Alex

I’d like to see the bullpen improved as well, but in their three losses, the offense scored, 2, 3, and 4 runs. A bit more run support (or fielding) in two of those games and the equation changes. You’re not going to win a lot of games scoring 4 or fewer runs.

Not anymore.

I don't really like the Gomez/Hicks comparisons. Gomez was 23 his last year with the Twins. Hicks was 23 in the first year he was called up. And even though Gomez was younger and not very good, only his first season at age 21 was as bad as Hicks has been.

If I'm remembering correctly, teams shift the OF left on Mauer and IF to the right. He's waited back hit some soft grounders to the left for singles. I think that's possible, but hitting line drives to different locations would be a far tougher thing and could require a lot of mechanical changes for a hitter like Mauer who really doesn't pull the ball hard very often. At least, that's my thinking since major league pitching is tough to hit even when taking an approach that emphasizes one's strengths. If it were that easy, I think a lot more people could hit better in general.

That's fair, and we can certainly split hairs about what that means. I guess I'd argue that if he's already flagging after playing 28 games in the OF of 36 at this point in the season, that's an issue. He's the best of those three OF, so I'd be surprised if the expectation was for him to DH more than 25% of the time as he's the best fielding corner OF on the roster (and who has the potential bat for it).

1) Dumping Hicks is a bad idea at this point, but he should be in Rochester. (Remember when the Twins talked about "no free rides?" or whatever Hicks is getting one). Problem is, there's not many other options in the majors right now for a CF especially since the organization is hurting for depth. 3) Colabello: I think a guy needs a chance to slump and come out of it. He's shown some power and the Twins need it desperately. -- I'd replace those on the list with Kubel. Dating back to August of 2012, he's been pretty terrible and certainly not good enough for a weak defending corner OF. Though, this might not be possible until Arcia, and maybe Willingham return.

Hmmm, it's an interesting thought, but how could the plan have not been for this much time in the field? Or, at least a good amount? They started the season with the following players on the 25 day roster between corner OF and DH: Willingham, Arcia, Kubel, and Colabello. Even if you put CC on the bench, you still have Hammer Arcia and Kubel, all better suited to DH than play OF. Not sure I see a scenario where Kubel doesn't see a lot of time in the OF, even if Hammer had been healthy.

When I voiced concerns the roster had too many weak defensive outfielders (DH types) and essentially exchanging Kubel for Doumit wasn't a great idea specifically because it cost younger players chances to prove whether or not they belonged, several people responded by saying "The only thing keeping Parmelee out of the majors is Parmelee." I don't think that really holds anymore.

It's nice to see him doing well, but he's a 23 year old at High A, which is behind where you'd like to see him developmentally, even if he continues at this pace. As a point of reference, Florimon has similarly successful seasons at that age in high A.

A very similar article, but focuses on swing rates: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-twins-new-plan-dont-swing/

I'd just point out that a lot of the margins in baseball are thin, including the difference between Florimon's defense and an average SS in terms of runs saved. Accepting and finding those margins on a personnel (player) level and a game by game (stragegy: lineup construction, etc.) level is what makes one team a playoff contender and another a bottom feeder.

I agree with this post far more than your first, though I don't necessarily agree that just because the Twins make a decision means it's the right one. As others pointed out and you point out here, because we don't have another option that is much better there's not a compelling reason not to have him play. But there are a few issues. I think the point about his defensive skillset "coming around only every so often" is not because it's challenging to find fantastic fielders that can play SS but because it's challenging to combine that skillset with a minimum level of hitting that is required to play in the majors, and that minimum level of hitting is often represented by the shortstop position. Even at the most important defensive position, there is a minimum standard for hitting because a glove can only make up for so much poor hitting. Then there's a case that some might make that he's a good, but overrated SS. As an example, he ranks right in the middle of ML shortstops in Fangraphs UZR/150 in 2013. While we could debate the exact accuracy of such statistics, unique talents tend not to rank in the middle.

