Shobae

I have no clue about Deshaun Watson because I don't follow american football in any capacity so I can't comment on the comparison here. However, the notion that the worst thing Pete Rose ever did was gambling on baseball is not correct. He is accused of having sexual relations with a minor when she was 14/15. He denies this but admitted to doing so with her when she was 16 and he was married and 34 and that it was legal in Ohio at the time. Now I could care less about legality here, the fact that he admits to engaging in such behavior is extremely vile and sufficient reason to never lift his ban from baseball. Mods feel free to remove this post if it's violating the guidelines, however I feel that it is important to educate people about the truth of Pete Rose's behavior since I have seen the "he should be in the HOF" sentiment a few times in online baseball circles. So we can all agree that Rose does not belong in the hall of fame ever. Source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2017/08/01/woman-says-she-had-sexual-relationship-with-pete-rose-as-an-underage-teen/

Yeah that's true when I was reaching what the front office actually said I was looking for that smoking gun that in my mind I thought existed but all I found where carefully worded open ended comments. So perhaps sunk cost fallacy set in but I do feel strongly that they should have offered more than $285M/10. Though I guess a well written piece should also present counter arguments/limitations so maybe this wasn't a waste of time after all. Well yes that's true, I know Gleeman never said they had more than a 15% chance on his podcast so I should have probably paid more mind to that. Though my rebuttal would be that the twins certainly had the resources to match the mets offer if they really wanted to given the vast wealth ($3.8 billion in 2015 according to Forbes) of ownership. Yeah that's true and I usually try and keep my expectations low but I probably just let myself get carried away thinking we really had a shot at Correa. So probably the biggest error I made was assuming the Twins would not act in a way similar to the one they did which did not match my expectations of how they would operate. Also I'd agree the Correa situation didn't change anything other than showing the Twins are willing and able to spend 285 million dollars or less on one player if they really want him. (Which should not be forgotten in the future.)

I'm sure nobody wants to hear about Carlos Correa anymore so I apologize in advance for beating this dead horse, however I feel like the real issue at stake here is whether or not ownership and the front office intentionally mislead Twins fans about this situation. And if so, what consequences does that have in the future on how we as fans can even trust anything they say regarding their conduct in the free agent market. I want to layout my case here and see what other people think. First there was this pioneer press article where the following was stated: Second here is the sentiment from Derek Falvey: So both ownership and the front office said multiple times they wanted Correa and were trying to get him. Yet every time they would add some kind of cautiously optimistic or mitigating comment. I think I would contrast this with how the Yankees talked about Aaron Judge. Both Cashman and Steinbrenner were adamant they wanted Judge back and were doing everything to bring him back. Obviously the twins aren't the Yankees so I'm not saying they should have acted like them, however what I'm trying it point out is that the Yankees were unambiguous that they wanted Judge and that there were no excuses. In contrast, the twins claimed similar desire for correa, which was always followed up with how the market was an issue. Now with that out of the way my point here is, the twins did not want Correa but rather they wanted Correa on a contract they liked. Therefore by stating they wanted to bring correa back, which to me implies having to pay the market rate, they were intentionally misleading people as to their true intentions. Because had they said "we want correa within the limits of our organization" everyone would have known the twins were out of the mix. So I get that they obviously can't say that but yet they are still selling the fans a false narrative. Now to be fair Falvey did say they were trying to get creative with the contract, which basically means make it a deal the twins would tolerate. So I think it's undeniable that I can't actually prove beyond a reasonable doubt that this happened, rather I am just making a judgement with the information available to me. The main piece of evidence I have is how the twins handled the second opportunity to get Correa. Dan Hayes just wrote an article today stating that Now the revealing part to me is the first part that the Twins wouldn't improve their offer to Correa, the second part is entirely reasonable. However, the fact they would not even state "we will improve our offer, however we need a better understanding of the medicals" is what makes clear to me they did not actually want Correa, rather they wanted him for on a good contract. If they had lost out because of the caution they were exercising then that would be understandable. So, their behavior shows the true intentions here and it does not match what they were telling the press, and by extension fans. To wrap up this already too long post, I think if that's true then essentially going forward twins fans have to assume that anything the front office says about free agents is no better than a rumor on twitter. And until they get a deal done it's best to assume nothing will happen. Now, the reason I made this a forum post is because I wanted to hear other fans opinions on this subject. Was I being too naive and this was always going to be the case? Has this happened many times before I started paying close attention to the team? Am splitting hairs and being overly semantic to try and cope with the loss of Correa (twice)? Thanks for reading.

