Ncgo4

Remember, the Twins had a single crazy month last year or they would have drafted 1st or 2nd again. We've replaced Hunter in right with a 270-300 lb guy who doesn't want to be there. In our big move we replaced Sano as DH with 30 year old Korean. Oh, yeah, we put a very slick fielder in center, a fielder who in 2 years hasn't hit his weight...and he's skinny. Finally, we did absolutely nothing to improve a very bad bull pen. I thought we'd be better. Why did I think that?

Sano is big, REALLY big. Possibly the biggest OF ever in MLB. Putting him in right field where he will necessarily be required to run will take a huge toll on his over sized body. I expect him to get injured but at the minimum have it affect his hitting. Until he gets to DH or 1B, I expect him to be a shell of what he was at the plate last year. Thus may just be the dumbest move this year in baseball with the potential to be a disaster. If he blows out a knee look for him to show up next year weighing 320.

The most neglected issue with Sano in RF is that he will get beaten up. He's 270 lbs and fast, a recipe for disaster. I saw him in spring training and he did not look in shape...at all. As much as I hate to say it, we should not be surprised when we see him injured, maybe soon. It's the stupidest decision on the part of the Twins, since they let Mauer dictate that he stay as a catcher after he started racking up injuries. We continued to see our best hitter get the crap beaten out of him and now, while still relatively young, he's a shell of what he was. That's on the Twins, Sano could be, too. I sure hope I'm wrong.

I think that next to Rosario, who I think is going to have a major breakout year, Buxton is going to shine. First, he's going to be a defensive wonder kind. Secondly, he's going to figure out major league hitting as he has done throughout the minors...struggle for a while, then look out! Because of his defense he's going to be a major + player. With Rosario's fielding and arm in left and Buck in center, the Twins will have 2/3rds of a real shut down outfield.

I think I'm probably nuts, but I have a feeling I can't escape that Rosario, not Sano, Park, Kepler or Buxton is going to be this year's breakout story.

Sano will become a great, great Twin's star. But most likely not this year. He will continue to be pitched around, almost never seeing a fastball. Instead he will be dealing with junk being thrown at him from every direction. He will walk a lot and strike out a lot but importantly, the slow junk being pitched to him will eventually turn him into a hitting machine. The last third of this season and next year, AL, lookout!

Assuming Max continues to rake in 3-A the Twins will not have a choice but to move him up. Where to is the question. The starters at Target Field will determine that. Sano's fielding in right, Park's transition to big time pitching, Rosario's continued development and Mauer's improvement. First of all I think Sano will be a mess in right field. I Expect Rosario will continue a much better hitter than anyone gives him credit for and his defense is sensational. The questions to me are Park and Mauer. If both play well the Twins may face the question of do we replace Plouffe's .250 bat with Kepler's .300 plus bat? An easy, yes. If Mauer continues as a .260 hitter with no power and modest fielding they may have to move Park to first, Kepler to right and Sano to DH. What a dream defensive outfield we would have then. The issue then, of course, is a $ bazillion guy on the bench. When is the last time our Twins have had a potential problem of too much talent.

Why does everyone question Rosario's stat line, based largely on too many k's and not enough walks? At the same time everyone accepts Sano's stats as a true indication of where he will be despite a large number of K's and a bizarre high number of walks. My guess is that it is almost equally likely that Sano's rate of walks and Rosario's rate of K's will both decline. This could be a real issue for a sophomore jinx for Sano. I personally think each will have decent year and look forward to watching it unfold.

Is it just me or is this the most critical Spring Training in memory for our Twins? I don't ever remember as many questions about starting positions and roster spots ever. In fact I don't remember any ST when we had 20% as many questions. The potential new players include: Byung Ho Park, A B Walker, Max Kepler, Ken Vargas, Byron Buxton, Oswaldo Arcia, Jorge Polanco, Jose Berrios, Nick Burdi, JT Chargois, Trevor Maye, Alex Meyer and Taylor Rogers. There are others. Some of these are currently on the roster in a kind of limbo status and some are long shots to be on the team. All of them have someone(s) in front of them on the roster. Any of them could have a spring training or early minor league season that might make them a compelling call up to the parent. This means that the possibility exists that the Twins may have to decide if they need to eat some large contracts to improve the team. In addition there are current front line players that may not perform in their current positions at levels considered adequate. This could include Mauer, Escobar, Rosario, Dozier and several pitchers. A crazy number of questions and a GM that hasn't been real quick to pull the trigger. The most interesting watch, maybe ever. Can hardly wait until I get down to Ft. Myers in March.

