2wins87

It's a very interesting idea. I wonder how much time they would want to spend trying to have their top pick catch when you would hope his bat would move quickly, and he also has enough speed to probably play a passable center and be plus in a corner. That said, turning him into a decent catcher would really maximize his value.

Yeah, the thing that keeps him on the "other guys to watch" list for me is the fact that they didn't seem overly eager to promote him quickly despite being a little old for single-A, and he hit some speed bumps once he got to high-A, getting hit hard a few times. Certainly with a mid 90's fastball, good control, and developing secondaries, there is no reason he can't make a big jump this year.

My impression from what I've read lately is that it's a very strong draft and the top is not set yet. Crews and Dollander came in as the most well regarded hitter and pitcher by the industry, but the talent of guys behind them is enough that they could easily be surpassed in a lot of draft rooms. It sounds like both Skenes and Waldrep are close enough to Dollander that it wouldn't be surprising at this point for one of them to end up in the top 4 (and Dollander potentially being available at #5). Bottom line, there is going to be someone really good available at #5.

I should add last year's 14th round pick Omari Daniel to that list too. His defense was apparently very well regarded for a high school SS, so if the bat develops, who knows?

So well timed

I mostly agree with this, but there are a couple international guys already in the org that have at least some shot as well. Maybe De Andrade or Bryan Acuna if they pan out well. Lewis or Lee only if something goes wrong with Correa forcing him off the position earlier than expected.

Writeup here No one really ranked outside the consensus that I see. They seem to like the young, high-variance international signings from the last few years. I liked this blurb from Prielipp's scouting report: Could have been reported elsewhere but I hadn't heard anything on his work in instructs. The velocity is encouraging; I don't think he had fully regained it in his pre-draft workouts. With such a limited track record to go on, I'm looking forward to seeing him in action this year.

It is weird how quickly everyone goes to the Marlins with the "M" logo. It's not even their current logo but the 2012-2019 ones that everyone is thinking of, and even then it doesn't really look the same besides the fact that it is a capital M. My mind immediately went there when I first saw it too, so there is obviously some Marlins brand association still at work. Maybe shows that the Marlins actually made a mistake going from a logo that everyone recognizes to something where no one knows what it looks like. Anyway, I agree that the TC is still the gold standard. I still have some nostalgia for the lowercase m ones but I'm not sure the new M isn't actually objectively better. I actually do like the new font on the jerseys. The new M hat has grown on me slightly and I think there is probably some tweak to the M+star layout that probably looks better but I'm not sure what it is

Maybe a more niche appeal of the pitch clock, but for me watching on MLB.tv and joining about 2 innings in, the 10-second skip ahead was great for cutting out most of the dead time between pitches. A couple guys were almost too quick with their pace, but generally I think there was about 12-15 seconds between pitches received by the catcher and around 25 seconds when there was a foul ball, so I could basically click from pitch to pitch while I caught up to the game. I think last year it might have been something like 20 between most pitches and 30 after foul balls

Probably where everyone is at by the end of spring training will play the biggest role. But all things being equal I would agree Gray based on veteran-ness and performance last year. If there is a rough 1-5 order I think they might continue with Lopez, Ryan, Mahle, and Maeda. Honestly all 5 of those guys probably have close to equal odds of being the Twins' best starter at the end of the year though (for better or worse).

First game on MLB.tv so I was happy to get to watch baseball again. Not too many regular/top prospects to watch but still had a few takeaways. Was trying to watch for Ryan's improved slider. The score box on the Philly broadcast called it a "slutter" which I think was uncalled for. I remember one nice whiff when he located it well down and away. I think there might have been one or two more, but he mostly got weak contact on it. Phillies didn't hit him hard but his command clearly wasn't there in his first ST start. Probably will get there by opening day. The highlight for me was Brent Headrick. Sat 92-94 with the FB doing a pretty good job of hitting his spot at the top of the zone. Ran it up to 95/96 a few times with 2 strikes. He had a sweeping curve working too. He finished Castellanos with two back-foot curves. First one buckled him a little bit as he managed to hold up, second one he swung right over the top. Shades of Taylor Rogers on that particular pitch to me. Overall he seemed to be in pretty good command of all of his pitches. I think the velocity was pretty on par with where he was midseason last year, but I'm not sure how often he was hitting 95 or 96. If he does that regularly this year I think he moves into the conversation as a top starting pitching prospect. Miranda didn't get too many pitches to hit but looked good in all 3 at bats. He seems ready for the WBC. Julien might have been jobbed by the ump on a few close pitches called for strikes (particularly in his first AB). It's going to be an adjustment for him facing pitchers that can live around the edges more reliably. Lee's right handed swing generates tons of contact and line drives. Not that he's impatient now, but he seems like a guy that can only benefit by increasing patience and making the pitchers come to him.

