IndianaTwin

Pagan realized he had a better opportunity to become the all-time bWAR leader among Twins who primarily wore No. 15 (currently Al Worthington at 10.0) than among those who wore No. 12 (Cesar Tovar at 25.9).

Observations like this are a prime reason to visit TD regularly.

TD didn’t have gobs of coverage and discussion around last summer’s Baseball Hall of Fame induction weekend for Tony Oliva and Jim Kaat. With the announcement coming on Wednesday for this year’s selections by the writers, I decided to share something that I put together. I had attended Kirby Puckett’s induction week with a dear friend, but had generally assumed I wouldn’t attend another. Though I’ve been to the Hall several times since then, it was always at another time of year. If you’re wanting to visit the Hall itself, induction weekend itself isn’t a good time because of the crowds present. So while I’d assumed I wouldn’t induction weekend again, I’d told my wife that the one possible exception was if Oliva was selected by a version of the veteran’s committee. After he lost votes in the last couple rounds of voting compared to the year when he’d come within one vote, I figured he’d not get picked, however. Even knowing it was a possibility last winter, I largely resigned myself to not going even if he was picked, figuring that the hassle and cost wasn’t worth it in a post-COVID world. However, when I realized the intense visceral reaction I had when the Golden Era Committee results were announced, letting out a huge roar that probably shook the neighbors, I decided to reconsider. Knowing that rooms can be tough to get, I reserved a couple nights in Albany just in case. In the coming months, the desire to go kept growing, so by March or April I was blocking out days on my work calendar and making plans. I recently put together a YouTube video that some of you might enjoy. It’s here: A few notes: Make a sandwich – it’s nearly 30 minutes long. But if you’re interested in a particular section, there’s this. The first third, from 0:00 to around 10:00, gives a bit of intro and shows some of the memorabilia on hand from Oliva and Kaat. From 10:00 to around 19:00 is about visiting the rest of the Hall. Things from the ceremony itself around from about 26:30 to the end. Though those parts were fun, the highlight of the weekend for me was probably the Parade of Legends. On Saturday evening, folks line up Main Street for a parade where each living attendee rides by on the back of a pickup truck as they make their way to a private reception held at the Museum. With the death of so many Hall of Famers in the last several years and with Covid perhaps lessening the desire for some to travel, nearly all the attendees were from my childhood and younger adult years. My son and I snagged a front row spot in the early afternoon, so we were able to see folks. Conveniently, a dude behind us yelled, “Thank you, ____(first name)_____,” for each person who rode by. Amidst the polite applause people were offering, his voice stood out, so nearly every person turned our way and waved, letting me get some pretty decent pictures of each. That’s a long way of saying that the Parade of Legends lasts from 19:00 to 26:30 in the video. I have a mediocre mic on the computer, so to answer your question, “No, I wasn’t recording from the locker room at my local high school.” It’s easily audible, just not professional level. It’s film production by PowerPoint, after all. But at any rate, enjoy. I did, both being there and revisiting the weekend as I made it.

I think it can be both-and. In addition to having a traditional closer, traditional 8th-inning guy, traditional 7th-inning guy, I think it’s possible to have a “flexible high-leverage guy.” In fact, I think a bullpen needs one of those. When Hader was coming on to the scene in Milwaukee, for example, that was his role. Corey Knebel was the primary closer, even though Hader was more effective. I didn’t pay close enough attention to how they used him — I was just frustrated that my fantasy team wasn’t getting every save. In that way, I think it’s possible to have your second-best reliever be the “closer,” especially if he’s got experience there. So, for example, give Lopez the two- and three-run saves and the one-run saves against the bottom of the order, and assume he’ll lead the team in that category. Use Jax in the traditional eighth-inning role. But use Duran flexibly, in high-leverage spots — putting out fires in the seventh or eighth, one-run saves against the top of the order, the ninth when Lopez has already gone two-straight days, the four-or five-out save when Lopez has pitched the previous day and Duran finishes the eighth on six pitches, etc.

Be able to go on back-to-back days a bit more regularly and effectively. He’s only did it five times last year. It’s SSS, but he gave up a run three of those times.

Sorry -- meant top two picks from the same draft.

Including that 34 of his last 36 starts had him in the lead off spot.

Have there been any other occasions where the top two picks ended up as teammates?

We don't. But it's the internet, so we don't have to know anything in order to speak with certainty. :-)

Yeah, I picked up that in the press conference as well. There was also a statement there where Boras specifically referenced Levine having maintained contact throughout the process. There was also a thread about the whole time-value-of-money thing, and while you were typing, I was punching up a spreadsheet out of curiosity. Turns out that if you use a 5 percent discount rate, the final contract (if it goes the full 10 years) provides Correa almost exactly the same amount in current dollars as if he signed at 10/281. (I see the luxury tax as just a bonus. And I'm not sure I'm even understanding it correctly.)

