verninski
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verninski reacted to John Bonnes for an article, Lol. Mets Owner Steve Cohen Gets Petty on Twitter about Carlos CorreaThe ongoing Mets negotiations with Carlos Corea and the agreed upon 12-year, $315M deal have dragged on for weeks after the Mets expressed concerns about Correa’s surgically repaired right leg. But there has always been optimism from both sides that a dea would get done because Cohen tends to get what he wants. And Cohen wanted Correa.
His attitude might have changed.
Cohen is not active on Twitter; his last tweet was back in November. Before today, the last tweet he liked was a Mets fan espousing signing Carlos Correa almost a month ago. But today he found a few that he liked that have a little different slant.
“Met fans? Don’t panic. In the event this isn’t a ploy remember, the Mets have options in either Escobar or a young gun in Baty. I want Carlos, but he needs the Mets more than they need him. Plus his options are shrinking. Stay the course. #lgm #nymets #MetsTwitter”
That was posted by @Adrian16010, discussing a story about how the Mets had grown “very frustrated” with the weeks-long negotiations they’ve had with Correa’s agent, Scott Boras. But Cohen wasn’t done. He also liked this one:
“We are already a better team than we were this time last year. Remember... We won 101 games last year. That's because of the commitment Steve Cohen has made to the team and fans. Whether the Correa deal works out not, it's great to have an owner willing to do anything to win!” - @BruceGamsey
This isn’t the only evidence that the chances of the Mets and Correa reaching an agreement could be fading. The aforementioned SNY’s story by Andy Martino yesterday claimed that a Mets source said the team was very frustrated and considering walking away. Later yesterday, Jim Bowden insisted that the Twins have again become a legitimate candidate on MLB Network Radio.
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verninski reacted to Nick Nelson for an article, The Top 20 Minnesota Twins Assets of 2023: Part 1 (16-20)These rankings are intended to provide a relative view of Twins players and prospects by appraising their big-picture value to the organization. The goal is to answer this question: Which current players in the organization are most indispensable to fulfilling the vision of building a champion?
We account for age, contract, controllability, upside, etc. It's not strictly a ranking of trade value, because that would be more team-agnostic, where this list aims to capture a very Twins-specific POV. As such, players at areas of scarcity (i.e. pitching) get elevated while those at areas of abundance (i.e. lefty-swinging corner guys) get downgraded a bit.
I always find compiling this list to be an interesting offseason exercise – one that surfaces unique conversations about Twins players, how we value them, and where the system's strengths and weaknesses truly lie.
What made it so challenging this year is that, by design, these rankings are a snapshot in time – published at the start of January for no other reason than a new year feels like a good time to reset and reassess – and right now, it's very tough to get a read on the state of this organization and its talent.
For one thing, it feels like we're in the midst of a slow-developing offseason journey with big twists still ahead. I have a strong feeling there will be noticeable changes to this list by March 30th.
But even more, there is SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY with the players they already have. A snapshot at this midpoint of the offseason lacks clarity around key health-related details with massive implications. I struggled with many decisions, and they begin to crop up in this first installment.
For example: If healthy, Tyler Mahle at $7.2 million is tremendously valuable, even with only one remaining year of team control. Can we safely operate under the assumption he'll be healthy and at full strength in 2023? (Spoiler alert: I decided no, and he just missed the cut.)
Another example: If his latest surgery works and Alex Kirilloff returns to being roughly the player he was before his wrist affliction, he's a centerpiece in the lineup controlled for several years. Can you assume such a rare and complex surgery will take? (Spoiler alert: My cautious optimism got him on the list, but as you'll soon learn, not very high.)
With that setup, let's kick off the countdown with my picks for the 16th through 20th most valuable assets in the Twins organization. First, you can check out my rankings from the past five years to see how the franchise's talent landscape has evolved:
Top 20 Twins Assets: 2018 Top 20 Twins Assets: 2019 Top 20 Twins Assets: 2020 Top 20 Twins Assets: 2021 Top 20 Twins Assets: 2022 Top 20 Twins Assets of 2023: 16 through 20
20. Matt Wallner, OF
2022 Ranking: NR
On a list like this, Wallner has a few key things working against him.
First, his player type – strikeout-prone LH corner bat with big power – is fairly abundant in baseball, as evidenced by the Twins signing the poster child in Joey Gallo for $11 million. Second, that player type happens to be especially abundant in the Twins organization. So long as Max Kepler remains camped in right field, Wallner lacks a direct path to the majors, even though his skill set looks ready.
The reason he still makes the list, just barely, is because his abilities within that skill set are SO exceptional. Baseball America rates Wallner as the best power hitter and best outfield arm in the Twins system – tools that were on display during a September debut in the majors.
Wallner didn't put up terribly impressive numbers in 18 games with the Twins but had some big moments, and if he's shown one thing during his ascent through the minors it's that he can quickly put a slow start at a new level behind him and start dominating once he gets comfortable.
The Twins will hope that's exactly what happens to the 25-year-old, who can make a big impact on the team's (near) future as either a slugger in the middle of the order or highly marketable trade chip.
19. Louie Varland, RHP
2022 Ranking: NR
Around this time last year, there was still a degree of widespread skepticism around Varland. Sure, he'd earned Twins Minor League Pitcher of the Year honors in 2021 with some truly dazzling numbers, but was this former 15th-round draft pick out of a D2 college the real deal, or a flash in the pan?
He backed up his breakout with a 2022 campaign that saw him:
Named Twins Minor League Pitcher of the Year for a second consecutive year, posting a 3.06 ERA in 126 innings between Double-A and Triple-A.
Debut in the major leagues, where he showed the poise and ability of a seasoned vet. In five starts, Varland posted a 3.81 ERA over 26 innings, completing at least five frames in each turn.
Skepticism remains regarding Varland's true ceiling, which is why he doesn't rank higher on this list, but he has solidified his standing as a turnkey mid-rotation starter with six years of team control. His durability and consistency stand out from the field of pitchers in the Twins organization.
18. Sonny Gray, RHP
2022 Ranking: NR
As things currently stand, Gray is the only pitcher in the organization who can credibly be looked at as a dependable frontline starter for 2023. That, in a nutshell, is why I had to include him in these rankings, albeit near the back end because the status of his contract (one year remaining at $12.5 million) and checkered bill of health this past season.
Gray has been around the block. He's made All-Star teams. He's started playoff games. He's been a featured rotation piece for several teams in a decade of big-league action, and he filled that role pretty well for the Twins last year.
It was a bummer that recurring hamstring issues limited Gray to just 24 starts and 120 innings, but he doesn't have the same kind of looming health-related questions as fellow veteran starters Mahle and Kenta Maeda. When on the mound, his performance was pretty much everything you'd want: a bulldog who throws strikes, keeping runners off the bases and batted balls in the park.
To whatever extent the Twins are successful in the coming season, it seems very likely that Gray will play a pivotal role.
17. Jorge Lopez, RHP
2022 Ranking: NR
As the 2022 season played out, the Twins recognized that in order to take the next step forward, they needed to buttress Jhoan Duran at the back of the bullpen with another dominating force. This revelation pushed the front office to do something they rarely do: invest big in a buy-high relief pitcher.
The Twins gave up four prospects at the deadline to acquire Baltimore's All-Star closer, who was experiencing an instant breakthrough in his transition to full-time reliever. Lopez shook off his previous struggles as a starter and transformed into a convincing lights-out bullpen ace for the O's.
His performance in Minnesota after the trade was far less inspiring, but unlike Mahle, there's no reason to believe anything is physically amiss for Lopez. His profile – heavy doses of whiffs and grounders with sinking upper-90s heat – is a pretty reliable formula for success. So long as he can get back to commanding his arsenal Lopez figures to be a key piece during his two remaining seasons of team control.
16. Alex Kirilloff, 1B/OF
2022 Ranking: 3
I'm an affirmed believe in Kirilloff. In five past iterations of these rankings, I've had him in the top five twice, including #2 in 2021 and #3 last year. I view his pedigree, IQ and ability as a hitter to be in a rarefied class.
He's flashed it in brief glimpses on the field, and last year AK hammered home his hitting prowess during a hilariously productive month at Triple-A (.385/.477/.725 in 28 games). But on the big-league field, Kirilloff's success has always been fleeting, with each setback tied to a clear culprit.
The wrist injury that sabotaged his elite swing, and has now required two surgeries, will define Kirilloff's career. He'll overcome it with help from this latest intervention, or join the long list of rising stars fell victim to the brutal physical toll of pro sports – forced to make do rather than make hay.
I'm bullish on Kirilloff overcoming it. If for no other reason than that the Twins as a franchise, and especially Alex Kirilloff as person, are overdue for a good break. The guy also lost a full year of development to Tommy John surgery, and despite it all, finds himself firmly planted in the majors at age 25. His talent is not in question.
A healthy and raking Kirilloff would be a radical difference-maker in the outlook for the 2023 Twins and beyond. Ranking him 16th on this list is an attempt to balance that simmering potential with the cold realities of the human body and its limits.
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verninski reacted to Cody Christie for an article, Looking Ahead to Joe Mauer's First Hall Of Fame BallotThere are a variety of ways to examine a player’s Cooperstown case. JAWS is one way to measure a player's Hall of Fame worthiness as it averages their career WAR with their seven-year peak WAR. Jay Jaffe developed it to compare players' Hall of Fame candidacy across different eras. Some positions have fewer players currently elected to the Hall of Fame, which can skew the averages. However, JAWS provides a solid baseline for comparing a player's candidacy.
Hold-Overs from 2023
Currently, voters are considering candidates for the 2023 voting cycle, and Ryan Thibodaux does a masterful job of tracking the publicly available ballots. Players must be listed on 75% of ballots submitted to be elected. Scott Rolen and Todd Helton are the two players tracking above 75%, but their support is not overwhelming. Rolen ranks as baseball's tenth-best third baseman, according to JAWS, while Helton ranks 15th among first basemen. Both players likely fall short of 75% as more ballots become available, resulting in both remaining on the ballot for the 2024 voting cycle, with some other strong candidates joining them.
Strong First-Ballot Considerations
In recent years, some strong players have fallen off the ballot, but Mauer will join the ballot with some other players that will be Hall of Famers. Adrian Beltre is a lock to be elected next year. His accolades are nearly endless, and he is the only player in big-league history with at least 3,000 hits and 450 home runs among players who appeared in at least 50% of their games at third base. According to JAWS, Beltre only ranks behind Mike Schmidt, Eddie Mathews, and Wade Boggs among third basemen. Beltre should be a nearly unanimous selection.
Chase Utley doesn't have the open and shut case like Beltre, but he is still among the all-time best second-basemen. He was one of his era's best players with some tremendous Phillies teams. His resume includes being a six-time All-Star and a four-time Silver Slugger with over 30 home runs and 100 RBI in multiple seasons. JAWS ranks him as baseball's 12th-best second baseman, with multiple players ranked behind him already inducted to Cooperstown. He won't be a unanimous selection, but he is a Hall of Fame-caliber player.
Catching Counterparts
For Mauer to be elected, many voters will compare him to other top catchers of his era. In recent years, Buster Posey and Yadier Molina have retired, and each has a strong case for the Hall of Fame. According to JAWS, Mauer (7th) ranks significantly higher than Posey (14th) and Molina (22nd). Molina's JAWS ranking has him behind catchers like Jason Kendall and Jorge Posada, who didn't get significant support in their HOF voting cycles. Like Mauer, Posey retired earlier than some of the all-time great catchers. However, he will likely garner enough support when he appears on the ballot for the first time in 2027.
Mauer's accolades were significant during the years he could stay behind the plate. He was a six-time All-Star and a five-time Silver Slugger while winning three Gold Gloves. He is the only catcher in big-league history to win three batting titles, and he finished in the top 10 for AL MVP in four seasons, including winning top honors in 2009. He is the only catcher who started his career after 1930 to top the .400 mark in OBP in six seasons. Concussions forced him to move out from behind the plate, but his case is still strong enough for induction.
Do you think Mauer will be a first-ballot induction to the Hall of Fame? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.
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verninski reacted to Sherry Cerny for an article, Too Many Outfielders, Another Perplexing Acquisition for the TwinsGetting rid of Gio Urshela was the let-down of the off-season for me. Urshela came in quietly, didn’t say much, but he let his defense and at-bats speak for themselves. He quickly became a fan favorite and had the whole stadium singing his walk up song’s chorus, “Take this world and give me GIO” with every at-bat. While Urshela had one more year of arbitration remaining, he was due for a big raise and earned it. Urshela hit .285/.338/.429 with 27 doubles and 13 home runs, Two of those homers were walk-offs. The Twins wanted to make as much room as they could to contend for shortstop, Carlos Correa, who ultimately went to the Giants.
