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Nice work Jesse... very thought provoking! If the historical data exists, I think it would really interesting to make a cross-tab of scouting grades (30, 35, 40, 45, etc.) and ML WAR achievement, including prospect age. How often does the 45 prospect breakout, how often does the 60 prospect fail? I know the goal of your piece was different, but I think attaching some historical performance figures (in terms of average and distribution) to standard prospect ranking would be interesting. We all get so excited about an A or B prospect, but how much better do they end up than a guy who was given a C as a 20-year old? Food for thought.... maybe it's already been done too, but given the weight everyone puts on rankings, understanding the margin of error is very important.

Good point. I wonder if he'd have better luck not trying to pull those pitches, as it looked like he was trying to do last night. I can understand he was trying to park them, which isn't a bad thing. They were hittable pitches in a favorable count... but he can hit HRs to right and center too. Sano does an amazing job of hitting low pitches deep in the zone for power, no reason he can't do the same thing on higher pitches that are middle/out. I think he just got a little too ansy and was anticipating too much last night. Sometimes that happens when you guess right... you swing too early. It's encouraging that he is guessing right and getting into favorable counts, not it's just a matter of staying back and not jumping at pitches too early just because he guessed right.

Buxton's results were pretty good last night, but I remain very concerned. As Bert correctly pointed out last night, the problem is he is extending too early on his swing. That allows him to handle pitches that are middle/out and down (if he gets started early), but if they don't fix it he'll probably struggle with anything else. I'm still a little puzzled as to why he was so good in the minors. This is the approach/swing that generated monster numbers? Here's the only things that come to mind as an explanation: 1. Opposing pitchers/teams didn't have a strong idea about what zones he has problems with (this isn't necessarily a death knell for him... all hitters have weaknesses but it's about being able to adjust when pitchers start pounding those zones and striving to make those "weak spots" as small as possible... right now I think Buxton's weak spots look far too big). 2. Maybe minor league pitchers have less ability to hit their spots, generally with less velocity/stuff, thereby giving him more pitches he can handle. 3. Pitchers are conditioned to pitch most hitters low/away, especially pull hitters like Buxton... however, that's about the only place you don't want to pitch him. 4. His swing was shorter in the minors and has gotten longer or changed somehow now that he's in the show. Am I saying he is a sucky hitter and will not live up to the hype? Not at all. He is obviously a tremendous player and a gifted natural hitter. That he can produce anything with the mechanical flaws he has right now is incredible. It's just a matter of making adjustments and being ready to react to how pitchers are attacking him. Knowing what pitchers will try to do and being ready to pull his hands in on inside pitches and getting better at not trying to pull outside pitches. That will be critical. He seems to be picking up the "off the plate" sliders, which is a very positive step. I think he just has to shorten up his swing a bit (extend towards the pitcher, not the first baseman) and not get too ahead of himself. He's plenty quick enough to wait back and still drive the ball. Obviously, he needs to make more contact... with his speed, good things will happen. There's just some big adjustments to make, but I don't think anyone questions the raw ability. The only question in my mind is whether he'll be able to make those adjustments sooner rather than later, in Minneapolis or Rochester?

I still can't believe we are doing all this too keep Plouffe.

Been away from the forums for a long time, but I wanted to weigh in on a few things. 1. Is Trevor Plouffe really worth all this? We're moving our man-child, uber-rookie to the OF. Normally, I don't think fielding affects hitting, but any GM should be very careful about upsetting the potential of such a special hitter at a young age. Throwing him into a position he has never played and is poorly suited for falls into that category. Also, there is a very real chance that he costs us lots of defensive runs in the OF and gets flat out embarrassed, I hope not, but it's a VERY real risk. Then we sign a Korean slugger to play DH. Fine, but that takes away the other spot you could put Sano. Think about it... we could have traded Plouffe for whatever the market would bear, signed Ryan Raburn to platoon in RF/LF with Arcia and Rosario (also providing some nice insurance in case they faltered), and kept Sano at 3B. Regardless of what we got from the trade I think that's a better team in the short term and long term. Cheaper too. And I like Trevor, he's come a long way as a hitter and is a good defensive 3B, unfortunately he should have been traded. Of course we could give guys some playing time at 1B, but that's a totally separate issue. Our bed is made there, for better or worse... but it shouldn't have been with Plouffe. 2. Another year of bullpen issues? I was beside myself last year at this time, saying the bullpen construction could have been a fireable offense heading into 2015. This year isn't much better, the only thing making it better is we've taken one our better starters and made them into a RP. This is a huge need for this team, just as last year... and the only guy we added is Abad (pronounced uh-BAD, per BBREF). Lots of other teams made nice minor league signings or spent money to shore up a very important part of the equation, should their team make it to the post-season, or be in a position where 4-5 wins will make or break a season. I fear we'll be on the wrong end of those 10-15 games that come down to bullpen strength. Now, hopefully Berrios, Burdi, et al provide reinforcements, but we could have been in a much better position with minimal investment. In any case, it's sad that the message here seems to be "we'll just go with the same subpar group from last year and maybe have a few fresh arms come July." Granted, our bullpen wasn't the total disaster I thought they'd be last year, but they were still essentially in the bottom third of MLB, that won't cut it if we want to be a good team... and we have the financial flexibility and roster space to make improvements, that's the frustrating thing.

