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John Bonnes

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Blog Entries posted by John Bonnes

  3. John and Aaron talk about the Twins signing Rafael Perez, which arms will be healthy, stuffing seven relievers into two bullpen spots, how much a person is allowed to like Brian Dozier, ornery insomnia, casting CSI:GATG, why Joe Benson should be left-handed, unprofessional bathroom breaks, Liam Hendriks vs. Kyle Gibson, snowshoes and the Vinland Center's "winter walkabout" charity, and the importance of spring training.
     
     

    the podcasts
    the rss feed if you want to subscribe and
    the podcast on iTunes.

     
     

  4. Aaron and John talk about braving the blizzard in the name of podcasting, Anthony Swarzak's horseplay, Scott Diamond's setback, the Twins' pitching curse, Joe Saunders choosing "dollars and years" somewhere else, where the Twins' farm system ranks, reaching 500,000 downloads, bad mug shots, The Voice of Reason's evil twin, Lifetime Hockey's annual camp, and drinking vodka like water. Here are:
     
     

    the podcasts
    the rss feed if you want to subscribe and
    the podcast on iTunes.

     
    Or listen by clicking below....
     

  5. Aaron and John talk about Super Bowl festivities, breaking down the other four teams in the AL Central, last week's star-studded Twins Fest get-together, Matt Capps staying in the division, Aaron's chances with Kate Mara, feeling sorry for Carl Pavano, Dave St. Peter's dimples, the latest on Joe Saunders, meeting people from Twitter, "IAMACEO" by Starflyer 59, and the beauty of Andrew Dice Clay. Here are:
     
     
     

    the podcasts
    the rss feed if you want to subscribe and
    the podcast on iTunes.

     

  7. John and Aaron are reunited to talk Minnesota Twins. But the podcast starts with the two catching up: John's trip, the death of Aaron's youth, John's Bar Mitzvah adventures, how Aaron picks up waitresses and how cricket teams could use a sabrmetric intervention. Then they move onto the Twins, catching up on the moves John missed, wondering how anyone can justify the Twins payroll and starting rotation, the disappointing Hall of Fame votes and the BBWAA's ongoing (an largely successful) struggle to make itself irrelevant. Here are:
     
     

    the podcasts
    the rss feed if you want to subscribe and
    the podcast on iTunes.

  8. You only have two choices: will he be better or worse in 2013....
     
    2012 Recap
    Given the clustermess that was 2011, most Twins fans would have been happy just to see Joe Mauer on the field last year. They did - kinda.
     
    Mauer not only stayed healthy, but set a career high with 647 plate appearances and 147 games played. However, exactly half of his starts were at catcher (72 games), with the rest happening at designated hitter (42 games) and first base (30 games). I'll leave you to debate how that impacts his value.
     
    What is not debatable is the he returned to being elite offensively. He was in the AL batting race until the last weekend. His .416 on-base percentage led the league. He hit double-digit home runs (albeit barely) for the first time since his MVP campaign. And he posted an 861 OPS, tops for AL catchers.
     
    Why He'll Be Worse
    Don't look now, but like a certain blogger, our boy Joe turns 30 this year. That's even more ominous because he was also remarkably healthy last year. Furthermore, so was Ryan Doumit, which meant Mauer's body had the luxury of rarely being forced into multiple consecutive starts. Finally, there is the whole regression to the mean thing - how long can we expect him to stay at this level?
     
    Why He'll Be Better
    Believe it or not, that 861 OPS he posted is below his career 873 average. So was his .319 batting average. He'll also be a year further away from the injury problems that torpedoed 2011. Finally, both he and the Twins seem to have found (and accepted) a recipe for keeping him healthy by moving him around the diamond a little.
     
    So which is it? Take your pick in the survey below and leave us a comment saying why.
  10. [video=youtube;VAcYNo6YW70]
    Want to try your own Minnesota Twins (or movie or technology or whatever) podcast? 
    Great. You can start with this video. John walks Aaron through the same process we've used to record 70+ Gleeman and the Geek episodes, from the hardware through editing and to hosting. It's just a couple minutes long and at a high level, but hopefully it'll give you enough information to try it yourself.
     
