South Dakota Tom

"If you have a guy that swings at everything you don't want to tell him to take" I understand people disagree with this statement, but I think the answer is more in the phrasing than the philosophy. Aggressive swingers don't respond well to "take pitches" because that takes away their aggressiveness. What Jake is saying is that if they go up to bat, not thinking "take" but thinking "is this a pitch I can drive hard somewhere" it accomplishes the same thing without substantially changing the hitter's mentality. I like it.

We've had some crazy good months of May, often spurred by young players. Plus, it is clear to me that both Berrios and Meyer will put fans in the seats. Raise your hand if you had a rotation of Hughes, Nolasco, Duffey, Berrios and Meyer on May 1. I think the point has been made, too, about Tommy Milone's splits first and second and third time through the order. We need a long reliever. No one doubts that Meyer's stuff is far superior. Other than the "let's have one left-hander in the rotation" bias, this move makes total sense. Excellent point, too, about contracts and long-term thinking. On a completely unrelated point, rambling through the mlb stats page, it makes one feel better if you just look at the 7-day stats rather than the season-long stats. Trending in the right direction for many players. Team needs at least a few guys with BAs between .250-.290 (and I don't mean the guys hitting over .300 dropping....)

The worst-case-scenario for the Twins is to have a combination of underperformance from several rookies and sophomores, and reasonable to good performances from Ryan Sweeney, Carlos Quentin, and Ricky Nolasco....and then making long-term or irrevocable roster decisions based on that. It would keep us on the path of least-development, and put in place a huge piece of the team that is, as they say, not part of the future. Now, if Ricky pitches well enough to be traded, that's a different kettle.

I've been wrong year over year on many players, but this is clearly a huge year for Polanco. If the team swims in mediocrity, I can see a scenario where BD is traded and JP becomes the regular at 2nd. This makes sense on two fronts: 1) Return for Dozier is relatively high as a power-hitting middle infielder cost-controlled for a few more seasons (as noted, through age 32) 2) Jorge Polanco represents a skill set different from the lion's share of the present lineup. We have multiple home-run, low-average guys (Sano, Park, Plouffe, Arcia, ABW, Vargas, even Escobar and Rosario are double-digit homer candidates). We have OBP without substantial power (Mauer, Kepler); we have guys who won't do either (catcher). We have exactly one potential OBP/speed threat (Buxton). Teams need speed in the lineup. I may be pushing things a bit, but I like Polanco in the 2-hole, behind Buxton and ahead of the mashers. This team lacks serious table-setters with speed. If Dozier can fetch a nice return, I don't see the trade-off between Dozier's future and Polanco's future being so great as to cast JP aside for nothing because the only spot he fits is already filled.

