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clone52

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Everything posted by clone52

  1. clone52
    Probably right. That website b under values Cabrera. Everything I've read says that the Marlins need OF and that they are looking to compete. I know the NL East is stacked, but the Marlins have pieces and if they didn't think they could complete in the next 3 to 4 years, they would probably shop Alcantera in order to reload for 5-6 years down the line.
  2. clone52
    Lopez for Rodriguez straight up is ridiculous. There is no way you can find a trade even close to that ever. 1.5 years of Mahle cost Steer, Encarnacion-Strand and Halljer. Steer is pretty similar to Rodriguez, maybe a little lower rated. Lopez is a little better than Mahle and you get him for 2 years instead of 1.5. Its just silly to think Rodriguez is "too much" for Lopez.
  3. clone52
    baseball trade values says this works. Pablo Lopez for Max Kepler, Josh Winder, Emmanuel Rodriguez and the competitive balance pick. I would pull the trigger. Edward Cabrera for Max Kepler and Nick Gordon. I would pull the trigger on this too. Lopez and Cabrera for Kepler, Winder, Kiriloff, Gordon, Rodriguez and the competitive balance pick.
  4. clone52
    1. Agree, but don't underrate his clubhouse presence. Sounds like his mentorship really helped Miranda. 2. He does want to be here. If the Twins had offered 12/350 like the Giants did, I bet he picks the Twins. If the Twins had offered 12/315 like the Mets did, I bet he picks the Twins. The fact that he chose more long term security and money than average money per year doesn't mean he didn't like Minnesota. 3. BS. When was the last time a big time contract had someone who wanted to renegotiate in baseball? Does it ever happen? Is Mike Trout begging to get a contract like Aaron Judge. 4. Its more like your hooker dropping you, trying some other guys and then coming back. There is money involved. A personal relationship typically doesn't involve money or a contract. At least for most, maybe your relationships do. 5. It is really weird. Definitely a risk, but you gotta take some risks.
  5. clone52
    I wouldn't worry about signing those young guys. They are under control for a long time. Larnach, Kiriloff, Duran, Ryan, Ober won't be free agents until 2028. Lewis, Miranda, Winder, Sands, Woods-Richardson won't be a free agent until 2029. Lee, Martin, Julian, Rodriguez, Prielipp won't be a free agents until 2030 or later. Correa will only be making $30M in 2029 and $25M in 2030 if he's still around. By 2029, the Twins payroll should increase up to $160M at minimum I would guess. That still leaves a lot of money for retaining their best young players. Plus, the probably try to sign some of them up for extensions early, which would mean it wouldn't be like they are signing them all to $30M/year contracts of their own.
  6. clone52
    It does give them a ton of options now to bolster the roster, either during the offseason or before the trade deadline. All of the OFs could be available for the right deal (Kepler, Larnach, Kiriloff, Wallner, even Gallo). Polanco, Arraez or Miranda could go and they wouldn't have a huge hole. Even prospects like Lewis, Lee, Martin or Julian become more available theoretically. I think they could put together a deal for about any SP that became available if they thought it moved the needle.
  7. clone52
    accelerate: to increase in velocity.
  8. clone52
    Just go with Nick Nelson's idea. I don't care about the opt outs at all. Twins would have been thrilled with him for 3 years at 105M, so if they offer him an opt out after year 3 or 4, who cares? And if he stinks and stays, how is that any different than a contract with no opt outs? Its not at all. And he's going to have a no trade clause no matter who signs him, so complaining about that is pointless.
  9. clone52
    Sign Correa Trade for Alcontera, Lopez or some young high end pitcher. Would Lewis, Varland and Sabato get you Lopez? Sign Archer for the bullpen and SP depth if needed. Sign a decent catcher to pair with Jeffers. Maybe add OF depth if you can afford it. Could probably live with Buxton, Kepler, Kiriloff, Larnach, Wallner and Gordon. Injuries just make me nervous.
  10. clone52
    Rodon's contract would have been a disaster. San Fran would expect a bigger payout because he also has a year and half, but he will opt out in 2023, unless he sucks or gets hurt. So the Twins would either have a high cost hurt/crappy SP in 2023, or no SP in 2023.
  11. clone52
    He mashes. He is also young and can improve. Plus, I am talking about a scenario where the Front Office decides the can't compete this year. Twins have a lot of players who need a spot in the lineup and Urshela isn't one. When healthy, Lewis, Larnach, Kiriloff and Miranda should be regulars.
  12. clone52
    Fair on Sanchez. Kepler would disappoint fans and they probably wouldn't do it with Larnach hurt. Urshela is expendable. 3B is Miranda's spot. They could even sell on Urshela and trade for a DH and improve the team.
