South Dakota Tom

I'll take a backward approach to this, as it seems that the bench will be Solano, Farmer, Taylor and Jeffers against RH pitchers, and Kiriloff, Gordon, Vazquez and Kepler/Gallo against LH pitchers. Variety will ensue, but putting the strongest defensive lineup together would probably have Solano or Farmer as DH and the other as 1B against lefties, and Kepler/Gallo/Gordon (whichever isn't playing a corner that day) against righties. Polanco can DH and be rested with Farmer or Solano taking his spot, primarily against lefties; Taylor can spell Byron on days he is DH (or an all LH outfield of Kepler, Gallo, Gordon). Farmer plays 3B and Miranda DHs. Vazquez will get a few DH spots. Ultimately, I see Gordon, Farmer, and Buxton as the most-common DHs the way this lines up, but it will be a potpourri.

Gallo belongs in that list as a candidate for top half of the order (whether that's leading off or clean-up in some situations, he makes runs happen). So does Gordon, or Farmer when he starts games versus LH pitchers. Feels like versatility and depth to me. I see so much talent (with all the normal caveats), just excited for this time of year and the hope I have for this team.

Two posts in one day is a lot for me, and I think the OP has the right approach, but should take sequence into account. Really, if we keep Urshela, then we probably don't get Farmer (remember when Urshela was our Plan B at SS?), and if we don't get Farmer, we wouldn't have stayed in the Correa sweepstakes as long, and Miranda is probably 1B, and then Kiriloff is LF, and I don't know what we do with Arraez. Miranda at third maximizes our team if he can handle the position, and if he can't we have Farmer to cover it, and possibly Gordon. Miranda at third allows Larnach to be a primary DH (not necessarily the primary DH), and our adds in the outfield give us depth, flexibility, and a potential all-world defensive 7-9. As an aside, just scrolling through mlb.com team page for the Twins, and Miranda shows up on the depth chart as the starting 3B, 1B, and DH, so I like our options at 1B (Kiriloff, Gallo) and DH (anyone) better than thinning our team by playing Miranda anywhere but third.

Range will matter more at 2B for Polanco than arm strength. It's a short throw, and now that infielders are prohibited from starting in the outfield grass, it should (almost) never be a long throw. The ball should get to him quicker as well since he's closer to home plate, so lateral movement will determine a lot more this year in terms of a player's ability to cover his position. Same is probably true for Miranda at 3B, though it would be rare (other than a 3B playing fundamentally a deep short) for him to start too deep to field and throw out anyone other than on a slow-roller. That first-step lateral quickness, quick reads on ball angles, and a quick release - as you mentioned in the article - will dictate outs more than pure strength of arm. And avoiding errors. And fly-ball pitchers.

This was a very well-though-out article, and while some adjustments might be made (as suggested above), I think yours is a solid starting point. Will Joey hit? Will we add a RH slugger anywhere? The next extension of this is a "who do we bring up if X is injured?" - If Buxton (RH OF), I think it's Garlick. If LH OF, I think it's Wallner. If it's the right side of the infield, right now I'd say Julien. If it is the left side of the infield, either Farmer slides into the everyday 3B/SS role, and we add Julien, but maybe there's a spot for Martin (Lee) (Lewis). I don't know who they would consider the 3rd catcher, but glad they have some names at AAA to chose from.