Urshela’s absence will give Jose Miranda a well-deserved opportunity at third base. So the trade is not illogical. However, when Correa signed with the Giants, it made the Gio trade extremely frustrating; but now, the trade is frustrating and perplexing. On Friday, the Twins signed Joey Gallo to a one year, $11 million contract. Why would the Twins get rid of a steady contributor to the lineup and defense only to bring in a player who really struggled with the bat in 2022? Urshela may have saved them a few bucks in the chase for Correa, but he would have been the better investment.
Gallo certainly has talent, but he also spent 2022 between the Yankees and the Dodgers with a mortifyingly low batting average of .162 for the season. When he does hit the ball, he has power and sits in the 94th percentile for hard hit balls. If he is unable to produce at the plate, he can still provide value with his defensive play.
Seeing Double
More than likely Gallo would play one of the corners of the outfield positions alongside Byron Buxton, but if there is one thing the Twins already have - it’s a lot of left-handed hitting outfielders including Nick Gordon, Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach, Mark Contreras, and Matt Wallner The Twins also currently have another outfielder who plays good defense but finds his batting average near the Mendoza Line.
Max Kepler has been the subject of trade rumors during the offseason. Kepler struggled with the bat but was a finalist for AL Gold Glove in right field in 2022, a far cry from his breakout 2019 season. Kepler, like most of the 2022 roster, fought injuries and missed most of the season's final month.
Both Gallo and Kepler are often mentioned as it relates to the new shift rules coming in 2023. There is some thought that those two hitters in particular lost hits because of the shifting tendencies. Will it help? Can both be on the same roster?
More potential crazy trade options
It is possible that Gallo may be a replacement for Kepler if he is traded this offseason. Another option is making one the primary DH, though it is likely Luis Arraez will get a lot of DH plate appearances and Byron Buxton will get time there too. Maybe Minnesota can be a place where Gallo can bounce back and flourish.
With the rest of the outfield and much younger prospects like Trevor Larnach, Alex Kirilloff, Gilberto Celestino, Royce Lewis, Nick Gordon, Matt Wallner and Mark Contreras, any one (or multiple) of them could be a part of a package deal to get more starting pitching, or any pitching period.
But if the Twins don’t trade Kepler, there are two outfielders with similar stats, bats and love to hit into the gaps.
Once again, the Twins front office leaves fans scratching their heads with confusion, too many players in the outfield, no Gio, and there is still eight weeks until pitchers and catchers report.
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verninski reacted to Ted Schwerzler for an article, Twins May Benefit From a Change in Spending StrategyDerek Falvey’s hiring was largely celebrated through the lens of Cleveland’s pitching pipeline that he helped to develop. The hope was that the Twins could see a similar level of success. Thad Levine was brought along as the general manager. Thus far, we’ve seen a few instances of that but more needs to be done.
On the free agent front, we’ve watched the tandem spend to franchise-record payrolls over each of the past two seasons. It’s beyond nice to see Minnesota raising that water level, and for a team that should unquestionably remain near league average, the top has to continue going up. After being around $140 million for 2022, a push to $160 million seems like a reasonable request in 2023. A 17% increase makes sense for a team whose attendance was low in 2022 despite being in first place through most of August. The problem lies in how they get there.
Over the past few offseasons, the Twins have preached patience. Falvey and Levine have said all of the right things and then waited out the market. They did so when pivoting to Josh Donaldson after whiffing on Zack Wheeler. They did so in grabbing Lance Lynn and Logan Morrison as spring training kicked off. They even did so last year when shortstop options were gone, and yet Carlos Correa landed in their lap.
It now may be time they use the talent to dictate the budget.
In waiting for players to agree to their offers, it seems as though the front office is working backwards from an agreed upon amount (as all MLB teams do). This is understandable when ownership likely throws out a number they initially feel comfortable with budgeting. Although Jim Pohlad is no longer the ownership face of the Twins, there will likely not be a substantial financial change with Joe Pohlad in charge. That said, Falvey has always reiterated they have the full support of the front office, and are unafraid to have conversations about spending dollars where it makes sense.
That continues to fall on deaf ears when the Twins are left with no opportunities to push the pockets.
While Correa and Carlos Rodon are the only premier talents left on the market, Minnesota has a substantial amount of dollars yet to allocate simply to reach last season’s thresholds. By waiting to see if he accepts whatever they have presented, the Twins also are leaving the door open for another team to surpass what may not be their best effort.
Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts, and Jacob deGrom have all already signed. The likelihood a free agent is waiting to bleed out every last drop isn’t high (although that is what Scott Boras is known for any typically secures for his clients), but rather they are looking to have their match met. If the Twins operated from a place of talent or targets first, getting Correa done with a $35-40 million average annual value over whatever amount of years would then give them the baseline as to what they have left. Instead of waiting for the acceptance of what’s out there, talent worthy of dollars eventually becomes non-existent.
Minnesota wouldn’t be well positioned to go sign Correa and Rodon for a combined average annual value of $70 million, but if they did the roster could be filled out from that point. Maybe there’s conversations that follow and requests for additional funds to round out the roster, or a pitch is made that spending could help to increase interest that resulted in an attendance lower than anything we’ve seen since the Metrodome.
This is a strategy we have not seen this front office employ. Instead it has been wait and see, and while that worked once in landing a big fish like Correa, it has often left hefty pockets with only leftovers to spend it on. Pushing the budget up from the bottom, rather than subtracting from the top, could help to provide a more clear direction on what way the 26-man is constructed for Rocco Baldelli.
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verninski reacted to Ted Schwerzler for an article, Minnesota Twins Sign Catcher Christian VazquezIt wasn’t long ago that the Minnesota Twins employed a veteran alongside Ryan Jeffers in the form of Mitch Garver. When he was traded to the Texas Rangers last offseason, Derek Falvey targeted Gary Sanchez in a deal that sent Josh Donaldson and Ben Rortvedt to the Yankees. Sanchez wasn’t awful, but didn’t make the strides that would’ve warranted a return.
While the catching market looked thin behind All-Star Willson Contreras, the Twins keyed in all along on former Boston Red Sox and Houston Astros backstop Christian Vazquez. Having spent the entirety of his professional career in Boston up until 2022, Vazquez was dealt at the trade deadline with the Red Sox falling out of contention.
At the time he was dealt, Vazquez owned a 109 OPS+ for Boston and was a solid defender with a great clubhouse presence. The position is not one that is often seen as a strong offensive contributor, but he’s remained slightly above-average in each full season since 2019.
Coming off a World Series victory with the Houston Astros, Vazquez has worked with every type of pitcher including future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander. He’ll look to handle a Twins pitching staff headlined by the trio of Sonny Gray, Tyler Mahle, and Joe Ryan. Kenta Maeda will also start the season in the rotation, and it’s well documented that Minnesota would like to add another starter.
Behind the plate, Vazquez has been a solid defender for the majority of his career. He ranked 22nd in pop time last season per Statscast and generated an additional framing run for his efforts. His 47.8% strike rate ranks just below former Astros teammate Martin Maldonado.
In signing Vazquez, Minnesota puts Jeffers back on the smaller end of a split. Similar to the scenario he was in with Garver, it should be expected that Vazquez operates as the 1A option among the pair. The Twins front office still has plenty of belief in Jeffers’ bat, and he’s come a long way defensively since the draft. If he can stay healthy, there’s a good chance he gets significant work against lefties and can raise his overall numbers.
The front office made their first substantial move of the offseason in addressing the catcher situation. They’ll now refocus their efforts on Carlos Correa at shortstop and what they can find on the starting pitching market.
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verninski reacted to Seth Stohs for an article, Winter Meetings Day 1: What Did We Learn?The Winter Meetings are upon us. While lots of roster cleanup has happened since the World Series ended about a month ago, the offseason really begins with these meetings. To this point, a couple of the top free agent starting pitchers have signed huge deals while several veteran, fifth starter types have signed with new teams. One of the Big Four shortstops has signed.
Aaron Judge may or may not show up in San Diego on Tuesday after watching Tom Brady and the Buccaneers get a final-minute win in Tampa. Will he sign? Will he just meet with people? Could he possibly get 10 years and $400 million? Is that really possible?
Here are a few themes that I thought of on Day 1 of the Winter Meetings:
The Twins Aren't (and Shoudn't) Sign Carlos Rodon
The Twins clearly want to add a starting pitcher, a veteran who is as good or better than Sonny Gray and Tyler Mahle. Carlos Rodon fits that category and the Twins have certainly shown interest in the former White Sox southpaw. So why won't he sign with the Twins?
Why?
Let me count the ways. First, Jacob deGrom inexplicably got a five-year deal with the Rangers for $185 million despite missing more than half of his starts the past two seasons. That said, if he's healthy, he is baseball's best pitcher. On Sunday, news broke that Justin Verlander was signing with the Mets for two years and $86 million.
The Twins weren't going to be in on either of them. However, certainly in part due to those contracts and especially the length of deGrom's deal, Carlos Rodon is reported to be looking for six or more years and $30-35 million per season. He's right to ask for it, and he will likely get it. The fact that there are reportedly at least eight teams that have had conversations with Rodon's team (including the Twins), the number will jump up.
So are Jose Quintana and Andrew Heaney in play for the Twins? Maybe. It was reported on Monday night that Heaney has several three year deals on the table, so now he's looking for four years. You hate to see it, but maybe @Matt Braun was correct. Andrew Heaney may just be the best the Twins can do, and I personally don't think that's a bad thing.
We have written for months that the Twins should no longer be signing fifth starter types. And as we have seen this offseason, the money veteran fifth starters are getting is a bit silly. Mike Clevinger signed with the White Sox for $12 million guaranteed. Matthew Boyd somehow got $10 million to return to the Tigers. And over the weekend, former Twins right-hander Kyle Gibson got $10 million from the Orioles.
With all that in mind, I'll still say that the Twins would be wise to keep focusing on pitcher development. Instead of signing those guys (like Archer, Bundy, Happ, Shoemaker and many more before that), they should give guys like Louie Varland, Josh Winder, Simeon Woods Richardson, Cole Sands, Jordan Balazovic and others.
All-Rise...
So, how are the Twins going to go about getting a high-quality, ace-like starting pitcher? Well, Twins fans won't want to hear it, but first thing on Monday morning, Dan Hayes posted an article indicating that Luis Arraez's name has been discussed in trade talks for pitching.
Arraez is coming off of a(nother) breakout season. He was an All Star, won his first batting title, won a Silver Slugger and received MVP votes. But again, if we are talking about acquiring a pitcher who would jump right into the top spot in the Twins rotation, they're going to have to give up a painful amount.
Also of note, this is approximately the third straight offseason where the Twins have been rumored to be willing to trade Arraez, and as you are fully aware, they are yet to do it.
Catching Up...
The Twins are reportedly looking for a catcher who can share time with Ryan Jeffers who is currently the lone catcher on the Twins 40-man roster. Two tidbits on that search from Day 1 of the Winter Meetings include:
Ken Rosenthal reported that the Twins are one of six teams who that are "in on" Christian Vasquez. The long-time Red Sox backstop was traded to the Astros at the trade deadline and teamed with Martin Maldonado.
There were rumors circulating that A's catcher Sean Murphy might be traded early in the Winter Meetings. It hasn't happened yet. Frankly, it sounds like there are so many teams in on Murphy that the cost probably doesn't make any sense for the Twins.
Correa Stuff
The A-talker of the week for Twins fans is Carlos Correa. Will the Twins be able to bring him back? This is going to be interesting.
On Monday, the Phillies grabbed Trea Turner in a deal that will guarantee him $300 million over the next 11 seasons. Why is that noteworthy to Twins fans? Because most evaluators would put Turner and Correa very close to each other in terms of value so this is a good deal to kind of establish a market for Correa.
Correa is a year younger than Turner, so is it possible that he could get a 12 year deal, maybe even 13 years? And how much beyond $300 million will Scott Boras help Correa attain. In his press conference on Monday, manager Rocco Baldelli said that he believes that the Twins are well positioned to bring back Correa. He noted that he had a dinner with Correa (and also Xander Bogaerts and Carlos Rodon, all Boras clients) that was very nice.
data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAPABAP///wAAACH5BAEKAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAICRAEAOw== Darren Wolfson found out that the Twins are willing to offer 10-year deals and include multiple opt-outs. The Twins may have to get creative to make it work, but potentially adding the extra years also brings down the AAV (Average Annual Value).
There is a lot of competition. The Cubs are certainly interested, and they reportedly had a meeting with Correa on Monday. There were also indications that the Cubs might try to sign two of the Big Four (3 remaining) shortstops. After losing Turner, the Dodgers likely will want a shortstop. Would the Dodgers bring in Correa after their players and fans, made him the lead target of their post-2017 World Series angst? The Cardinals are rumored to be pursuing Dansby Swanson. If he signed elsewhere, would Atlanta really be willing to go with Vaughn Grissom at shortstop?
In reality, it seems to be that if the San Francisco Giants don't sign Aaron Judge, they'll throw all their eggs into the Correa basket. If Judge signs with the Yankees, I do believe that the Twins have at least a real opportunity to bring back Correa.
