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Everything posted by Jeremy Nygaard
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A pretty quiet day in Twins Territory today. But there were two games in the system, led by both a dominant - and needed - pitching performance and a walk-off win. Tyler Jay was named Florida State League Pitcher of the Week. This comes on the heels of an 11-strikeout, two-hit outing that spanned eight shutout inningsLet’s get to the action on the field. RED WINGS REPORT Rochester 6, Buffalo 2 Box Score Jose Berrios hasn’t had the 2016 that many of us - him included - had been expecting. Hopefully his season turned a corner on Monday night. Berrios pitched eight innings, his longest outing of the season. He struck out 11 and only allowed three hits (though two of them were solo home runs to Casey Kotchman), walking only one. Berrios improved to 4-2 in AAA this season. The Red Wings got on the board in the second inning thanks to an Adam Brett Walker sacrifice fly that scored Eddie Rosario, who had singled and stole a base earlier in the inning. Rochester plated two more in the third inning when Jorge Polanco singled in both James Beresford, who singled to start the inning, and Logan Schafer, who doubled. John Ryan Murphy drove in Walker in the fourth inning to expand the lead to 4-0. The Red Wings added two more runs: a Schafer home run in the sixth and an RBI double from Murphy which drove in Wilfredo Tovar, who also doubled, in the seventh. Schafer had three hits on Monday, and now has two home runs in four games for the Wings. Polanco, Tovar and Murphy all had two-hit games. J.T. Chargois closed the game with a perfect ninth inning. His AAA ERA is 0.82. There’s literally no reason that the Twins should not bring him up. The Red Wings have improved to 33-25, expanding their IL North lead to 1.5 games. CHATTANOOGA CHATTER Chattanooga 3, Jacksonville 2 (11 innings) Box Score The Lookouts opened the scoring on Monday night thanks to a Daniel Palka…. sacrifice fly. (No home run this time.) It scored Zach Granite, who singled to lead off the bottom half of the 1st inning. Jacksonville tied it in the fourth and jumped ahead 2-1 in the fifth. Ryan Eades, making his return from an oblique injury, gave up just one run in four innings of work. He struck out one and walked two. Raul Fernandez, making his AA debut in the Twins organization, gave up one run in two innings. Then the bullpen took over. Levi Michael doubled and then scored on a Leo Reginatto hit to tie the score in the bottom half of the fifth inning. The game quieted down, helped by the Miralcle trio of Mason Melotakis, Jake Reed (two strikeouts in two innings) and Trevor Hildenberger (four strikeouts, two innings). But it got loud again in the bottom of the 11th inning. Mitch Garver started the inning with a single, Ryan Walker tried to bunt Garver over, but Jacksonville retired the lead runner leaving Walker on first. After a Stuart Turner walk, Michael stepped to the plate and delivered a game-winner. Granite and Reginatto both had three hits. D.J Hicks, Garver and Levi Michael all had two hits. The Lookouts are now 27-30, MIRACLE MATTERS Fort Myers vs Daytona Monday night’s game was cancelled due to Tropical Storm Colin. The teams are not scheduled to play each other again in the first half of the season, so the game will not be rescheduled. KERNELS NUGGETS Cedar Rapids - DAY OFF TWINS DAILY PLAYERS OF THE DAY Pitcher of the Day – Jose Berrios, Rochester Hitter of the Day – Levi Michael, Chattanooga TUESDAY’S PROBABLE STARTERS Buffalo at Rochester (6:05PM CST) – LHP Logan Darnell (5-5, 3.58 ERA)J Jacksonville at Chattanooga (6:15PM CST) - LHP David Hurlbut (3-3, 4.53 ERA) Cedar Rapids at Beloit (6:35PM CST) – LHP Sam Clay (3-2, 2.13 ERA) Please feel free to ask any questions and discuss Monday’s games. Click here to view the article
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Twins Minor League Report (6/6) - Berrios Shines, Michael Walks-off
Jeremy Nygaard posted an article in Minors
Let’s get to the action on the field. RED WINGS REPORT Rochester 6, Buffalo 2 Box Score Jose Berrios hasn’t had the 2016 that many of us - him included - had been expecting. Hopefully his season turned a corner on Monday night. Berrios pitched eight innings, his longest outing of the season. He struck out 11 and only allowed three hits (though two of them were solo home runs to Casey Kotchman), walking only one. Berrios improved to 4-2 in AAA this season. The Red Wings got on the board in the second inning thanks to an Adam Brett Walker sacrifice fly that scored Eddie Rosario, who had singled and stole a base earlier in the inning. Rochester plated two more in the third inning when Jorge Polanco singled in both James Beresford, who singled to start the inning, and Logan Schafer, who doubled. John Ryan Murphy drove in Walker in the fourth inning to expand the lead to 4-0. The Red Wings added two more runs: a Schafer home run in the sixth and an RBI double from Murphy which drove in Wilfredo Tovar, who also doubled, in the seventh. Schafer had three hits on Monday, and now has two home runs in four games for the Wings. Polanco, Tovar and Murphy all had two-hit games. J.T. Chargois closed the game with a perfect ninth inning. His AAA ERA is 0.82. There’s literally no reason that the Twins should not bring him up. The Red Wings have improved to 33-25, expanding their IL North lead to 1.5 games. CHATTANOOGA CHATTER Chattanooga 3, Jacksonville 2 (11 innings) Box Score The Lookouts opened the scoring on Monday night thanks to a Daniel Palka…. sacrifice fly. (No home run this time.) It scored Zach Granite, who singled to lead off the bottom half of the 1st inning. Jacksonville tied it in the fourth and jumped ahead 2-1 in the fifth. Ryan Eades, making his return from an oblique injury, gave up just one run in four innings of work. He struck out one and walked two. Raul Fernandez, making his AA debut in the Twins organization, gave up one run in two innings. Then the bullpen took over. Levi Michael doubled and then scored on a Leo Reginatto hit to tie the score in the bottom half of the fifth inning. The game quieted down, helped by the Miralcle trio of Mason Melotakis, Jake Reed (two strikeouts in two innings) and Trevor Hildenberger (four strikeouts, two innings). But it got loud again in the bottom of the 11th inning. Mitch Garver started the inning with a single, Ryan Walker tried to bunt Garver over, but Jacksonville retired the lead runner leaving Walker on first. After a Stuart Turner walk, Michael stepped to the plate and delivered a game-winner. Granite and Reginatto both had three hits. D.J Hicks, Garver and Levi Michael all had two hits. The Lookouts are now 27-30, MIRACLE MATTERS Fort Myers vs Daytona Monday night’s game was cancelled due to Tropical Storm Colin. The teams are not scheduled to play each other again in the first half of the season, so the game will not be rescheduled. KERNELS NUGGETS Cedar Rapids - DAY OFF TWINS DAILY PLAYERS OF THE DAY Pitcher of the Day – Jose Berrios, Rochester Hitter of the Day – Levi Michael, Chattanooga TUESDAY’S PROBABLE STARTERS Buffalo at Rochester (6:05PM CST) – LHP Logan Darnell (5-5, 3.58 ERA)J Jacksonville at Chattanooga (6:15PM CST) - LHP David Hurlbut (3-3, 4.53 ERA) Cedar Rapids at Beloit (6:35PM CST) – LHP Sam Clay (3-2, 2.13 ERA) Please feel free to ask any questions and discuss Monday’s games. -
Typically when a player signs out of high school, part of their contract includes 8 semesters at a college of the player's choice. They just call the commissioner's office and let them know they've enrolled and BOOM, it's paid. College guys usually negotiate to get the rest of their semesters paid for too.
