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Doomtints

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Everything posted by Doomtints

  1. Doomtints
    The Cubs only have the one great draft pick. The rest of their success can be attributed to spending money. Note that the Twins also could have picked up some of those guys but passed. Dexter Fowler's salary is not out of line and he signed very late with the Cubs. The Twins could have signed him a year earlier and paid even less. A team that has been in the Twins position passing on Fowler is baffling when they had two chances to get him. The fact that he signed with Houston when Houston was as bad as Minnesota indicates he wasn't picky. Also note that Kris Bryant would be picked on a bit by fans in the Twins market due to his defense and his strikeouts. I was at Wrigley on the 4th of July and saw him collide with two different players and let several balls drop. The conversations around Bryant would all be about regression and how dare the Cubs let a 3rd baseman play in the outfield. The grass is always greener, I suppose.
  2. Doomtints
    Probably doesn't matter. If Falvey is a smart guy, he will have learned by watching what those guys were doing.
  3. Doomtints
    If it were me, I would hire MacLeod. You know, someone who was part of the Cubs as the turnaround occurred. Someone who was earlier with an impressive run with the Red Sox. Cleveland, if anything, has underperformed from what was expected from them over the past three years -- and this isn't one of the tougher divisions in baseball. The Cubs have to contend with St. Louis every year -- a team so consistently good where they still could knock the Cubs out of the playoffs in spite of the Cubs dominating the regular season (note: I don't think this will happen). The talent on the Cubs team truly is impressive. They're not a mirage. If the Twins want to duplicate that, that's where they should pull front office talent from. Pulling talent from Cleveland is not tragic, mind you. But in my opinion it's not hiring the best available. 2nd best, maybe. But why not go with the best? So I think asking if Falvey can replicate what happened with the Cubs is a bad question. He had nothing to do with that and we can bet he will have a different way of doing things than the Cubs front office. A better question is whether he can replicate what happened with the Indians ... nevermind that the Indians will be already replicating it in the same division as the Twins. If this were chess, I would call it a stalemate. </rant>
  4. Doomtints
    I believe that's what he was called in Chicago, not in Minnesota. It's fair to say he did not have the same success in with the Cubs (though his record there is more respectable than most people think).
  5. Doomtints
    This year, the Twins have had a nice, albeit far too streaky, offense. Provided things are not blown up too much over the offseason, the kids should start showing more consistency. Better pitching and defense will help their bats cash in a few more wins and might even help their streakiness a bit.
  6. Doomtints
    What's wrong with the old Derek Falvey?
  7. Doomtints
    That's right. I was familiar with that quote but still managed to misread it. Nevertheless, the new front office has a tougher task than he did when he first came in.
  8. Doomtints
    Even in that terrible 1982 season, the Twins had three-fifths of a good rotation. The same story goes for 1983-1986, though 1983 had some Viola growing pains. The bullpen, however, was horrific in those years. The Twins won the series in 1987 with a worse starting pitching staff than in previous years but a very good bullpen. Whoever gets the job with the Twins now has a much tougher task as far as pitching concerned. Note that firing the manager was probably the biggest thing that turned that team around. Billy Gardner was terrible at managing the pitchers.
  9. Doomtints
    I was skeptical when I heard this, but someone told me that the Twins not only have stipulated that Molitor must be kept, but have also said during interviews that Antony must stay too.
  10. Doomtints
    Yeah. That includes multi-home run games. In games where he hit a home run, the Twins have gone 15-23 for a .394 winning percentage. With the Twins at .359 now, evidence suggests his power is worth about five more wins to this team. This is close to but a little lower than his WAR (6.3 or 6.6, depending on your flavor), which makes sense as his non-power skills are worth a few pennies too. Advanced metrics give him an extra 11 points of team win percentage from his power, which is far short of five wins. But I'll stick with my estimation. Does this make him MVP material? I would say no. If his defensive WAR were a couple of points higher I think he becomes worthy of MVP discussion. He can finish the season as the home run leader. That's a huge achievement, esp. for a Twin and esp. for a 2nd baseman.
  11. Doomtints
    Has anyone looked up the Twins W-L record in games that Dozier hit a home run? We'll find out right there how valuable he is since he is only in this discussion due to his dingers.
  12. Doomtints
    No, mistakes don't cause failure. You said it yourself: "true failure is failing to recognize them [mistakes] and learn from them." In other words, making a mistake, and then doing nothing to fix that mistake (inaction), causes failure. That's right. It's the inaction that causes the failure, not the mistake. If someone is not analyzing their mistakes (or "learning from them" as you say) then they are not acting on them. We saw this with Ryan. He was hesitant to make any moves. When he would step up and do something, if it was then a mistake he wouldn't fix it. He sent the entire outfield away for prospects and then never fixed the defensive problem in the outfield. How many years ago was that? This is the first year since that the team has had anything resembling a proper outfield defense. The pitching is in the same ridiculous state it was in when he first got his job back. The payroll is now the same as it was before he declared it needed to be trimmed. Ryan's inaction -- whether that inaction was to fix issues or a reluctance to fix his own mistakes -- cost this team five years.
  13. Doomtints
    You could certainly be right but I think that's worst-case. Santana is good. Santiago might be good in the future. Berrios may start being able to dress himself next year. Gibson can bounce back and be solid (if unexciting) again. As you can see that's a lot of "might be" and "may" and "can" and nothing definite. At this point we just don't know. But there isn't much beyond this crew so the Twins had better pick up at least one guy, preferably two or three. In any case, it would not be too shocking if we see better play from these guys next year. The bullpen needs more work but it might not be as bad as it seems. The Twins have a couple of bullpen arms who are OK (Kintzler, Pressly, Rogers), but they have no one who can set up or close. Those are the two most important roles for a bullpen and not having them is a glaring omission. The Twins should not be afraid to bite the bullet and pay market rate for a short-term closer. There is no shame in that, and maybe next year someone steps up for 2018. Same for a set-up man. That still leaves a boatload of positions to fill, but they'll have May, Milone and Perkins and others coming back, and Duffey should be in the pen too. Not expecting much excitement from those guys but they may at least play near the median.
