PSzalapski

A team barely alive Some are saying the Twins should abandon the effort to seriously compete in 2019 and aim to reload for 2020 and 2021, when prospects like Alex Kiriloff and Royce Lewis will be ready to contribute. That's a mistake to me--with a payroll commitment of only about $60 Million, they almost can't afford not to spend some serious cash. I'll lay out what we can learn from 2018 and what the Twins can do not only to compete but to put themselves in position to win the American League Central in 2019, ending this post with my offseason blueprint. First, let's look at the year now past--not quite a debacle, but quite disappointing: 2016 2017 2018 changeActual Wins 59 85 78 -7 They fell off by seven games, which isn't much considering a 26-game improvement came about the year before. Still, everyone was hoping for better. Their Pythagorean wins (the number of wins expected given their runs scored and allowed) were at 79, so there's not much bad luck involved in that number. Where did the Twins' actual decline come from? Let's compare this year's decline to last year's improvement: 2016 2017 2018 changeLuck -7 +2 +1 -1Hitters WAR 17.0 28.7 15.2 -13.5Pitchers WAR 1.8 7.0 12.3 +5.3 So here's the bright side: Twins pitching in two years went from the worst around to now above average. This is an incredible achievement by Falvey and Levine, the coaches, and the players. The Twins have released pitching coach Garvin Alston after one year to enable new manager Rocco Baldelli to hire the person he wants, but judging from the results, one would have to give a hearty thanks to Alston for moving the needle significantly in the right direction for whatever degree of influence he had. Their challenge now is to keep up this level of quality and boost it on the margins. To say that hitting was a disappointment is an understatement. While the lineup didn't totally fall apart, they certainly fell two big steps backwards. Getting just a little better from here isn't going to cut it in the minds of Twins fans or for the front office. More importantly, knowing the specific players who should take the blame leaves me both concerned and hopeful--quite literally, the Twins supposed five best hitters (Sano, Buxton, Morrison, Mauer, and Dozier) all dramatically underperformed. In no universe did fans, writers, pundits, projection systems, Paul Molitor, Thad Lavine, or Derek Falvey think there was any reasonable chance that the five of them would combine to post a cumulative WAR under 1. When you would have been just as well simply benching your five best hitters for all 162 games, there's literally no possible way to overcome that. And yet, the Twins still ended three wins under .500 for the year, a mark far more respectable than what could have happened. So the bad news is that Twins's best players now all have big question marks surrounding them. The good news though: 2018 was certainly a black swan event, the likes of which the Twins offense has never seen nor imagined. No one could have predicted it, and the probability of it happening again is exceedingly small. These players are all better than this, and we should expect this year to be expunged from their memories after they achieve more success going forward. I'll break down the hitters by WAR (technically fWAR, or FanGraph's WAR), focusing on the players that mattered most. I'll list last year's players who have been replaced for comparison's sake, as well. WAR 2017 2018 change15 Hitters 24.9 14.6 -10.5LF Rosario 1.7 3.4 +1.7RF Kepler 2.4 2.6 +0.23B Escobar 1.3 2.4 +1.1SS Polanco 2.1 1.3 -0.82B Dozier 4.4 1.0 -3.41B Mauer 3.4 1.0 -2.4CF Buxton 5.1 -0.4 -5.5C Castro 2.5 -0.2 -2.7DH Vargas=>Morrison 0.3 -0.7 -1.0 3B Sano 2.5 0.0 -2.54O Granite=>Cave 0.3 1.3 +1.0BC Gimenez=>Garver 0.7 1.3 +0.55O Grossman 0.8 0.7 -0.1MI Adrianza 0.9 0.5 -0.4MI Santana=>Forsythe 0.1 0.4 -0.3 Moves that worked Sticking with Rosario in 2017: Rosario had a successful year in 2017, but many were worried that it was more of a fluke--that Rosario would return to a below-league-average hitter, as he was in 2015-2016. Instead, Rosario kept hitting at a high level and simultaneously improved his baserunning and fielding into also above-average territory. If he can maintain these tools, expect an all-star team appearance for Rosario, perhaps even in 2019. Under team control through 2021, the case can also be made that Rosario's trade value will never be higher--what kind of pitching riches could the Twins acquire if they offer Rosario and move Jake Cave into left? Still, the most likely scenario is that the Twins keep playing Rosario every night for a few years, and perhaps they should keep offering him long-term contract extensions till he signs one. Trading Luis Gil for Jake Cave: The Yankees were never going to play Cave in the outfield, so trading him for a low-level hard-throwing prospect was perhaps a good move for them, but it was a great move for the Twins, as Cave contributed more to the team winning than Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton, and Joe Mauer combined in 2018. It seems that Cave can legitimately hit and field, and so the Twins plan on keeping him around. He is perfect as the fourth outfielder for years to come. Before the trade, Zach Granite was struggling and Ryan LaMarre jumped over him to begin the year in the big leagues, but Cave's success led the Twins to trade away LaMarre without fear. Relying on Mitch Garver more than Bobby Wilson or Chris Gimenez: Last year, the Twins were reluctant to trust Garver behind the plate, trying him out as a pinch hitter, DH, and outfielder. That's a problem, because Garver isn't a good enough hitter to be highly valuable at any of those positions--but at catcher, he's a great hitter. This year, Garver caught in over 650 innings, and while his catching metrics are overall slight negative, his strong hitting makes up for it. Good-hitting catchers are hard to find, and the Twins should live with little shortcomings in Garver if he can be a above-average hitter--that is, above-average for a hitter, way above average for a catcher. Moves that bombed Playing through lower-body pain: How many times do the Twins have to get bitten by this to change their emphasis? Logan Morrison (hip), Brian Dozier (knee), Miguel Sano (leg, hamstring) and of course Byron Buxton (toe) all tried to play either through an injury or come back too soon from recovery. The evidence is abundant that hitting suffers immensely when any part of the legs can't be trusted. Playing hurt often means playing to hurt your team, and it should no longer be tolerated, let alone encouraged. Managing Byron Buxton's injuries and swing: Buxton is too good for this to be the result. By the butterfly effect, migraine headaches led to a broken toe, the already-mentioned foolish attempt to return too early, and lots of confusion over his swing mechanics. The new trainers, new manager, and yet-to-be-named new hitting coach will have Buxton's success as perhaps their top individual priority. Failing to trade Dozier before the beginning of the year: The rumor was that, for Dozier to escape to the the Dodgers before the season, the Twins were demanding Jose De Leon and Cody Bellinger in return. The Dodgers, even without the benefit of hindsight, were never going to do that trade. The Twins should have accepted DeLeon and another lesser player as the best deal they could have gotten. It looks especially bad now, as the Twins' "best hitter" was not at all their best hitter anymore--Dozier inexplicably (was it a lingering knee injury?) went from being 25% above average to 10% below average in one year. Needless to say, Dozier was hoping for a hundred-million-dollar or more contract in his first free-agent try, but might now have to settle for a one-year deal and try again next year. On to the starting pitchers: 2017 2018 change6 Starters 7.2 9.7 +2.5Berrios 1.7 3.3 +1.6Gibson 0.2 2.8 +2.6Colon=>Odorizzi 0.1 2.6 +2.5Mejia=>Lynn 0.8 0.8 0.0Santiago=>Romero -0.2 0.7 +0.9Santana 4.6 -0.5 -5.1 Moves that worked Sticking with Berrios and Gibson: It took Berrios a few additional years after his debut to find his footing, but the patience with him is paying off. When you have a pitching prospect like Berrios, it may take some years of struggle before becoming a reliable contributor--Berrios was such all year, without giving the coaches reason to worry or doubt. La Maquina is under team control through 2022, so the Twins will pencil him in as often as possible for the next four years. Gibson's struggle was ongoing for years, but this was the year he put all that behind him and had confidence on the mound for the entire year. I was among those who were ready for the Twins to cut ties with him two years ago, but he has proved me wrong by being the rare pitcher whose age-30 season is better than any year prior. We shouldn't expect Gibson to exceed his 2018 success, but he has certainly earned a rotation spot next year. Trading for Jake Odorizzi: The Twins spent the offseason trying to get Chris Archer. When they couldn't meet the Rays' asking price, they went down a notch and acquired Odorizzi from them in exchange for Jermaine Palacios, who went on to have a poor season in A and AA and seems a long way from ever contributing in the majors. Odorizzi wasn't the near-ace the Twins were hoping for, but at a notch below, he was a much better contributor than Bartolo Colon last year. The Twins should not hesitate to make such a routine move to plug a hole again, as adding two or three wins in exchange for a marginal prospect is a bargain no matter which way you look at it. By the way, Archer struggled on the year and was traded mid-season for a lesser return to the Pirates, so perhaps it all worked out well for the Twins. Moves that bombed Signing Lance Lynn and thus blocking Adalberto Mejia: I hesitate to call this a big mistake--Lance Lynn's contract was limited and the Twins recognized early enough that he wasn't the pitcher they thought they were getting, skipping occasional starts and pulling him early. Still, the Twins would have been better off trusting Meijia, Romero, or Gonsalves to take Lynn's 20 starts. The results would likely have been no worse, and furthermore perhaps one of those three would be a clear asset for the major league team in 2018. Instead, the Twins and Twins fans alike still are unsure of these three not-so-young-anymore pitchers and their role going forward. We can't second-guess the Lynn signing too much, as it was cheap and easy, and this was likely just a down year for Lynn, who should be effective for the Yankees or some other team for years to come. And the bullpen: 2017 2018 change11 Relievers 2.4 2.4 0.0Rogers 0.4 1.9 +0.8Pressly -0.2 0.8 +1.0 Gee=>Duke 0.6 0.8 +0.2Kintzler=>Rodney 1.1 0.5 -0.6Breslow=>Moya -0.1 0.1 +0.2Hildenberger 0.8 0.0 -0.8Belisle 0.0 -0.2 -0.2Duffey -0.4 -0.2 +0.2 Boshers=>Reed -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 Tonkin=>Magill -0.2 -0.3 -0.1Busenitz 0.1 -0.8 -0.9 Moves that worked Making Taylor Rogers more than a LOOGY: Being left-handed is certainly a blessing for most pitchers, but sometimes they get trapped into a specialty role. Instead, Molitor used Rogers often against lefties and righties alike, and he shined in the process, boasting more than a strikeout per inning and nearly five for every walk, and giving up the bare minimum of home runs you could ever expect. I doubt Rogers will ever be this good again, but you can hope he'll come close. He's definitely the kind of pitcher the Twins are happy to have for at least four more years in his prime. Signing Zach Duke and Fernando Rodney: Duke didn't make himself into a top-notch