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Article: Twins Daily Draft Preview: The Board
Jeremy Nygaard replied to Jeremy Nygaard's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Lauer seems like the most anti-Thrylos/pro-Twins-of-2011 draft picks that's available. While I have nothing against him personally, I'd prefer to throw $3 million at a guy with upside.- 20 replies
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In previous years, instead of me putting my own board together, I tried to gather enough information to accurately predict how the Twins would stack their board. While I’ll never know how accurate I was, my opinion is that I wasn’t too far off.This year is different. Obviously, when the Twins are picking fourth, fifth or sixth, there are only so many players and combinations of them that can go before the Twins were picking. Drafting at 15 makes things more difficult. Having a handful of players whose signability is being questioned makes it infinitely more difficult. Even as the draft approaches - it’s only three days away! - it’s being described as being a “long ways away.” Seems ridiculous, right? Not really. There are still a number of high school pitchers who have unknown price tags. We heard last week that the Twins weren’t going to be able to get Manning done with their draft slot at 15. It’s entirely possible that we could be adding more prep pitchers into that category as the week progresses. Why is that happening? Because the teams at the top of the draft - the Phillies, Braves and Reds - have so much money that they can spread it out among their first few picks, essentially taking players off the board before they’re selected. So even if the Twins have settled on their Top 15, there’s a strong chance that none of those players are actually “available” when the Twins come to the podium. Make sense? What you’re going to see below is not a guess at how the Twins have their board stacked, but instead how I would stack my own board… with the caveat that whichever player is drafted will sign for slot at pick 15. I know that’s an impossibility, but without knowing every player that has a high price tag, this is the best way to fairly assess the talent. 1) A.J. Puk, LHP, Florida. I’m not totally sold on Puk - especially after his last start - but you could do worse than taking a left-handed pitcher who throws mid-90s. The combination of ceiling and floor makes Puk the relatively easy choice to take first overall. 2) Jason Groome, LHP, New Jersey HS. I debated Groome vs Pint as top prep pitcher, but Groome’s curveball and the fact he’s young for his class gives him a ceiling of an ace-starter and there are never enough of them. 3) Kyle Lewis, OF, Mercer. Sure, he hasn’t played against the best competition and that magnifies some of the questions about his bat, but his no one can match his ceiling as a hitter and he appears athletic enough to stay in center field. 4) Riley Pint, RHP, Kansas HS. It’s hard to look at a prep pitcher who throws 100+ and not assume he’s going to need Tommy John surgery sometime soon. For me, it’s hard to look at Pint and not think he’s going to be Max Scherzer in a handful of years. If Pint was a little more consistent with his breaking stuff, I’d rank him above Groome. 5) Corey Ray, OF, Louisville. Ray doesn’t have Lewis’s loud power tool. In fact, he lacks any significant carrying tool (unless you want to count his speed). What Ray offers, though, is enough with the bat and glove to project him with an MLB floor, which isn’t easy to do. 6) Nick Senzel, 3B, Tennessee. Senzel’s calling card is his hit tool and there is a lack of that quality in this draft. Good enough to stick on the left side of the infield, Senzel is another high-floor, top-10 pick. 7) Mickey Moniak, OF, California HS. Moniak has the chops to stay in center field and has the hit tool to project as an everyday player, though he’ll probably not add much power as he develops. 8) Braxton Garrett, LHP, Alabama HS. Garrett is the safest of all the prep arms, equipped with a MLB-ready curveball already. The Twins would love him at 15, if he’s available. 9) Delvin Perez, SS, Puerto Rico HS. Young but unfairly compared to Carlos Correa, Perez may have the highest ceiling in the whole class. Will he hit though? 10) Justin Dunn, RHP, Boston College. People are going to do the “another reliever” thing with Dunn if the Twins pick him, but his electric arm is quickly becoming a favorite of mine. For being a relatively fresh arm (that can run it up to 99 mph), he offers a high floor to go with an extremely high ceiling. 11) Ian Anderson, RHP, New York HS. I tried not to dock Anderson for his signability questions and when lined up with Dunn, I have them ranked very closely. Dunn, though smaller, gave me less durability concerns than Anderson, which is why I rank Anderson one spot lower. 12) Alex Kirilloff, OF, Pennsylvania HS. Kirilloff projects to be a good hitter with potential plus power and a good enough arm to play right field. Though I’d always err on the side of pitching, Kirilloff is one hitter who may be on the board at 15 that I’m sold on. 13) Dakota Hudson, P, Mississippi State. I had come around on Hudson before he struggled in his last start. He battles with command, but I’ve been told he may have the best “stuff” in the draft. My concern is the Twins would try to clean up the delivery in hopes that it will improve command, but instead it will cause his “stuff” to play down. 14) Blake Rutherford, OF, California HS. Rutherford is a year older than most other prep players and appears to be physically mature, so there isn’t as much upside as you’d typically get with a high schooler. There’s still a lot of things to like in his bat - I’m just not as sold as some others. 15) Matt Manning, RHP, California HS. I always feel like there’s more to unlock in multi-sport starts and Manning, who is committed to play both baseball and hoops at Loyola Marymount, has plenty of raw ability already, hitting 98 mph with his fastball. I believe Manning has a deal with the Padres. 16) Cal Quantrill, RHP, Stanford. Quantrill missed the season after undergoing Tommy John surgery, but was a legitimate Top 5 candidate before the injury. He has the upside on a #1 starter and likely won’t make his professional debut until Spring Training 2017, nearly 23 months following his procedure. 17) Zack Collins, C, Miami. Collins has the bat to profile as a big-leaguer, but there are questions about his defensive home. He’ll need time to develop behind the plate, but teams might want to push his bat through their system quicker, shifting him to a corner, likely first base. 18) Zack Burdi, RHP, Louisville. Guys who can throw triple-digits and profile with a clean enough delivery have to be considered first-round picks. While Burdi’s ultimate home is probably in the bullpen, he’s an intriguing option for teams in the middle of the first round. 19) Joey Wentz, LHP, Kansas HS. It’s hard not to factor signability into ranking Wentz, who is committed to Virginia. He’s backed off the mid-90s that he was throwing early in his season, but still offers the upside of a front-end starter. 20) Forrest Whitley, RHP, Texas HS. The big-bodied Texan beat out a number of college pitchers for the last spot on this list. There are conditioning questions, but he’s got present ability that projects to play up as he continues to work his body into shape. Just missed: Cody Sedlock, RHP, Illinois and T.J. Zeuch, RHP, Pittsburgh Other draft-related articles: Local Profiles Zack Burdi Zack Collins Prep Arms 10-round mock What does your board look like? Click here to view the article