Well I think a few things, first we don't or may never get the full medical details on what the Giants saw with correa. Second it's possible, in fact good, that doctors have differing opinions when looking at a set of records. Perhaps the Twins doctors were fine with Correa when the Giants were not. To my knowledge there aren't any medical doctors/bio physicists in the forum so I don't thinks its very useful to speculate about the medical records and what could have happened there. Some people have mentioned insurance as a possible reason, seems certainly it would be a factor though I don't know enough about the insurance industry, nor its relation to MLB, to say anything useful on that. What I do know however is that a contract below 300 million dollars was never going to get Carlos Correa signed and assuming the mets deal is made official, my prediction will have been correct. That the twins offer never reached that money signals to me they were never serious about resigning Correa. They knew what Correa wanted something better than the Lindor contract and they knew what the market was like after Turner and Bogearts signed. Then to have the chance to get on Correa again and not moving from your original offer just confirms that for me. I think twins fans were all taken for a ride with this Correa saga. If you look at it from Boras/Correa POV it make perfect sense to have the Twins playing up your market so that you can then get a serious player to come in and give you the deal you want. It also makes sense from the Twins perspective as they can say they tried hard to get Correa and then have an excuse as to why they have lowered payroll YoY when league revenues only keep increasing. I would have been fine with the Twins saying they didn't want Correa at the start off the off season, but after all this noise and circus to then lowball Correa twice makes me extremely distrustful of their intentions from the start.

Now that DeGrom is confirmed to be off the board, according to Heyman, the Mets are now in on his market. Given the Mets owner and the fact they desperately need rotation help I feel like it's entirely realistic the Twins are going to get entirely priced out of the market. If that's the case does it make sense for them to go after another pitcher that's left? I feel like it's pretty unlikely the Twins will get Rodon at this point.

I would easily extend arraez for ideally 6 seasons. I think people here are missing a few things. First of all I don't really know where people got the impression that 120 wRC+ hitters grow on trees from a team with realistically above average position player development (we're not the dodgers or A's). The thought that all or most of Martin, Lewis, Julien and Lee have similar or better offensive production than Arraez is extremely questionable. How many people hailed the days of Kepler and Sano carrying the lineup in the future (who were much higher rated prospects, minus Lee). I think the twins most likely get 1 guy averaging 120 wRC+, maybe 2 if I'm being optimistic. So I'm not sure why a contending team would trade an established mlb producer and replace him with hopes and dreams. Second, on the current active roster Arraez leads by a significant margin of 9% in career wRC+ (min 1k PA). While you can argue Polanco and Buxton aren't the hitters they used to be and have vastly improved, there's still no denying he's a key bat on this team. I think it's realistic to project this to be the case in the years to come. Third is the defense. People are acting like he's complete useless on the field which while he's had some key errors this is obviously selection bias. Actually looking at the numbers tell a very mixed story. Thing with arraez is he just hasn't played enough to have a proper sample for these metrics to be accurate. At worst OAA grades his range (not whole defense) to be very bad at 2b -11 OAA in around 1200 In. At best FRAA grades him as above average defensively overall. Yeah he's not winning any gold gloves but I think he should be able to at least play a solid first base in the future. Fourth, people are really out of touch with the current market. A player like arraez who is in his late 20s when he hits free agency and has a career 120ish wRC+ is not get anywhere CLOSE to 10 mil. Schwarber who shares a decent amount of similarities with Arraez got 79/4 basically 20 mil AAV and now with the new cba and inflation the prices have only gone up. Finally, the aging curve for position players, while disputed, most agree on that the prime years are 27-29. Arraez is going into his age 26 season and of course there is significant variance player to player and arreaz might be peaking at 25-26 but that's not as set in stone as people make it out to be. It's entirely possible Arraez finds a new gear or can produce 2022 level results in his late 20s. If that happens a cheaper extension now will look great. With that out of the way my take is that I'd probably give Arraez 60/6 guaranteed and then tack on some incentives for PA and awards. If he wants straight up guaranteed money probably 75/6, increasing the yearly amount. At that price you're basically getting a 2-4 war player for 10-14 mil AAV which is very good in the 2020s AND you have a home grown fan favorite locked up for his prime.

Not sure were he's getting that from the most optimistic defensive metric (DRS) rates him as an above average shortstop that's all. So not sure where that's from either. Also I don't think I saw this mentioned here but this season Farmer murdered lefties to the tune of a 157 wRC+ in 158 PA, compared to urshela's above average 118 wRC+. So for a team that was starting jake cave against lefties in september he's certainly helpful in that regard. The difference between him and Urshela? Their wRC+ against righties is 67 wRC+ for farmer (sandy leon called he wants his stats back) vs 120 wRC+ for Urshela. So we can tell who's the better hitter here. So as long as we never see farmer bat against righties, unless the primary shortstop (please sign one) is injured this should be a solid pick up. PS: his career splits aren't as extreme but similar, 50 wRC+ difference from his 72 career wRC+ against righties.

I'm quite low on the return for Urshela, guess the upside is clearing the money and 40 man spot. TBD if they put it to good use or not but guess someone better start a prayer circle to the baseball gods that miranda stays healthy because the depth at third isn't great.

I mean it does seem like there are a lot of assistant directors and I'm honestly not sure what the run creation/prevention people do. But I feel like this is just how a modern front office is. But you also have people like the director of baseball research who had a masters in informatics and a combined 8 years of experience working in MLB team analytics. He seems like the type of guy you'd want to have in a front office. Also I can't find this 30 year old direct of player dev, the guy who's listed on the twins website is 34 and debuted in the majors, Twins Daily even wrote an article about him. As for a third hitting coach, well if they can help the players not risp their brains out every time a man is on second, then all the better.

A rare insightful MLB.com article looking at the top 4 shortstops defense this year and how it compares to their careers. The focus is on Outs Above Average though DRS is sometimes used. Wonder if this changes opinions for anyone regarding who the twins should sign https://www.mlb.com/news/which-2022-free-agent-shortstop-star-is-the-best-defender

Yeah I think Sano will probably get that deal. He's going into his age 30 season so not like he's completely washed but given his injury history he will most likely be a bench bat. Though I could see some team trying to make him their project given his age and raw power. Though I have no clue if he's even fixable and what kind of upside they'd be looking for. Glad he's not our problem anymore though.

We all knew this was coming so I won't waste time on the option. I think the real question here is whether or not the twins want to try and extend gray before he hits the market. Personally looking at the projections and the predictive numbers I don't think the twins should bother with it. I think it's pretty safe to say that 2019 was his career year and he will not be getting close to it again. This season people have been praising his era but looking at his era minus it was only 80, 6% better than his career average. His biggest problem is obviously injury related and even on an incentive based deal I don't see the point in spending 10-20 mil on production you could probably get out of two young pitchers.

Lots of interesting takes here about Correa. People complaining about his bat (he was the best hitting shortstop in MLB by wRC+) others about his defense, since apparently yearly defensive metrics are reliable now. I think it would be interesting to look at how many people here were hailing the start of the kirilloff, lanarch and jeffers era in the late 2010s when they were in the system and then we can see how that panned out. We could go back to the Sano, Kepler and Polanco hype train for more comps. I'm not saying that will happen with lewis et al but I wouldn't say it's unimaginable. I personally don't think that these mega deals are great value for teams, however if you want a top tier shortstop then most of the time you have to pay market rates, or pray that brooks lee pans out as expected. Realistically what you're paying for in Correa is a premium bat who also plays the second hardest position in the game. Defensive metrics vary on his defensive abilities. DRS thinks he's elite, FRAA (BPs metric) thinks he's below average and OAA has his range being above average. I think people will have different opinions about where on that spectrum he lies but even if you take FRAAs verdict of him being below average, his bat more than makes up for it. In the likely event the twins don't resign Correa they will have to ask themselves how are we going to replace the 4-5 wins that we're losing from last season. Aside from massively improved pitching or signing one of the other top SS, I don't see any way this realistically happens, sadly praying for a MVP season from buxton (since he already had 3-4 war) isn't realistic. But we know this FO doesn't like to spend pitchers who could actually give you 4-5 wins so that just leaves me thinking we'll have another mediocre team without Correa.

It's not that a team will move him out of being a TWP, rather that he will be physically unable to keep it up anymore for it to be worth it. I mean every year Ohtani continues is unprecedented but for example many shortstops or catcher eventually move off their position because they aren't able to handle it, I think the same is realistically going to happen to Ohtani at some point. The question is that at 32 or 37? But it'd probably be true that Ohtani wouldn't want to take that kind of a deal.

I mean it's possible I think it's highly improbable. The first thing as has been mentioned already is a catcher who is able to qualify for the batting title while also playing enough games at the position to be considered as such. Secondly and more rarely is having a guy with elite bat to ball skills who hits for average. Given the shift in offensive philosophy I think that's very rare with many catchers now being more focused on power. Just looking at the qualified catchers on fangraphs in the top 10 hitters the lowest iso is .137, which is Posey who also has by far the highest batting average. The median for iso is .193 and for avg it's .262 so to me it looks like the future of top offensive catchers is solid batting averages with good power. Also Mauer I would argue is one of the top 10 most talented catchers of all time so I don't think there's much chance we see someone in his league any time soon. Though the only candidate who I could potentially be, Rutchman, is off to an excellent start.