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John Bonnes

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Blog Entries posted by John Bonnes

  2. How far are the Twins from contention? One side looks at their dismal record and wants a complete makeover. The other looks at the team's players and thinks they’re just a couple of arms away from a pennant race. Which is it?
     
    Let’s do some back-of-the-napkin figuring. As of right now, the Twins are 111 runs under .500. Not wins under .500, but runs under .500.
     
    That isn’t good. The Indians are the only American League team that’s worse. The three teams who have the most runs over .500 also happen to be the division leaders. The outlier is the Orioles, who are 45 runs under .500 but still have a shot at the wild card. But for the most part, the teams that are around 40 games over .500 have a decent chance at a playoff spot.
     
    So how do the Twins, in 2013, get from -110 to +40? Can they? Is that realistic?
     
    It ain’t easy, but the Twins are both blessed and cursed by the same trait – they’re starting pitching is truly dreadful. That’s not breaking news, but just HOW awful they are is both stomach-turning and hope-inducing.
     
    They’re the worst team in the American League, and it’s not particularly close. The starting rotation’s ERA is currently 5.56. Next worst is almost a full half run better. The AL average is more than a run better. The median team is 1.2 runs better. And the best team, the Devil Rays, is more than two runs better per game.
     
    So where’s the hope? It’s in some simple math.
     
    The average AL starting rotation pitches about 990 innings, or about 110 full games worth of innings. If the rotation improves to just second worst in the AL, that’s worth 55 runs. A move to mediocrity brings them another 110 to 130 runs. That at least sounds close to contention.
     
    It turns out both sides are right. The Twins are dismal. And they’re a few non-terrible arms from contention. So the argument shifts: how tough is it to cobble together mediocre starting pitching?
     
    That depends on who you talk to. The Orioles might say it’s not that daunting, considering their rotation improved from dead last in 2011 to 9th this year with nothing more than a couple of cheaper free agent pickups. On the other hand, the Royals haven’t been better than the 10th best team in the AL since 2003, which is also the last time they were contenders.
     
    Twins optimists might point to Scott Diamond, a Rule 5 pickup, as an example of how decent starting pitching can come from where one least expects it. Twins pessimists might point to the other ten players who have started atop the mound at some point this season. None have thrown even 100 innings as a starter. None are likely to. If the front office could find pitching talent, wouldn’t they have found some in the 107 games started by those pitchers?
     
    I’m not sure I know the answer. But watching the last few weeks of the season and seeing the performances of Liam Hendriks, Sam Deduno and hopefully Esmerling Vasquez could – and probably should – play a part in the overall direction of the franchise this season.
     
    So maybe neither side is right, at least not yet.

  3. For Elise

    · John Bonnes · 08/27/2012 01:01 PM

    I wrote this 10 years ago. Today the Chatty Chatty Princess started her year as a sophmore and The Boy enters the seventh grade. Good luck guys. Love, Dad.


     

    ---------------------------------------------



    He didn't feel the gush that everyone said he would feel the first time he held her in his arms. He frowned. "I've never been especially good about feeling emotions."
     
    There was excitement to be sure. And a feeling of amazement. But mostly the infant seemed like an infinite puzzle to be pieced together. They had a job to do. She needed to eat. Sleep. Learn she was a part of a family.
     
    She would cry from the moment he came home from work, and he would walk around the house with her, showing her the curtains, the flowers, the Kirby Pucket face-on-a-stick; anything to distract her from her exhaustion or hunger for five minutes and then five minutes more. "She was happy before you came home, honest."


     
     

    -------------


     
     

    Shortly after the colic passed, they watched her roll onto her back. Six eyes grew wide and looked at each other. She immediately began working on rolling the other way. And then crawling. And walking. And talking. Definitely talking.
     
    And with each victory, came more self-assuredness.
     
    Now they had a new job to do. Limits needed to be set and erased. Challenges needed to made and met. Illusions needed to be poked. Usually, the toughest part of the job was knowing when to hold a hand and when to turn away. When to watch out for her without watching her.
     
    It was one of these times that he realized he felt the gush. He hadn't loved her at the hospital. He had fallen in love with her at home. And that was infinitely better.
     
     



    ----------
     



    Yesterday, his wife held her hand until she delivered her to her first kindergarten class - and then she turned away, and walked home.
     
    He hadn't gone. He had gone to work, like he did everyday. It was no big deal. It certainly wasn't for his daughter. Just new friends to play with. A new adult to charm. New toys, and art projects and songs to sing. Not so very different than another activity hour at the community rec center.
     
    But as he drove to work, he realized he knew better.
     
    It was not so long ago. He remembers his kindergarten and Mrs. Manfred. First grade and Miss Oeschlager. His hurry to clear the next hurdle, face the next challenge, race to adulthood.
     
    He sees it in her. She can't grow up fast enough. The blessed quandary about when to hold a hand or turn away will be less frequent now. And he wasn't there this morning because it WAS a big deal.
     
    So on I-94, he found himself struggling to wipe underneath his glasses, as too few memories triggered too many emotions for his eyes to hold. There was sadness. And pride. And the gush. But mostly there was life's intense taste when one is lucky enough to get a full dose.
     
    And he sighed. "I've never been especially good about feeling emotions."


  4. Aaron and John's last KFAN broadcast is live from the Minnesota State Fair. First they talk about the Twins slide, September callups and a report out of LA that the Dodgers pursued Justin Morneau this week. Then they are joined by Lindsay Guentzel who talks about the highlights and lowlights of living in the MLB Fan Cave, what it's like trying to build a career in media and why Aaron shouldn't lead with his hair on those first dates. Here are:
     
     

    the podcasts
    the rss feed if you want to subscribe and
    the podcast on iTunes.

