Dman

Projected Starter: José Miranda
Likely Backup: Kyle Farmer
Depth: Donovan Solano, Willi Castro, Elliot Soto
Prospects: Brooks Lee, Jose Salas, Austin Martin, Yunior Severino
THE GOOD
It already seems safe to say Miranda is either going to be a good hitter or a great hitter. The type of hitting prowess we've seen on display over the past two years doesn't happen by accident. His ability to mix huge pull power with a penchant for going the other way give him a balanced offensive attack that yields consistent results.
It's yet to be seen if the run-producing monster we saw in Miranda's scorching June and July as a rookie (.329/.373/.557) was more emblematic of what to expect than his pedestrian August and September (.261/.332/.378) but there's little question the kid is going to carry weight offensively.
Defense is another question. Miranda lacks the quickness, agility, and arm strength to be anything resembling a lock to stick at third, as we'll discuss. But he's hardly a lost cause there. He's got a good build for the position and made several slick plays at the hot corner in 2022. 
Even if he's not long for the position, Miranda provides crucial value to the Twins as long as he can hold his own at third, allowing the team to rotate additional quality bats through the first base and DH positions. This can provide a key competitive advantage that shows up in team results. 
Do we think it's a coincidence that of the top 10 individual finishers in wOBA at third base last year, nine were in the playoffs?
THE BAD
As a rookie, Miranda made only 27 starts at third base, compared to 69 at first base and another 20 at DH. That seems telling. It's not like the Twins were abundant in great third base options, giving 131 starts there to Gio Urshela, whom they liked enough to trade for nothing at season's end.
When he played third last year, Miranda looked pretty rough, and he's been unable to shake away that memory this spring, with a shoulder injury preventing him from playing the field. That's not considered a long-term concern, but the Twins were already contemplating backup options at third even before this flare-up. 
Though they let Urshela go, the Twins built out their depth at third considerably over the offseason, acquiring three infielders – Farmer, Solano, and Castro – with significant MLB experience. That said, any of those three would be an average-ish regular at best, so the Twins need to hope their gamble on Miranda pays off, at least for a while.
THE BOTTOM LINE
Down the line, it sure feels like this position is Lee's for the taking, which is why I have the Twins number one prospect listed in the pipeline picture here despite all of his pro reps thus far coming at shortstop. Martin or Royce Lewis could also be a factor here. Or maybe, eventually ... Carlos Correa?
The big question is how long Miranda will provide the luxury of waiting on those promising young infield talents, or Correa's eventual move off short. Will Miranda show enough improvement to convince the Twins he's viable, giving them a competitive edge in the lineup, or will they fall back on a steady-yet-unspectacular backup option?
Catch Up On Our Position Preview Series:
Position Analysis: Catcher Position Analysis: First Base Position Analysis: Second Base

The Twins are a little over halfway through spring training. One notable absence from pretend game action: Byron Buxton. The oft-injured superstar hasn’t played an inning of pretend baseball yet. The team says it’s standard operating procedure for players returning from injury. Doug Spivey is taking them at their word.
Until Thursday, March 16th.
“If he isn’t in the lineup by then I am flipping my [EXPLETIVE],” said the Eveleth pipefitter. “What if he’s out half the season? What if it’s career-ending? I’m going to freak the [EXPLETIVE] out and that is a promise.”
The Twins open the season at Kansas City on March 30th.
“By then it’ll be two weeks on the nose until the regular season,” said the 52-year-old. “Right now, I’m calm and cool. Let him work out behind the scenes, trust the process, embrace serenity. But at midnight next Thursday I’m going to run shirtless around town, weeping and wailing.”
At least one Twins expert agrees.
“I’m not conspiratorial about this at all,” said Twins Daily founder John Bonnes. “I don’t think there’s anything they’re trying to hide from us. The games aren’t as important as the rehab. He knows how to field and hit. But! If he’s not playing in a week, I will be rending garments and screaming for justice. I will drink IPAs that aren’t fruit-forward with notes of passion fruit and mango. I will lose my mind.”
Spivey says he’s noticed an uptick in internet chatter about Buxton’s absence.
“Once Correa started playing, I think everyone assumed Buxton would follow suit,” said Spivey. “And then he didn’t, and the comments sections started getting real suspicious about what was quote really happening unquote. I still think we’re fine and I have a big grin on my face for the upcoming season.
“However, I’m prepared to apologize to Reddit user frankviolamustacheride42069 if it turns out Buxton is still banged up. I was wrong to doubt you, frankviolamustacheride42069.”
The Twins face the Orioles today at 5:00pm. Buxton is not expected to play.
“I’m still not worried,” said Spivey. “Every moment spent waiting is agony, but I'm not worried.”

The Twins signed the player who may be the hardest to remember from the Washington Nationals 2019 World Series roster at bar trivia to a minor-league deal. Andrew Stevenson, 28, spent all of his 2022 season at the Nationals Triple-A affiliate, the Rochester Red Wings. He had been removed from their 40-man roster early in the season and was never called back up. 
Stevenson had spent his entire career in the Nationals organization. He made his MLB debut in 2017 and accumulated 449 plate appearances in 248 games from 2017-2021. 
His greatest asset is his defense, but Stevenson has shown flashes of offensive production at times in the minor leagues and in the big leagues. During the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, Stevenson posted a .366/.447/.732 (1.179 OPS), though it was in just 47 plate appearances. 
His 2022 season with the Red Wings was solid. He hit .279/.344/.457 (.801) with 16 home runs and 67 RBI in 135 games for the Red Wings. 
Stevenson’s addition to the Twins organization is great for any pending injuries. However, the possibility of his call-up would likely entail injuries to the other left-handed hitting outfielders including Max Kepler, Joey Gallo, Nick Gordon, Trevor Larnach, Matt Wallner, and Mark Contreras. 
The timing of the signing is interesting. Gilberto Celestino had surgery on his thumb and will miss two months while rehabbing. Plus, the plan was to let him develop in St. Paul this season anyway. Byron Buxton has yet to play this spring. Nick Gordon has been out with a high ankle sprain. Could it mean those players will be out longer than anticipated? Alex Kirilloff has also not played in a spring game yet which might mean that Joey Gallo may find himself at first base early in the season. Providing the Saints with some outfield options is also wise. 
Stevenson will likely receive nearly every day playing time with the Saints. His hitting abilities will be exciting to see against Triple-A pitching. If Stevenson ends up in a game for the Twins, hopefully, it will be due to hitting too well to ignore and not due to injuries. 
While this is just a minor-league signing, what do you think it means? Discuss in the COMMENTS below. 

There is no question about what Jhoan Duran meant to the Minnesota Twins during his rookie campaign. He immediately became one of baseball’s most dominant late-inning relievers. In 67 2/3 innings, he allowed 14 earned runs (1.86 ERA) with 89 strikeouts and 16 walks. He showed the Twins could use him in multiple situations, including closing games, multi-inning appearances, and getting the club out of jams. Duran led all AL pitchers in Win Probability Added while establishing himself as vital to the team’s long-term plans. 
Duran is entering his sophomore season so he won’t be eligible for arbitration until the 2025 season, and his earliest free agency is 2028. He has yet to make life-changing money, and that can be a good window for a club to approach a player about a long-term deal that buys out some of his free-agent years. For both sides, there isn’t a rush to do this, but these types of deals typically happen before a player reaches the arbitration process. Here are some pros and cons of getting a long-term deal for Duran. 
Pro: Cost Certainty 
Earlier in the offseason, the Mets signed Edwin Diaz to a five-year, $102 million contract, the richest reliever contract in history. He was scheduled to become a free agent, but the Mets ensured he didn’t reach the open market. It seems unlikely that the Twins will spend over $100 million to sign a relief pitcher because this front office has relied on internal options to fill bullpen roles. Other recent contracts might be more similar to what the Twins can offer to Duran. 
Entering last season, the Guardians signed Emmanuel Clase to a five-year, $20 million extension. The deal included a $2 million signing bonus and two option years (2027-28) at $10 million each. Incentives can make those option years worth $13 million, and they buy out his first two free agency years. Duran is a couple of months older than Clase, but Clase had roughly the same amount of service time as Duran when he agreed to his extension.
Pro: Investing in Bullpen
Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have shied away from multi-year contracts for relievers. Addison Reed is the only reliever signed to a multi-year contract during their tenure. The Twins gave him $16.75 million, and he was limited to 56 innings because of multiple injuries. Reed was only 29 when he signed with the Twins, and he had been one of baseball’s most reliable relievers. Unfortunately, he wouldn’t pitch again at the big-league level following the 2018 season. 
At some point, the Twins will need to invest in the bullpen. No one knows what baseball revenues will look like in five years, and Joe Pohlad has noted that he expects the team’s payroll to rise in the coming years. Minnesota is entering the 2023 season with the highest recorded payroll in team history at $157 million, which ranks 17th in baseball and second in the AL Central. Duran differs from many relievers, and the Twins should make a statement by investing in him.  
Con: Health
One of the main reasons Duran is in the bullpen is because of his health issues throughout his minor-league career. The Twins managed to keep Duran healthy during his rookie season, but there are no guarantees he will stay healthy in the future. Injuries highly impacted Minnesota’s roster last season, so the club might not want to invest significant capital into any pitcher, especially those with injury concerns. 
Reliever usage continues to evolve, and the Twins may continue using Duran in multi-inning appearances. Last season, the Twins were very careful with Duran and used him for more than an inning in 14 of his 57 appearances. It seems likely for that number to increase in the years ahead, but there are no guarantees his body can hold up to that increased workload. He has been a starter in the past, but there are scheduled rest days between appearances that aren’t guaranteed for a bullpen arm. 
Con: Age
The Twins already have Duran under team control through his age-29 season. Even if he is baseball’s best reliever during the next five seasons, do the Twins want to guarantee him money into his early-30s? Clase’s contract has team options ($10 million) with buyouts of $2 million per season. That could help the Twins to approach this contract since they could get out of the deal for a relatively small amount. 
Minnesota has been spoiled with All-Star caliber relievers in the past, like Joe Nathan, Glen Perkins, and Taylor Rogers. Duran can enter the same category, but not all relievers can be this good. Relievers tend to have a high-level performance window that only lasts a few seasons before burning out. The Twins saw this recently with Tyler Duffey, one of baseball’s best relievers for multiple seasons, before being released last season. Few relievers can be among baseball’s best for more than a few seasons. 
Can you see the Twins reaching out with a deal similar to Clase? Is the timing right for an extension or should the Twins wait until next offseason? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.
 