The more consideration I give to the 2016 lineup, the more convinced I am that it is falling on the shoulders (fairly or unfairly) of Byron Buxton. Let's look at the ways he impacts the lineup. 1. Lineup with Buxton leading off: Buxton, Dozier, Mauer, Sano, Plouffe, Park, Rosario, Murphy/Suzuki, Escobar. Without Buxton leading off: Dozier, Mauer, Sano, Park, Plouffe, Rosario, Murphy/Suzuki, Escobar, Buxton/Santana. Not only does the first lineup place players in their optimum position, it showcases a very strong lineup 1-9. We have power through the middle with Sano, Plouffe, Park in the 4-6 holes, We have a base-stealing, 1st-to-3rd demon at the top of the lineup, and what I would consider among the league leaders in the 7-9 holes. Without him at the top, almost every player is batting out of position. Too much pressure is placed on Park, Dozier is not a leadoff hitter in the OBP sense, and it feels like every player is one spot away from his ideal place in the order. We have almost no speed at the top of the order. We rely too heavily on 7-9 to produce runs or runners without a consistent RBI presence batting behind them. 2. There has been a lot of recent discussion of OF defense. With Buxton manning CF, you can place Rosario in RF or LF, and Sano in the other corner. At least two of the three are elite defensively, all three have great arms, and Sano's athleticism and arm and bat make the team reasonable with the fly-ball pitching staff they have. Many have pointed out how valuable the athletic outfield was to the pitching staff. I don't think it is wrong to suggest that the defense was worth half of the decreased ERA among starters last year, though statistics could prove me wrong. But if Buxton is sent to AAA, the outfield scenarios become....what's the word I'm searching for?....frightening. Sano, Rosario, Arcia? They cannot score enough runs to make up for the defensive lapses. And those lapses don't just cause runs to occur because of missed fly balls, doubles and triples. Those lapses cause mental anguish in pitchers who try to be too fine and miss their targets because of their fear of solid contact. You cannot pitch in the big leagues worried that any ball that is hit will become a problem. Defense translates into confidence in pitchers. Confidence in pitchers leads to success. The last thing I want to think when I'm a pitcher is the things I cannot do - "can't throw a fastball here to this dead-pull hitter; can't throw anything offspeed to this guy and speed up his bat; can't throw a change because he knows I need to avoid the fastball to avoid solid contact." 3. I'm not a huge believer in projections, but any scenario in which the Twins make the playoffs and win playoff games starts with Byron Buxton being a difference-maker. If he is a.290 hitter with a .365 OBP and .410 SLG, with 30 doubles, 13 triples, 10 HR, and 34 SBs, the progression or regression of every other player on the team (within reason, we can't have regression by everyone else) makes far less difference. We, in all fundamental fairness to our hopes and dreams, NEED this guy to break out. We don't need him to be the ROY, but he would need to be within the top 3. One caveat. I'm breaking one of my cardinal rules here. I rarely watch football, because I hate the hyperbole. They start every broadcast with "If the Lions are going to win today, so-and-so NEEDS to carry the ball 20 times" or "the defense NEEDS to keep the opposition under 50% in third-down conversions." I have watched enough to know that there are many ways to win, and teams win without 20 carries or 50% third-down conversions. There isn't one thing we need, if enough other things happen. But when I walk through the lineup, and through the defense, and through the possibilities and probabilities, it keeps coming back to this one guy. With all the known and unknown quantities on this team, if he's a bust and spends this year in AAA, I don't see a scenario where we are successful. If he's a ROY/MVP player, I don't see a scenario where we aren't a very, very competitive team with the sky as the limit.

That's much better than what I feared you meant....

Lots of hard work and a lot of thought-provoking posts over the holidays, OTB. I'll disagree about having more than 4 pitchers with 10 wins. I think 4 is a good number, but having 5 do that means that no one gets a mid-season injury, or that the replacements occur early enough to carry the load for the rest of the season. I am counting on that amount from Hughes, Santana and Gibson (barring injury), but not certain we will see that many from 2 of Milone, Nolasco, Duffey, Berrios, May, Meyer, et al. It is just going to be hard to find two of those guys who plug in and stay in the rotation to get the 20-25 starts that make 10 wins a reality. There's an irony there, too. If a couple of those names were gone, it would increase the odds of having the remaining pitchers lock into rotation spots. But I'm in the crowd that wants to keep the depth, knowing that a team will need 8 arms to get through the season. Happy New Year! And let's start talking about the start of spring training in terms of weeks (7 1/2 until February 21st) rather than months (less than 2!). Makes it sound closer.

Not trying to hijack the post, but setting a lineup becomes an interesting proposition for this team. To me, the fact that Mauer batted largely in the 3-hole and had 3/4 of his at-bats with the bases empty speaks more to the hitters in front of him than his production. Don't know the statistics, but not sure the #6 batter gets more chances with guys on base than the #3. I'll take that slash line out of my #3 hitter, but would sure like to improve the number of AB's with runners on. Being able to have an on-base producer (or producers) in front of Joe is that important. As good as Dozier was last year, he is not a prototypical leadoff guy and we spent much of the season without a fast-running, walk-inducing, good-average guy in the leadoff spot. Hicks wasn't perfect in that spot either and none of the other outfielders seem destined for that duty. Sure would be nice to plug Byron Buxton into that spot. With this lineup being power-oriented, there is an absolute necessity to have an OBP machine at the top of the order. Being able to project Buxton there makes everything else fall into place. Sure, that's a lot of expectation, but if he can take over CF and bat leadoff, that allows us to place Dozier, Sano, Park, Mauer, Plouffe, Rosario into the 2-7 holes, and leaves two pretty good players in Murphy/Suzuki and Escobar in the 8-9 slots. Joe always strikes us as the guy who is clutch and bears down in those situations (and this was an excellent post in pointing out just how real that sense is). But if Byron is not ready, who bats in the 1, 2 slots? This team doesn't seem to have a lot of guys in the starting 9 who project into those roles.

