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2wins87

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Everything posted by 2wins87

  1. 2wins87
    Even his K rate has been creeping down. Under 30% in June, and under 25% through the first third of July. I think promotions might take a bit longer than we would hope since draft prospects won't be signing until the middle of next week at earliest, and probably start to get assignments the week after that. The promotions I'm most looking forward to: Wallner to AAA, Festa and Povich to AA, CES to AA, and Hajjar to A+. I also think Canterino needs to move quickly to AAA when he returns. It sounds like he should be close.
  2. 2wins87
    Seems like a very plausible draft. Generally pretty safe to assume that this front office will load up on college arms on day 2. Like others I hope that one of the consensus top 7 will fall to the Twins. Barring that I think I'd prefer Neto over Cross. He'll need more offensive refinement but I like his bat-to-ball skills as a foundation, and of course I like his positional and defensive value. I'm a big fan of going for high school pitching upside in the second round, and I could even see maybe doubling up with the comp pick if they are able to have enough money to sign two. Maybe an underslot deal with someone like Cole Young in the first round would allow that to happen. That would be an interesting upside over safety play. Probably not very likely but fun to speculate. Of the college pitchers, Johnson and Zobac sound the most like the Twins types based on your descriptions, but looking at how past drafts have gone they'll probably take a few under the radar guys and we probably won't know what they've actually gotten with them until a year or even two later once the development team has had some time to mold them a bit.
  3. 2wins87
    I love straight away camera angles. I think it could be a little lower and a little more zoomed in, but it's still great to be able to really see how pitchers' stuff moves, either lefty or righty.
  4. 2wins87
    There was an interesting tidbit from Dan Szymborski's bust article prior to the season where he noted ZiPs projected a big uptick in his walk rate based on his first strike percentage from last year. So it was actually predictable by at least one of the public projection systems. At this point he has a pretty long track record of not being very effective. Maybe there are some components of a pitcher that should be better. But maybe his pitches also just don't work as well as they should, maybe he's lost some control or the conviction to throw strikes early in counts. At this point, he seems like more of a project than a useful pitcher, and based on his track record going back at minimum 3 years, it seems like wishful thinking to say he should be better than this.
  5. 2wins87
    They could definitely use a starter to solidify their top 3 or 4 playoff starters. I'm sort of reluctant to pay the price for all of these guys who will be under control for at least one more year. All of them will require giving up some very promising player. I'd be interested in Syndergaard as a rental if the Angels decided they are sellers. They are a mess of an organization so they probably should, but I'm not sure if they will. There are some peripheral numbers that have dipped from his pre-surgery performance. He could still be working back to his former self though, and the Angels aren't known for being great at getting the best out of pitchers.
  6. 2wins87
    I think I've been less down on Martin than others, but I think there's a pretty good argument that Steer should be viewed as more valuable than Martin at this point. Both are guys who's biggest plus is the ability to make lots of contact. Steer has managed to turn the contact into solid power while Martin hasn't, and has maybe struggled with the quality of contact while trying to add power too. Defensively, Martin still has better tools but with his inconsistency their overall defensive values seem pretty equivalent right now. Martin has speed and age on his side, but he's only a bit more than a year younger than Steer, so there's not a ton of time to catch up. I'd sort the others between them a bit different too, but given the relative similarity in their likely MLB positions and closeness of their development developmental timelines I think they make good guide posts for whatever mental valuation model you want to make. At this point, I think Steer comes out on top by a bit. It's more a testament to Steer's positive development than anything else, but I think I'd be more reluctant giving him up in a trade than Martin.
  7. 2wins87
    Here are the 10 #5 overall picks taken in the years before Gordon: 2013 - Jackson Frazier 2012 - Kyle Zimmer 2011 - Bubba Starling 2010 - Drew Pomeranz 2009 - Matt Hobgood 2008 - Buster Posey 2007 - Matt Wieters 2006 - Brandon Morrow 2005 - Ryan Braun 2004 - Mark Rogers So 2 star players, 3 solid regulars, 2 replacement level role players, and 2 guys with brief MLB careers, and 1 guy who didn't even make the majors. If Gordon has a career as an above replacement level role player that will be right around the median for the slot or a bit above it. The MLB draft is the biggest crapshoot in sports. The Buster Poseys are actually the outliers for a #5 pick.