To be honest, this is all on Correa's timeline. He's the lead player available at shortstop and he can play the proverbial field, maybe even encouraged to do so by Boras. Do the Twins need to establish a deadline for Correa before moving on to Bogaerts or another option? Probably not since Boras Agency represents both.
And the Twins met with Carlos Correa according to a 2 am Jon Heyman tweet.
Draft Lottery
For the first time in baseball history, MLB will have a Draft Lottery and tonight at 7:30 on MLB Network, we will find out if the Twins will be able to move up in the draft. The NBA has done this for a long time.
The 18 teams that did not get into the playoffs will all have a chance to move up to the #1 spot in the draft. However, the worse the team's record, the less likely they get the top pick. In an attempt to have teams not intentionally tank for the worst record, the bottom three teams will each have a 16.5% chance of getting the top pick. The Twins odds of jumping to the #1 spot is just 0.9% Yes, I'm saying there is a chance! The lottery will determine the top six picks of the 2023 draft. Can the Twins jump into the Top 6, or will they stay at the #13 pick?
Keep up with Twins-related rumors at our Twins Rumors page here.
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verninski reacted to Parker Hageman for an article, What Happened to Jose Miranda's Swing During the 2022 Season? (Excerpt)Before we start disparaging Miranda’s late-season performance, let’s consider some of his strengths.
His 117 weighted runs created plus – a rate stat that takes into consideration park factors and current run environment of the league – was the seventh-best by a Minnesota Twins rookie and tied with notable legend Rod Carew.
From June through August, he led the team with 49 runs driven in and collected 74 hits (behind the eventual AL hit king, Luis Arraez). He was anointed the AL’s Rookie of the Month in July. He carried the Twins offense as best he could through a stretch in which the team was preparing for a late season nosediIn that time Miranda showed a keen ability to hit non-fastballs well. His .325 average against non-fastballs during that stretch was the 5th best in major league baseball. This is noteworthy considering how often rookie hitters struggle with spin: Over the last ten years, rookies have posted a .230/.270/.378 line against non-fastballs.
Unsurprisingly, pitchers adjusted their game plan to Miranda after he showed the propensity to wallop non-fastballs left in the strike zone. In August, teams started to shift to throwing him more sliders and locating them off the plate. Miranda began to swing more often and chased more frequently and so teams continued that trend throughout the rest of the season.
We have arrived at the point of the analysis where I normally post heat maps, charts, and video clips to support the trends and tendencies outlined above. I have done that and more but that content is reserved for Twins Daily Caretaker’s eyes only.
Fear not: You too can become a Caretaker for as low as $4/month. In addition to getting to read the rest of the meaty Miranda post, you also get free Twins Daily publications, Winter Meltdown tickets and other special recognition.
Finally, if you do jump into the TD Caretaker pool and read the rest of this article and are not completely satisfied, you can totally call me out publicly on Twitter – @HagemanParker -- and… I will likely mute you. I have a very fragile ego.
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verninski reacted to Nick Nelson for an article, How Will Kyle Farmer Fit in for the Twins?Acquired in exchange for minor-league pitcher Casey Legumina last week, Kyle Farmer has followed an interesting career path in terms of defensive development. Formerly a star high school baseball star and quarterback (he made a cameo in The Blind Side!), he played shortstop at the University of Georgia before being drafted as a catcher by Los Angeles in the 13th round in 2013.
Farmer had never played catcher, but the Dodgers and other teams liked him at the position because of his big frame and strong arm. He split time between there and at third while working his way up to the majors, where it took him four years to get his long-coveted chance at a return to shortstop.
"Farmer didn’t receive an opportunity to play shortstop regularly until he met with Reds manager David Bell in spring training before the 2020 season and told him that he could do it," wrote Bobby Nightingale for the Cincinnati Enquirer. Farmer has since made 234 starts over three seasons at the position, after totaling NINE – majors and minors – through his first seven years as a pro.
Farmer has made 81% of his 289 starts since 2020 at shortstop, impressing enough with the glove to keep getting nods there from Bell and Co. in Cincy, and now to be targeted by the Twins largely for his SS ability.
But there are other skills in Farmer's defensive toolkit that make the versatile infielder a player who fits under several different scenarios. Which is exactly what the front office liked about him.
Scenario A: Farmer is the interim starting shortstop until Royce Lewis or Brooks Lee is ready.
If the Twins believe that Lewis is on track to fully recover and take over as long-term starting shortstop midway through the season, then this will be the course of action. In fact, to be honest, this will very likely be the course of action unless they can sign one of the top four (highly coveted) shortstops on the market, which means it's probably just going to happen.
It's not the worst thing in the world! Depending on your view of Lewis. Farmer is far from a top-tier starter at shortstop but he's perfectly adequate, with a solid glove and a bit of pop at the plate.
He's really rough against right-handed pitching, which limits his appeal as a regular at any position, but the Twins could theoretically rotate in Jorge Polanco or Nick Gordon occasionally. If Lewis can return in May or June and pick up where he left off, then Farmer shifts into the role outlined in Scenario B at that point.
Meanwhile, the Twins have conserved tens of millions of dollars to spend elsewhere while maintaining flexibility to usher in Lewis or Lee as the shortstop of the future.
Scenario B: Farmer is a semi-regular at third base who fills in around the infield.
What if the Twins manage to land Carlos Correa, or another top shortstop via free agency or trade? In this case, Farmer can still fill a valuable role, albeit it with a less intensive workload. In this scenario, he fills a lesser version of the role Gio Urshela after Miranda came up in 2022, starting a couple times a week at third while Miranda rests, or slides to first base or DH.
Farmer is the steadier and more reliable glove at third base, and frankly the book is still out on Miranda's defense. There's great value in dependable veteran depth. Farmer can make himself useful on days where Miranda is at third by stepping in at short, second or first. He's even a viable DH option against southpaws thanks to his .837 career OPS vs. LHP.
Scenario C: Farmer is a super-utility backup who plugs in all around the field.
Let's say the Twins are more committed to Miranda at third than I think they are, or should be. And let's also say they find another superior player to start at shortstop. In this case, Farmer probably becomes more of a true utilityman, making starts all over the field to spell starters and backfill injuries.
"When the Reds acquired him from the Los Angeles Dodgers," notes Nightingale, "he was viewed as a utility guy with extra value as a third catcher." This could be the role Minnesota envisions for him, with his bat platooning around the field against lefties. In addition to shortstop, catcher, and third, Farmer has experience at second, first, and left field.
His viability at shortstop can make him the top backup at that position (they currently have none, with Jermaine Palacios gone), and he can also serve as third-string catcher, which figures to be a need since they're currently without even Caleb Hamilton-caliber secondary depth.
As mentioned, the ultimate role for Farmer in 2023 will be dictated by what the Twins do elsewhere. But unless they turn around and trade him a la Isiah Kiner-Falefa (who, incidentally, was a trade target to fill almost the exact same role), he'll almost certainly end up being used in one of these three capacities.
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verninski reacted to Cody Christie for an article, Twins Extension Candidate: Sonny GrayMinnesota has multiple items on its offseason checklist, including finding a shortstop, upgrading the offense, and adding to the bullpen. It's also the time of year when teams can approach players about long-term extensions. The Twins have kept their payroll clean for multiple years into the future, and now is the time to capitalize on the organization's flexibility.
2022 Recap: Minnesota traded for Sonny Gray and Francis Peguero during the last offseason by parting with their 2021 first-round pick, Chase Petty. At the time, it was easy to see the logic from the Twins' perspective. Petty was multiple years away from impacting the big-league level, and high school arms are never a guarantee. Gray was an established veteran with multiple years of team control. Minnesota's winning window was still open, and Gray helped solidify the top of the rotation.
Gray's first season in Minnesota didn't go perfectly, but he was near the top of the team in multiple pitching categories. In 24 starts, he posted a 3.08 ERA with a 1.29 WHIP and a 117-to-36 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Some minor injuries hampered him at different points and limited him to his fewest number of starts since 2016 outside of the COVID shortened campaign. His improved on field performance might be related to changes instituted after he joined the Twins organization.
For the first time in three seasons, Gray's four-seam fastball was his most utilized pitch. In 2021, he used his sinker nearly 30% of the time, while his curveball was his most utilized pitch in the shortened 2020 season. During the 2022 season, he utilized all three pitches over 24% of the time. Batters posted a wOBA above .300 when facing his four-seamer and sinker, but his curveball resulted in a .232 wOBA and a 25 Whiff%. All three of his top pitches resulted in a negative run value for opponents for the first time since 2019.
Current Contract: Gray's current contract was completed as part of his trade to the Reds from the Yankees. With Minnesota exercising the final option year, the contract's total value will be five years and $50.7 million. He has never reached free agency even though he has ten years in the big leagues as part of four organizations. He's made over $60 million in his career, and next off-season will be his first chance to hit the free agent market.
Contract Proposal: The 2023 season may add clarity for the Twins to decide if they want to try and extend Gray. Minnesota is likely fine paying the 33-year-old an annual salary of around $12 million if he continues to perform. Last winter, Steven Matz signed for four years and $44 million, while Yusei Kikuchi inked a three-year, $36 million deal. Both those pitchers are younger than Gray, but his track record is better. Gray and the Twins will have to find a middle ground that balances his age and the length of the contract.
As baseball moves further from the pandemic, player contracts will start rising again because of a revenue influx. Paying $12-14 million per season for an aging Gray isn't the worst proposition, especially as $100 million contracts are handed out to the top-tier starters. Gray also might be more willing to stay in Minnesota depending on what the club adds during the rest of this off-season. He also voiced some frustration last season about not going deeper into games, but starting pitcher usage continues to evolve.
Does a three-year, $40 million contract keep Gray in Minnesota, or will it cost more than that? How high would you be willing to go for a starter entering their mid-30s? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.
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verninski reacted to Theo Tollefson for an article, Twins Still Benefitting from the Pierzynski TradeA.J. Pierzynski is a complicated player in Twins' history. He played a big part in keeping the Twins here and was an all-star catcher on the 2002 team that won the division and beat the Moneyball Oakland A’s.
Over the course of his six seasons as a Twin, he spent half that time as the starting catcher, hitting .301 with 26 home runs and 193 runs batted in. Pierzynski’s promise to continue as an all-star catcher was there going into the 2003-2004 offseason, but the Twins had a local kid named Joe Mauer, that had much more to offer for the team’s future.
On November 14, 2003, the Twins took into favor the promise of Mauer and shipped Pierzynski to the San Francisco Giants for Joe Nathan, Francisco Liriano, and Boof Bonser. Pierzynski had a one-and-done year with the Giants and signed with the White Sox the next off-season. The Twins, however, are still reaping the benefits of acquiring these three pitchers as their acquisition of Liriano brought forth the opportunity to bring Jhoan Duran into the Twins organization.
Nathan needs no reminder of his impact on the Twins. Not only did he become the best closer in franchise history but also one of baseball's best relievers of the 2000s.
Bonser was a cult hero with the Twins as a rookie in 2006 making 18 starts and finding success at home in the Metrodome. The success of his rookie year was short-lived as it never carried over into the next two seasons. Bonser spent 2007 as the Twins fifth starter and split time between the rotation and bullpen in 2008.
Following an injury that kept him out all of the 2009 season. The Twins flipped Bonser to the Red Sox for minor-leaguer Chris Province who was out of baseball after one year between Double-A and Triple-A.
Then there is Liriano, the key figure of this trade and the leg of the trade that lives on today. Liriano was a staple to the Twins' rotation until the 2012 trade deadline. While he was struggling to be consistent at that time after his 2006 Tommy John surgery, the White Sox still called the Twins, seeing value in the lefty. In return for Liriano, the Twins received LHP Pedro Hernandez and infielder Eduardo Escobar.
Hernandez was around for the 2013 season with the Twins making 14 forgettable starts and accounting for a 6.83 ERA on the season. He went 8-3 over 16 starts for the Saints in 2015.
Escobar didn’t immediately become the player that most Twins fans remember him. Once he became an everyday player for the Twins in 2014, that’s when fans began to notice him as a utility infielder that could certainly help this team flourish.
Escobar’s time as a Twin was most memorable in the 2017 Wild Card season when he hit 21 home runs, drove in 73 runs, and posted a career-high (at the time) with a .758 OPS.
As Escobar built off his success in 2017 the next year, the Twins were not able to do so as a team seeing themselves as sellers during the 2018 trade deadline. On July 27, 2018, the Twins traded Escobar to the Arizona Diamondbacks and in return received a couple of outfield prospects and a pitcher named Duran.
Jhoan. Duran.
While Jhoan Duran worked his way through the minors as a starting pitcher. In 2022, Twins fans came to know Duran as their best rookie and best reliever. His time with the Twins looks to be certain until he is eligible for free agency in 2028. A lot can still happen between now and then though.
