Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

Trov

Verified Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    2,090

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    2

 Content Type 

Profiles

News

Tutorials & Help

Videos

2023 Twins Top Prospects Ranking

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

Free Agent & Trade Rumors

Guides & Resources

Minnesota Twins Players Project

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by Trov

  1. Trov
    I will be honest I had not heard of Encarnacion-Strand until this early hot weekend. He strikes me as someone that will need to keep proving he can put up numbers at each level until he is considered a serious prospect. If he can really defend at 3rd and not just a bat only that will help. From what I saw, he has always hit well, but huge concerns about his chase rate and K rate. Now, I was one that always defended Eddie for his chase rate, that sometimes there are guys that can expand the zone and get hits. They are few and far between though. The big question will be when he starts facing the same guys, scouting reports get out on him, and he faces higher competition if that chase rate really starts to hurt him with more K's and more weak contacts, or will he learn to be more selective on what he swings at.
  2. Trov
    I had no issue with the trade. As pointed out pen pitchers are risky and can fall off quickly, and you can also get big seasons out of no where from many guys. I personally feel people overvalue "closers". I will agree, our pen is worse now then it was with Rogers, but I am not ready to say this will cost us any games in the long run. Rogers was good, but not amazing. I never felt when he was in there the game was over, like when Nathan was here. I would also agree that the value brought back is most likely more than what we would have got at a mid-season trade if we are not winning. To remain competitive, you need to continue to bring in guys with value and team control, and be willing to trade guys away before they walk for nothing. The Rays do this all the time and do a great job at it.
  3. Trov
    Arraez did not have much of a drop off since 2019, he actually increased his hard hit rate, and last year he dealt with knee issues. With the no more juiced ball I think he is close to expectations. A little higher average and OBP would be nice, but I am not worried about his bat at all. Gordon is on the team for his ability to play just about any position, his ability to run, and he is a better hitter than his numbers suggest. If you followed Gordon over his career when he would get to next level he would start off slow, and people would question his ability, only to adjust to the league and get people back on board. He is not a top SS by any means, but he will be a decent utility guy in his career. He is out of options and there is no plan to have him take too many at bats from guys but can fill in just about anywhere when needed.
  4. Trov
    It will be interesting to see if hitters ever adjust to the fastball of Ryan. It does look like it rises and all those swings under it creates either misses or popups a lot too. As long as they are not hitting it out of the park he will get a lot of flyouts to go with strike outs. I know MLB sample size small but his numbers have been good. If you look at his minor league numbers they overall have been good too. He has always had more double digit K's per 9, and with 2 or less walks per 9, for a good K to Walk rate. If his fastball sat at 95 he would be ranked as one of best rookie pitchers in the game. I am rooting for Joe to show you do not need the velo to win, but you can still pitch yourself to being good. Ray is the opposite, he will always get by on his velo and slider movement. If he is not spotting his fastball he will get back to walking guys. Once he loses some velo he will drop off quickly I would think. I personally think he will regress back to his norm. He is going to be 30 this year, coming off of a career year in contract year. He pitched last year better than he ever has by far, except for hard hit rate still very high. To me that suggests he got some luck. Maybe he finally found some control, but having long term walk issues just go away one season is a little surprising. Maybe Toronto unlocked something in that matter. It just raises and eye brow that he is still giving up huge hard hit rate with such a low OBP.
  5. Trov
    I have a feeling the plan for the first 2 to 3 weeks this season is to really piggy back starters. I doubt many starters first start will go more than 5 innings no matter the pitch count. I also bet they will have pitch counts no more than 80 some even less. So the guys like Winder will then be asked to do a good 3 to 4 innings as well.
  6. Trov
    If Buck and Correa both stay healthy, I bet they will go down as best duo numbers wise, and the fact that both play top defense at top defensive positions. Both Buck and Correa have won award for best overall defender in a given season. To me that is what would put them above the rest if they can also put up the offense we expect.
  7. Trov