  5. Why I Will Watch

    · John Bonnes · 08/21/2012 04:38 AM

    Tonight The Voice of Reason™ and I went to a St. Paul Saints game. We soaked in a gorgeous Minnesota summer night, watched a bunch of kitsch and thoroughly enjoyed a game in which we had almost no emotional investment. Because it’s baseball. And it doesn’t last forever.
     
    I hear Minnesota sports fans lauding the turning of the calendar page, anxious for football and the (albeit limited) hope new seasons bring. I’ll enjoy watching the Gophers and Vikings too. But I’m a baseball guy, and I can’t devise a night much better than I just had.
     
    So go ahead, tell me how tough it is for you to watch a Twins game right now. Or take it a step further; tell me how you won’t watch a Twins game right now. I won’t be upset. More like puzzled, because I see all kinds of things that are exciting to watch over these last six months of the season. Let’s count down the top six.
     
    6. Sam Deduno
     
    The original sin in baseball is to overestimate how much you really know. Sabermetrically and historically, Deduno doesn’t make any sense. But maybe we don’t know everything about this game just yet. I’m very excited to see how this ends.
     
    5. Chris Parmelee
     
    “Prospects” kind of get lumped together, and we’re poorer as fans for it. So let’s be clear – nobody has had a season like Parmelee is having in AAA since the Twins moved to Rochester. Not Cuddyer. Not Kubel. Not Morneau. That doesn’t mean he’s a star in the making. But I sure want to see what he can do.
     
    (And that includes what he can do – shudder – in right field.)
     
    4. Liam Hendriks & Brian Dozier
     
    Two guys who were rushed through AAA, brought up to the majors and predictably struggled. I’ve seen enough from both to think they’re on the right path, they just have a ways to go. I’m convinced these stories are going to have a happy ending.
    3. Denard Span & the Twins Medical Staff
     
    When Span is deemed unavailable for the 15th straight day, will the Twins finally feel comfortable putting him on the DL? Or perhaps they'll decide that they don’t need their medical staff any more, relying solely on the player’s self-diagnosis. When they need a second opinion they'll draw cards from the board game Operation. (The Wacky Doctor Game!)
     
    2. Other September Callups
     
    I think we’re going to be disappointed by how few additional September callups there are, but I’m hopeful we’ll get to see some pitching. I’d love to see if Esmerling Vazquez’ recent hot streak represents a breakthrough. I’d like to see if Anthony Slama and his video-game-like stats prove the organization’s brain trust wrong. I’d like to see if Deolis Guerra could have a role next year.
     
    1. Joe Mauer and Ben Revere
     
    As a Twins fan in the 70s, it wasn’t uncommon to have nothing more than a Carew batting title to root for come August. I’ll readily admit my fascination with Mauer and Revere’s longshot chances are based on that being an annual occurrence of my childhood. I’d likely be just as fascinated if they brought back the bullpen car.
     
    (Of course, who wouldn’t?)
  6. Aaron and John talk about Brian Dozier's demotion to Triple-A, Nick Blackburn's ongoing awfulness, whether the Twins are collapsing down the stretch again, the latest "day-to-day" injury proving anything but, where and when Chris Parmelee will play, KFAN producer Ryan Donaldson's puking story, and preparing for the return to full-time podcasting. Here are:
     
     

    the podcasts
    the rss feed if you want to subscribe and
    the podcast on iTunes.

  10. "We have holes. And some of it is pitching, and some of it is not. There are other areas we need to address."
    - Terry Ryan as reported by Phil Mackey
     
     
    The Twins rotation currently ranks 29th in the majors in ERA and 28th in innings pitched. But Ryan is right – they aren’t the only sore spot that will need to be addressed this offseason.
     
    The decision to promote and play Tsuyoshi Nishioka at second base highlights one such area. The Twins rank 29th in the majors in OPS(On Base Plus Slugging) from that position. Even if their best option, Jamey Carroll, had played there the entire season, his OPS would only rank 25th. Similarly, the shortstop position ranks 27th overall.
     
    The Twins are likely to use the rest of the year to further evaluate this offseason’s priorities. They might start be looking at where each position ranks offensively versus the rest of the league:
     
    [TABLE=width: 244]


    [/TD][TD=align: center]OPS

    [TD=align: center]MLB Rank
    [/TD]



    Left Field
    [TD=align: center]938
    [/TD]
    [TD=align: center]2
    [/TD]



    Catcher
    [TD=align: center]822
    [/TD]
    [TD=align: center]5
    [/TD]



    Designated Hitter
    [TD=align: center]845
    [/TD]
    [TD=align: center]8
    [/TD]



    Third Base
    [TD=align: center]765
    [/TD]
    [TD=align: center]11
    [/TD]



    Center Field
    [TD=align: center]718
    [/TD]
    [TD=align: center]17
    [/TD]



    First Base
    [TD=align: center]749
    [/TD]
    [TD=align: center]19
    [/TD]



    Right Field
    [TD=align: center]692
    [/TD]
    [TD=align: center]25
    [/TD]



    Shortstop
    [TD=align: center]575
    [/TD]
    [TD=align: center]27
    [/TD]



    Second Base
    [TD=align: center]571
    [/TD]
    [TD=align: center]29
    [/TD]

    [/TABLE]
     
    2B – Let’s start with the worst and get more optimistic. Most of the damage has been done by Alexi Casilla whose overall OPS is 580, which is one hundred points below his OPS last year and 50 points below his career OPS. He’ll likely get better, if he hasn’t already played himself out of the picture. (Again.)
     
