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Everything posted by alskntwnsfn
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IDK... Garver has a wRC+ of 133 since 6/1. We need to keep building the pitching staff and Romero is a potential 1/2 type guy. We can’t move him. Realmuto is a premier catcher, no doubt, but I’d rather have the flexibility to keep or add arms and maybe try to fill one positional need heading into next year. Even though we are second in the standings there is a huge difference between the Twins and the top 4 teams in the AL right now. However, I do believe we can close a lot of ground by next year. Our roster already contains most of the hitters we’ll need to do it (they just have to rebound Sano/Buxton/Kepler or develop Kiriloff/Rooker/Gordon).
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Article: REPORT: Dozier Extension Talks Die
alskntwnsfn replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
The Twins are in a good position with Dozier. No reason to extend him now. Make a QO this offseason and they’ll be able to beat most offfers because teams will be hesitant to give up a draft pick. I do hope we can keep him though.- 29 replies
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Free Agents Who Singed for Less Than the Qualifying Offer They Rejected
alskntwnsfn commented on Andrew Thares's blog entry in Rounding Third
Moustakas signed with the Royals today for 1 year at $5.5M. Ouch. That is a huge difference from the QO he turned down.- 3 comments
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Article: Gameday: Twins Versus Gophers (Exhibition)
alskntwnsfn replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Woo! Baseball! Couple of nice pieces from Navaretto at the dish.- 28 replies
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Article: Sano Going To Let It Eat
alskntwnsfn replied to Ted Schwerzler's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
A lot is being made of Sano's weight during this ST, again. However, he was dealing with a stress frature in his shin. Wouldn't that make it hard to much of any cardio? If he was resting up to get healthy, even if that meant putting on some pounds, I'm okay with that so long as he's ready to go. I'd be inclined to be critical if he ended 2017 healthy but he wasn't. So given his talent, I'm inclined to give him a pass this year. -
Took a look back at middle infielders at AA as comps to Gordon (who posted a wRC+ of 117 in the Southern League last year and was 13/20 in SBs). Fangraphs link. One thing that really stood out was Gordon's K% versus other MI's with significant PAs. The guys that made good had a lower K%. There just isn't a precedent for a player succeeding after posting a similar OPS, wRC+, and K% as Gordon. Gordon has also benefited from a pretty high BABIP during his minor league career, likely a product of him being a fast, LH hitter. But you have to wonder if that will hold once his tendencies are subjected to the scrutiny of big league shifts. I realize that his K% was lower in previous years, but still he had nearly 600 PAs in AA last year (and was healthy all year long I believe). It's a significant sample. This is all important context, but it's past performance. There's good reason to believe he COULD become a serviceable big leaguer, but there's a lot of reason to think he may fall short of that. So, given all that, the obvious answer is to move him if we can get a good offer. If we can't, keeping him as an insurance policy for Polanco isn't a bad idea but until he shows otherwise, I don't think his name should be automatically penned into the lineup in 2019 or beyond. Again, I'm much more optimistic about some of the names further down this Top 20 list.
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I'd have Gordon further down on this list too. If he can't stick at SS, that's huge. And there's questions about how much upside there is to the bat. High floor, low ceiling seems to be the label. That's not necessarily a bad thing, but those types of players are usually readily available and we (appear) to have at least a couple better internal options (Now: Polanco/Adrianza Future: Lewis). Plus, I'm always turned off by fast players who can't steal bases efficiently. Is this a skill that can be improved as players advance? I'm not sure what history says on this, but if he can't increase his success rate then that major part of his game is much less valuable. I hope the FO is shopping him for pitching unless the Twins are sky high on his intangibles, which we as fans know next to nothing about. He has the wheels, projects to be stronger than his brother, and has pretty good contact skills. If he can improve his SB%, cut his K's just a bit, and bump up the SLG, all while developing better instincts at SS, he'd probably be a top 15 SS. That's a lot of ifs, but if the Twins truly believe he can do those things before Lewis catches up to him, then fine. A little thought experiment. Forget where Gordon was drafted and about his brother's career. Would he still be as highly regarded?
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Lots of FAs still out there. Admittedly, I haven't been following things as closely as most winters, but nonetheless here's my late winter FA wish list (in no particular order, if some are done then it doesn't make sense to do others): Jose Bautista Francisco Liriano Trade Rosario for pitching and sign JD Martinez Jake Petricka (south Metro rep!) Michael Saunders Tony Watson Jason Grilli Clay Buchholz Jake Arrieta (if the money is right)
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Article: Can The Twins Win With Dozier And Mauer?