The key to all of this is Mauer. If Joe is a bust in spring training and through the first few weeks of the season and if Kepler, Buxton, Park, Sano and Rosario look they must be in the lineup it puts Molly in a position where he has to make real decisions. If Kepler, for example just DEMANDS a spot in the Line up then there just might be no spot for a very marginal fielding, marginal average and no power 1st baseman. I've said it before, but I really believe Mauer's salary is like the water or heating bill. It's a utility, ust something you have to pay. The precious commodity isn't his salary, it's his spot in the lineup. Any 3 of Park, Sano, Buxton, Rosario and Kepler, if really performing could easily combine to make him an in-lineup liability. All 5 of them really performing and Plouffe could join Mauer on that list. Realistically, however, good performances by 3 of the 5 would be terrific. 4 or 5 would be Christmas.

The twins are an unusual team this year. We have good players at every field position except catching. We don't have a "STAR" at any. This includes Sano, who very well may become a star but isn't after his limited MLB experience. In every other single position we have good but only average or slightly above average players. If any one of them takes a step back they are a liability. The most likely to do this? Rosario, Dozier and Escobar, in my opinion. If any one of them breaks further out they become a "Star". Likely to do so, Sano, Mauer and Escobar. Escobar is on both lists because his projection last year was much less than where he ended. If he demonstrates that last year is where he really is then he is clearly one of the leading shortstops in the American League. If he steps back, he's a liability. We also don't need one of these to fall on their face to create an opening. If Buxton or Max really steps up there is no reason not to replace an average player with someone that is proving to be a Star. Of course, this is the Twins we're talking about.

I like your analysis here. One thing in the back of my mind is what if there's another breakout or breakdown? For example, what if Max K hits .375 in spring training and then starts the first 3 weeks in Rochester the same way? If Sano is kind of lost in right field and Plouffe is hitting poorly at third do they make a move with all three? How soon? Also what if Walker is on on fire in Rochester (a HR every 10-12 AB and plenty of RBI's) and has his strike out number down a bunch? How long before the Twins make a move with him? The Twins are in an unusual situation. They have adequate players in the lineup. They also have young guys in the minors that really could break out this year. Break out well beyond "adequate". Both in the field and on the mound. This would be the situation that I fear the Twins might not react to very well.

I guess we know why we can love and hate our Twins GM at the same time, eh? We can express our opinions but he has to act on his.

I don't have a lot of understanding about this heredity stuff we hear about with Nick Gordon. I understand he should have had a better understanding of the fundamentals, from sitting next to his father watching the game. But a stopwatch and statistics should quickly put an end to the, "He's out of She Bang by Man-of-War" kinds of talk. Certainly when he's 14 years old it should absolutely dictate that scouts should be watching him. But after 2 years in professional ball, does someone really believe he has a better than average chance than other 20 year olds of exceeding his Sabermetrics indications? I think his potential and upside is still pretty terrific, but the required reference to his family tree seems a little silly by now. I certainly hope he isn't promoted above prospects with better performance because of his father and brother and I'm not sure that that's true.

I'm not going to include a complete list but I think we're going to have 3 players that will have very big moves up the chart this year. 1. Lewis Thorpe. A healthy year and he could just light things up. An Australian to room with our German. 2. Kohl Stewart. I expect him to forget about being a 17 option pitcher (I'm surprised he hasn't experimented with a grease ball, the Blooper and a knuckler, or has he) and concentrate in his fastball and slider and begin to really ratchet up the K's. If so he could be a big happy face. 3. Engelb Vielma. I think that by the end of the year we will have forgotten about Nick Gordon, except to wonder where we'll move him, and all of us will be talking about this shortstop. But then again I thought they should have saved a little of Berrios' innings for a late season call-up so what do I know?

