chpettit19

The early talk of Minnesota Twins spring training is not the return of Kenta Maeda or the leg of Carlos Correa, but rather the blistering start from Edouard Julien. The infield prospect put a bow on the chatter by belting two home runs against Atlanta in Tuesday’s 10-7 pretend game victory.
Jason Kornhaber is already mad about it.
“Edmond [sic] is a monster talent,” said Kornhaber, who found out about Julien’s existence on Friday, February 24th, when two-time Jeopardy! also-ran Do-Hyoung Park interviewed him for MLB.com. “It’s unconscionable that this team would hold him back. Are they playing to win or playing with Edwin [sic] ’s service time?”
Julien, an 18th-round pick out of Auburn in 2019, led the minor leagues with 208 walks over the last two seasons. This is just one of the recently acquired facts that Kornhaber has marshaled in Julien’s defense despite not knowing his entire name yet.
“Juilliard [sic] is a generational talent, and the Twins are throwing it away,” said the Farmington beekeeper. Per sources close to Kornhaber, he has also said this about Kohl Stewart, Alex Burnett, Michael Restovich, Deolis Guerra, Anthony Slama, and Matt Moses. In addition, a former roommate said Kornhaber vowed to get a tattoo of MTV’s Dan Cortese on his thigh if J.D. Durbin didn’t record a 20-win season. Durbin finished his MLB career with six total wins. Kornhaber denied the story.
“He’s going to lead Team Canada to a World Baseball Classic title and come back to Fort Myers with a ticket to (home of Twins Triple-A affiliate) St. Paul,” claimed Kornhaber, who discovered Julien’s nationality on Monday.
The Twins have made no indication on their plans for Julien in 2023, but Kornhaber’s anger is already at a fever pitch not seen since his misguided advocacy for Joe Webb as the Minnesota Vikings quarterback of the future.
“I can’t believe they’re doing this to Erwin [sic],” said Kornhaber.

The Twins certainly have a history when it comes to their most hyped prospects getting to the majors and immediately or shortly thereafter suffering career-altering injuries. To make matters worse, these prospects usually show they can handle the hardest part of breaking through to the majors: holding their own, or even thriving against big league pitching/hitting. A few examples:
Jason Kubel (Knee) Joe Mauer (Knee) Francisco Liriano (Elbow) Byron Buxton (Three Stooges Syndrome) Royce Lewis (Knee X2) Trevor Larnach (Core) And to a lesser extent:
Bailey Ober (Groin) Christian Guzmán (Shoulder) Another player to add may be Alex Kirilloff. Drafted by the Twins 15th overall in 2016, he hit right away in the short-season leagues until he tore a ligament in his elbow and missed all of 2017 while recovering from Tommy John surgery. He reestablished himself in 2018, hitting .348 in two levels of Single-A. Prior to 2019, he was ranked by Baseball Prospectus as the 39th best overall prospect while being praised for “preternatural raw hitting talent.”
He dealt with more minor injuries the following few years, but still ranked as high the ninth overall prospect at MLB.com and fifteenth at Baseball America. Opinions of scouts obviously differed, but no one doubted his hitting ability. The question was how much power he would show and at what position.
However, since debuting in the 2020 postseason, just about nothing has gone according to plan. Kirilloff tore a ligament in his wrist in 2021 after starting out hot at the plate, tried to play through it and lost his ability to drive the ball. He underwent season-ending surgery, came back in 2022, and experienced the same soreness. He took some time off, went to Triple-A and raked for a month, his power seemingly back. 
He arrived back with the big club in June and continued to hit with a slash line of .306/.346/.469 in the 29 games following his promotion. He looked good at first and playable in the outfield. Had the Twins found their number five hitter for the next several years?
Not quite. A recurrence of the same wrist issue again ended his season, this time resulting in a much more invasive ulna shaving surgery. Now, his .694 career OPS is below average and often quoted by national outlets as reasons why he is a disappointment, but that’s pretty lazy analysis. 
After starting his career 0-for-14 in 2021, Kirilloff went on a seven-game tear, hitting for a 1.190 OPS before he sustained the original wrist injury. A lot of players have hot seven game stretches, and never become anything, but the 29-game stretch in 2022 cemented for me what he is with two wrists. Watch a single game of a healthy Kirilloff while factoring in his prospect pedigree, and its hard to come away thinking he is anything but a pure, line-to-line hitter with tremendous plate coverage.
That said, he is aggressive, and I doubt we’ll ever see him walk in ten percent of his plate appearances, healthy or not. He’s also not quick in the outfield, so his bat will need to carry him. But take a look at this swing, his second opposite field homer of that day, and tell me it won’t. In my player comps series, I compared his upside to a less patient Will Clark, but a more realistic comp may be Rondell White, a notoriously aggressive hitter who hit for high averages and decent power during his heyday with the Expos.
The caveat, of course, is we don’t know how Kirilloff’s wrist will respond to the bone -breaking surgery and plate implant completed only six months ago. One source of optimism is the one major leaguer who underwent the same procedure over forty years ago: Kirk Gibson.
After starring in baseball and football at Michigan State, Gibson was touted as one of the game’s premier power-speed prospects in the late 1970s but almost had his career ended before it began after he took a swing during his rookie season on June 16, 1980. He felt a pop in his wrist and immediately left the game. What happened next is documented in the book Detroit Tigers 1984: What a Start! What a Finish!
“Gibson woke up the next day in severe pain. The team doctors could not find a problem, so the wrist was put in a cast to rest it. The injury resulted in a truncated season in which Gibson hit .263 with nine home runs. In August, he visited the Mayo Clinic, where doctors found the problem: an abnormal development in his arm bones. They shortened his ulna bone and inserted a steel plate. Gibson was told that he would need eight months of rehabilitation. There were no guarantees that the wrist would hold up or that Gibson would ever play baseball again. The irony was that the wrist injury would not have affected his playing football.”
Gibson did reinjure the wrist in 1981 and sat out a month, but returned and hit .328 the rest of the year. The surgery was clearly a success, as Gibson hit .275/.358/.477 the rest of the decade, winning an MVP in 1984 and hitting perhaps the most famous home run in baseball history.
By all accounts, Kirilloff is doing well in his rehab, experiencing minor soreness but not the pain he felt in 2021 or 2022. Expecting him to turn into Kirk Gibson is probably foolish (or at least unfair), but at least there is precedent for a top prospect to rebound from such an extreme procedure and have a long, productive career,

Age: 22 (DOB: 1/10/2001)
2022 Stats (Alabama): DNP
ETA: 2025
2022 Ranking: NA

National Top 100 Rankings
BA: NR | MLB: NR | ATH: NR | BP: NR

What's To Like?
Video games have the ability to build players. You get so many attribute points that you can disperse into the creation of a player. Connor Prielipp might be a great example of that player you would build. 
 
Naturally, you'd love to probably make that perfect pitcher 6' 5' and 230 pounds, but you don't want to use too many of your points there, so you make him Prielipp's size (6' 2", 210) to avoid the stigmatism of only being six feet tall. And you make him left-handed because the lefty is always going to get a few more chances than a right-handed pitcher.
Then you start dabbling with pitch-mix. While a 100 mph fastball might be nice, you've realized it's not all about velocity anymore. So you bump that down to the low-to-mid 90s with deceptive movement because you're smart enough to know that the results will be better anyway. Since it's a video game and the only way you're really fooling anyone is with a breaking ball, you take all the attribute points you saved on your (sneaky good) fastball, and put them into your slider. With a speed that nears 90 mph and a spin rate over 2,900 rpm, you've equipped your build-a-prospect with an elite pitch. You're not crazy, so you kept some points to give your guy a change-up because if you're going to make it to The Show as a starter, you need that third pitch.
You also know that through development, you'll get plenty of time to work on the finer points of pitching - control, fastball command, and working on that third pitch. Your ceiling is super high. So high, in fact, that Baseball America has your prospect as their projected #1 starter of your team three years into the future.
That last part isn't even some trick. It's the truth. Connor Prielipp has the tools and potential to be the real deal.
What's Left to Work On
Yeah, so what I didn't tell you was you got extra attribute points because I saddled your build-a-prospect with a few less-than-ideal traits.
Connor Prielipp has a "grew up in the cold of the midwest" background. The track record of those types isn't long or great. While Wisconsin isn't a hotbed for pitchers, it's not a death wish either. There are actually three pitches in the Hall of Fame who were born in Wisconsin. (So what they were all born in the 1800s?) And Brad Radke too! It's entirely possible that baseball hasn't advanced to the point (yet) to realize that beer and cheese are actually what helps pitchers develop. But, whatever, Wisconsin is great. So are the people.
The biggest question mark about Connor Prielipp is his left elbow. Between the COVID shutdown and Tommy John surgery, Prielipp threw a grand total of 28 innings over seven starts since graduating from high school. At a minimum that will make you pause. At a maximum, you realize this prospect is almost entirely about projection.
Because while the tools are present, there is no track record; no sustained success. So there's literally nothing to not work on.
What's Next
To throw. In a game. To live hitters of another team.
Prielipp participated in Instructional League, which, to my knowledge has taken on a more development-type camp than game-play. But for all intents and purposes, there were no setbacks and he was full-go.
With the restructuring of the minor league system and what I'm sure will be a slow play to increase innings, it would be hard to believe that Prielipp will be throwing every five days all season. What would make sense is a slow build-up, staying in Ft. Myers after the teams break to keep working his way back. A piggyback approach where he throws three innings regularly and throws 60-65 innings between low-A and high-A over the course of the year would make a ton of sense. If the development stays on track and the arm stays healthy, maybe there's a discussion to open it up a little more for a late-season promotion to Wichita. 
The Twins can and absolutely should do everything they can to develop Prielipp into an important member of their big-league starting rotation, but that's going to require a ton of patience and good health.
And if those things happen, Prielipp isn't the Twins #7 prospect next year. He's going to be a Top 20 prospect globally.
Previous Rankings
Honorable Mentions
Prospects 21-30
Prospects 16-20
Prospects 11-15
Prospect 10 (Austin Martin)
Prospect 9 (Louie Varland) 
Prospect 8 (Jose Salas) 
 
   