    SS – Either you believe Brian Dozier will get better or you don’t. I think he will. He certainly needs to.
     
    RF – Even if Ben Revere had all the at-bats here, his 738 OPS would only rank 22nd. However, according to Ultimate Zone Rating, he has also saved another 10 runs with his glove. Using WAR, which tries to include defensive value, he ranks 12th overall.
     
    1B – Parmelee (667 OPS) and Mauer (752 OPS) are responsible for about 40% of the at-bats here.
     
    CF – The Twins have only given 15 at-bats to players other than Revere and Denard Span in center field. Those players have gone 0 for 15, which drags down the number about 20 points.
     
    3B – Imagine where the Twins would rank if Danny Valencia and his 522 OPS hadn’t eaten up about 1/3 of the at-bats this season.
     
    DH – The at-bats have been split four ways, but Ryan Doumit gets most of the credit. His OPS is 939 as a designated hitter, just 766 as a catcher.
     
    C – Not that the Twins two-headed catching monster isn’t working well. They only rank behind St. Louis (Yadier Molina), Milwaukee ( Jonathan LuCroy), San Francisco (Buster Posey) and Philadelphia (CHOOOOCH!)
     
    LF – Speaking of monsters, ladies and gentlemen, Josh Willingham, version 2012.
     
    Certainly, the Twins pitching has been an issue. But Ryan is correct to not overlook the uneven production from the lineup, too.

  11. Morneau vs. The Void

    · John Bonnes · 08/07/2012 04:56 AM

    If The Twins Are Willing To Trade Morneau This Offseason, There Should Be Options
     
    Last week, as the trade deadline approached, Justin Morneau was featured in the latest trade rumors. That made sense. First, Morneau had been productive and healthy. Second, Chris Parmelee is raking at first base in AAA but shut out in the majors. Finally, Morneau is still owed about $19M for the rest of this year and next. Moving him would give the Twins that much more money to spend on pitching this offseason.
     
    No deal was consummated, and it doesn’t sound like one was close, but that doesn’t mean the end of the rumors. They’ll flow into this offseason and will likely gain additional steam because this year the crop of free agent first basemen is so bleak. There is no Prince Fielder or Albert Pujols or even a Paul Konerko in this class.
     
    The top name? Would you believe the 37-year-old Carlos Lee? Yes, the same Carlos Lee who was already salary dumped this year and then was rumored to be on the block again. He has all of six home runs, but at least he’s hitting .292. Now look into the rest of the void….
     
     
    Sure, They’re Old, But At Least They’re Hurt.
    Lance Berkman
    He has just 75 at-bat this year because he’s been out the last two months after knee surgery, and that was following a previous stay on the DL for a calf injury. There will be serious concerns that his 36-year-old body can’t take it any more.
     
    Aubrey Huff
    Similarly, Huff is 35 years old and has only has 61 at-bats this year (and is hitting just .148) because of several DL stints which include an anxiety disorder and knee tendonitis.
     
    Carlos Pena
    Ok, he’s not hurt, but he’s hitting .193, so who could tell? He's also 35 years old and still can’t hit left-handers. Like the others, he’s worth a flyer, but who would rely on him for more than that?
     
    Bad, But Bad In A Youngish Way
    Casey Kotchman
    He’s just 30 years old, but he has never hit more than 12 home runs in his career, is struggling against left-handers and is hitting just .223.
     
    James Loney
    He’s the reason the Dodgers were talking to the Twins about Morneau at the deadline. He’s hitting .257 with two home runs. Two As in two more than I have hitting for the Dodgers this year. The only thing he has going for him is that he’s only 28 years old.
     
    They’re Old. They Also Don’t Start.
    Ty Wigginton
    All you need to know about the 35-year-old Wigginton is that the only way he’s available is if the Phils DON’T pick up a $4M option on him. That should clarify his value.
     
    Eric Hinske
    Yes, I’m talking about the 35-year-old bench player for the Braves for the lat 3 years. He has not seen 400 at-bats from a team since 2005.
     
    Winner: Justin Morneau
    Morneau, by comparison, is 31 years old, hitting .275 and has 15 home runs. Those numbers don’t justify a $14M salary next year. And if he was a free agent, he would not garner any offers for that kind of money annually.
     
    However, he is also the class of that list. If Morneau was a free agent, right now it looks like a two-year deal (for maybe $16M?) would not be out of the question. A three-year deal might be in play. If he and his agent insisted on a one-year deal (to increase his value for another run at free agency), a $9-10M deal might not be out of the question.
     
    But more important than the numbers is simply supply and demand. This offseason, the supply of first basemen who can be a middle-of-the-order presence for a competitive team is limited. In fact, it could be just Morneau. If Terry Ryan decides he is willing to trade Morneau – either to make room for Parmelee or to free up $14M in cash – there sure should be some desperate teams out there.
  12. Aaron and John talk about dumping Danny Valencia, bringing back Tsuyoshi Nishioka, what the trade deadline inactivity means, what can be done about the Twins' medical staff, John's new motorcycle, Alex Wimmers' elbow surgery, and a report about Miguel Sano and the Beloit prospects from special guest Seth Stohs. Here are:
     
     
     

    the podcasts
    the rss feed if you want to subscribe and
    the podcast on iTunes.

