Ted Schwerzler

Byron Buxton is nearing a return to the Minnesota Twins, and while the season is lost from a team perspective, the final month could do plenty to set up his future. In the final days of July, Buxton was a hotly-discussed name related to potential trade rumors. Minnesota had made him multiple long-term extension offers, and the suggestion was that it was either accept or be moved down the line. Buxton’s camp wisely passed on what would seem below-market deals, but there have been few rumblings of further conversation since. I am a staunch believer that the Twins should be paying Byron Buxton. The only reason a player of his caliber is even remotely in their wheelhouse from an expense perspective in the first place is because of his injury history. Whatever valuation is placed on him will account for the reality that he’s been unavailable for significant portions of a season. Once the other 29 teams can bid on his services, or he puts up a 2022 season free of injury, the opportunity to retain him is now out the window. That’s why this next month could be so imperative for Buxton and the Twins. Having now been surpassed by Jorge Polanco due to his recent tear, Buxton was Minnesota’s fWAR leader (2.7) for most of the year despite playing in just 27 games this season. He was on pace to remain in the MVP discussion despite otherworldly seasons being had by the Angels Shohei Ohtani and the Blue Jays Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Assuming he returns on Friday night when the Twins host Milwaukee, he’ll have 36 games of runway left to go. There was a time that Buxton’s bugaboo was not only injury but effectiveness. We’ve long since overcome that hurdle, given Buxton’s .903 OPS over the past three seasons. Combined with the fact that he’s arguably the best defensive centerfielder in baseball, it’s impossible to overstate his overall impact on the diamond. Even if Buxton returns and plays at a slightly muted level, the likelihood that he remains All-Star caliber or better the rest of the way is a good bet. For Buxton and the Twins, 36 games is a crucial bargaining piece. Knowing his extension would be highly incentive-laden, it would serve the centerfielder well to be completely available until the book closes on this year. Should production stay in the realm of where it was, he may be able to use that as an “I told you so” effort to bump Minnesota’s offer. If the Twins see another injury derail the final stretch, it could be a feather in their cap to suggest the risk they’re taking on is immense. No matter how the last few games play out, I think this offseason is one of a critical juncture. Allowing Buxton to play out his final season without an extension would be a mistake. Minnesota needs to decide whether they’re going to commit to the uber-talented home-grown talent or move him for a package that helps to supplement the future. Either way, both sides will have one last hoorah in 2021 to point to when they reconvene at the negotiating table. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email View full article

My sarcasm font is broken

He's old from minor league standpoint now, but was with the Twins in Spring Training. There was a time he looked like a legit big league bat.