Adding a right-handed bat has been a talking point for the Minnesota Twins all off-season. They somewhat addressed it by trading for Michael A Taylor, who hits right-handed but doesn't hit left-handed pitching exceptionally. With five left-handed hitters currently on the 26-man and switch hitter Jorge Polanco being better from the left side, this might be an issue for the Twins. Fortunately, I think this weakness might be overstated. 
Of the five left-handed hitters projected to get significant playing time, only two have a clear need for a platoon partner - Nick Gordon (career 54 wRC+ vs. LHP) and Max Kepler (career 73 wRC+ vs. LHP). Of the remaining hitters, Joey Gallo was abysmal against left-handers last season (23 wRC+ in 2022) but has handled them well throughout his career (104 wRC+ vs. LHP).  Both Trevor Larnach and Alex Kirilloff have even splits between lefties and righties, albeit small samples. The Twins should see if either former top prospect can hit southpaws at the Major League level before condemning them to platoon roles. 
Given some big-time moves this off-season, it would be easy to forget the Twins' first acquisition, Kyle Farmer. Perhaps it was undersold as a skill, but Farmer is one of the best hitters in baseball against left-handed pitchers.
In 2022, per FanGraphs, among hitters with 150 plate appearances versus left-handers, Farmer ranked 13th with a 157 wRC+ (ahead of Trea Turner, whom Tony La Russa intentionally walked in a 1-2 count vs. a lefty), 7th with a .948 OPS, 7th in wOBA at .404, and 9th in batting average at .309. There is a very strong case that Kyle Farmer is one of the ten best hitters in all of baseball versus left-handed pitching. 
So what would a potential lefty-killing lineup look like for the Twins? I mentioned that Kyle Farmer might be a top 10 hitter against lefties, but they also have two other hitters on that list in Byron Buxton (159 wRC+ vs. LHP in 2022) and Carlos Correa (168 wRC+ vs. LHP in 2022). If he had enough plate appearances, Ryan Jeffers would also be on there (161wRC+ vs. LHP in 2022). Against a left-handed starter, a potential lineup could be:
 
Byron Buxton CF 159 wRC+ vs. LHP Carlos Correa SS 168 wRC+ vs. LHP Kyle Farmer 2B 157 wRC+ vs. LHP Jose Miranda 3B 132 wRC+ vs. LHP Alex Kirilloff 1B 99 wRC+ vs. LHP (career) Ryan Jeffers DH 161 wRC+ vs. LHP Joey Gallo RF 104 wRC+ vs. LHP Christian Vazquez C 130 wRC+ vs. LHP Trevor Larnach LF 108 wRC+ vs. LHP (career)  The Twins' front office has also stated Farmer could see some time in the outfield. You could sub out either corner outfielder for Jorge Polanco (career 93 wRC+ vs. LHP), move Farmer to the outfield, and move Polanco to 2B. 
Michael A Taylor was also left off this lineup but figures to see most of his plate appearances against lefties. If the Twins wanted to DH Buxton or not have two catchers in the lineup, Taylor slides into CF. Taylor could also play in either corner outfield spot and spell any left-handed bats in the lineup. He would be a one-for-one swap in either LF or RF, but if Kirilloff needs a rest day, Gallo can cover 1B for that day.
If things start to fall apart, the Twins also have Kyle Garlick stashed in AAA, who's made a name for himself mashing lefties. The front office certainly thought that a right-handed bat would be useful, being mentioned with names like Yuli Gurriel, A.J. Pollock, and Andrew McCutchen . Still, I feel good about the current roster construction's ability to hit left-handed pitching and don't see this as something that needs to be addressed. 

The human brain is fantastic, but it doesn't have the power to consider everything. For example, before you read this sentence, you ignored that you could see your nose. Your mind had been ignoring that because it's not essential.
Cognitive psychologists refer to our brains' shortcuts as heuristics or cognitive biases. There's nothing wrong with them, but they're important to remember. They play a part in the way we watch sports.
There are popular shortcuts that many people know about, such as anchoring, where we tend to base our opinions on something more in a first impression than information we learn later. I won't name names, but some schmucks may still think Miguel Sanó could be an MVP based solely on his 2015 rookie campaign.
Confirmation bias leads us to latch on to evidence that supports our preconceived notions over evidence against them. Perhaps another person supports their disdain for Miguel Sanó because of his many strikeouts, ignoring his 500-foot moonshots.
If this stuff interests you, check out this very approachable list of a few dozen different biases and heuristics). There's a well-known bias that explains what I'm going to discuss, so I'll dip into developmental psychology for this discussion.
Two episodes from the last year or so stand out to me when I think about how our brains consume sports, not so much because of what happened, but because of people's reactions.
1. After a disappointing 73-89 2021 season, owner Jim Pohlad gave the front office an A+ grade. 
2. During the 2022 season, the Twins were not completely transparent about Byron Buxton 's schedule as he worked through knee pain.
In both episodes, fans and media were in the streets wailing and gnashing their teeth. Both instances were frustrating, but were they worth the consternation they received?
One of the points in an infant's growth that developmental psychologists have identified is the development of object permanence. If you've ever played peek-a-boo with an infant, you will have seen it in action. When the adult's face hides behind the hands, then reappears, the infant gets excited because, before the face reappears, they didn't think it existed anymore.
Infants struggle to understand that things they don't see can still exist. It is a bit wild to think about. Sometimes I'm, as an adult, convinced that I don't own buffalo sauce until my wife points out the bottle in the fridge and the bottle next to it from the last time I didn't think we had any.
But enough about buffalo sauce, how does object permanence pertain to what I'm talking about here?
In the first example, many fans took Jim's comments to mean that he genuinely had no issues with how the season went and was perfectly pleased. Because this was, for the most part, the amount of information fans had to go off of, it seemed like his complete thoughts on the topic.
We, as fans, are not privy to the conversations behind closed doors between an owner and upper management of the team. Heck, others in baseball operations aren't made aware of every conversation. We can forget that.
Instead, we latch on to the soundbite and forget that the group is constantly communicating for the other 364 days a year, working toward their shared goals. Because we don't see it, though, it doesn't exist.
Please don't read this as me saying that there shouldn't be criticism of the group. We sometimes pay too much attention to the tiny bits of interaction with which we are privileged.
The second example, regarding Bryon's knee, is a bit more egregious. Following his knee flair-up in Boston last April, his presence in the lineup was a bit scattershot, which was obviously frustrating for fans—if for no other reason than that fans want to see the best players play.
However, there was a common attitude that Byron's seemingly haphazard presence in the lineup was evidence that there was "no plan" for him to play. Why? Because the team did not make any statement on his status on a day-to-day basis.
In reality, the team was monitoring his knee and its pain and range of motion daily—adjusting whenever needed. It makes sense that no team personnel would make an official statement regarding his expectations because the situation was developing.
This lack of information led some fans to see the handling as incompetent, and they believed that the team lacked a plan for getting him back out there.
Instead, behind the scenes, Buxton spent hours every day working on getting his body ready to compete. His situation was fluid, and the team was adapting to new information daily. But we, as fans, had no explicit information telling us this, so instead, because we couldn't see it, our brains told us that nothing was happening.
Perhaps there's an argument that teams should be more forthcoming with information so that fans can make more informed reactions. Still, we would have blind spots that our brains would fill in.
It's important to remember that pro sports are filled with professionals working full-time jobs. The people on the other side of the glass spend their entire days making decisions about the team that we watch for four hours a day with a rain delay. They want to win more than you want them to (with minimal exceptions).
If we fall into the trap of believing that what we see in press conferences or public statements is the entirety of the situation, our opinions can become relatively uninformed.
Some people may be incompetent at their jobs and worthy of criticism, but that criticism should be based on what we can observe rather than the gaps our brains fill in. Remember that even if we don't see it, things are happening.

Last year, the Twins starting pitching ranked 20th in ERA, 18th in FIP, 23rd in K/9, and allowed the 11th most HR/9. If this team was going to improve from a .500ish team to a playoff team, starting pitching needed to be upgraded. Enter Pablo López.
In case you haven’t seen, All-Star 1B/DH Luis Arraez was traded to the Miami Marlins for López, INF Jose Salas, and OF Byron Chourio. Arraez hit .316/.375/.420 last year with a 131 wRC+. López was 10-10 with a 3.75 ERA and a 3.71 FIP. Arraez put up a 3.2 fWAR season compared to López’s 2.8. However, Arraez has an extra year of team control, which is why the Twins had such a high asking price for the 25 year old.
According to Baseball Prospectus, Salas is the 93rd-best prospect, and Chourio had a .838 OPS in the Dominican Summer League as a 17-year-old.
More than ever, pitching is at a premium in Major League Baseball. In the 2022-23 offseason, MLB teams usually receive more bang for their buck when signing position players instead of starting pitchers on the free agent market. As we have seen in the past few years, the current Twins front office prefers to trade for starting pitchers, and this premium on the free agent market could be the main reason.
Using Steamer’s 2023 projection system, we can see how each player projects in the 2023 season. In the age of analytics, the primary statistic that gets players paid is Wins Above Replacement. On average, the top 31 free-agent starting pitchers this offseason signed for $7.21 million per WAR accumulated. On average, the top 31 free-agent position players signed for $6.44 million per win. This shows how much pitching is valued in today’s game and how teams are willing to spend more money to get more pitching.
Like many professional sports executives, Derek Falvey was an economics major and knows that running a successful business or franchise is challenging. To get something, you must give something in return.
The first two economic principles you will learn in an ECON 101 class are scarcity and opportunity cost.
Scarcity means that the demand for a good (or, in our case, player) will always be greater than the availability of that good. In the current game of baseball, above-average pitching is more scarce than a first baseman with an OPS of around .800. Pitching is so valuable, and every team needs it. While Arraez is a great player and probably more valuable by WAR than López, he plays a position full of guys who can produce offensively, reducing his value. As we saw with the Twins last year, good pitching is scarce. López is not an ace by any means, but he would've led the Twins staff in pitching WAR (2.8) and innings pitched (180) in 2022. Above-average pitching isn't something the Twins have had much of in recent years, so López should significantly improve their pitching staff.
Opportunity cost is the second economic principle used in every business decision. Opportunity cost is the loss of potential gain from other alternatives when one alternative is chosen. Every dollar you spend on a player is a dollar you can’t pay another player. Every dollar you give Correa is a dollar you can’t spend on pitching, and vice versa. This Twins front office may see it advantageous to spend big money on position players, given the market premium for pitching.
The opportunity cost of trading Arraez is lower than one may think. You may get a slight decrease in production at first base from Jose Miranda and Alex Kirilloff, but both have shown that they are more than serviceable options. You are downgrading slightly in the infield and effectively upgrading from Bailey Ober to López while adding to the improved rotation depth.
Another reason the Twins could trade Arraez was their surplus of infielders. The Twins now have seven infielders on their 40-man roster. They are Correa, Jorge Polanco, Miranda, Kirilloff, Royce Lewis, Kyle Farmer, and Edouard Julien. Correa, Polanco, and Miranda are all but penciled into the opening-day lineup. Kirilloff has had some of the best batted-ball data in the league when his wrist has been healthy. Lewis looks to be a future difference-maker once he returns mid-season from his second torn ACL. Farmer is a utility infielder who is solid defensively everywhere and hits lefties well. Julien had a .931 OPS in AA last year and a 1.248 OPS in the Arizona Fall League across 96 plate appearances.
The only infielder among these seven who is worse defensively than Arraez is arguably Kirilloff, but he is first base only as a left-handed thrower. Arraez was only seen as a 1B/DH by the Twins' front office, significantly diminishing his value as a player.
Once Lewis is ready to go, and Brooks Lee gets to the majors, Miranda would move to first, creating an odd-man-out situation. Having so many infield options that could be plugged in and perform well is a good problem.
Economics always factor into these decisions that can make or break a franchise. Many decisions come down to opportunity cost and all the different routes front offices can take from offseason to offseason.
Nobody likes it when their favorite player is traded. It sucks. It can make it less enjoyable to watch a team, and Arraez is one of the most fun Twins players in the last ten years. But putting all personal bias aside, from a business standpoint, this move makes sense. You are giving up a player at a position where you have a surplus of options in exchange for a position with less talent.
Thank you for reading, and Go, Twins!