Three things I believe. 1. We will see a better Ricky Nolasco this season. 2. The Twins will release or put him in the BP him if he isn't good. 3. Mauer is the hub of the wheel for this team, offensively, and I don't mean that he propels them. If he is hitting, he's the 1B, and everything revolves around that (Plouffe, Sano, Park, Arcia, the Hicks trade, Kepler, ABW). If he isn't, he has to move down in the order; he has to move away from 1B, letting Sano play there (or Park with Sano at DH), and opening up the OF for the three best two-way players (probably Buxton, Rosario, and Kepler). It doesn't leave any room for Joe. But I completely agree that you can't just plug him in to that spot in the order and in the defense with the current (and future) alignment of the team.

I don't expect us to get the best buy-low candidate of the offseason (Cervelli). I think we got a fair return for what we gave up. I am in the minority on this position (given the OP) but I think there are a lot of reasons to love this deal. First, we have outfield depth, and it would have been difficult to find a place for Hicks on a long-term basis - not enough power for a corner, and two outfield spots covered with a logjam behind that is intriguing. But to me more important is the sense of being a pro ballplayer in your prime. JR Murphy has got to be absolutely jacked right now. He is going to play at least half the time, knowing that the Twins want to limit Suzuki's AB's, and he is solid defensively. He isn't crowded by a high-dollar veteran ahead of him and a top prospect behind him. Hicks is headed to crazy town with a ton of pressure and has not handled failure well in his history. I think this board is going to love our new catcher (for the next 7-8 years!), and realize shortly into the season that there was no place for Hicks on this team. And then again, i could be completely wrong.

I'm not so sure. Yes they could have signed someone, I agree with that. But who? Yesterday was the first day that this San Diego glut appeared, and everyone seemed very underwhelmed by the FA catchers out there who already signed for cheap. Maybe I should edit and add "or instead of Murphy, they had only signed a middling backup FA to address this glaring need"

Can you imagine how much everyone on this board would be freaking out if we hadn't done anything about catcher as of this date and the end of the winter meetings?

I had the same starting 9 (right now) but like your idea of Benson over Nunez, and adding Arcia to the bench. However, given the question you posed, I say the answer is no. I believe there is one more move in which players are traded for pitching, though it could come from prospects being traded instead of regulars. I also flip your lineup and put Buxton on top (probably not from day one) followed by Mauer, Dozier, Sano, Park, Plouffe, Rosario, Murphy, and Escobar (or Escobar then Murphy). I do like that lineup - starting to feel like the FO enjoys writing it down over and over again as well.....

No, we have an unthreatening staff as well.

Muy buena, es verdad! Good numbers, Madre Dos! Hope your house keeps churning out 20% of our top prospects for a long, long time.

I don't believe this is the "great leap backward" defensively that others do. Yes, catcher may be the only defensive upgrade (though a full year of Escobar's steadiness as SS, Buxton in center and Hicks in RF is an upgrade over the early-season roster from last year). Other positions remain the same. Plouffe has a great arm, and is better-framed to make the move to a corner outfield position. Sano just needs to be in the lineup everyday. Every member of that team can grow into those positions, and while Rosario didn't play a lot of 2B lately, he has played the position extensively in his career and is an acceptable defensive player. Another poster wondered about who the targets might be, and while I'm not as well-versed on minor league talent as several others on this site, I look at players like Kyle Zimmer from KC as a AA (just starting AA) pitcher with potential, and either a Gary Sanchez from the Yankees or Andrew Susac from the Giants or, yes, Jonathan Lucroy (who isn't really young, but is a strong defender and hitter who's cost-controlled through 2017) as a catching upgrade. Don't know how to make all the parts fit, but I'm sticking with my plan...