Projected Starter: Jorge Polanco
Likely Backup: Donovan Solano
Depth: Kyle Farmer, Nick Gordon, Willi Castro
Prospects: Edouard Julien, Jose Salas, Austin Martin, Tanner Schobel
THE GOOD
In the 2021 season, his first spent playing second base, Polanco ranked fifth among MLB players at the position with 4.2 fWAR, instantly establishing himself as an elite player at his new infield home. 
He launched 33 homers, drove in 98 runs, and was an easy choice for Twins Daily MVP. Polanco provided middle-of-the-order production from a middle-of-the-infield spot, which is a recipe for huge value. The Twins will hope to get him back there in the season ahead.
Polanco's absence in September last year was jarring: he's one of the few Twins players who has been able to avoid the injured list in his career, ranking second only to Max Kepler in plate appearances for the franchise since 2017. 
If Rocco Baldelli can reliably write Polanco's name into the lineup on a regular basis, he'll feel confident in what they're getting from second base. Polo's been a good if not great hitter almost every year, including 2022 when he was 17% above average, and he's still not yet 30. His switch-hitting ability makes him an everyday staple.
The loss of Luis Arraez during the offseason subtracted a key depth piece at second, but the Twins backfilled with a couple of veterans in Farmer and Solano, who would both be capable if uninspiring regulars at the position should Polanco miss time. 
Adding to their depth here, the Twins have a handful of near-ready infield prospects who could factor at second base in the short term – most notably Julien, who's seen plenty of time there this spring while really impressing with the bat. Martin and Royce Lewis are also realistic candidates to see time at second this year.
THE BAD
Polanco's lengthy run of durability came to halt in the latter part of the 2022 season. He didn't play after August 27th, plagued by a nagging knee tendinitis issue he couldn't shake. According to Betsy Helfand of the Pioneer Press, Polanco spent much of his offseason rehabbing the injury. 
He's been noticeably slow to ramp up in camp. The 29-year-old still hasn't appeared in a spring game, and while that's not quite yet a red flag, it will be a week or two from now. As with so many other players on this Twins team, it is the ambiguity and lack of information around Polanco's health situation that makes it so inscrutable.
What was true at first base is also true here: the Twins have enough credible depth to sustain losing their starter, but such a scenario would also entail a huge drop-off in upside. The idea of Alex Kirilloff and Polanco holding down the right side of the infield is exhilarating. Alas, we've yet to see either of them on the field this spring.
THE BOTTOM LINE
A healthy Polanco is an excellent piece to have at second base. He has played at an All-Star caliber level in two of the past three full MLB seasons and could easily be one of the team's most critical fixtures this year.
But the lower-body injuries have clearly taken their toll on Polanco, who's undergone multiple ankle surgeries in the past. He's in his last guaranteed year under contract, and as mentioned, there are several young middle infielders in this system on the rise, so the coming season could be a pivotal one for the longest-tenured Twin's future with the franchise. 
Catch Up On Our Position Preview Series:
Position Analysis: Catcher Position Analysis: First Base

Jaylen Nowlin grew up in Atlanta, Georgia. His parents encouraged him to play many sports and keep busy, so he did, and in doing so developed some great friendships. Once he reached high school, his focus turned solely toward baseball. That decision appears to be the right one for the talented lefty. 
At Westlake High School, he teamed with Lawrence Butler, one of the top prospects in the Oakland A’s organization. He had committed to West Virginia, but the A’s selected him in the sixth round of the 2018 draft. He had a solid season in the High-A Midwest League in 2022 and a strong showing in the Arizona Fall League. Butler was added to the 40-man roster last November and has a chance to debut in 2022. Through seven spring training games, he is 8-for-14 (.571) with three doubles, a triple, and a home run. 
With a few players who are now pros and several who played in college, how good was their team? Nowlin admitted, “Shockingly, not that good. We had the talent, but we definitely lacked the discipline. We had a lot of fun, but discipline was probably our weakest point.” 
In the summers, Nowlin and Butler played on a local team in regional and national Perfect Game tournaments and did very well. Former Atlanta Braves outfielder Marquis Grissom led the team. His son, Marquis Grissom, Jr., was on the team. He went to Georgia Tech and was drafted by the Nationals in 2021. Also on the team was 2022 National League Rookie of the Year, Atlanta Braves outfielder Michael Harris. Harris was called up to Atlanta from Double-A at the end of May, and he went on to use an incredible toolset to hit for average, showed his power, and showed great speed on the bases and in center field.  
Marvin Freeman spent parts of 10 seasons in the big leagues. He was the pitching coach on the team. Along with Grissom, they provided some much-needed mentorship. “Those two have really pushed my career along since I was like 14 years old. Marvin Freeman is the best pitching coach I could ever ask for. He is just a guru with it. He knows how to make everything make sense, help out, and have all the cues. Without him, I would be a different pitcher right now.” 
Nowlin recalls, “There was a lot of competition on the team and a lot of competition that we placed against.” He later said, “We did some damage in those Perfect Game tournaments. We were a deep team, pretty much an all black team. A deep team too. We had a lot of talent.” 
Jaylen Nowlin has been around excellent players for a long time. He was putting up a quality resume in his own right. He had committed in high school to Jackson State but instead went to Chipola College in Florida, one of the best junior colleges nationally every year. In 2021, Nowlin pitched in 16 games and 42 innings. He walked too many (24), but he struck out an incredible 59 batters (44% of batters faced). 
Nowlin said of the experience, “That’s where my development really took off. I struggled early on, but the pitching coach got to me, and that’s when we started hammering down on just  throwing strikes.” 
He committed to pitching at the University of Alabama-Birmingham in 2022. But then came the draft. He was at home with his parents and a few friends. It took awhile, but finally, in the 19th round, he heard his name called as the pick of the Minnesota Twins. 
He quickly signed and got to work. He pitched in just one FCL game during the season. It was during Instructs that Nowlin started to make his name known. Reports were that the lefty was hitting 97 with his fastball and showing a sharp slider. 
The southpaw started his first full minor-league season in Fort Myers. He pitched in 19 games, including 11 starts. He was part of one of the two Mighty Mussels no-hitters. 
David Festa started it. Nowlin pitched in the middle, and Hunter McMahon finished it off. “Once I came in, I just came in and threw. I had no idea that they had no hits at that point until I came out and Hunter came in. I was just going in there, doing my job, like normal. Once we finished the game and they started throwing the water everywhere, I was still pretty much confused.”
 He ended the season with three starts for Cedar Rapids before their playoff run. “I was happy to be able to make that step, just to reach another level. I just want to be able to continue to progress every year, get better as much as I can, and move up as fast as I can. So moving up to Cedar Rapids was a great experience for me, and I was very appreciative of it.” 
Nowlin has a three-pitch mix primarily. His fastball sits in the mid-90s but has reached 97 at times. He’s got a good, sharp slider, and he also throws a changeup. He says he also likes to throw a two-seamer every once in a while too. Along with stuff, Nowlin thinks he’s got the right mentality. “It’s me throwing every single pitch I have with conviction. It’s just trying to let everything eat, throw it down the middle, and see if they can hit it. I like to test batters to see if they can hit it. I try not to do too much. Keep everything simple. Shove it right down the middle and see if they can beat me.” 
Combined, he threw 71 innings and had a remarkable 111 strikeouts (14.1 K/9). He also had 36 walks, which is more than he would want and something to focus on in the offseason. Lowering that walk rate is just one of his goals heading into the 2023 season. 
And in the offseason, he spends a lot of time with his friends. “We’re a tight group. Me, Mike, Marquis, Lawrence. We’re a tight group. We work out together in the offseason. We’re always with each other, playing a game together, working out, or just chilling at each other’s houses.” 
Nowlin says he is ‘definitely a goal guy, highly goal oriented. Keep progressing. Get to Double-A as fast as I can. Move up as much as I can this year. Get better every day.” 
Jaylen Nowlin has been in Fort Myers preparing for the season since mid-January. His strikeout rate and stuff have him entering most Top 30 Twins prospect rankings. He and fellow 2021 Day 3 draft pick David Festa are two Twins pitching prospects to move up most in 2022. Can Nowlin take another big step forward in 2023?
For more Jaylen Nowlin content on Twins Daily, click here. 

Over at Fangraphs, Dan Syzmborski has released his 2023 ZiPS projections, putting the Twins at 80 wins. They are a high variance team without question, and could have looked at adding another bullpen piece, but given the overall success of the offseason, that feels a bit low. I guess having a low floor is not appreciated by ZiPS and as we saw last year, the Twins’ floor isn’t pretty. Same goes for the White Sox who are projected for only 74 wins. Cleveland comes in at 83 wins, and some projections have them closer to 90. They’re new and interesting and clearly on the rise. But are they really that good?
The title of this article will tell you what I think, although it should be noted that the Guardians played excellent ball all year in 2022 and bulldozed the Twins and White Sox in September in legitimate fashion on their way to some fun playoff moments. They were also really healthy, but more on that later.
The most surprising reason Cleveland may take a step back this year is that their starting pitching has (momentarily) dried up. Shane Bieber and Triston McKenzie are both legit and the ace argument could be made for either one, but overall this is a rotation built more on reputation than actual merit, with its combined 2022 bWAR of 12.0 ranking fourteenth in baseball, tied with the White Sox. As another point of comparison from a different era, the top four starters for the 2000 Twins posted 15.6 bWAR en route to a 69-win season.
The top two on Cleveland’s staff are amazing and better than anyone the Twins have had since Johan Santana, so don’t confuse my point. But Cal Quantrill is merely a solid number three and was a liability in the playoffs. Aaron Civale and Zach Plesac, who both looked like building blocks just a few years ago, have regressed significantly.
“But Cleveland always finds pitching.”
Yeah we’ve all heard that. But if Civale and Plesac are injured or ineffective, expect to see a lot of Konnor Pilkington, Cody Morris and Xzavion Curry to start the year. Morris looked pretty good last year, and they have good prospects coming, led by Daniel Espino and Gavin Williams. But Espino has already sustained a shoulder injury (not his first) and is doubtful to see the majors this year, while a promotion of Williams would be very aggressive. Morris is also battling an injury. In short, there seems to be a gap between what’s here at the big league level and what’s coming in 2024-2025, which is likely why both ZiPS and ESPN rank Cleveland’s starting rotation below the Twins and White Sox for 2023. Yes, you read that right.
As far as the lineup is concerned, the Guardians made a name for themselves last year by spraying the ball around, stealing bases and doing “the little things.” Steven Kwan, Amed Rosario, José Ramírez, Josh Naylor, Óscar González and Andrés Giménez represent a solid top six, but they aren’t particularly imposing. They did add a couple of bats this offseason in Mike Zunino and Josh Bell. Bell can hit, and Zunino has a good defensive reputation and impressive power, hitting 31 home runs as recently as 2021. But Bell is also streaky, and Zunino is recovering from thoracic outlet syndrome, which has killed more careers than torn UCLs lately. The team hit for a 99 wRC+ last year, so I don’t anticipate this turning into some elite offense even if Bell and Zunino have nice seasons.
Frankly, I don’t expect the pitching to do as well, either, even if Zach Plesac is visited by three ghosts and posts a 3.20 ERA in thirty starts. The reason?.
Injuries. Injuries happen to teams. There hasn’t been a team or person in history that has been able to figure out baseball injury prevention, and I don’t think the Guardians are the first. You wouldn’t know it, though. Here’s their injury report for 2022:
Plesac fractured his pinkie punching the mound, missing a month. González missed a month with a strained abdomen. Franmil Reyes missed a month with a strained hamstring. Naylor missed two weeks coming back from his ankle injury in 2021. James Karinchak missed the first few months coming back from a shoulder injury. Luke Maile missed the first couple weeks of the season with a strained hamstring. Austin Hedges missed two weeks with a concussion. Civale did miss three separate months with various maladies. He was able to return and make a start in their elimination game against the Yankees, but that didn’t go great. All of the above were available for the playoffs, even if Civale wishes he wasn’t. The only one who wasn’t was reliever Anthony Gose, who needed Tommy John surgery. His was the only season ending injury. That is also the only carryover injury certain to affect a player’s 2023 status.
That’s it. Cleveland losing Gose was not a major issue for them, as he was a converted outfielder with 27 career innings. 
By contrast, the Twins fell out of the AL Central race while losing nineteen players to season ending injury. Not all of them were crucial, but too many were.
To be clear, Cleveland’s training staff isn’t nineteen times better than the Twins’, and their players aren’t nineteen times less injury prone. They also aren’t nineteen times better at playing through injury, despite what miserable Phil Mackey stans on Twitter might have you believe.
Cleveland was projected for 79 wins last year, but being abnormally healthy has a way of beating projection models. Other highly healthy teams in recent memory? The 2022 Orioles and Mariners, as well as the 2021 Red Sox. Any cinderella-type team usually is accompanied by a lack of IL stints, but as the 2022 Red Sox can attest, that good fortune needs to be supplemented with additional talent or things can go south in a hurry. That’s asking a lot of Bell and Zunino.
As a baseball fan, I hope Cleveland is just as healthy in 2023, because they’re a good product for the sport and their manager is a lovable legend. But a team having its entire squad available minus one fungible reliever in October is unrepeatable, a scenario about as likely as throwing two perfect games. 
The Twins didn’t have enough depth last year and it cost them dearly. But they still somehow came into September tied for first. There is year to year variance and then there is one of the most charmed teams in decades winning the lottery and everyone thinking they earned it. As fun as they are and as good as they look in the long-term, Cleveland will be an afterthought while Minnesota and Chicago battle for the division this year.