reliever, but his 52 innings pitched were solidly above-average for a team that struggled to find strength in their bullpen. Rodney contributed just as well, too. Again, signing players like these (and then trading them away if the season becomes lost) should be routine moves that happen every year alongside any bigger moves. These players are often available each year, and the Twins' scouts will prove themselves if this kind of signing usually works out as it did with Duke and Rodney. Building up Pressly and trading him for value: Ryan Pressly got some press after the Twins traded him for Jorge Alcala and Gilberto Celestino, saying that the Astros recognized that he needed to change his mix of pitches simply to throw his superior breaking ball more often. It should not be overlooked that the Twins helped Pressly develop very well, and any tweaks the Astros have done are because they stand on the proverbial shoulders of giants. Not signing a top-quality reliever: The Twins could have convinced themselves that Wade Davis or Greg Holland were worth big contracts. If they had done so, we'd probably now be lamenting how much we are on the hook. This isn't to say that the Twins shouldn't sign a more expensive reliever now, but only that in 2018 the options were poor and they were wise to avoid making a high-risk, low-reward mistake. Moves that bombed Leaning on Trevor Hildenberger: One of the biggest disappointments of the year was the failure of Hildenberger to step up as the Twins' next elite reliever. Did Molitor call on him too often--having him pitch in nearly half of the Twins' games? Did he wear down early and never recover? Was he thrust into a high-leverage role too soon in his career? Or is he just an average pitcher, and the Twins should not have given so much credence to his late 2017 performance? Hildenberger might be an area of focus for the new pitching staff. They have a lot of plates to spin in order to improve this bullpen, and Hildenberger might be the biggest and wobbliest. Bringing back Belisle: This one's a puzzler to me: Matt Belisle was not a good pitcher in 2017 and got worse in 2018; why did the Twins sign him mid-season? The only thing I can think of is that the Twins wanted his leadership and cameraderie in the bullpen--to have him more as a player-coach and a mop-up pitcher rather than a true bullpen building block. Still, they must have realized that in August, as the end of July featured two bad Belisle outings that led to one-run losses. Maybe his playing days aren't done, but I surely hope they are done in Minnesota, although I'm open to the idea of hiring him as a minor-league pitching coach. Duffing around the course: Tyler Duffey is just hanging around, not bad enough to be cut but not good enough to help the team win. I suppose he's better than relievers behind him on the depth chart, but I'm hoping the Twins bullpen improves to the point where it will be more obvious that the Twins can move on from Duffey. Mind your own Busenitz: Alan Busenitz has been disappointing to be sure, and part of the problem was in keeping him away from the majors for two months, but he failed to make the most of his 23 appearances in the majors, showing that perhaps he did deserve to be in AAA after all. He'll be in the doghouse again to start 2019, and I have no problem making him earn his way back to the majors again as he's done three times already. Subtraction by Addison: Reed was thought to be one of the top relievers on the free-agent market, and the Twins were able to snag him for only a two-year deal. He turned in very inconsistent performances in the second half, but I don't think this is too big a disappointment, and I'm glad he'll be in Minneapolis next year to bounce back and earn his next big contract. We have the capability... Well, the label "big spenders" is something of an exaggeration, but the Twins have the opportunity to spend more than ever before in longer-term contracts and set themselves up for success in 2019 and in their future. The Twins major-league payroll sits at around $60 million, leaving them $60-80 million to add for 2019 alone to reach even league average, and there's nothing stopping them from spending even more. The same wide-open salary continues in the future. It will be up to Falvey and Levine to spend it wisely, but they can't revert to Terry Ryan-style frugality. Rocco Baldelli will lead that team Their first task is to build out Rocco Baldelli's coaching staff. He should choose a pitching coach that he can trust, but also someone who can usher Twins pitchers into modernity. It seems currently that pitching strategy is changing faster than ever before, and the new pitching coach will need to manage openers, starters, quick hooks, and firemen--and nuture pitchers to throw more breaking balls, keep their velocities up as they age, avoid tipping pitches, prevent injuries, and manage fatigue better than any Twins pitching coach in years past. I have no idea who Baldelli, Falvey, and Levine should choose, but the choice is perhaps more important than ever before. Better than they were before The Twins' hitters have a few holes, and the opportunities for improvement are more obvious than last year. Here's how they should approach this team renovation. Trust the supposed three best hitters: It would be far too hasty and foolish to give up on Sano or Buxton. Eddie Rosario has surpassed them and inspires more confidence for sure, but Sano and Buxton's trade value will never be lower than right now. Don't forget that they are 25 and 24 years old, 3-4 years before their statistically-likely prime. They still have growing and developing to do, and they were too good in the minors and in long stretches in the majors before for 2018's performances to be representative. Grant them a fresh start in the new year and I'm betting that Twins fans will be rewarded. Trust Sano at third base: Good fielding has returned as a emphasis for the Twins, with Kepler, Buxton, and now Rosario helping out in the field, but to those names you can lighly pencil in Miguel Sano, who is just fine at third base, and far more valuable there than at DH. The Twins should keep Sano at third till it is utterly obvious that he shouldn't be playing there, and we seem to be a long way from that. Presuming that the Twins infield will be shifting much more than in 2018, the coaches will have to work out how best to play him--he can't be roaming in short right field like we saw Travis Shaw or Justin Turner do in the playoffs--but there is flexibility here and the coaches can make it work. Sign a good-hitting second baseman: No, don't re-sign Logan Forsythe. The Twins need a very good hitter at second base more than they need a good-fielding shortstop. I'm not sure that Manny Machado is even a good fit nor nearly worth the money. I'd go with Jed Lowrie or Asdrubal Cabrera as free agent signings, but also look for someone arguably better on the trade market, like a one year rental of Scooter Gennett. The Twins have several in-house options for 2020 and beyond, so a one- or two-year commitment here makes a lot of sense. Trade for a real slugging first baseman: There are a few disappointing options at first base on the free agent market, but there's a obvious name that might be gettable in a trade: One year of Paul Goldschmidt. I'd beware a bidding war, but trades for no-doubt mashers are not often regretted. If that doesn't work, a trade for Justin Smoak or Carlos Santana could be arranged, but the Twins should also look at taking on longer contracts if a good deal can be had for Wil Myers or Brandon Belt. But plan A should be Goldschmidt. Sign a designated hitter: Picking up Logan Morrison didn't work out, but it was the right idea. Matt Adams or Lucas Duda could be a relatively inexpensive boost to a lineup that has been missing a go-to DH for years, though I still expect that Willians Astudillo and Tyler Austin will get starts at DH as well as corner infield positions throughout the year. Plan on using Jake Cave often to keep Kepler, Buxton, and Rosario fresh. If any starting outfielder gets a nagging injury, put him on the disabled list without hesitation and keep him there till all are confident he is recovered. Say goodbye to the hall-of-famer, has-beens, and almost-weres: Joe Mauer seems all but retired, and the Twins shouldn't entice him back unless it is for a true bargain on a one-year deal. Grossman, Gimenez, and Belisle should also retire and the Twins shouldn't feel forced to bring them back. Sadly, Danny Duffey doesn't seem to have a way back. I have no problem keeping him in Rochester in case he truly earns it back, but I wouldn't plan on it happening. Better, stronger, faster Improvements to the pitching staff need to emphasize faster fastballs, sharper curve balls, and above all, clear-cut quality. Lance Lynn or others like him should not be an option for this team unless they come even cheaper than last year. Also, the bullpen can't continue to limp along--the Twins are way behind in getting an advantage out of their relievers and it is time to end that. Sign an almost-ace: I can't quite use the term "ace", as a pitcher in the top echelon is nearly impossible to get, but the the Twins need a clear-cut top-notch pitcher, and there's several to choose from. My pick is Nathan Eovaldi. With a 100 mph fastball and a tendency to avoid walks, he will give Twins fans both excitement and winning immediately. Trevor Cahill is another good option, or Patrick Corbin if you want to aim a little higher Stick with what works: Trevor May might become great, we know Rogers and Moya are capable, and I mentioned staying faithful to Addison Reed. This gives the Twins four pitchers they can rely on--maybe not to be the top of the bullpen, but to at least stick around for the year. Bring in expensive talent: I figure the Twins need two new top relievers in 2019, as well as one depth acquisition. Trading for any of these may be an option, but I think the bullpen is the best area to spend the deep pockets the Twins have starting this year. I'd target Jeurys Familia and Kelvin Herrera, and pick up a lefty like Jerry Blevins for good measure. Manage the rest carefully: Hildenberger, Magill, and Busenitz haven't inspired confidence yet, so keeping them in Rochester till needed isn't a bad idea. Make sure they are trusted as true contributors in the majors before trusting them with a roster spot. Of course, we all hope that Hildenberger is very close to earning that trust, but there was much to cause doubt in him in 2018. So here's my 2018 season-long roster, comprised of the 30 most important players, along with somewhat optimistic hoped-for WAR numbers for each. These numbers add up to a bit over 100 wins for the 2019 Twins. Most of these players will not hit these "hope" numbers, but some will, and others will come close, and a few will exceed them enough to make the Twins a contender in 2019. Join me in my optimism; a AL Central title and thus a World Series is within reach. WAR 2017 2018 2019 hope CF Buxton 5.1 -0.4 5.01B Goldschmidt 5.2 5.1 4.53B Sano 2.5 0.0 3.7 LF Rosario 1.7 3.4 3.5 2B Lowrie 3.6 4.9 3.1RF Kepler 2.4 2.6 2.6SS Polanco 2.1 1.3 2.0C Castro 2.5 -0.2 1.5DH Adams 1.2 0.8 1.2 4O Cave 0.3 1.3 1.5CI Astudillo 0.7 1.4BC Garver 0.7 1.3 1.3MI Adrianza 0.9 0.5 1.0CI Austin 0.1 0.4 0.7SP Berrios 1.7 3.3 3.5SP Eovaldi 2.2 3.0 SP Gibson 0.2 2.8 2.6SP Odorizzi 0.1 2.6 2.1SP Pineda 1.1 1.7SP Romero 0.7 0.5RP Rogers 0.4 1.9 1.5RP Familia 0.3 1.8 1.0RP May 0.5 0.8RP Herrera 0.1 0.4 0.5RP Hildenberger 0.8 0.0 0.5RP Reed 0.9 -0.2 0.5RP Moya -0.1 0.1 0.3RP Busenitz 0.1 -0.8 0.3RP Magill -0.3 0.2 TEAM WAR 36.8 28.8 52.0Wins 85 78 100