    For reference, here are the basics:

    We record it all on an iPhone, using the FiRe app. On the video, I show how to record it on Aaron's Mac. You could also use any PC with a microphone plug in (and then you don't need the special "plug" I talk about in the video.)
    We use a special splitter that we plug into it that allows two mics to go into it and (most importantly) turns off the built-in iPhone mic. I bought that on the internet.
    We used two very basic radio shack mics. We used little foamy covers on them. Both of them also need an adaptor that allows them to plug into a 1/8th inch hole instead of 1/4 inch. There are an array of better mics you could use. You can also use the built-in mic, but that will pick up a lot of background noise and sound a little "cave-ish" in my opinion. You're best of experimenting.

     
     
    After we've recorded, I
     
     

    Download the audio from the iPhone onto my PC.
    Open it using Audacity (a free program). It works on PC or Mac. You can also use it to record the podcast if you're mic is plugged into your PC.
    Add the intro music and ender music. You can use Audacity to fade it in and out. I assume there are a ton of tutorials on how to do basic stuff in Audacity. I think it's the most widely used such program (probably because it's free.)
    Export it as an MP3 to my PC
    Upload it to libsyn.com, where we have an account that we pay for (though there are also free ones). They host the podcast (and our gleemanandthegeek.com page.) Libsyn gives us our statistics, too. I like libsyn.com, but there are plenty of other options and when people list them, I rarely hear libsyn mentioned. But they've worked great for us. Whoever you pick, once you get subscribers, you'll probably want to stick with them.
    In the past, we submitted the RSS of that Libsyn feed to iTunes, who approved it in a couple of days. (I don't know what their approval standards are, but I don't think they care if you are getting many downloads.) When someone downloads it (or subscribes) from them, it points to libsyn.

     
    There are lots of other ways to do this. If you're not doing it from bars, one of which I mention in the video. Also, if you and your friend need to talk remotely, one can also do it using Skype, though I'm not sure how exactly. There is also BlogTalkRadio.com, which Seth has used in the past. They allow you to essentially call into your show, and you can field calls, etc. (You can also upload files there if you want.)
     
    Hopefully, that's enough to get you started. If you have any questions, feel free to ask them below. I'll try to respond as best I can.
  11. The easy reaction to the news that the Twins and Kevin Correia have agreed to a 2-year/$10 million deal is to overreact. I still plan to. But before I go down that path, I want to remind myself about paradigms.
     
    A paradigm is the story around the story that impacts our perceptions. The classic example (I think from Stephen Covey) is that while riding the subway, he saw the father of several small children watching them passively as they misbehaved quite badly on the subway. People were getting angry at the children and even angrier at his indifference. That perception, and the entire car’s reaction, changed when it became clear he and the children were coming from the hospital, where they had said their last goodbyes to his wife, their mom.
     
    A paradigm is the story the conman spins to make us think that doing something stupid is doing something smart. It can also lead to overreaction, as Aaron Gleeman and I discussed on our most recent podcast. We recalled the overwhelmingly negative reaction nationally and locally when the Twins drafted Ben Revere.
     
    Some of that reaction was undoubtedly driven by two paradigms in vogue at the time. First, that the Twins were cheap, and thus overdrafted Revere to save money. And second was that they were enamored with speedy piranhas over power. Ultimately, it isn’t clear that either was true, and it certainly isn’t clear that Revere was a good example of either.
     
    Here’s an interesting thought experiment. What if the paradigms at the time had been different? For instance, what if the Twins had the reputation of the “Moneyball” A’s? Had the A’s signed Revere, it would have been example of them recognizing the value of speed and defense, getting an underrated contributor in those overlooked areas at a bargain price. (And ultimately flipping him for more than he was worth.) It might well have been a love-fest.
     
    That’s the power – and the trap – of a paradigm.
     