  13. clone52
    I'm curious as to the trade values of the trades so far. Are people overpaying per the values you were using? I'd do any of those trades except #3. I kinda wonder if the Twins go into a mini-selloff mode if they think they are out of it. I doubt they pull off a Correa blockbuster at a risk of alienating the entire fan base, but they have some pieces they could trade that aren't long term losses. Not sure if they'd get much back, but Urshela, Sanchez, Kepler and any RP not named Duran come to mind.
  14. clone52
    Might be a very astute deal for them. They won't keep Hader after this year. Rogers probably bounces back and gives them a great 2 months. I know nothing about Lamet, but internally, Devin Williams is ready to take over as closer and Boxburger, Miner and Gustave have been really good.
  15. clone52
    I hope it turns out well long term, but my take is not aging well.
  16. clone52
    Buy 2 or 3 relief pitchers. Get Castillo, Mahle or the A's started. Potentially trade Urshela to free up 3b for Miranda or Steer.
  17. clone52
    Go compare Paddack to Kyle Gibson. First 3 years are very similar in results (ERA, FIP, etc). Paddack started his career 3 years younger than Kyle Gibson. Paddack had way more strikeouts and way fewer walks than Gibson. Gibson really took a leap in his 5th year, 4th year was still a struggle. Gibson was a higher draft pick, but both were in the minors as highly rated prospects. Paddack broke into the big leagues 3 years earlier than Gibson and has a lot better stuff it seems. At a minimum, this seems like 1 year Taylor Rogers for 2-3 years of good Kyle Gibson and a 2 years of a serviceable to good RP. I mean, there is a chance that Paddack and Pagan are more valuable to the Twins this year than Rogers would have been. Not much worse than 50/50 I'd say. Long term, this was a fantastic trade for the Twins. Honestly, this might even make Correa more likely to stick around. If the Twins had picked up Mannaea instead and gotten into the playoffs but not made the World Series, would Correa stick around? Rogers would be leaving, Mannaea would be gone, Now, if Paddack improves and Pagan regains his Tampa form, you are looking good in 2023. Gray, Maeda, Paddack, Ryan, best rookie RP has the makings of a great rotation. You only need to hit on one of the rookies. If more of them hit, you've got some great trade chips (not just them, but Paddack himself could be a great trade chip) Duran, Alcala, Tampa Pagan could be a great backend of the bullpen.
  18. clone52
    And lose both Manaea and Rogers at the end of the season. This is a great trade long term for a slight risk to 2022. No brainer.
  19. clone52
    Not to mention, you would never pair up two blue chip trade pieces in a single trade. 9 times out of 10 you would get more for them in 2 separate trades.
  20. clone52
    Yeah, there goes that benefit. And I'm not pushing their agenda, nor do I agree with it. Its just a fact that the Twins effectively have to compete with their own self imposed salary cap.
  21. clone52
    Another potential benefit of this trade. $3M savings on payroll. We don't know the exact limit the owners have given the front office, but that does free up money for the front office to play with in other deals.
  22. clone52
    Man, you'd think after a few years with Baldelli and this front office, fans would look outside the box. The Twins aren't going to have a 5 man rotation this year. Its going to be something weird, no doubt. Joe Ryan has never pitched more than 123 innings. Bailey Ober has never pitched more than 125 innings. Winder has never pitched more than 125 innings. Balazovich has never pitched more than 100 innings. Obviously Gray will go every 5th day. Bundy can go every 5th day. Ryan and Ober might start going every 5th day, but they will wear down. Paddock is way better with an extra day of rest. Ober was incredible the first time through the opener. Baldelli would really manage this team with Openers, then starters going 3-5 innings, then go to the bullpen. Yeah, losing Rogers sucks, but if the bullpen without him is going to prevent a successful season, then keeping him isn't going to turn them into a World Series team. Obviously they are going to go with a Closer by committee. They already started doing this with Rogers, by pitching him in the high leverage situations. With Duffy, Alcala, Pagan, you have 3 guys who have had success in high leverage situations in teh past. Stashak has been great at times,b ut not consistant. Joe Smith seems solid. Duran and Jax are a wildcards. If Archer rebounds and the young starters are solid, then Paddock could be a really good bullpen piece. Thielbar, Romero, Coulombe and Romera are depth (and expendable if someone needs to get added to the 40 man). Getting value from Rooker makes sense. If you need to add Garlick, you now drop your lowest rung RP off the 40 man.
  23. clone52
    If they can't win with this Pen, then Taylor Rogers wasn't going to be the savior that allowed them to win with this Pen.
  24. clone52
    seems like this guys got a great shot to be a good reliever.
  25. clone52
    No downside either then.
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