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This year is different. Obviously, when the Twins are picking fourth, fifth or sixth, there are only so many players and combinations of them that can go before the Twins were picking. Drafting at 15 makes things more difficult. Having a handful of players whose signability is being questioned makes it infinitely more difficult. Even as the draft approaches - it’s only three days away! - it’s being described as being a “long ways away.” Seems ridiculous, right? Not really. There are still a number of high school pitchers who have unknown price tags. We heard last week that the Twins weren’t going to be able to get Manning done with their draft slot at 15. It’s entirely possible that we could be adding more prep pitchers into that category as the week progresses. Why is that happening? Because the teams at the top of the draft - the Phillies, Braves and Reds - have so much money that they can spread it out among their first few picks, essentially taking players off the board before they’re selected. So even if the Twins have settled on their Top 15, there’s a strong chance that none of those players are actually “available” when the Twins come to the podium. Make sense? What you’re going to see below is not a guess at how the Twins have their board stacked, but instead how I would stack my own board… with the caveat that whichever player is drafted will sign for slot at pick 15. I know that’s an impossibility, but without knowing every player that has a high price tag, this is the best way to fairly assess the talent. 1) A.J. Puk, LHP, Florida. I’m not totally sold on Puk - especially after his last start - but you could do worse than taking a left-handed pitcher who throws mid-90s. The combination of ceiling and floor makes Puk the relatively easy choice to take first overall. 2) Jason Groome, LHP, New Jersey HS. I debated Groome vs Pint as top prep pitcher, but Groome’s curveball and the fact he’s young for his class gives him a ceiling of an ace-starter and there are never enough of them. 3) Kyle Lewis, OF, Mercer. Sure, he hasn’t played against the best competition and that magnifies some of the questions about his bat, but his no one can match his ceiling as a hitter and he appears athletic enough to stay in center field. 4) Riley Pint, RHP, Kansas HS. It’s hard to look at a prep pitcher who throws 100+ and not assume he’s going to need Tommy John surgery sometime soon. For me, it’s hard to look at Pint and not think he’s going to be Max Scherzer in a handful of years. If Pint was a little more consistent with his breaking stuff, I’d rank him above Groome. 5) Corey Ray, OF, Louisville. Ray doesn’t have Lewis’s loud power tool. In fact, he lacks any significant carrying tool (unless you want to count his speed). What Ray offers, though, is enough with the bat and glove to project him with an MLB floor, which isn’t easy to do. 6) Nick Senzel, 3B, Tennessee. Senzel’s calling card is his hit tool and there is a lack of that quality in this draft. Good enough to stick on the left side of the infield, Senzel is another high-floor, top-10 pick. 7) Mickey Moniak, OF, California HS. Moniak has the chops to stay in center field and has the hit tool to project as an everyday player, though he’ll probably not add much power as he develops. 8) Braxton Garrett, LHP, Alabama HS. Garrett is the safest of all the prep arms, equipped with a MLB-ready curveball already. The Twins would love him at 15, if he’s available. 9) Delvin Perez, SS, Puerto Rico HS. Young but unfairly compared to Carlos Correa, Perez may have the highest ceiling in the whole class. Will he hit though? 10) Justin Dunn, RHP, Boston College. People are going to do the “another reliever” thing with Dunn if the Twins pick him, but his electric arm is quickly becoming a favorite of mine. For being a relatively fresh arm (that can run it up to 99 mph), he offers a high floor to go with an extremely high ceiling. 11) Ian Anderson, RHP, New York HS. I tried not to dock Anderson for his signability questions and when lined up with Dunn, I have them ranked very closely. Dunn, though smaller, gave me less durability concerns than Anderson, which is why I rank Anderson one spot lower. 12) Alex Kirilloff, OF, Pennsylvania HS. Kirilloff projects to be a good hitter with potential plus power and a good enough arm to play right field. Though I’d always err on the side of pitching, Kirilloff is one hitter who may be on the board at 15 that I’m sold on. 13) Dakota Hudson, P, Mississippi State. I had come around on Hudson before he struggled in his last start. He battles with command, but I’ve been told he may have the best “stuff” in the draft. My concern is the Twins would try to clean up the delivery in hopes that it will improve command, but instead it will cause his “stuff” to play down. 14) Blake Rutherford, OF, California HS. Rutherford is a year older than most other prep players and appears to be physically mature, so there isn’t as much upside as you’d typically get with a high schooler. There’s still a lot of things to like in his bat - I’m just not as sold as some others. 15) Matt Manning, RHP, California HS. I always feel like there’s more to unlock in multi-sport starts and Manning, who is committed to play both baseball and hoops at Loyola Marymount, has plenty of raw ability already, hitting 98 mph with his fastball. I believe Manning has a deal with the Padres. 16) Cal Quantrill, RHP, Stanford. Quantrill missed the season after undergoing Tommy John surgery, but was a legitimate Top 5 candidate before the injury. He has the upside on a #1 starter and likely won’t make his professional debut until Spring Training 2017, nearly 23 months following his procedure. 17) Zack Collins, C, Miami. Collins has the bat to profile as a big-leaguer, but there are questions about his defensive home. He’ll need time to develop behind the plate, but teams might want to push his bat through their system quicker, shifting him to a corner, likely first base. 18) Zack Burdi, RHP, Louisville. Guys who can throw triple-digits and profile with a clean enough delivery have to be considered first-round picks. While Burdi’s ultimate home is probably in the bullpen, he’s an intriguing option for teams in the middle of the first round. 19) Joey Wentz, LHP, Kansas HS. It’s hard not to factor signability into ranking Wentz, who is committed to Virginia. He’s backed off the mid-90s that he was throwing early in his season, but still offers the upside of a front-end starter. 20) Forrest Whitley, RHP, Texas HS. The big-bodied Texan beat out a number of college pitchers for the last spot on this list. There are conditioning questions, but he’s got present ability that projects to play up as he continues to work his body into shape. Just missed: Cody Sedlock, RHP, Illinois and T.J. Zeuch, RHP, Pittsburgh Other draft-related articles: Local Profiles Zack Burdi Zack Collins Prep Arms 10-round mock What does your board look like?