I believe that it is more important to have at least 2 open slots in your bullpen not committed to veteran mlb contracts than any single pitcher still available (though I understand the argument for Chafin). We will want/need to rotate the middle or long-relievers to create a couple of extra spots on the 26-man. Creatively done, you can stretch your roster to well over 30 without waiting for injury. Don't believe we will add a RH power bat to back up anything. No offense to CJ Cron, Gurriel, or Luke Voit, or others, but if Larnach or Kiriloff injuries are your concern, that's why you have Gordon, Farmer, Taylor, and hoping to give Julien an opening. One cannot simultaneously request that we play the young guns and also advocate for filling the lineup with anchor contracts. I also look at the 3 pending free agent starters and am reminded of a line from Step Brothers (which I'll paraphrase and change the names) - instead of Oprah, Hillary, Barbara Walters, we use Maeda, Mahle, Gray and say "sleep with one, marry one, kill one." I think we stick with Kenta for the season and then let him walk, trade high on Sonny Gray if we're not directly aiming at the World Series as I think his value will be great for a number of borderline teams, and extend Mahle, but that's just a guess..... We will have Paddock, Lopez, (resigned Mahle?), Ryan and an opening for any one of a number of potential starters.

I do like it when people quote The Incredibles, Matt.

I can't vouch for where Miguel is, physically and emotionally, and his production depends in no small part on his energy, commitment, and effort. That being said, I am a bigger fan of his than most on here. He has carried this team for weeks-long stretches in the past, and is more than capable of doing the same again. His periods of greatest productivity, it seems to me, came amidst a team-wide boon. He is not someone who a team can hide well in a lineup of underproducing batsmen. However, when placed before/after hitters in a stronger lineup, where they cannot afford to nibble at him (cue the visual of him missing a low outside curve by a solid foot), he has shown prodigious power and enough of a keen eye to be dangerous. If you can stomach the strikeouts, he's a walking .800 OPS/30+ HR guy. To me, in 2023, he is a potential early-season possibility. The team needs RH power (check) and doesn't have a set DH against lefties. IF (and only if) the team trades Kepler, thereby moving Kiriloff to full-time 1B, Larnach/Gordon to LF, and does not bring up Julien right away (which would be great if he earned it, but admittedly a long shot), we would have a bench/DH of Jeffers, Farmer, Celestino, Gordon/Larnach. I could see Miguel in the 6-hole. That might not last forever, especially if he struggles or is not in shape (and that ship may already have sailed), but as a bridge until Julien/Lewis/Lee is ready, it's not the worst option. Yes, I would rather have Kepler/Buxton/Gallo in the outfield and use Farmer, Vazquez, or Larnach as a DH. But if we get value for Kep and want to clear space for other outfielders, he is a buy-low candidate.

Big swing here, but is there one way to keep Polanco and Arraez and still get two pitchers? - we would give the Marlins Kepler and Brooks Lee and get back Luzardo and Cabrera. I know losing Lee hurts, but he is one of 4 SS/IF prospects, and with Farmer and Royce Lewis and Martin and Julien and the current infield, he is (in a weird way) almost expendable. Four years of control over Luzardo and Cabrera, Marlins get a potential stud and a valuable LH outfielder for something that is surplus to them (with their current rotation plus Eury and Max Meyer).

It isn't hard to disagree with the premise, either (though, of course, respectfully....). We improved at catcher (Vazquez over Gary Sanchez), 1B (Arraez over Sano), 2B is the same, SS is the same, 3B is Miranda over Urshela, utility is Farmer over Gordon. OF - Kiriloff, Buxton, Kepler, Celestino, versus Buxton, Gordon, Kepler (prob gone), Larnach, Kiriloff, Gallo. Our depth, both infield and outfield, is better. SP - Gray, Mahle, Maeda, Ryan, Ober is better than Gray, Bundy, Archer, Paddock, Ryan; in 2022, Ober, Winder was your fall-back, this year, we have Winder, Varland, Woods Richardson, and Paddock down the road (plus, of course, the starter we get from Miami!). RP - Duffy, Pagan, Joe Smith, Thielbar, Cotton, Duran, Coloumbe, Romero versus Duran, Alcala, Thielbar, Lopez, Pagan, Jax, Henriquez, Moran. And the irrefutable argument that last year we got injured and played poorly, and this year, we just don't yet know!

I think any potential Miami trade will come down to the internal assessment of Alex Kiriloff's wrist - if they believe in him, I could see the Arraez/Kepler deal, but would rather have multiple years of Luzardo than 2 of Lopez.