There is a possibility the Twins continue growing branches of this trade history lineage tree, in hopes a player of Duran, Escobar, Liriano, or Nathan’s caliber is received in return.
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verninski reacted to Ted Schwerzler for an article, Twins Tender Contracts to Seven Arbitration CandidatesAlthough the morning on Friday was spent unveiling the Minnesota Twins new uniforms, the evening was about exactly who would be playing in them. With a full 40-man roster, the Twins had seven arbitration-eligible candidates left to make decisions on.
Earlier in the afternoon, they avoided a decision (or, very clearly made their decision) on third baseman Gio Urshela when they sent him to the Los Angeles Angels for Single-A right-handed pitcher Alejandro Hidalgo. Urshela was set to make nearly $10 million this year, and with Jose Miranda looking like the Opening Day third basemen, there simply was not enough playing time to be had for that kind of investment.
Before Friday’s deadline, Danny Coulombe, Jake Cave, and Cody Stashak were all dealt with. Each was arbitration-eligible, currently have been left out of the Twins plans in 2023. Emilio Pagan’s outcome was left until the last minute, and although there was talk of a team-friendly extension, nothing ultimately came to fruition.
That left Tyler Mahle, Caleb Thielbar, Jorge Lopez, Luis Arraez, Jorge Alcala, and Chris Paddack, and Emilio Pagan as the only players yet outstanding. Earlier this week Nick Nelson went through the looming decisions for Derek Falvey and Thad Levine, ranking them in order. Urshela checked in at the top and ultimately was the choice for someone else. Of those remaining, only Paddack found himself with a bit of hand-wringing.
As Nick pointed out, it’s a wait-and-see scenario for the former San Diego Padres starter. When dealing Taylor Rogers and Brent Rooker to the Padres prior to Opening Day, Pagan was likely seen as more of a throw-in for the bullpen. Paddack, and his additional year of control, was the prize. After undergoing Tommy John surgery, a second one at that, it remains to be seen what type of pitcher returns, and when.
MLB Trade Rumors has Paddack projected at just under a $2.5 million deal for 2023, hardly a substantial amount of a good starter. The problem is that Minnesota will have a dead spot on their 40-man roster until spring training. They can and will place Paddack on the 60-day injured list at that point, but are limited in their construction by one roster spot until then.
Coming over from the Reds, Mahle was the Twins prize at the trade deadline and should be expected to be relied upon heavily in the rotation this season. New head trainer Nick Paparesta will look to get and keep him healthy, but Mahle has the makings of a breakout ace if he can get there. Like Mahle, Lopez was acquired at the deadline and left a Baltimore team that he represented as an All-Star closer during the Midsummer Classic.
Since returning to professional baseball, Thielbar has been among the most overlooked yet dominant lefties in the game. He’s not exciting, but it doesn’t matter when he’s getting the job done. Rocco Baldelli will hope to have Alcala be the arm he was undoubtedly counting on in the bullpen last season, but a full year off makes that a game of wait-and-see.
There was certainly questions as to whether Pagan would be retained after a tumultuous start to his Minnesota tenure. After working with Twins coaching a bit more as the season went on, Pagan was able to find success to the tune of a 2.16 ERA in his final 16 2/3 innings. The Twins front office did work to hammer out a multi-year deal but ultimately just agreed on avoiding a non-tender. The stuff has always profiled well as evidenced by a strong K/9. Presumably, the sides will stick it out for a few months into 2023 to see if there's a turnaround.
Rounding out the group was the easiest one of the bunch to call. Arraez is fresh off his first batting title, won a Silver Slugger award, was named an All-Star, and has his sights set on a Gold Glove next.
As a reminder, the arbitration deadline is one in which Minnesota had to decide if they would tender a player a contract or not. The sides will then exchange numbers. If the number is agreed to, that will be reported and updated below. If the sides remain apart on their valuations, a hearing could take place at a later date.
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verninski reacted to Seth Stohs for an article, Minnesota Adds Farmer to Infield MixThe Twins reached out to a team they have become quite familiar with in trade talks in the past year. Infielder Kyle Farmer was traded to the Twins from the Reds in exchange for right-hander Casey Legumina.
The 32-year-old infielder from the University of Georgia has been the Reds primary shortstop the past two seasons. In 2022, Farmer played in 145 games and hit .255/.315/.386 (.701) with 25 doubles and 14 home runs.
Farmer made his MLB debut back in 2017 with the Dodgers and played some for them again in 2018. He was part of a trade with Matt Kemp, Yasiel Puig and Alex Wood that sent Homer Bailey, Jeter Downs and Josiah Gray to the Dodgers in December of 2018.
In 2019, he played six defensive positions for the Reds. Since 2021, he has been the team's primary shortstop, and he is terrific defensively no matter where they put him. In 2021, he played in 121 games at shortstop and 10 or fewer games at the other infield spots and left field. In 2022, he played in 98 games at shortstop, 36 at third base, and two games at first base.
On the surface, Farmer seems to have a lot of similarities to a guy the team acquired in March, Isiah Kiner-Falefa. Both are solid shortstops who make all of the routine plays. Both have a solid, contact, line-drive type of swing that can generate some extra-base hits. However, they are guys that will hit closer to the bottom of the lineup.
In his first season of arbitration eligibility, he played the 2022 season for $3.155 million. He will make somewhere around $5 million in 2023 and will be under team control for 2024 as well. Essentially, he's going to cost about half of what Gio Urshela would have, but he's a guy you can feel comfortable with playing at shortstop while waiting for Carlos Correa to sign (you never know) or Royce Lewis to return, and at that point, he can fill a utility role. He also can provide depth at third base should Jose Miranda struggle with the glove.
Casey Legumina was the Twins' eighth-round draft pick in 2019 from Gonzaga. His numbers don't jump out, but his stuff is something that clearly will excite several pitching coaches. That is why he was added to the 40-man roster earlier this week.
In the past six or seven months, the Twins have sent Legumina, Spencer Steer, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Steve Hajjar, and Chase Petty to the Reds in exchange for Sonny Gray, Tyler Mahle, and now Kyle Farmer.
In reality, this move probably completely opens up third base for Spencer Steer to take and run with.
Do you Remember?
This highlight was all over the place in 2017. Farmer had a very nice major-league debut.
One Reds Fan's Perspective on the Trade
Kyle's Biggest Fan
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verninski reacted to Nick Nelson for an article, Reflecting on Miguel Sanó's Complicated Twins LegacyMiguel Sanó is one of the biggest young stars to ever come through the Minnesota Twins franchise – figuratively and literally. Both these qualities would ultimately come to play against him, in terms of expectation and perception.
A Rising Prodigy
His emergence as a youth in the Dominican Republic drew the attention of filmmakers, who produced a documentary detailing Sanó's courtship from major-league teams. Amid controversy swirling around his actual age, Minnesota was able to swoop in and sign him for a franchise-record $3.15 million bonus.
From there, Sanó began a rapid pro ascent. The third baseman flashed his immense slugging prowess in the low minors and quickly established himself as a premier prospect, ranking #4 overall on MLB.com's rankings after 2013.
Then, in spring of 2014, he tore the UCL in his right elbow, requiring Tommy John surgery and wiping out his age-21 season. It was sadly the beginning of a nonstop cycle of physical setbacks that would keep Sanó from ever settling into any sustained healthy groove in his career.
He came back in 2015 and quickly reached the majors. He was as advertised, slashing .269/.385/.531 as a 22-year-old against major-league pitching. Sanó consistently worked counts and capitalized, looking every bit the part of a premier cleanup man for years to come. He finished third in AL Rookie of the Year voting behind Carlos Correa and Francisco Lindor.
From Odd Fit to All-Star
The following year, Terry Ryan's effort to shoehorn both Sanó and Trevor Plouffe onto the roster led to the ill-advised experiment of shifting Sanó to right field. As a fast-growing hulk who seemed clearly destined to move down the defensive spectrum rather than up it, this assignment did not suit Sanó.
He struggled in 2016, at the plate and in the field, contributing to an all-around total system failure that prompted Ryan's dismissal. In 2017, the Twins rebounded, and Sanó was a driving force. Posting a .902 OPS with 21 homers and 62 RBIs in the first half, he made the All-Star team and finished runner-up to Aaron Judge in the Home Run Derby.
At age 24, Sanó was without question one of the true rising stars in Major League Baseball, his presence registering on the national scale. In all the talk of what a disappointment and bust he's been, people seem to forget this. For a while, it really was all coming together for him. And then...
The Leg Injury
About a month after his All-Star experience, Sanó suffered an injury that would permanently alter the course of his meteoric career. On August 18th, he fouled a ball hard into his left shin that did serious damage. Diagnosed as a stress reaction, it never really healed, and Sanó had a titanium rod inserted during the offseason, which prevented him from being able to condition and prepare as normal for the following year.
This cascading series of events contributed to a completely disastrous 2018 campaign, during which Minnesota took the drastic step of demoting a broken Sanó from the majors to Single-A, merely so he could go to the team's facility in Fort Myers and try to physically get right. He finished the season with a .199 average and .679 OPS in 71 MLB games.
Bomba Squad Revival
In 2019, we got one last burst of brilliance from Sanó, but it was a worthy final glimpse, offering everything we hoped he could be. Following a late start due to an offseason incident, he stepped in as a spiritual leader of the Bomba Squad, launching 34 homers in 105 games en route to a .934 OPS.
Reigniting his dominant offensive game, Sanó provided many of the season's most memorable highlights, including the grand slam in Cleveland that effectively sealed a division title.
By this point, Sanó was a 26-year-old with 118 career home runs and a 122 OPS+, coming off a monster campaign and seemingly ready to enter into a prodigious slugging prime. The sky was the limit, and Minnesota's front office attempted to capitalize with a three-year extension.
But from there, the sky started falling and it didn't stop.
Miguel's Mighty Collapse
It's easy to forget, but for most of the shortened 2020 season, Sanó actually looked the part. Through 42 games he was slashing .236/.321/.549 with 11 homers and 22 RBIs. Then he cratered in the final two weeks, going 4-for-42 with 22 strikeouts, and carried it over to the playoffs where he was 1-for-8.
Sanó's offensive production was solid but unspectacular in 2021, where he slashed .223/.312/.466 with poor defensive ratings at first base to produce a modest 0.9 fWAR. Nearly his entire 2022 season was wiped out by a knee injury, and now, here we are.
A Mixed, But Largely Misunderstood, Legacy
No one can deny that by the end of his tenure in Minnesota, Sanó was of little use. Framing his legacy within that narrow scope, however, tells a very incomplete and misleading story. Yet many people are oddly obsessed with doing so and always have been.
All the way back in 2017 I wrote about the implicit negativity bias that threatened to forever tarnish Sanó's perception in the eyes of fans. For whatever reason, there's always been a compulsion to myopically focus on the negatives of his game, even in the face of overwhelming positives and legitimately exhilarating moments on the field.
Ax-grinding columnists and pandering media snobs have been relentless in hurling lopsided critiques at the slugger even during his best moments, playing off the most base tropes: that because he's big and strikes out a lot, he must therefore be lazy and bad.
During his All-Star 2017, Jim Souhan penned a column for the Star Tribune titled "Pounds sneak up on injured Miguel Sano as Twins get back in race," directing blame for the stress reaction in his leg to his ... diet? At the beginning of Sanó's amazing 2019 season, a local outlet blasted out headlines about how Sanó was not "good at baseball," amidst an endless volley of derision, because – you guessed it – he was big and struck out a lot.
As I wrote in 2017, "Sano's historic power is enabled by his size and strength, his ferocious cuts – the very same things criticized by anyone who's looking for a grievance to air." Would it have been nice if he remained a bit more svelte and made more contact? Sure, but Sanó is who he is and was always destined to be: a massive human being who swings obscenely hard and generates ridiculous power.
By singling out the negative aspects of his size and swing, you miss out on the historically rare things they enabled him to do. Sanó ranks fifth among all Twins, ever, in slugging percentage. He has hit 162 career home runs before the age of 30.
Over the course of his career, he has consistently hit the ball harder than almost anyone in the world. Just look at all the red in those max/average exit velocity columns, indicating he was at or near the top percentile of all MLB hitters:
His tremendous raw power produced some of the most memorable moonshots of the Target Field era.
He hit the longest measured home run in the ballpark's history, a 496-foot tank off the White Sox in September of 2019. He nearly matched that distance at Fenway in 2021, where his 495-foot nuke off Nick Pivetta became the longest home run hit by anyone all season. The man put forth some of the most dazzling power-hitting highlights Major League Baseball has ever seen, which makes the pervasive compulsion to diminish him especially weird to me.
To be clear, Sanó also had some notable off-the-field issues, and was subject of multiple investigations. I don't begrudge anyone for disliking him based on these factors. In fact I can't say I care much for the person, based on all I know. But from a purely baseball vantage, the general conversation on Sanó has been extremely skewed, as any honest look at the facts and statistics will show.