This is a weird way of looking at his season last year. He actually did have an ERA over 10 in April last year (which I think is fair to attribute partly to some rough luck). Getting his ERA down to where it was at the end of the year did require him to be pretty much dominant for most of the rest of the year (2.38 ERA from May on). Even with a few more home runs in May through September it would have been a very solid stretch of relief pitching.

If he continues to pitch well this year I'm guessing his arb number would be about $4 maybe $4.5 million next year as a 37 year old. Based on how the front office usually approaches the bullpen I would guess that will already be a close decision for them. He's been fun to root for though, so I'm hoping he has two more good years in him, giving him a good payday (by non professional athlete standards at least) before likely retirement.

With healthy legs he could hit 30+ HR and play plus defense at 2B. I'm not sure where his health will be at but I'm not assuming he won't be healthy, in which case it's very easy to envision a scenario where he's easily worth 2-3x his $10 million option. Maybe he's still trade bait in that scenario, but if they're contending and he's like their 3rd best position player no way he's moved before the deadline. And they'll have to get a very good offer for him in the off-season as well.

Edit: Oh, 2025 not 2024, so yeah Lee should easily have graduated. I do think the #5 pick this year is shaping up to be a very strong prospect and will have a good shot at #1 though. While I think Lee will still move quickly, I think him getting enough at bats/service time to graduate from the list this year is probably either very optimistic or pessimistic depending on what scenario you envision.

I usually start researching the draft looking at college position players just because of recent draft tendencies. It seems like they could be all over Wyatt Langford based on what I've seen reported on his exit velos and his strong college performance in general. It also sounds like Brayden Taylor has some quality data behind him, and Fangraphs recently rated him #2 on their updated board, though he's more just outside the top 10 at most other outlets at least for now. I can kind of see them going a different direction this year. It sounds like there is quality depth in the draft this year for most types except maybe HS pitching?

From what I know of his personality, kind of hard for me to see Wes not having positive things to say about one of his pitchers. Not sure he'd have the inclination or be in the position to give the Twins' scouts anything different than other teams either. But at the very least, I would think that the developmental philosophy he's brought to LSU will still be very similar to the Twins'. So that probably would give them more confidence that he's being developed in a similar direction that they will take, or maybe they could see if he's not taking as well to the coaching. But yeah, in some way the connection will probably make it more likely that they will take Skenes than they would be to take a clone without such connections. I also don't know if this is a connection or not, but there is also the Air Force angle with Griffin Jax being the first and best player developed out of the Academy, though he was drafted by the prior regime. Going from Air Force to Wes Johnson it almost seems like he's angling to be drafted by the Twins.

I did end up watching some random videos of Buxton batting on Baseball Savant, and the shifts were not too extreme. I never saw the shortstop playing deeper than the edge of the grass, so the new rule is irrelevant there. I did see the second baseman playing maybe 5-10 feet to the left of the new line behind second base sometimes, but other times they were already positioned basically up the middle on the right side. So some teams will have to change their preferred defensive alignments against him a little bit, and he will probably get a hole up the middle to the left side of second base more often, and maybe a slightly bigger seam between the SS and third baseman. I think he can still be shifted somewhat effectively. Overall, the new rule doesn't affect RH shifts too much. The biggest change will still be for LH hitters who get the second baseman in right field all the time. Still not sure how much of a difference that will make in the final stats either.