  8. 2wins87
    I actually think Martin will be a better second baseman than outfielder so still getting reps at SS isn't a bad thing for that eventual move.
  9. 2wins87
    Former #1 overall pick who had an ok stint with the Rays before bouncing around a bit. He is now 32 and hasn't played in the majors since 2019. He's emergency SS depth.
  10. 2wins87
    I don't think he's filling, or will fill, the role that Lewis will hopefully play. His role is super utility, and he's a quite good in that role. Personally I've liked what I've seen from him at the MLB level pretty much the whole time. While not what was originally envisioned, it's not actually even a particularly bad outcome for a former #5 overall pick. His aggressive approach keeps him from being a regular, but he's got the bat speed to hit major league fastballs and the hands to hit major league breaking balls. He's a bottom of the order guy that pitchers can't just take for granted.
  11. 2wins87
    I think I like Neto best for the college position players that are likely to be available at #8. The big leg kick and lack of power doesn't seem great, but it's kind of reminiscent of someone we've seen a lot of lately: Steven Kwan. I don't think the bat-to-ball skill is quite on the level of Kwan's, and the level of competition he's faced is mostly a bit lower, but a guy that can play good defense at short and make a lot of contact is always still pretty valuable.
  12. 2wins87
    It's not about the decision it's about the decision maker. Rhubarb, peas and carrots, ROCCO!!, rhubarb, rhubarb, SPREADSHEETS!!, peas and carrots...
  13. 2wins87
    I think they could definitely use Winder as a long reliever. They need somebody to be a long reliever to keep the rest of the bullpen more fresh right now. There was some weird maneuvering with Winder optioning him to AAA after his last rehab start in order to use him as a 27th man on Tuesday. He also has to remain in AAA for 10 days from his option date (ignoring the 27th man appearance) before being called back up. He hasn't been scheduled for another AAA start yet, and I think he could be added back to the 26 man roster either today or tomorrow. It would be Bundy and Archer's turns through in the rotation coming up Monday and Tuesday, either of which might be ideal times to have a solid long reliever available. I think we could see a move replacing Minaya or Cotton with Winder. He probably ought to be penciled into the rotation next year but I see the long relief role as the most valuable spot he can be in right now.
  14. 2wins87
    I kind of felt this earlier this year and now I'm more convinced it might be true. For all his "experience" I don't think Pagan is good at big situations. It seems like he was always trying to throw perfect pitches as a closer/set up guy. He's seemed to be way better at just attacking hitters and getting them out when he's been put in low leverage situations. It also just could be that he's not that great and it's just happened to have shown up in the worst possible situation. IDK
  15. 2wins87
    Jorge Lopez's first 32 appearances: 37 IP, 3 ER. His last two against the Twins: 1/3 IP, 4 ER. Based on his overall MLB career, it's quite possible Lopez isn't quite as good as his numbers this year suggest, but still a very impressive showing by the Twins lineup.
  16. 2wins87
    Buxton has some uppercut to his swing, which leads to a lot of balls in the air and also more swing and miss than you might like. That swing last night was just trying to make contact though, and the ball still just explodes off his bat. He's probably had 4 or 5 of those just making contact homers this year. Bottom line, he's found an approach that works for him. Compared to where he was 4 years ago, it's night and day. If he just stays on the field most of the time for the rest of his contract he'll be one of the Twins' all time greats, and I'll be very happy to watch it.
  17. 2wins87
    The hardest fastball I had previously seen out of Schulfer was 97 in Wichita. 99 isn't out of the question. He may have dialed it up a bit more since then, and he was overly well rested for his appearance last night. I think Balazovic was typically sitting 93-95 last year, so it's not good either way. I don't know if he is a guy who typically builds velocity throughout his outings, but his velocity is definitely a part of his struggles this year.