Advanced analytics love Byron Buxton . The eye test screams even louder. If you sit down next to a random person in Target Field who has never watched baseball on a day Lord Byron is in center field, ask them in the 5th inning, “Hey, who do you think the best player on the field is?” Anyone that can focus on the game will see the undeniability of Buxton’s baseball ability. 
Inconsistent playing time will never equal a .300 batting average at the Major League level with the stuff guys are throwing now. I felt it myself as a player dealing with wrist and hamstring issues. Being in one day and out the next, a week on and a week off, hitting big-league caliber stuff is based on comfort, rhythm, and timing. 
That comfort, rhythm, and timing are so fragile at the highest levels, and we saw what happened last year to a player with all-world ability. Byron looked like the MVP front-runner, but then the knee injury led to sporadic playing time, a strange playing time structure, and a dip in his performance at the plate. 
We got a flaccid Buxton last year. An ambivalent playing schedule alternating center field, designated hitter, and off-days isn’t suitable for Byron Buxton or his performance. The less time he spends in the outfield, the more it feels like we’re declawing a jungle cat. He was born to roam the outfield and steal bases, so why deny it? 
The one glaring thing that can and has denied Buxton and his ability is injury. Buxton is well worth his contract if he plays 80-90 games a season. So why not write him in the lineup every day? 
The risk is worth the reward, and 80 games of linear playing time in center field is more valuable than 90 of intermittent playing time. Baseball is not a dangerous sport. Some of his injury history can be attributed to happenstance. If the baseball gods smile on us, he will keep pace and play those 145-150 games, likely leading to an MVP or, at the least, a top-five finish.
We will get a much better Buxton if he stays on pace for 150 games and plays center field. If he gets hurt at the all-star break after playing 80 games, or plays 90 games sporadically and gets shut down in August, what’s the difference? I want us to unleash the glass cannon that is Byron Buxton. Even if it’s just by sheer good fortune, he will stay healthy eventually. 
Luxury is meant to be lived in. Keeping the Rolls Royce in the garage isn’t good for the engine. We have to let Buck buck!

One-year deals are an admission of fault. Either the market lacked quality, all trade routes fell through, or the internal options were so hideous that the team felt it necessary to promise a player pay for just a single year of their time. 
For the athlete, a one-year-deal represents one of two things: an opportunity to bounce back from a dreadful season, perhaps re-inflating one’s value before hitting the free market with a prettier sheen, or an acceptance of age, an understanding that father time’s inevitable march will render your talents useless. No team wants to lose out in a nebulous contract musical chairs, so the player Nelson Cruz’s it and agrees to one-year pacts before slithering away into retirement. Or he’ll sign with Pittsburgh.
Teams love diving into these waters. If the contract busts, they don’t have to be the poor souls legally stuck to an albatross, and their job security only takes the slightest hit. It was a good bet, after all. If the deal works, they look like genius, clairvoyant decision-makers who can reap the benefits of a productive player while raking in compliments. In a land where Xander Bogaerts signs for 11 years, that’s a reasonable pool to visit. 
There’s an emptiness to these deals, though. While professional sports is a business, we like to create connections with players, perhaps fooling ourselves into ignoring the massive amounts of money that exchange hands to allow their athletic ability to shine. When Max Kepler mans right field for the millionth time in a Twins uniform, our shared experience builds a connection, one that draws people closer to their romantic idea of a hometown sports team. What relationship will we have with Joey Gallo? How can we fully love a player destined to leave?
The player’s intentions become evident in this scenario. While Carlos Correa may become hands-on—which may not reflect well on him given the 2022 Twins’ record—other athletes may embody their hitman spirit, poisoning the clubhouse spirit with a selfish demeanor. 
The Twins, oddly, acknowledged this issue. Following the disappointing 2018 season, Derek Falvey admitted that their clubhouse grew a funky stink stemming from grouchy veterans on short-term deals. Logan Morrison and Lance Lynn were whiny and bad—that was what he wanted to say. 
In response to their problem, the Twins turned around and acted like they didn’t hear their own words. Nelson Cruz, Jonathan Schoop, and Martín Pérez signed up for a ride on the 2019 Twins bus—a booming home run tour of the United States—but that season appears fluky. A hyper-juiced ball? Two full seasons of below .500 play afterward? The only thing right about that year was the Yankees immediately spanking them the second October entered the equation.
Once COVID neutered the 2020 season, the Twins hopped back onto the ball, signing a litany of average talent to one-year deals, setting themselves up for a disastrous season the team is still reeling from. J.A. Happ almost threw 100 innings for the team. He made Dylan Bundy sound like a good idea.
The ultimate question is this: what’s the end goal? One-year contracts are supposed to plug holes, not dominate the team's structure; imagine a dam constructed out of duct tape. The guess is that the team is saving for some future move, but few long-term deals of that nature have come to fruition, and the only significant splash players—Josh Donaldson and Carlos Correa—are no longer Twins. Ehire Adrianza entered the batter’s box donning a Minnesota jersey more times than either of those players. 
They were able to nail down a Byron Buxton contract, although they seemed disappointed that they couldn’t trade him to Philadelphia for scraps beforehand. The Twins deserve credit for that signing, but his deal pays him $15 million a season—far less than the market rate for superstar talent. If anything, the agreement should fuel a spending spree: they have their star locked down for relatively little, add as many great players as you can.
Even with little tied down in their books, the Twins remained hesitant to drop enough money to coax Correa back home. There’s no purpose to their choices. They’re saving money for a future in which they save more money. Maybe they’re looking even further forward, but there’s no guarantee that free agents down the road—enjoy all that money, Rafael Devers—actually become available. 
Until that big, non-opt-outable deal occurs, they’ll remain in this loop, always saving for a someday that never comes.
 

With the calendar reading 2023, it’s hard not to think of spring training. And with a free agent class essentially picked clean and the trade rumors silent, it’s hard not to wonder who, exactly, is going to be on the Minnesota Twins come April. At least one source has run the numbers and is startled at the findings.
“Usually, I base these outlooks on the current roster, the farm system, free agents, the needs of other teams, and payroll,” said Aaron Gleeman, The Athletic’s Minnesota Twins correspondent and world record holder for most takeout duck sauce packets in one refrigerator (354). “The thing is, what always comes back is a major league roster. This time…”
Gleeman’s voice trailed off.
“Here, I’ll open the spreadsheet.”
Rather than columns of names, positions, ages, and salaries, the screen cut to black, a black as eternal and smothering as a starless winter night. From the laptop speakers came what at first sounded like a low moan. It soon escalated into a mournful, broken howl. The sound, not quite human, not quite animal, made clear it was no stranger to the depths of sorrow.
After 25-30 seconds, the sound ended. A picture of former Twin Chuck Knoblauch getting pelted with hot dogs at the Metrodome appeared, and Twins radio broadcaster Dan Gladden said, “This roster projection brought to you by Minnesota Rusco, since 1965.”
“I can’t explain any of this,” said Gleeman. “I mean, I’m as skeptical of the state of the roster right now as anyone, but I just kinda figured it would come back with Michael Wacha and Elvis Andrus or something, you know? The machine doesn’t usually do this.”
Fellow beat writers and columnists report similar troubling results.
“I had to file my first spring training preview for Sunday’s paper,” said the Star Tribune’s Phil Miller. “I sent it to my editors, and they said, ‘Ha ha, very funny.’ I asked them to clarify, and they said ‘This is the Book of Revelations, Phil.’ I checked the original document, and sure enough. Nothing about what I wrote on Royce Lewis, but a whole sidebar regarding pestilence.”
“I heard about Aaron’s issue so figured I’d just take a look at my own files,” said Betsy Helfand of the Pioneer Press. “All my notes are there, but they’re in Latin. The letters are blood red. I don’t know any Latin, and Alden Global Capital (the hedge fund that owns the Pioneer Press) doesn’t give us laptops that display color.”
The Twins open their spring training schedule on Saturday, February 25th.

Steve Cohen, the Mets owner, is stupid rich. He can afford to sign Carlos Correa as an afterthought.
All the other owners are also stupid rich. They could also afford to sign Carlos Correa as an afterthought. They opted out.
The Giants and Twins may end up being completely vindicated in exercising restraint. That plate in Correa’s leg may start malfunctioning like the one in Cousin Eddie’s head from Christmas Vacation. If he pees his pants rounding second because someone at Citi Field is microwaving salmon in the break room, the Mets can’t say they weren’t warned.
If Correa flames out, guess what? The Mets can still afford it. And they can afford to replace him with another generational talent at another astronomical price point.
This gets at the problem for the Twins, Giants, and everyone else, even the Pirates: They can all afford this, too. See above about being stupid rich. Their wealth is unimaginable. You really have no idea.
It’s not your money.
“We’ll lose (some number and a word that rhymes with Jillian) this season! We can't compete with New York!” Great. That’s a rounding error for them and a number they finessed to within an inch of straight up lying. If they want to impress me with real losses, invest in crypto.
If they decide that losing a fraction of their wealth on a professional sports team is not for them, the Phoenix Suns just sold for $4 billion. Buddy, there’s the door.
You don’t get points for not taking on risk. You don’t get games in hand for fiscal responsibility. You do get a reputation as a team that will do exactly this much to improve your roster, but not that much.
It’s not your money.
Every “small market” team is in a giant city with skyscrapers and bridges. The people who own that team own the skyscrapers and the bridges are named after the great-grandparent who got the money in the first place by inventing child labor or selling bayonets to a guy nicknamed “The God-Tyrant of the Eurasian Steppe” or something.
“The owners didn’t become rich by wasting money.” No, they became rich by being born into obscene wealth. Glad we cleared this up.
“The Pohlads are cheap” is inaccurate. “Most of the owners are content with the status quo” is accurate. The problem is, Steve Cohen is making the status quo look cheap. So I may have to revisit that “inaccurate” thing.
It’s not your money. It really, really isn’t.
The concessions at Target Field will be expensive regardless of who they sign this winter. Let’s say they decide to say "Bleep it" and start the rebuild now. You will still spend John Bonnes’ weekly craft beer budget on a hot dog and popcorn in 2023.
None of this is Carlos Correa’s fault. Anyone mad at him for taking the best deal (twice) instead of staying in Minnesota is a tiny baby. Yes, our lakes and amenities are nice, but I assure you that San Francisco and New York have water and restaurants too.
In conclusion, they should probably trade for some pitching. 
 