If they want to have DH be an option for Sano, then they need a good-hitting 3B instead of a DH. That's much harder to find or fill. Do you want to shift Polanco from SS for one season only to shift him again to 2B in 2019, and also call up a SS prospect that isn't quite ready? Or start Escobar at third and hope for the best--1.5 WAR at the most, but possibly worse? I hate these options; instead, keeping Sano at 3B really is a big relief from hardship and pain. I think I'd rather have Sano on the DL to start the season than to have him at DH without hope of returning to the field.

I don't disagree that it is a stretch, but it is a reachable stretch. I do expect both Sano and Buxton to be better than Dozier. I want 6 WAR from Buxton (just a small improvement over 2017 by hitting better all year) and 5 from Sano.

I had a similar take. The bullpen will be drastically different next year even with no signings or trades. http://twinsdaily.com/blog/91/entry-9144-100-wins-in-2018/

What a year! 2016 2017 changeActual Wins 59 85 +26 Improving by 26 games is quite a feat. So how did the 2017 Twins get there? 2016 2017 changeActual Wins 59 85 +26Pythag Wins 66 83 +17Luck -7 +2 +9 Okay, so the actual improvement was more like 17 games. The "Luck" here is shorthand for the difference between their wins and the wins we should have expected given their run totals--in other words, the advantage the Twins had over a team that scores runs in the average distribution. It is a measure of the luck involved in when the runs scored, not in whether the runs scored. Wait, so one-third of the 2017 Twins performance improvement was due to luck? Should we despair that the success is illusory and thus expect the Twins to sink back to mediocrity? Not quite. The 2016 Twins were quite unlucky, so it isn't bad that they changed that. You can't count on the number being much higher than +2 in 2018, but neither should we assume it will certainly be lower. Typical division winners outperform their Pythagorean record, and so the Twins should hope to do so in 2018. That this "luck" number is merely +2 should calm the Twins fans' insecurities; the Royals has a luck number of +8 in falling short of .500, and so Royals fans should acquiesce to their unavoidable rebuild period. So enough about "luck". Where did the Twins' actual improvement in run-scoring and run-preventing achievements come from? 2016 2017 changeLuck -7 +2 +9Hitters WAR 17.0 28.7 +11.7Pitchers WAR 1.8 7.0 +5.2 So three-fourths of the Twins' actual improvement was in their hitters. Let's take a closer look at it. Note that I am evaluating their hitters with hitting, baserunning, and fielding put together. WAR 2016 2017 changeHitters 16.0 24.9 +8.9 CF Buxton 1.9 5.1 +3.2C Suzuki=>Castro 0.4 2.5 +2.13B Sano 0.8 2.5 +1.7SS Polanco 0.6 2.1 +1.51B Mauer 2.3 3.4 +1.1LF Rosario 1.1 1.7 +0.6DH Grossman 0.3 0.8 +0.5RF Kepler 2.1 2.4 +0.32B Dozier 6.5 4.4 -2.1CI Escobar -0.6 1.3 +1.94O Santana=>Granite -1.3 0.3 +1.6BC Centeno=>Gimenez 0.8 0.7 -0.1CI Plouffe=>Vargas 0.4 0.3 -0.1MI Nunez=>Adrianza 1.5 0.9 -0.6 A nine-win improvement from your starting lineup is excellent, and the bench even improved a bit. Do you think that the Twins did nothing last offseason? Looking at the above, I see ten moves the Twins made (or avoided making) that altogether led to this twelve-win improvement. Moves that worked Staying committed to Buxton, Polanco, and Rosario: The Twins stuck with Byron Buxton through a rough May and June. It would have been defensible to have demoted him to work on his hitting in AAA. The Terry Ryan regime might have done just that, but Derek Falvey and Thad Levine stuck with him, most notably because his fielding was not just above average but the best in the league. In the end, Buxton refined his swing and started hitting like his promise always showed. In the same vein, the Twins stayed consistent with Jorge Polanco, who spent the entire year as the starting shortstop. While he didn't have defensive talent to help him along, the confidence in his ability paid off as his hitting skyrocketed in the second half. There was pressure to demote Polanco, but faith in him was paid off well. Similarly, Rosario found a better stroke and contributed more than most thought reasonable to hope for. Replacing Kurt Suzuki with Jason Castro: Passing on extending Suzuki, the Twins figured they could do better, and did so with Jason Castro. Castro is under contract through 2019, so the move will continue to pay off. Keeping Sano at third base instead of DH: There was fear that Sano in the field at third base could be a liability, but he has done quite well there. The Twins definitely expect more production from Sano's bat, but keeping him at third base should be at least the short-term plan, assuming his current shin injury is not an impediment for doing so in 2018. Not trading Dozier: While his production declined a bit from a stellar 2016, Dozier was still the third-best of all the Twins. The leading rumor last year was that the Dodgers would have traded Jose De Leon, but the Twins wanted more. That judgment paid off, as we can only assume that the Twins would not have found most of Dozier's 4.4 WAR anywhere else. Not giving up on Mauer against LHP: Like most Twins fans, I was disappointed in Mauer's overall hitting in the years following the concussion, and I was clamoring for them to platoon him. Instead, he hit a respectable .750 OPS against lefties, and more, there was no obvious choice to pair with as a platoon. The Twins should continue to decrease Mauer's appearances against lefties, but the urgency to make this platoon a priority is eased. Keeping Eduardo Escobar despite a poor 2016. Escobar as a bench player contributed as the Twins hoped and not as they feared. While he might not play much again at shortstop, his bat is enough to warrant keeping on as a corner infielder. Moves that bombed Sticking with Grossman at DH: The Twins thought Grossman could hit, so they gave him lots more chances at DH. Well, we should now realize that he can hit...sort of. The Twins could have added a win or two with a better DH. Giving chances to Vargas: I think we now know that Vargas is not a major league DH. Could Falvey and Levine have come to this conclusion a bit sooner? Not bolstering the bench: While improvements here would have been marginal, the right set of moves may have added a win or two. On to the pitchers. 2016 2017 change5 Starters 1.5 7.4 +5.9Berrios -1.7 1.7 +3.4Duffey=>Colon -1.6 0.1 +1.7Santana 3.8 4.6 +0.8Nolasco=>Mejia 0.4 0.8 +0.4Gibson 0.6 0.2 -0.4 Pitching was disappointing, but there is a bit of hope in that they indeed improved, and two young pitchers clearly took steps forward. Moves that worked Not trading Santana: My choice for team MVP, J. Ervin Santana was the only comfortable part of this rotation. The Twins could have traded him, as he isn't a legitimate top-tier ace, but they would have been lost without him. Committing to Berrios: This was an easier decision given his solid start to the season, but they could have sent him to Rochester to start the year--and perhaps Terry Ryan would have done so. Instead, he now looks like a real pitcher who is ready to show the rest of the league his mettle. Giving lots of chances to Mejia: While Mejia's WAR is disappointing from a competition perspective, it is in line with a player in his stage of development. Without starting Mejia early and often the Twins might have hurt themselves, but more importantly, Mejia's development in the majors should give him more confidence and experience to improve in 2018. Signing Bartolo Colon: While his last month showed us that the Twins shouldn't press their luck, Colon gave the Twins just a dash of added success, however meek, that wasn't available anywhere else. Dillon Gee was just not going to get it done. Raising the standard past Duffey: When you are used to seeing poor pitching, Tyler Duffey might have looked promising, but he really isn't. There's a chance he can improve going forward, but it isn't a big one. Moves that bombed Signing Nolasco and extending Hughes: Yes, this was an old decision, but the Twins paid too much for Phil Hughes (in dollars+years) and Ricky Nolasco (in losing Alex Meyer). If they could have found a better free agent pitcher in 2014-2016 to help them this year, it would have been a bump up in the win column. Not having an ace: Easier said than done, but imagine how better off the Twins would be with an additional