  18. 2wins87
    I mentioned Schulfer as an interesting bullpen arm yesterday and he got his first work in a week last night for the Saints, so here's a little broadcast scouting. I think it was a bit of an off night compared to what I saw in his AA appearances. He seemed to be struggling to control both his pitches compared to the previous outings that I watched. He managed to avoid giving up any free passes though, including coming back from 3-0 to throw a fastball by the #8 hitter for a strikeout. He threw mostly fastballs this time as his sliders were missing the zone, including a couple non-competitive pitches outside and in the dirt. His fastballs seemed to all be getting clocked at either 97 or 99 mph. The radar gun in St. Paul has been known to be a little hot, so maybe call it sitting 95-97, possibly touching 98. It ended up being a short outing as he induced an inning ending GIDP to erase an opposite field lead-off single. I don't think he looked great yesterday, but he still flashed stuff that seems like it could work in a major league bullpen, and his 5% walk rate across two levels is indicative of a guy who usually has very good control out of the pen.
  19. 2wins87
    oops
  20. 2wins87
    I've been getting more and more interested in Schulfer--who is now in AAA--as the season has gone on. Although he hasn't pitched in about a week now so I'm wondering about that. I went to some archived AA games to see what he was doing and how hard he was throwing. The Wichita broadcasts display velocity on most pitches. I saw a 97 and a 96 on his fastball. More interesting, I didn't keep track, but it seemed like he was throwing probably 65-70% sliders. He seemed to have command of the pitch as he was mostly burying it down and away to righties right around the edge of the zone. It seems like a profile that works in the majors and he's been incredible in his first season converting to a reliever.
  21. 2wins87
    That might have been true for many years but there is a different development regime now and recent history suggests this front office might be better at doing it the other way around. Since the new regime took over in 2017, Mark Contreras is their only position player pick outside of the 2nd round to make the majors. Spencer Steer might be the next and even he was a 3rd round pick. Meanwhile they have already gotten significant contributions from Ober and Winder taken in the 13th and 7th rounds respectively. They've also had several more guys pop up from the later rounds including Varland last year and Festa this year who look very promising, and others like Headrick, Gipson-Long, and Schulfer who haven't gotten quite as much attention but are also looking promising as they make their way to the high minors. This is not to mention that the 1st round pitching in this draft is incredibly thin. I think the first round is the best opportunity to get a position player with truly plus tools, and they can mold some pitchers from the later rounds. The front office has typically demonstrated that this is their strategy and this year would probably be a terrible year to veer away from it. The high school pitching is fairly deep and I think there could be some interesting high school arms available and signable in the second round. I'd be very interested in seeing them take a high upside shot there.
  22. 2wins87
    I haven't looked closely at his market. He will have Turner to compete with, who is a bit older and might be looking for a slightly shorter contract that could be more appealing to some teams. But I have to think that even a disappointing offer in Correa's eyes would have to be 8 or 9 years and at least close to $300 million. I wouldn't rule out that something like 8/$280 ends up being his best offer. I can see an argument that the Twins ought to give him an offer at whatever the market rate ends up being. The Twins could afford a contract of that size. But it is also just a reality that a contract that big could be an obstacle a few years down the line for a mid market team like the Twins spending at a typical rate to their peers. Lewis not being ready until sometime mid-season next year makes it harder to see Correa go in the short term. If you think Lewis will have at least a couple productive years as a primary shortstop though, then Correa probably isn't the most ideal fit anyway. My base case is for them to move on to a defense first starter to begin the year who can then move into more of a backup/utility role when Lewis returns. Maybe that could be Palacios, though I'm not sure they wouldn't want to aim for at least a slightly more proven bat.
  23. 2wins87
    What makes you think he won't get a deal in the range of Corey Seager's or Francisco Lindor's?
  24. 2wins87
    To be fair, it probably should have been Headrick who looked to be on track for another good start before the game was suspended. It's coming down to injuries again right now. Arguably their best pitching prospects Canterino and SWR are both now on the shelf. Hajjar also hasn't pitched since early June, and Raya had an ominous early exit -- have we heard any more on this? The seasons from Festa, Povich, Hajjar, Raya (backing up the hype), Gipson-Long, Headrick, and Schulfer have me more encouraged overall than I am discouraged by setbacks for Balazovic, Enlow, Henriquez, and Strotman. Balazovic and Enlow could be at the point of turning a corner after their injuries as well, at least we can hope.
  25. 2wins87
    Nice to see Martin getting on base a lot over the past week+. I saw a little chatter about the organization maybe tinkering with his swing, which wouldn't be surprising as he could certainly benefit from adding some power. Long term he probably still needs to drive the ball better, but letting him just get comfortable doing what he does best could be good for him right now.
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