work to be done, and one of the most important aspects remains finding a capable pitching addition. Image courtesy of Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports Carlos Correa was the focal point of the Minnesota Twins offseason thus far, and while they may have pivoted to Dansby Swanson, both are now gone and heavy lifting needs to be done. Joey Gallo is a fine addition to the offense, but it’s on the mound that we’ve yet to see anything of substance. There was never a reason to believe that Jacob deGrom or Justin Verlander were going to come pitch for the Twins. You could make an argument that Chris Bassitt or Noah Syndergaard made a good deal of sense, however. Derek Falvey has now provided the system with a decent amount of depth, to the point that a Jameson Taillon or Taijuan Walker contract may have been unnecessary, but top of the rotation help is still needed. With Sonny Gray, Tyler Mahle, Kenta Maeda, and Joe Ryan firmly entrenched in the Opening Day rotation, finding someone to join the highest level of that group is a must. Earlier this month I reported that the Twins were in talks with the Miami Marlins regarding Pablo Lopez. Sandy Alcantara is certainly not on the table, and although the Marlins are open to moving Edward Cabrera and Jesus Luzardo, it’s the already established pitcher that caught Minnesota’s eye. You can certainly debate whether Lopez is as good as Gray, but the two are much closer than one may think. Lopez has largely flown under the radar playing for an organization stuck in mediocrity, and he brings multiple years of team control to an acquiring team as well. Getting in the fold with a more progressive-thinking Twins organization could help him to unlock another gear, and considering the current state of performance, that’s a pretty exciting reality. Like it or not, the Marlins discussions with regards to Lopez largely hinged on the acquisition of Luis Arraez. Miami needs bats, and although Max Kepler could also fit there, he’s not enough to move the needle. From what I’ve now been told, much of this trade has been scrapped. The two sides haven’t had recent discussions, and although they could resume at any time, the Twins have since begun looking elsewhere. For the front office, elsewhere could mean plenty of things. What it likely doesn’t mean is the free agent market. Only former Boston Red Sox pitcher Nathan Eovaldi would seem to push the ceiling for Minnesota, and there’s been little reported that either side is moving in a positive direction toward one another. Zack Greinke and Corey Kluber remain available as veteran types, but again it’s hard to consider either a guaranteed lift to Minnesota’s group. The biggest trade chip possessed by the Twins is probably that of Arraez. His value across the league is not at all that of what is presumed by most Twins fans, but he could still be packaged to acquire a talented arm. That probably is not true of Kepler, and I don’t get the sense that Minnesota wants to dangle someone such as Jorge Polanco at this time. Maybe the depth pieces like Simeon Woods Richardson, Bailey Ober, or Josh Winder could be turned into someone with a Major League track record, but that seems unlikely as well. Given the state of free agency, it still seems most likely that Minnesota will flip pieces to get their pitching acquisition. How they go about that, given the recent moves sending guys like Chase Petty, Spencer Steer, and Christian Encarnacion-Strand all out, will be interesting in and of itself. Having spent most of the winter watching from the sidelines as they awaited a Correa decision, the Twins now have their work cut out for them, and we’ll need to be patient seeing what they can pull off. View full article

Plenty of front office insight on this. Correa had been leaning towards the Twins until the $300M mark was surpassed. The Twins weren't ever willing to get there, and Boras was never going to have Correa sign a deal that didn't reach it. You can't make an offer that comes that far short, hoping he liked his year here enough to take it, and then also watch as FA passes you by.

Going $285M and not being willing to hit the $300M mark is skimping. The Twins were at $280M in April. They increased the offer, days before he signed with the Giants, by $5M. That's still a huge chunk of change, but if you're never making an offer he was going to consider (and he wasn't signing for less than $300M), then waiting through FA for a deal that wasn't ever going to happen is pretty silly.