    The signing of Correia faces a similar challenge. The current popular paradigms for the Twins are that they love “pitch to contact” starters and that they are cheap. Correia represents the worst of both of those philosophies. So, before I overreact, let me just say that I’m aware of these paradigms. I’m aware of their power. And I’m aware that neither paradigm is really true, with plenty of counter-examples. I’m even aware that Kevin Correia is not Jason Marquis.
     
    So what am I left with? Unfortunately, I think I’m left with Kevin Correia signed for two-years and $10 million.
     
    Correia's ERA over the last two years is 4.49 and that’s pitching in the National League. He wasn’t bad because he was unlucky. Instead, on those off-years where he’s been good, it’s because he has been lucky. And he’s never pitched in the AL.
     
    I guess he’s been fairly durable. However, just because you can make every start doesn’t mean you should, a lesson that the Pirates seemingly learned when they moved him to the bullpen after the trade deadline.
     
    And while there is room for a guy like that on the bottom end of a pitching staff, it isn’t on a multi-year deal. This is not dissimilar to the Twins signing Marquis last year. Except that Marquis wasn’t kicked off of the starting rotation the year before. And he had a better year. And he wasn’t given a multi-year deal.
     
    I get that the starting pitching market is drying up. I get that the Twins need someone to eat some innings. And I get that the most vitriolic critics will wallow in paradigms that aren’t really justified.
     
    But here’s something else that isn’t justified – giving Kevin Correia a two-year deal and 10 million dollars.
  12. Aaron and John talk about the Twins trading Ben Revere to the Phillies for Vance Worley and Trevor May, what it means for team's 2013 plans, how much everyone is counting on Aaron Hicks, what John and Aaron did after the last podcast, why Darrin Mastroianni suddenly has a big role, what the farm system looks like after back-to-back big trades, the Rule 5 draft, whether Justin Morneau and Josh Willingham are next up on the trading block, and John's dog's digestive system. Here are:
     
     

    the podcasts
    the rss feed if you want to subscribe and
    the podcast on iTunes.

  13. The Minnesota Twins might be looking back to the good old days wistfully for a reason other than wanting to relive their decade of glory. For instance, signing free agents used to be a relatively orderly business:
     

    Teams that needed a great pitcher would chase the best (or best remaining) pitcher, hoping to get him.
    One team would get him.
    Lather. Rinse. Repeat.

     
    That’s oversimplifying a little, but in general, free agents would sign from the top down. In fact, free agents might wait to sign until the guys above them signed, knowing the remaining teams would probably chase him, driving up his demand.
     
    But the market has matured. General managers seem to have a willingness to sign a slightly lower level or pitcher rather than be shut out of a better one. Meanwhile, free agents recognize their value a little better, are willing to take snap up a generous offer early (and probably like the lack of risk that comes with it.) It might also be that teams are recognizing the value that can come in from the second and third tier pitchers exceeds that which can come from the top guys.
     
    Whatever the reason, it sure isn’t top down this year. Here is the starting pitching free agent list I used when I started making the list for the TwinsCentric Offseason Handbook. They are roughly sorted in order of desirability. The crossed out names are the guys that have signed with someone.
     
     

    Zack Greinke
    Anibal Sanchez
    Jake Peavy
    Edwin Jackson
    Ryan Dempster
    Hiroki Kuroda
    Kyle Lohse
    Brandon McCarthy

     
     

    Ervin Santana
    Dan Haren
    Shaun Marcum
    Joe Blanton
    Jeremy Guthrie
    Scott Baker
    Colby Lewis
    Joe Saunders

     
     

    Carl Pavano
    Francisco Liriano
    Scott Feldman
    Carlos Villanueva
    Chris Young
    Roy Oswalt
    Kevin Millwood
    Erik Bedard

     
     

    Bartolo Colon
    Kevin Correia
    Derek Lowe
    Jason Marquis
    Daisuke Matsuzaka
    Carlos Zambrano
    Freddy Garcia
    Jeff Francis

     
     

    Roberto Hernandez
    Chien-Ming Wang
    Aaron Cook
    Jamie Moyer
    Jonathan Sanchez
    Kip Wells
    Randy Wolf

     
    It isn’t the top tier that has signed – only two of those guys have signed already. It’s the second-tier that has been snapped up so far. Another fell yesterday, when Joe Blanton, clearly a second/third tier guy signed with a team that was linked to a lot of top-tier talent, the Angels.
     