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More than 10 can get it based on teams cutting below-slot deals with their picks and having a ton of money left to promise others (typically high schoolers) to drop to their second pick.
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Specifically, can't tell. But its someone involved in all the draft meetings and will be in the draft room.
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I just asked is Thaiss, who Sickles mocked to Twins, is crazy. And the response I got was "probably but it's still early" which I translate to "he's not Top 15 on our board, but we don't know how many high schoolers we won't be able to sign yet."
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The nature of the beast is that not a whole lot of prep players get drafted after round 5. It happens, but it's atypical. Not exactly a reach on my part.
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First day of draft meetings today. Text I just got: We don't have anyone locked in at all. I wouldn't expect a name even if the Twins were locked in, but this isn't the response I'd get.
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Or it could be that he doesn't want to give up what his plan is. How often is TR open and honest about things like this? Not very often.
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Putting together your own mock draft is a fun exercise and is always interesting to look back at later to see how you did. Putting together a 10-round mock draft for one team when the 29 other teams have their own ideas can be an exercise in futility. This is my third annual attempt at projecting the Twins top 10 rounds and is quickly becoming my favorite pre-draft thing to do each year.In 2014, I hit on Nick Gordon in the first round (most would have) and landed 9th-round pick Max Murphy in the exact spot he was drafted. Because of that, I will overvalue/overrate Murphy for the rest of his career. Hitting on two of the ten picks was exactly two more correct than I expected to hit on, and I expected some regression the following year. Projecting Dillon Tate first in 2015 was incorrect. And I thought my chances of hitting on anyone was rapidly approaching 0%. But my next two projected picks - Kyle Cody and Trey Cabbage - both heard their names called by the Twins and I had my two picks correct for the second straight year. This year, with two comp picks and no forfeited picks, I have 12 picks to try to extend my streak. To give this as “realistic” feel as possible, I found every player’s composite ranking (the average of Perfect Game, Baseball America and MLB) and couldn’t take them unless they fell after or within 10% of the pick (with the exception of the first pick). For example, to be “eligible” for me to pick at 74, the composite ranking had to be lower than 66.6. To be drafted at 93, he had to be ranked 83.7 or lower. For the last four picks, I couldn’t choose a player who was ranked in the Top 200 on each of the three lists. Round 1 (Pick 15 - $2,817,100): OF Alex Kirilloff, Pennsylvania HS. The talk all along has been on the team’s focus on “power arms”. But I don’t think there is going to be a great option available at #15. Kirilloff is one of the few bats that really seems to intrigue the Twins in the first round and though he’s been linked to many of the teams around the Twins, has a decent chance to be available. Round 2 (Pick 55 - $1,141,600): RHP Daulton Jefferies, Cal. The undersized righty missed a significant amount of time this season with a shoulder injury that was originally reported as a calf strain. He’s returned recently to the mound and pitched well. Jefferies has a three-pitch mix currently: a low-to-mid-90s fastball, an above-average changeup and a slider that’s developing. Had Jefferies been healthy, he would have gone much sooner. (Composite average: 50.7) Comp Round B (Pick 73 - $878,500): C Will Smith, Louisville. After a late-season surge, there’s a chance that this all-around catcher isn’t available in the 70s. The helium that Smith has is impressive, considering he missed Perfect Game’s Top 500, checks in at 219 for Baseball America and tops out at 110 for MLB Pipeline. Smith is a name to remember and is almost a certainty to come off the board on Day One. (Composite average: N/A) Comp Round B (Pick 74 - $865,200): SS Luis Curbelo, Florida HS. A Miami commit, Curbel, who worked out for the Twins a few weeks ago, will start his professional career at shortstop, but projects long-term as a third baseman with power and the ability to be an above-average defender. (Composite average: 93.6) Round 3 (Pick 93 - $645,600): SS Stephen Alemais, Tulane. Alemais was one of my personal favorites coming out of high school three years ago. He went undrafted and has played really well at Tulane. He has the defensive chops to stick at shortstop, though there are concerns about his bat. Alemais was the subject of an ESPN article about the Twins scouting, which probably makes the likelihood of Alemais getting drafted by the Twins pretty slim. (Composite average: 105) Round 4 (Pick 123 - $477,900): LHP Keegan Akin, Western Michigan. Akin had success in the Cape Cod League and has a three-pitch mix: a mid-90s fastball and an average slider and changeup. Akin has been moving up boards, so it wouldn’t be entirely shocking to see him go off the board earlier than the fourth round. (Composite average: 114) Round 5 (Pick 153 - $357,800): 3B/C Ulysses Cantu, Texas HS. Cantu has dabbled with catching, but has played more third base. His calling card, however, is a pure hitting ability, something the organization always seems to be lacking. (Composite average: 149) Round 6 (Pick 183 - $267,800): RHP Stephen Nogosek, Oregon. The Twins have had some recent success with both Oregon closers and converting relievers to starters. Nogosek checks both of those boxes. Armed with a fastball in the mid-90s, a “frisbee” slider and a changeup that will probably be scrapped if he stays in the bullpen, Nogosek would be an intriguing addition to the organization. (Composite average: 169.3) Round 7 (Pick 213 - $200,900): OF Dom Thompson-Williams, South Carolina. Recently on the Talking Twins Podcast, I suggested that the Twins don’t have a positional need as much as they have a need for pure athletes. Thompson-Williams is a great athlete, though he still needs to refine his baseball skills. (PG: 169; BA: 237; MLB: NR) Round 8 (Pick 243 - $178,200): RHP A.J. Bogucki, North Carolina. Bogucki was drafted by the Twins in the 31st round in 2013 out of a Pennsylvania