From the moment that the Minnesota Twins signed Carlos Correa last spring, they knew it was a one-year deal. For them to extend him on a long-term contract more negotiations were going to need to take place, but unfortunately, they fell short of pushing to a point where it mattered. Image courtesy of Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports Last offseason, Scott Boras approached the Minnesota Twins with a creative idea. For as much as Derek Falvey and Thad Levine suggest a willingness to find interesting ways to get deals done, this was Carlos Correa’s agent throwing the Twins a bone. Despite never before being able to play on the playground with the big kids, Correa was open to a one-year deal that provided him some assurances. He was going to best Anthony Rendon’s previous infield-best contract by average annual value, and he had a fallback option should the year go poorly. Early on in the season I talked with a front office source that signified an unlikeliness that the Twins could keep Correa around. It was known this was a one-year deal, and given the number of $280 million as a cap for where they’d present an offer, nothing more seemed likely. Then the offseason came. Minnesota operated in a way that watched as pitchers and position players went off the board. They stayed out of other happenings while focusing their dollars on Correa. The problem is that the offer was never raised until the final moment, and even then, by just $5 million. The Twins didn’t view the Giants as the threat they were, thinking their offer was closer to $300 million. Following a counter from Boras and Correa of 13 years and $360 million, it hit Minnesota smack in the face. They were never close. It doesn’t matter whether the Chicago Cubs or New York Yankees were ever interested. Steve Cohen even flew Correa out to New York simply to give him $300 million reasons to consider the Mets. The Giants could’ve waited until the last moment to hit Aaron Judge money, but the reality is that they still did so. With the Twins never surpassing the $300 million mark, they were never truly going to be in the running, and ultimately they came up $65 million short. Splitting the difference suggests that the Twins were unwilling to go an additional three years and $65 million. That amount is less than $22 million per season, and could be negligible by the time they’d ever have had to pay Correa those dollars. In an industry surpassing $11 billion this past season, Minnesota had their one chance to overcome a label of being cheap or failing to spend, and they failed to make the discussion interesting. It’s odd to think that the front office would see a willingness to pay Correa $28.5 million at age 38, but the hard and fast lunacy set in for years 39-41. The reality is that most shortstops start to hit a cliff somewhere in their mid-30’s. Correa isn’t likely to reinvent that wheel, and the back half of that deal was never going to go well. Suggesting they were fine with it, but stopping short of making an offer he’d consider, is an odd stance to take. Maybe even worse, as Correa’s medicals fell apart and caused a change of course, the Twins weren’t considered again. Boras went to the last minute Mets and worked out a 12 year deal for $315 million. That’s only $15 million per year extra, and two years beyond where the Twins were. Minnesota’s unwillingness to move into a realm that the shortstop would consider left them in the cold a second time. All of 2022, fans heard about how much Correa and his family liked Minnesota and the Twins Cities. When Byron Buxton was unveiling Minnesota’s new uniforms he talked of his former teammate and noted a desire to have him back. Now the front office has their $100 million man without the guy that he publicly suggested needing to be here. As things stand currently, Kyle Farmer is set to be Minnesota’s Opening Day shortstop, The revolving door at the position continues, and Farmer couldn’t be further from what Rocco Baldelli opened with last season. Royce Lewis isn’t going to be back until mid-summer at the earliest, and he’s coming off a second torn ACL. Prospect Brooks Lee looks the part of a big leaguer, but he’s thought to be moved off of shortstop at some point. Austin Martin has already transitioned from shortstop, and neither Nick Gordon or Jorge Polanco are going back. Baseball has key positions up the middle, and at the one opportunity Minnesota may ever have to lock down the role for a decade, they chose to value pennies on the dollar and cause themselves to again never be taken seriously. Correa may have moved on Minnesota’s contract had nothing else showed up, but the reality is that was never going to be the case, and now the Twins are left trying to figure it out once again. View full article

The past few years the Minnesota Twins have warranted a celebratory toast for the way in which they positioned their offseason additions. If we were to evaluate the front office right now, we’d be able to say they accomplished anything but that going into 2023. How do they save it? Image courtesy of Paul Rutherford-USA TODAY Sports There was no question that Carlos Correa was the focal point for Derek Falvey and Thad Levine this winter. Rocco Baldelli wanted him back, as did superstar Byron Buxton. Everyone said the right things, but when the dust settled the Twins presented an offer that was never going to get it done and came up $65 million short. Then Carlos Rodon went to the New York Yankees. Then Dansby Swanson went to the Chicago Cubs. Every top tier free agent Minnesota could have realistically been involved with sought other alternatives. No longer is there a plethora of starting pitching, and the shortstop group is the same holdovers that Kyle Farmer was likely acquired to help avoid. Unless Jose Iglesias draws the eye of the front office, or some alien-induced reunion with Andrelton Simmons is on the docket, there aren’t better options up the middle either. Joey Gallo is a decent addition for a team that needed offense far too often last year, and while he likely makes moving Max Kepler a certainty, that should be viewed as a net gain. Christian Vazquez works behind the dish, and he’ll take pressure off of Ryan Jeffers. There are still holes, however, and at least $40 million needs to be spent on filling them. So what happens? How can the Twins try to salvage this offseason? 1. Sign Nathan Eovaldi Eovaldi will be 33 years old in 2023, and he’s been healthy for a whole season just once since 2014. That said, he represents a player with the amount of risk Minnesota should be comfortable taking on. Whether Baldelli initially employs a six-man rotation or not, Eovaldi could find himself with opportunities for extra rest throughout the season thanks to depth such as Bailey Ober, Josh Winder, Simeon Woods Richardson, and others. When healthy, the former Red Sox starter can be elite. The velocity is still strong and his strikeout numbers are solid. He gave up too many home runs last year, but is just a season removed from Cy Young contention. With what is still out there, the Twins may have just one last shot to sign a starting pitcher. 2. Sign Will Smith Really, there are still more than a handful of solid relievers left on the open market. The Twins goal should be to acquire at least two with high-leverage ability. I don’t think they make sense as a landing spot for aging veterans such as Aroldis Chapman, Craig Kimbrel, or Zack Britton. Someone like Smith or a reunion with Michael Fulmer could work. Trevor Rosenthal may fit in this space if he’s healthy, but it’s the Astros World Series winner that should be prioritized. Smith has previously had multiple 30-save seasons, and although he has a 4.21 FIP the past two seasons, he was incredible with Houston down the stretch. There are lots of strikeouts to be had here, and Smith could certainly help Minnesota’s relief corps as a whole. 3. Sign Brad Hand The fit is a natural one. Hand is a Minnesota native and would give the Twins another lefty out of the pen. He posted a strong 2.80 ERA for the Phillies last season, and while his secondary numbers were down, the Twins could make some tweaks to return strikeout performance back to where it was previously. Hand hasn’t lost much in the way of velocity, and he’s a big slider guy which is something this front office has consistently targeted. 4. Trade for Willy Adames There were a few names I considered here. Brandon Crawford is being pushed off shortstop in San Francisco, but I can’t see the Giants pulling the band-aid off and flipping a fan favorite like that. Ha-Seong Kim could be available with the Padres acquiring Xander Bogaerts, and while they have Fernando Tatis Jr. returning at some point, the trio could be kept with Manny Machado having an opt out and Tatis likely moving to the outfield. Milwaukee has been linked to talks of shedding salary, and while they now don’t seem to be trading Corbin Burnes or Brandon Woodruff, Adames could still be available. Adames is in line for a $9.2 million salary through arbitration per MLB Trade Rumors projections, and he owns a career 111 OPS+. His 31 homers were a career-high last season, and although Farmer brings a bit of pop to Minnesota’s lineup, this would take that to another level entirely. Someone has to replace Correa’s production, and that was already in the context of a lacking offense. Adames has only played shortstop, and maybe the Twins don’t love that, but neither Royce Lewis or Brooks Lee are a slam dunk to stay there. Although this isn’t close to what fans would’ve hoped for at the beginning of the offseason, would this be enough to satisfy going into the year? View full article