Projected Starter: Alex Kirilloff
Likely Backup: Joey Gallo
Depth: Donovan Solano, José Miranda, Tyler White
Prospects: Edouard Julien, Aaron Sabato
THE GOOD
In an ideal scenario, the Twins would be regularly rotating Kirilloff, Miranda and Solano at first base this year, giving the team a pair of young hitting stars along with a veteran line drive machine, and the ability to optimize against any pitching matchup.
Of course, as the strong side of the platoon mix and highest-upside hitter of the bunch, Kirilloff holds the key to that appealing scenario. He's also the biggest question mark on the team in terms of health. 
But if his second wrist surgery proves effective, as he and the team hope, the 25-year-old has the ability to provide ideal production at first base: mashing line drives all over the field, powering the middle of the lineup, producing runs consistently.
We've seen these propensities on display in the majors before, albeit in brief spurts interrupted by recurring wrist problems that completely sabotaged Kirilloff's majestic swing.
Getting that swing back on track would be a game-changing development for the Twins. But it's one they've made themselves less dependent on with the additions of Gallo and Solano. These two could form a solid platoon in Kirilloff's absence.
Even in a very rough 2022 campaign, Gallo held his own against righties, hitting 17 home runs with an OPS+ of 96; in his career he has an .804 OPS versus RHP. Meanwhile, Solano is a reputed lefty masher, having batted above .300 against them in four straight seasons. Both are considered solid defenders at first.
Ultimately, if Kirilloff can't go, the eventuality may well be Miranda as primary first baseman. His defense at third was already questionable before a shoulder injury this spring set him back. It feels like more a matter of when, not if, Miranda will move to first, and depending on how things play out with Kirilloff, Gallo, and Solano, the Twins could be motivated to accelerate that timeline.
Not the worst thing in the world. Miranda profiles as a middle-of-the-order bat befitting the first baseman assignment. But it could have negative ripple effects.
THE BAD
As amazing as it would be to see Kirilloff's swing back in its prime form over a sustained period, that feels like a difficult thing to count on, at least in the short term. To my knowledge, he has yet to even take live BP this spring, much less get into a game, although he's been working in the cages. 
 
Phil Miller had an update on Kirilloff in the Star Tribune over the weekend, and it contained some mixed messages.  
Said Kirilloff: "I still feel it every once in a while, but it's not painful." The "it" in that sentence looms large for a player whose wrist issues have made it impossible for him to swing the way he wants to in the past two seasons.
Said Derek Falvey: "He's on track. The plan is, if he's healthy at the end of camp, he's competing for a spot." If he's on track, then wouldn't the plan be for him to firmly make the team if healthy? We're not talking about some unproven minor-leaguer here. This is Alex Kirilloff.
It seems ridiculous to be dissecting quotes like this but given the vital importance of AK to this club's outlook, and the dearth of information we've gotten so far this spring, we're left with little choice. Taking all the comments at face value, I'm going to assume Kirilloff is on the unlikely side of being on the Opening Day roster, though I'd love to be wrong.
The options behind him are potentially quite compelling, but fraught with downside. Gallo was a star player in 2021, but he was terrible last year, and has played only one game at first base since 2018. Solano has been a consistently solid hitter, but he's 35, and had played zero big-league innings at first prior to last year.
Shifting Miranda across the diamond is a decent fallback, but his defense at first base pretty rough as a rookie, and this would also mean needing to find another bat to replace him at third base. A more inviting proposition if it's an ascendent top prospect like Brooks Lee or Royce Lewis than Kyle Farmer.
Speaking of prospects, the Twins are conspicuously light at this position. It'd be hard to say they have no first base prospects, because in theory they have quite a few top prospects who could end up there – it's at the bottom of the defensive spectrum, after all. But, notably, none of our top 20 from this year currently play there in any sort of regular capacity. 
The most prototypical first base slugger in the system is probably Sabato, whom the Twins drafted in the first round out of college in 2020 with hopes he'd rise fast as an impact bat. Things haven't gone exactly to plan, with Sabato's extreme contact struggles negating the value of his standout power and patience, but he's been playing a lot in big-league camp this year and could be an immediate factor at age 24 if he takes a step forward in the high minors this year.
THE BOTTOM LINE
Rocco Baldelli has indicated that he "expects first base to be a revolving door similar to designated hitter," as Dan Hayes of The Athletic put it. 
"We don’t have a first baseman,” the manager said earlier this spring. “We have several guys that are going to play first base. We don’t need one guy that’s going to play first base.” 
They certainly have options, albeit ones with limited experience. (Nick Gordon, owner of zero innings of first base experience at any level, was evidently mentioned as a possibility in the same discussion.)
Then again, if Luis Arraez's emergence as an All-Star and Gold Glove finalist at first taught us anything, it's that experience is no prerequisite. Tell em Wash.
The upside of this position feels capped without a healthy and thriving Kirilloff (in which case it's sky-high), but the Twins have built in enough floor to maintain a relatively high floor if things go amiss once again with their former number one prospect.

Every team will deal with injuries during the 2023 season, and that's one of the reasons the Twins added depth at nearly every position this winter. Here are the known injuries this spring and how each will impact the Opening Day roster. 
Jose Miranda: Right Shoulder Soreness
Miranda planned to join Puerto Rico in the World Baseball Classic, but a shoulder injury has forced him to withdraw his name. He was the talk of TwinsFest after spending the off-season getting in better shape to handle the rigors of a 162-game season. Last season, he hit .268/.325/.426 (.751) with 25 doubles and 15 home runs, but he tired down the stretch. The Twins are handing him the reins at third base, but his shoulder has limited him to designated hitter duties in recent games. He hit two home runs in a game over the weekend, so his hitting clearly isn't impacted by the soreness. 
Roster Impact: Miranda can switch to first base and DH if Alex Kirilloff isn't ready for Opening Day. The Twins have multiple third-base options, including Donovan Solano, Kyle Farmer, or Willi Castro.
Nick Gordon: Mild-to-Moderate High Ankle Sprain
High ankle sprains can impact players differently, but initial reports are that Gordon avoided a more severe injury. He was in a walking boot following Friday's game and will be off his foot to start the week. Gordon is looking to build off a breakout 2022 season where he was named the Twins Daily Most Improved Player. In 136 games, he hit .272/.316/.427 (.743) with 41 extra-base hits and a 113 OPS+. 
Roster Impact: Gordon was going to get time as designated hitter when the club was facing right-handed starters. He's also the backup at multiple outfield positions. If he's not ready to start the year, another left-handed bat like Trevor Larnach or Matt Wallner might make the roster.  
Byron Buxton: Right Knee Surgery
Buxton has yet to appear in a spring training game after having arthroscopic surgery on his right knee at the beginning of October. The Twins are taking it slow with Buxton while he ramps up for the season. Big league regulars see limited action in early spring training games, and that's one reason to hold Buxton out of these contests. He can get more focused work in the batting cages and on the back fields. Minnesota wants Buxton to play more than 100 games this season, which might mean he sees limited in-game action throughout the spring.  
Roster Impact: The Twins traded for Michael A. Taylor to provide depth in center field behind Buxton. In recent seasons, Taylor has been a starter for the Royals, and he can assume that role if/when Buxton is hurt. 
Jorge Polanco: Left Knee Tendinitis
Polanco was placed on the IL for the first time in his career last season, but that doesn't mean injuries haven't impacted him in the past. He's a player that has dealt with ankle and knee injuries for multiple seasons. Like Buxton, Polanco is taking things slowly at the start of spring training with more time in the training room. In 2022, he hit .235/.346/.405 (.751) with a 117 OPS+ and 32 extra-base hits. 
Roster Impact: Farmer or Solano can share time at second base if Polanco misses time. Two of the organization's top prospects, Brooks Lee and Eduoard Julien, have been praised this spring. Either player could be an option if Polanco has to miss significant time. 
Alex Kirilloff: Wrist Surgery
According to reports, Kirilloff continues to make progress from the wrist surgery that ended his 2022 season. It was the second consecutive season he missed time with a wrist injury. The Twins are taking it slow with him, and he likely will play in spring training games later in March. He is taking live batting practice with no pain in his wrist, which is a good sign from where he has been the last two years. Kirilloff was considered the team's top prospect before his debut, so hopes remain high for his future. 
Roster Impact: He's on track to be the team's first baseman or designated hitter to start the year. Solano, Miranda, Farmer, and Joey Gallo will get time at first base when Kirilloff isn't available. 
Trevor Larnach: Lower Body Injury
Larnach has been dealing with a lower-body injury, but the Twins expect him to play in games this week, including defensive duties in the outfield. In 2022, Larnach posted a 104 OPS+ but was limited to 51 big-league games because of a core muscle surgery. Larnach, a former first-round pick, was ranked as one of the team’s top prospects, and he’s shown signs of his powerful bat. The Twins hope he can put his injury concerns behind him and slide into the middle of the line-up. 
Roster Impact: Solano’s addition initially pushed Larnach out of the team’s Opening Day roster. With the other injuries on this list, Larnach can break camp on the 26-man roster if he is healthy.
Gilberto Celestino: Left Thumb Surgery
Celestino ruptured the ulnar collateral ligament in his left thumb, which has six to eight weeks of recovery. Injuries forced the Twins to use Celestino in 122 games last season. In his age-23 season, he hit .238/.313/.302 (.615) with a 80 OPS+ and 15 extra-base hits. He has seen limited action at Triple-A, and this season was his opportunity to establish himself at that level. It is an important season for him to reestablish his long-term value to the Twins, but now that's pushed back a few months. 
Roster Impact: Celestino was scheduled to start the year at Triple-A, but he's had plenty of big-league experience over the last two seasons. Minnesota can move Celestino to the 60-day IL if they need the roster spot for a waiver claim, a signing, or a non-roster invitee. 
Jordan Balazovic: Broken Jaw
The Twins made a statement when Balazovic became the first (and only) player in the team's first round of cuts. He broke his jaw in an incident at a bar in downtown Fort Myers. Balazovic has significantly fallen over the last calendar year as he entered 2022 as one of baseball's top-100 prospects. Last season, he arrived at spring training with a left knee injury and could never fully recover. In 23 appearances (72 2/3 innings), he posted a 7.68 ERA with a 1.97 WHIP. He ended the season on a high note, but now he will have to wait to build off that performance. 
Roster Impact: Balazovic wasn't in the running for the Opening Day roster, but he is entering a pivotal season in his professional career. He saw multiple starters pass him on the way to the big leagues last season, and he didn't need another setback. 
Austin Martin: UCL Sprain
Martin has a UCL sprain in his right elbow, which means the team will shut him down from throwing and hitting. Sometimes this injury results in Tommy John surgery, which happened in recent years with players like Alex Kirilloff and Edouard Julien. Martin had a redeeming September and showcased those improvements in the Arizona Fall League, where he posted a .936 OPS. He was having a solid start to his spring, and the team expected him to impact the big-league roster at some point in 2023.   
Roster Impact: Martin was likely scheduled to start the year at Triple-A, but he was an injury or two away from making his debut. Now he will have to wait and see if rest and rehab can help him avoid going under the knife.