It was another Joe Ryan start for the Saints, which means plenty of strikeouts and a stingy effort. 2020 1st round pick Aaron Sabato also made his High-A debut in a doubleheader for Cedar Rapids. TRANSACTIONS IF Zander Wiel was activated from the St. Paul Injured List and released from the Twins organization SAINTS SENTINEL Toledo 4, St. Paul 2 Box Score Joe Ryan took the ball for the Saints tonight and continued his impressive performance since joining the Twins organization. He worked five innings and allowed just a single run on four hits and a walk. Continuing to rack up strikeouts, he punched out eight on the evening. Luke Farrell began his rehab stint for the Twins and worked 1 2/3 innings giving up two runs on two hits but did strike out three batters. Mark Contreras tallied St. Paul’s first runs on a two-run blast in the 6th inning. His 13th homer of the year scored Byron Buxton and gave the Saints a 2-1 lead. Unfortunately, Toledo took the lead back in the 7th, and top prospect Spencer Torkelson launched his first homer for the Mud Hens in the 8th. Contreras contributed a multi-hit effort and was joined by the rehabbing Buxton who was also 2-for-4. WIND SURGE WISDOM Tulsa 3, Wichita 2 Box Score The Wind Surge sent Tyler Beck to the bump tonight, and he contributed 5 2/3 of solid work. Giving up three runs on four hits, he was burned by the longball with three leaving the yard. Beck did record six strikeouts on the evening to balance out the three free passes. Wichita kicked off the scoring in the 4th inning when Trey Cabbage homered for the 15th time with Wichita, his 24th overall this season. The 1-0 lead was erased in the 5th inning before Tulsa added two more runs in the 6th inning. Roy Morales looked to make things interesting when he plated Chris Williams in the 7th inning, but that’s when the rally fell short. KERNELS NUGGETS Game 1: Beloit 3, Cedar Rapids 1 Box Score It was Louie Varland’s turn in the rotation tonight, and he put up a solid effort. Working five strong innings allowing just two runs on six hits, he limited the damage by fanning five and walking just one batter. Cedar Rapids trailed after the 1st inning, but it was Wander Javier who singled to drive in Aaron Sabato and tie things up in the 2nd inning. Mustering just two more hits the rest of the way, Beloit’s additional two runs were never matched. No one recorded a multi-hit effort for the Kernels in this one, but Sabato did register his first hit, a double, in his first at bat. Game 2: Cedar Rapids 6, Beloit 4 Box Score Looking to split the doubleheader the Kernels turned to Tyler Watson in the nightcap. He lasted only four innings, but gave up just three runs on two hits and two walks. Watson did strike out two batters but was burned by a home run. Derek Molina worked two innings in relief and earned his seventh win of the season. Cedar Rapids jumped out to the early lead in this one after Wander Javier jacked a solo shot, his 11th of the season, in the 2nd inning. Trailing following a 4th inning three-run blast, the Kernels went to work in the 6th inning. Javier started the scoring again by driving in Sabato with a single. Jeferson Morales then crushed a three-run homer to score Seth Gray and Javier while recapturing the lead and providing some distance. Edouard Julien doubled up the Snappers score when his single allowed Gabriel Maciel to score the sixth run for Cedar Rapids. This was an equal effort with only Javier providing two hits on the evening. Sabato did hit his second double in as many games, and started his High-A exposure by going 2-for-6 in the doubleheader. MUSSEL MATTERS Game 1: Bradenton 7, Fort Myers 0 Box Score Fort Myers went with a bullpen effort in this one as Casey Legumina took the ball in the 1st inning. He struck out two batters and walked one but left the inning unscathed. Unfortunately, Bradenton put up a three spot in the third inning, and with a run in between, replicated that in the 6th inning. The Mighty Mussels mustered just two hits in the front half of the doubleheader, and it wasn't going to be enough to catch the Maurauders. Game 2: Fort Myers 12, Bradenton 1 Box Score Matt Mullenbach was on to make his Low-A debut and worked four innings, allowing just one run on six hits while punching out four batters. Despite this one going into the early hours of Thursday morning, he was as sharp as can be expected. Charles Mack scored on a 2nd inning wild pitch to give Fort Myers their first lead before Patrick Winkel drove in Justin Washington in the 3rd inning. The Mighty Mussels were flexing again in the 4th inning as Alerick Soularie drove in Washington and Will Holland to double up their output. In the 7th inning, still leading 4-1, Fort Myers added on in a big way for good measure. Jesus Feliz hit his sixth homer of the season, a three-run blast, that pushed the lead to six. A bases loaded walk for Willie Joe Garry scored Mack, and a Holland Single scored Christian Encarnacion-Strand. Washington worked the second bases loaded walk of the inning, and that was followed by walks for Soularie and Winkel. The Mighty Mussels added eight total in the frame, and four came by way of the free pass. Soularie, Winkel, and Holland all posted multi-hit efforts on the nightcap that stretched into the early morning hours. COMPLEX CHRONICLES Scheduled day off TWINS DAILY MINOR LEAGUE PLAYERS OF THE DAY Pitcher of the Day - Joe Ryan (St. Paul) - 5.0 IP, 4 H, R, ER, BB, 8 K Hitter of the Day - Mark Contreras (St. Paul) - 2-4, R, 2 RBI, HR(13) PROSPECT SUMMARY #1 - Royce Lewis (Rehab) - Out for season (torn ACL) #2 - Austin Martin (Wichita) - 0-3, BB, 2 K #3 - Jordan Balazovic (Wichita) - Did not pitch #4 - Simeon Woods Richardson (Wichita) - Did not pitch #5 - Jhoan Duran (St. Paul) - Injured List (elbow strain) #6 - Jose Miranda (St. Paul) - 1-5, 2B, K #7 - Joe Ryan (St. Paul) - 5.0 IP, 4 H, R, ER, BB, 8 K #8 - Matt Canterino (Cedar Rapids) - Injured List (right elbow strain) #9 - Chase Petty (Complex) - No game #10 - Keoni Cavaco (Fort Myers) - 1-3 #11 - Josh Winder (St. Paul) - Injured List #12 - Matt Wallner (Cedar Rapids) - 0-6,BB, 3 K #13 - Gilberto Celestino (St. Paul) - 0-1, K (PH) #14 - Drew Strotman (St. Paul) - Did not pitch #15 - Noah Miller (Complex) - No game #16 - Brent Rooker (Minnesota) - Did not play #17 - Blayne Enlow (Cedar Rapids) - Out for season (Tommy John surgery) #18 - Misael Urbina (Fort Myers) - 0-3, K #19 - Cole Sands (Wichita) - Did not pitch #20 - Spencer Steer (Wichita) - 0-4, 2 K THURSDAY’S PROBABLE STARTERS St. Paul @ Toledo (5:35 PM CST) - RHP Randy Dobnak (0-1, 3.38 ERA) Tulsa @ Wichita (7:05 PM CST) - RHP Jordan Balazovic (4-2, 3.42 ERA) Cedar Rapids @ Beloit (6:35 PM CST) - RHP Sawyer Gipson-Long (1-1, 3.27 ERA) Bradenton @ Fort Myers (6:00 PM CST) - RHP Sean Mooney (0-1, 1.08 ERA) Please feel free to ask questions and discuss Wednesday’s games View full article

Once again, last night, the Twins dropped a game in which their pitching let them down. On the positive side, they produced offensively, but they’re only holding up half of the bargain. After an ugly series against the New York Yankees, Minnesota went to Boston with an opportunity to reset. In a game that the Twins put up 14 hits and scored nine runs, they still found themselves on the short side of the ledger. While this season has gone nothing as was expected, this is a reality that’s played out far too often. The Athletic’s Aaron Gleeman has consistently reported one of the most telling statistics tied to this club during the season. Giving up five or fewer runs in a baseball game on a nightly basis should not be a difficult task. It also should not so consistently result in an inability to overcome. The turnover in their starting rotation has compounded Minnesota's ineptitude to pitch. The path forward looks even more gloomy with the uncertainty of Kenta Maeda’s health going into the offseason. Offensively the Twins are no longer the Bomba Squad, but they’re hardly a lackluster unit. With 577 runs scored, they are 13th in baseball as a team. They are 13th and 14th in average and on-base percentage, respectively, while rounding out the top 10 in OPS. That’s not by any means world-beating numbers, but being middle-of-the-pack should present a substantially greater opportunity for competitiveness. It’s on the bump where things go completely off the rails. The Twins are 26th in pitcher fWAR, and their 5.00 ERA is 27th in baseball. At 21.7%, they are striking out batters 23rd most across the sport, and there’s been little semblance of bright spots. During the broadcast, Dick Bremer noted the Twins need to overhaul the relief corps in 2022 while Caleb Thielbar was on the mound. The formerly retired pitcher has been a pleasant surprise and was noted by the broadcaster as a near-lock for the unit in the year ahead. He then promptly gave up a two-run shot to Red Sox utility man Enrique Hernandez and Minnesota’s season predictability was as evident as ever. Tonight Rocco Baldelli will turn to another bright spot, Bailey Ober, in hopes of getting back in the win column. Minnesota is an underdog at Fenway while the Red Sox are chasing down Tampa Bay, currently sitting 6.5 back in the AL East. There have been bright spots for this club, but they haven’t been on the mound. Looking to salvage something over the last month, seeing performance from the bump would be a much-welcomed reality View full article