HS, but decided to pitch collegiately and has been a dependable bullpen arm for the Tar Heels. Bogucki’s low-to-mid-90s fastball and curveball/slider combination profile best in the bullpen, but you never know. (PG: 217; BA: 262; MLB: NR) Round 9 (Pick 273 -$166,300): LHP Scott Moss, Florida. Moss underwent Tommy John surgery after redshirting his freshman year, so he hasn’t had many opportunities to showcase his ability (and he has two more opportunities to go through the draft process if he chooses). But what Moss has been able to show is a three-pitch mix (fastball, curveball, changeup) and a raw ability that scouts can dream on. Moss did have success pitching in the Northwoods League, but has really battled with command. (PG: 192; BA: NR; MLB: 191) Round 10 (Pick 303 - $156,600): RHP Curtis Taylor, U. of British Columbia. Though it’s not necessarily going to happen in the top ten rounds (nor does it have to happen at all), the Twins now have a presence in Canada with scout Walt Burrows, who knows baseball in Canada better than anyone. Could his addition to the organization pay off with the drafting of a pitcher like Taylor, another power pitcher with a fastball/slider combo?(PG: 284; BA: 115; MLB: NR) There it is. The Twins first 12 picks (over 10 rounds). Six pitchers of the college variety, a couple of potential shortstops and a couple of potential catchers along with a potential corner-OF All-Star bat. What do you think? Other draft-related articles: Local Profiles Zack Burdi Zack Collins Prep Arms Click here to view the article
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In 2014, I hit on Nick Gordon in the first round (most would have) and landed 9th-round pick Max Murphy in the exact spot he was drafted. Because of that, I will overvalue/overrate Murphy for the rest of his career. Hitting on two of the ten picks was exactly two more correct than I expected to hit on, and I expected some regression the following year. Projecting Dillon Tate first in 2015 was incorrect. And I thought my chances of hitting on anyone was rapidly approaching 0%. But my next two projected picks - Kyle Cody and Trey Cabbage - both heard their names called by the Twins and I had my two picks correct for the second straight year. This year, with two comp picks and no forfeited picks, I have 12 picks to try to extend my streak. To give this as “realistic” feel as possible, I found every player’s composite ranking (the average of Perfect Game, Baseball America and MLB) and couldn’t take them unless they fell after or within 10% of the pick (with the exception of the first pick). For example, to be “eligible” for me to pick at 74, the composite ranking had to be lower than 66.6. To be drafted at 93, he had to be ranked 83.7 or lower. For the last four picks, I couldn’t choose a player who was ranked in the Top 200 on each of the three lists. Round 1 (Pick 15 - $2,817,100): OF Alex Kirilloff, Pennsylvania HS. The talk all along has been on the team’s focus on “power arms”. But I don’t think there is going to be a great option available at #15. Kirilloff is one of the few bats that really seems to intrigue the Twins in the first round and though he’s been linked to many of the teams around the Twins, has a decent chance to be available. Round 2 (Pick 55 - $1,141,600): RHP Daulton Jefferies, Cal. The undersized righty missed a significant amount of time this season with a shoulder injury that was originally reported as a calf strain. He’s returned recently to the mound and pitched well. Jefferies has a three-pitch mix currently: a low-to-mid-90s fastball, an above-average changeup and a slider that’s developing. Had Jefferies been healthy, he would have gone much sooner. (Composite average: 50.7) Comp Round B (Pick 73 - $878,500): C Will Smith, Louisville. After a late-season surge, there’s a chance that this all-around catcher isn’t available in the 70s. The helium that Smith has is impressive, considering he missed Perfect Game’s Top 500, checks in at 219 for Baseball America and tops out at 110 for MLB Pipeline. Smith is a name to remember and is almost a certainty to come off the board on Day One. (Composite average: N/A) Comp Round B (Pick 74 - $865,200): SS Luis Curbelo, Florida HS. A Miami commit, Curbel, who worked out for the Twins a few weeks ago, will start his professional career at shortstop, but projects long-term as a third baseman with power and the ability to be an above-average defender. (Composite average: 93.6) Round 3 (Pick 93 - $645,600): SS Stephen Alemais, Tulane. Alemais was one of my personal favorites coming out of high school three years ago. He went undrafted and has played really well at Tulane. He has the defensive chops to stick at shortstop, though there are concerns about his bat. Alemais was the subject of an ESPN article about the Twins scouting, which probably makes the likelihood of Alemais getting drafted by the Twins pretty slim. (Composite average: 105) Round 4 (Pick 123 - $477,900): LHP Keegan Akin, Western Michigan. Akin had success in the Cape Cod League and has a three-pitch mix: a mid-90s fastball and an average slider and changeup. Akin has been moving up boards, so it wouldn’t be entirely shocking to see him go off the board earlier than the fourth round. (Composite average: 114) Round 5 (Pick 153 - $357,800): 3B/C Ulysses Cantu, Texas HS. Cantu has dabbled with catching, but has played more third base. His calling card, however, is a pure hitting ability, something the organization always seems to be lacking. (Composite average: 149) Round 6 (Pick 183 - $267,800): RHP Stephen Nogosek, Oregon. The Twins have had some recent success with both Oregon closers and converting relievers to starters. Nogosek checks both of those boxes. Armed with a fastball in the mid-90s, a “frisbee” slider and a changeup that will probably be scrapped if he stays in the bullpen, Nogosek would be an intriguing addition to the organization. (Composite average: 169.3) Round 7 (Pick 213 - $200,900): OF Dom Thompson-Williams, South Carolina. Recently on the Talking Twins Podcast, I suggested that the Twins don’t have a positional need as much as they have a need for pure athletes. Thompson-Williams is a great athlete, though he still needs to refine his baseball skills. (PG: 169; BA: 237; MLB: NR) Round 8 (Pick 243 - $178,200): RHP A.J. Bogucki, North Carolina. Bogucki was drafted by the Twins in the 31st round in 2013 out of a Pennsylvania HS, but decided to pitch collegiately and has been a dependable bullpen arm for the Tar Heels. Bogucki’s low-to-mid-90s fastball and curveball/slider