    Overall, this feels like bad news for the Twins. The Twins have never chased top-tier talent, as they are (probably justifiably) hesitant to commit to the long-term deals that talent demands. But now the second tier is almost completely spoken for. This leaves third-tier talent, or non-tendered pitchers, all of which are by definition third-tier guys.
     
    The hope might be that it goes the other way. Perhaps some of the guys at the top will find their demand slipping away somewhat as top-tier teams gravitate toward the middle of the list. But from the rumor coming out of the winter meetings, it doesn’t sound like any of these guys are lacking for suitors right now.
     
    It seems more and more like the Twins choice is to overpay or to settle, and settling now means going to third and fourth tier pitchers. This further raises the question whether the Twins should place much hope in 2013 or look forward to 2014, and what that does to their offseason strategy.
  14. It was the second big trade of the offseason for the Minnesota Twins, and the second concrete indicator to the league and to fans that General Manager Terry Ryan is looking beyond 2013. Indeed, it was the second time in which a trade likely made the Twins worse for the 2013, instead of better.

    Which is odd, because it was a great trade. Ben Revere has plenty of value, but was not without question marks and could be replaceable as early as the second half of this year. The pitchers the Twins received in return, Vance Worley and Trevor May, are also not without question marks, but they’re exactly what the Twins needed to get – young, cheap pitching that can contribute in the majors.
     
    But the Twins offseason has seemingly pivoted since the TwinsCentric interview with Terry Ryan. If the focus for the organization is not on 2013, then what does the future hold for Justin Morneau, who becomes a free agent following this season? Let’s see have a looks at the pros and cons with which the front office might be wrestling…
     
    Pro: 2013 is toast….
    Con: ….but you might still want people to come to the ballpark.
     
    As starting pitching free agents are snapped up, the Twins are increasingly unlikely to compete in 2013. But the Twins are also just starting their fourth year in their new stadium, have the All-Star Game coming in 2014, and are looking to rebound soon after with the prospects that are brimming from their minor leagues.
     
    It’s always a lot easier to retain customers than to get new ones. Morneau, besides serving as a veteran presence in the clubhouse for new players, can bridge that competitive gap for fans, especially those casual fans who might be more cynical about the future of the team. It doesn’t hurt that he and his wife are well-liked and active in the community. He is more than just another bat – he’s an ambassador at an especially fragile time for the organization.
     
    Pro: He can be replaced by Chris Parmelee….
    Con: ….but who replaces Chris Parmelee?
     
    The Twins have a left-handed first baseman in the wings, Chris Parmelee, who launched himself up the prospect charts with a monster season in AAA-Rochester last year. But with both Denard Span and Revere gone, Parmelee already has a spot waiting for him in the outfield. What’s more, the prospect mostly likely to be ready in 2013, Aaron Hicks, is already earmarked to move into center field.
     
    If Parmelee moves to first, that means filling his spot with either Joe Benson, who had a terrible 2012 in Rochester and AA-New Britain, or Oswaldo Arcia, who is only a half year removed from High A-Fort Myers. Both COULD get a shot, and both might if the Twins look at 2013 as a year to invest in youngsters. But neither is a great bet to thrive real soon.
     
    Pro: Teams are looking for big bats…
    Con: ….but will be looking for big bats at the trade deadline, too.
     
    There is really only one good first baseman on the free agent market – Adam LaRoche – and he seems to have no lack of suitors. One of them, the Orioles, has already been linked to Morneau in trade rumors, for whatever that is worth. The Twins told reporters not to believe everything they hear, but they said that about trading Revere, too. There is a market for Morneau.
     
