Cris E

Usage of batters is changing, and the number of batters qualifying for the batting title from all positions has been falling recently. Here are how many have had 502 PA over the past 25 years. 2022 131 2021 133 2015 143 2010 152 2005 150 2000 166 1996 148 (95 was a lockout year) The trend is downward, for whatever reason. More injuries? More young cheap players being cycled through rosters? More teams finding ways to rest players to avoid injuries? I think it may be the last two, as there's more and more matchup data available to know when to sit someone, and the universal DH is proving to be both a good way to manage playing time and save some money on expensive one-dimensional hitters.

Right now he's coming off injury, doesn't have a clear place in the depth chart and needs to gain some experience and prove his defensive worth. If his wrist is better then let him hit for a few months and build value. We'll know our SS situation by then as well so he'll know if he's training to become a SS, 3B or CF or whatever. He can still be shipped out at the deadline if it comes to that, but right now is the wrong time.

I voted for him back when I didn't necessarily agree with him, because I knew what he was going to say on almost every topic and I knew he would say it. Now the kowtowing to the party line leaves almost no room for personal principles, no issue is allowed to be more important than the Monday morning agenda from Party Central. Anyone remember fiscally conservative Democrats? Anti-abortion Republicans? Pro-life Dems? Gay Republicans? They used to have cool names like Blue Dog Democrats and Log Cabin Republicans and now they're just shushed and sent back to study their notes. The extremists in both parties have created a free fire zone across the middle that's wiped out moderates of all stripes, to the detriment of the country. That's where we need to see some lanterns these days.

That's a bit rich, but $35m+$21m is within reach. I'd sign Correa and Bassitt in a minute if we could get them for $55m a season. If that sounds horrifying recall how much money teams make from the main MLB wellhead before receiving any local cable, ticket or stadium revenue. It's a lot. Forbes estimates that in 2021 the Twins Revenues were about $268m with a payroll around $144m. That missing $120m is the cost of paying minor leaguers, coaches, and execs plus a little left over for profit. The Forbes numbers may not be perfect, but even if they are off by 50% there's room for Correa.

Your point is valid, but you should be providing a little more context. Flag them if they have less than a full year of experience, and then show how far last year deviated from their career baseline. There were some like MIranda, Ober and Ryan that were revelations, others like Winder, Contreras and Garlic that were just young, and others like Correa, Grey and Leon just doing their thing for good or ill. But several important members of your Below guys were injured last year and it trashed their production. Polanco, Jeffers and Kepler in particular (plus a bunch of guys that are missing completely like Lewis, AK and Larnach) were broken and tried playing through things that (in retrospect) should have been treated. We do need to improve our offense (and glovework) but we should expect better from at least three players at important positions next spring. Replacing Gary Sanchez is important. Retaining or replacing Correa is important. But 2B and 3B and at least one OF corner should be better. We need two or three fixes, not five.

I'm convinced these numbers prove we'd have lost 170, maybe 180 games without him.

Roy Hobbs didn't quite die, but I still have reservations. He's got at least one kid now and I'm not certain he'd come back for just any team.

Rodon or Bassitt, but nothing crazy. Put out a fair offer for 3+1 at $20m to Bassitt or 4+1 at $25m to Rodon and see if they get accepted. Someone may offer more money and more years, but those are solid offers to established guys. I don't want to be the team paying $27m for an age 39 season spent in rehab.

Not sure what you're getting at here. Was signing those two a bad move or not? Mauer and Correa are both serious HoF candidates, so I think signing them would be a good move to fill seats. I'm honestly not clear on what you're saying. To the topic at hand I'd say that teams don't come together all at once, and so you fix different areas in different ways depending on how seriously you're trying to complete in any given year. In a perfect world you can draft and develop kids into aces, but in a world where you're near the playoffs (finished 1 or 2 all but once 2015-2020) you can't always wait for the kids to fill that #4 hole. You replace time with money and take a couple risks on guys that know what needs doing even if they aren't as good at it as they used to be. The bad baseball in 2021 and the rash of injuries in 2022 dumped a lot of development time in the laps of a lot of guys who missed huge stretches of games due to Covid, so we suddenly have a lot of young arms maturing at once. We can afford to be pickier about the back end of the rotation these days and I expect we will be.