Over the past couple of months, the Minnesota Twins have traded a plethora of their young talent. The top of the farm system is still relatively rich. When looking at who emerges mid-summer in 2023, it’s worth questioning what name appears from the top. Does Brooks Lee or Royce Lewis appear in the new Minnesota threads first? Image courtesy of Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports Royce Lewis has long been the organization's shortstop of the future. That may be why the Twins haven't signed Carlos Correa yet (although the fact that a potential deal for a dozen years and upwards of $350 million, or that Scott Boras is his agent and several other organizations are also interested might have a bigger role in that). There are also very real questions as to how Lewis looks returning from a second torn ACL. If you missed Cody Christie’s discussion back in November pondering who Minnesota’s top prospect is, then maybe you aren’t aware of the speed in which Brooks Lee is expected to blitz the minors. Now to be fair, Lewis has already appeared at the Major League level. He filled in admirably last season when Correa went down with an injury, and he was only in centerfield because the coaching staff saw his talent to be so immense they needed him in the lineup. It was just a 12-game cameo, but Lewis slashed .300/.317/.550 (.867) with four doubles and a pair of dingers. If he was healthy to begin spring training, he’d be on the Opening Day roster. Because Lewis is not healthy, there’s a real question as to whether or not it could be Brooks Lee who appears ahead of Lewis for Minnesota in 2023. I’m not certain that the Twins view Lee as a clear cut answer at shortstop. There were thoughts he could move to third base when he was drafted, but purely from an appearance standpoint, it shouldn’t be out of the question that he emerge before the former number 1 overall pick that has already made his Major League debut. As mentioned, the timeline in which Lewis returns remains to be seen, and you can bet the Twins will be cautious. On the flip side, Lee’s promotions have been incredibly aggressive and he’s done nothing to show he can’t handle them. Playing just four games in the Florida Complex League before skipping Low-A entirely, Lee then jumped to Single-A Cedar Rapids and posted an .848 OPS in 25 games. His eight extra-base hits, four of which were homers, was hard not to notice, but it was the 18/16 K/BB that truly stood out. Looking to get Lee an even more advanced exposure, and utilize his talent for a playoff run, he was promoted to Double-A Wichita as they looked to win in the Texas League. Coming into 2023, it would not at all be surprising if he began the year where he left off, even with how aggressively he was pushed to get there. Starting at Double-A Wichita would mean that Lee could presumably force Minnesota’s hand sometime in the summer. Maybe he would benefit from some final tweaks at St. Paul before traveling across town, or maybe he would be ready to skip a level and jump straight to the big leagues. Either way, the bat profiling as it did going into the draft has only continued to gain steam, and it’s carried his meteoric rise through the system. We’ll see how things go in year two as the opposition makes adjustments and Lee settles in, but regardless of which Twins prospect is the top one, I think there’s a case to be made that it could be Lee who debuts in the season ahead prior to Lewis. View full article