combination profile best in the bullpen, but you never know. (PG: 217; BA: 262; MLB: NR) Round 9 (Pick 273 -$166,300): LHP Scott Moss, Florida. Moss underwent Tommy John surgery after redshirting his freshman year, so he hasn’t had many opportunities to showcase his ability (and he has two more opportunities to go through the draft process if he chooses). But what Moss has been able to show is a three-pitch mix (fastball, curveball, changeup) and a raw ability that scouts can dream on. Moss did have success pitching in the Northwoods League, but has really battled with command. (PG: 192; BA: NR; MLB: 191) Round 10 (Pick 303 - $156,600): RHP Curtis Taylor, U. of British Columbia. Though it’s not necessarily going to happen in the top ten rounds (nor does it have to happen at all), the Twins now have a presence in Canada with scout Walt Burrows, who knows baseball in Canada better than anyone. Could his addition to the organization pay off with the drafting of a pitcher like Taylor, another power pitcher with a fastball/slider combo?(PG: 284; BA: 115; MLB: NR) There it is. The Twins first 12 picks (over 10 rounds). Six pitchers of the college variety, a couple of potential shortstops and a couple of potential catchers along with a potential corner-OF All-Star bat. What do you think? Other draft-related articles: Local Profiles Zack Burdi Zack Collins Prep Arms
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Article: Twins Daily Draft Preview: Prep Arms
Jeremy Nygaard replied to Jeremy Nygaard's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Though I don't disagree the organization could probably come out further ahead if they do this, I don't think anyone feels secure enough in their job to punt on this year's pick. -
All spring the Twins have been rumored to be interested in any and all high school pitchers, with the focus, essentially, being on “power arms.” The unique thing about this group is they’re also the players most-heavily connected to rumors of high price tags, which may allow them to drop to the teams with the largest draft pools.WHO ARE THEY? The headliners of the group, Jason Groome (LHP, New Jersey HS) and Riley Pint (RHP, Kansas HS) are both expected to be long gone by the time the Twins come to the podium. (Though there has been some recent chatter of Groome sliding.) The second tier of prep pitchers has a few more names in it: Ian Anderson (RHP, New York HS), Braxton Garrett (LHP, Alabama HS), Matt Manning (RHP, California HS), Kyle Muller (RHP, Texas HS), Joey Wentz (LHP, Kansas HS), and Forrest Whitley (RHP, Texas HS) WHY THE TWINS WILL DRAFT ONE OF THEM Each of these young hurlers has something you could absolutely fall in love with. Ian Anderson is 6’ 4”, 175 pounds and has hit as high as 97 on the radar gun. He also throws an advanced changeup and curveball for where you’d project a cold-weather prep to be at his age. To top it off, Anderson has a body that offers projection. Braxton Garrett, according to a veteran scout, is “one of - if not the best - left-handed high school pitcher I’ve ever seen.” Garrett doesn’t throw particularly hard - 91-92 mph - but offers a curveball that is almost unanimously viewed as the best in the prep class. His changeup is a potential plus pitch as well. Matt Manning is a big body (6’ 6”, 200 lb) that has a huge fastball. It’s been clocked in the upper-90s, though he sits in the mid-90s. His secondary pitches have taken a back seat to his dominant fastball, but both his curveball and changeup offer projection. Kyle Muller can lay claim to the fact that he recorded 36 consecutive outs on strikeouts at one point this spring. He’s not overpowering - throwing in the low-90s - but he’s very deceptive and left-handed hitters will struggle with his fastball. His secondary pitches don’t project as above-average. Joey Wentz is a big lefty (6’ 5”) who throws hard (up to 96 mph) and has a potentially plus curveball. He’s got great control and a low-effort, easily-repeatable delivery. Forrest Whitley is the guy on this list I could see most likely to be both a) available and willing to sign at #15. Whitley is all of 6’ 7” and depending on the food intake of the day, tips the scale at around 240 pounds. The big Texan has a full mix of pitches, though. A fastball that has been clocked as high as 97 mph, a slider that projects as plus and a curveball and changeup that still need work, but he’s shown a feel for. WHY THE TWINS WON'T DRAFT ANY OF THEM In addition to the rumored high asking prices, none of these pitchers come without warts. Anderson had a rough spring, dealing with an oblique injury, pneumonia and wet weather that made it hard for him to get on the mound. He’s a Vanderbilt commit, one of the hardest schools to sign kids away from. Another Vanderbilt commit, Garrett is also a Scott Boras client which means, as one scout says, “we won’t know what he’ll cost until the draft.” The question about Manning has also been his price tag. Recently I was informed that the Twins slot “wasn’t going to get it done.” My personal belief is that the Padres are working to get both Manning and Stanford pitcher Cal Quantrill as a package in some combination at #8, #23 and #24. Manning also plans to play both baseball and basketball at Loyola Marymount. Muller lacks the ceiling of the other pitchers on this list, though he’d probably be the most signable. Twins fans would likely be disappointed with a first-round pitcher who Baseball America suggests is a “future No. 3 or No. 4 starter.” Wentz is committed to Virginia and it’s going to take big money to sign him away from that commitment. Though he did lose a lot of weight this spring, Whitley is going to battle conditioning issues (and that didn’t work well for the Twins and Hudson Boyd). He also broke a finger right before the season started and missed a few weeks. There’s also talk of an email that was sent from Whitley’s dad that seemed to blast professional baseball, though I haven’t been able to substantiate that report. --- In the most recent mock drafts, Baseball America projects the Indians taking Anderson the pick before the Twins at #14. Keith Law and MLB Pipeline have Anderson going to the Yankees at #18. Law and MLB Pipeline both project the Marlins taking Garrett at #7, while the Baseball America crew has him dropping all the way to the Nationals at #29. Law has Manning going to the Padres at #8. MLB Pipeline connects him to the Twins at #15, but warns of the high price tag. Baseball America has Manning falling to the Cardinals, who have three picks in the top 34, at #23. Law projects the Twins take Muller at #15, while Baseball America (#32 to Dodgers) and MLB Pipeline (not in top 34) have him going later. Wentz does not appear on any of the three mock drafts. MLB Pipeline connects the Padres to Whitley at #8 (my note: likely under slot), while Law makes the same connection, only at #25 (my note: probably over slot). Baseball America goes in between, slotting Whitley in at #21 to the Blue Jays. If every one of these pitchers was available at #15 and willing to sign for slot, I’d order them in this way (with a significant gap between the top half and bottom half): Braxton Garrett Ian Anderson Matt Manning Joey Wentz Garrett Whitley Kyle Muller Other draft-related articles: Local Profiles Zack Burdi Zack Collins Click here to view the article