This is really interesting and surprising. I am wondering how much different the shifts on him will actually be under the new rules though. I don't really recall what opposing defenses did against him, but RH shifts are usually less extreme. I can't recall many times the SS was actually playing on the grass, and they wouldn't throw him out from there anyway. It should probably open slightly larger holes on the left side, but I don't think it'll be a huge difference.

I like Nowlin as a pick to click. I liked the ranking at #21 from TD after he didn't even seem to be on the radar for a few other lists I've seen. I might move him up a couple of spots already, but I could see him moving into the top 10 quickly this season if he continues to refine his control and secondaries. There were a couple of low money IFA signees from last year that performed well in the DSL. I don't expect them all to transition to the states seamlessly, but I think one of them will look good in the FCL and raise his profile significantly. Anderson Nova, Daniel Pena, and Isaac Pena are 3 that I'll be watching in the FCL boxscores.

So normally I'd argue that "clutch" performance, or lack thereof, is mostly just random luck, and I still think it is in most situations. In Pagan's case, I do think there is something there. He's been way worse in high leverage situations. For his career he has a .847 OPS against in high leverage situations, vs about .660 in low and medium leverage. It's been a consistent story every year of his career too, even his best years. Last year it seemed like he would nibble and nibble and nibble in high leverage, fall behind in the count, and then invariably he had to throw a strike and he'd cough up the big hit on a pitch down the middle. So yeah, it seems like he needs to learn to attack and pitch more like he does in low leverage. Maybe a sports psychologist would help, but honestly he should probably just be a middle reliever at most. Not sure about Lopez, still too early to say that it wasn't just random luck. I do think some people are fooling themselves that there wasn't a significant amount of luck in his first half with Baltimore. I think he did make adjustments becoming a reliever, but I think it's kind of unlikely that he actually became one of the best relievers in the game when you consider his full track record in the majors. I think he should be a good reliever, like Jax maybe, but we probably shouldn't expect too much.

I'll be open minded that he can be better this year, but my main issue is that he looked like a low leverage arm when they acquired him, but they seemed to believe that they got a high leverage arm. And it didn't take too long before he was pitching like a low leverage arm in some of the highest leverage situations. I am hoping for the best, but I'm also hoping that the FO and coaching staff have reset their expectations. For me, he'll have to really be lights out before I want to see him in even moderately high leverage, but the FO seems to have way more faith in him than I do.

Figured it would be close, but that Lee would ultimately be the #1. I'm still in the camp for Lewis as the #1 prospect. I really believe the short sample from last year was Lewis finally putting it all together. Lee is not even close to competing on tools alone, and I still feel pretty bullish on Lewis being able to access those tools effectively at the MLB level. If the question is who do you value higher in a trade, I'd probably say Lee. Lewis will have over a year of MLB service time after coming back, so it will limit how much value he can accumulate while under team control. He also probably won't get a chance to accumulate a ton of positional value at SS. Assuming normal health for Lee, he will probably have at least a year more of actual playing time under team control. I also think Lewis would be the more valuable SS between the two if given the chance to play there regularly, but its a moot point for his value to the team unless Correa gets hurt or has to move to 3B faster than expected for some reason. But for the subtly different question of top prospect, I still expect Lewis to be the more valuable player on a per game basis at his peak, possibly by quite a bit. Even factoring in more health questions going forward, I see Lewis as the better player on a per season basis as well, but it could be closer there if Lewis continues to be a higher injury risk.

I have no worries about his approach at the plate. I'm not sure about the K rate though, so I'm still withholding a lot of judgement until we see how he holds up at higher levels. He's really a statistical unicorn. His overall offensive production was dominant, but it's hard to find other guys with that level of production without K rates below 20%, and often below 15%. Definitely the one guy that I'm most eager to see getting more playing time under his belt.

I read "3rd pitch" to be referring more to his changeup in that context, though I guess Law doesn't seem to love is slider like most publications do. I didn't realize Raya threw a cutter too. Having 3 distinct breaking balls could be interesting if he can learn to command them all, though most likely he'll have to focus on the two moving up. It might be enough to keep lefties off any one breaking ball, but if he's going to be a starter, the changeup will probably still be key.