Was he a disappointment? Certainly fair to say, especially in light of the expectations set by his own talent and his excellent early MLB output. But to say he was a bust, or bad at baseball, or "never lived up to expectations," is out of touch with reality.
Sanó was well on his way to fulfilling his promise, but in a twist uniquely on-brand for Minnesota sports, his ascent was halted and forever reversed just as he was rising to his peak. It's something to be lamented, not celebrated.
Especially if the ending of this story follows script and he goes elsewhere to recapture his peak slugging form.
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verninski reacted to Cody Christie for an article, Should the Twins Follow Atlanta's Approach to Contract Extensions?Baseball organizations tend to follow the trends set by other successful teams. In recent years, the Braves have solidified themselves as a model franchise, and other organizations will look to copy their winning model. The club's ability to sign players to long-term contracts is part of its success. Is this approach something the Twins should consider?
Earlier this week, the Braves announced they signed rookie starting pitcher Spencer Strider to an extension that buys out his arbitration seasons while giving the team two extra years of control. Michael Harris II, another Braves rookie, also signed an extension earlier this season that followed a similar structure. These aren't the only players the Braves have been able to lock up.
Besides Strider and Harris, Atlanta has also signed some of their other top players to long-term deals. Matt Olson and Austin Riley signed extensions during the 2022 season. Previously, the Braves had signed Ronald Acuna Jr. and Ozzie Albies to very friendly long-term deals. Atlanta is guaranteeing money to players beyond their arbitration years which has risk, but the Braves are hoping to see the players outperform the value they are paying.
The Braves and the Twins have different philosophies when creating their rosters. Atlanta has over $150 million in guaranteed money on the books for 2024, with nearly $100 million going out as far as 2028. Minnesota's front office likes to have payroll flexibility and tends to avoid long-term deals. Byron Buxton and Randy Dobnak are the only Twins players with options that extend beyond 2025. During the 2022 season, the Braves' payroll ranked in baseball's top 10, while the Twins ranked slightly below league average at 16th.
Atlanta's long-term investments come with inherited risk. Players can suffer catastrophic injuries and miss significant playing time. There is also no guarantee that these players will continue to develop at the big-league level. The Braves have already won a World Series, and they hope they can contend for multiple other titles over the next five years. Fans can forget poor play if World Series flags are flying forever. Atlanta can also hope that a few of these players produce at a superstar level to outweigh the dead money on the other contracts.
For the Twins to follow the Braves' strategy, the right players are needed to make these deals work out in the team's favor. Minnesota signed Jorge Polanco and Max Kepler to team-friendly extensions, and an argument can be made that both contracts worked out in the team's favor. Polanco's contract can max out at $48.25 million, and he has provided the Twins with nearly $80 million in value since 2019. Kepler's deal can be worth just over $42 million, and he has been worth $72.6 million. Those deals have worked out in Minnesota's favor, so who can the team target for extensions?
Health has been the biggest issue for young Twins players, including many of the team's recent top prospects like Alex Kirilloff, Royce Lewis, Matt Canterino, and Trevor Larnach. All these players might be extension candidates if health wasn't a question at the beginning of their big-league careers. Those aren't the only players who are extension candidates following the 2022 season.
Luis Arraez, Joe Ryan, Jhoan Duran, and Jose Miranda are some younger players the Twins could consider for a long-term extension. Arraez won his first batting title in 2022, and the Twins have him under team control for three more seasons. It will be harder to lock-up Arraez as he gets closer to free agency. Ryan, Duran, and Miranda are pre-arbitration eligible, so they are under team control through the 2027 season. The Twins can try and sign them early to gain extra years of team control.
Minnesota's current front office likes to clean the team's long-term books, which allows for more flexibility. However, other teams are locking up their young players to help the organization continue to win. Do you think the Twins front office needs to change strategies? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.
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verninski reacted to Steve Lein for an article, Twins AFL Report, Week 1: Martin Shines in First Week of ActionGame Results:
Monday, 10/3 | Peoria 5, Glendale 3
Tuesday, 10/4 | Glendale 11, Salt River 9
Wednesday, 10/5 | Glendale 5, Surprise 6
Thursday, 10/6 | Glendale 8, Peoria 9
Friday, 10/7 | Scottsdale 6, Glendale 10
Saturday, 10/8 | Glendale 13, Scottsdale 11
As a team, the Glendale Desert Dogs racked up a ton of runs on the week, averaging more than eight per game. They also gave up runs in bunches, however, and because of that finished an even 3-3 on the week.
Twins Daily's Seth Stohs also caught up with a few of the prospects before their seasons began, and you'll find some quotes below.
How did all of the Minnesota Twins prospects fare for the Desert Dogs in Week 1 of the 2022 AFL season?
IF Austin Martin: 4 games - 5-for-14, 6 R, 3 RBI, 3 BB, 1 K, 3 SB; .357/.526/.357 (.883 OPS) overall.
Martin played four games on the week, playing shortstop in three of them, and DH-ing in the other. He batted in the sixth spot in the lineup in each game and scored at least one run in all of them.
While he didn’t pick up any extra-base hits on the week, he was on base over half the time and active while there, stealing three bases and leading the team with six runs scored. As their primary shortstop on the week, he committed one throwing error, but otherwise made all the plays that came his way.
He ended the week with a big game on Saturday, finishing 3-for-5, with two runs scored, two RBI, and two stolen bases in Glendale’s 13-11 win over Scottsdale.
IF Edouard Julien: 4 games - 3-for-14, 3 R, 1 RBI, 5 BB, 5 K, 1 SB; .214/.421/.214 (.635 OPS) overall.
Julien also saw action in four games, splitting his time with two games at second base, and two as the designated hitter. In the first game of the week, he was in the cleanup spot but batted seventh in his three other contests.
Despite only three singles on the week, Julien did reach base in each game, and at least twice in three of his four games, as he continued to control the strike zone, drawing five walks total.
His best game of the week came in Thursday’s 9-8 loss to Peoria, in which he finished 1-for-2, scored a run, stole a base, and drew two walks.
C Alex Isola: 3 games - 1-for-10, 1 R, 2 RBI, 2 BB, 2 K; .100/.250/.100 (.350 OPS) overall.
Isola played in three games during the week, getting the start at first base in all of them and hitting at the bottom of the Desert Dogs' batting order.
He was responsible for the second RBI of the season in Monday’s opener, as he reached base via an error but his ball in play would have scored the run either way. He also picked up his only hit of the week in this one, a single in the ninth inning, and also reached base a third time thanks to another error. His second RBI of his season came in the same fashion as the first, as a ground ball to third allowed Austin Martin to score in Friday’s 10-6 win.
While he didn’t catch any games on the week, I do expect we’ll see a few of those as the season goes on, and it's one of the things he is looking forward to working on in the AFL. When asked what he wanted to work on, he told Seth, "I'm really trying to focus on my defense and show that I can catch and play first at a high level." He added, "Looking forward to the experience and competition of playing against some of the best players in the minor leagues."
He was also excited to be playing in the league, saying "I actually went (while in) high school and watched Francisco Lindor play here. It was for a tournament and we happened to go. I remember being very impressed. It's amazing to think I'm actually here now!"
RHP Jon Olsen: 1 start - 1 2/3 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 3 BB, 1 K; 21.60 ERA, 6.00 WHIP (1 2/3 IP) overall.
Olsen made the start in Friday’s 10-6 win over the Scottsdale Scorpions, but he needed some help from his offense as he wasn’t as sharp as he would like to be in his first game.
The first batter he faced doubled, then a pair of walks and singles led to a 3-0 lead for the Scorpions. Back out for the second inning, he allowed one run before loading the bases with two outs, putting an end to his outing after 1 2/3 innings. He threw 49 pitches, with 25 of them going for strikes (51%).
Thankfully, his offense let him off the hook, scoring ten runs over the next three innings and the bullpen held up for the win.
LHP Denny Bentley: 2 appearances - 3 IP, 0 H, 2 ER, 5 BB, 2 K; 6.00 ERA, 1.67 WHIP (3 IP) overall.
Bentley made two appearances on the week, picking up the win in Tuesday’s game against Salt River.
In that one, Bentley was the first reliever out of the bullpen after Glendale fell behind 6-1 after the first inning. He delivered two scoreless frames as his team stormed back, scoring eight runs in the fourth inning that put them in front before he was replaced. He allowed no hits, walked two, and struck out one.
In Friday’s 10-6 win over Scottsdale, Bentley came on for the fifth inning and despite making it through the frame and not allowing a hit, gave up two runs thanks to three walks and a couple of wild pitches.
He’ll look to keep it in the zone better in week two of the AFL season, as just 21 of his 52 pitches (40%) thus far have gone for strikes.
When asked what he looking forward to while playing in the AFL, Bentley answered "To play at Chase Field. Having never played in a major league stadium before, I can't wait to see what it's like being on the field at night and want to try to hit the pool out in right-center, LOL!"
He also has plenty he wants to work on, saying "I'm going to be working on commanding my off-speed in the zone at the higher levels. It's good to have [those pitches] that you can land in the zone early. Always working on control in the zone. Out of the bullpen is huge because you usually come into the game with runners on. I'm honored to represent the Twins and I'm really thankful to be here."
RHP Ryan Shreve: 2 appearances - 3 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 2 K; 3.00 ERA, 1.00 WHIP (3 IP) overall.
Shreve’s first appearance of the week came in the season opener, where he was the first reliever summoned for the fourth inning. He pitched two scoreless frames, allowing one hit and striking out one as he kept the game scoreless to that point. He needed just 17 pitches to finish those two innings, with 12 of them going for strikes (71%).
He came on for the sixth inning in Thursday’s 9-8 loss to Peoria, with the score 2-1 Javelinas at the time. He picked up a strikeout to start the frame, but a walk was followed by a double and a sac fly that made the score 3-1 before it was over. He threw 25 pitches in this one, with 13 of them going for strikes (52%).
Asked what he was looking forward to most in the AFL, Shreve responded "Competing on a big stage against high-level competition and continuing to learn from it." He also has a plan for his time there, saying "I'd like to continue developing my pitches and stay comfortable in my mechanics."
RHP Francis Peguero: 2 appearances - 2 1/3 IP, 0 H, 4 BB, 1 K; 0.00 ERA, 1.71 WHIP (2 1/3 IP) overall.
Like his other two reliever teammates, Peguero also made two appearances on the week, finishing the game in Wednesday’s 6-5 loss to Surprise, and pitching the sixth inning in Friday’s 10-6 win over Scottsdale.
He entered the game on Wednesday in the seventh inning after Surprise had extended their lead to 6-2, and got a lineout to end the threat. In the eighth, he walked the leadoff man and was called for a balk, but recovered to get a pair of groundouts and a flyout to give his team a chance. They almost accomplished that task with three runs in the top of the ninth but fell one short of tying the game.
In Friday’s contest, Peguero had to work to finish his lone inning, as he walked the bases loaded, but mixed in a strikeout and was able to escape without allowing a run.
Please feel free to ask questions and discuss the prospects playing in the AFL this week!
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verninski reacted to Theo Tollefson for an article, Tigers 5, Twins 2 Tigers Keep Twins Bats QuietBox Score
SP: Simeon Woods Richardson 5 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 3 K (91 pitches, 61 strikes (67 strike %))
Home Runs: None
Bottom 3 WPA: Gio Urshela -0.188, Nick Gordon -0.123, Simeon Woods Richardson -0.118
Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs)
Better Late Than Never for Woods Richardson's Debut
Sunday brought about the Major League debut for Simeon Woods Richardson, a long-awaited one for Twins fans over the dismal month of September.
Woods Richardson’s first inning of work in the majors was a mountain to climb as he walked the leadoff hitter who later came into score on a fielding error by Jose Miranda at first. Then a single by Miguel Cabrera advanced the runner to third and he scored on a wild pitch to Jonathan Schoop. Fortunately, that was the end of troubles for Woods Richardson in the first as he retired Schoop on a double play.
From the second inning on, Woods Richardson’s only trouble that followed as a solo home run he gave up to Tigers catcher Eric Haase in the third to put the Tigers up 3-0. He did also have base runners reach in the second and fourth that did not end up getting beyond first.
Woods Richardson’s final inning was his best retiring the minimum in the fifth. Woods Richardson allowed five base runners (three hits, two walks), two earned runs, and three strikeouts for his MLB debut. His top velocity on a pitch for the day was a strike at 92.6 MPH to start off Haase’s second at-bat of the game when he hit a home run.
Correa Hits But That’s it
As common as ever this season the Twins bats didn’t show up beyond one-hitter in the lineup. Today it was Carlos Correa who went 2-for-3 with an RBI walk.
The Twins' two runs were mounted on walks and a sacrifice fly from Nick Gordon in the fifth but couldn’t mount a bases-loaded opportunity to more runs.
Luis Arraez did not play on Sunday against a lefty in Joey Wentz in addition to the hamstring issues he has been facing of late. Aaron Judge was 0-for-2 with a walk through six innings on Sunday afternoon.