Ronny Henriquez: Right Posterior Elbow Soreness
Henriquez made his big-league debut last season after the Twins acquired him as part of the Mitch Garver trade. He made 24 appearances (95 1/3 innings) at Triple-A with a 5.66 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP. In St. Paul, Henriquez was five years younger than the average age of the competition so some struggles can be expected against older hitters. The Saints rotation is set up to be loaded with top prospects, so finding him innings in a starting role might be challenging.
Roster Impact: Henriquez had an outside chance to make the team as a reliever, but the team may want him to continue to start. He’s only made 16 appearances at Double-A, so the team could send him to that level to start games.  
Which injuries will impact the Twins the most in 2023? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

As I looked at numbers for Jose Miranda's stellar rookie campaign, something about it seemed quixotically familiar. This gap-to-gap line-drive hitter with a below-average walk rate and a below-average league strikeout rate reminded me of a season another young third baseman had several years ago, 2013 Manny Machado.
This may initially seem bewildering, but give me a chance to explain, because while similarities exist, it’s the (somewhat hidden) differences that highlight the contrast between the two players. But they also point out why Twins fans can be so optimistic about Miranda.
Miranda was never the prospect that Machado was, but they did end up having similar hit and power grades. On Fangraphs in 2012, Machado was given a 60-hit 50-power, and Miranda had a 50-hit 50-power. The difference in the overall ranking had much to do with other tools Machado possesses that Miranda does not. We will get to that later.
For now, I want to focus on the similarities between 2022 Jose Miranda and 2013 Manny Machado. While not identical, Machado and Miranda were aggressive, quality bat-to-ball hitters in their first full seasons. Machado posted a 4.1% BB rate and 15.9% K rate, and Miranda had a 5.8% BB rate and an 18.8% K rate. Their BB/K was 0.26 for Machado and 0.31 for Miranda, so while the rates were slightly different, the ratios were very close. 
The approach of Machado and Miranda wasn't the only similarity. Their line drive rates and power numbers are what stuck out to me. Let's take a look at some categories where Miranda and Machado performed similarly:
2022 Miranda vs. 2013 Machado 
HR: 15 vs 14
OBP: .325 vs .314
SLG: .426 vs .432
OPS: .751 vs .746
ISO: .158 vs .148
wOBA: .329 vs .325
LD%: 20.3% vs 20.6%
Fastball RAA: 2.5 vs 2.3
Machado logged over 700 plate appearances in 2013, while Jose Miranda had fewer than 500, so volume totals will look significantly different. Still, this was a fun thing to research, given what Machado has developed into as a hitter. 
The differences in the seasons are relatively obvious, but we should look at them anyway. First, Machado played his 2013 season at age 20, whereas Miranda played in 2022 at age 24. That doesn’t mean anything in the value of that year, but it means a tremendous difference in what that year means to their future projections. So to be clear, the fact that their years were similar offensively, doesn’t mean that the players should develop in a similar manner. Jose Miranda is not on pace to become Manny Machado.
There is another glaring disparity between these seasons that does affect the value of that particular season: their defense. Miranda's defensive struggles at first base have been well documented, and it seems to be deemed a success if he turns into an average third baseman. 
On the contrary, Machado is one of the best defensive third basemen in the history of baseball. In that 2013 season, Machado netted 27 defensive runs saved, tops among all third baseman and fifth among all positions. His 20.8 UZR ranked first among all third basemen and first among all positions. 
Machado also finished first among all non-catchers in defensive runs above average at 23.2, a defensive stat that takes into account position value, which is a particularly impressive accomplishment given third base is not considered a premium defensive position. For some context, Miranda had -9.3 defensive runs above average last season. He was penalized for being a below-average defender and additionally penalized for playing most of his innings at first base. 
The differences in defensive value, along with the volume disparity, were enough to give Machado a 5.0 fWAR season compared to Miranda's 1.1 fWAR. Still, it should also be noted that Miranda's offensive production came in a much unfriendlier run-scoring environment. Not only was Camden Yards one of the most hitter-friendly parks in MLB, but changes to the baseball and the progression of pitchers also played a part. 
The difference in these factors is shown in wRC+ and OPS+, which consider the hitter's environment. For both of these stats, the league average is 100. Miranda's and Machado's OPS were nearly identical, but Miranda performed much better in wRC+ at 117 than 2013 Machado at 102. OPS+, which compares a player's OPS to the league average, shows the same with Miranda at 116 and 2013 Machado at 102. 
Jose Miranda most likely doesn't have the talent to become the player Manny Machado has developed into. Still, there are enough parallels in their early career hitting performances that there might be more upside in Miranda's bat than initially perceived. I don't want to imply that Miranda will match Machado as one of the premier players in the game; even in Miranda's highest standard deviation of outcomes, he doesn't become the player Machado is. But as someone who began writing this piece a little lower on Miranda than public perception, I am more optimistic about the Twins' starting third baseman for the years to come.

Last month, Twins Daily posted our Top 30 Twins prospects. You won’t find Travis Adams ’ name in it. Of the 10 Twins Daily writers that provided their Top 30 Twins prospects, Adams appeared on just one person’s list, and that was at #28. He wasn’t in Baseball America’s Top 30 Twins prospects. His name does not appear among the Top 30 prospects on MLB Pipeline. MLB.com posted an article that mentioned 11 players to follow outside of the Top 30. No, Adams wasn’t mentioned. 
Adams was not a huge prospect growing up in southern California and attending Palm Desert High School. Several of his teammates from high school are playing pro ball, and more played college baseball too. In a tournament, his team played one game against Royce Lewis and his JSerra teammates. 
 
He didn’t have many scholarship offers coming out of high school, but he was thrilled when Sacramento State offered him because he loved that part of the state and had family there. Adams grew up a Giants fan and enjoyed watching Barry Bonds, Buster Posey, and some of those strong San Francisco teams. 
“They were my first and only offer. I wanted to give the opportunity to them. I was still early in my development. I was still small. I was only throwing 85. They believed in me at a young age.” 
However, he matured, got bigger and stronger, and went to a school with an opportunity to pitch right away. As a freshman, he pitched in 15 games which included nine starts. He made four starts in 2020 before Covid canceled the season. He went 2-1 with a 1.57 ERA. 
Following his sophomore season, Adams played in the Northwoods League for Wisconsin Rapids. 
“That was super fun, getting to travel and go out to Wisconsin and be with a host family. It was my first time playing summer ball and being with a host family, so it was totally different for me. I had an absolute blast. I enjoyed playing every day. It felt like minor-league baseball.” He continued, “The atmosphere and the fans we had there were great. It was a blast with all the guys I got to play with from all over the country and from different schools.” 
He made 14 starts in his junior season and went 6-3. In his three seasons at Sacramento State, Adams tossed 151 innings. He had 130 strikeouts with a remarkable 25 walks (1.5 BB/9).  
The scouts attended most of his games with their radar guns behind home plate. He also went to the combine and met with a lot of teams. He recalls going through a physical with the Twins there, but in general, the Twins didn’t show more, or maybe even as much, interest as other teams. 
“I really didn’t talk to the Twins very much. I was actually shocked on draft day when I got the phone call from them. There really wasn’t much contact between me and them prior to the draft.” 
He was at his parents' home in southern California, surrounded by family, some friends, and his girlfriend. When he got the call from the Twins and heard his name on the online draft, his phone started to blow up with calls and text messages. “It was just a great and blessed day,” he recalls. 
Adams quickly reported to Fort Myers, did some physicals, signed, and then began life as a professional. While he pitched in one game toward the end of the 2021 season, that draft year is used to let those college pitchers get some rest and learn about how the Twins work, the stats and technology they use, and develop relationships with players and coaches. 
He noted that he appreciated the value of the Trackman system over the Rapsodo system he had used in college. 
He specifically liked using the Force Plate Mound to see how his body moves and handles various stresses. Some of the things he has worked on throughout the offseason, mechanical improvements to increase velocity and consistency, are based on lessons learned from that technology. 
He began the 2022 season in Fort Myers. He made 15 starts and went 4-5 with a 3.50 ERA. In 69 1/3 innings, he walked 15 batters and struck out 69. He moved up to High-A Cedar Rapids to end the season and made seven starts. In 31 1/3 innings, he walked 11 and struck out 39 batters. 
To do the math for you, Adams had 108 strikeouts and 26 walks over 100 2/3 innings. He was one of seven pitchers to reach 100 minor-league innings in 2022. His 22 starts were tied with Simeon Woods Richardson, just one behind the 23 starts made by Louie Varland and Brent Headrick. 
Level-headed, the 23-year-old right-hander said, “I learned that you just have to take it start by start. If you have a bad start, you can’t get too low on it. If you have a great start, you just have to be even-keel throughout the entire season. If you get too high on the highs and too low on the lows, it’s going to be very hard on you and stressful.” 
With a solid first full minor-league season under his belt, he entered the offseason with some things to work on. There were a couple of mechanical things that he focused on to help him as he moves forward in his career. 
He throws a four-seam fastball, changeup, slider, and curveball. He says the fastball “will sometimes cut, sometimes run, just kind of do its own thing from time to time.” 
Minor-league camp officially opened on March 1st, but he has been in Fort Myers since mid-January getting himself ready for the 2023 season. 
And now that he has that great control and command, and a fastball that hit 97 mph late in the season in Cedar Rapids last year, don’t be surprised when you see him rise up the prospect rankings at Twins Daily and other places too. 
For more Twins Daily content on Travis Adams, click here.