  13. Other Voices

    · John Bonnes · 07/31/2012 12:04 PM

    Two weeks ago on Gleeman and the Geek, Aaron Gleeman and I argued about Francisco Liriano. In Liriano's previous outing he had struck out 15 batters but lost the game when he gave up a grand slam in the fourth inning. Aaron chaffed at the portrayal of Liriano as "mentally weak" while I felt that Liriano, at the very least, had trouble pulling himself out of a nosedive when he started struggling.
     
    Anyone who listens to the podcast knows that Aaron and I arguing some perceived point into the ground is not unusual. What you may not know is that after shows, or even on the breaks, we often turn to each other and wonder what the hell we were really arguing about. And we often conclude that we weren’t really arguing with each other at all. We were arguing with Other Voices.
     
    In this case that became apparent around the 25:00 minute mark when Aaron refers to a story about the game. I didn’t even know that story existed. When he was arguing, he wasn’t arguing with me; he was arguing against that story. He was arguing with Other Voices that weren’t in the room. For that matter, so was I, only I was arguing with voices I’ve argued with for a decade. Those voices were arguing that player performances are dice throws, randomly determined like stratomatic cards. That wasn’t Aaron’s point at all. But I was listening to the Other Voices.
     
    Here’s the thing: I think Aaron and I see eye-to-eye on Liriano. We’ve had conversations where we are completely in sync. Aaron was fighting a fight he is accustomed to fighting and I was doing the same. We ended up at odds and then wondered what the hell we were arguing about. In my mind, one thing was certain: it wasn’t about Liriano’s mental or emotional stability when it came to pitching. Which was, of course, what the argument was supposedly about.
     
    I've seen more and more of this, just become I'm becoming more sensitive to it. It’s even more common in an oral medium where one can’t parse ones words quite as much, cover one’s tracks in a well-written argument. And that also means it is becoming more obvious on Twitter and message boards, where brevity is required.
     
    And I’ve seen it a lot over the past 48 hours since the Liriano trade. I wonder how often our reaction to something like that is based more on battles we are accustomed to fighting versus Other Voices than objective evaluation. I even wonder if we shift our evaluation to find room for our voices amid the din, like a youngest sibling finding the niche his older brothers haven’t covered.
     
    I don’t know that there is a lesson to be learned here. It’s just something I’m noticing. And as much as seeing that behavior in others bothers me, it’s even worse when I find myself not being full present, distracted or even driven by Other Voices.
  14. The trade deadline is a significant event in Twins Daily’s calendar and now that it’s over, I thought we might give an update on how the community is faring.
     
     

    We have 1923 registered users and 963 of them have contributed at least one post to the site.
    We have 2209 threads with 40,120 posts. Each month, the number of posts has been increasing by 24%.
    133 members have tried blogging and produced 1342 posts.
    Over 150,000 unique visitors have stopped by the site since we went live just over five months ago.
    On trade deadline day, we set a record for activity with 45,000+ page views. What’s more, on Friday we will pass our 3 millionth page view.

     
    We (actually, Brock gets all the credit for this ) have also rolled out a new mobile version of the site that we hope will help you keep in touch with the community even when you have to be away from your PC.
     
    I hope you’re all as thrilled with the scale of what is happening and are committed to making everyone feel welcome. The goal of this site was to make it easier for Twins fans to find great independent Twins writers and thinkers, regardless of the background and baseball beliefs. We’ve now reached 150,000 fellow fans who have read your posts and blogs three million times.
     
    So THANKS for continuing to share your passion and make this community an inviting baseball oasis. Please think about sharing it with friends or even strangers who are as passionate about the Twins as you are. Passions are best when they’re shared.
     
    And PLEASE don’t hesitate to share your thoughts/suggestions about the site in our Questions About Twins Daily forum.
     
    Blogs
     
    You would think we might be happy with 133 member blogs and 1342 posts. We are, but I believe we can do more - that there is a lot of hidden talent out there. So in our forum I’ve opened a thread talking about the establishment of a Twins Daily Writer’s Club. If you’re interested in writing more, please check it out and let me know of any ideas you might have.
  15. Aaron and John talk about the Francisco Liriano trade, break down the prospects from the White Sox and the Twins' reasoning for the deal, get sad with Otis Redding, welcome back Danny Valencia, look ahead to potential other moves before the deadline, marvel at Lew Ford, update Alex Wimmers' health, and then John leaves and Aaron does a solo podcast with the help of Twitter questions. Here are:
     
     

    the podcasts
    the rss feed if you want to subscribe and
    the podcast on iTunes.

  16. Ten Things I HATE About The Liriano Trade
     
    I started making a list of the top 10 things I hate about this trade for today’s Gleeman and the Geek podcast. I’m up to #28.
     
    (Kill me. Or better yet, add on in the comments section.)
     
    1. I hate that after waiting out the market so Liriano was the best remaining rental, the Twins traded him after his one terrible start in the last two months and less than 24 hours before a possible redeeming start.
     
    2. I hate that what the Twins got in return is SO much worse than what other rental pitchers brought back.
     
    3. I hate that despite that evidence, people will defend Minnesota Twins GM Terry Ryan by saying “we don’t know what offers they had.”
     
    4. I hate that neither player received was ranked in the top 10 of White Sox prospects by Baseball America, which relies heavily on what the organization thinks of their own prospects.
     
    5. I hate that since those rankings, neither player has had a particularly strong year.
     
    6. I hate that the Twins traded with an organization whose farm system is weaker than their own ravaged system.
     
    7. I hate that the only way I could think this trade made sense was if the Twins knew Liriano was hurt and hiding an injury.
     