  14. Doomtints
    Making mistakes is not what causes failure. Provided you remain ethical, not taking action is what causes failure. Ask any entrepreneur. Ryan was good when his presence was felt -- when he was active. When he disappeared for long periods of time and didn't make any moves the results were terrible. There are countless examples of the same thing in every business. Everyone should have seen this coming with Ryan by the midpoint of last year, at the latest, when he seemed to forget about the trade deadline.
  15. Doomtints
    True, but I think we are overreacting a bit. It's common for C-level execs to come in with the stipulation that they do not fire certain people. It's unusual to hear about it for sports, but Pohlad is a businessman. Pohlad's only mistake here is announcing this stipulation to the world. This would have been a mistake in the business world too, mind you. I think this is less of an issue than we imagine it to be. It's not great, but it's not terrible. Any incoming management team will have a lot to worry about and may even think it's a good thing to not have to worry about a manager for a year. For Molitor, I think he knows he is gone in a year unless the Twins make the playoffs. And I think he knows the Twins chances in 2017 are very slim. The pressure is more on for Molitor than it is for the next management group, who can use Molitor as a get-out-of-jail free card if there isn't an immediate improvement. In any case, it actually would not surprise me if Molitor retires before the 2017 season starts. If he senses that the writing is on the wall for him, I think he walks. Why stay if everyone you know has been canned, and you know you're next, continuing to be employed only because of a contract and not because management has confidence in you? Money would be the only reason, and I don't suspect money is much of a problem for him.
  16. Doomtints
    Agreed on all points. Judging by how surprised most of us were with this team being this bad this year, there is also the possibility that the Twins under-performed for their talent level. If they overshot by a little in 2015, I can buy that they underperformed in 2016. If this is really a 70-win team (with some TLC) instead of a 60-win team, then they're not quite needing a full rebuild. If the Twins have at least an average pitching staff, their hitting can probably keep them in the thick of things. They'll need more than that for the playoffs, but I think they can be competitive sooner rather than later. People generally call me a pessimist when it comes to the Twins, but I don't see them needing a full 3-year rebuild. Three years to have a team that can advance in the playoffs, sure, but they're not 3 years away from not being embarrassing and not being taken seriously by opponents.
  17. Doomtints
    That might be taking WAR a little too literally. WAR may show 5 wins but the reality may be something completely different. Reality could be -5 wins or even +10 wins. Shoeless Joe Jackson has some pretty nice numbers while tanking a world series. In fact, as a team the White Sox hit far better in the WS than they did in the regular season, and the pitching was very close too! WAR would look at them favorably even as they were tanking. Plus, some players do inspire others to do well, even if it isn't measurable.
  18. Doomtints
    Always hoped McLeod would be the guy. I'm happy to see the rumors going in that direction. This would not uproot McLeod's family too much either. Chicago and the Twin Cities are not that far apart. He wouldn't need to uproot his family at all, probably, since during the baseball season he would never be around even if they all lived in the same city. Barring a job with the White Sox, Brewers, or Cardinals, the Twins are a pretty good deal in that regard. Plus, the Twins are committed to a clean sweep. He can build whatever he wants in Minnesota and only need to deal with Molitor for a year. He may not get that opportunity elsewhere, to completely build everything out as HE wants.
  19. Doomtints
    Michael Tonkin ... the guy the Twins added to the 40 man roster way back in 2012, barely seeing MLB action since. This in spite of his numbers being good enough to play and the Twins pitching getting mercilessly shred during that time period. Trade him. The front office has already damaged the relationship with him beyond repair. Since there is no numerical reason to have kept him down or on the bench for four years, the reason has to be the Twins classic "we don't like his approach or his attitude" rubbish. Do the kid a favor and let him go to where a team will let him play. Think about it folks. The current Twins management would have kept Blyleven on the bench or kept him in the minors. With Blyleven's famously noisy ass and hot-foot shenanigans, the Twins would have never let the guy play.
  20. Doomtints
    What you are saying is that FP% can suffer from sample size issues. The thing is, so do all analytics, esp. defensive ones. If FP% is indicating a guy is rubbish, very likely anything advanced is saying the same thing. However, FP% normalizes faster than UZR. I have never seen anyone suggest that you need three years of FP% to trust it. *THIS* is where FP% can be misleading -- it might show someone is a good fielder when he is not. If FP% shows a player sucks, he does. Anything more advanced is going to simply back that up. And if it doesn't, don't trust it. The real issue is that sample is too small for the more advanced metric.
  21. Doomtints
    No one "pisses and moans" about losing Ortiz. Or even gripes or complains. We feel it was unfortunate. That's it. One big difference between then and now is that, back then, the Twins had a good pitching staff and few holes on the field. Now?
  22. Doomtints
    Pitching - sure. Coaching - sure. Don't forget: defense, defense, defense.
  23. Doomtints
    Duffy to the pen is a good idea. The rest of these guys ... eh ...
  24. Doomtints
    On Hughes.... As you all know, Hughes went from doctor to doctor this year only to find he was affected by something that none of us had ever heard of. A week later a different pitcher was identified in the MLB and had the same surgery. Until Hughes hits the field and becomes a different player, I am a bit skeptical about how the surgery he had will help him.
  25. Doomtints
    I think Sano and Polanco are the future stars of this team -- over Buxton and everyone else. Not sure where you're getting that from.
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