    Agree with concern 1, if that UCL fully tears that is 2 lost years. For number 2, I would not say the splits are that bad of home road in his career to say he benefited from home parks. His splits difference is 19 more innings at home with only a few more earned runs on road. So did it play some over his career yes, but keep in mind his best season many of his road games would have been in hitter friendly parks too, that being NY and Boston. That year his numbers were actually better on the road. Meaning, I do not see the splits as a home park thing. In terms of number 3, I think you are reaching as both were on the trading block last year before the lockout.
  8. Trov
    So I get why people are upset when you look at the traditional counting numbers this looks like a downgrade for the Twins. I get a little confused when some commenters are saying we should have went after Manaea and give up middle of road prospects to get him for 1 year rental. However, if you look at the FIP of Paddack, last year was his best of his short career so far. People should know that Padres was the league average defensive team, Twins last year was double the runs saved than Padres. As long as our team can stay healthy we have two of the best defenders in all the league at the top defensive positions. Meaning, if Paddack can pitch close to his FIP again and get some decent defense behind him, people will be changing their tune quickly on him. On the face, Pagan is a downgrade to Rogers. However, not as big of a drop off as some think. The writer says Rogers is coming off of best career year, but I would not agree with that. His 2018 and 2019 years were much better. By certain numbers he may be, but overall I would say no he is not. Pagan is a downgrade for sure, but no one is saying he will slip into the same role as Rogers. I think people have inflated what Rogers has done recently. He is not the same guy from 3 and 4 years ago. He has shown he is a lefty specialist now. He has shown he is not good on back to back days. He has blown many saves, which we had him as a closer before, but he started blowing saves the last two years. I liked Rogers, but if Paddack can pitch anywhere close to his potential this will be a huge steal for the Twins. My guess is Twins think they can make some adjustments for him and get him straight. It is an interesting trade that may pay off huge, but it is not like we gave up a ton. Rodgers is not that amazing where we know when he comes in the game is over. Yes, he was most likely best of what we had recently, but I do not mind the trade at all. I trust the FO and coaching staff has spotted something in Paddock that they think they can fix his issues from last year and get the potential he showed when first broke into league. Sometimes just a change in teams will fix a guy.
  9. Trov
    I think they are not expecting much from him, and if they can get him close to his 2019 2020 seasons the team will be very happy. If he struggles, they can look to trade him, or just cut him if Miranda is ready to come up or just put Arraez in. They are not counting on Urshela to be anything amazing, he will be hitting 6th or 7th most games. I would agree we downgraded overall at 3rd base, but it freed up money to get a SS, maybe just for 1 year but huge upgrade there, and we have others that can play 3rd base, we did not have anyone ready to play SS this year.
  10. Trov
    Good to see Lewis playing. Personally, I am not concerned about his knee injury. Most people return to full strength from that surgery with little issue. Mostly it is the mental side of things that you feel like you can do what you did before without issue. I had the surgery and after 6 months physically I could do what I did before, but it took awhile to get my mind right to say do what you want it is fine. I was back doing everything I did after about a year with no issues for many years. I would not worry about it for him, he is far removed from the surgery.
  11. Trov
    If Buck can stay healthy he will be over the HR number. When healthy for a full year I think he will clearly pass 30. He has really found his power and his HR are crushed, not wall scrapers, and he is locked in turning on those breaking pitches. The only reason I would say under is because I expect only 81 to 90 games as that is his norm.
  12. Trov
    As long as the pitching prospects are healthy and available I would bet the leash is short for both Archer and Bundy. Last year, the leash was longer I feel because those two starters were not the only problem. Our pen was blowing lead after lead, we could not win a game in extras, and nothing was going right, so just bring in young starters was not going to fix the problems.
  13. Trov
    Gray has had better numbers than Berrios each of the last 3 seasons. Last year was close to each other. In 2019, Gray got Cy young votes, had a WAR of 5.9, by WAR it was the best of his career, but guess that was not a decent season. Gray is just as much of a sure thing as Berrios would be, unless you are saying Gray is aging and will fall off, but to argue his recent seasons are not good just does not hold water.
  14. Trov
    A lot of guys I plan to follow this year on the team. Many starters and hitters. Should be a good team until those guys get moved up.
  15. Trov
    The hope is will not need to get into the minors depth because the young core will be good to go for a few years. This gives time to rebuild the depth in the minors. Of course if there is a bunch of injuries, or poor performances it could be a few long years.
