DocBauer

I would also say its irresponsible to go in to three straight seasons without at least some reasonable back up option for your CF plan. No matter how great a prospect Buxton is, there were questions as to his readiness this season. (Like Hicks the past 2 seasons) TR confessed as much when he commented to promoting earlier than what they wanted, and before he was ready, last season as they didn't have an option.

My head hurts from banging it against walls. The only person you can drop from your roster to make room for an aging role playing corner OF is your 3rd catcher, who at least has some ability and a little potential?

If Nolasco continues to be solid, I have to believe a team out tnere, very possibly a NL team since that is mostly where his career has been played, would be interested in a solid veteran SP who is healthy again, and only has one more year on his contract. He probably becomes even more tradable if the Twins sweeten the deal with a low prospect or cash. Dealing, cutting or trying Milone in the pen doesn't affect the Twins in any gross manner. I wonder though at the pecking order of promotion. 1] Berrios is a top prospect who is ready, or really, really close. I would never bet against him. But even if he doesn't develop in to a #1, he should still be very good. 2] Duffey may have surprised people, but his milb record is not only solid, but generally showed steady improvemet. His 9 out of 10 solid to good starts in '15 can't be ignored. And he isn't exactly sacking at Rochester right now. 3] Meyer is off to a flying start. Less we forget, he was a top prospect before his disappointing 2015 season. Hey, it happens! But do we ride the wave of a hot start and trust it and his talent that he will be just fine, expected bumps included? Or do we hold him back a little longer to continue building consistency and confidence? In the bullpen, I can absolutely see giving Chargois some AAA time. After all, he missed a ton of milb time due to injury, and despite an impressive ST, has zero time above AA. But then again, once in a while a kid comes along that just seems to have IT. And it sure feels like he may be one of those guys.

I don't believe in machines calling balls and strikes any more than I believe in machines calling pass interference or any other penalty in football. There is a human element to the way the game is played on the field...an inch or two can make the difference of a caught ball or a hit, a foul ball or a double down the line. Almost every single hitter at the plate has a different stance, even proximity in the batterbox, compared to every other batter before and after. Thus, the strike zone, to a degree, changes. And if you have a pitcher, a Maddux for example, that can have pin point control enough to paint a corner right on the black consistently, then I still don't have a problem with that consisfently, even borderline, being called a strike. As long as the calls are consistent. But that is where the problem lies. With the exception of said pin point control being somewhat arbitrary, the strike zone, even for different batters, is still rather clearly defined...and always has been! Human error be damned, a missed call or two will almost certainly balance out for all teams. But it is the blatant disregard for the rules based on personal bias as to what is a strike, or worse, consistent incomletance, that is the root of a problem. Sticking strictly with baseball as a referencd, if a player can't perform as ended or expected, he is benched or optioned down. Why is this not also an option for umpires? The MLBPA has had tremendous power for decades, though that power has eroded ever so slightly the past few years. Despite some attempts at strong armed tactics, the ML umpire association has not been nearly as powerful, despite their belief that they are. The standards are set by regulation. The umpires, their overseers and their union should understand this, and have the capability to review and regulate such standards. There should be no open, personal interpretation of said regulations, for the most part, as there are actual rules and parameters to follow. This is not a professorship...anot entirely different subject matter and debate...and there should be no tenure. I would think it more prudent, any my preference, for any umpire that doesn't make muster to be demoted or removed in favor of a milb, college, or other umpire to receive an opportunity to show his abilities on a promotional or trial basis. (Yes, I exagerate...but only somewhat) Even as complicated as the NFL is in rules interpretation and enforcement, (and this also has probably as many faulty outliers as ML umpires), at least there are reviews and ramifications for performance leading to removal, removal from top games, and a reward system for only top crews to referee top games, playoffs and the Super Bowl. I think it's way past time that MLB step in and do something about umpires and crews that just can't consistently get things right. Being an umpire may be a thankless job in many respects, but it is a PROFESSIONAL occupation. And there is a difference between human error and incompetance.