The Minnesota Twins drafted Byron Buxton 2nd overall in the 2012 Major League Baseball draft. One-time teammate Carlos Correa was the only man that went ahead of him. It took until 2015 for Buxton to make his Major League debut, and it wasn’t until 2017 that we saw a glimpse of what was to come.
Now fully appreciated as a top player in the game, the caveat has always been “when healthy.” Buxton has suffered a series of maladies over the course of his career, and that was the only reason Minnesota found themselves in an advantageous position. With free agency looming and a desire to avoid that by finding common ground through an extension, only the Twins were able to negotiate a deal with their star.
Make no mistake, Byron Buxton was going to get paid if he had hit the open market, the question was how much and who would the Twins be competing with. Minnesota has never swam in a pool with the sharks, and outside of Correa falling into their laps last winter, the big spenders have always far surpassed their offers. If any large market team wanted Buxton, it would’ve been incredibly hard for the Twins to keep him.
Derek Falvey and Thad Levine came up with a creative offer that would pay Buxton $100 million over the next seven years regardless. They then included incentives that allowed the superstar to bet on himself. In doing so, Buxton has a yearly opportunity to capitalize on his performance if he can remain on the field. Year one wound up being virtually equal value, even with the missed time, but it remains to be seen how it will go from here.
On the flip side, Steve Cohen’s deep pockets for the New York Mets just gave us some insight into what the frenzy may have looked like on the open market.
Talented outfielder Brandon Nimmo just agreed to an eight-year deal worth $162 million. He’s a year older than Buxton was at the time of his contract signing, and he’s experienced a similar level of injury concerns. The problem for the Mets is that they had to deal with other suitors, and although Nimmo isn’t the player Buxton is by any means, fighting over his services drove the price up.
Across seven major-league seasons, Nimmo has played all of them with the New York team that drafted him 13th overall from high school. In those seven seasons, he’s played more than 70 games just three times, and has surpassed 100 games only twice. In his corner was that 2022, just prior to signing a new deal with the Mets, he played a career high 151 games.
Not only is Nimmo’s $20.25 million annually higher than Buxton’s $14.29 million, but he also had the contract stretched a year longer despite being older. We have seen Major League teams spend a boatload over the course of the Winter Meetings, and despite setting records a season ago, it seems they’ll be crushed again this time around.
Injury is something teams certainly are hoping to avoid, but there’s a level of risk being taken on in every long-term deal. Health or otherwise, every player ages, and baseball is set up to stifle earnings while athletes may be at their best. Being paid for previous performance is part of the structure, and it’s the projection systems you’re hoping to hone in and have future performance outweigh eventual decline.
Maybe the Twins would have ultimately always been home for Buxton, or maybe he would have taken less money on the open market to stay where he’s been comfortable. What is certain, however, is that $100 million Buxton signed for is well below where the payday would have been had he gone to free agency.

It’s not always wise to judge fan morale from social media. If we did, though, it’d be easy to see that Twins Territory is unhappy with the current product. Why wouldn’t they be? The Twins haven’t won a playoff game since I was four years old. They haven’t won a playoff series since I was two. 
After a long and grueling rebuild post-2010, it looked as though the Twins were emerging from the pits. The 2019 team won 101 games behind – yes, Nelson Cruz – but also the core Twins fans had heard about for so long. Miguel Sanó was a monster in the second half, Max Kepler was Twins Daily’s team MVP, and Jorge Polanco was an All-Star. Byron Buxton and José Berrios also shined, furthering excitement for the future. 
 
To call the next page a letdown would be an understatement. The Twins won the Central again in the shortened 2020 season but once again bowed out early in a playoff sweep to the Astros. They haven’t recovered. In back-to-back seasons, the Twins have missed the playoffs and won less than 80 games. 
The picture of a treacherous 2021 is the faces of Alexander Colomé, J.A. Happ, Matt Shoemaker and Andrelton Simmons, all half measure additions who flopped beyond belief. It was similar in 2022, with Emilio Pagán, Joe Smith, Chris Archer and Dylan Bundy failing to make a positive impact. The short-term, marginal moves have exploded violently. 
It’s true that the Twins lost quite a few players to long-term injuries in both of those seasons. It’s also undeniable that the team’s rotation is the deepest it has been on paper under the Derek Falvey regime. The club does have some exciting young talent, including Jhoan Durán, José Miranda, Joe Ryan, Royce Lewis and a 25-year-old Luis Arraez. Brooks Lee is on his way and Louie Varland and Simeon Woods Richardson showed they are ready to help the cause. 
 
For all of those reasons, it’s imperative the Twins add impact talent this offseason. It’s time to find an identity and preferably one built around the star-studded pair of Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton. The Twins need winning ballplayers to lead the hopeful Buxton-Lewis-Lee-Miranda era. No more half measures. 
It’s difficult to feel much optimism about the oft-injured 2023 roster. It’s not hard to see it going well, though, if the team has a productive offseason and better health. The 2022 Twins, with Bundy and Archer stapled in the rotation, were tied for first place in the Central on September 4th. They led the division for much of the summer. This division is quite the opposite of intimidating, even with Cleveland’s special season and the addition of Josh Bell. 
The longer the Twins fail to win in the playoffs, the more fans doubt they ever will. It has to happen now. With Sonny Gray, Tyler Mahle and Kenta Maeda all entering free agency after the season, the Twins’ urgency to add long-term, impact solutions should be busting at the seams. 
 
The type of winter the Twins need requires them to get out of their comfort zone, both in ownership and in the front office. This is not a “desperate times call for desperate measures” situation but more of an opportunity to grow in the face of extreme uncertainty and doubt. 
The Twins need to fully commit to winning in 2023. No more half measures.

Jordan Balazovic was held to a mere 70 2/3 innings at the Triple-A level where he posted a mind-numbingly poor 7.39 ERA, by far the worst of his career. His peripheral numbers weren’t much better. Below is a comparison of how Balazovic has performed in many key stats over his last three seasons. (He didn’t pitch in 2020 due to the pandemic.)

Like many young arms with natural talent, Balazovic crushed the lower minors. However, as he ascended through the ranks, his performance has dipped, culminating in his forgettable 2022 season at Triple-A. It’s not uncommon for an individual’s stats to decline as he moves up the minor league ladder—each level consists of better and better players, after all—but Balazovic’s represent a relatively steep decline.
What stands out the most is the increase in hard contact he has surrendered, particularly last season. As he has only appeared in the minors, we don’t have publicly available Statcast data for Balazovic, but at a certain point average exit velocities and hard-hit percentages aren’t needed. His BABIP against has increased nearly 40%, while his line drive percentage has gone up 81% and his home runs per fly ball by a staggering 471% from High-A to Triple-A. In short, his pitches are getting hit harder and harder by better and better hitters.
Additionally, his walk rates have increased while his strikeout rates have simultaneously dropped from 2019 to 2022. Balazovic has never been one to have pinpoint command despite respectable strikeout numbers (see his K-BB%), and that lack of command has become more troublesome as the opposing batters’ patience has improved at each level. It would be interesting to see his opposing batter chase and whiff rates at all three levels—almost assuredly they would both decrease—but that data isn’t publicly available.
So that belies the question: What can Balazovic due to improve his stuff and get back on the top prospect hype train?
Well, I don’t know. At least not entirely. Pitching is a complex endeavor, both mentally and physically, so rarely is there a simple answer. But I do have a few ideas that my be helpful.
Potential Option #1: Increase elbow flexion at foot plant
This is something that the team of biomechanics wizards at Driveline has looked into quite a bit. Elbow flexion is measured by the degree of bend at the elbow. A fully extended elbow would have 0 degrees of flexion while a fully flexed elbow—biomechanically impossible—would be 180 degrees. Driveline has found that, on average, their most elite pitchers (i.e. fastest throwers) achieve 107 degrees of elbow flexion when the foot of their lead leg hits the ground. 

As seen in the picture above, Balazovic frequently fails to reach beyond 90 degrees of flexion, and at times seemingly doesn’t even reach 90 degrees. (Granted, it’s difficult to say with 100 percent certainty from the behind-the-mound camera angle, but this is the best option available to the public.)
Potential Option #2: Decrease posterior trunk lean (i.e. extension) at foot plant
Another Driveline favorite. They have found that most elite pitchers that train with them have, on average, negative 10 degrees of anterior trunk lean at foot plant. In English, that means that the best-of-the-best pitchers generally bend backwards slightly when their foot hits the ground. It’s difficult to put an angle on Balazovic without biomechanics tracking software, but eyeballing it, it seems as though he frequently leans too far back at foot plant. This can contribute to a number of flaws during the throwing motion, particularly making the arm “drag” behind, decreasing command.
Potential Option #3: Increase knee extension power throughout arm swing
All pitchers land with a certain degree of knee flexion (i.e. knee bend) at foot plant. The pitchers who through hardest are able to forcefully extend (i.e. straighten) the knee as they thrust their pitching arm forward. This creates a rigid lever that increases torque and, thus, pitch velocity. 
Last season, Balazovic seemingly struggled with this. Perhaps of note, his lead leg is his left and he was reportedly dealing with left knee discomfort all season. It’s possible that the lingering pain caused him to diminish his knee extension after foot plant, impacting his velocity and command.
Potential Option #4: Increase efficient separation between his trunk and pelvis
Watch the video below. The first frame resulted in a ball while the next three were strikes. See if you can parse a difference between Balazovic’s trunk and pelvis between the three pictures.
balazovic 1.mov
 Ok, now here’s a video with my notes.
balazovic 2.mov
When Balazovic is able to get his hips pointing toward the plate at foot plant, he’s able to efficiently rotate his torso and throw strikes. When he isn’t his arm lags behind and the result is more often than not a ball. 
In short, in order for Balazovic to improve and become a solid MLB pitcher, I would argue that he needs to not only tighten up his mechanics but improve his motion's consistency. His windup consists of many long levers and moving parts, both of which serve to reduce consistency (and, theoretically increase strain on the low back; he's struggled with back pain at time during his brief career). The options I've laid out above may help accomplish the opposite. 
 

This offseason Derek Falvey and Thad Levine are faced with a decision as to how much money they will offer Carlos Correa to remain in a Twins uniform. It probably won’t be the most money he gets offered, and it’s ultimately unlikely that he returns to Minnesota. Even if he does though, he’d join Jorge Polanco and Pedro Florimon as the only shortstops to start consecutive Opening Day games since Cristian Guzman in 2004.
Looking back at the list for Minnesota, it’s been a revolving door at one of baseball’s most important positions.
Prior to Correa, it was Andrelton Simmons, Polanco, Eduardo Escobar, Danny Santana, Florimon, Jamey Carroll, Alexi Casilla, J.J. Hardy, Nick Punto, Adam Everett, Jason Bartlett, and Juan Castro. It’s a group that features zero superstars, and even fewer regular talents. Over the past two decades, Terry Ryan, Bill Smith, and Derek Falvey have all but punted on continuity for one of the most important positions on the diamond. Signing Correa to a long-term deal is the only way to snuff this scenario out.
The Twins are faced with an interesting situation this offseason. Correa’s $35.1 million deal for 2022 was always looked at like a one-year agreement. Despite being a three-year contract, the player options following each of the first two years allowed the former Houston Astros superstar an opportunity to get paid. Yes, the Twins could’ve done that during the season, or immediately after, but his best bet was always to consult the open market.
Yes, Royce Lewis looked the part of an eventual superstar, but we’re dealing with a very small sample size. Austin Martin doesn’t appear to be a long-term answer at shortstop, and while Brooks Lee might be, he certainly isn’t ready to take over the position on Opening Day in 2023. Again, we revert back to Correa as the lone answer for continuity going forward.
As good teams go, so do their superstars. The Twins are again in a position to figure out where they turn. Another star starting pitching option is probably necessary, and if Correa isn’t the answer at shortstop, then someone else has to be. They shored up the centerfield position with Byron Buxton, even if he’s only available for a portion of the season.
For the Minnesota fan, you have to be hoping an emergence of the next Guzman happens sooner rather than later. To be fair, Guzman was not a good player. He posted an 80 OPS+, well below league average offensively. He held down the position until someone else was available, however, and was a mainstay during a period in which baseball was evaluated differently.
Now knowing how integral the up-the-middle positions are, it’s time for Falvey and Levine to get the spot right. If they aren’t going to pay Correa, there better be a rock-solid belief in one of the internal option's ability to be a multi-year starter into the foreseeable future.