pitcher to start above Santana. All the other playoff teams had at least one top-tier starter, but the Twins are now stuck without one. I can't say that there was a move available to address this, but it remains an albatross the Twins will carry for the foreseeable future. And the bullpen: 2016 2017 changeRelievers 2.2 2.9 +0.8Tonkin=>Busenitz -0.4 0.7 +1.1Milone=>Breslow -0.7 -0.1 +0.6Rogers 0.6 1.1 +0.5Kintzler 1.0 1.1 +0.1May=>Belisle -0.1 0.0 +0.1Dean=>Duffey -0.4 -0.4 0.0Boshers 0.0 -0.1 -0.1Abad=>Hildenberger 1.0 0.8 -0.2Pressly 1.0 -0.2 -0.8 The Twins couldn't even get three wins-above-replacement from their top 9 relievers--which is particularly problematic when you remember that a replacement-level team would win only 45 or so games. Moves that worked Calling up Hildenberger and Busenitz: These two relievers outperformed all but two of the Twins' bullpen members, and did so in limited playing time. Hopefully this teaches the Twins a lesson--but it may be more apt to say that Falvey and Levine are teaching the Twins this lesson already: trust your young players if you believe they are good. 0.5 WAR replacement players are just that: replacable and often replaced. Why replace them with other scrap-heap signings and waiver claims when you could replace them with young, ready-enough talent? Moves that bombed Sticking with Pressly, Boshers, Breslow, and Duffey: These pitchers should have very little shot at a competitive team's bullpen. They just don't seem good enough, and the latter three are in danger of being designated for assignment--if not this offseason, at some point in the future when the Twins find relievers who are worthy. Particularly disappointing is Tyler Duffey, whose transition to the bullpen has been frustrating for himself and Twins coaches alike. Not finding other bullpen help: The Twins could have spent some millions improving their bullpen with options better than Belisle. The biggest flaws in the bullpen this year were injuries to Wimmers, Perkins, May, Chargois, O'Rourke, and Jay, though of course this is not reflective of a move that worked or failed; it's just too bad the Twins didn't have any other better options to turn to. Signing Matt Belisle: Feel free to object to this one, as I agree Belisle was one of the Twins' only good options in the bullpen--but they could have and should have done better. Becoming a real competitor Reflecting on all of this, here are some moves that you might want to put into your off-season blueprint. The Twins need to get to 92 wins to have a good chance to beat the Indians and win the division in 2018, and it may take more than that. It is a lot easier to get there from 83 pythagorean wins than in any of the five seasons previous, so now's the time to go for it. Expect more from Buxton and Sano: The Twins two most promising players underperformed as hitters in 2018: Buxton for the first half, and Sano with injuries and a minor slump. These two are on a excellent trajectory and still have a ton of promise. Neither of them should be a disappointment to anyone, and I am hoping for 10-12 WAR from them in 2018. Keep Brian Dozier and Ervin Santana: These are the kind of players the Twins should want to acquire, not trade away. Should the Twins keep them till free agency, they can make them each a qualifying offer and thereafter win an additional draft pick, which is a better outcome than trading them for B-level prospects. They are both solid players, and I hope for them to repeat their 9 WAR together in 2018. Sign or trade for a designated hitter: I do not like the idea of moving Sano to DH and relying on Escobar or converting Polanco or a prospect shortstop to a poor-hitting third baseman. It would be far easier to find some other upgrade at DH than it would to commit to prospects at shortstop/third base for the next few years. As long as Sano is near-average in the field at third base, let him stay there. Besides, Polanco projects as a better second baseman than third baseman, which the Twins will need after Dozier leaves in free agency for 2019. Keeping Sano at third keeps Escobar as a bench bat and infield fill-in and descreases the need to play players like Adrianza or Goodrum. A capable DH should be able to increase output by 1.5 WAR next year over Grossman. Sign an elite reliever: It is going to be easier to sign a reliever here than a starter, and the Twins have to get better at pitching anywhere. Signing Wade Davis, for example, would improve the bullpen tremendously and let the Twins use Hildenberger, Rogers, Buesnitz, and players coming back from injury in roles they can bulid success in. Wade Davis has achieved 3 WAR several times in his career, and we could hope for the same impact, especially if used wisely. Attempt to trade for an ace starter if it is posslble: This is a tough sell, so I won't belabor it. Hope for it, but it is unlikely. The Twins can't sell the farm for this, so it probably won't happen, but it is the biggest area the Twins could improve. They should at least try. As for signings, I'd make a semi-serious offer for Darvish or even Arrieta, but it likely won't have enough years or dollars to get either. Plan on trusting young starters over any free agents: While some may think the Twins should sign a free-agent pitcher, the risk of another Nolasco contract is large. Even if the Twins find a pitcher better than Nolasco and on par or even a bit better than Kyle Gibson, it would not appreciably improve the team, as the Twins already have six starters at this level: Mejia, Stephen Gonsalves, Aaron Slegers, Fernando Romero, Felix Jorge, and of course, Gibson. You can hope for 1.0-1.5 WAR out of any of these players; why go hunting for expensive free agents for it? Perhaps one of them will break through and deliver 3 WAR. So altogether, I'm hoping for an increase of 4 WAR out of the three, four, and five starting pitchers even with no trades or free agent signings. Plan on trusting young relievers over inexpensive free agents: The Matt Belisle signing is not one the Twins should repeat. While they should consider signing pitchers who are a step up from Belisle, signing a pitcher at Belisle's level (or even extending Belisle himself) is too weak an ambition to improve the team. The Twins have already shown confidence in Hildenberger and Busenitz, which should continue. The previously mentioned Perkins, May, Chargois, O'Rourke, and Jay are all options to help the Twins bullpen in 2018, as well as Jake Reed and John Curtiss after them. The Twins' farm system might be considered strong in relief pitching and 2018 is the year to start gaining from it. From the two through six relievers, the Twins can get 5 WAR better from just small improvements from each spot. One or two relievers will get worse and one or two may break through, but the 2017 baseline is so low that it will look like a new bullpen altogether in the aggregate. Consider signing or trading for a bench bat, preferably outfield: Assuming that Rosario or Zack Granite can play center field in a pinch, it might make sense to find an corner outfielder with some pop against left-handers. Even without a full-time platoon, such a player would be valuable off the bench. The Twins were hoping they could ask this out of Grossman, but it seems that they don't trust him to play defense regularly. Furthermore, neither Rosario and Kepler should be taken for granted; if either get injured or go into an extended slump, someone will need to step in. Chris B. Young or Rajai Davis look to be the best free agent options that somewhat fit. Perhaps the trade market might have a younger or better right-handed hitter. An increase of 1 WAR is reachable here. So all of these realistic, affordable decisions could result in an increase of 17 WAR, to bring the projected win total from 83 pythagorean wins (that is, wins with 0 luck) to 100, and it can be achieved with a modest payroll increase, few or no trades, and keeping the above average farm system going. Now I am not claiming that any of these projected performances are certain or even very likely. Even if the Twins make all these moves, players will get injured, slump, or just trail off into yearlong struggles. However, if the Twins execute an offseason plan to shoot for 100 wins, there's a chance they get 92 or 95, or even 102. The time for the Twins to have low expectations is over. The Twins should be aiming for 100 wins, and they can do it with a little gumption and strategy.