It encourages us to give into our inherent bias and forget the things that really matter. There isn’t a lot of drama in “this guy is on the 40-man roster” and “this guy doesn’t have options.” But those are the things that matter, not giving up a grand slam on March third. (We’ll get back to that.)
So your best bet for deciphering a roster battle is to start with your assumptions before spring training started, when you were soberly and objectively evaluating the probable 26-man roster. And when I did that (call it version 0.0), here’s what it looked like.
(Green means pretty much locked in. Yellow means I think I know? Red means I don’t know.)
C Vazquez   SP Gray 1B Kirilloff   SP P Lopez 2B Polanco   SP Mahle 3B Miranda   SP Maeda SS Correa   SP Ryan LF Gallo       CF Buxton   CL Duran RF Kepler   RP J Lopez DH Larnach   RP Jax       RP Thielbar Bench C Jeffers   RP Pagan Bench OF Taylor   RP Alcala Bench IF Farmer   RP Moran Bench  Gordon   RP Megill Let’s walk through the changes that are and are not happening, in order of greatest impact.
Donovan Solano is knocking out one of the position players.
When the Twins signed Donovan Solano a major league contract two weeks ago, it likely meant one of the position players who has options was doomed. There aren’t that many: Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach, and Ryan Jeffers. Jeffers is a catcher, so he’s safe. We haven’t seen Kirilloff in a game yet, but he’s supposedly on track to return early.
Trevor Larnach was scratched from the lineup with a lower body injury last week but is supposed to play left field on Tuesday. But if everyone is healthy he would probably be the odd man out. So we’ll leave him off the roster, and put Kirilloff in yellow to reflect the dual challenges of getting healthy and beating out both Larnach for the last spot.
Long relief appears to be a priority.
It’s one thing for Twins manager Rocco Baldelli to say he wants to have a long reliever available for most games this season. It’s another to see the organization align to make that wish a reality. We’re seeing the latter.
Both Baldelli and Derek Falvey have discussed a group of pitcher that could be available in long relief. This is different than designating a long reliever, like the Twins tried to do with Randy Dobnak two years ago. This means having a pool of arms available so if the long reliever  throws 50-70 pitches – or maybe even 30-50 - they can be swapped out with a different option from St Paul for the next game.
This gets around a couple of challenges to the strategy. It allows a long reliever to pitch in back-to-back games if necessary. And it limits the impact of last year’s new MLB rule limiting each pitcher to just five back-and-forths to the minors. With more arms you have more options.
And the Twins have more arms. Cole Sands and Brent Headrick probably have the inside track because they are on the 40-man roster. Old friends Randy Dobnak and Aaron Sanchez might also be options, though that would require a further roster move. Josh Winder and Ronny Henriquez have also been mentioned by Falvey as options, though both are dealing with potential arm health issues in camp.
So we’ll adjust the roster by giving one spot to a long reliever, which crowds the other three guys into two spots. I’m also going to break my rule about overreacting to game performances, and add Emilio Pagan to that group, just because the grand slam he gave up on Thursday gave me a little PTSD.
Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but there might be some injuries
It’s early in camp, so I’m not going to adjust the any of the statuses, but we’re all keeping an eye on when we next see Kirilloff, Jorge Polanco, Byron Buxton, and Nick Gordon in a game. There is no indication that they won’t all be ready by Opening Day, so, again, no changes to the chart. But baseball is a “show me” game, and the color on those spots could change in a couple more weeks if we’re not shown something soon. If any of them don’t happen, Larnach might be back on the roster.
So here’s the new chart.
C Vazquez   SP Gray 1B Kirilloff   SP P Lopez 2B Polanco   SP Mahle 3B Miranda   SP Maeda SS Correa   SP Ryan LF Gallo       CF Buxton   CL Duran RF Kepler   RP J Lopez DH Solano   RP Jax       RP Thielbar Bench C Jeffers   RP Pagan/Moran Bench OF Taylor   RP Moran/Alcala Bench IF Farmer   RP Alcala/Megill Bench  Gordon   LR Sands/Headrick We'll have plenty more chances to overreact before I attack this again. Any new injury is that much closer to Opening Day, as is every game in which one of the regulars doesn't appear. We'll may see some big or clutch performances by Twins players playing in the World Baseball Classis, and their absence will absolutely create opportunities for other players trying to wedge their way onto the roster. 
So if you're disappointed that there isn't more change, stay tuned. The temptation to overreact and embrace drama only gets more heated going forward. 

Saints fans can be excited about the amount of talent projected in St. Paul to start the 2023 season. Many of the team's top prospects are closing in on the big-league level, including multiple starting pitchers that debuted in 2022. Here's a look at who could populate the Saints' pitching staff on Opening Day. 
Trio At the Top: Bailey Ober, Louie Varland, Simeon Woods Richardson
Ober was potentially pushed out of the Twins rotation after the team acquired Pablo Lopez from the Marlins. However, he is only one injury away from being back at the big-league level. Last season, Ober made 11 starts (56 innings) for the Twins and posted a 3.21 ERA with a 1.05 WHIP and a 51-to-11 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He missed a large chunk of the season with a groin injury and has pitched fewer than 100 innings in all but one professional season. Ober will be in St. Paul for a short time with injury questions surrounding multiple starters on the big-league roster. 
Varland is the first Twins pitcher to win back-to-back Twins Minor League Pitcher of the Year since Jose Berrios. The St. Paul native changed his arm action after joining the Twins organization, improving his entire pitching repertoire. As a 24-year-old, he dominated the upper minors with a 3.06 ERA and a 10.4 K/9 in over 126 innings. He got a brief taste of the big leagues at the end of 2022 with a 3.81 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP in five starts. Varland might not profile as an ace, but the Twins believe he can fit into the middle of the team's rotation for the majority of the next decade. 
Woods Richardson has the highest ceiling of any pitcher on this list and is coming off his best professional season. The Twins sent him back to Double-A, a level he struggled at in 2021, and he posted a 3.06 ERA with a 1.16 WHIP and 9.8 K/9. He performed even better after his promotion to Triple-A, lowering his ERA to 2.21 and posting a 38-to-10 strikeout-to-walk ratio. His walk rate had been a concern in 2021 (5.7 BB/9) but returned to form with a 3.0 BB/9 last season. Only one pitching prospect ranks higher than SWR in the Twins Daily Top Prospect Rankings. 
Options to Fill Out the Rotation
The Twins have a variety of directions to go when it comes to filling out the rest of the starting rotation. Some of these decisions will be based on health and injuries, while others will be based on the team's long-term role for the pitcher. Are they a starter or a reliever? 
Josh Winder is in the mix for a starting role, but he just started throwing bullpens this week after dealing with shoulder issues in the offseason. His shoulder has bothered him for multiple seasons, so it might be time to move to a bullpen role. Ronny Henriquez is one of the youngest pitchers on the 40-man roster, and the team likely wants him to continue to start games. Last season, Cole Sands split time between starter and reliever, so his best path back to the big league might be a multi-inning reliever.
Randy Dobnak, Brent Headrick, and Jordan Balazovic are also interesting names to consider at Triple-A. Dobnak missed time over the last two seasons with a finger injury, and he is no longer on the 40-man roster. Expectations don't need to be high for him, but there is a good chance he will return to the MLB level if his finger injury is behind him. Balazovic is currently recovering from a broken jaw after being punched at a Fort Myers bar. His build-up to the season will be behind other pitchers while he waits for the injury to heal. Headrick had a breakout season in 2022, and the Twins hope he can continue to build on that success. 
What are your thoughts on the Triple-A rotation? Which players fill the final spots? Who will have the most significant impact on the Twins in 2023? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

They carefully explain it’s not a mock draft, per se. They aren’t using any intel to try and determine who these teams are taking. They are instead taking on the role of what they would do if they were in these positions.
In this first version, they have the two stud college pitchers (Paul Skenes and Chase Dollander), the best college hitter (Dylan Crews) and the best high school hitter (Max Clark) off the board. This could very well be the reality the Twins face when they go on the clock at pick #5 in July.
In this iteration, Tom Lipari selects TCU third baseman Brayden Taylor for the Twins. Lipari says Taylor is “perhaps the best pure college bat in the country” and that he “will continue to add size and strength with time.”
A left-handed hitting third baseman, Taylor has certainly looked the part in the batter's box in his two-plus years with the Horned Frogs. He has hit at a .324/.457/.577 (1.034) clip in his career including getting off to a blistering .384/.548/.613 (1.161) start through eight games this season. Impressively, Taylor has always walked more than he has struck out. 
The knock on Taylor is that he doesn’t project to have a carrying tool. He may silence some critics, though, if he continues to tear the cover off the ball this spring. And there's been evident improvement already.
It’s not a well-kept secret that the Twins love to draft (and sometimes trade) hitters. Adding another really good hitter to a stable of them provides the depth that all organizations should love.
But who are the Twins passing on?
Taylor isn’t the biggest name (at this point) that was available to them. This scenario would have them passing on Florida OF Wyatt Langford as well as Ole Miss SS Jacob Gonzalez, both of whom could be really good options for the Twins at #5. (You can watch Gonzalez, Ole Miss, and other prospects at this weekend's Cambria Classic at US Bank Stadium.) 
So much can (and ultimately will) change in the next four months. If the draft were today, would you take Taylor?