Before the season I posted that this team probably had the worst bullpen in baseball. I know it wasn't a priority, but dammit, there is no excuse for it.

Not necessarily, Ricky was paid in full for getting beat like a drum.

His reply is horsesh*t the only way you get winstrol into your system is on purpose. An old roommate of mine was a doper, this stuff is a very common steroid. Practically a standard substance for dopers. We are not talking about creatine or adderall here.

I'm guessing it went along the lines of: TR: Mr. Pelfrey, I understand your frustration. You've worked hard to come back from injuries and came into camp ready to compete for a starting spot. But you have you to understand, Milone is a quality pitcher too, and our only real option for a LH starter. MP: I know I can be a quality starter. What are my chances to do that here in MN? TR: Well, as the long man in the pen, you'd be the first option to jump in the rotation if somebody goes down or falters. Assuming you pitch well in the pen of course. If we can't find a spot for you, I'll look around for another team that has an opening. However, you are under contract to pitch for this club and we have invested a great deal of money in you. You're a professional and I know you'll do your best regardless of whether you're starting or coming out of the pen. MP: Ok. Good enough for me. Glad we're on the same page.

Branch Rickey's Little Blue Book... quotes and stories... got it when I was in H.S., still one of my top 10 or 20 favorite books. He was an amazing man, no doubt, and a revolutionary GM.

That is hiliarious! I'd love to hear his take on March Madness.

But his average (and slugging) were down largely because teams did a better job positioning against him.

Wow. Only 2 comments for our 3rd manager in nearly 30 years? Of course, everybody knew it would be Molitor because "his time has come" and he's a local legend. It's hard not to drink the kool-aid, but there are two things that bug me about installing Molitor (which I hope I'm completely wrong about). 1. Meet the new boss, same as the old boss. I'm sure he'll bring his own personality to managing, but even if we get a new pitching coach its mostly a continuation of the old guard. The FO says they are sick of losing and we can't keep doing what we've been doing, so I'm a little nervous that they've chose to do exactly that. and the biggest nagging fear I have... 2. Molitor was the guy largely responsible for player development and instilling fundamentals. Aside from the dreadful pitching, the biggest knock on this team has been the lack of fundamentals and lack of development of some players. Santana and Vargas were good this year, but Arcia continued to have the same poor approach at the plate. Molitor says they work with guys on this throughout the year, but the results were not very good. Whether it's Joe Mauer not being able to pull a ball in the air or Chris Colabello standing 4 feet off the plate for 3 weeks before Tony Oliva pointed that out... these are things that are on Molitor, Steinbach, and Brunansky as much as Gardy. More than payroll or free agent pitchers or high velo relievers, what this team REALLY needs is a better player development plan. You've got to improve on players' weaknesses as they advance because at the MLB level the competition can exploit those weaknesses.

Well JB, if this is development, I'd say the pace is glacial. I had to chuckle reading really hardcore fans so happy to see the team essentially say no comment to the question, "are you doing any in-depth analysis?" This isn't the A's or the Cardinals here, the Twins have been one of the worst teams in the league for the last 3 years. The poster who mentioned the quant hedge fund manager was (comedic) gold. Of course he wouldn't give away his model, it works! Why are the Twins guarding their methods so closely? C'mon, their nickname with the local media is 'dumpster fire.' Ok, I'm being a little glib, of course we don't want to tell the opposition how we prepare to beat them (exactly). However, this team has been TERRIBLE and spent a lot of money last offseason but got the same result this year. So, yeah, I think it's time to show your work a bit. But the issue of disclosure is not on Jack, that's on TR. Jack can't talk about what TR doesn't allow him to. However, compare the piece on the Pirates (who have been a very good team in maximizing talent) versus this one on the Twins (who have really seen poor returns on free agent investment and done poorly on trades/etc in recent years). It says a lot.

I agree with Boom Boom. Surely it's no coincidence that this team has been awful the last several years and the baseball equivalent of cheerleaders seemed like a legit way to hold onto viewership. The execution has been something else entirely. With the fatherly approach of Bremer and Co. the TV promo's are extremely awkward. Honestly, how do you not cringe during those if you're in the Twins media relations department? There is no doubt in my mind it is turning off more people than it... turns on (let's just say "keeps interested). I'm fine with the Erin Andrews of the world, I think their involvement is great. But the FSN Girls are another thing entirely... and this is the 18-34 male demographic speaking. If these young ladies are supposed to be role models for young girls, then the Twins have badly missed the mark. If they are supposed to attract men to club events at bars/etc. that's a different thing. Either way, they are not succeeding and news flash... you can't take both approaches simutaneously. Overall, I think the team's marketing department does a good job, but this thing is a #fail.