These ideas sound great; get some pitching in here! However, there are three gaping holes on offense that I'd like to fill as well: Rejiggering the 2014 Twins

You're right; I was thinking of New Britain. Fixing it now.

So you want to give up on 2014? That would be a different post, for sure.

Really? I want the Twins to sign Phil Hughes and Scott Kazmir, too! I know the Twins would never sign four big free agents, but they have to spend something big this year, because there aren't enough free agents in 2015 to stock the team enough to win often. It needs to be a two-year rebuild.

Yes and no. So far, Pinto has had one month of .800 OPS in AAA. If he can replicate that for September in the majors and again in April in AAA, I'd deem him fully ready to give not only Doumit but also Herrmann the boot--assuming his catching is up to snuff.

Remember, my whole premise is an ambitious one: that the Twins can compete in 2014. If you discard that idea, my plan would be entirely different. Beck, I tend to agree--and if they would truly spend an additional $40M on pitching, great. I think we'd get more bang for the buck spending $20M on pitching and $20M on hitting.

In my last "Rejiggering" post, the Twins' starting rotation got an overhaul by adding a borderline ace and a mid-rotation reliever. This is the minimum the Twins must do to have even a shot at being competitive in 2014. If they don't improve their pitching, nothing else matters. Since that post, the Twins' pitching has gotten worse--Kyle Gibson has been sent down, and Scott Diamond and Vance Worley remain with him in AAA. This underscores the futility of regarding the current staff as viable in the major leagues. Sam Deduno has kept his ERA, walks, and home runs low, thus earning a spot in the rotation for next year in my book. I'd swap him out with Gibson, who has been atrocious since being promoted; he'll have to re-earn a chance in the majors. I'll turn to the hitters next, as it was the lineup that prompted me to fear next year and seek to do something about it. Here's the status quo ante hotstove: 2014 Minnesota Twins - Apathy edition Pos Player Salary Service/Contract === ========= ====== ======= C Mauer $23.0M 2018 1B Colabello .5M Rookie 2B Dozier .5M 1 yr SS Florimon .5M 1 yr 3B Plouffe 1.5M 3 yr LF Willingham 7.0M 2014 CF Presley .5M 1 yr RF Arcia .5M 1 yr DH Doumit 3.5M 2014 If this is how the Twins open 2014, I will have to buy some cheap Target Field tickets from StubHub, because they will have buried their chances of generating any excitement. First of all, the obvious: Joe Mauer stays, as he has earned his $23M contract by being one of the most valuable players in Baseball. I just hope his concussion is "no big deal", which is probably never true for brain impact injuries. Still, players come back from concussions more often than not. Oswaldo Arcia has been a bright spot, achieving much in his rookie season. He needs to be a big part of the Twins' future. I've heard Aaron Gleeman talk about him as having All-Star upside, so the Twins should nurture his success and commit to him for years to come. He might even be a good target for a discounted long-term contract--Terry Ryan, look into it! Also, Brian Dozier has become a bona fide good player, posting a .500 slugging percentage since June 1. He still doesn't walk much, but he doesn't strike out too much either, so Twins fans should be thrilled with his progress and glad that one fewer hole will be present in the Twins' infield--at least tentatively. Josh Willingham is signed and not very tradeable, given his performance, age, contract, and injuries this year. The good news is that he is the same person as Josh Willingham from 2012, and he could very well have a big comeback year. The Twins should get ready with his replacement, but a winning Twins team in 2012 will need to include productivity out of left field--and they are unlikely to find a better resource to provide it than Willingham. Ryan Doumit has had a disappointing 2013, but he is signed and is versatile enough as our backup catcher. The Twins' 2014 manager, whoever it might be, should be apt to sub in various players at DH liberally, but I'd expect Doumit to get most of the starts there still next year. Here's hoping his bat returns to career-average levels at age 33. The Twins might consider trading him if a good offer comes along, as other teams might overlook one down year and be willing to get a good-hitting catcher for $3.3M on a one-year commitment. The Twins shouldn't be eager to ditch him. I would keep Chris Colabello on the team and give him a chance to prove himself for several months. His minor league track record (AAA MVP this year) has earned him that right. If you believe at all in player projections, hitters usually pan out even after a rocky start. Giving up on him now would be a mistake. The downside is he plays the second-least valuable position in the lineup. If the Twins can find a solid-hitting free agent first baseman for a reasonable price (Justin Morneau, say, or even someone better) they should sign such a player and let Colabello play as much as possible as a fill-in. Otherwise, just give Colabello the job. The rest of the 2013 Twins should not be regarded as preferable options. (I hope you read that last sentence as a huge understatement.) Aaron Hicks is in the same boat as Gibson, in my book--he'll have to play at AAA to earn his way back on the team. His unacceptable 2013 performance pushes back his development for sure. Alex Presley can be valuable--but off the bench, please. A few bloggers have tried to make a case for Pedro Florimon, citing his defense. Sorry guys, but he's definitely a player to replace if possible. That .600 OPS can't be wrong. He isn't drawing walks, isn't hitting, and isn't Ozzie Smith in the field. (By the way, Ozzie hit better, too.) Finally, Trevor Plouffe has caused us pain and heartache enough. I don't think we can expect much more out of Plouffe than we got this year. His OPS is under .700 for the year, under .600 for the last few months, and his fielding at third base is still questionable. That leaves us with center field, shortstop, and third base to fill--unfortunately, the three hardest positions to fill in baseball. Good hitters at those positions are at a premium. Luckily, the Twins have a lot of money to spend, so I'm going to try to spend it! The obvious first option for third base is Miguel Sano. A month ago, I was ready to give him the job starting March 1, but now I think they need to hold off. He still strikes out a ton and is a poor fielder. They need to play him in Rochester and make him prove that he is ready to draw walks in the American League like he's done in the Eastern League, and then I'll be satisfied--but that's only if the Twins' scouts can deem his fielding good enough for the majors. Call him up as soon as he is confident in AAA, but not before. (By the way, I just watched Pelotero, the documentary about Sano when he was 16. His nickname was Bocatón--"Big Mouth" in Spanish. Twins fans should immediately start calling him Bocatón in honor of the best hope of the franchise.) Likewise, the obvious wannabe option for center field is Byron Buxton. If it would be unwise to call up Sano for opening day, it would be utterly foolish to do so for Buxton, who has yet to play above single A. I don't see Buxton on the Twins until mid-2015. The Twins should start their big-time free agent spending on Curtis Granderson. Hoping he'd welcome a return to the AL Central, Granderson could probably be had for less than his $15 Million 2013 salary on a multi-year deal. The Twins could sign him for what they were paying Morneau--say three years, $39 Million. A reasonably big commitment could give them a productive player in a challenging position at a somewhat affordable rate. Then, in 2015 when Buxton is ready, the 33-year-old Granderson could shift to left to replace Willingham. A very nice fit. Shin-Soo Choo and Jacoby Ellsbury are also out there, but likely too expensive to be worth it. Next they should scoop up Jhonny Peralta, hopefully for the "bargain-basement price" of around $10 million for two years. His offense, while not spectacular, would be a huge upgrade over Florimon. The Twins shouldn't be afraid of a multi-year contract at shortstop, as they have no prospects at that position on tap. If you must balk at signing known PED users, Stephen Drew is also on the market. They should also look for a stopgap at third base. Here's the chance for one of Terry Ryan's 1990s-era old guy signings. Eric Chávez will be 36, and I'd play him in a platoon with Plouffe at third base until Sano is ready. He can probably be had for one year at $4 million. 