The Minnesota Twins have slogged through a dismal 2021 in large part due to an inability to find consistent pitching. With a starting rotation now entirely flipped on its head, finding a silver lining may seem difficult, but I encourage you to dream on Bailey Ober. During his first Major League Baseball draft as the Twins President of Baseball Operations, Derek Falvey’s club selected Ober in the 12th round. Ober was a 21-year-old pitching for the College of Charleston and threw 28 innings for Elizabethton during the summer of 2017. In 2018-19, Ober rose the ranks from Single-A to Double-A and finished with a 0.38 ERA across 24.0 IP for Pensacola. The strikeout numbers were gaudy, and the walk rate was stingy. At 6’9” Ober has the uncanny ability to get on an opposing batter with quickness. His average fastball velocity this season has been just 92 mph, but with such a long stride the pitch is being delivered much closer to 50 feet from home plate. The year with no minor league action certainly didn’t help a guy needing innings due to injury, but it’s clear that he’s put in work. Despite the Twins needing to call on Ober sooner than they may have liked; he also forced their hand by owning a 2.81 ERA across his first 16 innings of work for Triple-A St. Paul. What we can easily see in the track record is that there’s never been a point at which Ober wasn’t a dominant force on the farm. The only knock on him thus far has been his availability, or more succinctly, his injury history. Now over 63 innings into his Major League career, we’re seeing the same type of results that have become the expectation thus far. A 4.38 ERA through 14 starts is hardly anything to scoff at, but it’s an even more impressive 3.46 through his last eight turns (39.0 IP). Ober’s bugaboo thus far has been the longball, giving up 14 in his time with the Twins, and a 2.0 HR/9 that seems certain to normalize. He has maintained the strong strikeout rate (9.2 K/9) and continued to limit free passes (2.3 BB/9). Understanding that this is Ober’s initial run through a big league gambit, it’s fair to assume we haven’t seen the best of him yet. He’s still learning the opposition, and of course the league will be given a chance to adjust to him as well. Although the Twins have been dealt multiple blows in the rotation this year, allowing Ober to showcase his stuff is something that should provide plenty of excitement for Minnesota fans. As has been the case over the course of his career to this point, keeping Ober healthy and on the mound is the next must for the organization. Maybe he gets shut down soon having now reached a career high in professional innings pitched during a single season. That isn’t a bad idea given where the season currently stands, and it still allows the heightened hurler plenty to build off of for 2022. It’d be hard to see a scenario where Ober isn’t in the rotation on Opening Day next year, and that should be cause for more excitement than concern. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