Even with Correa the infield defense with Miranda and Arraez would not be good. Polanco may not be great at 2B, but he is better than Arraez. I would only trade Polanco for something specific and special (TOR catcher, FLA pitching) not just to avoid salary or a potential logjam at 2b. None of our prospects are so good that we need to get him out of their way, and we could have used his bat last year when everyone else went to pieces. He is valuable because he is good. Let's see where everyone else shakes out this spring before we start throwing good players over the side. Here's a thought: Gordon is coming into his own and plays a fair CF and 2B. What's his value right now? He may be worth almost as much given the thinness in the CF market.

Rodon is not signing a 3/75 this winter. There's just too much money chasing too few studs. But I like most of the rest of your choices. I might trade for the catcher from TOR rather than go FA, and I would take a run at Correa, but I think he'll sign early for a lot of money and the rest of the dominoes will fall as you expect.

If you can get Rodon for 5/125 then go ahead, but I don't think that'll be enough. Same with Correa at 7/245 or Judge at 10/350. There are a lot of teams with a lot of money chasing very few top names this winter, and most of the teams that hold these FAs are probably going to take a solid run at keeping them. But here's the thing: last year was unreal for pitching injuries in MN. We have a decent starting rotation coming back that was not playing at the end of the season (Maeda, Mahle, Paddock with Winder and Ober barely back to appear in October.) So there are a half dozen good arms for #3-#5, with Grey likely to be a good #2 for as long as he holds up and the only real job opening as a playoff #1. We can get along without that one until June if the rest of the team shows up and plays. So get the bullpen straight, find a catcher, fill SS, maybe find that ace. I'd offer Correa $35m for seven and see if he bites, I'd try 5/125 on Rodon (and maybe keep half an eye on Sean Manaea's market.) Catcher should come from TOR and maybe trade for the SP from Florida. And then I'd really look hard at who in our org needs to move from starter to the pen: who is under-performing, who needs a change of scenery, who can't stay healthy, who can't develop that next pitch to make them really effective. There's a world of opportunity here for a couple guys who want to take the chance of being the next Duran. (And there's a world of opportunity here for someone to write a piece on how to find those guys.)

In looking at the 2018 minor leaguers we're getting to a place where the missing 20 and 21 seasons are really going to affect these young guys a lot. Someone on the cusp or breaking out in 19 and then sitting for a couple years is not going to develop in a normal fashion, so collapses like those mentioned should be expected. The trick is finding the guys who could handle the gap years and still move up when the games resumed.

I'd be OK waiting til the trade deadline to find that ace IF they went about their business at other positions with some alacrity. Fix SS, find a catcher, get a training staff in and get them working with the team immediately. (I think a lot of last season's injury problems could have been linked to players not being allowed to talk to staff during the lockout and being left on their own to prepare for the season.) There really aren't any great FA starting pitching options out there, especially if you're considering Rodon in an org with our medical issues. So get a new bullpen arm or two, shift some dreck around, sell Maeda on the notion of becoming Duran so Duran can be the closer, and then start laying the groundwork for a pitching trade. They pulled off a couple last year that failed for injury reasons, but they have to stay after it. Sonny Grey throwing 170 IP should be the threshold. The kids are coming along, but so many players are missing those lost and shortened seasons right now that we have to expect some fits and starts in their development. 2023 could be pretty surprising in that regard.

Duran used to start in the minors and was not the pitcher you see today. Shortening up his innings to let him go max effort really changed what he does. Do not mess with it, just hand him the ball late.

Just a reminder that the American League batted .242 this season. Numbers are not what they used to be.

I think he's just another poor option on the long list of names that indicate how important it is to sign Correa. In 13 years in the bigs he's never played anywhere other than SS, so I guess I'd need to know what you plan on doing with him if Lewis takes the job in July (or if he's suddenly fat and slow.) There are already other meh secondary options around the infield, so how valuable is he once Royce returns?

You need a middle infielder that can play a lot. Lewis won't be around for the first half, and Polanco is hardly guaranteed to stay healthy anymore. Gordon should be playing CF 2-3 days a week to cover for Buxton, so he won't he available full time either.

Toronto has three catchers that need to play next year, so they're in a spot where there's pressure to trade someone. It's likely be Jansen, and they'd probably want at least a *big* young arm back since they are a solid 92 win team and he's both young and still improving.

