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Possumlad

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Everything posted by Possumlad

  1. Possumlad
    This is an odd take. How many "superstars" do you think there are in the MLB? If it's more than 5-10, Correa is one of them. He had the 23rd highest WAR in baseball among position players - essentially the same WAR as Juan Soto, Lindor, Carlos Rodon, and Altuve. Are those players superstars? He's not Judge or Ohtani, but he's right there in that next group and plays a super-premium position.
  2. Possumlad
    It's temping to see a correlation here, but the best evidence indicates there likely isn't one. Injuries are way up among pitchers, but it's likely due to the fact that pitchers are throwing (on average) quite a bit harder than they used to. Almost hard to believe, but as recently as the 1980s the AVG fastball velocity was somewhere between 84 & 87MPH. 200 innings with a 92-96 mph fastball is a LOT more stress on the arm & elbow than 200 innings sitting 84-87mph. Huge amounts of torque in the delivery nowadays, more than ever.
  3. Possumlad
    100% awesome and useful if that's what it is. And agree with the previous poster: it's useless if it's any version of user generated speculation. Thanks all for everything you do on this site - incredible content.
  4. Possumlad
    Not really much to talk about; is what it is. I think we've all collectively had our fair share of COVID and Vax conversations over the past 2+ years. Not worth more energy or ink at this point.
  5. Possumlad
    I'm always surprised at how much sentiment shifts, even subtly, based on one or two games. Twins offense has been fine this year; they're 11 in MLB in OPS. Keep in mind that scoring & offense in general is way down in the MLB this year; it's all compared to what. Pitching has been great; 6th lowest ERA in MLB.
  6. Possumlad
    Oh got it - I just misunderstood. I agree, he's more likely to hit the market than sign an extension during the season.
  7. Possumlad
    Unless he gets hurt or falls off a cliff in the 2nd half, I think it's extremely unlikely that he plays beyond 1 year under the current deal. The option years are in there to protect him in case he's injured or underperforms, really nothing more. He'll look for an extension for the same reason players always do: short deals are very risky. Bad injury during a 1 or 2 year deal and your market value takes a nosedive. Assuming he stays healthy & plays well, he'll be looking for his 7-10 year deal after this year.
  8. Possumlad
    Fair point as I said above. Maybe I'm starting with a flawed assumption about the return we'd get. And to be clear I'd love if we signed Correa to a long-term deal. Seems extremely unlikely given our history, but maybe I'm wrong there too. But it would be a bummer if he played out his final 3 months, we got nothing in return, and he signed a big extension elsewhere. But hey, it could be worse. We could have not signed him in the first place
  9. Possumlad
    Fair. I'm not suggesting trading him for peanuts... if it's not the right offer, I'd rather hang on to him.
  10. Possumlad
    I guess we just disagree. My assumption is that whoever traded for him would do so in hopes of signing him long-term. If they didn't, then yes I think trading much for him would be incompetent. 3mo of any position player isn't worth much, contender or not. Correa posted a 7.2 WAR in 2021, the highest of his career. So at best, 50-60 games of Correa is worth ~2-3 wins against replacement. If you can get back a meaningful haul, you trade 2-3 wins for it every time.
  11. Possumlad
    Strongly disagree. They need to either extend him prior to the deadline or trade him. They'd be absolutely nuts not to trade him IF they don't expect him back next year. Laying it out this way helps clarify the decision: What would you rather have? 1) 3 months (at most) of Carlos Correa or 2) Whatever haul of big-time big leaguers & prospects you'd get for him No competent front office in the league would choose the former. Again this is IF they don't expect him back next year. If they plan to extend him, hang on to him for sure.
  12. Possumlad
    Not to be nitpicky, but Royce Lewis isn't 20. He's 22, turning 23 in June.
  13. Possumlad
    Lol. Editors, please make a note to never call start "impressive" until the pitcher clicks from 4 2/3 innings to 5. TwinsDr you've made this bizarre point like 7 times in the thread now; it makes no sense, and no one cares.