We only see the final results, so we don't know the process, but with all the things the team does with options and incentives (think Buxton), it seems to me that the FO office is regularly approaching conversations with the line that I bolded. And I think that's a good thing. In my limited experiences with negotiations, that's almost always the way to approach it. Not only does it increase the likelihood of success on that particular negotiation, it increases the likelihood of getting the next opportunity as well. And frankly, I think it's more enjoyable to go through life trying to help another person than it is trying to screw them over. That's why the "who won and who lost this trade" articles bug me -- in a good trade, both teams win by meeting their needs. Separately, am I right in thinking that the option years also help the Twins in terms of their luxury tax calculation? Not that they appear (on the surface, but who knows about the future, right?) overly concerned about that, but doesn't this now count as $270M/10 = $27M against the tax as opposed to $200M/6 = $33.33M?

This isn’t a comment on the doctors, but against those TD readers who have suggested that Correa “fell into the Twins lap,” piling on to the whole “FO doesn’t know what they are doing” mantra. To my mind, the Twins FO acted fabulously in this situation. It’s okay to make an original offer that maxes out what you think you can and/or want to offer, and if the player goes elsewhere, so be it. Knowing your own limits is an attribute. But from what I read, the Twins were the primary organization that maintained contact throughout the Giants/Mets ordeal. I’m guessing the message was more or less, “Hey, Scott, if things fall through, we’d like to talk. Can’t go higher than we were, but we still like Carlos a lot.” Then, when Boras came back, they tweaked the deal to acknowledge concern, but also put together a deal that’s arguably better than the Mets offer, when the time value of money is taken into account.

Can you go ahead and paste a link to this article in the comments after every “trade Kepler” article you see? :-) I’m going to take one of the suggestions a step further. Don’t bat him 6th-8th. Bat him 9th. He draws a lot of walks and is a great base runner. That’s ideal table setting for the top of the order. There’s tweaking here, but think of an Opening Day* order that’s something like Arraez (1B), Buxton (CF), Correa (SS), Polanco (2B), Gallo (LF), Miranda (3B), Kirilloff (DH), Catcher (C), Kepler (RF). I like Kepler, but in that lineup, you can’t bat him in the top six. So if 7th to 9th are a combination of Kirilloff, Catcher and Kepler, in my mind Kepler is the clear No. 9 hitter. That assumes Farmer, Gordon, Larnach and the second catcher filling out the roster. I’d largely always bat the catcher eighth. If any of the other three are in the lineup, it could well be for Kirilloff. Or, Kirilloff and that reserve bat 6th and 7th. But in any case, if Kepler’s in the lineup, I think he’s an excellent No. 9 choice. It’s not until injuries add Celestino to the roster that I consider moving Kepler up to 7th or above. After typing this, the more I like the overall talent level of this mix. And the less I like trading Kepler, and I was already not on that bandwagon. For development purposes, I’d much prefer starting Celestino in St. Paul. I’m glad to be healthy enough for Wallner to get more time there as well, but he’s probably No. 14 — the next man up in any non-catcher injury (unless it’s Buxton, in which case it’s Celestino). Celestino is probably No. 15. By definition, the next man up is a rookie or a marginal (think Contreras/LaMarre). Keeping Kepler means you’re one more injury away from having to dig that keep. *Opening Day is a proper noun and needs to be capitalized.

Agreed. It’s not a popular opinion on TD, but I like the collection of 17 hitters on the 40-man. Operative word being “collection.” Good talent, mix of skill sets, lots of positional flexibility, blend of vets and youth. Look, we’re not going to trade Buxton, and it’s very rare that you trade a just-signed FA (not sure I’ve ever heard) in Gallo. Among the others, if there’s a trade of them that improves the team, sure, but otherwise, this feels like a solution in search of a problem.

As is Sisco, in my opinion. I think they are well set at C. Aside from differing with the opening paragraph that 8 of 40 isn’t “nearly 25 percent,” I’m with Ash — it’s not a problem. If it’s a big deal to you, change the Web page (created by the PR department, not Falvey and associates, by the way) to list Kirilloff and Gordon with the infielders. Now we’re at six outfielders on the 40. Problem solved. If folks are healthy, assume that Celestino (and probably Wallner) are in St. Paul. Now the 26-man roster lists Buxton, Gallo, Kepler, Larnach.

Air Supply’s “Greatest Hits, Vol. 2.”

He’s a catcher so he won’t get the at bats to win Sire, but I like the Sisco signing.

I’m not sure I want any of the Marlins pitchers. It’s not that I don’t think any of them would improve the team. I’m just not sure I can handle all of the “Is ________ an ace” articles bound to appear on TD.

