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2wins87

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Everything posted by 2wins87

  1. 2wins87
    I don't even see Swanson as that kind of building block. Projections put him 2 wins behind Correa next year, which is likely his high water mark. His breakout season came with K/BB numbers continuing a bad trend. I think in 2 years Royce Lewis looks like the clearly better option not even factoring in how much cheaper he'll be.
  2. 2wins87
    There have been some very high AAVs but it's really been the lengths that have been surprising. I wonder if Correa isn't thinking he can get 12 years, given Turner and Bogaerts got 11, which probably could pretty easily get to the $350 million range. His bargaining position might be around 12/$360 to match Judge's overall value. I don't know if he can get that, but it seems like a reasonable goal if you are in his camp.
  3. 2wins87
    Correa's max arm strength was 95 mph, 5th in the majors this year among IF only guys (max velo OF throws are much different since guys get a lot more momentum behind them). His arm was as good as expected if you look at the right stat. Comparing to pitcher velocity is tough but my guess is if you add a few MPH for infielders and subtract a few for outfielders you would probably end up around what they could do off of a mound, so I'm guessing Correa probably could hit 98 off the mound which is right up there among some very hard throwing pitchers.
  4. 2wins87
    Nice to see some of the top performances coming out of the upper levels. I don't generally put a whole lot of stock into minor league relief performances until they can do it in AA or AAA.
  5. 2wins87
    I don't remember super well on Sisk but I think he was probably mid 90s with the FB when I watched him. The most notable thing about him is his arm slot from the left side, maybe not quite side-arm but below 3/4, giving lefties a really tough time against him. Laweryson is really only a low 90s max guy. I think he was 89-92 when I was able to see velo reading on him. He's got a funky delivery though, with a sort of glove flick out in front that I think must really make it hard for hitters to pick out his release point. The fastball seems to work way better than you would expect otherwise. Schulfer is a legit upper 90s guy, I think he sat mostly 95-97 when I watched him, and even hit 99 if you believe the radar gun in St. Paul. Might be sort of comparable to Jax in that he increased his velocity significantly in his first year as a reliever and throws quite a few sliders. No idea on the other guys. You would probably be able to see some radar reading on McMahon if you watch his appearances in some archived AA games.
  6. 2wins87
    I know they signed Nowlin out of junior college and went a little above slot to sign him away from Alabama. I remember hearing that he was another guy who had added a little bit of velocity this year, so I think he was getting into the mid 90s IIRC. Low A numbers can be a little deceiving for pitchers, but he's having a great season. Definitely worthy of at least a top 40 consideration for me.
  7. 2wins87
    Yeah the stats don't jump off the page for SWR but when I dig into them a bit more he looks a lot better. First off the Texas League is a tough place to pitch; when you compare him to other pitchers in the league his FIP is 6th and his ERA is 8th (minimum 50 innings). He's doing it as a 21 year old too, still one of the youngest pitchers in the league. I can see where someone could say that he's gotten lucky to have such a low HR/FB rate and BABIP in a high offense league, but I think there is reason for encouragement there too. He's had a 33% infield fly ball rate. With a 42% FB rate in general that's 14% of his balls in play that are basically automatic outs, essentially as good as strikeouts. I think if you looked at his HR to outfield fly ball rate that would look maybe a bit lucky still but would be a lot closer to normal. I'm also pretty sure I remember hearing third hand (probably on this site) that his "mysterious" injury was COVID, so probably not anything to worry about long-term health wise. Anyway, I'm actually pretty encouraged by his season so far.
  8. 2wins87
    That's a good question, I don't really know, I'm guessing he's in the bubble group. Seems with his positional versatility he could easily fill a utility role and he seems ready for a major league trial. Maybe he could sneak through the draft on the fact that he'll be turning 27 at the beginning of next season. Or if he were picked a team might not be too invested in hanging on to him if he struggles early do to his age. I think the FO likes to bring in a few veteran guys to fill the AAA depth roles, though I often wonder if the marginal prospects might often be the best options. Palacios did end up getting the fill-in shortstop role this year, though maybe if there had been a rule 5 draft he wouldn't have still been around. I would hope they considering giving him a 40-man slot just to be an injury fill in at basically any position. Seems like a useful role and we can pretty much guarantee he'd be needed multiple times next year.
  9. 2wins87
    Julien's K rate is 24%. Not great but not too bad. Always gotta use PAs for K% rather than AB, particularly for a guy who walks a lot so the difference between PA and AB is large. It's been good to see him getting to his power again lately. A guy who doesn't have great contact skills and relies on drawing walks probably doesn't translate all that well to the majors if he doesn't have power to back it up. If he keeps showing solid power I'll be encouraged.