    8. I hate that the Twins didn’t even attempt to negotiate with Liriano.
     
    9. I hate the Twins traded a high-upside player to division rival without knowing if he was willing or maybe desperate to sign a long-term extension.
     
    10. I hate that White Sox GM Kenny Williams first reaction must have been “How soon can I hang up this phone?”
     
    11. I hate that Williams 2nd reaction was likely “Hold it – this is too good. Is there something wrong with Liriano? Is he hurt?”
     
    12. I hate that Williams 3rd reaction was probably “Meh. Even if he is, who cares? All I’m giving up is Escobar and Hernandez!”
     
    13. I hate that the last time we thought a trade was almost this bad was when the Twins traded Capps for Ramos. And even then it wasn’t this unanimous. And the Twins stubbornly kept overpaying and bringing Capps back for two years to justify it.
     
    14. I hate that the last time we had this much complete unanimity on how bad a move by the Twins this is was back when they signed Nick Blackburn to a long-term deal, which also involved loving a low strikeout pitcher way too much.
     
    15. I hate that Hernandez is such a stereo-typical Twins pitcher – low strikeouts, good control. I hate that the Twin still think this is really the way to go.
     
    16. I hate that it makes me wonder if Scott Diamond - another low strikeout/great control pitcher with a lot of initial success - is going to end up like Blackburn/Carlos Silva/ Joe Mays sooner rather than later.
     
    17. I hate that the Twins, rather than walking away with their winnings on guys like this, keep doubling-down until they lose.
     
    18. I hate that the Twins acquired a middle infielder that can’t get on base.
     
    19. I hate that the Twins acquired a middle infielder that likely won’t make the top 10 prospects in their own organization.
     
    20. I hate that this trade reinforces that the Twins have failed to develop decent middle infielders – even when they trade for them.
     
    21. I hate that this trade makes me wonder if the Twins inability to develop good middle infielders doesn’t have less to do with their farm system and more to do with their philosophy and scouting.
     
    22. I hate the Liriano was my Gleeman and the Geek Pickpointz pick of the week, making it possibly the worst pick in the history of the game.
     
    23. I hate that if this was the best offer, keeping Liriano wasn’t an option.
     
    24. I hate that Ryan felt the need to dump Liriano for this package while simultaneously praising him for his character in the locker room, bringing into question why he didn’t keep him.
     
    25. I hate that the most obvious answer to that question might be fiscal. And that implies thatcut-backs could make 2013 even more painful than last year.
     
    26. I hate that Terry Ryan did exactly the opposite of what he said he was going to do: acquired low-upside players close to the major instead of high-upside players further from the majors.
     
    27. I hate that this makes me doubt Terry Ryan’s leadership of the Twins.
     
    28. I hate that I no longer want the Twins to trade for any more “prospects” at the
  17. Two big pitching trades have been made this week and several more have been close. With all that activity, could it be that Terry Ryan has missed his chance to maximize his return on Francisco Liriano?
     
    I don’t think so, but I also doubt we’ll see a move soon.
     
    Still Lots Of Interest
    The Tigers acquired Anibal Sanchez on Monday and the Pirates traded for Wandy Rodriguez on Tuesday. Both are top notch pitchers that could be viewed as comparable (or better) than Liriano. Furthermore, yesterday Dan Gladden revealed that the Twins had long talks with the Pirates before they walked away and the Pirates worked out a deal with Houston for Rodriguez. It also appears that the Dodgers are in a standoff with the Cubs for Ryan Dempster, a standoff they’re likely to win since Dempster has already vetoed a trade to the Braves.
     
    That’s three “buyers” likely gone for Ryan. But it appears that there are still plenty left. Within the past month, the Red Sox, Angels, Rangers, Braves and Blue Jays have all been rumored to be interested in Liriano. Plus, the Orioles, Nationals, Mets, White Sox and Cardinals have all demonstrated they are interested in adding starting pitching. That is ten teams, albeit with varying level of interest.
     
    Still Lots Of Uncertainty
    But things are still moving slowly because nobody is sure exactly which pitchers are going to be available. Cole Hamels is out because he just signed an extension with Philadelphia. Matt Garza might be out, because “forearm pain” is often the first sign of an elbow ligament tear, so teams want to see him pitch again, and the Cubs say he might not. Rumors have been flying about the Marlins Josh Johnson, but the Marlins now say they would need to be blown away to trade him.
     
    On the other hand, Zach Greinke is almost certainly available. He’ll almost certainly be moved to teams before Liriano, because most GMs will try for Greinke first and turn to Liriano as the backup choice. It’s not clear if some other huge names like the Phillies Cliff Lee or the Rays James Shields are available because they aren’t “rental” players, so any trade would require major prospects. The buyers are going to want to explore all these options, looking for the best deal.
     
    The Waiting Game
    So it appears we’re going to need to wait a bit longer. Liriano hasn’t been consistent enough to make anyone overpay for him before others have signed. But it also appears that ultimately, there are going to be more teams looking for top-tier pitchers than there will be top-tier pitchers. If that stays true, it playing the waiting game is still the best hope for maximizing Liriano’s value.

  18. Big Trades Impact Twins

    · John Bonnes · 07/24/2012 12:02 PM

    Two huge trades went through yesterday and both of them impact the Twins to some degree.
     