Absolutely. Both very intriguing talents, though further away. Seth, I had a post recently concerning the Twins actually being sellers at some point this season, winning record or not, possible contention or not, as I felt guys like Nolasco, (only 1 year left on his deal and pitching healthy now it appears), and Milone could be dealt to make room for a Duffey return, and promotion for Berrios and Meyer, assuming he keeps it up. (Hughes and Santana would probably prove much harder to move with longer term deals). My arguement being that the Twins, FO on down, would feel the need and pressure, for long term success, if not short term, to make such moves even if the Twins are not, and supposedly have never been, in actual "rebuild" mode. I'd be very curious on your take on this.

I think I would agree with you here. After a rough season last year, I could easily see the Twins being in a "prove it over some time so we KNOW you are ready" and not just having a couple good games. But really, don't the Twins have to be absolutely giddy at this time to see the rebound Meyer has made? As to Meyer's part in this, he needs to just keep focusing on what he's doing and not get caught up in any promotion thoughts, or despair if someone like Duffey were to go up before him. After all, Duffey was up ,at season, and did have real success. Meyer just needs to keep marching out there, be himself, and keep grinding. The opportunity will come.

Still a SSS at this point, in regard to the bad as well as the good. But the power is real. He looks like he knows what he is doing at the plate and making adjustments. And I like what I've seen from him defensively. (Oh, if only he could really play 3B). There is no doubt his presence complicates the makeup of the roster. There is no doubt his signing wasn't truly needed based on said construction and options before his signing. But I can never fault someone for going out and acquiring additional talent for their team.

The entire milb segment is pretty much the sports hilight of my day, but Meyer, Berrios, Duffey, Gonsalves and Stewart are absolute "page turners" at this point

I'm happy to have him back in the organization. And I agree with all the sentiments brought up by Seth and John. Gardenhire, as stated, was a tough, gritty, self-made ballplayer who worked his way to the ML level. This something, percentage wise, that is still rare to do and should be respected. He was a highly successful and welL regarded milb manager who worked under the trumpeted and esteemed Tom Kelly and was part of the last Twins WS team. He is the winning-est manager in Twins history. But because he himself didn't manage a team to a WS win he was a poor manager? And because his last few teams were poor it's all on him? Last I knew, the was still a team game. Last I knew, only one team ever finished the season in any sport as the champion. So this highly successful milb manager and ML coach and manager, recognized by independent parties as a manager of year and multiple runner up is back with the organization to provide scouting, coaching and experience to the organization. I don't know...I see nothing but good from this.

Kind of a double edged sword. The kids like Kepler and Polano, both super talented, need to continue playing every day. However, if they are up only for a week or two, then go back to Rochester to play daily, I don't feel their continuity suffers very much. And they get to soak up some ML time and experience to take back with them. But even with team hopes and expectations, and the poor start to the year, and hopes to pull themselves back up to .500 and contention status still within grasp, isn't there still some room for a few games started while they are here? I would think, in the long run, a day off for a regular helps build stamina for the entire season, (something that I think has hurt Dozier each of his second halves the past two seasons), and would provide the kids that much more of a learning experience.

dxpavelka kind of stole my thunder. Very happy to see Joe looking like his old self again. And with that, until or unless someone else emerges, if Mauer actual is Mauer again, I'd keep him in the 3 spot I think. With the overall RH-NESS of the lineup, and a fair number of SO'S projected for the season, he has the ability to break up a run of mostly RH bats, get on base, but also knock in runners with hits, doubles and the occasional HR. I just think the lineup plays better 4 Sano, 5 Plouffe, and then a mix of Arcia-Park-Rosario 6-7.

It's the big picture that is most important. He had reasonable success at this level last year, but nothing truly dominate. If you follow milb promotions in the Twins system, you will see they've been more aggressive recently. But this is a kid, major arm and potential, that is still young not only for his level, but young for committing himself only to baseball. He needed a repeat, at least initially, for this level. The early results are very encouraging.