Strange Injuries Toward the End
Today the Twins used a reliever who never threw a pitch in the game. Trevor Megill was called in to pitch the seventh but was removed after throwing a warmup pitch that ended up spiking in the dirt and having the seams land into Ryan Jeffers neck.
Jeffers was okay and remained in the game but whatever Rocco Baldelli and the trainer saw from that spiked pitch. It was concerning enough to them to remove Megill from the game. Looked like an oblique or side injury.
What’s Next?
Twins go to Chicago’s Southside to end the season with a three-game series against the White Sox. Bailey Ober will be on the mound for the Twins Monday night against Johnny Cueto. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. CT. Postgame Interview
Bullpen Usage Sheet
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verninski reacted to Cody Christie for an article, Cleaning Up the Twins’ 40-Man Roster Will Take Some WorkMinnesota has 18 players on the injured list, with 11 players on the 60-day IL. Because of these injuries, the team currently has 50 players on the 40-man roster. Before the team makes any moves this winter, the 40-man roster must be cleaned up. Here are the moves the Twins will need to explore before the offseason begins.
Heading to Free Agency: Carlos Correa (player option), Gary Sanchez, Sandy Leon, Billy Hamilton, Michael Fulmer, Miguel Sano (club option), Chris Archer (club option), Dylan Bundy (club option)
Correa’s opt-out will be something fans eagerly watch, but all signs point to him opting out and looking for a significant free agent contract. Minnesota will need catching depth with Sanchez and Leon out of the picture, so the team may look to re-sign one of their veterans. Fulmer is an intriguing option if the club wants to add him to the bullpen mix for 2023. Based on their performances this season, it seems unlikely for the team to bring back Sano, Archer, or Bundy.
40-Man Roster: Down to 42 with these subtractions
Designate for Assignment: Jake Cave, Jermaine Palacios, Mark Contreras, Emilio Pagan (arbitration-eligible), Kyle Garlick, Danny Coulombe, Jhon Romero, Devin Smeltzer, Trevor Megill
There are some tough decisions in this group and some players many fans don’t want to see again. Cave was optioned off the 40-man roster earlier this season and stayed in the organization, so the Twins may try something similar this winter. Minnesota can attempt to trade Pagan for a low-level prospect, or the team might DFA him without receiving anything in return. Megill is also a tough call to make for the roster. Megill looked good at different points during the 2022 season, and certainly has some really good "stuff," but has struggled recently.
40-Man Roster: Down to 33 with these subtractions
Prospects to Add: Simeon Woods Richardson, Matt Canterino, Edouard Julien, Misael Urbina
Woods Richardson was added on Sunday before his MLB debut and is part of the team’s long-term pitching plans. Canterino will miss most of the 2023 season as he recovers from Tommy John surgery. However, he has one of the highest upsides of any prospect in the organization. Julien posted a .931 OPS at Double-A this season and has experience playing multiple defensive positions. According to MLB Pipeline, Urbina is a top-10 prospect in the Twins organization. He struggled in 2021 with a .585 OPS in Fort Myers, and his 2022 season started late because of visa issues. This year, he hit .247/.323/.407 (.730) with 26 extra-base hits in 60 games. Do the Twins still view him as highly as when he signed back in 2018?
40-Man Roster: Up to 37 with these additions
The Twins will have room to add a player in the Rule 5 Draft by making these moves. This roster flexibility also allows the team to add other players via free agency when the World Series ends. Will Minnesota keep any of the players mentioned above on the 40-man roster? Has Urbina done enough to earn a 40-man spot? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.
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verninski reacted to Nick Nelson for an article, Week in Review: Closing StatementsWeekly Snapshot: Mon, 9/26 through Sun, 10/2
***
Record Last Week: 3-3 (Overall: 77-82)
Run Differential Last Week: +9 (Overall: +10)
Standing: 3rd Place in AL Central (13.0 GB)
Last Week's Game Results:
Game 154 | MIN 4, CWS 0: Ober Dominates Sox with 10 Ks
Game 155 | MIN 8, CWS 4: Heart of the Order Comes Through
Game 156 | CWS 4, MIN 3: Late Defensive Lapse Costly in Loss
Game 157 | MIN 7, DET 0: Ryan Masterful in Another Shutout
Game 158 | DET 3, MIN 2: Missed Opportunities Mount In Motown
Game 159 | DET 5, MIN 2: Bats Quiet Again in SWR's Debut
NEWS & NOTES
Not many of the Twins' injured players are going to make it back this year. But to his credit, Ryan Jeffers did. His rehab and recovery from a fractured thumb to longer than expected, and the catcher position was an offensive black hole in his absence, but ultimately Jeffers did make it back for the end of the season and that means something.
Jeffers got plenty of action in his first week back, starting three times and appearing twice as a substitute. He went 3-for-15 with a triple and a couple of RBIs.
On Sunday, Jeffers was behind the plate for the major-league debut of pitching prospect Simeon Woods Richardson, who had just completed a stellar season in the minors between Double-A and Triple-A (107.1 IP, 2.77 ERA). Five days removed from his 22nd birthday, the right-hander got the nod for Minnesota's series finale in Detroit, with his hilariously long last name wrapping fully around the No. 78 on his newly minted Twins jersey.
It was an altogether strong outing for Woods Richardson, who allowed three runs (two earned) over five innings of work. He settled in pretty nicely after a shaky 29-pitch first inning and showed impressive poise – especially considering he became the youngest pitcher to appear in the majors this year (narrowly edging Ronny Henriquez who was optioned to make room for SWR).
HIGHLIGHTS
Joe Ryan ended a strong rookie campaign on a high note, with six innings of shutout ball against the Tigers on Friday night. In a season that brought his weaknesses to light – namely, a proneness to homers and vulnerability against high-caliber offenses – Ryan also cemented himself as a quality mid-rotation MLB starter.
The flip side to his struggles against postseason teams is that Ryan was sublime when facing lesser lineups. Against sub-.500 competition he went 10-2 with a 2.42 ERA and 10.3 K/9 rate. Let's not act like this doesn't have value. Succeeding to that extent against any major-league lineups is impressive, and in particular Ryan was hyper-effective versus divisional opponents, against whom he finished 10-0 with a 1.23 ERA.
He might not be the kind of starter you want toeing the rubber in a postseason game – not in his current state, which isn't to say he can't change that – but at the very least Ryan is proving to be a big regular-season asset. And currently, he is the club's sturdiest long-term asset in the rotation, coming off a mostly healthy and complete season.
The same unfortunately cannot be said for Bailey Ober, otherwise he'd be right there in the conversation with Ryan as the stablest building block. Ober's start against Chicago on Tuesday night was just his 10th here in a season that was torpedoed by a major groin injury. But at least the big righty is finishing strong and setting the foundation for a fuller campaign in 2023.
Kicking off the final home series at Target Field, Ober delivered the best performance of his young career, striking out 10 over 7 ⅓ shutout innings. The Sox legit had no chance against him as his late release point seemed to be stymying hitters more than ever.
When he's been able to take the mound this year, the 27-year-old has been arguably the team's most effective starter, posting a 3.18 ERA, 2.74 FIP and 47-to-10 K/BB ratio with just three home runs allowed in 51 innings. Something to carry forward into next season, even if he won't have much of a workload base to build off in 2023.
With Ryan and Ober finishing on high notes, Woods Richardson and Louie Varland getting late-season tastes of the majors, and Josh Winder making it back onto the field for a handful of starts, there are at least some positive youthful signs in a rotation closing out the year with its three top veterans on the injured list.
The Twins lineup, meanwhile, is also severely diminished as they play out these final games. But it was nice to see some of the remaining bats step up and carry the load over the past week. Standout performers included Jake Cave (7-for-19, three RBIs) and Matt Wallner (double, homer, and five RBIs).
Gio Urshela, who's capping off a solid season with a spectacular September, kept it rolling as the driving force in the offense, finishing the week 10-for-23 with some timely hits in big spots. Urshela has the fifth-best Win Probability Added on the team this year, and since the All-Star break he is second only to Carlos Correa.
While the decision of whether or not to tender Urshela a contract in his coming final season of arbitration was once up in the air, his stellar finish probably seals it, although it remains possible the Twins could trade him if there's interest.
LOWLIGHTS
Nick Gordon's breakthrough season at the plate has been a big positive for the Twins in a year full of negatives. The past week saw him batting third in the lineup several times, albeit failing to live up that billing with a 3-for-20 sample.
Regardless, Gordon's ability to hit is no longer really in question. His defensive versatility, on the other hand?
The 26-year-old has been pressed into more into more intensive action at second base with Jorge Polanco sidelined, and it hasn't gone very smoothly. Gordon's been very susceptible to misplays at the position, including a costly dropped pop-up on Thursday that led to the decisive run scoring in a 4-3 loss.
Looking ahead to next year, some have speculated that Gordon could be considered as a short-term plug at shortstop until Royce Lewis is ready to rejoin the fold. I don't think so. In fact, I genuinely wonder if what they Twins have seen from Gordon as an infielder late in this season will convince them that his future should exclusively be in the outfield.
TRENDING STORYLINE
At this point, the only remaining Twins storyline of intrigue is Luis Arraez's pursuit of his first batting title – or, as the rest of the baseball world might view it, his quest to deprive Aaron Judge of a triple crown.
The Twins helped Arraez's chances over the weekend by sitting him against both of Detroit's left-handed starters. This favorable usage helped the infielder bat .389 (7-for-18) on the week, concluding play on Sunday with a 4-point edge over Judge (.315 to .311) after the latter went 0-for-3 on Sunday.
LOOKING AHEAD
The Twins have three games remaining, all against right-handed starters, so presumably Arraez will be in there for the entire series against the White Sox, looking to make a closing statement of his own and wrap up the 2022 AL batting title. Judge and the Yankees wrap their season in Texas with three games against the Rangers.
MONDAY, 10/3: TWINS @ WHITE SOX – RHP Bailey Ober v. RHP Johnny Cueto
TUESDAY, 10/4: TWINS @ WHITE SOX – RHP Josh Winder v. RHP Lucas Giolito
WEDNESDAY, 10/5: TWINS @ WHITE SOX – RHP Louie Varland v. RHP Davis Martin
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verninski reacted to Cody Christie for an article, Austin Martin is Finishing a Redeeming SeptemberHitting was never supposed to be a problem for Austin Martin. He was widely considered the top college bat in the 2020 MLB Draft after finishing a tremendous three years at Vanderbilt. In three seasons, he hit .368/.474/.532 (1.007) with 43 steals and more walks (85) than strikeouts (82). During his sophomore season, he posted a 1.091 OPS with 33 extra-base hits in 65 games as he helped Vanderbilt win the 2019 College World Series.
Toronto had to be excited when Martin fell to them with the fifth overall pick in 2020, which will be an intriguing draft to examine in future years. The pandemic wiped out college and high school seasons, so it became challenging to scout players without any games to watch. Martin received the draft’s second-highest signing bonus, but his professional debut had to wait until 2021.
All three national prospect rankings put Martin in their top-25 prospects entering the 2021 season. The Blue Jays were aggressive with him by sending him directly to Double-A. In his first 56 games, he hit .281/.424/.383 (.807) with 14 extra-base hits and a 53-to-37 strikeout to walk ratio. Minnesota acquired him at the trade deadline as part of the Jose Berrios deal. His OPS dropped to .779, but he collected 11 extra-base hits in 37 games. His prospect stock dropped a little, but he’d still be considered one of baseball’s top-55 prospects entering the 2022 campaign.
Minnesota sent Martin back to Double-A for the 2022 season, hoping his performance would warrant a move up the organizational ladder. For various reasons, Martin’s performance has struggled in 2022, with a wrist injury weakening his power. His OPS dropped from .796 in 2021 to .685 in 92 games this season. He suffered a wrist injury while diving for a ball at the beginning of July, but he has returned strongly to end the season.
In September, Martin compiled his best numbers of the season as he hit .277/.392/.431 (.823). His OPS was over 100 points higher than any other month in the season, and two of his three home runs came this month. Martin has been over a year younger than the competition at his level, and over 78% of his at-bats have come against older pitchers. After a bleak season, it helps to end the season on a positive note.
Martin will get the opportunity to build off his strong September by representing the Twins in the Arizona Fall League. He will be one of the team’s top prospects participating in the AFL this season, and it can be an important opportunity for players closing in on the big leagues. Last season, Matt Wallner headed to the AFL and used it as a springboard for a tremendous 2022 season. Wallner was recently named the Twins Daily Minor League Player of the Year.
Next season, Martin will begin the season as a 24-year-old with over 180 games played at the Double-A level. He is no longer considered a top-100 prospect, and many have dropped him out of the top-10 prospects in the Twins organization. He has plenty to prove in 2023, and the Twins hope this September is the beginning of him getting back on track.
What do you think Martin can prove in the AFL? Is this September a positive sign for the future? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.