I believe it is a team option either way - it "locks in" if he gets 550 ABs.

Something else this does is open up the “come see what we got” cupboard. Brings attention and potential competitive bidding to our whole roster. Makes trades possible if it is perceived you have an excess supply.

I agree that Max's trade value is low right now, and I like his ability to bounce back and become either very valuable relative to his salary and options, in which case we keep him, or at least "more valuable" for purposes of a mid-season trade. I think, given Buxton's injury history that having Max as a really good fielding RF is important and creates the least drop-off when Max goes to CF. Don't know how much the shift changes are going to impact his BA, but right now the "perception" is that they won't very much, and that's a reasonable gamble to say that it will and bank on his defense and a little better contact (and comfort at the plate, as he's no longer trying to steer his contact in directions his swing doesn't want to go). Hey, the best time to trade Max Kepler was the winter of '19 - not now. The clearest way I see to clean this up (over and above the CC acquisition as an offseason move) is a trade of Arraez for someone like Jesus Luzardo of the Marlins (pretty equivalent values on Cot's). That would open up 1B for Kiriloff on a full-time basis, give us 4 years of control over a young starter who finished '22 pretty well and could profile into any starting rotation with cost control. We haven't sold high on a player in a long time.

I've made pleas (well, at least loud suggestions) that the Twins can perform best by snatching the second-tier free agents, starting about a week from now and on through January. Once the top FAs are gobbled up by big spenders, there are relative bargains available. Those remaining jobless will start to look to solidify the available offers and choose among them. No one (short of a handful) want to begin February without a pretty clear view of where he will play. Once half the teams in the league have hit their theoretical ceilings on payroll, the remaining teams compete against fewer suitors. On the other hand, there comes a point pretty early in the process where all the best players are gone. A team resorts to second-tier FAs or gutting the farm system in order to make substantial improvements (at least from outside the organization). A dozen or so teams must always swim in this end of the pool - counting on internal improvement, player development, and trades of even moderately-priced veterans in order to continue to stock the minors until a group of them simultaneously catches fire and opens a window of contention. The Twins can continue, and probably with moderate success, to exist in that middle strata. Wait until the biggest markets buy up the best players and hit their spending caps, and then use their now-relatively-grand spending power to elbow out the also-rans for the pick of the remaining crop. If a team is uber-successful in identifying the best of that second tier of talent, bargains are out there, and a combination of bargains can set a team up for a season or two. With the needs of the team this year, however, my tune is changing. The players we need don't reside completely in the aftermath of the early shakeout period. We need a high-end RH hitting outfielder. We need a job-sharing catcher. We need one more frontline starter. We need at least one (more) superstar in the field to plug into the top three in the daily lineup. My path to that end is riskier, certainly, than the middle-of-the-pack strategy outlined above. It starts with Rodon. 4 yrs/$110M. If we can get Correa for 10/$300, that's next. If not, pivot to Xander at 6/$175. That's adding $60M/yr already, and I want Haniger and Vasquez, which means I'm trading Kepler (he's the most expensive of the surplus of LH OFs) and Arraez (don't trust his knees or defense) to gain a couple more high-upside arms to help bolster the starting pitching pipeline. I assume we'd still be adding a total of $70M to the payroll, pushing $160M. And I'm (I know, I know) bringing back an old friend - highly motivated on a 1-year prove-it deal. I like the lineup - Buxton, Polanco, Bogaerts, Haniger, Kiriloff, Miranda, Larnach, Sano, Vasquez/Jeffers. I like the rotation - Rodon, Gray, Mahle, Maeda, Ryan (with Ober, Winder, SWR, Paddack, Varland, Enlow, Catarino, Balazovic behind) and some from that group as middle relief. C: Ryan Jeffers ($0.70M) 1B: Alex Kiriloff ($0.70M) 2B: Jorge Polanco ($7.50M) 3B: Jose Miranda ($0.70M) SS: Xander Bogaerts ($29.00M) LF: Trevor Larnach ($0.70M) CF: Byron Buxton ($15.00M) RF: Mitch Haniger ($12.00M) DH: Miguel Sano ($3.0M) 4th OF: Kyle Garlick ($0.70M) Utility: Nick Gordon ($0.70M) Utility: Kyle Farmer ($4.65M) Backup C: Christian Vasquez ($8.0M) SP1: Carlos Rodon ($27.5M) SP2: Sonny Gray ($12.0M) SP3: Tyler Mahle ($8.0M) SP4: Joe Ryan ($0.70M) SP5: Kenta Maeda ($9.0M) RP: Jhoan Duran ($0.70M) RP: Jorge Lopez ($3.00M) RP: Griffin Jax ($0.70M) RP: Jorge Alcala ($1.00M) RP: Caleb Thielbar ($2.00M) RP: Ronny Henriquez ($0.70M) RP: Jovani Moran ($0.70M) RP: Emilio Pagan ($4.0M) Payroll is 8.71% over budget