I noticed him in spring training during infield workouts. Thought he might be someone's kid when he walked on the field. There is no way he was 160 lbs. I would have guessed 130, but watching him in the midst of a whole bunch of professional players probably shrunk him a bunch. It also didn't take long to realize he was a human vacuum cleaner in the infield. You said he's working in his strength this off season. If he could put on 10 lbs of muscle he could really be even more interesting. Looking at his SB numbers he's certainly got speed and base sense. He also had more BB's than anyone else at his average or above at his level. If he demonstrates that the last half of the season is now how he can hit, he could really rocket up the prospect list. Engelb will be one of the 2 or 3 people I will look up first every morning this upcoming season. Thanks so much got the post.

I would be shocked if the Twins would even consider a renegotiation until his weight is in order and remains so for a pt least a full year.

When he came back a few weeks ago, they were going to weigh him and had to go to a truck stop. Needed to get him away from Mamma's home cookin'. As massive as he is, weather it's 260 or 300, he doesn't appear to be obese as much as he just looks huge. I'd really like to hear what his body fat % is.

A new era has not begun, it might sometime next year, but it's a long shot. First, Sano is a good bet. But he's coming off a grand total of 80 good games. A fairly good indication, but only that. Second, Park is an OK bet. But he's coming from Korea this makes it a strong iffy at best. Third, Buxton is a long shot at best. He's been unable to demonstrate any ability to hit ML pitching. Plus he's injury prone. Make that a very, very long shot. All of this is compounded by a Twins executive suite that could just do about anything. On the upside, if these three can live up to the Twin's fan's dreams, we could be approaching Nervana.

Wow! Nice to see. A real classy young man. Wonder if the twins could send him a big check with the proviso that he takes Sano into his home and into his off season fitness program.

Jeeze, a rumor that our 280 lb rookie might have gotten injured playing 3rd base. Who'd a thunk? Silly rumors aside I'll be interested to hear what actually brought him back to the US. Everyone, in my opinion, is waaaaay too optimistic about his 2016 upcoming season. I have no doubt about his sure fire stardom, but 80 games is way too soon to draw conclusions on 2016. It will be, after all, his dreaded Sophomore season. He has a lot more to learn about ML pitching than patience. It scares me to death that they might also put him into a totally strange place in the field. Hopefully this is the GM raising the price on Plouffe.

I have a different take on Mauer. I look at his $23 million salary as a Twin's fixed cost, sort of like the bill for watering the outfield grass (except a lot more money). They cannot get rid of it by negotiating a buy out with Mauer (why would he?) and they can't very likely trade it away. The variable expense Joe Mauer presents is a roster spot or at the very least a starting line up spot. if you accept this, then the only question becomes, what gets the most bang into the line up? And the question then is what does it take to move a .270 non power hitting, modestly adequate fielder out of the line up? First, Sano is not going to the outfield. The Twins are not crazy enough to take a very promising 1/2 season rookie just learning to hit MLB pitching and put him into a position where he also must learn a new position. Also if they spend $5 million to $8 million per year on Mr. Park they are not going to keep him out of the line up either. I think the real variables are Buxton and Keppler. If they both do well in spring training and go to Rochester and hit .320, they will be called up and no position us left for Mauer, except to pinch hit. A very good dilemma for the Twins to have. This is true even if Plouffe is traded and Sano becomes a fixture at third base.

Thanks for the great work.

Notes on yesterday's game. 1, 2 & 3. Don't make a mistake with an unbelievably patient Sano. He will kill you. 4. Buxton is just barely, nearly, almost starting look like a ML hitter. But he's done this at every level. 5. Suzuki really cannot throw to 2B. Why doesn't everyone run on him every pitch? 6. I hope & pray that our minor leagues develop a few relievers quickly. 7. Oh, yeah, Sano. Don't know what else to say, just wanted his name here again. 8. Buxton + Sano 5-0! 9. How anxious are we to see the Duff's curve ball tonight?

Possibly, yes.