    But the market could be there in July, too. At that point, he’ll hopefully have four more healthy months behind him. If he hits like he did the second half of last year, he’ll have a track record to generate plenty of interest. (Hell, if that’s the case, the Twins might even think of extending him.) Finally, he won’t cost his new team $14M, but closer to $5M, making him that much more attractive.
    Hmm… speaking of money…..
     
    Pro: He’s owed $14M this season….
    Con: ….but the Twins aren’t going to spend it anyway….
    Pro: ….unless they use it to pay Morneau on his new team.
     
    The biggest single reason to consider trading Morneau this offseason was to free up $14M to spend on starting pitching. Even if the Twins traded Morneau for nothing, the $14M would have been enough to get a top flight pitcher, like Dan Haren, who signed a one-year deal this week for less than that.

    But now, that $14M likely isn’t leaving the Twins coffers. Frontline starting pitching isn’t just expensive – it’s expensive long-term. Ryan fears giving players contracts that are one or two years longer than is sane, and it appears that will be the case for the majority of top pitchers remaining. At this point, it’s debatable if the Twins are going to spend the $20-30M we thought they would. An extra $14M isn’t going to help.
     
    But on the third hand, this would free up the Twins to make the kind of trade that (to my knowledge) they have NEVER done. They could trade away a big contract, but pick up a chunk of the cost for an excellent prospect. The Orioles might not be willing to give up much for a $14M Morneau. The might give up a tremendous amount for a $10M Morneau.
     
    So which way do you go? To me, the path isn’t clear, but the answer is. The answer? “He’s available, for the right price.” That’s what the answer has been for the better part of six months now, and the price has been too high. With the Twins new focus on 2014 and beyond, I won’t be surprised if some new customers don’t stop by to see just how available Morneau might be.

  15. Rock Versus Hard Place

    · John Bonnes · 12/04/2012 01:00 PM

    One of the more interesting times in every offseason is when the rhetoric goes away and the choices become, often painfully, clear. Rock, meet Hard Place.
     
    The Hard Place is where the Twins are: fronting a rotation with Scott Diamond next year. Diamond, by Twins general manager Terry Ryan’s own analysis, is a #3 starter. He’s clearly scouring the winter meetings for upgrades. But like Charlie Brown at Halloween, all he’s getting is a whole lot of Rock.
     
    Here are the available pitchers who could be considered an upgrade over Scott Diamond. (FYI – These guys are all profiled in the TwinsCentric Offseason Handbook.) Tell me which one you think the Twins should go after.
     
     

    Zack Greinke – Will likely get a nine-figure deal over at least six years.
    Jake Peavy – Re-signed with the White Sox for 2 years at $29M with a vesting option for a 3rd year.
    Hiroki Kuroda – Re-signed with the Yankees for 1-year/$15M.
    Dan Haren – Available. He’s getting “getting interest from lotsa East-coast clubs.”
    James Shields – Only available via trade, and probably not to the Twins after they traded away Denard Span.
    Edwin Jackson – Available. Most recently rumored to be courted by the Angels.
    Anibal Sanchez – Reportedly called a 4-year/$48 million offer from the Tigers a few weeks ago “insulting.” Says he is seeking a 6-year/$90M offer.
    RA Dickey – Available via trade from the Mets. The price for him is “very high.”
    Brandon McCarthy – Still available. However, several teams have expressed an interest in him including “the Red Sox, the White Sox, the Cubs, the Royals, the Diamondbacks and the Twins – and the Angels and Rangers are also expected to join in.”
    Ryan Dempster – The 35-year-old has been linked with the Twins, Diamondbacks and Brewers and is searching for a 3-year deal, likely for around $13M per year.
    Kyle Lohse – Represented by Scott Boras. ‘Nuff said.