    Yankees Acquire Ichiro Suzuki
    Yesterday the Yankees acquired Ichiro Suzuki (and cash) for little more than a lesser prospect and a waiver wire pickup. It had been reported that they had explored trades for both Denard Span and Shane Victorino of the Phillies, so this gives the Twins one less suitor to court. But it doesn’t properly reflect the market.
     
    In nearly all respects except name recognition, Denard Span is worth quite a bit more than Ichiro to a major league team. Ichiro is 38, comes with a price tag over $6M for this year, is a free agent at the end of the year, and his OBP is just .288. (For reference, Tsuyoshi Nishioka’s OBP last year was just 10 points lower.) Span is 28, will cost the team $1M, is under contract for two more years (plus a 3rd year team option) and has an OBP of .340. Finally, Ichiro had trade veto rights, so he was only going to go where he WANTED to go. This was a salary dump, and possibly a favor to Ichiro, which is very different than a Span trade would be.
     
    But it does mean one less team is interested in Span, taken by a player we didn’t really know is on the market. That doesn’t mean that the market has dried up. As far as lead-off hitters go, there are still plenty of options: Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Baltimore and the Dodgers could all be labeled “borderline desperate” for a high OBP player. So could the Nationals, who incidentally approached the Twins about Span last year.
     
    The more I look at it, the more I believe that some team is going to talk themselves into Span at the deadline. He’s a better fit for more teams than has generally been acknowledged.
     
    Tigers Acquire Anibal Sanchez
    When the Marlins, who had seemingly pushed all their chips into the middle of the table this offseason, announced they were looking to sell off key players, it was bad news for the Twins. The Marlins have plenty to offer teams looking to get better. That includes right-handed pitcher Anibal Sanchez, who is becoming a free agent at the end of the year and positioned to do even better than Francisco Liriano on the free agent market.
     
    He was traded yesterday to the Detroit Tigers along with Omar Infante, a starting second baseman. In return, the Tigers built a package around starting pitcher Jacob Turner, who entered the season as an “A” prospect, though he’s struggled a bit in AAA and the majors this year. They added a couple of “C” prospects too.
     
    Meanwhile, there were multiple reports that the Cubs had an agreemenent to trade Ryan Dempster to the Braves for a package that include Randall Delgado, another “A” starting pitching prospect who has struggled a bit this year in the majors.
     
    This suggests that right now, eight days before the deadline, aggressive (or risk-adverse) teams are willing to overpay with borderline “A” pitching prospects for an exceptional pitcher. That doesn’t mean the Twins have received that kind of an offer. Dempster was clearly valued higher than Liriano. Sanchez is at least comparable, and certainly has been more consistent. (Also, since the Tigers are in the Twins division it was unlikely they would want to trade the Twins a prospect that will face them for years to come.)
     
    There are still a few hands to play before we find out where Liriano ranks in the trade market. Lots of additional names could hit the market - or they could not. The Phillies are negotiating with Cole Hamels. Zach Greinke and Matt Garza both suddenly have injury concerns. Either way, there are still plenty of teams interested in Liriano. But so far, the market seems to be dictating that the market for moving a pitcher like Liriano is strong. We’ll see in the next week whether it gets better or worse.
  19. Aaron and John talk about Francisco Liriano's fluctuating trade value, whether Denard Span will also be on the move, why Aaron can't make friends, John's mid-life crisis, the Dark Knight Rises, Aaron Hicks' bounceback, and mailbag questions from Twitter. Here are:
     
     

    the podcasts
    the rss feed if you want to subscribe and
    the podcast on iTunes.

  20. The Big Picture
     
    The Red Sox season has been a mess. Check that – the Red Sox season, offseason and end of last season has been a Hoarders-episode-sized mess. There was last September’s meltdown, firing the coach, firing/losing their GM, naming a new GM, overruling the GM about the new coach, who then alienates several team leaders one of whom ends up being traded….
     
    And they’re still just one game out of BOTH wild card spots.
     
    There are a lot of desperate people in Bosox management who are feeling some heat right now. I can’t imagine a group-think that would be riper for a desperate, possibly stupid, trade.
     
    Why They Will Trade With The Twins
    The Red Sox starting pitching is 27th in ERA. Sure enough, the rumor mill has them pursuing several pitchers, including a report from CBSSports.com’s Jon Heyman that links them to Francisco Liriano. Liriano makes sense, both because he’s someone they could leverage this year but also because they certainly have the means to entice him to stick around if things work. One could also imagine a sabrmetrically inclined organization coveting Liriano’s 3.62 xFIP.
     
    As for the lineup, they're likely set. They rank second in the majors in runs scored and Jacoby Ellsbury just returned. The Red Sox could certainly find room for Denard Span in one of the outfield corners, but if Ellsbury is healthy, they already have an elite leadoff hitter. Their focus is going to be on the rotation.
     
    Why They Won’t Trade With The Twins
    They might have a different starting pitcher at the top of their list. Yesterday ESPN’s Buster Olney tweeted that the Red Sox were “aggressive in the pursuit of Ryan Dempster,” the Cubs right-hander who will be a free agent this offseason. Dempster makes sense for the Red Sox – he’s a veteran having an outstanding year, and the Cubs GM is Theo Epstein, who was the GM of the Red Sox last year.
     
    That means the management of these two teams knows each other, which is both good and bad for making a trade. On the one hand, Epstein certainly knows the prospects he would be chasing, and the Red Sox probably have a good idea which of their prospects Epstein likes best. On the other hand, this wasn’t the cleanest breakup in the world. The Red Sox also might be hesitant to deal with a GM that knows their strengths and weaknesses as well as Epstein.
     