2014 Minnesota Twins lineup - ambitious thinking edition Pos Player Salary Service/Contract === ============ ====== ======= C Mauer $23.0M 2018 1B Colabello .5M Rookie 2B Dozier .5M 1 yr SS Peralta 5.0M 2015 3B Chávez/Plouffe 5.5M 2014/3 yr LF Willingham 7.0M 2014 CF Granderson 13.0M 2017 RF Arcia .5M 1 yr DH Doumit 3.5M 2014 Payroll increased by $22M to $102M Now suffice it to say that three free-agent hitter signings, with two of them big names, is very ambitious. It may well take more years and dollars than I've allowed to get such players. Even if the Twins do end up with three free-agent hitters, they are very unlikely to be these guys--there's just too many possibilities. It is more likely that the Twins, if they want to be competitive in 2014, will find a way to make a trade to get a player already under team control. The Twins won't give up Arcia, Sano, or Buxton, but there's other talent in the system and in the major league bullpen that may be expendable. Speculating about trades is much harder than free agents, so I'll leave it at that.

When I first started as an umpire, the infield fly call gave me a bit of trouble. The first infield fly call I ever made was in error, as there were 2 outs. I never made that mistake again. Subsequently, umpiring in teenage leagues, these fly balls that were catchable with "ordinary effort" often weren't caught regardless of effort. Instead of leading to a unfair double play, the Bad News Bears would in panic throw the ball into the woods to try to make up for it. Too many arguments ensued where the offense's coach (youth teams don't have "managers") then doesn't understand why his batter was out on a play where there were two errors and no one caught anything. However, these problems went away quickly. The infield fly became routine and expected for the older and better teams. The easy ones were always caught, and the borderline ones ended up with either a catch or a drop but with the lead runner staying put, so no harm ensued. I never had a borderline infield fly result in a double play, but I was curious one day, so I looked up discussions on the play. SCENARIO: With runners on first or second or bases loaded, batter hits an fly ball catchable by an infielder with ordinary effort, but no umpire calls the infield fly or calls the batter out. Play ensues. RULING: The infield fly is not a situation than needs to be announced to be reality. Just like a ball that lands obviously foul without a call, the situation should ideally call itself. After the fact, the umpire may clarify the judgment call if there is any question, correct an earlier errant call or implied call, and confer with other umpires if he deems it necessary--just like any judgment call such as fair/foul, catch/no catch, or safe/out. Ensuing play should be allowed to stand, as the ball isn't dead on an infield fly call. Umpires should of course try to make things clear and obvious so as to avoid confusion and arguments. If, in the play in question in Wednesday's Twins-Angels game, the umpire would have merely forgot to call the infield fly, or missed the call, he could have corrected himself. However, it wouldn't have mattered. Watching the play, you'll notice that, as soon has the ball drops, the runner from first, Doug Bernier, takes off for second, thus ensuring he would be tagged out. If Bernier would have returned to first and stayed there, he would have been called safe had the umpire corrected the call--remember, on an infield fly, all runners except the batter-runner should do whatever they want--they may advance at their own risk, or stay at their time-of-pitch base. (Just like any fly ball, they only need to tag up if the ball is caught.) This illustrates the need to call the infield fly while the ball is in the air--if it isn't, the runners don't know what to do if it drops. Had Bernier had the presence of mind to , they may have thrown the batter runner out at first and he could have been safe anyway, even without an infield fly call. (Or, he may have been tagged out before they tagged first base, resulting in a double play--but that's no worse than what actually happened, right?) That being said, it sure looked like an infield fly to me. Batter's out. Maybe the Angels tag Bernier out as well anyway?

When I first started as an umpire, the infield fly call gave me a bit of trouble. The first infield fly call I ever made was in error, as there were 2 outs. I never made that mistake again. Subsequently, umpiring in teenage leagues, these fly balls that were catchable with "ordinary effort" often weren't caught regardless of effort. Instead of leading to a unfair double play, the Bad News Bears would in panic throw the ball into the woods to try to make up for it. Too many arguments ensued where the offense's coach (youth teams don't have "managers") then doesn't understand why his batter was out on a play where there were two errors and no one caught anything. However, these problems went away quickly. The infield fly became routine and expected for the older and better teams. The easy ones were always caught, and the borderline ones ended up with either a catch or a drop but with the lead runner staying put, so no harm ensued. I never had a borderline infield fly result in a double play, but I was curious one day, so I looked up discussions on the play. SCENARIO: With runners on first or second or bases loaded, batter hits an fly ball catchable by an infielder with ordinary effort, but no umpire calls the infield fly or calls the batter out. Play ensues. RULING: The infield fly is not a situation than needs to be announced to be reality. Just like a ball that lands obviously foul without a call, the situation should ideally call itself. After the fact, the umpire may clarify the judgment call if there is any question, correct an earlier errant call or implied call, and confer with other umpires if he deems it necessary--just like any judgment call such as fair/foul, catch/no catch, or safe/out. Ensuing play should be allowed to stand, as the ball isn't dead on an infield fly call. Umpires should of course try to make things clear and obvious so as to avoid confusion and arguments. If, in the play in question in Wednesday's Twins-Angels game, the umpire would have merely forgot to call the infield fly, or missed the call, he could have corrected himself. However, it wouldn't have mattered. Watching the play, you'll notice that, as soon has the ball drops, the runner from first, Doug Bernier, takes off for second, thus ensuring he would be tagged out. If Bernier would have returned to first and stayed there, he would have been called safe had the umpire corrected the call--remember, on an infield fly, all runners except the batter-runner should do whatever they want--they may advance at their own risk, or stay at their time-of-pitch base. (Just like any fly ball, they only need to tag up if the ball is caught.) This illustrates the need to call the infield fly while the ball is in the air--if it isn't, the runners don't know what to do if it drops. Had Bernier had the presence of mind to , they may have thrown the batter runner out at first and he could have been safe anyway, even without an infield fly call. (Or, he may have been tagged out before they tagged first base, resulting in a double play--but that's no worse than what actually happened, right?) That being said, it sure looked like an infield fly to me. Batter's out. Maybe the Angels tag Bernier out as well anyway?