There were some notable performances tonight across the Twins system, but none may have been more impactful than how recently-acquired prospect Joe Ryan started his tenure with the organization. TRANSACTIONS Twins placed Miguel Sano on paternity list and recalled Edgar Garcia from Triple-A Nick Vincent cleared waivers and was assigned to Triple-A SAINTS SENTINEL St. Paul 7, Iowa 4 Box Score Saint Paul was a hot ticket tonight as both Byron Buxton and Joe Ryan were in the starting lineup. The former was kicking off a rehab assignment while the latter was making his organizational debut after being acquired in the Nelson Cruz deal while pitching in the Olympics. Returning from Tokyo and his efforts with Team USA, Ryan was every bit as impressive as you could’ve hoped. He worked four innings allowing just a single run on a solo shot, but struck out the first six batters he saw, and nine in total. Ryan Mason also looked great in relief of the Saints starter going 2 1/3 innings giving up a single hit and punching out five. The scoring started for the Saints when Byron Buxton drove in Jose Miranda on a sacrifice fly (that replay showed should have been a double). Iowa walked six batters in the first frame, so opportunities were plentiful. Jimmy Kerrigan plated Trevor Larnach on a single before a bases-loaded walk to Ben Rortvedt scored Tomas Telis. Drew Stankiewicz then walked scoring Mark Contreras, and Miranda singled in both Kerrigan and Rortvedt on his first hit. After Iowa's run scored in the 4th, Ryan Mason came on to slam the door. He picked up his first Triple-A win working 2 1/3 innings and allowing just a single hit and striking out five. Chris Nunn also extended his scoreless streak with another 1 1/3 innings worked without a run. Jimmy Kerrigan drove in Larnach in the 7th inning to match a Cubs run from the fourth frame, and Iowa did make things interesting with three in the 9th, but ultimately St. Paul held on. Kerrigan and Drew Maggi were the only Saints with two hits tonight. WIND SURGE WISDOM Wichita 6, Springfield 4 Box Score Blossoming Twins prospect Cole Sands took the ball tonight for the Wind Surge, but he was chased after just 1 1/3 innings of work. He allowed two runs, one earned, on three hits and two walks while striking out one. Sands needed 39 pitches to record his four outs tonight. After trailing 2-0 through two innings, Wichita picked up their starter. Spencer Steer singled to drive in Austin Martin, and Trey Cabbage plated Roy Morales on a 3rd inning single of his own. The score wouldn't hold with Springfield adding a third run in the bottom half of the inning, but Aaron Whitefield singled in the 4th inning to score Andrew Bechtold and knot things at three. Getting behind again in the 4th, Wichita took the lead for good in the 5th. Cabbage reached on a throwing error that scored B.J. Boyd before Leobaldo Cabrera drove in Morales with a sacrifice fly. In the 7th inning, Cabrera hit his seventh longball of the year and gave the good guys two runs worth of breathing room. Jordan Gore continues to be great on the bump and worked 2 1/3 innings to close this one out. Morales had a three-hit night while Whitefield picked up two of his own. KERNELS NUGGETS Cedar Rapids 3, Wisconsin 1 Box Score The Kernels sent Sawyer Gipson-Long to the bump tonight, and he was great over six strong innings. He allowed just a single, unearned run on three hits and gave up one free pass. He did punch out eight batters on the evening and dropped his ERA to 3.27 since joining the Kernels. Michael Helman opened the scoring with a solo shot in the 3rd; his 13th home run of the season. After the Timber Rattlers answered in the 4th, Cedar Rapids went back to work. Wander Javier drove in Yunior Severino with a 5th inning single, and Helman lifted his second solo shot of the game in the 6th to make it 3-1. That’s where this one would end with Zach Featherstone (2.0 IP, 4 K) and Melvi Acosta (1.0 IP 1 K, SV) both providing hitless relief efforts. Helman, Javier, and Max Smith all recorded two-hit nights for the Kernels. MUSSEL MATTERS Dunedin 5, Fort Myers 4 (F/10) Box Score Taking the ball for Fort Myers tonight was Sean Mooney. He worked 3 2/3 innings and allowed just a single run on three hits and two walks. He punched out seven and his ERA now sits at a miniscule 1.08 on the campaign. Getting behind in the first, the Mighty Mussels evened things up on an Alerick Soularie single that scored Justin Washington. Keoni Cavaco then put a run on the board when Willie Joe Garry to score on his sacrifice fly in the 5th. Trailing again in the 7th, it was Cavaco who knotted things at three. A second sacrifice fly plated Justin Washington before Aaron Sabato left the yard for his 11th homer of the season. After recording the first out in the bottom of the 9th, Carlos Suniaga gave up a base runner who then came around on the inning’s second single. Tying the game at four. This one was headed to the 10th. With Fort Myers coming up short in the top half of extras, Dunedin took advantage with their turn and walked off the Mighty Mussels in the bottom half. 2021 draftee Patrick Winkel had two hits on the evening while Washington added three of his own. COMPLEX CHRONICLES FCL Twins 7, FCL Red Sox 2 Box Score Erasmo Moreno was on the bump for this one and provided four strong innings of work. He allowed just one run on two hits while striking out two and walking one. Malik Barrington, recently signed as an undrafted free agent from Albany State University, made his professional debut and picked up the save. He worked three innings and struck out six allowing just a single hit. The Twins took the lead in the third inning after getting down by one run. 2020 draft pick Kala’i Rosario hit his third homer of the year, a two-run shot, that also plated Zander Wiel. After giving up the lead in the 5th, and 6th inning Wander Valdez solo shot put the Twins back up by a run. Rosario was back at it again in the 7th inning as his seventh double scored another run and pushed the lead to 4-2. Two wild pitches in the 8th allowed Valdez and Argenis Jimenez to score before a Luis Gomez double plated Noah Cardenas to push the final tally out to 7-2. TWINS DAILY MINOR LEAGUE PLAYERS OF THE DAY Pitcher of the Day- Joe Ryan (St. Paul) - 4.0 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 9 K Hitter of the Day- Michael Helman (Cedar Rapids) - 2-5, 2 R, 2 RBI, 2 HR(14) PROSPECT SUMMARY Our most recent (post deadline and draft) prospect rankings are up! Check them out here. #1 - Royce Lewis (rehab) - Injured List (ACL) #2 - Austin Martin (Wichita) - 1-3, R, 2 BB, K #3 - Jordan Balazovic (Wichita) - Did not pitch #4 - Simeon Woods Richardson (Wichita) - Did not pitch #5 - Jhoan Duran (St. Paul) - Injured List (elbow strain) #6 - Jose Miranda (St. Paul) - 1-4, R, 2 RBI, BB, K #7 - Joe Ryan (St. Paul) - 4.0 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 9 K #8 - Matt Canterino (Cedar Rapids) - Did not pitch #9 - Chase Petty (Complex) - Did not pitch #10 - Keoni Cavaco (Fort Myers) - 1-3, 2 RBI, K #11 - Josh Winder (St. Paul) - Injured List (shoulder) #12 - Matt Wallner (Cedar Rapids) - 1-3, 2B, B, K #13 - Gilberto Celestino (St. Paul) - 0-1, K #14 - Drew Strotman (St. Paul) - Did not pitch #15 - Noah Miller (Complex) - Did not play #16 - Brent Rooker (Minnesota) - Did not play #17 - Blayne Enlow (Cedar Rapids) - Out for season (Tommy John surgery) #18 - Misael Urbina (Fort Myers) - 0-3, BB, K #19 - Cole Sands (Wichita) - 1.1 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 1 K #20 - Spencer Steer (Wichita) - 1-4, RBI, K SATURDAY’S PROBABLE STARTERS Iowa @ St. Paul (7:05PM CST) – TBD Wichita @ Springfield (6:05PM CST) – RHP Jordan Balazovic (4-2, 3.74 ERA) Wisconsin @ Cedar Rapids (6:35PM CST) – RHP Cody Laweryson (1-3, 5.06 ERA) Fort Myers @ Dunedin (5:30PM CST) – TBD View full article