    Conclusion
    You can certainly add the Red Sox to the list of possible suitors for Liriano. And even if they do match up better with the Cubs and end up with Dempster, that’s not bad news for the Twins. It means one less high upside pitcher on the trade market, without appreciably shrinking the teams looking for one.
     
    Trade Targets
    Xander Bogaerts – SS
    It’s unlikely the Twins will land Bogaerts, the top prospect in Boston’s organization, but they’ll ask, and I don’t put anything past Boston’s management team given their recent track record. Bogaerts is as highly touted – maybe even higher – as Miguel Sano. He’s 19 years old, he’s already in High A ball and he’s doing well (.287, 12 HR) there. Plus, he’s a shortstop. He would be a GREAT get.
     
    Ryan Lavarnway – C/DH
    The Red Sox have a 27-year-old catcher, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, who has already slugged 17 home runs. They also have a promising AAA 24-year-old catcher available. Lavarnway looks like an IDEAL complement to Joe Mauer. He’s right-handed and has hit for a ton of power (34 HR last year between AA, AAA and the majors). Much the way Doumit has, Lavanrway could play catcher when necessary, but his bat could play anyplace when Mauer is catching.
     
    Matt Barnes – RHP
    Drafted last year, the 22-year-old Barnes has already made his way through Low A and is starting at High A. Even at that level he has 63 K vs 15 BB in 59.1 IP. He’s considered polished with a 93-95 mph fastball and three other pitches.
     
    Anthony Ranaudo – RHP
    Ranaudo deserves mention because he’s 22 years old, put up decent stats in A Ball last year and is arguably the Red Sox second best pitching prospect. But he’s struggled this year and been shut down with shoulder fatigue, so it’s unlikely he would be someone the Twins would (or should) gamble on.
     
    Henry Owens – LHP
    He’s left-handed, 6’ 7”, 19 years old and has 97 K in 68.2 IP in Low A ball. He’s inconsistent, resulting in a 4.72 ERA, but there is a lot of upside here. It would only be fitting if he was part of the package the Twins received for the enigmatic Liriano.
  21. Aaron and John talk about once again rooting for the worst team in the league, why Francisco Liriano is like religion, what defines an "A" or "B" prospect in trade talks, how passing on Mark Appel makes even more sense now, celebrating our 50th episode, Matt Capps' return, Carl Pavano's non-return, Aaron's refined drinking habits, and a whole bunch of mailbag questions from listeners via Twitter. Here are:
     
     
     

    the podcasts
    the rss feed if you want to subscribe and
    the podcast on iTunes.

  22. The Big Picture
    The Pirates are in first place at the All-Star Break. Oops - hold on. I didn’t say that with the right emphasis. Let me try again. The PIRATES are in FIRST F*$%ING PLACE at the ALL-STAR BREAK.
     
    Wha? How?
    That’s a fair question, considering their offense has scored 345 runs this year, 21st in the majors. The answer is that their pitching and defense has been outstanding, resulting in the 5th best team ERA in the league.
     
    Why They Will Trade With The Twins
    For starters, they’re “in a buying mode” according to their manager. And they’re looking for offense.
     
    You can almost throw a dart and find a spot in the lineup that needs improving. That said, the Pirates leadoff spot has been terrible this year, with a combined .228 batting average and .272 on-base percentage. That OBP ranks 29th in the major leagues. Recently they turned leadoff duties to a guy they just picked up off of waivers. It’s that bad.
     
    Denard Span probably wouldn’t play center field in Pittsburgh because their center fielder, Andrew McCutcheon, is having an enormous year. However, left fielder Jose Tabata was just sent down to AAA. He’ll be back because he signed a six-year deal with the Pirates, but there is also right field, where Twins castoff Garret Jones is platooning with …well, its not clear day-to-day that there is a good option for the other half of that platoon. Or that Jones wouldn’t just be better served off the bench.
     
    So Span fills a desperate need, improves the Pirates corner outfield defense and does so long-term at a reasonable salary, which is always a factor for the financially strapped Steel City.
     
    Why They Won’t Trade With the Twins
    Lately, they’ve been tied to two much bigger names: Justin Upton of the Diamondbacks and Carlos Quentin of the Padres. But the Pirates don’t seem to match up well with the Diamondbacks, according to Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic.
     
    As for Quentin, the Pirates would probably love to have him bat behind McCutcheon to protect the budding superstar, but Quentin is also a free agent at the end of the year. And there are several other teams in on Quentin, including the Reds who the Pirates are trying to fend off.
     
    So it might come down to which the Pirates prefer – big and gone or steady and staying. Or Span could be a defensive move if the Reds get Quentin. Or the Pirates could decide one doesn’t preclude the other. It shouldn’t. This lineup needs plenty of help.
     
    Conclusion
    The trade market may sort itself out very late this year as teams take as much time as they can to see if they are “in it” or not. Of the possible fits for the Pirates, Denard Span is near the top of the list. And as you can see below, the Pirates have plenty of pitching. There are reasons for optimism here.
     
    Trade Targets
    Jameson Taillon – RHP
    He’s a 20-year-old blue chip starting pitching prospect whose numbers (High A - 4.05 ERA and 73K in 86.2 IP) don’t reflect his stuff. Pittsburgh have instructed him to command his fastball rather than striking out hitters with his breaking ball. I’m sure the Twins will ask about him. I doubt they’ll get him, unless the bidding turns fierce.
     