     
    If you’re looking for some trends to take from this, it appears that each of these guys (with the possible exception of Haren or maybe McCarthy) is pushing for (and probably likely to get) $13-$15M per year. Also, each is looking for a deal at least one year longer than any fiscally sane club would want to give them.
     
    This is the “interesting” time, or, if you prefer, “hellish.” It’s looking more and more like teams are going to need to pay to play. We can look at a 5-year/$65M deal for Jackson or a 3-year/$33 million deal for McCarthy and say that’s “crazy,” and we’re probably right. But we can’t do that and then rip Ryan for not upgrading the rotation, or settling for names like Brett Myers, Kevin Correia, Joe Blanton or John Lannan. This is the way free agency works. The vast majority are overpaid. It is the nature of the system. When a player signs with the one team that offers him the most money, instead of the 29 that don’t, odds are that player is overpaid.
     
    We can rip the Twins for putting themselves into this position – this is why minor league development is so important – but that ship has sailed. If we want to focus on the problem at hand, the choices seem to be overpay or settle. Rock or Hard Place.
     
    Which way are you going to go?
  16. Aaron and John record an emergency podcast to talk about the trade sending Denard Span to the Nationals for pitching prospect Alex Meyer, what it means for Chris Parmelee, how Span went from prospect bust to underrated big leaguer, why letter grades for prospects can lead to arguments, dropping Deolis Guerra from the 40-man roster, adding Jeff Clement for Triple-A depth, and why Hulkamania will never die. Here are:
     
     

    the podcasts
    the rss feed if you want to subscribe and
    the podcast on iTunes.

  18. 1
     
    Free agent starting pitchers from the TwinsCentric 2013 Offseason Handbook that have signed with a new team.
     
    It’s just Scott Baker so far. That’s it. I count five other are already off the market, but all of them re-signed with their old team (or had their option picked up and were traded): Jake Peavy, Hideki Kuroda, Hisahi Iwakuma, Ervin Santana and Jeremy Guthrie.
     
    The bad news here is that a lot of those guys are the middle market - a level just below the big names where bargains might have been found. But that might be why they were already targeted and re-signed.
     
     
    24
     
    Free agent starting pitchers from the TwinsCentric Offseason Handbook that are still available.
     
    That doesn’t mean there are 25 of them that are desirable, just available. But that doesn’t include those that we thought would retire or get minor league deals, and it doesn’t include guys who are available via trade, like several of the Rays or Braves arms.
     
    I can’t emphasize this enough – the free agent market hasn’t really started yet. It likely won’t for a few more weeks. According to ESPN’s free agent tracker, a total of 12 guys have signed major league deals so far. Last year 106 did. Cool it.
     
     
    483
     
    Twins minor league signing stories broken by MLB.com’s Twins beat reporter Rhett Bollinger in the past month. (Roughly)
     
    Is it possible that the greatest culprit for the Twins slow offseason is Bollinger? By continually reporting minor league signings – which were often overlooked in previous years – we are reminded that none of the big moves have been made yet.
     
     
    29
     
    The age of Jeff Clement, who the Twins signed to minor league deal yesterday.
     
    If that name sounds familiar, it is because he was a “B” catching prospect who ranked #33/#62/#42 on Baseball America’s top 100 list from 2006 through 2008. He had 20 home run power, hit left-handed and was “good enough” defensively.
     
    Turns out, he wasn’t, or if he was, recurring elbow and knee injuries drove him away from that spot. He’s now a first baseman and designated hitter and hasn’t upped the power (and oddly has struggled against right-handers). That makes a guy a 29-year-old minor leaguer instead of a possible All-Star. There is good news and bad news in this signing for Twins fans, and neither has anything to do with all the studly free agent starting pitchers they didn’t sign:
     
    Good news: the Twins are signing recognizable names with a little upside as minor league free agents. They should. A 60+ win team should mean lots of opportunities for minor league veterans to gain some service time and be in The Show. It should be a team that agents target. But it’s good that the Twins are taking advantage of that status. The Twins picked up a couple of useful players that way last year and will likely need to so again this year.
     