How do we keep Trevor and Miguel in the lineup together? How do we find the right catcher? How do we shore up the bullpen? Should Torii Hunter have a role? Do we need another starter, or just swap out some that we have? Can we afford an ace? How do we do all this under a scenario that the F.O. might actually consider, from an economic perspective? I think it can all be done, by next spring, with relatively few moves. But two of them are big. We would trade Brian Dozier and Kyle Gibson. We would not resign Cotts, Boyer, Hunter, Pelfrey, Robinson, or Nunez. We would sign two free agent relief pitchers. The idea is that the combination of Gibson/Dozier brings a cost-controlled young defensive catcher with offensive upside and front-line pitching prospect, perhaps a year away from the bigs. The holes get plugged in a different way than I've seen, as well. It's not Polanco to 2nd, but Rosario. The defensive arrangement would be young stud/Suzuki at catcher (keeping Kurt below his vesting option), Mauer, Rosario, Escobar, and Sano around the infield. Outfield would be Plouffe in left, Buxton in center, and Hicks in right. We would move Hunter to a coaching role. Customary DH is a combination of Arcia/ABWIII/Vargas. Bench is Suzuki, ABW, Santana, and Vargas. We have some pop in our pinch hitters for a change. Rosario/ABW/Arcia would be Plouffe's backup in left, Hicks would be depth in center, Arcia and ABW would be behind Hicks in right. Plouffe, Escobar and Santana would back up third, Santana would back up SS and 2nd, and Plouffe, Vargas, Sano would back up 1B. Max Kepler would start at AAA. Starters would be Hughes, Santana, Nolasco, Duffy, and May with Berrios, Milone, Meyer and the prospect received for Dozier/Gibson in the wings. Bullpen would be Jepson, Perkins, Duensing, Neftali Feliz, Tommy Hunter (both F.A. acquisitions), and some combination of existing relief and starters (thinking right now Milone and Meyer). "A" lineup is Hicks, Mauer, Sano, Arcia (putting a lot of stock in this guy's rebound, no doubt), Plouffe, Rosario, Escobar, catcher, Buxton. But the big keys to this transformation are moving Rosario to second base and Plouffe to left field (and given Plouffe's ability to play SS and 3B, I think he can be an effective LF, though not trying to clone the Alex Gordon experiment and expect the same results). This allows us to trade Dozier, keep Rosario in the lineup at a position where his OBP doesn't hurt you, keep Plouffe and still play Sano, and beefs up the three biggest holes - catcher, potential frontline starter, and relief, all while being cost-controlled and maintaining budget. And the trades are not that substantial - some combination of Gibson and Dozier for a great catcher and starting pitcher prospect. Or it could be simplified, depending on how you want to approach it, and Dozier is traded for a catcher, and Gibson remains. I just feel both are sell-high candidates right now, and this team has not sold high on anyone in a long time - they've looked for other team's castoffs and low-dollar free agents, but this gives them trade chips that will bring back quality in return. How would you shape the roster for next year?

We have a rotation, today, of Santana, Gibson, Pelfrey, Milone, and Duffy. Let's say, theoretically, that we arrive at game 162 and need a game 163, or, better yet, a one-game playoff against the Yankees or Blue Jays (no other scenario seems very plausible right now, at least not one involving the Twins). Santana could pitch a game 163, though I'm not certain I'd want him to unless he starts picking it up a notch or two. I'm assuming Phil Hughes will be ready by then, but not certain I want him pitching in Yankee Stadium or against Toronto with his fly-ball tendencies and the way those lineups are constructed. What's your post-season rotation right now? The more I thought about it, looking at a rotation of Gibson, Milone, Duffy and Hughes, putting Pelfrey into the bullpen, still leaves me wanting. The person in my opinion that I'd most like to see starting a game 163 or Wild Card road game on the East Coast is sitting in AAA right now, and won't be on our playoff roster unless we bring him up before September (something that seems the club has not discussed publicly as being even a possibility). I realize there are other lineup issues to resolve if October baseball is a possibility, and feel free to discuss them all. But specifically, who is your game 163 starter or Wild Card starter, and (assuming for fun we win that or those) your ALDS rotation?

With the roster shuffling that's already occurred, I find this list less daunting than I'd feared. There will always be guys you want to add to the roster but also enough wiggle room to make trades or off-season acquisitions. Thanks for the link to your previous post (for some reason it didn't appear when I plugged "40 man" into the search tool).... There have been so many theoretical trade threads lately that I thought this list would be a good sideboard to those options. At least it doesn't appear that any top prospects would be exposed by a too-full cupboard. In an unrelated note, anyone know why all the posts show up in Greenwich Mean Time? This post, for instance, said it was done at 5:40 a.m. when it is 11:40 p.m. CDT.