Really interesting to read the comments here. Lots of people electing not to renew their season tickets, and the Delta/Budweiser thing is really big. Do we know how much money that is per year? I too rely on stubhub and other sites to get tickets. I haven't really done the research to see how much I'm saving, but I'd guess it's significant. Plus, then I can go to games when I have time, not when I have to. I won't care about whether this team wins or loses until A. they change the leadership or B. put together a wipeout team, and even then I'll be skeptical. We had some really good teams in the mid-2000's, but we always fell short. I suspect a lot of that had to do with TR and coaching. I'll still watch a few games on TV (mostly to see the young hitters, I've watched Mauer flip enough singles to left, I'm good on that). And I'll probably attend 2-3 games a year if I can get tickets at a steep discount.

That's probably fair. And it's not realistic to expect that any coach will get the best out of every player, and that none of them will go on to have success in other organizations. But again, what is the process for improvement? That's what I'm more interested in. TR hasn't given Andy much to work with, there's no question about that. But they've also been very, very bad. So there's plenty of blame to go around on the pitching side, from the GM to the coaches to the players. For me, the most outrageous moment was last year when Colabello was mired in a horrible slump and didn't turn it around until a call from Tony Oliva (or maybe it was Carew) told him to move closer to the plate. That is practically unforgiveable and it speaks volumes about a much deeper issue.

But is that because Hughes is having such a stellar FIP year? I mean, he has been awesome this year and better than his ERA suggests, but there's still four other guys going out there. Gibson has been solid too, but I wouldn't say he has been way better than his ERA (without looking at his FIP).

There is zero accountability in this organization. Loyalty is one thing, but it has to be loyalty with a REASON. Like they are loyal because "Gardy and Andy have been busting their ass to squeeze every last drop of production out of this roster"... c'mon - that ain't happening! They've been phoning it in for years. The only reason they ever had any success at all is because of what this organization does really well: Scout. We are better than most other organizations at finding rough-cut diamonds in the wild. And from the late 1990's to the early/mid 2000's, we almost strung enough of them together to get a ring. Or maybe we just got lucky, in any case a good jeweler knows if you want to build a winning timepiece you have to eventually fill in around those pieces. Painfully extending the metaphor, you can't make a 10 carat ring with five 1-carat diamonds. And you've got to have somebody who can bring it all together. Gardy/Andy are way, way over their head in today's game. (Some of the) Other teams probably know twice as much about the Twins as those two. Exhibit: Worley. I have zero faith in the Twins until - like the Vikings - there is some management installed that will create some accountability. And I'm not just saying that because they are 1-0... it's been Zimmer's MO from day one. The Twins keep doing failing the same way, year after year. I like loyalty, we all do, but not when its so clear that this group is phoning it in. Pretty soon it becomes nepotism or cronyism, whatever you want to call it. But if I'm so wrong about this, and there is magic happening behind the scenes - I'd LOVE(!) to be proven wrong. Tell us about the 2 hour film sessions and opponent dossiers. Show us the (specific) development plan+journal for even 4 players. If you've been this terrible for this long, it's not unreasonable to start checking people's work. Show me the comprehensive and systematic plan for improvement and I'll tell everyone I know the Twins aren't worth writing off.... but that stuff ain't happening. It's fly by the seat of your pants, squint and spit, decision making. That is NOT worth my time or my money. The Twins franchise will always be number one in my heart, but I'm waiting for it to get its sh** together before I start to actually care. And it's not about the talent on the field - it's about the process. Because without that, even a talented team will fall short. The Vikings have absolutely proven that.

Scott Van Slyke would be awesome. He is a great hitter. I hope TR has at least inquired.

They probably won't have to worry about this until next June or July. Let's see how the rest of this year goes and where Plouffe and Sano are at come next year. It would be pretty hard for Sano to do better than Plouffe defensively this year, he is one of the best at barehanding bunts. Plus, who knows if Sano's arm will be ready to handle 3B. Lots of unanswered questions. I want to see Sano ASAP too, but unless he has a monster spring it's probably not going to happen until June-ish. You could give him some reps in LF this spring, just in case they're both raking and we need to squeeze them in the lineup.

Well said.

Chummin'... But seriously, have you seen him pick it? Way better than that other guy.

He's probably just getting tired. Let's cross our fingers, but its the time of the year that it wouldn't be surprising to have some dead-arm stuff going on. Probably just needs rest. This is different than the stuff we heard about Sano's elbow late last summer. Totally understandable for Stewart to be fatigued but I remember thinking something was wrong when Sano was having trouble throwing last year. That shouldn't happen to a position player for an extended period of time at this point in the year.

Well, I guess I disagree about Mauer. He is having a sub-par year, that was my point. I don't expect him to hit 30 HRs but he needs to be around 290/370/440 in order to help the offense in any meaningful way. His contract is tough because it limits the amount of money we have available to do other deals. I'm not mad about him 'not earning his money', I don't care, it's not my money. But it does suck that Mauer will hamstring us financially for years to come. I'll still root for him and with the concussion, he's where he needs to be, but that doesn't change facts. I lived in Juneau for 10 years but moved back to MN last year. Been to Kodiak once. Flew over the airport twice before that. Tough weather out there.