Right. Will Farmer match Urshela’s WAR from last year? Perhaps, even probably not. But in the context of this year’s team, Farmer seems way more valuable. Plus a better contract, as you note. I agree that he’s been undervalued on TD this off-season, but practically anyone outside of Correa was going to be disparaged here.

Boil a feather, Heather.

Winner, winner, crow dinner? Sounds like a new theme for the year.

Some articles do age better than others…

With having been at Garrett and living in Evanston, you've no doubt got plenty of Chicago food spots on your list, but https://smoquebbq.com/ is only a block off the Kennedy at Pulaski. Outstanding as the brisket and pulled pork (and fries) are, I've gotten a serious hankering for the BBQ Gumbo made with chicken, sausage and rib meat and served over rice. More than one work-related trip has been slightly modified with a slight detour. The Monument to Cement is a pretty easy buy-cheap-seats-and-move-down option. I've sometimes found them a stickler with levels, so I tend to buy the cheapest seats I can find in the 100 level and then move around. No shame in having memorized Major League. But Major League 2? I'm not so sure about that.

MLR, I’m responding to yours because it’s the most convenient and because you’ve conveniently listed the starter options. 24 / 23 / 27 / 11(+4)/ 0 / 5(+23) / 1(+22) / 5 / 11 (+6) / 0(+6) That’s the number of starts those 10 guys had last year (including the minors in parentheses). In summary, that’s three guys with 23+ starts in the majors; two with 23+ starts, but most of them in the minors; two guys with 15-17 starts (about one-third of them in the minors); a guy who missed the season and is coming off TJS; a guy with 5 starts, but not available until August because of TJS; and a guy with 6 minor league starts. All in all, I’m actually relatively encouraged by the potential strength and depth that group provides. But the only ones that feel like true locks are Ryan and Gray (and I’ll give you Mahle, though he did miss the last month-plus). I like Maeda. A lot. To my knowledge, I was the first person to suggest him as a trade target in an offseason blueprint. But I now find it interesting that a bunch of people seem to be using his presence, coming back from TJS, as a reason we don’t want an injury-prone Wacha. Folks have been clamoring for “ceiling.” That’s what Wacha presents. If you say, “What have you done for me lately,” he would arguably be the Opening Day starter if you consider starts (as many Mahle and Gray, a few fewer than Ryan), ERA+ (matching Gray, significantly better than Ryan or Mahle) and bWAR (0.9 more than any of them). He has always been highly regarded, a No. 1 draft pick, and at one point, we would have been clamoring to pick him up. Look, it always comes down to “at the right price.” I don’t see any of us advocating for a three-year deal. Only some of us are suggesting two years, which is what MLBTR predicted (at $8M/yr.). That he hasn’t gotten that yet makes one wonder whether that’s a bit high. If they could get him for something like $8M for one year, with $1M bonuses for 18, 21, 24 and 27 starts, maybe with a $1M option for a similar figure that vests at 24 starts, I think it would be worth taking a shot. In my mind, one of several things happens: Maeda isn’t at full strength, Paddack isn’t back, etc. The added depth Wacha provides will be helpful — that list of 10 guys is now down to eight. He pitches great, as do others. If so, he was worth it, because the team is probably in contention. He pitches great, others don’t. He’s a significant trade chip. His 16 or so starts by the deadline won’t have significantly limited the opportunity for young guys, since they will still get chances when other guys stink. He pitches poorly, others pitch great. He may still be a trade chip, because teams like “stuff.” Also, the team has actually shown a willingness to dump guys (Reed, Duffey, etc.) when they are on the last year of a contract and they have alternatives to use (Bundy and Archer don’t count — they didn’t realistically have options that were ready last midsummer). If Ober/SWR/Varland are beating down the door while Wacha struggles, I think they’d drop him. He pitches poorly, others also stink or are hurt (including the young ones). They needed the body. And finally, remember that deals don’t happen in a vacuum. If signing Wacha gives them the freedom use another pitcher for a SS upgrade, for example, that’s also a win.

In this order, here's lines on Wacha, Gray, Mahle, Ryan, Maeda... 2022 33 MIN AL 0 0 0.0 (did not pitch, recovering from Tommy John surgery...) Wacha averaged 5.5 innings per start (higher than any Twin), with a higher ERA+ than any Twins starter. Even if they stay healthy, there's going to be innings limits on the rookies and Maeda. As DJL suggests, Wacha could be a relief option (the long guy folks are clamoring for?), but he could also easily take Maeda's spot and make Maeda that long guy. If they are so fortunate to have them all healthy, I could also see them going the 6-starter route. So yes, please, on Wacha.