  10. 2wins87
    I don't actually know how fast Helman is but he's 24 for 26 stealing bases this year and plays a lot of centerfield so I'm fairly confident he's significantly faster than Steer. He's a guy that plays all over the place and does a lot of things quite well. He's definitely been too far under the radar this year, and in previous years I guess too. I was actually wondering yesterday if he might get the spot Cave did with the outfield so banged up. I think Gordon is definitely a good comp for the type of player Helman might be from the other side of the plate. Statistically Helman's minor league career has been a bit better than Gordon's though not by a ton. They had similar K rates in the 15-20% range, Helman has walked just a touch more, and Helman also showed a bit more power early on. We have to keep in mind that Helman is just a couple months younger than Gordon right now so Gordon was much younger at every level, even when repeating AAA. Helman also probably wouldn't even be an emergency option at short, though he has had more experience at other infield positions than Gordon. Gordon is currently putting up a 109 wRC+ in the majors, so if Helman does that any time in the next few years that would probably be a pretty fantastic outcome for him. I think with Gordon, the disappointment from high expectations several years ago has made it hard to readjust and see that he's actually a very good player in the role he has.
  11. 2wins87
    They just added 18 guys in the draft and there is a 180 minor league player limit that I think gets enforced sometime in early August. I'm not sure how many minor leaguers the Twins actually have so they could already be under the limit, but it also might mean a couple more cuts of journeyman types which tends to happen post draft.
  12. 2wins87
    Overall good trade deadline. I think they checked all the boxes for what they needed to acquire and all of the deals were pretty reasonable. They did thin out the farm somewhat significantly, but didn't have to give up the very top guys. I don't think it's likely we look back in a few years and see that they've lost a star, but probably they will have lost a couple of valuable role players. Nothing that can't be made up more good decisions and development. If I wanted to criticize, I think it was pretty obvious from the last day of the offseason that the pitching was pretty iffy and they didn't seem willing to pay free agent prices for real upgrades. They gave up quite a bit today. They could definitely have been in a similar position now with more of their prospect capital or maybe have used the same capital to be in an even better position.
  13. 2wins87
    Finally, the blockbuster deal we've been waiting for! ?
  14. 2wins87
    I wouldn't put anything close to Miranda or Votto contact grades on CES. Miranda literally had a career minor league K rate half that of CES, and Votto always had K rates under 20% as well. What he does have is a crap ton of power with a still very reasonable amount of swing and miss. Trying to come up with power/contact comp quickly maybe Matt Olson? Encarnacion-Strand still needs to walk more though. Maybe if you really want to dream on him Pete Alonso? Again, CES has work to do on his plate discipline to really be in the conversation at that level. I still think Steer is the big loss in this one for that reason, though I absolutely think CES will be a good major leaguer too.
  15. 2wins87
    Ok fine, I would say it's fairly similar even if it doesn't look that way on paper according to the lists by national publications. Most of the lists have not really been heavily updated since March. Martin was ranked very high on some lists at the beginning of the season but he was already having a bit of a slower start than hoped. He probably should have been viewed around #50 where he ended up at the end of the season. Steer is on the rise and I would not be surprised to see him around #50 on some lists coming into 2023. CES will likely be more of a bubble guy on the outside of the top 100, but paired with a solid arm, I don't think it's unreasonable to put a similar value to SWR last year, maybe just a bit lower. The main point is that the Twins are trading risers for Mahle while the Blue Jays traded a guy who was trending down a bit and a guy who was having a bit of a hiatus in his development because of the Olympics.
  16. 2wins87
    CES is more likely a 1B prospect also despite playing mostly at 3B so far. Doesn't really change the depth chart considerations.
  17. 2wins87
    I like Mahle, but yeah, certainly not painless. Compared to the Berrios trade, you could probably say it's fairly similar. Steer doesn't have the pedigree that Martin did at the time but he's rising fast and his season this year has not been far off what Miranda did last year at the same two levels. There are a few mitigating factors that make me skeptical that Steer will transition quite as easily as Miranda is right now, but it still could be a trade where we see what we gave up rather quickly. CES and Hajjar combined maybe don't rank as highly as Woods Richardson did either, but I think CES is a legit masher regardless of where he ends up. I'm less sold on Hajjar since he's only in low A where stats very often look deceptively good for a 22 year old pitcher, but still a good arm nonetheless.
  18. 2wins87
    Beckham is 32 years old on a one year minor league contract. He just doesn't fit as a starting player on either a contending team or a rebuilding team. Unfortunately for him the role that he fits best in is the one he is currently in, which is emergency minor league depth.