From that very first moment when Luis Arraez stepped in against Edwin Diaz and owned the batter’s box, something seemed different. Now more than 200 games into his big-league career, the narrative hasn’t changed. Never a top prospect or one worthy of national attention, Arraez has long gone about his business quietly. He put up a .331 average across more than 300 minor league games, and the Venezuelan has continued to replicate that success at the Major League level. He’s a second baseman by trade, but not in the same vein that Minnesota has seen in recent seasons. He’s not a great defender, but it matters a whole lot less when the stick keeps him producing. Ever since Jorge Polanco moved off of shortstop for the Twins and Josh Donaldson took over at the hot corner, Rocco Baldelli has needed to get creative in deploying his best batting average hitter. Arraez has adapted to playing a utility role, which has included time in the outfield and given some additional rest for a balky knee issue. Playing multiple positions has allowed for offensive flexibility, and really, that’s why he’s here in the first place. To date Luis Arraez owns a .326/.388/.421 career slash line. The power production will likely never trend towards a .500 slugging mark, but it’s that average that has Twins fans dreaming of two All-Time greats. Rod Carew is a legend among these parts, and the late Tony Gwynn was one of the best pure hitters ever to play the game. Between the two of them, both Hall of Famers, there’s a total of 15 batting titles. Minnesota hasn’t had a player accomplish that feat since future Hall of Famer Joe Mauer did so in 2009. Dreaming on Arraez with a career trajectory like that of Carew or Gwynn is probably far-fetched, but expecting similar offensive accomplishments is far from hyperbole. Right now, Arraez is just 24-years-old. Carew debuted at 21, while Gwynn showed up at 22. In his first three big-league seasons, the former owned a .299 average, while the latter put up a .329 mark. Both captured their first batting crown in year three. Right now, Arraez doesn’t have the plate appearances to qualify for the award, but he trails only the Astros Michael Brantley (.325) in the American League. Neither Carew nor Gwynn would win their second award for another three seasons but then did pull off a run of multiple years in a row. Hoping that Arraez takes crowns year over year before grabbing his first is putting the cart before the horse, but it’s clear the recipe is there. Carew had virtually the same strikeout to walk tallies, while Gwynn loaded up on free passes and went back to the dugout just over half as often. Minnesota’s two-bagger owns the same on-base percentage as the Padres legend, and the parallels run deep between this threesome. If we can separate career expectations from production viewed at the moment in time, it’s fun to see just how closely this trio is related. There’s a lot of career left for Luis Arraez, and as long as the knee issues subside or stay at bay, there’s plenty of reason to believe that one thing he’ll always do is hit for average. Maybe Minnesota wasn’t banking on him working out like this, but he’s made his mark and established it as truth. This is the type of guy you describe as rolling out of bed and being ready to hit. He’ll continue to put up the numbers in a Twins uniform, and one can only hope that there’s a shoulder full of batting titles at rest when it’s all said and done. Make no mistake about it, comparing Arraez to the best average hitters of All-Time is fairer than you may think. He’s got the goods, and they keep on coming. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email View full article

The first few seasons of Tyler Duffey in a Minnesota Twins uniform were not good. The former Rice closer had an undefined role and owned a 5.46 ERA across his first 287 innings. Then it happened, he became one of the best relievers in baseball. But, where did he go? The Twins have long been working to develop their own internal pitching pipeline. Finding relievers is typically an easier venture given the ability to convert failed starters. Taylor Rogers has become one of the best closers and lefties in baseball, but he was joined by the likes of Trevor May and Tyler Duffey. The past two seasons saw Duffey post a 2.31 ERA in more than 80 innings while punching out 12.5 per nine and walking just 2.2 per nine. Fast forward to 2021. This season the starting rotation has not been good.and unfortunately neither has the bullpen. Duffey owns a fine 3.63 ERA but that’s backed by a 4.10 FIP and lackluster peripherals including a 7.7 K/9 and 5.0 BB/9. His strikeout rate has dropped from 33% the past two seasons down to a dismal 19%. Fortunately for Duffey, the stuff hasn’t resulted in more damage. The batted ball profile remains largely unchanged, and he’s not giving up an additional amount of hard contact. His velocity has held steady at 92 mph, which is down from 2019, but not the worrisome mark that appeared in Spring Training. The largest issue for Duffey is that he’s no longer forcing batters to play into his hands. As a fastball and curveball pitcher, he thrived off setting batters up for a bender they simply couldn’t touch. This season he’s generating just a 27.7% chase rate which is down 13% from 2020, and 5% below his career average. He’s also halved his whiff rate going from 16% a year ago to just 8% this season. The stuff isn’t generating any desire to expand the zone, and isn’t sharp enough to compile swings and misses. Derek Falvey decided to pull the plug on Jose Berrios being extended by the Minnesota Twins and flipped him before the trade deadline. For a team needing pitching help, that signifies a belief in internal development and a desire to supplement externally. Whether in the rotation or the bullpen, efforts will need to come from holdovers. Duffey will again be relatively cheap in 2022 and enters his final year of team control. If the Minnesota Twins are going to be competitive, they’ll need him to again contribute at a high level in key spots. Seeing Duffey emerge as an arm that took time to develop but transformed into an incredible asset, it’s been difficult to watch him take such a stark step backwards this season. We’ve seen the ability play at the highest level, and Rocco Baldelli will need an opportunity to rely on that sort of production once again. It may take an offseason of going back to the drawing board, but for both Duffey and the Twins, each party needs things to revert back to where they were. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