I threw Shields' name out there because the Twins need to aim high. They have the money to spend. Any top-shelf pitchers the Twins should target in addition to a reclamation project?

All along this year, I have been holding out hope that the 2014 Twins could compete to win their division. Although things look a bit dimmer now than at the beginning of the year, I'd like to think that's still true. I've been mulling over what needs to be done to make that happen. I was at Target Field for Saturday's game against the Indians. My first disappointment was that Kevin Correia was pitching--but I couldn't any Twins pitcher that I'd rather see. I settled into my seat and took in every Twins batter that came up. As the Twins went through the lineup, I realized that I had no confidence in any of them except Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau. Sure enough, they both went 2-for-3 with a walk, whereas the rest of the team was 2-for-25. This performance brought to memory all I already know about the Twins. I questioned my assumption that the Twins could win a lot next year, and I began to ponder what they should do. Here's what I came up with. Some ground rules: I'm assuming twelve pitchers, as that seems to be more common for the Twins lately. I'm assuming only one backup outfielder (especially since the Twins have none right now), and that Ryan Doumit can continue as the second catcher without further backup. I'm figuring on six capable starting pitchers, as you always need at least that many, if not seven or eight. Obviously, this is only one example roster, and the real 2014 roster will fluctuate throughout the season. First, here's the default roster--that is, if Terry Ryan does nothing, here's what we're stuck with. Surprisingly, there are very few differences from 2013; the only free agents leaving are Morneau, Jamey Carroll, and Mike Pelfrey. I'm assuming they will all be gone--even if any of them re-sign, that will be a free agent signing we should consider just like any other. Also, with Morneau's declining production, I can't see the Twins offering Morneau a $14M one-year qualifying offer, as Morneau would probably just take it and be happy, eating up too much payroll too fast. I've also included the players' presumed 2014 salary and their service time (if bound to the Twins) or contract expiration. (There's a lot of nuance I'm not capturing here; suffice it to say that players with 3 years of experience are eligible for arbitration and those with 6 years experience can become free agents.) 2014 Minnesota Twins - Apathy edition Pos Player Salary Service/Contract === ========= ====== ======= C Mauer $23.0M 2018 1B Parmelee .5M 1 yr 2B Dozier .5M 1 yr SS Florimon .5M 1 yr 3B Plouffe 1.5M 3 yr LF Willingham 7.0M 2014 CF Hicks .5M 1 yr RF Arcia .5M 1 yr DH Doumit 3.5M 2014 UI Escobar .5M 2 yr 4O Thomas .5M 1 yr 1B Colabello .5M Rookie 1P Gibson .5M Rookie 2P Worley .5M 2 yr 3P Correia 5.5M 2014 4P Deduno .5M 1 yr 5P Diamond .5M 2 yr 6P Walters .5M 2 yr RP Swarzak 2.0M 3 yr RP Thielbar .5M 1 yr RP Fien .5M 1 yr RP Duensing 2.5M 4 yr RP Burton 3.3M 2015 CP Perkins 3.8M 2016 =========================== 25-man roster 59.6M Well, that's depressing. What can we do to improve this? The one bright spot is that we have a lot of money to work with. The 2013 payroll is at $85 million, and Twins President Dave St. Peter has stated that Ryan could have spent more had there been some good buys out there. I'm going to assume that the Twins, if they see an opportunity to be competitive, could easily spend $100 million on payroll in 2014; the chance is there for them to spend even more. MAke no mistake: the Twins will never spend money for the sake of it; they certainly could cut salary again in 2014 if there isn't a big improvement. Let's start with the most obvious need: starting pitching. I'm going to stash Alex Meyer at Rochester with the assumption that he'll be called up mid-season. His time in New Britain this year is going well but not superb, and he isn't the youngest prospect pitcher in the Twins system, so they need to get him up as soon as he can possibly be successful. First up in the real rotation, Correia has been pleasantly adequate as a starting pitcher, so I will be keeping him in the rotation. The bottom line is that it is always hard to get starting pitchers, and the Twins don't have the luxury of discarding a above-replacement-level starter already signed, so I've penciled him in. The same thinking goes for Vance Worley. I'm going to assume he will eventually be called up to rejoin the Twins this year and being contributing. The Twins signed him to be a middle-of-the-rotation guy for years to come, and it would be foolish--especially at his pre-arbitration salary--to give up on him or stash him at Rochester. His absence just leaves too big a hole to fill. Likewise, you can't give up on Kyle Gibson even if the rest of his rookie year ends up a bit stinky. Gibson needs to be better next year for the Twins to win, and there's no reason to think that impossible or even unlikely. Ideally, those three would be the back of the rotation, not the front. Minor-league options like Andrew Albers, P.J. Walters, or Logan Darnell aren't going to cut it. The Twins need to go sign or trade for some starters. I have no idea who the Twins could get, but whoever they are, they need to be very good if this team is to be competitive. Let's just start with someone like James Shields, who has a 3.83 career ERA, a 4.6 K/BB ratio, and high innings pitched every year. Assuming the Royals decline their $14M option, could he be had for 3 years, $45M? It would be one of the biggest contracts the Twins have ever given out, but that's what it takes to get a top starting pitcher. The Twins wanted but couldn't get Phil Hughes from the Yankees in the talks for Johan Santana. Assuming the Yankees don't want him back, could the Twins make a big splash and sign Hughes to his first free agent deal? It might take a big number--I'll just randomly guess 5 years, $75M? I'm more likely to say the Twins would be nuts to commit that many years to a pitcher with a mixed record. Instead, the Twins could have a less risky move in signing a reclamation project; how about Scott Kazmir? His comeback year with the Indians is going well; maybe the Twins could snatch him up for 2 years/$12 million. Also, after the Nishioka debacle, they are probably wary--but could the Twins could make another run internationally and try to acquire someone like Suk Min Yoon? The Korean phenom was rumored to be coming to America in 2012, but he never went on the market. After two more excellent years in Korea, maybe 2014 would be more to his liking? If the Twins could get two of these players (or any other good starting pitching), a winning team for 2014 looks conceivable. If they can't, I might as well not finish this series, because their pitching won't allow them to compete regardless of any lineup overhauls. Pos Player Salary Service/Contract === ========= ====== ======= 1P Shields 15.0M ??? 2P Gibson .5M Rookie 3P Kazmir 6.0M ??? 4P Worley .5M 2 yr 5P Correia 5.5M 2014 6P Deduno .5M 1 yr[font=courier new] Payroll increased to $80.6M[/font] Next up: the Twins need more hitting, too. In the meantime, what possible starting pitching moves do you think are ambitious but conceivable for the Twins?