  19. 2wins87
    I would generally have said Kirilloff over Miranda at any point in the past year, but it's getting very close. Kirilloff's approach generally seems very good, but I wonder a little bit about him underperforming his power potential going so heavily the other way. It seems like pitchers have continued to stay away from the inner half mostly, knowing that most of the time he's only going to make it to the warning track going opposite field on an outer half pitch. We've seen some good stretches from him but still just haven't seen the kind of stretch that Miranda has had the last two months. His track record doesn't really show any more ability to draw walks, and while he makes a lot of contact he's not on Miranda's level there either. For the record, the most prominent values on Baseball Trade Values are surplus value not just overall value and both are projected to have the exact same years of control remaining with nearly identical projected value over that time. Kirilloff is just projected to cost $5 million less over that span, and I don't think that assumption really seems correct though I haven't dug into it. So right now projections are incredibly close as well.
  20. 2wins87
    I've been trying to figure out what has made Laweryson so effective this year, and I think hitters must have trouble picking the ball up out of his hand. He's got a funky delivery with his glove flicking up in front of him, and the ball probably comes out from right behind the glove. Otherwise his fastball is only 89-92, though he gets some swings and misses on it probably in large part due to deception, and I think he was featuring a low 80s curve and low 80s changeup last night. He also did benefit from two nice throwing plays from his defense last night and very likely would have given up at least a run otherwise.
  21. 2wins87
    You can find the tracker under the triple-bar menu and "Twins Resources" sub-menu. Not the most accessible, there ought to be some more prominent way to get there. I'm personally much more interested in concrete information vs trade rumors that mostly end up being meaningless. At any rate, the tracker has the first 18 of 20 picks signing, and it also states that the last two already announced their intentions to go/go back to school. So the signings are done, just mostly not announced. There are only 5 bonuses listed so far, the widely reported $5,675k for Lee, $1,825k for Prielipp, $1,002k for Schobel, $250k for Ortega, and $140k for Lewis. The last two make up about $100k of the $400k+ overslot for the first two picks. I think the rest are expected to be at or below slot, and they are already less than 5% overslot, so anything else under slot is really just to reduce the tax.
  22. 2wins87
    I think he was definitely crossed up. I think he knew what he called, so more likely Duran almost cost himself a strike on a good pitch. Good pitch nonetheless.
  23. 2wins87
    Ump wasn't great in that inning but actually kind of impressive getting the last call right the way Sanchez caught it.
  24. 2wins87
    Well, sort of redundant. Is Buxton ready to go tomorrow? Is Kepler's foot ok? If the answer to either question is no then this is a move that makes them pretty thin in the outfield, even if just for one game. There is a chance we end up seeing an outfield of Gordon, Kirilloff, and Garlick tomorrow, with no subs available. That probably won't happen, it's probably just one or two games at most, and if the answer to both questions is yes then there really isn't much of a depth problem at all. Still, knowing Buxton can't play CF every game, it's not ideal roster construction. Over the medium to long term, we probably get a little more Gordon than we should, and a little less Miranda. I understand the move, and obviously it's happening now because the only other option is just to let Sano walk for nothing while eating all of the rest of his guaranteed money. Still the timing isn't ideal with Kepler's foot now a bit of a question. Hopefully it's only through the trade deadline. Larnach should also be ready to return in about two weeks, and it will probably be a lot harder to justify keeping Sano on the roster against Larnach than it is against Celestino.
  25. 2wins87
    I mostly agree with this assessment, except I think some of the fringe pitchers are are worth really thinking hard about. Schulfer in particular as a guy getting AAA hitters out with an upper 90s FB and solid looking slider seems like an easy stash for some team. I think of Nick Anderson who dominated AAA but didn't even get a September trial and was then traded to Miami for basically nothing because they weren't going to use a 40 man slot on him. He was already 27 but they seriously misjudged his ability to get MLB hitters out as he went on to dominate quite quickly with Miami and Tampa Bay. One of the new FO's worst self-scouting mistakes IMO. I don't know that Schulfer's stuff will necessarily play as well in the majors but I think it would be a good idea to find a way to get a look against MLB hitters this year. Laweryson, one of the few pitchers still looking great in the very high offense Texas league could also probably be stashed, though I'd agree he is a lot more fringy to be taken in the rule 5. Given the needs of the MLB club they should be very motivated to include some of these guys in trades. Even though I'm very high on Steer I'm pretty open to trading him at the right price for that reason. If they find that another team is very high on one of these guys it would probably be a good move to cash in their value now.
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