  16. Trov
    The only non-roster guy that may make team is Garlick for Rooker. Other than that I see no changes to 40 man roster.
  17. Trov
    A few comments. The innings thing mentioned you need to remember that very few starters pitch much more than 150 innings in a season. Only 39 pitchers threw more than 159 innings last season, and Twins had only 1 of them, Berrios. In 2019, there was several more pitchers that threw over 150, but not a ton over the 150, and Twins had like 4 guys, Berrios, Perez, Gibson and Odo. Big Mike was just below 150, and we as a team did just fine. Berrios and Perez were the top innings guys with Gibson and Odo 160 and 159. So to argue that we cannot win because it is unlikely people will pitch more than 150 innings, to me, is not backed up by data. Now, in terms of Manaea, I wish the Twins would have at least asked about him, but rumors are they did not even ask, which means either they are high on what they have, or they are low on Manaea. we know they have talked to Oakland about their other starter. I do not know if Twins were low on him because maybe his numbers were inflated pitching in Oakland, a pitchers park. It could be lack of years of control affected this as well. In terms of the prospects, it is highly likely we could have matched, although I do not know if Cavaco would be the IF that got it done. More likely Miller. Maybe Manaea does well for Padres and we look a fool for not going after him. Maybe not. Maybe we actually make deal with Padres now as they are starter heavy and need OF help. Finally, I find the hype on Petty interesting. He was a late first round pick, that some scouts had as a reach. Yes, he has the velo, but even with that velo he was still 13th pitcher taken, and 5th High School pitcher taken. Sure he may be a good pitcher in future, but to slate him as the face of a pitching staff right now is some major hype. He is 7th prospect in Reds, and was around there with Twins. Maybe he will live up to that hype, but high school pitchers are generally a gamble.
  18. Trov
    The only move that I think would make any sense would be Garlick for Rooker, unless they are hoping a pitcher can sneak through, or does not care. I am not sold on Rooker having any future. He is DH only, or should be, and does not do that well either. At least Garlick will not be a complete statute in the OF and has shown he can hit lefties so he can take at bats from Kepler for until the starter is taken out then let Kepler hit later in game and play defense.
  19. Trov
    Every team has a ton of If's every year. It is always if our best players can stay healthy. If our pitchers perform well. If our team hits well. I get where the writer is going with this, but every team has the if player x grows or plays like they did in past, or stays healthy. You have an if Buck stays healthy, which then assumes he will play at the MVP level he was last year when healthy, but maybe he will be healthy but return to his young 20's form and be below average offense. So that is really 2 ifs for one player. We have ifs on health for each player, and performance on each player. No team does well if their players play below expectations going into the season.
  20. Trov
    Please provide who you wish they would have signed or traded for, instead of who they have. Lets assume the deals would have been comparable or most likely slightly more in price, and the trades would have been similar or give reasonable hypothetical trades. Then, look at the end of the season and see if your plan or the way the Twins went turned out better. Then you can submit this to the Pohlads for your case as to why you should now be GM for the Twins. As you said, only time will tell, but to assume our rotation will be terrible and other viable options would have been better makes no sense. The past results of just about every FA pitcher, outside of Scherzer, has huge question marks of either health or coming off of career years with long sustained poor pitching. Maybe the likes of Rondon, Robbie Ray, Gausman, and many others will be good with their teams, but just about every FA had red flags, either coming off of career year, history of injury, or relying on past success hoping the last year was a fluke. So many people are down on the trades or moves not made, and just assume the young guys will have 0 success and the flier guys will have 0 success, not even looking at the fact that several of the top signings this year, Rondon, Ray, and Gausman have all had long stints of average to poor years only to have recent success, entering FA years. I am not saying those guys will flop, but pitchers are volatile and some will drop off, and some will bounce back.
  21. Trov
    The notion that Ryan will always match up against teams top arms based on starting opening day defies history. Yes, logic would say teams will commonly match up their 1 through 5 starters, but over a full season with injuries, off-days with teams skipping starts, or giving extra rest, double headers, and what not. This will lead to at times our 5 matching up against other teams 1 and vice versa. This does not mean we think he is our best pitcher, or that he will always get the start against other teams best pitchers. There is 162 games in a season, this is just 1 of them. We have no clue how other teams will adjust their starters based on their team and schedule, nor do we know how we will down the road. If this was a post-season series I would say it is a big deal, but really to me it is much to do about nothing.