It’s not exactly a bad thing that the Twins will be looking to usher in a new look given they are coming off back-to-back seasons missing the postseason. Last year, the club was decimated by injuries and the year prior, performance left plenty to be desired. Neither of those teams truly had an identity, and it’s something Rocco Baldelli would probably prefer they get back to.
If you’re hoping that Joey Gallo’s signing means Minnesota will blast bombas once again, you’re likely to be disappointed. Sure, the Twins are hoping he can find his swing, but there is positional flexibility and defense to fall back on for the slugger. Carlos Correa returns at shortstop, and while he can manage the lumber, his game is an all around one as well.
Nelson Cruz is going to moonlight as a baseball player for the San Diego Padres, and Miguel Sano is still unemployed. The Bomba Squad was a one-time thing, and looking at this roster, the Twins want their strength to be pitching.
Luis Arraez was sent to the Miami Marlins for Pablo Lopez, not because the pitcher is an ace, but because he lengthens the starting rotation. Sonny Gray has looked the part of a top arm when healthy, and Tyler Mahle could be more than ready to break out if he’s healthy. Kenta Maeda has previously competed for a Cy Young award, and last year’s Opening Day starter in Joe Ryan may be slated to bring up the rear of the rotation.
For the first time in quite a while, the Twins rotation is where much of the investment has been made. Yes, there isn’t a massive free agent contract in the group, but prospect capital such as Chase Petty, Spencer Steer, and Christian Encarnacion-Strand were all utilized to acquire it. Moving on from Arraez wasn’t an easy choice, but the lineup has enough potential to withstand that sort of blow.
You can bet that Baldelli is not hoping to win every game 2-1, but this shouldn’t be a Twins team that needs five runs in order to hold things down. Last season, the difference between scoring three or more runs was drastic, and the hope is that tweaks to the defense can help as well. The outfield may be able to lay claim as baseball’s best defensively, and that will only further help whoever is on the mound.
Bringing back Correa at shortstop was a must, and while Jorge Polanco is not great in the field, Jose Miranda should be better at the hot corner with Alex Kirilloff possessing Gold Glove ability at first base. Fielding will continue to be an area the Twins look to improve in an effort to help the entire pitching staff.
Down the stretch last season, the Twins bullpen made significant strides. Jhoan Duran got all of the praise, but Griffin Jax has emerged as a force, and Jorge Lopez returning to his All-Star form would be a massive high-leverage boost.
Both in the starting rotation and the bullpen, Pete Maki is going to feel confident running arms to the mound. Derek Falvey became synonymous with pitching when working within the Cleveland Guardians organization. This may be the first time since he has been with Minnesota where he can feel confident in what the group on the mound has been built as.
Not every team is going to have an ace, and although the Twins still don’t, they have as good of a group as anyone could hope for. There are different styles that will trot to the mound, but it would not be at all surprising to see that Twins have the best staff, top to bottom, in the division. Start thinking of nicknames if you must, but this group is going to rely on pitching and defense.

The early talk of Minnesota Twins spring training is not the return of Kenta Maeda or the leg of Carlos Correa, but rather the blistering start from Edouard Julien. The infield prospect put a bow on the chatter by belting two home runs against Atlanta in Tuesday’s 10-7 pretend game victory.
Jason Kornhaber is already mad about it.
“Edmond [sic] is a monster talent,” said Kornhaber, who found out about Julien’s existence on Friday, February 24th, when two-time Jeopardy! also-ran Do-Hyoung Park interviewed him for MLB.com. “It’s unconscionable that this team would hold him back. Are they playing to win or playing with Edwin [sic] ’s service time?”
Julien, an 18th-round pick out of Auburn in 2019, led the minor leagues with 208 walks over the last two seasons. This is just one of the recently acquired facts that Kornhaber has marshaled in Julien’s defense despite not knowing his entire name yet.
“Juilliard [sic] is a generational talent, and the Twins are throwing it away,” said the Farmington beekeeper. Per sources close to Kornhaber, he has also said this about Kohl Stewart, Alex Burnett, Michael Restovich, Deolis Guerra, Anthony Slama, and Matt Moses. In addition, a former roommate said Kornhaber vowed to get a tattoo of MTV’s Dan Cortese on his thigh if J.D. Durbin didn’t record a 20-win season. Durbin finished his MLB career with six total wins. Kornhaber denied the story.
“He’s going to lead Team Canada to a World Baseball Classic title and come back to Fort Myers with a ticket to (home of Twins Triple-A affiliate) St. Paul,” claimed Kornhaber, who discovered Julien’s nationality on Monday.
The Twins have made no indication on their plans for Julien in 2023, but Kornhaber’s anger is already at a fever pitch not seen since his misguided advocacy for Joe Webb as the Minnesota Vikings quarterback of the future.
“I can’t believe they’re doing this to Erwin [sic],” said Kornhaber.

While the pandemic-shortened 2020 season consisted of just 60 games, it gave Twins fans a performance that they had been begging for. Finally, a pitcher was able to break through as a true frontline starter, even if it was an abbreviated campaign. 
Kenta Maeda assumed his throne that year as he twirled 67 innings of 2.70 ERA ball across 11 starts. He established new career-bests in strikeout rate (32.3%), walk rate (4.0%), swinging strike rate (17.2%) and WHIP (0.75). That led to a second-place finish in the Cy Young award competition, and vindicated the franchise’s years-long pursuit of a true ace-level pitcher. 
Or so we thought. 
Maeda took an expected step back in 2021. He was still serviceable through July (4.40 ERA, 24.6% strikeout rate, 7.1% walk rate) but it became clear that his ailment was becoming increasingly more troublesome. He ultimately succumbed to Tommy John surgery in August 2021, and was banished from his kingdom while he recovered. 
Now, he’s returning to the rotation after roughly 17 months of recovery. But what should Twins fans expect from their former king?
Two of the most-popular projection models agree that his per-pitch numbers will closely resemble his pre-injury self from 2021. ZiPS and Steamer both predict he’ll finish the year with an ERA around 4.15, slightly lower strikeout rates at around 22% and a 1.27 WHIP. Their differences however, lie in Maeda’s ability to remain in the starting rotation. 
Steamer thinks he’ll start 24 games and they project him for 150 innings pitched. That raises his predicted wins above replacement to 1.4, which is totally respectable for a starter’s first season after returning from Tommy John surgery.  ZiPS, however, thinks that Maeda will only manage to start 15 games, and will be limited to just 83 innings pitched. This limits their predicted WAR figure for the veteran right-hander to just 0.9 in 2023. 
Upon first glance, it would be sensible that the ZiPS projection is factoring a mid-season role change for Maeda due to an inning limitation. However, they only predict that he’ll make three appearances out of the bullpen, even with the low games started prediction. That essentially means that they think Kenta Maeda will have trouble staying healthy in 2023.
That’s not unheard of for players coming back from an extended absence, and injury limitations are certainly not uncharted territory for this Twins roster. One model thinks Maeda bounces back as a starter, and stays relatively healthy. The other sees him breaking down and only pitching about half as many innings. Time will tell which projection will be more accurate.
Perhaps a look at another arm that recently bounced back from Tommy John surgery can help provide some more reasonable expectations for King Kenta in 2023. Noah Syndergaard had this procedure in March of 2020, just after spring training was halted due to the pandemic. He also had an extended recovery period, as he didn’t return to game action until late-September in 2021, roughly 18 months after his surgery. Even then, he only appeared in two games as a one-inning opener before having another five months of recovery in the off-season. 
Syndergaard returned to full-strength heading into the 2022 season, where he finished the year with a 3.94 ERA across 24 starts between the Los Angeles Angels and Philadelphia Phillies. He tossed 135 innings last year, and though his strikeout rate slipped considerably (26.4% from 2015-2019, 16.8% in 2022), he still managed to accumulate a respectable 2.2 wins above replacement. Syndergaard was able to be this successful by limiting hitters to soft contact – which has also been a calling card of Maeda throughout his career. 
It should be noted that there are a handful of differences between Syndergaard and Maeda when comparing their respective recoveries. Notably, the former was one of the hardest throwers in the history of the game before his surgery, averaging 98.1 MPH on his heater in that time. Maeda, on the other hand, has never relied on fastball velocity, but rather the quality of his secondary offerings. In his first spring training appearance last week, his fastball did average about 90.3 MPH. That’s an encouraging sign, as it averaged about 91.6 MPH in his brilliant 2020 season. 
Of course, remaining healthy is going to be the defining factor for the 35-year-old this season, and for the rest of his career for that matter. But if he can have similar production to Syndergaard in his first year back in action, the Twins would gladly take that. 
He may not be returning to the throne that he held in 2020, but King Kenta is no longer banished from his kingdom. 
What are your expectations for Maeda in 2023 and beyond? Can he follow Syndergaard’s lead in having a relatively successful season? Let us know what you think in the comments below. 

Andrew Morris signed with the Twins for an even $500,000, slightly under the pick value of $533,300. Morris was a fourth-year senior for the Red Raiders, having transferred after spending his previous three seasons at Division II Colorado-Mesa (the same college as one Sergio Romo). In his final season for the Mavericks, he posted a 2.19 ERA, with a 115:19 K/BB ratio in 78 innings. Clearly too good for the competition, Morris arrived in Lubbock with some buzz attached. 
Scouting Notes
As a 17-year-old freshman at Colorado-Mesa, Morris helped his team reach the Division II National Championship Game. After transferring to Lubbock, Morris slotted into a rotation with Chase Hampton (drafted by the Yankees in the sixth round) and Brandon Birdsell (drafted by the Cubs in the 5th round, and previously by the Twins in 2021).
Morris is 6’0 tall and 195 pounds. He has a "tweener" delivery, operating somewhere in the middle of a three-quarter and over-the-top arm slot with pronounced shoulder tilt. His fastball sits between 91-94 mph and tops out at 96 mph with some riding life. It’s likely the Twins will work to add some more velocity as he spends more time in the organization. Morris’s best secondary pitch is a curveball with good vertical break. He used this pitch at Tech as a strikeout pitch but also showed an ability to land it for strikes in the middle of at-bats. Morris features a changeup that has fade but is a work in progress and needs improved command. Finally, Morris has a sweeping slider the Twins will likely work to enhance and develop.
Morris’ unusual mechanics create solid deception in his delivery. He handled the step up in competition well at Texas Tech, striking out 91 hitters in 88 1/3 innings of work against high quality opposition. With a BB% pushing 32%, he’ll need to refine his command significantly if he is going to stick as a starter. Morris has a nice platform, though. A deceptive fastball with good life and a good breaking ball give the Twins clay to mold.
Likely to Start At: Low A Fort Myers
Morris pitched just one professional inning in 2022, a hitless inning in which he struck out a batter for the FCL Twins. He also pitched in one game for Fort Myers in the playoffs, tossing three scoreless innings. It’s likely he spends the majority of 2023 at Fort Myers, getting bulk innings as a starter in his first extended experience of pro ball.
What did you think of the Andrew Morris pick? What do you think his ceiling is with the Twins?
Previous Articles in the Series
Brooks Lee
Connor Prielipp
Tanner Schobel