  14. Possumlad
    Not true in this case. They needed to test Buxton for COVID before disclosing the reason he left the game. Saying "left game with illness" without having that clarity would have created a lot of unnecessary drama.
  15. Possumlad
    Lotta angsty energy on this board after one of the more fun & interesting victories of the year. Not everything always goes according to plan in baseball. While they're seemingly yet to hit a real stride, the Twins are winning games and I'm having fun. If this thread is what we get after a almost no-hit, walk-off W, I'll take it as a reminder not to be hang around after a loss
  16. Possumlad
    It's not really a "problem," as no one in the thread or article is suggesting we should pay him like an ace, or that he'd demand it. 5/60 is middle of the rotation money, and probably right around what Berrios deserves at this point. Maybe a bit more if you're willing to be on his age & remaining upside.
  17. Possumlad
    Yes I did. The second (in particular) indicates that usage/volume is a contributing factor to injuy in pitchers. Of course injuries can happen for other reasons, but it's both logical--and proveable--that more usage increases the likelihood of injury. And this would make particular sense for someone without a ton of usage in recent seasons.
  18. Possumlad
    This isn't really an "in my opinion" question - given his lack of extended work, he's far more likely to to have arm issues starting & racking up innings over the course of the year. There have been actual studies to this end, and luckily the Twins don't need to rely on your apparently un-researched opinion. Two examples of recent studies: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6350667/ and http://harvardsportsanalysis.org/2016/01/predicting-pitcher-injuries/
  19. Possumlad
    Your best overall hitters should be at the top of the line-up - on base percentage is one component of "best," but not the only one. Being at the top of the line-up means you get substantially more at-bats over the course of the season than someone further down. And the goal should be to get the most possible at bats for your best overall hitters over the course of the season. Blindly plugging the player w/ the highest OBP in to the #1 slot--regardless of other factors--makes no sense at all, and would almost certainly produce fewer total runs over the course of the season than a more optimal line-up.
  20. Possumlad
    Seeing as Josh didn't write the column, I'm not sure what any teammates would have to be offended about.
  21. Possumlad
    The point of the original post is that the Twins may produce more runs w/ Donaldson batting somewhere other than #3 or #4 against righties. Slotting someone 3/4 because he's a run-producer and "that's where those guys belong" likely isn't a good strategy given all the options.
  22. Possumlad
    Oh I think it's very much real, but the MLB has no interest in the scandal getting any bigger than it already is.
  23. Possumlad
    This is another crazy video, given everything that's recently come to light. Here is Alex Cora, talking about a series against the Yankees. His discussion of Beltran & his "contributions" to the Yanks is pretty damning: https://twitter.com/JackFritzWIP/status/1217444224377008129
  24. Possumlad
    I'm not sure of corroboration, but Beltran's supposed niece tweeted about the buzzer scheme today, saying that Altuve & Bregman had buzzers on their right shoulders tipping them to pitches. This would make a lot more sense of Altuve's very odd behavior after his walk-off HR against Chapman in the ALCS. On his way to home-plate, he instructs teammates not to rip his shirt off & holds his jersey closed. And then he runs straight in to the dugout and changes in to a tshirt. Here's some of the video: https://twitter.com/MarcFarzetta/status/1217897217584963584 and to the dugout: https://twitter.com/RealShelfy/status/1217908818190962693 Trevor Bauer chimed in today as well, saying he heard from "multiple sources" the Astros players wore buzzers in 2017: https://www.wkyc.com/article/sports/mlb/trevor-bauer-says-he-heard-astros-players-wore-buzzers-to-tip-off-pitches/95-1cddd342-5cdb-42d9-b311-493bccaa47d6
  25. Possumlad
    Post-Donaldson signing, the Twins are in the envious position of knowing exactly where the roster needs work. For the next 2-3 years (at least), they can basically just ignore the offense & focus all their front office efforts on the rotation & bullpen. That's a great spot to be.
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