Brian Dozier had a string of seasons for the Minnesota Twins where it was arguable that he was the best second basemen in baseball. That torch has now been passed, and with two options in the mix, it may be one of the strongest roles Minnesota has had in quite some time. From 2013-2018 Brian Dozier played in nearly 900 games and blasted 161 homers for the Twins as their primary second basemen. He took time to settle into the role and changed his approach at the plate, but became an All-Star in 2015 and earned top-15 votes each of the next two seasons. In 2016-17 Dozier combined to hit 76 dingers with an .871 OPS. For a position often seen as an afterthought in the infield, he’d become a beacon of strength. Fast-forward to where we are now, and the Twins have successfully passed the torch to a new pair of talents. Signed to an extension in 2019, Jorge Polanco is potentially under team control through the 2025 season. He dealt with an ankle injury that changed his abilities drastically, but now with a clean bill of health, he looks like one of the best in baseball at the position. Since June 1 this season, Polanco owns a .926 OPS. He was a first-time All-Star in 2019 and has posted an .806 OPS over the past three seasons, even with the dismal 2020 factored in. There were always legitimate concerns regarding Polanco’s range and arm at shortstop. It was a position he had played often, but one he was ultimately miscast in. Sliding over to second base full time this season, Twins coaches talked up the fact that not only would his bat play, but his glove may find gold there. It’s safe to say the experiment has been wildly successful, and the return to offensive prowess is a welcomed shot in the arm. Recently turning 28-years-old, it’s fair to assume Polanco’s best seasons are still ahead of him, and for a Twins team looking to rebound, that’s a great thing to dream on. Then there’s the opposite but an equally successful type of player at second base for the Twins. Luis Arraez may be the second coming of Rod Carew, and he’s here to challenge for a batting title on an annual basis. Nagging knee injuries have kept him off the field at times, but the bat has remained intact when he’s out there. A .317 average this season marks a career-low, but it’s continued to rise, and the .325 mark across his first 205 big-league games is nothing to scoff at. Arraez will never play with the power that either Dozier or Polanco has, and he’s more Dozier (Gold Glove’s are offensive awards sometimes) than Polanco with the leather, but calling second his primary home helps to push this narrative. Luis has done well for himself by establishing utility around the diamond, but make no mistake that the pipeline Minnesota has pushed here is impressive. Add in that Nick Gordon is beginning to realize some of his potential in the big leagues, a converted shortstop moving to the first base side, and this situation continues to be worth monitoring. Spencer Steer is another name down on the farm that’s pushing his way towards the top and watching the Twins develop these athletes is exciting. Second base is often considered the fallback for a shortstop with a lackluster arm. Be that what it may, but Minnesota isn’t simply throwing out good defenders that have little other tools at the position. Rocco Baldelli has employed lineups that can do damage, and even before the current skipper got here, second base has become an area of strength in the system. Maybe Jorge Polanco pushes for the best in baseball title down the line, but even if he doesn’t, he’s currently headlining an impressive position group within this organization. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email View full article

Clearly? I mean, I'm not sure that's fair when they just paid Kepler, Polanco, and Sano before hitting FA. I wanted Berrios and Buxton extended, however, if they're going to supplement the pre-arb pitchers with FA then getting an absolute haul from the Blue Jays was the right way to go.

I couldn't disagree more with this. His issue has never been his weight. It's always been about his work ethic. His weight was a byproduct of a lack of work ethic, and him being trim had to do with a heightened level of working out. They go hand in hand.

This is also my hope. Having Bailey Ober, or Dobnak even, for 2021 and beyond gives them opportunities to target Stroman, Gausman, etc for the coming years. They were wrong in targeting a 4/5 rather than another three this season, but the more pre-arb hits they have, the better the group as a whole is.

This is exactly the point. They've developed pitchers with less likelihood of success and are now seeing results from them. The infrastructure necessary to develop pitchers required a complete overhaul. It's got guys like Duran, Balazovic, Winder, Canterino, and Sands looking like they could be real contributors. You'd hope those guys turn into #3's or better. None of it is ever going to be quick. You don't draft Chase Petty thinking he'll be here in a year or two. You're confident because the Ober's and Jax's of the system have hit BECAUSE of what you've put in place. Developing pitching is a numbers game.

In 2021 the Minnesota Twins were supposed to be a good team that would see an influx of top tier prospects helping to supplement a contending roster. That hasn’t happened, but we’re seeing some surprising arms take center stage. Royce Lewis didn’t get off the ground this year after missing a traditional minor league season in 2020. We haven’t seen (and likely won’t) Jhoan Duran or Jordan Balazovic to this point. Although Alex Kirilloff and Trevor Larnach have both made their debuts, it’s been pitching where Minnesota has missed most often in 2021. Despite the poor performance, we have seen a trio of potentially overlooked arms brandish their stuff. Bailey Ober Realistically the arm with the highest upside of this group, Ober was a 12th round pick in 2017. He’s 26-years-old and owns a 4.53 ERA through his first 13 big league starts. That number drops to 4.19 if you throw out the clunker in his debut, and it’s an even better 3.55 across his last seven starts. He recently beat both the Houston Astros and Chicago White Sox, and has tallied a 9.7 K/9 while owning just a 2.7 BB/9. The fastball velocity has averaged 92.6 mph, but when it’s coming from a guy standing 6’9” it’s going to get on you with incredible quickness. While Ober is getting ground balls just 33% of the time, he’s allowing hard hit balls only 37.8% of the time. He has generated a respectable 10.5% whiff rate, and owns a 28.3% CSW (called and swinging strike percentage). This wasn’t a guy ever destined to be a top prospect, and he’s hardly cracked an upper half of any organizational prospect list. That said, it’s never been a concern that the stuff hasn’t played. Ober dominated during his time in the minors with a 2.41 ERA and 11.1 K/9. The caveat is that it came in under 200 innings across four seasons. Injuries remain his chief bugaboo and he’s quickly approaching a new career high in innings pitched. For a team needing rotation help though, Ober’s emergence in 2021 should garner him serious consideration for an Opening Day roster spot next spring. Griffin Jax Taken in the 3rd round of the 2016 draft, Jax made his debut this season at 26-years-old. He went through a gambit of hoops to get here, first and foremost working around his commitment to the Air Force. Another guy that has never been considered highly when it comes to prospect status, Jax has succeeded at each level and always seemed “safe.” I opined that it seemed shocking no big league team wanted to take a chance on him as a Rule 5 option, but it’s great that he’s still with the Twins. Although the current 5.45 ERA is hardly anything to write home about, his 38 innings of work have been punctuated by the last four starts. Across those 20 1/3 innings he owns a 2.66 ERA and .153 batting average against. Those outings feature two tilts with the White Sox, and one against Houston; both of which are high-powered offenses. Jax isn’t a fireballer or big strikeout pitcher, but there’s also nothing he does particularly poorly. It’d be a long-shot to assume that Minnesota has a top half of the rotation arm here, but they’ve once again produced something of substance when it comes to rotation help and pitching depth. Jax hasn’t had the run needed to cement the belief that he’ll stick, but the track record and recent results suggest that he’s more than just a fleeting name during an otherwise lost season. Charlie Barnes Minnesota took Barnes out of Clemson in the 4th round of the 2017 draft. He’s the youngest of this group, not yet having reached his 26th birthday. He’s also seen the least amount of opportunity at the big league level, but it seems more could be in front of him down the stretch. Posting strong ERA numbers during his first two seasons of professional baseball, Barnes made it to Triple-A in year three at 23-years-old. In 2021 he forced his opportunity with the Twins by turning into a solid string of performances with the St. Paul Saints. Barnes doesn’t strike a ton of batters out, with just a 7.7 K/9 in the minors, but he’s done a decent job of limiting free passes and has been stingy with the home run ball. More of a soft-tosser, the lefty will need to miss additional bats as he looks for a lengthened opportunity to stick. Easily the most suspect arm in terms of both tools and production from this trio, Barnes has earned the role he’s currently in. There will need to be further advancement, but Minnesota pushing another fringe prospect to the big leagues is a win. His big-league debut against the Detroit Tigers went well, and despite the blow up against Cincinnati, he rebounded somewhat against a much tougher White Sox club. There’s more work to be done here, but this is a good foundation. The real takeaway here is that you can never have enough arms, and development isn't solely put in place for the top prospects. Minnesota has stockpiled pitching talent, and while it has taken time to bear fruit, the infrastructure implemented by Derek Falvey is beginning to pay off. We can only hope to see that in the coming years with more success stories like these, and realization of top tier talent as well. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email View full article