  22. Trov
    I just want to point out about possible signings or trades, that in 2018, many would have loved us to trade for Chris Archer. Pretty sure many wrote about how we should. If we had, we would have lost on that trade as after he was traded he pitched terrible and was injured. The point is, pitching is volatile, they get injured, they fall off cliffs never pitching like they had earlier in their careers. Guys that looked to be on way to HOF just stop pitching well for some reason. I could list dozens and dozens over the last few decades that fit that bill. Some do it after they sign big deals. Everyone seems to think we would be better off with a vet late 20's to early 30's pitcher and assume they will be better than the young to mid 20's guys, simply because they have not pitched at MLB for long, or at all. Several years of decent pitching does not mean this year will be any better. The writer lists Cory Kluber as a signing made pre-lockout. He had a good first half last year, but injury again cost him. The last time he was good for a full year was 2018. Not much different that Archer. Rondon only good year was last year, his rookie year was decent. Many of the others listed, outside of Scherzer have had down years and outlier years. There is little reason to expect they will repeat their outlier year.
  23. Trov
    One thing I want to point out, the last 2 full season WS winners, not including 2020, where teams that no one expected even near the trade deadline to win it all. Specifically, last year, the Braves made a bunch of trades to fill holes that all paid off. That is not common for sure, but the point is, the FO has always pivoted when things were not working if they felt they had a chance. Last year was such a cluster of fails across the board early on that we had way too big of hole to climb out of. That being said, sure we did not bring in established FA pitchers, but history shows that is not the way to build your team on FA starting pitchers, most teams regret the deals they make by the end of the deal. Unless every young pitcher fails and both Bundy and Archer fails, I think they will be in contention this year. Yes, Sanchez does not make much sense, but it was needed to free up Donaldson to sign Correa. My guess when they traded Garver they did not plan to trade with Yankees, but Yankees most likely offered to take Donaldson for the SS, and the FO figured they could then use the savings to go after Story, who balked at our offer and Correa was the pivot. It is like people forget there are 30 teams all looking to do things with rosters and all the FA will just say MN is the place to go if they come calling. We have minor leaguers too. We do not see the progress that may have been made or how the team views the young pitchers. It is fully possible they see the young pitchers as better options than many of the FA out there. At some point the young guys need a chance, but if we always sign a vet to fill holes they never get that chance.
  24. Trov
    I know many have issues with lack of bringing recent established starting pitching, other than Gray. However, we have plenty of MLB, or near MLB ready prospects and brought in some flier options. With the contracts that the recent established starters got this year, I ma fine with not dipping into the FA market. We also do not know what the A's were asking for their starter right now. I give at least a b+ if not an A-. We locked up Buck to a contract that will not cost a ton if he keeps being hurt. We filled our SS hole, although for maybe only 1 year, but it came clear we were not going to fill it any other way and made a nice pivot. Too many people worry about the signings we did not make or trades we did not make, but never look at what we may have in the system, or how some long term contracts could affect us in the future beyond this year. Many long term FA contracts for pitchers have very low value after the first year or two. We also do not know if or what we offered any of them contracts and the specifics of them. Sure, if none of our young pitchers perform and the two fliers flop, then we can say we made a mistake, but if we signed all the top FA pitchers and they all got hurt or flopped we would say the same thing.
  25. Trov
    Gordon will break with team. His versatility on defense will carry. He can play all positions on defense, other than catcher. No one else on that list can do that. Although he may not be the best at them, he can be backup CF or SS if needed. That holds a lot of value. As for 4th OF I am not sure if Larnach will get it simply because Twins may want him to get regular at-bats. I think he would still get plenty of at-bats if he breaks with team though so I do expect him. I do expect Godoy as well with using Sanchez as normal DH they will want to have a 3rd catcher, although they have done the DH being backup catcher before without a 3rd so he is not a lock.
×
×
  • Create New...