I was very happy to see the decision to keep Meyer in the rotation. Could he still ultimately end up in the pen? Sure. And he could do great things like other power arms before him. But that is way too big of an arm, way too much potential to move him after one down year. It would be an awesome problem to have if Duffey would get back on track, and by mid season we would have a log jam of he, Berrios and Meyer pounding on promotion's door, threatening to kick it in.

FWIW, Nick, I think it's a nice thread and an accurate one. Face it, no matter anyone's expectations coming in to the season, nobody expected this start. And let's be frank, it sucks. And blame can be cast wherever you like, and it's anyone's and everyone's right to do so, but the reality is that except for 3 players, the entire team is in the dumpster offensively to begin the season. It's a combined and cumulative effort that could not have been forseen, based on talent, experience and potential, as well as past results and even spring training, but it is what it is. Hopefully, what it is will turn around and soon! And yes, we can blast the FO for 3 years of no backup CF plan, and 2 years of waiting on the bullpen. (Things that have, pretty much, been admitted to). But simply looking beyond initial disappointment at the moment, and the emotions that accompany yet, perspective must be kept. I watched the Twins mostly struggle in the 70s with penny pinching, the promotion and subsequent eventual loss of quality players that made it. In the early 80's the Twins were very aggressive in the promotion of many young talents...perhaps too aggressive in some cases...and suffered through some aweful baseball. That was a complete and sudden rebuild. And while it ultimately paid dividends for years to come, it wasn't pretty at first. While I can, I think fairly, blast the Twins for some moves they've made, and haven't made, I can respect the idea of not capitulating to such a drastic "give in" to a sudden, complete and drastic rebuild. Right or wrong, I respect the notion at least. For every Mauer and Knoblauch that comes up and just seemingly clicks from day one, history has shown us many great young players who needed that step back to make mental and physical adjustments before finding themselves. It's not an insult to baseball, or us as fans, nor necessarily a "sky is falling" scenario, when this happens. It's simply a reality of young men learning to play a complex and difficult game at the very highest level.

Seriously, aren't we just better off bringing Mastro up for a while if the intent is to send Buxton down? He appears healthy, had a great spring, and us a natural CF so you don't have to do an entire OF shuffle. Or cut Arcia.

Hip....hip............................... (yawn)

I know they are just young prospects, which means they are, in reality, suspects at this point...BUT...even if it's early, the SP have been solid or better in virtually every milb start this young season. I think it's safe to say that all but the most despondent of fans would agree the Twins rotation is solid. It doesn't stink. These guys can win. But I also think it's safe to say we can't wait for Duffey to come back, for Berrios to make his mark, for Gonsalves to be the best LHSU we've had in years, for Stewart to become the pitcher everyone believes/believed he could be, for Thorpe to be healthy and strong and back on the fast track, and for all of these other young, various A ball SP to move up the ladder. For a moment, forgetting the early struggles of our beloved parent club, realize that when those previously mentioned things happen, there will be the likes of Buxton, Sano, Kepler, Rosario, Dozier, Escobar, Polanco, Gordon and maybe a few others supporting and backing them up. We probably contended earlier than expected in 2015, which makes the poor start this year hard to handle. But the future really does look very bright.

I like your theory in general terms, Seth, but as you said, it will take time to work out the measureable and equate what is a good numer, what is bad. In a sense, where is the break point in all of this. And there many be more than one break point. For instance, while there is more to a player's measured worth than simply their BA, the fact is .250 is a break point. .250 or higher is good, universally speaking, and above is better with .300 being elite. Conversely, below .250 is obviously not so good, while .200 has always been the "inept" mark, for lack of a better term. Considering the somewhat volatile nature of the life of a RP, and in your examples given, even allowing runs doesn't necessarily mean a reliever failed, I almost wonder if a 50% "success" rate might not end up being the average?