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verninski reacted to Jamie Cameron for an article, Twins 4, White Sox 0: Ober Dominates as Wallner Slugs First Target Field Home RunBox Score
Starting Pitcher: Bailey Ober 7.1 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 10 K
Homeruns: Matt Wallner (2)
Top 3 WPA: Bailey Ober .348, Jose Miranda .169, Jake Cave .029
Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs)
Here’s how the Twins lined up to face the White Sox in the opening game of a three game series at Target Field on Tuesday night, their final home series of the 2022 season.
Ober and Out
With nine games remaining at the end of a 2022 season that has come to a sputtering halt, the Twins are left to look for positives. Bailey Ober stepped up in a big way on Tuesday night. The tall right-hander dominated a feeble White Sox lineup. Ober worked quickly, efficiently, and had pinpoint control. Over seven one-hit innings, he threw 73% strikes, struck out ten hitters, and induced twenty swings and misses.
Ober is one of many Twins whose season has been derailed by injuries. Furthermore, Ober’s timeline for return consistently shifted throughout the season as he spent significant portions of the season on the IL with groin problems. He reminded Twins fans what he is capable of on Tuesday and adds his name is a stable of possible starting pitching options for 2023, albeit one in which almost every name is also accompanied by health-related questions.
Plenty of Offense, Just Enough Runs
The Twins had plenty of traffic on the base paths on Tuesday night, with few early returns. Three consecutive singles from Jose Miranda, Gio Urshela, and Jake Cave gave Minnesota a one run lead in the bottom of the second inning. Doubles from Luis Arraez and Miranda added another run to the lead in the bottom of the third. The Twins had tallied nine hits, producing just two runs, when Matt Wallner stepped to the plate in the bottom of the sixth inning. Wallner hit his second home run of the season and first at Target Field. The moon shoot cleared the right field wall, giving Twins fans another exciting glimpse of a promising 2023 season storyline.
After surrendering his second hit in the top of the eighth inning, Ober was relieved by Griffin Jax, who made short work of the rest of the inning, striking out both hitters he faced on just ten pitches. Jhoan Duran closed the game for the Twins in the ninth inning, striking out two and bringing the total tally to 14 on the night for the Twins pitching staff. On a brisk, 56 degree night at Target Field, seeing the Twins put together an efficient, excellent performance in all phases of the game will be heartening for fans enjoying the dying embers of the 2022 season.
Bullpen Usage Chart
FRI SAT SUN MON TUES TOT Henriquez 0 0 68 0 0 68 Megill 28 0 32 0 0 60 Duran 0 24 0 0 15 39 Jax 0 27 0 0 10 37 Thielbar 10 13 0 0 0 23 Pagán 23 0 0 0 0 23 López 0 11 0 0 0 11 Fulmer 0 9 0 0 0 9 Moran 0 0 6 0 0 6 Next Up
On Wednesday, the Twins will continue their series against the White Sox. Josh Winder starts for Minnesota, against Johnny Cueto for the White Sox. First pitch is a 6:40 CT.
Postgame Interviews
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verninski reacted to Nick Nelson for an article, Week in Review: The Walking DeadWeekly Snapshot: Mon, 9/19 through Sun, 9/25
***
Record Last Week: 1-6 (Overall: 74-79)
Run Differential Last Week: -19 (Overall: -1)
Standing: 3rd Place in AL Central (12.0 GB)
Last Week's Game Results:
Game 147 | CLE 11, MIN 4: Guardians Humiliate Twins in Final Match-up
Game 148 | KC 5, MIN 4: Bundy Bad, Bats Fizzle After Strong Start
Game 149 | KC 5, MIN 2: Offense Lifeless Outside of Wallner's 2 RBIs
Game 150 | KC 4, MIN 1: Lifeless Twins Swept by Lowly Royals
Game 151 | LAA 4, MIN 2: Twins Can't Overcome Ohtani, Fall to Angels
Game 152 | MIN 8, LAA 4: Losing Streak Snapped Behind Bats, Bullpen
Game 153 | LAA 10, MiN 3: Halos Pull Away Late to Take Series
NEWS & NOTES
With contention now firmly out of the picture following a dozen-game slide in the standings over the past three weeks – from tied for first on September 4th to 12 games out on September 25th – the Twins are starting to pack it in and make preparations for the offseason and beyond. Step 1: taking action on Byron Buxton's broken-down body.
The team announced on Friday that Buxton will undergo arthroscopic surgery to clean up scar tissue in the right knee that's bothered him for nearly the entire season. The hope is that this procedure, along with several months to rest his ailing hip, will put Buxton in a solid place physically heading into next spring, so he can take another shot at getting through a full season.
He finishes 2022 with 92 games played and 382 plate appearances, both the second-highest totals of his career. He also posted 4+ Wins Above Replacement for a second straight year. Another solid yet ultimately unfulfilling campaign.
Elsewhere...
Sonny Gray went on the injured list with a hamstring strain, which drained his velocity in a brutal Monday start against Cleveland where he allowed four runs in two innings. Very reminiscent to the final start in Chicago from Tyler Mahle (also now confirmed out for the season). Louie Varland was recalled to join the rotation again, probably for the rest of the year. Trevor Megill was activated from COVID IL. Drew Strotman, designated for assignment last weekend, was claimed off waivers by the Texas Rangers. Dereck Rodriguez was outrighted to the Saints. Aaron Sanchez was also DFA'ed. HIGHLIGHTS
The only real highlight of this miserable stretch of play was Matt Wallner, who is taking advantage of his late-season audition by showing what he can do with the stick. The 24-year-old found himself in the starting lineup for five of six games and delivered four hits with two doubles, two RBIs, and two walks.
On Tuesday in Kansas City, Wallner provided the totality of Minnesota's meager offensive output, driving in two runs with three hits on the way to a 5-2 loss. He's making hard contact and showing the pop that helped produce 27 homers and a .542 slugging percentage between Double-A and Triple-A this season.
An especially impressive aspect of Wallner's initial play was how he was keeping the whiffs in check, with only eight strikeouts in his first seven games, but on Friday and Saturday against Los Angeles he went 0-for-7 with six Ks. Growing pains for the young lefty slugger – but that's what these meaningless final games are for.
LOWLIGHTS
No, the pitching has not been especially good. Losing Gray from an already depleted staff only further diminishes a group that's been doing little to help the cause. Jorge López's complete meltdown on Monday (0.2 IP, 4 H, 2 BB, 4 ER) was beyond discouraging and concerning.
But let's be real: the offense is primarily responsible for dragging this team into a humiliating abyss. They scored more than four runs in a game just once all all week, and have done so five times in the entire month of September.
Yeah, it hurts to be forced to use Jermaine Palacios – who is 0-for-33 with 15 strikeouts in the month of September – semi-regularly. And obviously it hurts to be without the likes of Byron Buxton and Jorge Polanco. But there are also key players who had been productive and now are just fading away completely.
José Miranda went 6-for-25, all of his hits singles, with no RBIs. He is slashing just .261/.328/.384 with five homers in 52 games since the start of August. When Miranda first arrived on the scene, he was an ignitor and catalyst for the Twins offense, mashing homers with frequency and driving in runs reliably. That has since gone completely amiss, though he's continued to bat third or fourth almost everyday (and leadoff on Sunday!).
Another underrated culprit in the team's demise, unfortunately: Luis Arraez. His once-firm grasp on the AL batting race has given way and he's now fallen to third, paving way for an Aaron Judge triple crown bid. The hits just continue to not fall for Arraez, who has only two multi-hit games in his past 12 and is batting .237/.256/.237 during this span.
That can be how it goes when you don't have any power – his hard-hit rate ranks in the bottom 7% of all MLB hitters – and, as of late, no patience. Arraez has drawn only one walk in the entire month of September, where he has a .302 on-base percentage.
His All-Star first half has been followed by a sub-mediocre second half – since the break, Arraez has been worth 0.3 fWAR in 54 games. Although, again, it should be noted that he's clearly playing nowhere near 100% as a hamstring issue hobbles him continuously. He has the second-worst WPA on the team since the start of August. (Miranda is fourth-worst, with Palacios and Mark Contreras occupying the other two spots. Two of those names you'd probably expect.)
TRENDING STORYLINE
With several players in the late stages of rehab here as this lost season draws to a close, the team must try to balance the value of getting them back on the field to finish on a positive note, versus the value of simply shutting them down and letting them get early starts on their offseasons.
They've already chosen the latter path with Buxton and it seems they're inclined to take the same route with Polanco, although he hasn't officially been ruled out. Max Kepler, Ryan Jeffers and Trevor Larnach all have a decent chance to return in the coming week, for whatever that is worth.
LOOKING AHEAD
There is not an ounce of competitive drama left to extract from this season – even the White Sox, who Twins might have been motivated to spoil in six remaining match-ups, have already taken themselves out of contention.
With that said, this is our last full week of Twins baseball until 2023, so try to enjoy these remaining moments. I know I'll be getting out to Target Field one last time for during the final home series against the White Sox, which will feature a trio of internally developed Twins starters who figure to be key parts of next year's plan.
TUESDAY, 9/27: WHITE SOX @ TWINS – RHP Lance Lynn v. RHP Bailey Ober
WEDNESDAY, 9/28: WHITE SOX @ TWINS – RHP Johnny Cueto v. RHP Josh Winder
THURSDAY, 9/29: WHITE SOX @ TWINS – RHP Lucas Giolito vs RHP Louie Varland
FRIDAY, 9/30: TWINS @ TIGERS – RHP Joe Ryan v. RHP Drew Hutchison
SATURDAY, 10/1: TWINS @ TIGERS – RHP Dylan Bundy v. LHP Tyler Alexander
SUNDAY, 10/2: TWINS @ TIGERS – RHP Bailey Ober v. LHP Joey Wentz
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verninski reacted to Thiéres Rabelo for an article, Angels 4, Twins 2: Missed Opportunities Prove Costly Against OhtaniBox Score
Starting Pitcher: Louie Varland, 5 2/3 IP, 7H, 3R, 3ER, 1BB, 3K (88 pitches, 58 strikes, 65.9%)
Home Runs: none
Bottom 3 WPA: Gilberto Celestino (-.203), Matt Wallner (-.161), Jermaine Palacios (-.140)
Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs)
Varland and Ohtani both debut at Target Field, both pitch into the sixth
Two teams with disappointing seasons and miles away from playoff contention met on a cold, somewhat rainy Friday night at Target Field. Everything pointed out to this being one of the most irrelevant games for both fanbases to attend or watch from home, except for one thing: the pitching duel. After two starts on the road, St. Paul native and recently appointed Twins Daily’s minor league starting pitcher of the year, Louie Varland, finally made his Target Field debut. Furthermore, Shohei Ohtani, one of our generation’s greatest talents, was set to toe the rubber for the Angels, also representing his first-ever start at Target Field.
Varland was off to a hot start, tossing a 1-2-3 top of the first on only seven pitches, retiring Ohtani himself with a groundout on the first pitch. Then, Shohei took to the mound for what might’ve been the coldest temperature he’s ever experienced at first pitch in his MLB career. To make matters even worse for him, the rain came down during his first trip to the mound and almost caused him some serious damage.
After Ohtani retired leadoff hitter Luis Arraez, the rain got stronger, and he started to struggle with his command. So much so that he lost the next three batters, giving up walks to Jose Miranda and Gio Urshela and hitting Nick Gordon in the ankle. Then, Jake Cave grounded into an inning-ending double play which, at first, kept this a scoreless game. But after review, it was noticed that Miranda crossed home plate before third baseman Matt Duffy could glove the throw by second baseman Livan Soto, scoring the game’s first run.
But that lead didn’t last long. Varland gave up a leadoff home run to Taylor Ward in the top of the second that tied the game. Then, in the third inning, after losing the first two batters, Varland gave up an RBI single to Mike Trout, which scored Max Stassi from third. Ohtani couldn’t get anything going in his second at-bat of the game, but, back on the mound, he really got into the zone. He pitched a perfect bottom of the third, and after giving up a leadoff walk in the fourth – matching his season-high four walks in a game – he went on to strike out five Twins batters in a row. Minnesota didn’t have a hit until the fifth when Arráez hit a two-out grounder to left.
Despite allowing a few hits, Varland managed to deliver a couple of scoreless frames after the Angels scored their second run. But for the second time on the night, Ward took him deep to lead off an inning. The Angels’ cleanup hitter crushed another fastball up the middle, basically at the same location as his first home run, making it 3-1 Angels in the top of the sixth. Varland retired the next two batters before Rocco Baldelli brought in Trevor Megill to get the inning’s final out.
Twins get one run back but waste a bases-loaded, nobody-out situation
After four dominant innings from Ohtani, the Twins’ offense finally made him sweat and ended the night for him. Gordon led off the bottom of the sixth with a single, then Urshela drew his third walk of the night. As the Angels bullpen started to warm up, Cave singled to center, and Gordon scored from second, cutting the Angels’ lead in half.