I think the "if this guy's our SS, we're doomed" logic is misplaced. We've got money to spend, but if you spend $35M/yr on Correa, now we're down to $15M to address catcher, SP, RP, and RH OF. It sure strikes me that depth at C, SP, RP and RH OF are far worse than depth at SS, if you look beyond the first half of 2023. Some things are going to have to work out right for this team to win - it won't happen if you dedicate 75% of your available capital on a SS, especially one on a long contract. If we're going to be truly good, Lewis (and I'm betting on Brooks Lee) will be the stalwart SS on the team. We add 1 above-Gray SP, 1 above-Alcala/Lopez RP, a 2nd catcher, and a Haniger-type RF, and hope/trust that Jeffers, Arraez, Polanco, Lewis/Lee, Miranda, Kiriloff/Larnach, Buxton, Haniger, with a rotating DH and a Farmer, Gordon, 2nd catcher, Lewis/Lee (we'll see who actually moves to 4th OF, probably not either of these guys) backstock is enough. 3 yrs of deGrom at $35M, trade for a Jays catcher, trade Kepler to add 1 name to the Duran, Lopez, Alcala, Jax, Thielbar, Moran, Sands, Winder, Ober, Pagan relief pile, keeping at least 2 of them for 2+-inning stints. deGrom, Gray, Mahle, Maeda, Ryan (Ober, Winder, Varland, SWR, Canterino). You don't like that team? I haven't booked it on Roster Resource, but I'm thinking $50M between deGrom (who is probably closer to $40M) and Haniger, shed Kepler and save a few dollars getting a young RP, trade for a catcher, we're still under budget.

Omar Narvaez, Tucker Barnhart, both bat left-handed (as do Stephen Vogt and Jason Castro but I'm leaving them off this list). I think Sean Murphy from the A's (who want to get Langaliers more playing time) might be a worthwhile investment and is not yet 28. We do need depth at that position, so something is going to happen.

I would love to see a Sean Murphy signing now that the A’s brought up Langaliers. I don’t think CC is signing up again either (though it is possible) but I feel like they’ll use Palacios or even Urshela as SS until Lewis is ready and hope that they can rotate AK, Arraez, and Miranda at 1b. Miranda plays 3rd, or Urshela. If Larnach is healthy and we have Celestino and Gordon to sub in the OF, I don’t see any more position player moves. As many have said, structure the bullpen to have 3-4 multi-inning guys (1x through the order), some of whom you can rotate between AAA and the big club and 4-5 more 1-inning guys, all but one of whom you are willing to waive if they aren’t pitching well so you don’t get stuck with big contracts and clogged lineups. If any reasonable combination of Ryan, Gray, Mahle, Ober, Winder, Paddock, Maeda, make up a starting 5, those relievers become crucial. My personal opinion is that flexibility and numbers of arms are more important than “going out and getting two veterans.”