Minnesota sports fans had to endure a long, 5-game weekend of dreadful Twins baseball, one that essentially zapped the squad's dwindling playoff hopes. After Monday afternoon’s 11-4 beatdown, anyone seeking solace from the Minnesota Vikings were met with a humiliating 24-7 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles on Monday Night Football.
Now, some local attorneys are fighting back.
“It’s outrageous that we just let the billionaires of Major League Baseball and National Football League schedule these games on the same day,” said Jacob Moynahan, a junior partner at Frederickson & Byron. “The foreseeable emotional damage this day would impart on innocent taxpayers and their guileless, doe-eyed children was avoidable. They simply chose to ignore it.”
Meyer is just one of the lawyers filing a class-action lawsuit against MLB, the NFL, Bally Sports North, and ESPN on behalf of Twins fans, Vikings fans, and anyone who was at a Buffalo Wild Wings for Boneless Wing Mondays and was exposed to the broadcasts.
“The Twins going into Cleveland with their season on the line is traditionally a bad idea,” said Robin Sherman, an attorney with Faegre Drinker. “The names ‘Ron Davis’ and ‘Jamie Quirk’ are burned into our collective memory, the trauma passed down from generation to generation.”
“You send the baseball team to Cleveland in mid-September,” said Moynahan. “Then you add Monday Night Kirk (a reference to Minnesota quarterback Kirk Cousins, whose performance in nationally televised games is often compared to watching your first childhood pet die from loneliness) to the mix? Malice. Negligence. High crimes.”
Sherman says they’re seeking damages in the millions of dollars.
“They say you can’t put a price tag on suffering,” said Sherman. “They also say the AL Central was an easy division to win, or that the Vikings turned a corner after whipping the Packers in Week 1. They say a lot of things. We demand compensation. We demand to be heard. We demand a Monday where we can watch Wheel of Fortune and get a good night’s sleep, where the sadness won’t find us.”
MLB, the NFL, the Twins, and the Vikings did not return calls seeking comment.
 

Derek Falvey and Thad Levine took over the Minnesota Twins front office six seasons ago. 2023 will be year seven. In that timeframe the club has been to the postseason three times while winning two AL Central division titles. There’s certainly some success there, but ultimately it comes with an 0-6 record in the postseason, which has accounted for one-third of the 0-18 futility during October.
There’s only a partial pass for the Twins to be had in 2022. The injuries were significant. 37 pitchers have been used for the first time in franchise history. Byron Buxton played injured from the jump, and time was missed by Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach, Max Kepler, and Jorge Polanco. All those things are fair to suggest that plenty has been working against Rocco Baldelli and his bosses. It’s also time to realize there’s no more room for error or excuses.
It’s safe to say that the front office, and the manager, aren’t looking for a pass. Both those in the clubhouse and those employing it are looking for a way to create a sustainable winner for the future. Falvey was brought in to develop a pitching pipeline similar to that of Cleveland. Levine is a smart general manager who has made some shrewd moves. Baldelli can run a clubhouse and has orchestrated difficult decisions. For all the good each party has done, the results now have to follow.
In year seven the Twins won’t, and shouldn’t be given the benefit of doubt. 2022 saw a franchise-high payroll that included the signing of superstar shortstop Carlos Correa. He fell into Minnesota’s lap and is likely gone over the offseason. It will be on the front office to appropriately name his replacement, and find ways to use that money. Plenty of the roster is penciled but almost all of it carries some level of uncertainty as to availability or expectation.
There’s no more room for acquisitions like Dylan Bundy or Chris Archer. Every offseason addition has to be made under the premise of creating the best roster possible, with nothing added just to fill the fringes. Management can’t dictate any more reclamation projects to play a substantial role, and when something doesn’t work similar to Emilio Pagan this season, the plug has to be pulled.
It’s more than fair to understand those running the Twins are an incredibly smart group with very good ideas. Both rooted in analytical outcomes and results based decision making, there’s probably never been a better group across the board. Ultimately though, the only thing that matters is the wins and losses, and they haven’t had enough of them.
Over the winter the front office and coaching staff will need to find ways to improve internally. That will mean staffers being replaced, coaches being changed out, and developmental areas being addressed. This should be the last go-round for the collective as a whole, and there’s no excuse to forgo bringing in fresh faces to help reach the ultimate goal.
There’s plenty of argument to be made that 2022 was never seen as the year to go “all in.” The trade deadline was navigated with a focus on the now, but a vision to the future as well. Fast forwarding to Opening Day 2023 and the future becomes now, with no more room for missteps. It’s time to come through on the vision, or change it entirely.
 

The purpose of this article is try and lay out, in no uncertain terms, the insurmountable magnitude of injuries and medical odysseys to which this year's Twins roster has been subjected. There are worthwhile conversations to be had about the way this team is managing players physically, evaluating new acquisitions, and handling rehab plans. But let's take a step back. 
When you acknowledge that, to a large degree, injury rates and recoveries are driven by luck and uncontrollable forces, I don't see much of a case for holding the manager or even the front office primarily accountable for what's gone down this season. 
There's no planning for, or adapting, to the way injuries have impacted this roster. There's no managing a bunch of backups and fourth-string options to sustained contention. 
I recognize this is very unsatisfying for those who demand accountability and want to see heads roll in the wake of such a disappointing turn of events. But when you remove emotion and try to see the situation objectively, I'm not sure how much more you could expect from the execs and decision makers dealt an unwinnable hand. 
Could they have done certain things better? Of course. Was it going to turn the unstoppable tide that has plunged this ship asunder? No.
This side-by-side comparison of the injured lists for Cleveland and Minnesota, here in the heart of the stretch run, kind of says it all. Sixteen Twins players on IL, including several vital cornerstones, compared to three Guardians. How do you realistically overcome that?
Let's review all these injuries that have torpedoed a promising season, and the context behind them. I've tried to order them from most devastating to least. 
Royce Lewis and Alex Kirilloff.
When people talk about the 2022 season and what's gone wrong, I feel like this calamity gets glossed over way too much. To me, it is the '1A' headline for all the team's unmet potential. This horrible twist of fate is what I would categorize as unthinkably disastrous.
Lewis and Kirilloff are two of the most important assets for this franchise. (I ranked them #3 and #4 during the offseason, behind Byron Buxton and Jorge Polanco – also both currently on IL.) They are at the ages and junctures of development where you'd expect them to start making a real impact the major-league level, and both showed that ability in brief flashes this year.
However, both of their seasons were ended in premature fashion. And in BOTH cases, major surgery was required to address the SAME injury that knocked them out for the previous season. (Did I mention this is essentially the third straight lost season for both?)
Kirilloff's wrist surgery from last year didn't take, so now he's undergone a more invasive, last-ditch operation to try and alleviate the debilitating issue. Lewis, during his first game back in what appeared to be a permanent call-up, tore the very same ACL he had reconstructive surgery on last year.
You can't make this stuff up. And what's most crushing about it all is that both of these absolutely critical players will inevitably be shrouded in doubt going forward. 
Can Lewis rebound from a second straight surgery on the same knee, especially when his game is founded on agility and foot speed? 
Will this somewhat experimental surgery for Kirilloff correct a problem that's been plaguing him for years now, sapping his most elite skill? 
Realistically, it's hard to feel much assurance on either front, and for that reason it's hard to feel optimistic about the Twins' immediate future. It really can't be overstated how disruptive these unforeseeable developments are for a front office trying to build a championship.
Tyler Mahle and Chris Paddack.
We all understand that Mahle and Paddack came with known injury risk to varying degrees. At the same time, so do a lot of trades. You've got to believe a club carefully reviews medicals and gains a level of comfort before pulling the trigger on significant deals like these ones. Yeah, it's easy to scream "incompetence" in hindsight. Too easy. There are a lot of top-of-field experts involved in these decisions.
Maybe, taking each player on his own, it shouldn't be all that surprising that Mahle or Paddack succumbed to (likely) season-ending arm injuries. 
But for both to do so? And not only that, but for it happen SO quickly in both cases? Paddack made it to his fifth start before his partially torn UCL gave way, requiring elbow surgery. Mahle lasted only three before his velocity nosedived and a mysterious shoulder injury threatened to end his campaign.
A combination of worst-case injury scenarios. Of course. And it really hurts, because the talent evaluation in both cases was sound. I genuinely believe that if healthy these would be the Twins' two best starters. Alas, much like Lewis and Kirilloff, their uncertain futures complicate the front office's planning going forward.
Paddack will be coming back from a second Tommy John surgery. Who knows what's going on with Mahle but it seems impossible we'll go into the offseason feeling confident about his shoulder, with one year of team control left.
Byron Buxton.
Look, we know injuries for Buxton have to be expected and accounted for. They're baked into his legacy, and his new contract. Still, this year the gravity of his durability issues came into sharper focus than ever, primarily because it constitutes a "healthy" season for Buxton. 
He's already made the second-most plate appearances of his career. He avoided the injured list until August. He still might get to 100 games!
And yet, that old injury phantom has conspicuously followed Buxton all year, ever since he came up slamming his hand into the dirt at Fenway one week in. Despite his mightiest efforts, he couldn't outrun his eternal tormentor, and now this season is wrapping up like so many before it: Buxton on the sidelines, watching his team fall short. 
I guess the point of this blurb is not so much about the micro misfortune of injuries sabotaging another year for Buxton, but more an observation about his appropriateness as face of the franchise: 
The Twins to lost their way into drafting one of the most talented, electric, special players in modern baseball history who also happens to be the (?) single-most injury prone at that level.
Ryan Jeffers and Trevor Larnach.
I group these two together because while neither injury was totally unforeseeable – catchers get hurt a lot by nature, and Larnach was also sidelined for much of last year – they definitely qualify as bad luck, and both absences led to huge drop-offs in terms of backup plans.
Jeffers was having a reasonably solid season before suffering a thumb fracture in mid-July, which may cost him his entire second half. Larnach developed a sports hernia requiring surgery in mid-June, and still hasn't made it back yet. In both cases, the path to returning has arduously dragged well beyond original estimates, and continues to do so – another unfortunate commonality.
With Jeffers sidelined, the Twins were left at catcher with the husk of Gary Sánchez and trade acquisition Sandy León, who'd been toiling in the minors for Cleveland. It's been ugly, much like the outfield in the absence of Larnach, Kirilloff and Buxton.
Bailey Ober and Josh Winder.
Winder is no longer on the injured list, but I view him much as the same as Ober: a homegrown talent, 25 years old and coming off a great season, clearly a core part of the Twins pitching plans. Granted, they both had their own warning labels coming into this season, but no clear red flags. 
As it turns out, both will end up maxing out around 50 innings pitched in the majors – big setback seasons for developing pitchers who will now be challenged to rebuild their workloads once again. In each case, the injury seems not well understood. Ober went down with a groin injury first framed as minor that never seemed to heal. Winder's had recurring bouts with an impinged, but structurally sound, shoulder dating back to last year.
On their own, these are losses you could withstand, which is why they're relatively low on this list. But combined with all of the above? Getting almost nothing from Ober, or Winder, or Paddack, or their marquee deadline acquisition Mahle? How do you cobble together a decent rotation through all of that?
The only Twins starting pitchers that have truly managed to stay healthy are the guys they signed cheaply to fill the fourth and fifth spots in the rotation. 
Jorgé Alcala and Matt Canterino.
These two are lumped as high-upside relievers who could have had transformative impacts on the Twins bullpen, but instead fell victim to essentially worst-case scenarios with their elbows. Alcala missed all of this season; Canterino never made it to the majors and will likely miss all of the next one.
Maybe these blows would've been easier to sustain if some of the relief contingency plans held up. However...
Danny Coulombe, Cody Stashak, and Jhon Romero.
None of these three were projected to be pivotal late-inning weapons, but they were all viewed as important parts of the depth mix. Coulombe and Romero were on the Opening Day roster, and Stashak a late cut. All suffered season-ending injuries early on. 
Kenta Maeda and Randy Dobnak.
I have these two at the bottom because, unlike everyone above, no one realistically expected much out of them this year. But it would have been nice to get something, *anything* from either. Both have been derailed so much for both that it's easy to forget that, coming out of the 2020 season, we were envisioning each as key long-term pieces for the pitching staff.
You can look back now and say, "Well the front office shouldn't have been planning around these guys." Or they shouldn't have traded for Paddack or Mahle and the associated risk. Or they shouldn't have committed to Buxton as a centerpiece, or they should have better medical personnel and training philosophies, and so on.
There may be truth to these things. But you bet on players you like, and you accept a certain amount of risk. Otherwise, you end up where the previous front office was for so long, treading water in a pointless middle ground.
At the end of the day, injuries happen. They're never as predictable or controllable or correctable as people want to believe. Sadly, this scourge has been especially prevalent for the Twins and, more sadly, a lot of these health woes are going to carry forward in terms of their implications.
I firmly believe the front office built a team capable of winning the division this year, and Rocco Baldelli was the guy to lead that group. For a while, it was all coming together as planned. 
Unfortunately, the current team barely resembles what was built.

Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 9/5 through Sun, 9/11
***
Record Last Week: 1-6 (Overall: 69-70)
Run Differential Last Week: -15 (Overall: +13)
Standing: 3rd Place in AL Central (4.5 GB)
Last Week's Game Results:
Game 133 | NYY 5, MIN 2: Homers from Marwin, Judge Sink Twins
Game 134 | NYY 5, MIN 4: Offense Stymied by Yankees Bullpen
Game 135 | NYY 7, MIN 1: Nothing Left in the Tank for the Nightcap
Game 136 | MIN 4, NYY 3: Twins Finally Scrape Out a Win in NYC
Game 137 | CLE 7, MIN 6: Late Rally Can't Overcome Bad Bundy
Game 138 | CLE 6, MIN 4: Another Early Hole Proves Too Deep
Game 139 | CLE 4, MIN 1: Overmatched Twins Go Quietly in Sweep
NEWS & NOTES
A week ago the Twins found themselves precariously perched atop the division. "While they're still tied for first out of sheer circumstance" I wrote in the lede, "this team is not in a good place."
Boy, that was putting it mildly. Seven long days later, the Twins are now below .500 and buried in third place. Their chances of making the postseason, according to FiveThirtyEight, have sunk to 8 percent.
Sigh.
The past week saw a lot of roster movement on the pitching staff, with the usual drumbeat of churn and burn remaining steady here as the end draws near. A quick rundown:
Cole Sands was activated from his injured list stint on Thursday, supplanting Austin Davis from the roster. In fact, Davis was designated for assignment, one day after giving up three runs on four walks in one inning against the Yankees. Another brilliant waiver pickup by this front office. Speaking of waiver pickups, right-hander Jake Jewell – claimed from Cleveland in mid-August – was outrighted from the 40-man roster. He never got a chance with the Twins. STILL speaking of waiver pickups, Jharel Cotton will likely get another chance with the Twins, having been re-added to the 40-man and active rosters. Minnesota needed the additional pitching depth with Chris Archer landing on the IL due to pectoral tightness that forced him out of Saturday's game.  In slightly positive news, the Twins did get Josh Winder back following his time spent on the IL, rehabbing, and then at Triple-A. He gave up a couple of solo homers but mostly looked solid in his return to action. Sands was optioned to make room for Winder.
HIGHLIGHTS
Louie Varland, take a bow.
The reigning Twins minor league pitcher of the year was called upon for his big-league debut in the toughest of circumstances on Wednesday: at Yankee Stadium, against an eternal franchise tormentor, in the midst of a tight pennant race. Despite the immense pressure, Varland came through in flying colors, allowing just one run through five innings before being pulled midway through the sixth.
The runner he left behind scored on a home run off Griffin Jax, so Varland finished with this nevertheless brilliant line: 5.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 7 K. He returned to the minors later that day, having been called up as a 29th man for the doubleheader, but we'll presumably see the right-hander again soon.
Varland's arrival will go down as a signature moment in this season, but likely one that came too little and too late from a team contention perspective. The same can be said about Carlos Correa emerging at last with the game-changing clutch hits we've all been waiting for. 
The shortstop was instrumental in securing a single victory at Yankee Stadium, with his two-out, two-run homer in the eighth inning on Thursday proving to make the difference in a 4-3 win. The following night, Correa went 4-for-5 with four RBIs in trying (futilely) to will the team past Cleveland.
Sadly, because Correa's teammates have done so little to support the cause, his September heroics will likely end up doing more to stoke his impending free agent market than thrust the Twins back into contention.
LOWLIGHTS
If the previous weekend's 13-0 dismantling in Chicago was the lowlight of the entire season – and I'd argue it was – Tuesday's tragic mess in New York has to be a close runner-up. 
Despite getting a brilliant start from Varland in his debut, and taking a 3-0 early lead, and throwing all of their best relievers, and having endless opportunities to break the game open ... the Twins fell in 12 innings. Their absolute lack of fortitude was as glaring as it has been all year. 
It really felt like the Yankees didn't even care much to win the game, trotting out a backup-filled lineup and lower-caliber arms, while the Twins were furiously throwing everything they had – their six best relievers, pinch-runners, pinch-hitters – and still they couldn't find a way to squeak it out.
Max Kepler, who struck out looking as a pinch-hitter with two outs and two on in the eighth that night, has been completely ineffective for several months, and it snowballed last week as he battled through a hip injury that ultimately shut him down on Sunday. Kepler struck out in two of his three pinch-hit appearances and popped out behind the plate in another. On Saturday he hit cleanup and went 0-for-5.
With their season rapidly slipping away and so many key fixtures sidelined, the Twins have been desperate for Kepler to step up – left with no choice but to write him into the middle of their decimated lineup against right-handed pitchers. Kepler has done the opposite of answering the call, with the worst WPA on the team since August 1st. It's not lost on me that he's been playing through things physically, but those excuses feel empty for a player whose unwavering, deeply flawed approach keeps him endlessly bound to mediocrity, while those around him grow and progress. 
Maybe the new rules limiting defensive shifts in 2023 will prove to be a salve for Kepler's long-stagnating game. To be honest I'm not super interested in finding out. 
Kepler contributed to a roundly horrible performance from the Twins' beleaguered outfield in another sparse offensive week that saw the club score more than four runs just once in seven games:
Kyle Garlick, also playing through pain while being forced into more action against righties than anyone would like, went 3-for-24 with 11 strikeouts. Zero walks, zero extra-base hits, zero RBIs. Like Kepler, he probably shouldn't even be on the field. Jake Cave's moment as catalyst and hype man proved short-lived. He managed a double and two singles in 23 at-bats. Gilbert Celestino produced four singles in 19 at-bats. His OPS has cratered to a season-low .623 as he's ceased to present any kind of meaningful threat at the plate. In an ideal world he'd be learning how to hit in Triple-A. With the exception of Varland, pitching was really no better over the past week, surrendering 37 runs and 13 homers in seven games. You of course had the expected lapses from Dylan Bundy (4.2 IP, 7 ER vs. CLE) and Archer (2 ER allowed in 2 IP before exiting Saturday's game). Other struggles were more concerning – like those of Jorge López, continuing to exhibit shaky confidence and command ever since being acquired, as well as the rookie starter they hoped to entrench as a rotation cornerstone.
Almost every time he faces a lineup with power, we're reminded why the prospect of Joe Ryan starting a playoff game is so foreboding. That's becoming less of an immediate concern, but still, the Twins will be positioned to depend heavily on Ryan again in 2023, with Tyler Mahle in total limbo, Chris Paddack rehabbing into the season, and Kenta Maeda returning from a lost season at age 35. 
Wednesday night's game typified the new norm for Ryan, who nibbled around the zone and issued four walks before (former Twin!) Isiah Kiner-Falefa – owner of a .328 slugging percentage coming into the game – delivered a back-breaking grand slam in the fourth inning on a first pitch that must've looked like a beach ball. 
After looking so cool, collected, and in control early on, Ryan now seems to be on the defensive more often than not, trying keep hitters off his low-90s fastball with secondary stuff that just hasn't been very effective.
In the first two months Ryan posted a 2.28 ERA with three home runs allowed in eight starts (0.6 HR/9). Since the start of June, he has a 5.01 ERA with 17 home runs allowed in 15 starts (1.9 HR/9).
That's a trend that has reflected the team at large: strong front-runners early on, progressively running out of steam to the point where they now barely look competitive against quality opponents. There's technically time left to turn it around, but why would anyone believe?
TRENDING STORYLINE
Trailing by 4 ½ games in the AL Central with 23 left to play, the Twins are mathematically still alive, and they actually have a path to making up rapid ground with 11 games in those remaining 23 against the two teams ahead of them. 
Given the current state of the team, it feels nigh impossible to envision such a turn of fate, but stranger things have happened. For what it's worth, there is still a possibility of the roster getting a bit stronger during these last few weeks. Winder looked decent in his return on Sunday. Bailey Ober rejoining the rotation is imminent after a 66-pitch rehab tune-up at St. Paul on Sunday. 
Jorge Polanco should be back this week. Trevor Larnach, Ryan Jeffers and Byron Buxton are all still ostensibly expected to return before year's end, although time is running out for them to make any kind of meaningful impact. 
LOOKING AHEAD
As poorly as they've played, and as fatal as the past week might've felt to any lingering hopes for the Twins, there's a pretty feasible scenario that gets them back within striking distance in the next eight days: 
Twins sweep the Royals at home. Cleveland drops two of three at home against the Angels while the White Sox split a home two-game series against Colorado. White Sox beat Guardians in a makeup game on Thursday. Twins take four of five from Guardians in Cleveland, while White Sox lose two of three in Detroit. It's a series of events that would leave the division looking like this with a little over two weeks to go:
1st: CWS: 75-71 1st: MIN: 75-71 3rd: CLE: 75-72 (0.5 GB) This would put the Twins in front of Cleveland and tied with Chicago, still holding six head-to-head matchups against the latter. Of course, you might tell me it's not especially feasible for Minnesota to pull this off, given how they've looked, and I'd agree. But the fact remains that the opportunity is still there. Even if you picture a slightly less rosy scenario, it's not unthinkable the Twins are somehow in the thick of it a week from now. Which is incredible to think about.
TUESDAY, 9/13: ROYALS @ TWINS – LHP Kris Bubic v. RHP Joe Ryan
WEDNESDAY, 9/14: ROYALS @ TWINS – RHP Zack Greinke v. RHP Sonny Gray
THURSDAY, 9/15: ROYALS @ TWINS – LHP Daniel Lynch v. RHP Dylan Bundy
FRIDAY, 9/16: TWINS @ GUARDIANS – TBD v. RHP Shane Bieber
SATURDAY, 9/17 (G1): TWINS @ GUARDIANS – TBD v. LHP Konnor Pilkington
SATURDAY, 9/17 (G2): TWINS @ GUARDIANS – TBD v. TBD
SUNDAY, 9/18: TWINS @ GUARDIANS – RHP Joe Ryan v. RHP Cody Morris