Ohtani was allowed to face another batter in Gary Sanchez, and the Twins’ catcher also drew a walk, loading the bases for the second time on the night for Minnesota – this time with no outs. Ball four was rightfully protested as the Twins caught a huge break, but it ended up going to waste anyway. With reliever Aaron Loup pitching, Matt Wallner and Gilberto Celestino couldn’t capitalize. Loup escaped with a strikeout and an inning-ending double play.
Minnesota failed to add on, but Los Angeles didn’t. Megill got two outs in the seventh, but not before he had also allowed two men to reach on a couple of walks. The latter came after a hard-fought, ten-pitch at-bat against Trout that brought Ohtani to the plate with two men on instead of ending the inning. Baldelli decided to bring Caleb Thielbar to face a still-hitless Ohtani, but it didn’t pan out. The superstar hit a ground ball to center and brought Soto home, making it 4-2 Angels. Overall, Minnesota’s offense went 2-for-13 against the Angels bullpen and didn’t come even close to sparkling a late rally.
Postgame interview
What’s Next?
Game two of the series is scheduled for this Saturday, with first pitch at 6:10 pm CDT. The Twins will bring Joe Ryan (3.61 ERA) to the mound, whereas Los Angeles will start lefty Reid Detmers (3.71 ERA).
Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet
MON TUE WED THU FRI TOT Henriquez 73 0 0 0 0 73 Megill 0 17 0 0 28 45 Pagán 15 0 0 0 23 38 López 34 0 0 0 0 34 Thielbar 0 23 0 0 10 33 Moran 0 0 0 31 0 31 Fulmer 0 23 0 0 0 23 Jax 0 4 0 0 0 4 Duran 0 0 0 0 0 0 -
verninski reacted to Cody Christie for an article, Lew Ford Can't Say Goodbye to BaseballIf you listen closely, you can still hear the chants of "LEEEEWWWW" raining down from the Metrodome seats. Lew Ford left his mark on the Twins franchise in parts of four seasons, and his mark on the baseball world continues to this day. Let's look back at Ford's Twins tenure and what he has done since leaving the Twins.
The Boston Red Sox drafted Ford in the 12th round of the 1999 MLB Draft out of Dallas Baptist University. His Red Sox's tenure was short-lived as the Twins traded for Ford in September 2000 for reliever Hector Carrasco. Ford spent the next three seasons in the upper levels of the Twins farm system before debuting in 2003.
Minnesota was riding high entering the 2003 season after making it to the ALCS in 2002. Once on the brink of contraction, the Twins needed players like Ford to keep the franchise moving in a positive direction. As a 26-year-old rookie, Ford quickly made his mark on the Twins roster. In 34 games, he hit .329/.402/.575 (.978) with 11 extra-base hits and 15 RBI. Even in limited action, he helped the Twins win the AL Central for the second-consecutive season.
Ford's best season in a Twins uniform came in 2004 when he compiled 4.5 WAR as an everyday outfielder. To put that into perspective, no one on the 2022 Twins has accumulated that high of WAR. For the season, Ford hit .299/.381/.446 (.827) with 31 doubles, 15 home runs, and 20 steals. He even showed up in the playoffs by going 3-for-11 with a double, two RBI, and a stolen base. At the season's end, he received down-ballot votes for the AL MVP.
Over the next three seasons with the Twins, Ford averaged over 100 games per year, but his offensive numbers started to decline. He got on base over 32% of the time, but his OPS+ dipped to 80, and he looked past his prime. From there, he bounced around from different organizations and even made it back to the big leagues with the Orioles in 2012 as a 35-year-old. However, his natural baseball home was with the Long Island Ducks of the Atlantic League.
In August, Ford turned 46 years old and was still wearing a uniform this season. The 2022 season was Ford's 12th season with the Ducks and his eighth in a role as player/coach. In his time with the Ducks, he has been a three-time All-Star (2014, 2016, 2018) and named the Atlantic League's Player of the Year in 2014. As a 41-year-old, he competed in the Atlantic League's Home Run Derby. He leads the Ducks in many career accolades, and he continued to play well for the team this season.
During the 2022 season, Ford played 32 games and hit .270/.293/.429 (.722) with five doubles and five home runs. He became the first player in franchise history to record 1,000 hits in a Ducks uniform. He reached the milestone with an RBI single in the Ducks' 8-2 win over the Charleston Dirty Birds on August 28th. Ford also became just the fourth player in Atlantic League history to reach 1,000 hits, joining former Ducks infielders Bryant Nelson and Ray Navarrete as well as former Somerset Patriots infielder Jeff Nettles.
Last fall, Ford told MLB.com that his favorite memories with the club have been tied to the team's success. "We have won three championships in this league," Ford said. "We broke the record for wins in 2019 and won the championship. That stands out. The winning stands out. All those championships stand out."
Ford's impact on baseball will be felt long after he eventually steps away from the game. For now, he refuses to say goodbye, and chants of "LEEEEWWWW" will continue to follow him each step of the way.
What are your memories of Ford? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.
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verninski reacted to Seth Stohs for an article, Twins 3, Guardians 0: Ryan Dominates Guardians for Much-Needed WinBox Score
SP: Joe Ryan: 7 2/3 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 5 K (95 pitches, 64 strikes (67.4%)
Home Runs: Jake Cave (5)
Top 3 WPA: Joe Ryan (0.559), Carlos Correa (0.087), Luis Arraez (0.078)
Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs)
Joe Ryan Does it Again, Well, Not Quite That, but…
Earlier in the week, Twins starter Joe Ryan threw seven no-hit innings against the Kansas City Royals at Target Field. While disappointed, it was easy to understand why he was removed after the seventh inning, and it was said often. His next start would be his biggest start of the season.
Well, that may or may not still be true - based on the Twins losing the first three games of this series, and being seven games back coming into the day - it was a very important game for the Twins. Saturday was a long day that ended in a double-header sweep at the hands of the Guardians. The Twins had lost eight straight games to Cleveland in key September games. The Twins needed a big outing from Ryan, and he gave it to the Twins.
After Saturday, it was important for Ryan to start out well. He had a one-two-three first inning that included a strikeout of Twins Killer Amed Rosario and a Jose Ramirez pop-out. He got two groundouts and a strikeout in the second inning, which does mean that he had nine straight no-hit innings. He walked a guy in the third inning, but no hits again. The fourth inning was again perfect, including a ground out by Rosario and a strikeout of Ramirez. His no-hit streak ended with one out in the bottom of the fifth frame when Tyler Freeman singled. He gave up two more hits and walked two batters, but he even recorded two outs in the eighth inning. After a Myles Straw single, lefty Jovani Moran came on and got Andrew Gimenez to fly out to end the inning and officially close the book on Joe Ryan’s fantastic outing.
Defense Comes Through
Any great pitching performance is likely to include some help from his defense.
In the fifth inning, there were runners on first and second with just one out, but Austin Hedges grounded into a double play.
Then in the sixth inning, Straw led off with a double before Gimenez was hit by a pitch. Runners on first and second and nobody out. Amed Rosario stepped to the plate and grounded into a double play. Straw remained at third with Jose Ramirez to bat. The perennial MVP candidate lined a shot to deep center field, but Gilberto Celestino got a great jump and was able to run it down on a full sprint to the warning track to end the threat and maintain a 1-0 lead.
But that catch always reminds me of another great Celestino catch, and why not show that one again…
Josh Naylor walked to lead off the seventh inning, but with one out, Richie Palacios grounded into an inning-ending double play.
Captain Cave… Man!
Jake Cave has had a couple of tough years the last two seasons with the Twins, at least offensively. Prior to that, he was a very solid fourth outfielder, but with the Twins injuries the last couple of seasons, he has been forced into more action than was intended, including a lot of ABs against southpaws. Last year, he missed significant time with a fractured back.
Removed from the 40-man roster in the offseason, Cave spent most of this season at Triple-A St. Paul. He played great, getting on-base pretty much every game. In 85 games, he hit 273/.370/.509 (.879) with 20 doubles, seven triples and 14 home runs. As impressive, he continued to put up numbers as he watched player after player get called up to the Twins before he was. In fact, he was about the eighth outfielder on the depth chart when he was finally called back up. And, since then, more injuries have meant that he’s again played more than was planned.
Now, I’m not here to say that he’s been great. I’m not saying they should bring him back. I’m just saying that he’s filled in admirably and does not deserve the online hate that he often gets.
On Sunday afternoon, he gave the Twins their 1-0 lead in the second inning when he hit a solo homer. It was his fifth homer since joining the Twins and his second big home run in this Cleveland series.
One general observation from watching him play with the Saints and in his return to the Twins is that he is staying down on the ball and doing a much better job driving the ball to the opposite field, as he did today.
He has played solid defense wherever he’s been, and been happy with any opportunities he gets. And no one can ever question his effort.
All Rise for Arraez
Jovani Moran got the final out of the 8th inning to maintain a 1-0 lead for the Twins, but that isn’t exactly a comfortable lead. A little insurance sure would have been nice!
The first two batters in the top of the ninth inning got out, but then Celestino walked. It was followed by a single from Mark Contreras (who had come in an inning earlier as a defensive replacement for Matt Wallner, who had two hits in the game). Nick Gordon then pinch hit for Jermaine Palacios, and he waAll-Starlked to load the bases.
That set the stage for All Star Luis Arraez, and he came through with yet another big hit for the Twins. He lined a solid single up the middle to score two runs and give the Twins a 3-0 lead.
In addition, Carlos Correa continued his red-hot September. With three hits on Sunday, he had his seventh multi-hit game in the month.
Sanchez Helps Duran
Jhoan Duran has been, arguably, the most dominant reliever in baseball for much of the second half, if not all year. Obviously, Cleveland’s Emmanuel Clase is in that conversation as well.
However, on Sunday, he didn’t display the same kind of control and command as we have seen from him throughout the season. He got the leadoff man (Rosario) out, but then he walked Jose Ramirez, and not intentionally. He started Josh Naylor off with a fastball for a ball. At that point, just four of Duran’s 11 pitches were strikes.
Personal opinion and observation… With a 1-0 count, Gary Sanchez called three straight slow(ish) sliders (the upper-80s one that drops more than the other one) and Naylor missed all three for a strikeout. Sanchez continued to call mostly breaking balls and struck out Oscar Gonzalez on the same pitch.
Gary Sanchez is not a good defensive catcher. That’s probably putting it fairly nicely. The difference between Sanchez and Ryan Jeffers is very noticeable both by the eye test and by statistical measures.
However, have to give credit where credit is due, Sanchez deserves credit for having Duran mix it up. With his fastball command lost in this game, Sanchez recognized it and helped Duran by calling another of his pitches, and fortunately that pitch was on. In the end, he threw 17 pitches, so he ended the game with six straight strikes to end the game with two strikeouts.
Pre-Game Transaction
Following Saturday’s lengthy double-header, the Twins wanted to make sure they had a long-relief option. Dereck Rodriguez was terrific in his 3 2/3 innings in that role in Saturday’s late game. Unfortunately, for him, that meant that he was optioned back to St. Paul.
Ronny Henriquez was set to start on Sunday afternoon for the Saints. Instead, he traveled to Cleveland and was activated shortly before the Twins game started. Veteran Ariel Jurado made the start for the Saints in his place.
Henriquez came to the Twins in the Mitch Garver trade to Texas. He turned 22 years old in mid-June, and has a 3-4 record with a 5.66 ERA with the Saints. The hard-throwing Dominican has made 14 starts and come out of the bullpen ten times. While his overall numbers don’t look great, he has been much better of late. Over his past five outings, he is 1-0 with a save. In 21 innings, he has just four walks to go with 24 strikeouts. He has given up just one or two runs in four of his past five appearances. On September 7th, he gave up two runs on one hit and one walk. In five innings, he struck out nine batters. On September 13th, he came out of the bullpen and recorded a four-inning save. He gave up one run on two hits. He walked none and struck out three. In short, if he doesn’t hurt himself with walks, he can be very effective and has some really sharp, nasty stuff. Texas had already placed him on the 40-man roster, so the Twins didn’t need to make an additional 40-man roster move.
What’s Next?
The Twins had hoped to take at least four (if not five) games in this five-game series. On Monday afternoon, they’ll send RHP Sonny Gray (8-4, 2.83 ERA) to the mound and attempt to win a second game in a row, and in the series. The game will start at 12:05 central time and air on Bally Sports North. Cleveland will counter with RHP Cal Quantrill (12-5, 3.51 ERA).
Postgame Interviews
Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet
TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN TOT Moran 40 0 0 0 15 5 60 Jax 0 0 18 22 13 0 53 Duran 0 0 19 16 0 17 52 Sanchez 0 0 0 0 49 0 49 Fulmer 0 0 21 11 17 0 49 López 0 17 0 0 32 0 49 Thielbar 0 12 12 15 0 0 39 Pagán 0 0 0 0 31 0 31 Henriquez 0 0 0 0 0 0 0