As we approach the non-waiver trade deadline, many commenters have discussed the logjam that we are facing in the roster decisions that will need to be made this off-season. While we search for potential catchers, relief pitchers, and other assorted pieces of the puzzle (both this year and next), it would help me greatly if someone could list the names of those we need to add to the roster this offseason or risk losing to Rule 5 or minor league free agency. Whether this is in the form of a proposed trade, or just informational, I would love to see a list of those who need to be added, as well as suggestions of those who will need to be removed in some form or fashion to make room for these prospects. Assuming no major trades (or that a trade only swaps an equivalent number of rostered players for new players) how many need to be added - and trimmed - in the next six months? Who would you add? Who would you remove? Here is a link to the existing 40-man (plus Nolasco makes 41). http://minnesota.twins.mlb.com/team/roster_40man.jsp?c_id=min

With Tonkin being optioned back to the minor leagues, the Twins have created a hole in the lineup in advance of a 10-game road trip, with the first six of those games in National League ballparks. Some people have suggested that Oswaldo Arcia could return, or a utility player such as Doug Bernier. However, it has appeared to me that the Twins have tried to introduce new prospects during road series, in order to avoid the double-edged nerve-sword of a simultaneous major league and home debut. This would apply to three of the names being bandied about as potential replacements, and a case can be made for each one. Alex Meyer - since his switch to relief, he has been very strong, and he only faced a couple of batters last night. Fans are anxious to see what this now-25 year old prospect will bring to the table. He is clearly an upgrade to the bullpen in terms of strikeout ability, though fears of his release point, consistency, and walks remain. On the other hand, Molitor has spoken frequently of wanting an extra bat for the lineup during NL games, and expressed confidence in the starters' ability to go deep into games. Since we were sporting 13 pitchers prior to Tonkin's departure, that would suggest that the 25th man will be someone who is both on the 40-man roster (saving that 40th spot for Santana a week from Sunday) and can contribute in some fashion to the big club. Two prominent names vying for that spot are Miguel Sano and Max Kepler, both in Chattanooga and both all-stars in the league. Kepler has been white hot lately, and plays multiple positions in the outfield and first base. Sano is a bigger household name, and while he is a big swing-and-miss candidate, contact equates to something special for fans to see. However, he plays third base and has not had significant time in any other position and it seems less likely that the Twins would remove Trevor Plouffe from the lineup. That would mean that Sano plays only as a pinch-hitter or Plouffe plays at first base for a game or two giving Joe Mauer a day off. There are some day games after night games coming up, so that possibility should not be entirely discounted . Do you expect a major league debut tomorrow night in Milwaukee? If so, who do you expect to see?

I like the fact that Nolasco's spot and Berrios's spot in the rotation line up (you know, just in case....)

Seth, et al - this is a great series, but I would like to see a 2014 slash line for the player. It helps me decide whether the projected lines are reasonable progressions or regressions. Several of these profiles have not contained a 2014 baseline. Add doubles, triples, SBs, SOs, whatever, but at least avg/obp/slg plus doubles/homers.

The eyeball test last year didn't suggest to me that a quicker outfield would have contained Ricky Nolasco. That man's era wouldn't have dropped half a run if he pitched for the Royals post-season defense. I'm not an advanced stat person, but it strikes me that someone who consistently underperforms his peripheral numbers simply means that he pitches less well in crucial situations. That his hr/walk/strikeout ratios versus his era means that one batter per game that you "really need to get out" he doesn't get out as often as all the other guys he pitches to. That's what you see when you look at the guy some of the time as well. He augers in and digs a hole and his numbers reflect that. It's like that relief pitcher we all hate (no names here) who allows in the inherited runner, but keeps his era low because the guy after him keeps his runner(s) from scoring. Yes, I think defense matters - it inspires confidence, and confidence influences pitch selection, and stops a pitcher from trying to be too fine, and allows him to relax. Most everybody reading this wants him to find that peace and confidence and relaxation (even in the absence of the stout D).

We have 52 replies but one question: what do we have? Is he a late-inning stopper? A top of the rotation guy? A long reliever? A #3? You have to let this guy pitch! He's going to be whatever he is, but his confidence is not going to increase or decrease depreciably in minor league baseball. He has big-league talent, and he needs to slot in to this team now. He's way past worrying about his ego getting bruised by being hit. He might rise to the occasion but we are never going to find out until we put him on the field. He does not strike me as a pitcher who needs more seasoning. Whatever strengths or shortcomings he has, he is ready to work them out in the big leagues. Ready or not ready, he's a big boy. I think he's ready - to find out. (I know I am ready to find out).