The above graph plots the results for every major league team against the five opponents currently on pace for more than 95 wins: Yankees, Astros, Dodgers, Braves, and Mets. The x-axis is win percentage in those games and the y-axis is run difference per game. A few notes:
The Twins were far and away the worst team in the league against this set of teams with a 0.11 win percentage, going 2-16. Those losses were well-earned, with an average run difference of -3.67. In-division foes Detroit, Cleveland, Kansas City, and the White Sox will have played an almost identical schedule to the Twins, so comparisons between them are particularly appropriate. Even the lowly Tigers and gutted Royals have outperformed the Twins against the class of the league. The Twins' current deficit in the division can be attributed to their performance in these games. By contrast to the Twins' 2-16, the Guardians are a respectable 6-10 and the White Sox are 7-10. A similar performance from the hometown nine would have the Twins comfortably in first place in the AL Central. Luckily, none of the power five are divisional foes, so the Twins will still have a chance to squeak into the playoffs. We are all hoping for another shot at the Yankees or Astros in October. Right?

At the Major League Baseball level, most things are about the process working to dictate ideal results. Whether you view the concept of analytics as annoying or not, the reality is that they represent an application of information. When it comes to pitching, hitting, or virtually anything else on a baseball diamond, results are calculated by statistics derived from outcomes.
Every time that Minnesota Twins manager Rocco Baldelli steps onto the field and travels to the pitching mound hand-wringing ensues. Of course this is often because the removal of a starting pitcher is happening in the 5th inning or earlier. It’s not something done on gut feeling or through a knee-jerk reaction, but instead a reflection of what makes sense based on actual results.
Four pitchers have made the vast majority of starts for the Twins this season. Among them, Sonny Gray is the only one you would even consider for a top spot or two in a good rotation. Joe Ryan, while flashing signs of solid stuff, more closely resembles a number three or four pitcher. He’s been pulverized by teams above .500 all season long, and while that’s to be expected given his age and exposure, it doesn’t excuse the reality.
I have been vocal in that Dylan Bundy seems to be found value for Minnesota considering his output in spite of the predictive metrics. He is going to regress. Everything about his outcomes suggests regression will hit him hard. What the Twins have done is dance around having that reality smack them in the face to this point, and pitching him any more than he has would be playing with fire. Chris Archer is that fire that routinely burns both his manager and the bullpen beyond three or four innings. His stuff has been good, but the wheels fall off and things go awry.
Asking pitchers to face a lineup more than two times is not a bad idea, in fact it’s one that should be welcomed. In operating that way however, you need to have a stable of pitchers capable of completing that feat. There’s absolutely no argument to be made that the Twins had those arms when the season started, and now 36 pitchers into the year, they couldn’t be further from that being a possibility.
If there’s criticism to be had, it’s towards Derek Falvey and Thad Levine in failing to adequately supplement their starting staff. Major League Baseball as a whole has trended towards shorter starts for quite some time. Through the first handful of months this season, the average start was lower than five innings for the first time in history. With that reality, you’re effectively asking managers to massage a bullpen for something like four innings on any given night. That requires both high-end arms, as well as solid depth.
Minnesota had no arms capable of going deep into games when the season started, and their answer to a bullpen needing supplemental capabilities was a 38-year-old sidearmer in the form of Joe Smith. It’s great that rookie Jhoan Duran has been amazing, but it’s also been absolutely necessary for the Twins to stay afloat. His win probability added leads the league because of the weight being carried on his shoulders, and Baldelli wasn’t provided any additional answers until August. Jorge Lopez has regressed, and Michael Fulmer has been mediocre. Yes, Griffin Jax is a nice development, and it’s great Caleb Thielbar returned from coaching Division 2 baseball, but what are we doing here?
At the end of the day, the question as to why the Twins don’t allow starters to go deeper into ballgames really becomes why doesn’t Minnesota have better starting pitchers. It’s a process to develop arms, and very few will ever be a true ace. It’s also incredibly difficult to spend dollars on arms with 29 other teams vying for their services, and even less talent finding you desirable.
 

In order to beat out Cleveland (leading the division by one game entering Friday), and Chicago (trailing Minnesota by a game and a half), the Twins will need contributions from across the roster. But they'll really need their cornerstone stars to step up and lead the way. 
I took a shot at ranking the 15 players who are most critical to the team's success in these final 46 games.
1. Luis Arraez
If the Twins are gonna win this thing, they need the offense to do the heavy lifting. Even in a best case scenario, the pitching staff will probably only be good enough to play a supporting role. Arraez is – as they say – the straw that stirs the drink. He might not be as explosive or electric as some others on this list, but he's been the most consistent hitter on the team all year long. Continuing to grind down opposing pitchers day in and day out will be paramount to the Twins playing consistent baseball. 
2. Carlos Correa
Is the best from Correa yet to come? That's what the Twins are banking on. Correa's been fairly underwhelming for much of the summer but we all know what he's capable of – it's been demonstrated time and time again. The past couple series have offered hopeful signs that the shortstop is beginning to catch fire; he went 8-for-19 against the Angels and Royals, although seven of those hits were singles, and we're still waiting on some big signature moments. Now is the time for Correa to make good on the front office's $35 million investment.
3. Byron Buxton
At full strength, Buxton would be atop this list, but the knee injury that has continually limited his performance and availability figures to be a reality the rest of the way. Buxton's impact is greatly reduced when he's hitting well as a DH as opposed to hitting amazingly as a center fielder. Even still, his elite power and clutchness will be vital. The Twins need him on the field as much as is reasonably possible. 
4. Tyler Mahle
The front office spent big to acquire Mahle at the deadline for a reason: they needed a frontline starter who could go toe-to-toe with high-octane lineups. The presence of a similar caliber starter in Sonny Gray somewhat lessens the importance of Mahle in isolation, but both are key, which is why they're right next to one another below the team's top stars. Needless to say, the outlook for Mahle's shoulder weighs heavily right now. 
5. Sonny Gray
Gray is arguably a slight step behind Mahle in terms of quality and upside, but they are more or less interchangeable, and about equally important on their own. If this analysis were extended into the postseason, where the impact of top starters is heightened, these two might be #1 and #2 on my list.
6. José Miranda
Some will surely argue that I've got Miranda too low. There's no doubt he's crucial to this lineup, and has been the offense's savior for the past couple months. But realistically, we've got to expect a bit of regression, and the team's dependence on Miranda will hopefully be lessened by the top three carrying the load, as well as bats like Trevor Larnach and Kyle Garlick potentially returning to the fold. 
7. Jhoan Duran
Another guy who would've ranked much higher on this list before the trade deadline, which speaks to why the front office's moves were so very necessary and so important. Duran remains the team's best reliever – and one of the best in the league – but the team's hopes are not quite so singularly hinging on his continued health and effectiveness with Jorge López and Michael Fulmer in the fold. 
8. Jorge Polanco
He's firmly fifth in the pecking order in terms of offensive contributors, but Polanco is a veteran fixture who's shown the ability to get hot and go on torrid runs to propel the offense. I'm not necessarily expecting one now, given that he's been steadily good-not-great this year and is currently dealing with a knee issue, but as a guy who will bat at the heart of the order everyday (if healthy), Polanco is obviously someone the Twins need to perform. 
9. Jorge López
Closers are critical during a stretch run. That's a lesson Twins fans have learned the hard way before. (Sorry LaTroy.) López has a unique ability to impact outcomes given his role, though I suspect Duran will routinely pitch in more decisive spots. Obviously López could totally derail things if he blows a few more saves, but the presence of other high-leverage options gives Rocco Baldelli a fallback should trust be shaken.
10. Max Kepler
This feels like a big moment for Kepler. He's been with the Twins for seven seasons. He's had his ups and downs, with some legit high points, but has been a complete zero in the postseason (0-for-15 in the 2019/20 ALDS). Following a good start this year, he's fallen into a dire midseason lull, slashing .199/.281/.290 since the end of May. Kepler could really put a new spin on his legacy here by flipping a switch and making a big positive difference the rest of the way. Of course, I don't expect it, based on his recent track record, and that's why he's 10th on this list despite his potential for two-way impact.
11. Joe Ryan
I've cooled quite a bit on Ryan, who has a 4.73 ERA/4.63 FIP since the end of April, and hasn't gotten through six innings in a start since July 1st. He's a mid-rotation starter with strikeout stuff and a propensity for giving up hard contact. The righty is clearly not on the same level as Mahle or Gray, but also a clear cut above Dylan Bundy and Chris Archer, making him integral to the rotation's sustainability – especially if Mahle has to miss time.
12. Caleb Thielbar
After seven appearances this year, Thielbar had a 15.19 ERA. It doesn't get much worse than that. Since then he has a 2.43 ERA and 51-to-11 K/BB ratio in 37 innings. It doesn't get much better than that. His last two appearances have demonstrated Thielbar's ability to play the fireman role, and right now he's got more trust than any Twins reliever not named Duran or López. He also brings the unique ability to neutralize lefty hitters, who have a .499 OPS against him this year.
13. Michael Fulmer
Fulmer is a very solid setup man, and having him fourth in your bullpen hierarchy is a major luxury. You've got to have guys who can reliably bridge the gap from the middle to late innings if you want to rattle off wins, and thus Fulmer's veteran stability is very valuable. 
14. Griffin Jax 
Everything stated about Fulmer above basically applies to Jax, except that he's a rookie who's been struggling lately. Given how much the Twins lean on their bullpen for innings, they simply need all of these relievers to get it done in the final weeks. One thing I really appreciate about the deadline deals is that they took some pressure off of Jax, who's still acclimating in his first year as a full-time reliever.
15.  Nick Gordon
Circumstances have pushed Gordon into an everyday role, more or less – and he's been capitalizing, with a .309/.356/.489 slash line since the start of July. That's as good as anyone could have reasonably expected from Royce Lewis or Alex Kirilloff, whose voids the fellow first-rounder has been left to fill. If he can keep doing so, he'll be an instrumental factor in the team's success.
 