    Bad news: Clement’s status emphasizes, once again, just how big the difference in value is for a guy who can play catcher and a guy who can’t. Think about that the next time someone tries to convince you that the Twins would be better if Joe Mauer would get out from behind the plate.
  20. [video=youtube;DD132ReLx9s]
    To hear the actual podcast, go to http://gleemanandthegeek.com/
     
    After recording the 68th episode of their "Gleeman and The Geek" podcast Aaron Gleeman and John Bonnes are joined by documentary filmmaker Nathan Fisher for a "Cribs"-like tour of Gleemanor.
  21. Torii Hunter had 12 or 13 teams chasing after him?!? And signed for two years and $26M? Then how much must Josh Willingham, who hit twice as many home runs as Hunter last year and makes half as much, be worth?
     
    I thought of this question on Sunday as I was podcasting with Aaron Gleeman. A quick look at the top free agent outfielders made me even more interested. Below are the top five free agent outfielders. Let’s go through them as a general manager who is looking for right-handed power in an outfielder. We’ll bold the ones that fit that description….
     
     

    Josh Hamilton – Left-handed AND ridiculously expensive
    Curtis Granderson – Not available.
    BJ Upton – Perfect – If you’re willing to pay 6 years and $90M.
    Michael Bourn – Great centerfielder, but no power.
    Nick Swisher – Switch-hitter, quite a bit of power who will likely need a four-year deal. (He also hits better as a left-hander.)

     
    Those are the guys that I thought would make more than Hunter this offseason. Compared to them, Willingham – who hit more home runs than Upton or Swisher – looks like a effective but much more affordable and risk-adverse solution.
     
    Unfortunately, just below that level are a few names that a general manager could turn to if they miss out on the big names…
     
     

    Cody Ross – Right-handed and hit 22 home runs last year, albeit in Fenway.
    Shane Victorino – No power.
    Angel Pagan – Not enough power.
    Ichiro Suzuki – Not enough power any more.
    Melky Cabrera – Signed.
    Ryan Ludwick – Right-handed and hit 26 home runs last year, albeit in Great American Ballpark.
    Delmon Young – Right-handed and hit 18 home runs last year in Comerica Park.

     
    Even though he hit quite a few more home runs in a tougher ballpark, Willingham is not viewed as significantly different than Ross, Ludwick and Young. And all three of those guys will get contracts similar or less than Willingham’s. The Twins took advantage of that perception last offseason when they Twins were able to sign Willingham to his affordable deal.
     
    Also, Willingham's defense looks pretty bad, though it isn’t terrible according to metrics like UZR, which says he cost the Twins just 8 runs over the average left fielder. Still, that perception could limit National League teams interest.
     
    The bottom line is that if a GM is looking to add some right-handed pop to his lineup, there are some other options. While they might not be as good, they also aren’t going to cost a blue chip prospect and they aren’t going to break the bank. If Twins fans want to see a big return for Willingham, this offseason probably isn’t the best time to trade him, despite the interest there was in Hunter.

  23. The Twins Binary Hope

    · John Bonnes · 11/13/2012 05:54 AM

    In the latest Gleeman and the Geek podcast, Aaron Gleeman and I argued, as we are apt to do. Among the questions raised was one that stuck with me: what is the goal of baseball’s regular season? Certainly, it is to make the playoffs, but beyond that, is there an advantage to posting a high win total?
     
    The answer to that question influences the path one thinks the Twins should travel this offseason. The AL Central champion had only 88 wins last year, the lowest amount for any division. It is not unlikely that could happen again next year. It is not unreasonable to suggest that even coming off of a 66 win season, by piecing together even a mediocre rotation, the Twins could improve to a mid-80s win team.
     
    But is that good enough? Or does a team need to win 90+ games to be taken seriously as a champion?
     
    To be honest, I have no idea. Aaron and I have gone back and forth on it throughout the year and again on Sunday night. On the one hand, it makes sense that a better team (one with more wins) would be favored versus a worse team. (Vegas certainly thinks so.) Furthermore, over several games, that advantage would could be more pronounced.
     