With not a single reliever added in free agency for the bulk of the offseason, it appeared the Twins were content trusting their internal options for the bullpen on Opening Day. Things have changed, and the Twins have set the stage for a shakeup in the bullpen, at least at the bottom of the depth chart. 
On February 26, the Twins made a pair of prospective additions to the bullpen. In claiming Dennis Santana off of waivers and signing Jeff Hoffman to a minor-league deal with opt outs, the Twins added a pair of intriguing relief arms to fight for low-leverage bullpen spots. Each is interesting in their own way.
Dennis Santana has bounced around quite a bit for a 26 year old. He does enough well to warrant MLB teams giving him a shot, but has enough warts to have not yet found a long term home. His slider is his primary pitch, and for good reason. The pitch not only allowed an exit velocity of under 85, its 41% whiff rate is dominant. His sinker gets crushed despite sitting in the high 90s and he walks a few too many hitters, but his .7 Wins Above Replacement would put him square in the middle of the Twins 2022 bullpen. It’s easy to see why the Twins would gamble on Santana finally putting it all together.
Jeff Hoffman has never really found success in the MLB but features a high spin fastball and a slider/changeup repertoire to help equalize left and right handed hitters. He similarly walks too many, but based on the raw data on his pitch mix, it’s surprising that he’s never put it all together. He has several opt outs if not added to the MLB roster by certain dates, but can be stashed in Triple-A for a brief period.
The bar to clear for pitchers like Hoffman or Santana to stick with the team on Opening Day likely aren’t high. For starters, the Twins have shown that depth is their number one priority this offseason. So much so that they want MLB caliber players stashed away in Triple-A if possible. The current bullpen includes Jovani Moran and Trevor Megill, both of whom have minor league options. It’s possible that regardless of the incumbent’s performances, Hoffman and/or Santana could make the Opening Day roster if they look at all like competent relievers this spring. This would allow the Twins to have options ready to go in Triple-A with MLB experience in the event that things go south early.
Further complicating things is Ronny Henriquez arriving at camp with some troubling arm pain.
Though the Twins claimed no young starters would begin the year in the bullpen, Henriquez was a likely candidate to make the switch in 2023 at some point. If his ability to be on the field is at all in question, it makes sense for the Twins to further insulate their bullpen with viable options in Triple-A. The easiest way to do so would be for Megill or Moran to start the year in St. Paul.
Spring Training performances should be taken with a grain of salt, but they matter more for some players than others. On Sunday Trevor Megill went out and pitched about as poorly as possible on the same day the Twins added two of his possible replacements. He struggled to throw strikes, and when he did they were crushed. After getting one out on 33 pitches, Megill allowed three walks, three hits, two homers and six runs. If the door to utilize his remaining minor league option was already open, he likely cracked it just a bit more. Megill already finished 2022 on a poor note as he struggled to reign in his new slider. He’ll have to bounce back in his next few spring outings in order to not make the Twins decision too easy.
The odds of a bullpen shakeup have likely increased more than we may have anticipated as the Twins spent most of the winter ignoring the reliever market. With another 40 man roster spot to play with, it’s possible they even make another move to bring in more competition for the bottom of the bullpen pecking order. Either way, there are now a couple more names to keep an eye on this spring, and it’ll be interesting to see who ultimately wins the few jobs that are up for grabs. 
Please share your thoughts on the Twins bullpen options in the COMMENTS below. 

"He makes it look easy" is one of the highest compliments you can pay a person when it comes to something so immensely challenging as playing baseball at the highest level. 
And yet, that's Brooks Lee in a nutshell. The 2022 first-round pick has handled everything thrown at him with such a sense of grace and nonchalance that it's easy to see why the Twins keep throwing more.
Selected eighth overall out of Cal Poly, Lee impressed the organization enough with his smooth transition to the pro game that they advanced him rapidly over a two-month span. Following a brief opening stint at rookie ball, where he batted .353 in four games, Lee skipped right past Low-A and went straight to Cedar Rapids. 
In 25 games with the Kernels, the switch-hitter slashed .289/.395/.454 with four home runs and an 18-to-16 K/BB ratio. His performance was so impressive that he received a late promotion to Double-A, where he went 11-for-26 (.423) in six contests, including four playoff games.
This spring, the Twins are showing a ton of faith and belief in Lee. Oftentimes when a prospect drafted nine months earlier is invited to big-league camp, it's used as an opportunity to soak in the experience and acclimate to major-league surroundings. 
Not in Lee's case. They're throwing him right into the fire. Through the first four days of spring training games, Lee made three starts and handled the assignment with aplomb, notching four hits in nine at-bats.
"He’s clearly not overwhelmed with the situation," observed manager Rocco Baldelli after Lee went 2-for-3 against the Braves on Tuesday. 
For his part, Lee says he wasn't quite expecting to get this much early-spring action ... not that he's disappointed. "It's pretty surprising, but I signed up for it. I'm having a lot of fun."
For those familiar with Lee's background, his ability to take it all in stride and enjoy the moment shouldn't come as a huge shock.
The Coach's Kid 
The narrative about a coach's kid with supernatural baseball aptitude can be an overplayed trope, but in Lee's case it is impossible to deny. After starring for San Luis Obispo High School in California, he was considered a top name in the 2019 draft, but withdrew his name the day before, informing teams he intended to play at Cal Poly for his father Larry, who'd served as Mustangs head coach for nearly two decades. 
A 2020 season lost to injury and COVID was followed by an excellent 2021, where he batted .342 with a 1.010 OPS, and then an even better 2022, which featured a .357/.462/.664 slash line and cemented his status as a top-10 draft pick. 
Growing up as a coach's kid creates a deep and unique connection to the baseball field, and the fundamentals of the game. It's apparent to Lee's current manager, who himself was coached by his father as a youth. Rocco has credited Dan Baldelli with developing his love for the game, so he can relate to this special aspect of Lee's makeup.
"He’s a very relaxed guy when he’s at the ballpark," Baldelli said. "He gives off the impression that he is a coach’s son and he spent many, many, many years of his life at a baseball field, and he knows everything that goes on at the baseball field. It doesn’t feel like there’s a ton going on here that he’s completely unfamiliar with."
In particular, Baldelli has been impressed by Lee's ability to process information and adapt on the fly.
"The at-bats look good. He makes really good adjustments during at-bats, he finds a way to get his barrel kind of on a good plane. Depending on what’s going on in the count, depending on the pitcher he’s facing, he’s not a one-trick pony at the plate, that’s pretty clear from watching him."
This crucial quality helps explain why Lee emerged as a top 2022 draft prospect – MLB.com had him ranked as the fifth-best draft prospect ahead of time – and why the Twins were so delighted to get him with the No. 8 pick. 
So far he's been everything they could've hoped, with his initial performance standing out so much that Lee managed to sneak (ever-so-slightly) past Royce Lewis to claim the No. 1 spot on our latest Twins prospect rankings. 
Now all he has to contend with is a troubled history for those who've been in this position before.
Breaking a Pattern of Top Prospect Letdowns
I wrote recently about the track record for Twins prospects who've topped our rankings over the past 10 years. It's a list that includes:
Most recently, Royce Lewis and Alex Kirilloff, who are both grappling with potentially career-threatening health issues as we head into this season.  Austin Martin, who plummeted in the rankings following a tough encore season at Double-A in 2022. Fernando Romero, who fizzled out and never came close to reaching his high-end starter potential. Byron Buxton, whose career thus far has epitomized the disruptive power of uncontrollable forces impacting elite athletes, even when their on-field play matches their promise. Can Lee break the spell? His skill set is so advanced, balanced, and resilient that it feels almost impossible to envision a Martin-esque performance drop-off. Injuries are of course less predictable, and Lee hasn't been able to totally avoid their grip – he suffered a hyperextended knee in 2020 that required surgery – but he's fully healthy and without any restriction this spring.
That differentiates them from so many other players in camp, and has probably contributed to the number of opportunities available to him here in the first week of games.
The natural question now, for The Natural, is what comes next.
What's Ahead for Brooks Lee?
I'm assuming Lee will open the year at Double-A. That's a semi-aggressive assignment on its face, but so send him back to Single-A would feel almost unfair to the pitchers there.
Once he's settled in Wichita, Lee is instantly in range of a big-league promotion, and his showing this spring helps build confidence he'll be ready for the call whenever it comes. "Offensively, defensively, everything we’ve thrown at him, he’s handled it, done it, excelled at it, and he looks good," said Baldelli.
Assuming he picks up where he left off in the minors, it becomes a matter of when and where Lee's opportunity will arise in the majors. The Twins are hoping it won't come anytime soon at shortstop, where Correa is penciled in for years to come. 
The more imminent opportunity figures to come at third base, and it sort of feels like the organization is planning around such a scenario, maybe sooner than later. Playing third would be a relatively new experience for Lee, who played shortstop exclusively in college and has yet to appear anywhere else defensively as a pro. 
He said short is his favorite position, but added, "I love third too." Maybe it's meant to be. After all, Lee was named after legendary Hall of Fame third baseman Brooks Robinson. In the past, he's set his sights on an accordingly ambitious career path.
"Honestly, I think I should be a Hall of Famer when I grow up and be in the talk for one of the greatest of all time," Lee said back in 2021 as a redshirt freshman at Cal Poly. 
These days, he's a little more subdued in his goal-setting. Asked what he hopes to accomplish this year: "Just be satisfied with how I did at the end of the season, that’s all I care about. Haven’t really thought about stats or anything like that, or where I’m gonna be."
Sounds like a coach's kid. And while he doesn't have his dad in the dugout anymore, Larry is never too far away – Brooks says he talks to him "every day." Upon reaching the big leagues, Lee will have the luxury of a more contemporary mentor close at hand.
After Correa exited his spring training debut on Wednesday, I asked for his impressions of Lee thus far. 
"Man that kid is a stud," Correa said, with an added emphasis on the last word. "I really, really, really like this kid. I’m very high on him. Don’t be surprised if we see him up this year, he’s very, very good man. Everybody I talk to about him, it’s high praise. I don’t get impressed very easily. That was definitely a great pick by the Twins."
Just a couple of first-round shortstops who make it look easy.

Entering last season, Jhoan Duran had been a starting pitcher for his entire career. A lengthy injury history made the Twins reconsider his long-term role with the club. He was shifted to the bullpen and became one of the team's most valuable assets. Only some players can be as successful in transitioning to the bullpen, but there are multiple players the Twins may consider shifting to a bullpen role during the upcoming season.
Josh Winder joined the Twins organization as a seventh-round pick in the 2018 MLB Draft from Virginia Military Institute. He made nine starts (38 1/3 innings) in rookie ball after signing and posted a 3.72 ERA with a 1.11 WHIP and 42 strikeouts. During 2019, he spent the year at Low-A and lowered his ERA to 2.65 with a 118-to-30 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 125 2/3 innings. Winder led the Midwest League in ERA and WHIP during the 2019 season. He was putting himself on the prospect map, but then the pandemic took away a season. 
Winder added strength during the shutdown and saw his velocity jump coming into 2021. The Twins had Winder skip High-A coming out of the pandemic, which meant he split time between Double-A and Triple-A. Due to injury, his season started in May, but he dominated for Wichita. In 10 games, he had a 1.98 ERA and a 0.93 WHIP with 10.7 K/9. The Twins promoted him to Triple-A, but shoulder fatigue ended his season after four starts at that level. It was a disappointing end to what could have been a breakout season. 
Season in Review 2022
Last spring, Winder was in the running to win a spot in the starting rotation before the team signed Chris Archer at the end of March. He still made the Opening Day roster to help add depth out of the bullpen. His first five appearances were strong as he limited the opposition to four earned runs in 22 1/3 innings. However, he struggled in his subsequent two appearances and ended up on the Injured List with a right shoulder impingement.
He worked his way back to the big-league level, but his shoulder continued to bother him throughout the season. He went on the Triple-A Injury List in July with right shoulder impingement syndrome and didn't throw a bullpen until the middle of August. He returned to the big leagues in September, but the Twins had already fallen out of the division race. Overall, he made 15 appearances with the Twins, and four were out of the bullpen. He posted a 4.70 ERA with a 1.30 WHIP and a 47-to-18 strikeout-to-walk ratio.
Projections for 2023
Winder is coming off a somewhat eventful off-season. His name popped up in trade rumors because he was the initial trade piece requested by the Royals for Michael A. Taylor. Minnesota balked at that request, and Kansas City lowered its asking price to two relievers, Evan Sisk and Steven Cruz. Both pitchers are considered relievers, and this might point to the Twins believing Winder can still be an asset as a starting pitcher.
Winder also dealt with shoulder issues as he started ramping up for the season, which means he's a little behind entering camp. Early in his career, Winder's fastball sat in the low 90s, but he averaged 94 mph last season and can hit in the upper-90s. His slider velocity sits in the mid-80s, and he throws this pitch a third of the time. His changeup and curve have helped him to keep big-league batters off-balanced, and his increase in velocity makes those pitches more of a weapon. He pounds the strike zone and limits walks, which can be ideal for a starting pitcher. 
Summary
For 2023, the Twins need to find a way to keep Winder healthy no matter what role he fulfills for the organization.
The Twins have worked to alter his mechanics, but his shoulder has been problematic for multiple seasons. During instructional league play in 2020, his velocity was even higher than what he has showcased in big-league action. These totals were in smaller sample sizes, which might indicate the bullpen being his long-term role. His college experience means he will be 26 years old for the entire 2023 season. Winder will start the year on track to be a starter, but his shoulder concerns mean the team should shift him to the bullpen in 2023. 
Can Winder's shoulder hold up to the rigors of being a starter? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 
OTHER POSTS IN THE SERIES
-Ronny Henriquez