As the Minnesota Twins closely monitor the condition of Byron Buxton’s knee, at least one fan thinks the whole situation has gone too far.
“There’s a difference between hurt and injured, and sometimes you have to play hurt,” said Charlie Johnsrud, 54, a real slob. “I think the Twins know this, but they’re coddling him a little bit.”
The Bloomington-based call center manager, who has called in sick to work because of a hangover twice in the last three months, claims it’s unusual for a team’s superstar to take so many days off.
“I just think, given the financial commitment the team made to him, that he has to put his big boy pants on,” said the twice-divorced goon, who has a pair of sweatpants he calls “my going-out ones.”
Johnsrud, who would drink the dipping sauce from Raising Cane’s out of a pint glass if people would just be cool about it, thinks Buxton’s patellar tendinitis is as mental as it is physical.
“He’s had a ton of injuries in his career, so he’s probably paranoid,” said Johnsrud, whose unused Lifetime Fitness membership is entering its fourth year. “He needs to get out of his head and onto the field, just saying.”
With the team out of first place for the first time in months, he thinks the urgency of the moment demands action.
“When I threw out my back, I still had to go to work,” said Johnsrud, who actually took two weeks off to recuperate after his cat scared him while he was on the toilet. “Sometimes you gotta do what you gotta do. They need all hands on deck.”
Johnsrud, who attacks a Culver’s ButterBurger with a ferocity not usually seen outside the animal kingdom, still considers himself a Buxton fan.
“I love the guy, I even bought a Buxton jersey last year. When he’s healthy he’s a beast.”
Johnsrud could not confirm if the significant stain on the jersey was ketchup or spaghetti sauce, but agreed that it looks like Germany.
 

Following the Twins' 9-2 series opener loss to the Toronto Blue Jays, the team hosted country music artist Cole Swindell. The vast majority of the game’s sellout crowd stuck around for the show, free for fans who had a ticket to the game. Fans who bought a special ticket package watched the concert from the infield dirt directly in front of the stage, located in the grass behind second base. Target Field staff set up flooring so that fans walking onto the field from the third baseline did not trample the grass, and fencing kept the fans off the infield and outfield grass. 
To pull this concert off, staff had to spring into action moments after the last out. The Twins said the concert would start 15 minutes after the game.
Almost immediately after the last pitch, the left field gate opened up, and out rolled a readymade stage. The Blue Jays bullpen was still walking across the field to leave when a grounds crew cart and a team of staff members began to move the stage across the field.
Though the stage was pre-assembled and instruments like the drum set and keyboard were already sitting on top, stagehands had some more setup to do once the stage was actually in place. By the time the show started, it was 10:45 p.m., about 30 minutes after the game ended. The fans did not seem to mind. 
Just as the Twins promised, Swindell played a 75-minute set, mixing in his older hits with newer ones from his most recent album “Stereotype,” which came out in April. He also played several songs he wrote for other artists, like Florida Georgia Line's "This Is How We Roll," which he co-wrote with country music artist Luke Bryan. Fans swayed and put their cell phone lights in the air when Swindell performed "You Should Be Here." Perhaps the biggest cheers of the night came when he played "Chillin' It," one of his top hits.

Swindell joked to the crowd that even though he didn’t “make it in baseball,” he can "still play at baseball stadiums." He noted that this was his first time back at Target Field since he opened for country music star Kenny Chesney in 2015.
Swindell's keyboard player, a Minneapolis-native according to Swindell, performed in a baby blue Kent Hrbek jersey.
Twins Daily writer David Youngs watched the concert from the stands above the first baseline and appreciated the Twins' desire to bring new fans to the stadium.
 "I think it's great to see the Twins incorporate things outside of baseball to draw people to Target Field," Youngs said. “There is a historic relationship between baseball and country music, and it's great to see the Twins incorporate it."
The postgame concert brought a couple of changes to the Twins game. The Twins kept the beer flowing for the entire game rather than ceasing alcohol sales in the 7th inning like a normal night. Fans erupted with cheers when the public address announcer relayed this to the crowd. Sales continued during the concert as well. Another noted change was that the Twins almost exclusively played country music during the game.
Even though the game itself did not turn out in Twins fans’ favor, those who stuck around felt the concert more than made up for it.
'I thought: 'there is going to be a save situation tonight: Cole Swindell is going to save the day and put on a great show for Twins Territory," Twins fan Jared Saue said.
Several fans remarked that they hoped the Twins would host more postgame concerts in the future. They did not seem to mind that the concert took place on what for many is a work night. Though some fans trickled out during the show, most of the crowd stayed until end.
After the show ended at the stroke of midnight, fans mingled in the concourse and took group pictures in the stands before dancing off into the Minneapolis summer night. 
Did you stick around for the postgame concert? What was your experience like? Let us know in the comments below. 

Let’s get one thing out of the way immediately: this is not a pre-emptive defense of the team if they fail to make a big splash; anyone who implies so in the comments will have their thinking privileges taken away. Pointing out the challenges of navigating the trade deadline in 2022 is not equal to offering consent for possible inaction.
When we speak of trading for a player, it’s easy to allude vaguely to quality players, veterans on poor teams begging to find a more successful franchise to aid with their incredible skills. We look to the Nether, or the Upside-Down, and claim that Capable Reliever is sitting there, moping around on Bad Team, waiting for a Better Franchise to scoop them up. Yes, players like that exist on losing teams, but they must be specifically identified, not nebulously referred to.
Finding that player is going to be harder this season; the extra wild card playoff spot ensures that the typical suspects—the Yankees, the Red Sox, and the Dodgers—will have company as teams who otherwise never had a chance—those sitting around .500 looking at the third wild card spot—are now likely to enter the negotiation table as a buyer.
It may not seem like a significant calculus change, but 17 teams either claim a playoff spot or sit no further than three games away from one; that’s a lopsided field. At the deadline in 2021, there were only 12 such franchises. Most teams in MLB should legitimately enter into trade negotiations, shooting up the value of the few coveted players on bad teams. It’s double jeopardy; each franchise that doesn’t sell will likely become one to buy. In a pool of 30 teams, each minor shift could drastically alter the deadline’s power balance.
The Twins are in a bad spot for another reason: they’re basic. What pieces do they need the most? Starting and relief pitchers. What players do most buyers need every year? Starting and relief pitchers. When 10 teams want Tyler Mahle as well, you will have to part with much better prospects than you anticipated to deal; if the team plays as conservative as they have under this regime at past deadlines, they’ll end up with some bubblegum and a Wade Boggs rookie card. The aforementioned Mahle, Frankie Montas, and Luis Castillo; relievers like David Robertson, Scott Effross, and David Bednar; such players will be involved in enormous bidding wars, more so than usual. The Twins could easily find themselves with S*m D*s*n 2.0 if they are too careful.
All of this—the messy trade deadline combined with a team needing reinforcements and a Carlos Correa contract drama that this article didn’t even touch on—must force the Twins’ hand and move them away from conservatism. If they repeat their strategy in 2019 and avoid pushing beyond comfort for the big splash, they’ll have no chance at acquiring the player talent they need; other teams will overwhelm them with competitive offers. 
Will it happen? The front office proved capable of some genuinely chaotic moves when they dealt their recent first-round pick for Sonny Gray, then shocked baseball by swiping Carlos Correa up in free agency; signing Josh Donaldson and dealing a top prospect in Brusdar Graterol for Kenta Maeda broke the mold as well. They may be working on an absurd deal as we wait.
Until that trade bursts through to the public through a Jeff Passan tweet, we can only imagine the deals teams are discussing. The extra few legitimate buyers could alter the negotiations, upsetting the dynamic by limiting who is available to franchises looking to win. The Twins will need to continue acting aggressively, remembering that prospects often bust while flags fly forever.
 
 

Now, to be completely fair, the Minnesota Twins farm system has plenty of talent. While the group may not be topping charts across the league as a whole, there’s a glut of future Major Leaguers within the ranks. The larger question here is to what extent are Minnesota’s prospects coveted by other organizations, and what can they realistically bring in return.
That question is not easy because so many of the Twins top prospects have recently graduated. Jose Mirnada is thriving at the Major League level. Alex Kirilloff looks healthy and competitive. Gilberto Celestino may be near his ceiling, but it’s clear he’s a capable big-league outfielder. Trevor Larnach is currently hurt, but has flashed being an impact bat. There shouldn’t be any desire to trade Royce Lewis, and Jhoan Duran may wind up as Minnesota’s best rookie. The top of the farm system is now being coached by Rocco Baldelli.
After recently updating my top 30 prospects following day one of the Major League Baseball Draft, each of Minnesota’s three picks has found their way into the group. I can’t imagine a scenario in which any of them are considered in a package right now, and that’s before considering the complications limiting any of them being moved.
At the top of the group, you find Austin Martin. Looking to increase his power potential, Martin has changed his swing and approach this season. What was once a high-average hitter is a guy posting a .691 OPS and no longer a shortstop. He’s far too young to suggest this is a bust, but the prospect luster around him when acquired in exchange for Jose Berrios has worn a bit.
Simeon Woods-Richardson has taken over for Jordan Balazovic as Minnesota’s top pitching prospect, but he’s currently on the injured list and his rebound has been just to the tune of 53 innings this season. Matt Canterino looks like he could be a dominant reliever, but there has to be a better string of health there. Speaking of Balazovic, he’s looked completely lost at Triple-A and couldn’t be dealt at a time where his value looks any lower.
Realistically speaking, the first two names that come to mind when constructing a trade package are Spencer Steer and Matt Wallner. The former is following a path similar to that of Miranda last season and has done incredibly well at both Double and Triple-A. Steer should absolutely be a name that the Twins start conversations with, but I don’t know that a recent addition to the back half of top 100 lists will be enough of a building block to land a big-name starter like Frankie Montas.
In Wallner, Minnesota has a better version of what Brent Rooker could have been. Wallner is a massive power bat that has made strides when it comes to controlling the strike zone. It will be interesting to see if he can keep that up while remaining at Triple-A, but there’s a saving grace in the outfield. Wallner isn’t exactly Max Kepler out there, but his massive arm provides plenty of assist opportunity. The Twins didn’t work him as a pitcher in pro ball, but that could be a fallback option for an acquiring team if need be.
Ultimately I think it’s evident that Minnesota has the pieces to acquire just about any amount of relief help they need. On the starting front though, especially the big-name talents, it’s hard to imagine a scenario in which prospects alone are enough to get a deal done.