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WHO ARE THEY? The headliners of the group, Jason Groome (LHP, New Jersey HS) and Riley Pint (RHP, Kansas HS) are both expected to be long gone by the time the Twins come to the podium. (Though there has been some recent chatter of Groome sliding.) The second tier of prep pitchers has a few more names in it: Ian Anderson (RHP, New York HS), Braxton Garrett (LHP, Alabama HS), Matt Manning (RHP, California HS), Kyle Muller (RHP, Texas HS), Joey Wentz (LHP, Kansas HS), and Forrest Whitley (RHP, Texas HS) WHY THE TWINS WILL DRAFT ONE OF THEM Each of these young hurlers has something you could absolutely fall in love with. Ian Anderson is 6’ 4”, 175 pounds and has hit as high as 97 on the radar gun. He also throws an advanced changeup and curveball for where you’d project a cold-weather prep to be at his age. To top it off, Anderson has a body that offers projection. Braxton Garrett, according to a veteran scout, is “one of - if not the best - left-handed high school pitcher I’ve ever seen.” Garrett doesn’t throw particularly hard - 91-92 mph - but offers a curveball that is almost unanimously viewed as the best in the prep class. His changeup is a potential plus pitch as well. Matt Manning is a big body (6’ 6”, 200 lb) that has a huge fastball. It’s been clocked in the upper-90s, though he sits in the mid-90s. His secondary pitches have taken a back seat to his dominant fastball, but both his curveball and changeup offer projection. Kyle Muller can lay claim to the fact that he recorded 36 consecutive outs on strikeouts at one point this spring. He’s not overpowering - throwing in the low-90s - but he’s very deceptive and left-handed hitters will struggle with his fastball. His secondary pitches don’t project as above-average. Joey Wentz is a big lefty (6’ 5”) who throws hard (up to 96 mph) and has a potentially plus curveball. He’s got great control and a low-effort, easily-repeatable delivery. Forrest Whitley is the guy on this list I could see most likely to be both a) available and willing to sign at #15. Whitley is all of 6’ 7” and depending on the food intake of the day, tips the scale at around 240 pounds. The big Texan has a full mix of pitches, though. A fastball that has been clocked as high as 97 mph, a slider that projects as plus and a curveball and changeup that still need work, but he’s shown a feel for. WHY THE TWINS WON'T DRAFT ANY OF THEM In addition to the rumored high asking prices, none of these pitchers come without warts. Anderson had a rough spring, dealing with an oblique injury, pneumonia and wet weather that made it hard for him to get on the mound. He’s a Vanderbilt commit, one of the hardest schools to sign kids away from. Another Vanderbilt commit, Garrett is also a Scott Boras client which means, as one scout says, “we won’t know what he’ll cost until the draft.” The question about Manning has also been his price tag. Recently I was informed that the Twins slot “wasn’t going to get it done.” My personal belief is that the Padres are working to get both Manning and Stanford pitcher Cal Quantrill as a package in some combination at #8, #23 and #24. Manning also plans to play both baseball and basketball at Loyola Marymount. Muller lacks the ceiling of the other pitchers on this list, though he’d probably be the most signable. Twins fans would likely be disappointed with a first-round pitcher who Baseball America suggests is a “future No. 3 or No. 4 starter.” Wentz is committed to Virginia and it’s going to take big money to sign him away from that commitment. Though he did lose a lot of weight this spring, Whitley is going to battle conditioning issues (and that didn’t work well for the Twins and Hudson Boyd). He also broke a finger right before the season started and missed a few weeks. There’s also talk of an email that was sent from Whitley’s dad that seemed to blast professional baseball, though I haven’t been able to substantiate that report. --- In the most recent mock drafts, Baseball America projects the Indians taking Anderson the pick before the Twins at #14. Keith Law and MLB Pipeline have Anderson going to the Yankees at #18. Law and MLB Pipeline both project the Marlins taking Garrett at #7, while the Baseball America crew has him dropping all the way to the Nationals at #29. Law has Manning going to the Padres at #8. MLB Pipeline connects him to the Twins at #15, but warns of the high price tag. Baseball America has Manning falling to the Cardinals, who have three picks in the top 34, at #23. Law projects the Twins take Muller at #15, while Baseball America (#32 to Dodgers) and MLB Pipeline (not in top 34) have him going later. Wentz does not appear on any of the three mock drafts. MLB Pipeline connects the Padres to Whitley at #8 (my note: likely under slot), while Law makes the same connection, only at #25 (my note: probably over slot). Baseball America goes in between, slotting Whitley in at #21 to the Blue Jays. If every one of these pitchers was available at #15 and willing to sign for slot, I’d order them in this way (with a significant gap between the top half and bottom half): Braxton Garrett Ian Anderson Matt Manning Joey Wentz Garrett Whitley Kyle Muller Other draft-related articles: Local Profiles Zack Burdi Zack Collins
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It's probably not a fair comparison, but I was considering the first post that asked how bad the D could be if you're posting an 800 OPS. As I recall, Perkins complained about his receiving skills more than his arm. Even if he's Kyle Schwarber, I still don't think the Twins would stick him behind the plate. So that leads to another post - play him at a corner spot... sure, but athletically he's almost certainly limited to first base. There are very few first basemen I would ever draft in the top 15.