In 40 ⅔ innings in 2022, Jovani Moran indicated he is ready to be an impact reliever for the Twins in 2023. He posted a 2.21 ERA and 1.78 FIP in 2022, driven by a high strikeout rate and ground ball rate. Beyond the topline numbers, Moran was great against both right-handed and left-handed hitters. He gave up a .554 OPS against lefties and a laughable .458 OPS against righties. His terrific changeup drives the reverse splits. 
While his strong 2022 performance leaves the Twins optimistic, Moran's severe lack of control throughout his career remains a question mark. He has had mammoth walk rates for most of his career, but the similarly eye-popping strikeout rates have allowed him to remain effective. 
The Twins seem to trust Moran as the second left-handed reliever on the roster behind Caleb Theilbar, and they chose not to add a lefty in free agency. To pay off that trust, Moran must maintain strikeout rates well above 30%, which he has maintained throughout his professional career. He will also need to find a way to keep walks as low as possible, but he has consistently had a walk rate above 10%, which falls comfortably in Fangraphs' "awful" categorization for that statistic. 
Digging deeper into Moran's 2022 with the Twins, he had an elite 32.9% K% and a dreadful 11% BB%. Those are extreme numbers on each end of the K/BB spectrum. He also had a 48.9% ground ball rate, which is above average and a good sign when the ball is put into play, as ground balls are less likely to do damage than line drives or home runs. The high ground ball rate has been consistent throughout his career, almost as consistent as the walks and strikeouts. 
Assuming he maintains the strikeout rate and ground ball rate, Moran is likely to be a very solid option out of the bullpen for the Twins and likely to be trusted in medium and high-leverage situations regularly. However, lowering his walk rate could alter the perception of Moran within the Twins organization and amongst their fans. Bringing it below 10% could help make him an elite reliever and a real weapon in an already talented and deep bullpen.  
In September and an appearance in October, after spending most of August in Triple-A, Moran showed signs of improving his command and control while maintaining his elite strikeout numbers. In 14 ⅓ innings, he still had an elite K/9 of 11.3 and a very good 1.88 BB/9, leading to a minuscule FIP of 1.78. 
The 1.88 BB/9 is entirely inconsistent with any full season he's had. He has averaged 4.6 for his career. However, if he can land in a middle ground between those points, Moran would force himself into the mix for high-leverage appearances and even put some pressure on Caleb Thielbar for the lefty matchups- despite his reverse splits. 
The Twins are relying on Moran being at least a reliable middle reliever. But he can be more than that if he carries his command and control from September into 2023. Then, Rocco Baldelli would have a strikeout monster who keeps the ball on the ground to utilize against both lefties and righties, with minimal downside.
What are your thoughts on Jovani Moran and his role with the 2023 Twins? Can he turn into the dominant reliever we would love to see, or would the Twins be wise to add some lefty reliever depth to go with Danny Coulombe, Locke St. John, Tyler Webb and other minor-league signings? Leave a COMMENT below. 

Kyle Farmer knew he was going to get traded this past offseason. It was only a matter of where. 
"I'm happy I'm here," he said, looking around the bustling Twins clubhouse ahead of Tuesday's game against Atlanta. 
Maybe a little bit less happy than he was at the time of the move. It's no secret that he loves playing shortstop, where he was Cincinnati's primary starter for most of the past two seasons. Farmer was reportedly "blindsided" when the Reds moved him to third base last August, favoring prospect Jose Barrero at short.
“It sucks,” Farmer said at the time. “I love short. I’ve loved short my entire life. It’s part of the game, I guess, and they see me at third. Hopefully I play well enough to maybe play third here next year.”
Well, Farmer won't be playing third in Cincy this year, but he should see plenty of action there for the Twins. He started at the hot corner against Boston on Monday after making his spring debut at his beloved shortstop in Saturday's home opener at Hammond Stadium. He'll get the nod at second base on Wednesday against the Phillies.
Farmer was lined up as the de facto starting shortstop when the Twins acquired him from the Reds in exchange for pitching prospect Casey Legumina on November 18th, and as the offseason progressed, it looked increasingly like Farmer would indeed assume primary duties as at least an interim fixture. Free agent shortstop options came flying off the board while Minnesota's pursuit of Carlos Correa appeared doomed.
As it turns out, this pursuit was in fact not doomed. Correa signed with the Twins in January and just like that, Farmer's hopes of a full-time return to the shortstop position were dashed. But for his part, he doesn't express too much consternation about it.
"Love short, love second, and I also love third," he said. "I feel more comfortable playing second probably over anywhere besides short if I had to choose, but third base comes naturally to me too." 
Farmer also has experience at first base, which seems relevant in light of the uncertainty surrounding Alex Kirilloff's situation, but it's clear he fundamentally enjoys playing around the two-bag. "Playing up the middle it’s like, I’m having fun in baseball, it’s not like a job."
 
He will have a job to do for the Twins, and an important one. Farmer has a pretty good idea of how the team plans to use him. 
"Someone needs a day off or a lefty’s pitching or maybe they put me in certain situations but I expect to play all over the infield."
What about the outfield? There's been some chatter about that possibility, given the need for righty-swinging depth in the corner spots, but Farmer's MLB experience in the outfield is extremely scarce, amounting to total four innings in left field back in 2020 and 2021. That said, he's open to the possibility.
"I haven’t done it yet in spring training but that option’s open," Farmer shared. "As long as I’m in the lineup hitting it doesn’t matter where I play defensively."
And that's what it really comes down to: is he hitting? Farmer's strong splits against lefties are an obvious point of appeal after the Twins scuffled versus southpaws last year, but he might struggle to force his way into the lineup on a regular basis if he's not at least holding his own against righties. Last year he slashed just .235/.291/.320 against them.
Offensively, Farmer said he's focused this spring on using his hips and lower body more in his swing, gaining more consistency with his load move. The 32-year-old admitted that as he gets older, it takes him a bit longer to find his timing and get in a groove. Luckily (for him, not us), there's still plenty of spring left.
Under control for two more seasons, Farmer has the ability to impact the Twins in a range of different ways, especially if his work at the plate leads to an improvement upon his sub-par overall career OPS+ of 85. (For comparison, Max Kepler finished at 93 in a career-worst 2022 season.)
One intriguing tool in his defensive versatility kit that hasn't yet been discussed? Farmer originally came up as a catcher, and played more than 80 innings there as recently as 2019. The Twins are a little iffy on catching depth beyond Christian Vázquez and Ryan Jeffers, so Farmer's experience there feels somewhat relevant, separating him from your standard "emergency catcher."
To be clear, the Twins are still treating him as such. Rocco Baldelli was assertive in stating that Farmer is only a break-the-glass option as opposed to a third catcher – "He will catch in an emergency and that’s it." Still, it's awfully nice to have someone in that role who is a legit backstop, and it takes away any level of hesitation about carrying only two catchers on the roster, or DH-ing one of Vázquez and Jeffers against lefties.
Compared to catching, Baldelli was a bit less rigid on the idea of Farmer getting some time in the outfield, although it doesn't sound like he's planning around it. 
"I don’t think so," the manager said when asked if he anticipated any appearances from Farmer in the outfield this spring. "We generally will make adjustments the last couple weeks of spring training depending on what the roster looks like or any injury concerns around the team, and then if someone has to get some extra work or go play some positions they haven’t, we’ll do that at that point."
Incidentally, Trevor Larnach was scratched from Tuesday's game with lower-body soreness. Meanwhile, the third baseman Miranda has only been able to play DH so far this spring due to a throwing shoulder issue, and we still have yet to see second baseman Jorge Polanco in a spring game as he works back from a knee injury. Carlos Correa is slated to make his Grapefruit League debut at shortstop on Wednesday, serving as Farmer's double-play partner, but injury concerns will inevitably loom over him and his ankle. As we've discussed, the first base and catcher positions have their own question marks.
Given all of this, it's easy to see how the flexible Farmer – who's been very durable (he would've ranked third on the Twins in plate appearances last year, and fourth in 2021) – is an extremely nice piece of have on hand, with improved offense almost feeling like a bonus on top of what he can provide with his glove all over the field.
For a team that was so often forced to use players out of position or push them beyond their station last year, Farmer is a fantastic roster fit. A floor-raising player like him might not be the most exciting, but following a season where the bottom fell out, it's a vital necessity.

The Twins triumphed over the Atlanta Braves, 10-7, in Hammond Stadium in Fort Myers on Tuesday afternoon. It was Tyler Mahle's first game since shoulder fatigue shut down his 2022 season, but his stuff looked great, with velocity exceeding last year's average fastball velocity. The Twins jumped on an early lead thanks to two infielders - Edouard Julien and Willi Castro - who are likely slated for St. Paul. But the postgame talk with manager Rocco Baldelli revealed some injuries that were reflected in the game's lineup. John Bonnes has the details from the game.
twins-braves-landscape.mp4  
 

After getting back from Monday's 4-1 loss to the Red Sox at JetBlue Park, I sat down to record some thoughts from the game, touching on topics such as:
Pablo López's strong Twins debut, in which he struck out three over two scoreless frames. Jorgé López's slightly less impressive spring training debut, which was marred by command issues but did see him touch 97 MPH on the gun. (Which he was pleasantly surprised with.) A good day for Max Kepler, who batted leadoff and managed to sneak a ground ball single past the now-limited infield shift. A smattering of thoughts on other players like Austin Martin, Nick Gordon, and Red Sox starter Kutter Crawford who has an 80-grade pitcher name. I also for some reason attempted to improvise a theme song for this newly developed audio diary feature, and that didn't go so well. If you wish to avoid it, I recommend skipping the first 10 seconds or so.
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