    Jeff Locke – LHP
    Locke had a similar year to Liam Hendriks in 2011. He showed a lot of promise in AA, made just five starts in AAA and then was promoted as a September callup. Not too surprisingly, he was disappointing. This year the Pirates are stashing the 24-year-old left-hander in AAA to be used as major league filler and he’s having a very good year: 2.92 ERA, 84K and 23 BB in 95.2 IP. The looks to me like a middle-of-the-rotation arm that could be ready as soon as the fall, which is a nice fit for the Twins. (But then I still feel the same way about Hendriks.)
     
    Thanks to Jeremy Nygaard for this next name...
     
    Kyle McPherson – RHP
    He’s 24, and started the year late in AA because of a shoulder problem, but there is no reason to think he’ll stay there long. He dominated AA the second half of last year en route to being the Bucs minor league pitcher of the year. He’s got a good strikeout rate and excellent control – exactly the kind of guy the Twins would target. Baseball America ranked him as the 6th best prospect in the Pirates system this year.
     
    Luis Heredia – RHP
    A 6’ 6”, 18-year-old, high-upside (his fastball is already in the low 90s) pitcher who is still several years away from the majors and will be limited to rookie ball this year.
     
    Stetson Allie – RHP
    Here’s a wild card – emphasis on “wild.” The 21-year-old right-hander was the Bucs second round pick just a year ago. Unfortunately, his 100 mph fastball doesn’t do anyone any good if it can’t find the plate. Recently, it got bad enough that they demoted him to rookie ball - and had him switch to third base. If the Twins think they can “fix” him, like they did Alex Wimmers, maybe he could be an interesting secondary piece to fill out a trade package.
  24. Aaron and John talk about the endless game of musical pitchers, revisit their preseason over/under predictions, answer Twitter questions from listeners, try to decide who comes off worse owning the same shirt, wonder if Nick Blackburn is worth having in the 2013 plans, review Samuel Deduno's first start, and try to keep Aaron from coughing up a lung. Here are:
     
     

    the podcasts
    the rss feed if you want to subscribe and
    the podcast on iTunes.

  25. If the Twins want to sign Francisco Liriano to an extension, it will need to be in the parameters of what Liriano will make on the free agent market this winter. But its hard to know even roughly how much he’ll command. Partly that’s because of his mercurial performance. But that problem is compounded by a free agent class that is unprecedented in pitching depth.
     
    It starts with two 28-year-olds, right-hander Zach Greinke and left-hander Cole Hamels that are both better than anyone in last year’s class. They both could reach nine figure deals with yearly salaries that approach $20M per year.
     
    But the really remarkable variable about the free agent class is the next level. There is a glut of “potential” star pitchers and Liriano falls into that class.
     
     

    Anibal Sanchez – The Marlins right-hander is just 28, and has thrown 195+ innings with a mid 3s ERA the last two years. He looks similarly strong this year.

     
     

    Shaun Marcum – The Brewers 30-year-old right-hander has a 3.56 ERA over the last three years and has averaged about 200 innings the last two of years. But lately he’s shelved with a sore elbow.

     
     

    Jake Peavy - The 2007 Cy Young winner has been injured a lot the past several years, but has finally regained his form with the White Sox with a 2.96 ERA (and 101 K).

     
     

    Colby Lewis – the Rangers right-hander who has struck out 455 batters and in 500 innings over the last 2.5 years – but who is now out with “forearm tightness”.

     
     

    Dan Haren – After posting an ERA of 3.08 over the last two years with the Angels, the 31-year-old right-hander struggled this year. He recently admitted he’s had lower back pain all season and may find the DL. His performance over the last couple of months may determine if the Angels pick up his $15M option.

     
     

    Ervin Santana – Like Liriano, Santana has had good years and bad years. The last two, where he threw 451.2 innings with a 3.65 ERA were very good years. This year, where he has a 5.12 ERA is not so much. He’s not even 30 yet.

     
    Liriano, who currently has 5.40 ERA and 76K in 76.2 IP slots in somewhere among these pitchers. He’s probably been the least consisten, but he’s also one of the youngest. He has never posted the inning totals that these guys have. But he’s also the only left-hander in this group.
     
    Finally, it’s also worth noting that I haven’t included a slew of other pitchers, some of whom might even be more enticing to teams looking for “inning eaters”: Kyle Lohse, Joe Saunders, Randy Wolf, Carl Pavano, Kevin Correia, Derek Lowe, Carlos Zambrano, Fausto Carmona and Daisuke Matsuzaka.
     
    So how much could Liriano expect, provided he continues to be effective? The guys I bullet pointed above could all expect multiyear offers for $10M+ per year any other year. Injuries and late season performances could change that. So could the depth of the market.
     
    Liriano would likely be on the low end of that group, but his age could be a factor in allowing a longer-term deal. Three years and $27M “feels” about right. But there are a ton of unknowns. If some teams really want a left-hander, he could go higher. If the market dries up after the first half dozen guys sign, he could go lower or for fewer years. Plus, there is his performance in July through September. If he wants to cash in now and avoid all that, one would think the price of an extension might be a little lower.
     
    But there is another lesson here too.
     
    The Twins, should they choose to spend some money, have a historically deep free agent class to rebuild their rotation. While the focus is likely to be Greinke or Hamels, there is a lot of value in that next tier – someone is going to fall out of that group and get a lower contract than we anticipate. And there are a lot of other average pitchers (such as Pavano) who might find themselves standing without a chair when the music stops.
     
    If the Twins choose to try and extend Liriano, they place their bet early. It might make more sense to wait until the market sorts itself out and be aggressive later.

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