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Fair enough. But the Twins had a bat-first (and maybe bat-only) catcher before that put up a 162-game average over 2 big league seasons of 23 HRs, 50 XBH and a triple-slash of .257/.339/.445 (.784). His name was Josmil Pinto and pitchers hated throwing to him. I think Collins should be at least comparable with the bat and hopefully better with the glove, but the Twins couldn't find a spot for him.
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It’s been fifteen years since the Twins called a catcher’s name in the first round of the Major League Baseball draft. Though it doesn’t seem likely that the streak will come to an end next week, the first catcher to be selected will probably be Zack Collins from the University of Miami.WHO IS HE? Zack Collins is an offensive-minded catcher. So far in 2016, Collins has hit .364/.540/.630 (1.170). He and the rest of the Hurricanes will begin their postseason hosting on Friday evening in the Coral Gables Region. It’s not a one-year thing either. Collins has hit double-digit home runs in each of his three seasons. He’s increased his batting average, on-base percentage and slugging in each season, though his lowest OPS (as a freshman) was still a robust .983. Impressively, Collins has walked more times (165) than he’s struck out (155) as a collegiate. One mark against Collins - and it’s a tiny one - is that in his limited exposure to wood-bat leagues - the Cape Cod League in 2015 - he struggled in 13 at-bats. It’s a tiny sample, but the Twins have always kept a close eye on how players perform in that league. WHY THE TWINS WILL DRAFT HIM The bat is powerful and elite. Collins has the 39th-highest slugging percentage in the nation. Not many of the 38 above him are from power conferences. Not many above him put the catching gear on. We’ve seen teams - such as the Cubs - take impactful bats in the draft recently even though those bats came with defensive question marks. Kyle Schwarber, a “catcher” in college, played less than 150 minor league games before getting the call to the Bigs. Why did he get that call? Because he had posted an OPS over 1.000 in four of the five levels he made stops at. Who does Collins get compared to the most? Schwarber, of course. Defensive questions or not, Schwarber posted a 1.2 WAR in less than 70 games in 2015. Any lineup could use a bat like Collins. A catcher who could add that much offensive potential to a lineup would be fantastic... WHY THE TWINS WON'T DRAFT HIM ...but he’s not likely to stick at catcher. Collins has shown a significant amount of improvement behind the plate. But most scouts don’t think he’ll ever be more than an average defender, if he’s even that good. One suggested that he could maybe be a “(Steven) Vogt-type if he hits enough.” Athletically, Collins is average at best. Though he has plenty of arm strength, his receiving needs a lot of work. For an organization that doesn’t have a clear long-term answer behind the plate, it would be difficult to make a $2.8m bet that he’ll stick and provide the team with a solution for the future. If you miss, you’re stuck with a(nother) first baseman. Download attachment: Collins_RL24312.jpg Image courtesy of Richard Lewis / Miami Athletics Collins has been all over in recent mock drafts, going as high as #10 overall in Baseball America’s most recent mock and as low as #19 in Keith Law’s last projection. I had him going to the Mariners at #11 in my second mock draft. The last communication I got about Collins was that he was an “offensive force” but the Twins appeared to be “targeting a different batch of players.” But if that “batch” prices themselves out of the Twins range and Collins is still available, who knows...? Other draft-related articles: Local Profiles Zack Burdi Click here to view the article
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WHO IS HE? Zack Collins is an offensive-minded catcher. So far in 2016, Collins has hit .364/.540/.630 (1.170). He and the rest of the Hurricanes will begin their postseason hosting on Friday evening in the Coral Gables Region. It’s not a one-year thing either. Collins has hit double-digit home runs in each of his three seasons. He’s increased his batting average, on-base percentage and slugging in each season, though his lowest OPS (as a freshman) was still a robust .983. Impressively, Collins has walked more times (165) than he’s struck out (155) as a collegiate. One mark against Collins - and it’s a tiny one - is that in his limited exposure to wood-bat leagues - the Cape Cod League in 2015 - he struggled in 13 at-bats. It’s a tiny sample, but the Twins have always kept a close eye on how players perform in that league. WHY THE TWINS WILL DRAFT HIM The bat is powerful and elite. Collins has the 39th-highest slugging percentage in the nation. Not many of the 38 above him are from power conferences. Not many above him put the catching gear on. We’ve seen teams - such as the Cubs - take impactful bats in the draft recently even though those bats came with defensive question marks. Kyle Schwarber, a “catcher” in college, played less than 150 minor league games before getting the call to the Bigs. Why did he get that call? Because he had posted an OPS over 1.000 in four of the five levels he made stops at. Who does Collins get compared to the most? Schwarber, of course. Defensive questions or not, Schwarber posted a 1.2 WAR in less than 70 games in 2015. Any lineup could use a bat like Collins. A catcher who could add that much offensive potential to a lineup would be fantastic... WHY THE TWINS WON'T DRAFT HIM ...but he’s not likely to stick at catcher. Collins has shown a significant amount of improvement behind the plate. But most scouts don’t think he’ll ever be more than an average defender, if he’s even that good. One suggested that he could maybe be a “(Steven) Vogt-type if he hits enough.” Athletically, Collins is average at best. Though he has plenty of arm strength, his receiving needs a lot of work. For an organization that doesn’t have a clear long-term answer behind the plate, it would be difficult to make a $2.8m bet that he’ll stick and provide the team with a solution for the future. If you miss, you’re stuck with a(nother) first baseman. Image courtesy of Richard Lewis / Miami Athletics Collins has been all over in recent mock drafts, going as high as #10 overall in Baseball America’s most recent mock and as low as #19 in Keith Law’s last projection. I had him going to the Mariners at #11 in my second mock draft. The last communication I got about Collins was that he was an “offensive force” but the Twins appeared to be “targeting a different batch of players.” But if that “batch” prices themselves out of the Twins range and Collins is still available, who knows...? Other draft-related articles: Local Profiles Zack Burdi
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His spot lines up with Omar Bencomo, so I would assume him. The move wasn't made official til after the Lookouts had sent out their game notes for the day.
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When he was drafted, the comp that Twins had on Wade was David DeJesus. Had he not been injured for much of the year - and playing a significant amount of time unnecessarily at first base - Wade would have went much higher in the draft.
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