All along this year, I have been holding out hope that the 2014 Twins could compete to win their division. Although things look a bit dimmer now than at the beginning of the year, I'd like to think that's still true. I've been mulling over what needs to be done to make that happen. I was at Target Field for Saturday's game against the Indians. My first disappointment was that Kevin Correia was pitching--but I couldn't any Twins pitcher that I'd rather see. I settled into my seat and took in every Twins batter that came up. As the Twins went through the lineup, I realized that I had no confidence in any of them except Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau. Sure enough, they both went 2-for-3 with a walk, whereas the rest of the team was 2-for-25. This performance brought to memory all I already know about the Twins. I questioned my assumption that the Twins could win a lot next year, and I began to ponder what they should do. Here's what I came up with. Some ground rules: I'm assuming twelve pitchers, as that seems to be more common for the Twins lately. I'm assuming only one backup outfielder (especially since the Twins have none right now), and that Ryan Doumit can continue as the second catcher without further backup. I'm figuring on six capable starting pitchers, as you always need at least that many, if not seven or eight. Obviously, this is only one example roster, and the real 2014 roster will fluctuate throughout the season. First, here's the default roster--that is, if Terry Ryan does nothing, here's what we're stuck with. Surprisingly, there are very few differences from 2013; the only free agents leaving are Morneau, Jamey Carroll, and Mike Pelfrey. I'm assuming they will all be gone--even if any of them re-sign, that will be a free agent signing we should consider just like any other. Also, with Morneau's declining production, I can't see the Twins offering Morneau a $14M one-year qualifying offer, as Morneau would probably just take it and be happy, eating up too much payroll too fast. I've also included the players' presumed 2014 salary and their service time (if bound to the Twins) or contract expiration. (There's a lot of nuance I'm not capturing here; suffice it to say that players with 3 years of experience are eligible for arbitration and those with 6 years experience can become free agents.) 2014 Minnesota Twins - Apathy edition Pos Player Salary Service/Contract === ========= ====== ======= C Mauer $23.0M 2018 1B Parmelee .5M 1 yr 2B Dozier .5M 1 yr SS Florimon .5M 1 yr 3B Plouffe 1.5M 3 yr LF Willingham 7.0M 2014 CF Hicks .5M 1 yr RF Arcia .5M 1 yr DH Doumit 3.5M 2014 UI Escobar .5M 2 yr 4O Thomas .5M 1 yr 1B Colabello .5M Rookie 1P Gibson .5M Rookie 2P Worley .5M 2 yr 3P Correia 5.5M 2014 4P Deduno .5M 1 yr 5P Diamond .5M 2 yr 6P Walters .5M 2 yr RP Swarzak 2.0M 3 yr RP Thielbar .5M 1 yr RP Fien .5M 1 yr RP Duensing 2.5M 4 yr RP Burton 3.3M 2015 CP Perkins 3.8M 2016 =========================== 25-man roster 59.6M Well, that's depressing. What can we do to improve this? The one bright spot is that we have a lot of money to work with. The 2013 payroll is at $85 million, and Twins President Dave St. Peter has stated that Ryan could have spent more had there been some good buys out there. I'm going to assume that the Twins, if they see an opportunity to be competitive, could easily spend $100 million on payroll in 2014; the chance is there for them to spend even more. MAke no mistake: the Twins will never spend money for the sake of it; they certainly could cut salary again in 2014 if there isn't a big improvement. Let's start with the most obvious need: starting pitching. I'm going to stash Alex Meyer at Rochester with the assumption that he'll be called up mid-season. His time in New Britain this year is going well but not superb, and he isn't the youngest prospect pitcher in the Twins system, so they need to get him up as soon as he can possibly be successful. First up in the real rotation, Correia has been pleasantly adequate as a starting pitcher, so I will be keeping him in the rotation. The bottom line is that it is always hard to get starting pitchers, and the Twins don't have the luxury of discarding a above-replacement-level starter already signed, so I've penciled him in. The same thinking goes for Vance Worley. I'm going to assume he will eventually be called up to rejoin the Twins this year and being contributing. The Twins signed him to be a middle-of-the-rotation guy for years to come, and it would be foolish--especially at his pre-arbitration salary--to give up on him or stash him at Rochester. His absence just leaves too big a hole to fill. Likewise, you can't give up on Kyle Gibson even if the rest of his rookie year ends up a bit stinky. Gibson needs to be better next year for the Twins to win, and there's no reason to think that impossible or even unlikely. Ideally, those three would be the back of the rotation, not the front. Minor-league options like Andrew Albers, P.J. Walters, or Logan Darnell aren't going to cut it. The Twins need to go sign or trade for some starters. I have no idea who the Twins could get, but whoever they are, they need to be very good if this team is to be competitive. Let's just start with someone like James Shields, who has a 3.83 career ERA, a 4.6 K/BB ratio, and high innings pitched every year. Assuming the Royals decline their $14M option, could he be had for 3 years, $45M? It would be one of the biggest contracts the Twins have ever given out, but that's what it takes to get a top starting pitcher. The Twins wanted but couldn't get Phil Hughes from the Yankees in the talks for Johan Santana. Assuming the Yankees don't want him back, could the Twins make a big splash and sign Hughes to his first free agent deal? It might take a big number--I'll just randomly guess 5 years, $75M? I'm more likely to say the Twins would be nuts to commit that many years to a pitcher with a mixed record. Instead, the Twins could have a less risky move in signing a reclamation project; how about Scott Kazmir? His comeback year with the Indians is going well; maybe the Twins could snatch him up for 2 years/$12 million. Also, after the Nishioka debacle, they are probably wary--but could the Twins could make another run internationally and try to acquire someone like Suk Min Yoon? The Korean phenom was rumored to be coming to America in 2012, but he never went on the market. After two more excellent years in Korea, maybe 2014 would be more to his liking? If the Twins could get two of these players (or any other good starting pitching), a winning team for 2014 looks conceivable. If they can't, I might as well not finish this series, because their pitching won't allow them to compete regardless of any lineup overhauls. Pos Player Salary Service/Contract === ========= ====== ======= 1P Shields 15.0M ??? 2P Gibson .5M Rookie 3P Kazmir 6.0M ??? 4P Worley .5M 2 yr 5P Correia 5.5M 2014 6P Deduno .5M 1 yr[font=courier new] Payroll increased to $80.6M[/font] Next up: the Twins need more hitting, too. In the meantime, what possible starting pitching moves do you think are ambitious but conceivable for the Twins?

I really hope Marquis can duplicate his numbers from 2009, but 2011, 2010, 2008, 2007, and 2006 speak that he probably can't. Seth, you really think a 4.70 ERA with a bad K:BB ratio and a fair amount of home runs given up is the pitcher I'm describing?

I just read the news about Joel Zumaya. I suppose none of us should be surprised Zumaya could be injured. Some will use this as an opportunity to say that the twins should have signed more help for the bullpen. While that may be true, I think it ignores the bigger picture. The Twins need to improve their teaching staff as a whole and two thirds of the innings of a pitching staff come from starters. Now I've heard it said that the Twins have five number four starters. I think this is a little bit too simple of an assessment. Baker, Liriano, and Pavano are all good pitchers. Of course there are flaws in each one. But any team in the nation would be happy to sign them to their rotation were the Twins to cut them today. The two others in the rotation, Blackburn and (presumably) Marquis, are a different story. The aren't expected to be good pitchers, and they don't show the potential to get much better. If the Twins were serious about contending this year, they should have signed or traded for a legitimate middle-of-the-rotation starter to take 180-220 innings, all of which are by definition winnable or losable games, since they are after all starting a tied game. That is a much bigger concern than replacing the 60 or so innings that Zumaya could have taken. If the Twins don't pitch much better than last year, they can't win the division. And if they can't win the division, why not blow it up and rebuild for 2013?

I just read the news about Joel Zumaya. I suppose none of us should be surprised Zumaya could be injured. Some will use this as an opportunity to say that the twins should have signed more help for the bullpen. While that may be true, I think it ignores the bigger picture. The Twins need to improve their teaching staff as a whole and two thirds of the innings of a pitching staff come from starters. Now I've heard it said that the Twins have five number four starters. I think this is a little bit too simple of an assessment. Baker, Liriano, and Pavano are all good pitchers. Of course there are flaws in each one. But any team in the nation would be happy to sign them to their rotation were the Twins to cut them today. The two others in the rotation, Blackburn and (presumably) Marquis, are a different story. The aren't expected to be good pitchers, and they don't show the potential to get much better. If the Twins were serious about contending this year, they should have signed or traded for a legitimate middle-of-the-rotation starter to take 180-220 innings, all of which are by definition winnable or losable games, since they are after all starting a tied game. That is a much bigger concern than replacing the 60 or so innings that Zumaya could have taken. If the Twins don't pitch much better than last year, they can't win the division. And if they can't win the division, why not blow it up and rebuild for 2013?