I don't think they expected to contend in 2022. They were going to roll into the year with a very young rotation, Buxton, Kepler and some kids in LF, a 25 year old catcher, a lot of youth in the pen, that young SS from TEX or Lewis at SS, etc. Dumping Donaldson got them Sanchez and Urshela, but they only picked up Grey, Pagan, Paddock, after Correa landed in their laps. I think on January 1 they still thought this was a year to get the kids broken in and 2023 was the target season. EDIT: Just for the record I do NOT expect them to be in on Judge, but he would be a fun add in Kepler's role.

Some points: Part of the lack of fundamentals is due to having a gaggle of youngsters running around that should have been in the minors this year. If we didn't suffer that incredible number of injuries, many of these kids would have spent the summer in St Paul or even further down. Now if you want to complain about why no one is St Paul or Cedar Rapids is watching their Tom Emanski tapes I'll be right there with you, but complaining about Gilberto Celestino or Ronny Henriquez not being ready is disregarding their real timelines. Rule changes next year are going to make infielders play their own positions without a lot of buddies running over to help them. (Probably - you never know if we'll try to line up our middle infielders at the center line and have them dash over to a shift at the last second. Let's hope not.) That means guys with poor mobility, like say Polanco if he's still got the bum wheel, might be at a disadvantage. I don't think this will matter much since it'll only be a return to the way the game was played 5-10 years ago. But you never know. Also we should expect more base stealing, at least from other teams even if we don't increase our own running. But we should increase our attempts since they were laughably low and there are a couple fast guys on this roster who might be good at it, and we really never put that pressure on other teams to even consider defending against it. The 40 man roster construction is kind of muddled right now. There are good looking players at most positions, but several key ones are broken (Buxton, Polanco) or not ready yet (Miranda, Wallner) or both (Lewis). I kind of don't think they expected to be very good this year, what with committing to such a young staff in addition to apparently planning on going with Lewis at SS. But Correa showing up forced them to take a swing at things while he was around, so they picked up a bunch of controlable parts that would still be useful in 2023. I think next year is when they expected all those first and second year guys like Jeffers and Arraez and Ryan to be done learning and start winning. Leading the Central for three months was gravy. So what do they have? Correa not staying is a big hole, not a big surprise. I think Lewis can probably handle the job, but he's been hurt a lot so even if he was expected to be ready in March I'd still want a 80 game SS on hand. Buxton will always need a caddy, but I like that job for Gordon. It'll give him something to do for 30-40 games (or more) as a base for the rest of his utility appearances. I like his speed and attitude so I want him out there 100 games as long as his bat doesn't regress too much. We need a defensive catcher to pair with Jeffers. He hasn't thrown anyone out since high school and the league rules are going to encourage more running next year. If Polanco can come back healthy I like him, but if he can't we should trade him and park Arraez at 2B. Urshela at 3b and Miranda at 1B should be locks. The outfield is going to depend on who is healthy. They should dump a couple lefty hitters to fill needs and get one right handed bat, but other than that there are a lot of parts to sort. They have a lot of good #2-#4 pitchers, but they do need an ace. Sonny Grey has always had a rep as a guy who misses starts, so it's not him. If they can't find one now it's the sort of thing that can be done at the trade deadline. The pen could use a guy like Fulmer and one or two more anonymous flame throwers. Maeda still thinks he's a starter but he doesn't have the health for the role and would be great in Duran's setup role, where he can go multiple innings. Duran gets the fancy closer hat. Pagan might be worth salvaging or he might be trade bait. Relievers are volatile and someone might think they can fix his 96 with movement (and it could even be the Twins.) They could be good next year, or they could be injured again. They might walk away with the Central again or other teams could play the whole season and not concede everything before Father's Day. A new good front of rotation starter, some luck with the missing wounded (Mahle, Paddock, Maeda and Alcala just for openers) and some health up and down the lineup and they could be pretty good. The only thing I will say is that Falvey and Co do like to mix things up, so I expect some unexpected new faces in camp next spring.

It's not official yet, so he could still return to the Twins for next year. (Don't laugh, there are lots of scenarios. Most revolve around terrible accidents where he can't play next season, but I've got a Brittany Griener version where he's arrested in Russia but still collects the money.)

You know what the difference is? An injury or two,

Yes, but only until Jeffers returns, and only when Sanchez needs a rest. Just enjoy the fresh new look: he's a solid defensive catcher who has thrown out a runner in the past five years.

It appears LSU was charging hard. In the Tweets up above it's reported his salary went from $350k to $750k, so that maaaaay have factored into his decision.