Until injuries take us down a different path, I think we keep 14 pitchers through May. That means Garlick and Godoy (once Sanchez is ready to catch regularly) go down. Celestino goes down when Kiriloff is available, leaving Gordon, Arraez, Larnach, and Sanchez beyond the primary 8 in the field to be DH and bench. Good question, too, as to which of those gets added when we have to have 13 position players at end of next month Lots more questions when Sonny returns - one of the starting six is going to have to move into the shoes of Winder as long reliever #1, and then Winder returns when/if a starter goes down (probably back to long relief with the #6 starter back in the rotation, with Winder being starter #7). When we're capped at 13 pitchers at the end of May, you are going to be down to one long man (demoted 6th starter) and Jax goes down as we'll need 7 one-inning guys (right now Smith, Duffey, Coulombe, Duran, Thielbar, Stashak and Pagan). Can't have six starters and two long relievers with a 13-man pitching staff. Does Winder take the place of one of the short guys? Does Jax?

Reaction on WS media won’t be pretty. Someone mentioned something about “kicking it around” IIFC.

For the old man record, it was George “Scrap Iron” Gadaski. I remember a Saturday morning when he got to beat Nick Bockwinkle. Our jaws dropped.

Some things are going to have to go right for the team. One pitcher coming up and dominating would be necessary to any recipe for (ultimate) success, and probably a second stalwart #4+ along with playoff-worthy starters among the 1-4 we already have. You think a frontline starter is coming along who is gonna get inexpensive as the year rolls on? Best chance of that is a rental (my preference) in the Doyle Alexander mode. Best part is that we can do both. Adding that final piece becomes good strategy on a team that is one piece away, but this whole thing never happens without one or two young pups pitching nosebleed baseball.

All these issues dovetail together. You use Winder, Balazovic, Duran, Enlow, Strotman, early in the season, you are maximizing their major league innings but push them into a place they may not be ready for. You sign Cueto or Archer, those next-man-up players are going to use up their innings in the minors. Under both scenarios, they aren't available later in the season, as none of them has a sufficient workload track record to produce an entire season of starting pitching. Do you rely on other teams fading, and other pitchers becoming available (and affordable) later in the season? We might not like it, but I think the team views the combination of a 28-man roster and the additional off-days through the first month to avoid having to make any decision at all (unless something falls into their laps). Just hope that they are still competitive and don't get off to a 2021-like start and their season is finished in the first month. I see them using Jax, Cotton, Stashak, and Thorpe to open or fill in innings in the early part of the season, when fewer spot starts are needed. Then they promote one of Balazovic, Duran, Strotman, Winder or Enlow (or others) or rotate some combination of those guys. Given that each one can be sent back down 5 times, it appears you can rotate five guys five times each every five days gives you 125+ days of baseball even if each guy only starts one game. You would like to think that some of them will do well enough as a 5th starter to justify multiple starts before being rotated back out again. With careful management of their innings in the minors (2-3 inning starts, 50-60 pitch limits) that might stretch an entire season. These things do have a way of working themselves out - someone from the minors elevates into a clear starter (Canterino, Varland, Henriquez, Sands, Woods Richardson), or Winder, Balazovic, Duran, Enlow, Strotman levels up successfully. We're going to need some of that to happen in almost any set of circumstances.

Twins need a 15-man bullpen. Every contract they sign with a 40-man guarantee is one less spot to rotate or test young starters in short stints. They need to pick a path (and as much as we are skeptical I think they are). No way to sign these guys plus run 5-7 arms up and down. I like the selections here but deny that we can maximize our burgeoning corps and any hope for the future with every “win now” roster-block we add.

I liked this the most of any I have read. Lots of moves but the shaken-up team has a lot of upside. Maybe I just like trades more than FA signings. Thanks for taking your shot!