The limbo line for me is when he hits bad enough that you'd prefer to DH him over the pitcher. The Hicks comparison, while valid from small sample size standpoint doesn't hold up in other ways, like the fact (already mentioned) that he just hasn't hit -- ever. The other reason it's bad is that Hicks was 23 last year and Florimon is 27 this year and this isn't his first exposure to major league pitching (though he doesn't have 1000 plate appearances yet). Is Escobar really that bad defensively? I realize his numbers don't look much better, but he wasn't getting regular at bats and he has a smaller number.

Actually, if Dozier really has this kind of power, he might be a better a candidate for#2 than Joe, and Joe would actually make a great lead off hitter.

I have it on good authority TC Bear's backup outfielder of choice was Alex Presley.

Presley didn't have the power Hicks had but his .336 OBP makes him far more valuable if he can continue to produce that, which may be doubtful and that's why you see the difference in OPS. That's the most concerning aspect of Hicks's struggles is that he never found the ability to even draw walks and he's always had a high number of strikeouts, which we can expect to be higher in the majors. It wasn't good, not really ever, with the exception of facing LHP, but that's the less frequent platoon split, and he's too young to be platooned since you want him to get as many at bats as possible.

We'll see how Kubel hits this season, but he was terrible last year, way worse than Presley.

No, I meant in terms of on the market (IE what we could do with his money, which is really nothing at this point). We don't actually know that Mauer will "not be good enough" in two years. He could still be one of this team's top two or three hitters and not as replaceable as many would like to think, especially if the move to first adds to his longevity. Despite that he might not be worth that contract, he's not as replaceable (or "near enough") as people might think.

Be specific please. Which two players currently available are going to hit better than Mauer or even close? None will hit better against RHP. There may be some that will hit better against LHP, but we actually have options on the team that can do that. Trading him will result in a net loss. We actually have options on the roster that would be available to play 1B and hit from the other side. Trading Mauer continues to make zero sense. 1. There are no players available that will make up for the loss of production in FA, nor multiple players. 2. The Twins still could still sign players if needed/want -- his salary isn't crippling. 3. The Twins aren't going to have need to sign in-house players for some time so they don't need to clear salary immediately.

A lot of people are putting value into stolen bases based on the fact that Florimon stole a grand total of 16. 16! This isn't 30 or more player who never gets caught, though to his credit, he is between 70-75% and was slightly above the break even point so his stolen bases added some value, but frankly, it's minimal. It's one of the most overrated aspects of a player in the modern game despite the fact that there's plenty of research to show that a high success rate is necessary because making an out is so much worse. We could also hypothetically assume that he's going to hit .330 with a .400 OBP, but it's unlikely. Of course, that's a stretch Florimon just doesn't have plate discipline and he got worse as he progressed through the minors -- not better, which has continued (though he's improved slightly from last year), I think it's a very rosy picture to expect his OBP to improve by 40 points.

Yes, but that list shortens up, sometimes dramatically as teams re-sign their own players. It's a bad idea, IMO, to try to project out more than a season. It' also worth noting if the Twins are significantly better, they might not have 1st round protection for that class of FA.

Pretty much exactly what I was going to say. They exceeded my expectations partially because they were so low and they still have a lot of holes.

Using the acronym "FIP" and then saying you're not referring to the statistic is confusing to me. If you have some measurement you are using that shows he was a HOF and not just a very good pitcher, why don't you actually use it rather than vaguely refer to it? I have read the statistics in the thread and others and there are all sorts. How many innings do you want? What stats do you want? I redid the sort for 3K innings which left me with 132 pitchers. Morris is 116th in FIP, 117th in BB/9, 119th in HR/9, though he does come in 29th in K/9. The bottom line is that it doesn't matter what statistic you use, Morris is can not be considered a hall of fame pitcher, unless you're willing to open up the Hall to a lot of other pitchers.

It does? Career ERA: 3.90 Career FIP 3.94 Could you explain how FIP shows him in a better light? He ranks 659th amongst starting pitchers with more than 1000 IP.

I think there's a difference between never having "too much start pitching" and never having "too much good starting pitching." No one was against the Twins acquiring good starting pitching, and hopefully Pelfrey is better and Hughes pitches better at Target Field and/or recognizes his potential. Hopefully the Twins did acquire upgrades that will help them both short and long term and that they are able to transition players that could have higher upside or those they let go aren't missed opportunities.