    On the other hand, it’s often said that playoffs are random. There are certainly enough counterexamples of underdogs who have held parades at the end of October, including this year.
     
    It occurred to me today that this is something we can test, and it may provide a pretty definitive answer. Best of all, it isn’t that difficult to do. Here’s how….
     
    (Warning: high level stats discussion coming.)
     
    One sabrmetric tool used a LOT is called a correlation test. A correlation test compares two sequenced sets of data and sees what kind of relationships the two sets of data have. It is by using correlation tests that sabremetrics can definitively say that OBP or SLG is more important than BA, because it more closely correlates with the runs a team score. It is also by a correlation test the we know that xFIP is a slightly better predictor of future ERA than ERA is. We’re going to use it to compare wins in the regular season to series wins in the playoffs.
     
    I’ll link to the data once our web master posts it on our server. It’ll consist of all the playoff teams from 1996 through 2012, along with their playoff series wins and also their regular season wins.* We’ll run a correlation test on those two sets of numbers, and the test will return a value somewhere between -1 and 1:
     

    The closer to 1, the more regular season wins translates to playoffs success. For instance, comparing temperatures in Celsius to temperatures in Fahrenheit would have a correlation of 1. Not only does one go up when one goes down, but it goes up or down proportionally the same.
    The closer to -1, then regular season wins would have a negative correlation to playoff series wins. For instance, comparing how much I cumulatively spend to my checking balance would have a correlation of -1. The higher the amount I spend, the more my checking balance goes down.
    The closer to 0, the more regular season wins and playoff series wins just aren’t related. If I were to compare the total wins of a team to the numbers of migratory monarch butterflies for each city, I would expect the number to be close to 0. The two sets of data mean nothing to each other.

     
    So what do you think it will be? Take your guess, before I do the work. I’m guessing a fairly small correlation, somewhere around .25, which would be similar to the correlation that SABR folks use to conclude that pitchers can’t control if balls in play are hits.
     
    (Off to enter data and do the math….)
     
    Wow. The answer is actually quite a bit lower than that. The answer is just .07. Winning more games - being a 95 game winner versus an 85 game winner – affords a team almost no advantage in terms of advancing in the playoffs. If I wanted to drive home just how random this is (and I had a little more patience) I could compare the series wins to other ridiculous pieces of data for each team and find one that had a higher correlation. I’d venture to bet that one of these four items would have a higher correlation: team batting average, team errors, average height, or total letters in the names of all the players on 25-man roster. That’s how ridiculously low this correlation is.
     
    To me, that means that success in MLB isn’t qualitative - it’s binary. Either a team makes the playoffs, and thus has a pretty even chance to win a championship, or it doesn’t. To give extra credit for wins is akin to giving extra credit for something like team batting average or how many ex-Twins they have – you might find it interesting, but that doesn’t mean it is important.
     
    It also suggests that if you think the Twins can win the AL Central next year, then a complete overhaul might not be in order. A team does not need to be razed and rebuilt and win 95 games to position themselves to be a champion. Indeed, it earns them almost nothing at all. They just need to be good enough to get into the postseason, even if it’s in a poor division.

    ~~~


     
    *(Three geek notes about the data I used. First, I did all the teams since the wild card began. Second, I skipped 1995 because they didn’t play 162 games, and since I was using win total instead of win percentage, that would have produced skewed data. And finally, for 2012, I only used the two wild card teams who won their playoff wild card game.)
  24. Aaron and John talk about trade rumors, last week's aftermath and "the older gentleman" not paying his bar tab, terrible facial hair, local media moves, which starting pitchers Twins fans should dream about, having a Joe Maddon fetish, Claire Forlani and effective advertising, Denard Span versus James Shields, targeting Braves and Rays, and where to hide the dead prostitutes before next week's episode. Here are:
     
     

    the podcasts
    the rss feed if you want to subscribe and
    the podcast on iTunes.

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