My question is this; have the Twins over valued the abilities of Harrison? By age, he would seem to have been promoted with earnest. By production, he would seem to have been promoted too fast. He's already been moved off 3B pretty quickly. Are we looking at Moses 2? Vavra, healthy for a full season, could be interesting. But I would think Wade and Murphy would be far more interesting subjects to watch/consider. Not so sure...just a hunch...Christensen wouldn't be a comparable comp to Vavra. Of this group listed, Gordon is clearly the winner. Despite his pedigree, I wasn't sold on him as a top draft pick. Simply, every scouting report had him as a 50-55 in all categories. I just didn't see those reports as meeting expectations for a top pick. But he has not only looked good, but would seem to be exceeding those early projection numbers.

I believe you are 100% correct, age should be a consideration. But, and I believe this is Seth's point, age must always be tempered. Even if a top college signed finishes his HS career and graduates at 17, he probably turns 18 before arriving on campus. Assuming he plays immediately and doesn't redshirt his first year, (no clue what percentage do), he's playing at age 18 or maybe 19. Three years later, he's selected in the June draft, and is, at the youngest, 20 about to turn 21, or even 22. If he doesn't like his draft spot and goes back for his senior season, he's draft at age 21 or 22. For many reasons, we know college players don't step right in to a ML lineup or staff, with very, very little exception, until they have at least a year or so under their belt in the minors. The 21-22 yo player who arrives ready to make an immediate impact is a top 5 HS draftee or foreign amateur signee of outstanding natural ability who therefore wouldnt, generally, attend college anyway. That is not to demean college baseball players, simply a fact based on raw, natural ability and potential vs a young athlete who simply needs more time to develop.

So far, early or not, we've seen the SP collectively do very well. That is always encouraging. Really glad to see Turner and Garver at AA. I think it works, and I think Turner needed that slow down. Am I being naive on Jay when I say I expect him in AA for the second half of the season? Not based on one start to be sure. But with his age/maturity/college experience, I'm just not sure he's going to need A ball for very long.

I absolutely love waking up in the morning, and pretty much first thing, popping on TD and checking out the minor results from the previous day. One of the absolute highlights of my day. Seth, the SD Buhr article was a great one. And the milb depth is such that it does appear a lot of guys are a rung lower than expected. At least to open the year. Would you agree with me that we may see more movement this season, promotion wise, and perhaps earlier as well? I would be surprised to see several moves as early as the 1st of June.

I know we have a plethora of quality young arms getting so very, very close to making their debut. But they weren't ready last season. They aren't ready yet this season. And nobody without a well functioning crystal ball knows exactly when they will be ready. Which is why it is so frustrating the Twins didn't use the $2+Mil being paid to Fien, throw another 3 with it, and signing someone like Bastardo for 2 years. Now, pour out another $5M or so, roughly, and something the team could afford, and you have another option for May. Now how much better does the rotation look with Santana, Gibson, Hughex, May and Milone in it while we wait for Berrios and/or Duffey? And unless they completely implode, the Twins have a veteran RP or two to trade come the second half of the season when some,of the prospects, probably/hopefully arrive.

A great point I have often tried to make. He lost a season due to TJ. And then, by most accounts, made a pretty quick return to the mound. The numbers say Gibson is a 4th year man, but that's really due to a technicality. When he got his first promotion with the Twins, he exceeded rookie status by, I believe, 1/3 of an inning. Except for this technicality, he would have been a rookie in 2014. For a variety of reasons, different individuals hit their stride at different ages. For some it's 24-25, and for some it's 27-28 ish. Not saying he will become the proverbial "ace" of the staff, but top starter is very possible if not already true.

Gordon is a top,prospect for a reason. In theory, he wou.d provide more speed and SB's as well as a better OB%. But until he arrives, Escobar is clearly the guy, clearly a surprise and gift from the baseball gods. I think we are beyond the SSS arguement at this point. While he has clearly surpassed his milb numbers and projectability, we always have to remember that for every top prospect that doesn't make it, there is usually someone who exceeds expectations. As to the whole "utility infielder" label, he was promoted early/young to the White Sox and sat on the bench as a utility player rather than play every day. Clearly, this is one the Twins scouts got right.