alskntwnsfn replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Some interesting insights from Mauer's batting split data: - He far is "more productive" with men on base in terms of OPS, than with bases empty. This surprised me somewhat because he's generally posted pretty meager RBI totals for someone hitting in the middle of the order (side note: I AM NOT a guy who gets too hung up on RBI totals, but they do mean something). However, this "statistically clutch performance" is misleading, as I'll explain. - Mauer's walk rate with bases empty or with 1st base occupied is 9.7% (K/BB: 0.73). With men on but first base open: 24.9% (K/BB: 2.31). Pitchers are happy to walk him with guys on base and he's content to take the free base. Though this isn't a bad thing, it's not great either. With guys on 2nd and 3rd especially, a batted ball, a base hit, and a walk are very different things. Quite often, Mauer's at-bats with RISP result in a passing of the baton to the next hitter. But it's also a chicken/egg thing, perhaps he's being walked more because there's been less of a threat hitting behind him. Virtually all of Mauer's additional OPS with guys on base is due to him taking more walks. This underscores the problem this lineup has had for quite awhile, aside from Sano, we haven't had a big-time hitter to knock in runners behind Mauer. However, the size of Mauer's contract and his move to first has hindered the team's ability to sign/install that type of hitter. Mauer's walk rate is slightly higher than Miguel Cabrera and Mike Trout with runners on (but first base open), but it's close. So his performance isn't too unusual, but the differential is likely larger. As TD nation has said repeatedly, Mauer is better suited to the #2 hole, but the FO is paying him like a #3 hitter, so that is probably where he will remain. -
Article: Breaking Byron Buxton
alskntwnsfn replied to Parker Hageman's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Awesome post Parker! The Seinfeld reference is spot on. We're all sick about hearing the pilot tell us we are flying around another weather pattern, when will we get there!? -
Article: Breaking Byron Buxton
alskntwnsfn replied to Parker Hageman's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Poor contact has to do with one of the following: a poor swing plane poor timing The worse your swing plane, the harder it is to be on time with the swing. Focusing on hitting groundballs will probably make contact harder, not easier. Buxton is usually too early, I think he needs to just let the ball get deeper. I know that's not a new theory, but it's true... and it's easier said than done, takes a lot of practice and repetition. http://www.efastball.com/images/hitting-ted-williams-swing-plane.jpg -
Article: Twins Draft Blayne Enlow, Seven More
alskntwnsfn replied to Jeremy Nygaard's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Those are valid points. It's too bad the reds didn't give him the chance to start. I suspect his value would have been much higher, but that is obviously a hypothetical at this point.- 352 replies
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Article: Twins Draft Blayne Enlow, Seven More
alskntwnsfn replied to Jeremy Nygaard's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
What are you talking about? He had 13.8 K/9 and just 4 walks in 28 innings. I'm not saying I want him in the field. He throws 100 mph. Just take him. How many teams wish they had paid for Aroldis Chapman when they had the chance?- 352 replies
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Article: Twins Draft Blayne Enlow, Seven More
alskntwnsfn replied to Jeremy Nygaard's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
For posterity, Greene was the guy I wanted at 1-1 and it wasn't even close. He will be an absolute stud.- 352 replies
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Article: McKay Says No Way
alskntwnsfn replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Fun game. My bottom five would be: Tampa Cincinnati Miami Oakland Detroit- 114 replies
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Article: Twins Draft Blayne Enlow, Seven More
alskntwnsfn replied to Jeremy Nygaard's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
The .377 average and 4 HRs scare me. I know HS stats aren't supposed to mean anything, but they are relevant when you get over 220 ABs and go 1-1. There was a rare phenom arm and a couple really good college pitchers sitting there. In case you are wondering Jeter hit over .500 all 3 years of HS and struck out once his senior year.- 352 replies
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Article: Twins Draft Blayne Enlow, Seven More
alskntwnsfn replied to Jeremy Nygaard's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I've seen tape of Carlson's slider. That is good enough for me. It's a tremendous pitch.- 352 replies
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Article: Twins Draft Blayne Enlow, Seven More
alskntwnsfn replied to Jeremy Nygaard's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Put me down as disappointed they passed on Carlson. He seems like an advanced version of Leach, so why not take the local kid?- 352 replies
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Article: Twins Draft Blayne Enlow, Seven More
alskntwnsfn replied to Jeremy Nygaard's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
This whole talk of picking Lewis to save money is nonsense because the new slotting system drastically reduces teams ability to 'save' money for later. He was obviously the guy they wanted. I've only seen a few clips but it's pretty hard to get excited about a guy who many think will end up in the OF and isn't universally considered a great hitter. I mean he hit under .400 in HS and knocked just 4 HR with metal bats. I get the CA competition is good but still. Jeter comps are nice and all, but there's probably a dozen guys each year fit that mold. To paraphrase another GM, if he's such a good hitter why doesn't he hit good? So he's going to hit when he plays for us?- 352 replies
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Article: Game Thread: Twins@Rangers 4/24/17 7:05PM
alskntwnsfn replied to Riverbrian's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Jason Vargas? -
Article: Greene Impresses Twins Brass
alskntwnsfn replied to Jeremy Nygaard's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
This comment reminds me of when everyone always gushed about the numbers Delmon Young put up, for his age, in the minors. Yes, he may have been 20 or 21 when putting up monster numbers, but for his body, he was probably closer to 25. Most players reach their physical peak around 27, but it's clear Delmon's physical peak was probably 4 or 5 years early. That's not to say Greene will be like Young in any regard, but yeah he's developmentally advanced for his age. We wouldn't be talking about him if he wasn't.