Tonight was the night of the longball on the farm. Across multiple levels prospects went deep time and time again. Opposing pitchers were feasted on, and there's no denying everyone digs the dinger. TRANSACTIONS The Wichita Wind Surge removed Simeon Woods-Richardson from the Temporary Inactive List as he returned from Team USA action. SAINTS SENTINEL St. Paul 11, Indianapolis 9 Box Score Making his third start since coming to the Twins organization, Drew Strotman was on the bump for the Saints tonight. He worked six innings allowing five runs on six hits. He did strike out seven while walking just two. Behind 2-0 after one, Keon Broxton put the Saints on the board with their first run on a sacrifice fly, scoring Drew Maggi. Trailing 4-1 in the 4th inning, Jimmy Kerrigan brought St. Paul back within one launching his 14th home run of the year, this one a two-run shot, scoring Maggi once again. St. Paul took their first lead of the game in the 5th inning. A Nick Gordon double play allowed David Banuelos to score, and a Gilberto Celestino two-out double drove in Tomas Telis and moved the tally to 5-4 good guys. Kerrigan then homered in the 6th inning, his second of the night, and St. Paul doubled their lead. Unfortunately the 6th inning also saw Indianapolis take things over against lights out Saints reliever, Jovani Moran. Telis quickly bailed out the stud pen arm though, as a 7th inning double scored Gordon and drew things back even at 7. This one went to extras and things continued to be bonkers. The Saints scored two in the top half of the 10th on a Telis single and a Kerrigan ground out, but Indianapolis answered with two of their own in the bottom half. Needing to score in the 11th with hopes of a victory, St. Paul got heroics from none other than the man himself, Jose Miranda. Minnesota’s most prolific offensive prospect in 2021 blasted a two-run homer to give the Saints an 11-9 victory. Multi-hit efforts in this one came from Miranda, Telis, and Kerrigan. WIND SURGE WISDOM Wichita 10, Tulsa 5 Box Score Bryan Sammons was tonight’s starter for the Wind Surge, and he was nails. Going five strong, he allowed just a single hit and one walk while punching out five batters. It was nothing short of dominant in a start where offensive run support was in excess supply. Wichita kicked things off in a big way during the first inning. Roy Morales hit his first homer of the season. He was followed by dingers from Spencer Steer (10th with Wind Surge, 20th overall) and Jermaine Palacios (17). Before the first three outs were recorded, the Wind Surge led 3-0. B.J. Boyd then got into the act with his ninth dinger, a solo shot in the third inning, and followed it up with a three-run blast in the 4th inning. Allowing Tulsa to come back in the 7th inning, Wichita's lead was decreased to just three at 8-5 entering the 8th inning. In the 9th though, they got some breathing room. Newly-acquired Austin Martin hit his first home run for the Twins organization, and Trey Cabbage went yard for his 11th home with the Wind Surge (20th overall). With the lead back up to five runs, the Wind Surge slammed the door and put a bow on this one. Boyd, Morales, Cabbage, and Palacios all had two-hit efforts for the Wind Surge tonight. KERNELS NUGGETS Cedar Rapids 5, Peoria 4 Box Score Ben Gross got the call tonight for Cedar Rapids, and he was nothing short of amazing. Going six innings, he allowed just two runs on six hits, he punched out a whopping 13 batters while walking just one. Cedar Rapids struck first as Edouard Julien blasted a home run on a 3-0 pitch in the 3rd for his eighth homer since joining the Kernels. Jeferson Morales then singled in Yunior Severino and Matt Wallner to put the Kernels ahead 3-0. After giving two runs back in the 4th inning, Cedar Rapids had another answer. Seth Gray hit his eighth homer to make it 4-2, and Max Smith singled in Wander Javier extending the lead to 5-2 after five innings. Things got tight late with Peoria plating two in the 8th, but Zach Featherstone was able to slam the door and record his eighth save of the season. Both Gray and Morales had two hits on the evening. MUSSEL MATTERS Bradenton 8, Fort Myers 2 Box Score Dealing with some errant command tonight, Landon Leach gave up three runs without allowing a hit for the Mighty Mussels. The three walks and five hit batters (Yes, five!) burned him, but he did battle for two strikeouts on the evening. Fort Myers jumped out to an early lead on the scorching bat of Aaron Sabato. His first inning dinger was his ninth of the season and gave the Mighty Mussels a 1-0 lead. They trailed 5-1 entering the 8th before Sabato plated Misael Urbina while grounding into a double play. Bradenton then added another three runs in the bottom of the 8th and the deficit grew to six. The Mussels scattered four hits on the evening, but no one recorded more than one. Sabato continues to swing a hot stick, and he’s pushed the OPS to .711 despite a .191 average on the year. COMPLEX CHRONICLES No Game Scheduled TWINS DAILY MINOR LEAGUE PLAYERS OF THE DAY Pitcher of the Day - Ben Gross (Cedar Rapids) - 6.0 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 13 K Hitter of the Day - Jimmy Kerrigan (St. Paul) - 3-5, 2 R, 4 RBI, 2 HR(15) PROSPECT SUMMARY Take note that we have finished our midseason update, so there is a new list! Here is a look at how the Twins Daily Midseason Top 20 Twins Prospects performed: #1 - Royce Lewis (rehab) - Out for season (torn ACL) #2 - Jhoan Duran (St. Paul) - Injured List (elbow strain) #3 - Jordan Balazovic (Wichita) - Did not pitch #4 - Matt Canterino (Cedar Rapids) - Injured List (right elbow strain) #5 - Jose Miranda (St. Paul) - 2-5, R, 2 RBI, BB, K, HR(10) #6 - Keoni Cavaco (Fort Myers) - 1-4, K #7 - Gilberto Celestino (St. Paul) - 1-4, RBI, BB, 2 K #8 - Josh Winder (St. Paul) - Injured List (shoulder impingement) #9 - Aaron Sabato (Fort Myers) - 1-4, R, RBI, HR(9), K #10 - Matt Wallner (Cedar Rapids) - 1-4, RBI, BB, 2 K #11 - Blayne Enlow (Cedar Rapids) - Out for season (Tommy John surgery) #12 - Bailey Ober (Minnesota) - 5.1 IP, 6 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 6 K #13 - Cole Sands (Wichita) - Did not pitch #14 - Brent Rooker (Minnesota) - 0-4, 4 K #15 - Misael Urbina (Fort Myers) - 0-4, R, K #16 - Spencer Steer (Wichita) - #17 - Wander Javier (Cedar Rapids) - 1-5, R, 2 K #18 - Alerick Soularie (Complex) - No game #19 - Edwar Colina (rehab) - Injured List (elbow) #20 - Chris Vallimont (Wichita) - Did not pitch THURSDAY’S PROBABLE STARTERS St. Paul @ Indianapolis (6:05PM CST) - RHP Chandler Shepherd (5-5, 5.88 ERA) Wichita @ Tulsa (7:05PM CST) - RHP Chris Vallimont (4-4, 4.99 ERA) Cedar Rapids @ Peoria (6:35PM CST) - RHP Louie Varland (2-0, 0.83 ERA) Fort Myers @ Bradenton (5:05PM CST) - RHP Casey Legumina (2-1, 5.31 ERA) Please feel free to ask questions and discuss Wednesday’s games! 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Early on this season Miguel Sano might have been the biggest mess he’s even been during his big league career. There was an inability to time a fastball, and he was a detriment to the Twins lineup. That has changed, and he’s back to being who he’s always been. Rewind to the Twins slog through April and May to find a slumping Miguel Sano. The team was bad, and Sano owned a .675 OPS at that point. His playing time was reduced as he was splitting reps with Alex Kirilloff at first base. Eventually he’d begin to ride the pine even more often, and there was clamoring from fans to DFA him and pass him down to the St. Paul Saints. Fast forward to where we are now. Sano isn’t having some sort of revolutionary resurgence, but since June 4 he’s posted an .815 OPS with 22 extra-base hits (including nine home runs) in 47 games. The batting average is respectable (.256) for a power hitter, and while the on-base percentage isn’t where he’d like it (.321) the number is passable. All season long the problem has been timing more than anything else. His strikeout rate is 35.6%, or below his career average, and substantially below the 43.9% he posted in 2020. Sano’s hard hit rate is above his career average, and basically in line with some of his best seasons. Unfortunately, his barrel rate is at a three-year low, and that again is indicative of point of contact. Sano has dropped his whiff rate back to 2019 levels however, and his CSW% is right below his career norm. What we’re seeing is the same player that Minnesota paid $30 million over three years for. The problem is that the peaks and valleys have been more pronounced, but at this point you’d have hoped the organization had a better idea as to the player they have. Sano is a former top prospect, but not in the vein of a Guerrero Jr. or even Buxton. Miguel’s tools have always been plus-plus power and a plus-plus arm. Yes, he was a young Dominican shortstop, but it quickly became apparent he wouldn’t stick there. He’s passable at third base, but the frame has always profiled better at first base, a position he’s actually adequate at. The .923 OPS Sano posted in 2019 is very likely a mirage given his tendency to be inconsistent. His .859 OPS as an All-Star in 2017 makes a lot more sense. The average will always lag behind, but he actually commands the zone well and his hard contact output will always trend towards a slugging outcome. Given the run, he’s a good bet for 25-30 homers a year, and as a guy you can put in the bottom half of a lineup, that seems like a decent asset. It’s very clear that Miguel Sano isn’t a foundational cornerstone. He can absolutely be worth what the Twins front office decided to pay him though. Committing to him on a regular basis rather than second guessing what he is through slumps doesn’t make a ton of sense. He’s the type of player that isn’t going to benefit from extended time off. Not all prospects pan out the same way, and while this isn’t the 99th percentile of where you’d like development to be, that might not be the worst thing any ways. If Sano was the best version of himself, paying him $30 million might not have happened in order to send him elsewhere for another hopeful return. For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz